NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 17th, 2016.
NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-27 ATS (+24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
New Orleans at Carolina
New Orleans: 47-29 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Carolina: 14-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents
NFL Week 11
Saints (4-5) @ Panthers (3-6) — Favorites covered six of last seven Thursday night games. Both these teams suffered tough losses last week- NO lost on a blocked PAT, Panthers blew 17-6 lead with 12:00 to go. Carolina is 2-3 at home; four of their last five games overall were decided by exactly 3 points. Saints are 4-0 vs spread on road this season, 2-2 SU, with average total in those games, New Orleans (+2.5) won first meeting 41-38 in Superdome five weeks ago; Saints led 21-3 early on- Carolina tied game with 2:58 left but Lutz nailed 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for win. Carolina is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four played here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Three of Saints’ last four games stayed under total.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Covers.com
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 52)
The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers won't have long to stew following heart-wrenching defeats as the NFC South rivals tangle on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The Saints fell on the wrong end of history on Sunday when they saw an extra point returned for a defensive two-point conversion in a 25-23 setback to Denver while the Panthers let a 14-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 20-17 loss to Kansas City.
"I think (the short turnaround is) a good thing because all you want to do is get back on the field as fast as you can," New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. Brees (NFL second-best 2,992 yards) torched Carolina in the first encounter, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns before rookie Wil Lutz drilled a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining in a 41-38 win on Oct. 16. Cam Newton had a strong performance in his own right with three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against the Saints, but the reigning NFL MVP ignited the meltdown against the Chiefs as his ill-advised pass was intercepted by Eric Berry and returned 42 yards for a score. "What we've done is put our backs completely against the wall. There is no room for error now," coach Ron Rivera said of the cellar-dwelling Panthers, who are saddled with an 0-3 mark in the division.
LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and that line was bet down to -3 before recovering slightly to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 51 and was bumped up a full point to 52 by Tuesday afternoon. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a perfect night for football at Bank Of America Stadium on Thursday night. Conditions are expected to be clear throughout the day with game-time temperatures in the mid-50's and barely a whisper of wind (1 mph).
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both the Saints and Panthers look to recover off of demoralizing losses in week ten. Oddly enough the main reasoning behind the Panthers loss is a continuation of their earlier matchup against the Saints. They've been able to put together two halves of consistent football. Will the Saints find the same success on the road?"
INJURY REPORT:
Saints - S K. Vaccaro (Probable, possible suspension), RB D. Lasco (Questionable, hamstring), T T. Armstead (Questionable, leg), WR T. Lewis (Questionable, undisclosed), LB S. Anthony (Questionable, hamstring), CB D. Breaux (Questionable, leg), RB T. Cadet (Questionable, toe), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable, quadricep), P T. Morstead (Questionable, ankle), DL D. Onyemata (Questionable, knee), OL A. Young (Questionable, undisclosed).
Panthers - C R. Kalil (Probable, shoulder), RB J. Stewart (Probable, undisclosed), LB S. Thompson (Questionable, knee), S C. Jones (Questionable, concussion), DT K. Love (Questionable, knee), C G. Gradkowski (Questionable, knee), LB A. Klein (Questionable, concussion), TE E. Dickson (Questionable, calf), T M. Oher (Out, concussion).
ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. The lengthy score began a string of four touchdowns in the last five games for the 23-year-old Cooks, who leads the team with six TDs and 694 yards receiving. Fellow wideout Michael Thomas leads rookies in catches (51), receiving yards (613) and touchdown receptions (five), but was held to his lowest yardage total (40) on Sunday and also lost a pair of fumbles - his first two of the season. Willie Snead, a former member of the Panthers' practice squad, had two touchdowns on Sunday, marking the first time he reached the end zone since the first two weeks of the season.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest. Kelvin Benjamin looks to atone after his costly fumble led to the Chiefs' game-winning field goal with another strong outing versus New Orleans, against which he reeled in eight receptions on 14 targets in the first meeting. Fellow wideout Devin Funchess had a touchdown reception on Sunday against Kansas City and also had a 17-yard catch for a score in the first encounter with the Saints. Greg Olsen had six catches for 94 yards in the first meeting with New Orleans and leads all tight ends with 50 receptions and 712 yards receiving.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The road team underdog New Orleans Saints are picking up 62 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 75 percent of the totals wagers.
TNF - Saints at Panthers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
New Orleans at Carolina (-3.5/52)
Most teams despise having to play in this spot, facing a short turnaround after toiling on Sunday. This week might be the exception.
Given how these teams lost in Week 10, it makes it easier to just move on rather than dwell on missed opportunities. We’ll remind you. Carolina blew a 17-3 fourth-quarter lead at home in a game where it looked to finally be re-establishing itself as a contender.
The Saints were about to take a 24-23 lead with 1:28 left, but saw rookie kicker Will Lutz’s extra point get blocked and returned for a 2-point conversion in an excruciating 25-23 home loss to Denver. It marked the first time in NFL history that one of those plays ended up being the winning score in a game.
So, yeah, coaches Ron Rivera and Sean Payton can trade sob stories about an unprecedented defeat and a 17-0 fourth-quarter collapse if they interact pre-game since being able to concentrate on a familiar rival has allowed them to move on more easily.
The NFC South rivals squared off at the Superdome in Week 6, where there were no issues with Lutz’s kick as he nailed a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds left to give the Saints a 41-38 home win. That marked the second straight game with that exact score in the series. Brees threw for 465 yards and four touchdowns, breaking Peyton Manning’s NFL record for most career 400-yard games with 15. It remains his most prolific game of the season, highlighted by an 87-yard touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks.
Carolina’s defense has made some strides since that loss since its secondary was decimated by injuries, but there are injury concerns you can read about below.
Newton has had marvelous games against the perennially suspect Saints defense over the years. He accounted for three touchdowns in the Week 6 loss, two through the air and one on the ground. The Panthers benefited from three pass interference calls in that game, all setting up TDs, so you can expect they’ll be aggressive. According to Pro Football Focus, Newton completed just one of his seven throws of 20 yards or more in that game, so he can truly make inroads if he’s more accurate. Newton also ran just once in that game since he was returning to action off a concussion, so he’s likely to be more active tucking and running here.
Carolina’s season is on the line since there’s no coming back from 3-7, which is another reason Sunday’s setback hurt so much. Despite having already dug themselves a significant hole and looking like a shell of the team that went 15-1 and appeared in a Super Bowl last season, hope existed that they would still be able to sneak into this year’s playoffs and do damage. Now, they’ll almost certainly have to run the table, which means pulling off road upsets at Oakland, Seattle and Washington. It sounds far-fetched, but if they lose at home again here, all hope is basically lost.
New Orleans can get back to .500 with six games remaining and move forward with confidence since this would make five wins in seven. Considering the losses were at Arrowhead and last week against the defending champs, Payton would have his group feeling good about themselves.
If nothing else, for the first time in a few weeks, we’ve got a Thursday night offering from the NFL that we can get behind as star-studded and truly riveting.
New Orleans Saints
Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 6/1 to 7/1
Odds to win NFC: 23/1 to 45/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1
Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win NFC South: 7/1 to 10/1
Odds to win NFC: 18/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 60/1
LINE MOVEMENT
As with the team itself, bettors who hopped on that 12/1 Panthers Super Bowl bet to start the season or the 6/1 NFC champ future are sweating their potential pay day floating away. Those who really believed and took the plunge 2/7 to win their division will continue watching with jaws and fists clenched as they have for the past few weeks. Despite a record that's currently worse than New Orleans, the Panthers still have slightly better NFC and Super Bowl odds at WestgateLV SuperBook. The Saints opened at 10/1 to win the division are currently 7/1 while Carolina is at 10/1, which tells you just how far the Panthers have fallen since New Orleans had those adds to start the season as the bottom-ranked team in the division. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Panthers -4, but that number is now 3.5 nearly everywhere you shop. The total opened in the 51-52 range and is now available mostly at 52.5.
INJURY CONCERNS
The Panthers are expecting to have center Ryan Kalil (shoulder), their most important offensive lineman, back in the lineup. Although he's listed as questionable, Carolina is optimistic, which is a major boost since backup Gino Gradkowski (knee) hasn't practiced all week. Defensively, they'll get standout LB Shaq Thompson (knee) back too, but won't have LB A.J. Klein, S Colin Jones and LT Michael Oher due to concussions.
New Orleans won't have left tackle Terron Armstead (knee), but have to be optimistic that backup Andrius Peat held up so well against the Broncos and has largely been solid. Top corner Delvin Breaux (fibula) didn't practice this week and could be a game-time decision after playing the last two games upon returning from a tear. Key Saints special teamer Daniel Lasco (hamstring) will definitely be out.
RECENT MEETINGS (Carolina 3-2 SU, NO 4-1 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)
10/16/16 New Orleans 41-38 vs. Carolina (CAR -2.5, 53)
12/6/15 Carolina 41-38 at New Orleans (CAR -5.5, 50.5)
9/27/15 Carolina 27-22 vs. New Orleans (CAR -10, 43)
12/7/14 Carolina 41-10 at New Orleans (NO -8.5, 50.5)
10/30/14 New Orleans 28-10 at Carolina (NO -3, 48.5)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Brees TD prop going over. Although he's not as prolific on the road, he has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last two home starts.
Drew Brees completions 28.5: (-110 o/u)
Cam Newton TD: (+100 yes/-120 under)
Cam Newton passing yards 267.5: (-110 o/u)
Brandin Cooks receiving yards 76.5: (-110 o/u)
Drew Brees TD passes 2: (-130 over, +110 under)
Cam Newton TD Passes 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Total combined sacks 4: (-130 over, -110 under)
First score of game will be: (-190 TD, +170 other)
Total points: Panthers 27.5, Saints 24.5 (-120/-110 o, +100/-110 u)
PANTHERS AS A HOME FAVORITE
The Panthers are 2-3 SU and ATS at home this season and have been favored every time they've taken the field in Charlotte. Last season, they were 9-0 in this role including the postseason, covering seven times.
SAINTS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
The Saints are 1-2 as a road dog but have played been competitive each time, covering the spread at the Giants and Chiefs in addition to beating the Chargers outright. The under has prevailed in two of those three games and is actually 3-1 in New Orleans last four overall. The Saints were 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) in this role in ’15, losing but covering as a 10-point dog at Carolina.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 has the Panthers as 3.5-point underdogs at Oakland. The Saints return home and have been placed as a 6-point favorite against the Rams.
Thursday's Top Action
November 15, 2016
By Sportsbook.ag
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 52.5
Week 11 of the NFL season gets going with a NFC South showdown between two teams that are watching their seasons teeter on the brink of elimination. It's not quite panic time in New Orleans or Carolina with six games remaining after this one, but the loser of this contest is likely going to have too much ground to make up in the NFC to remotely consider a run at the playoffs. The stakes are getting higher and higher each week in the NFL and it will be interesting to see which team comes out ahead in this one.
New Orleans took the first meeting between these two by a 41-38 score a little over a month ago as they won it with a FG with 11 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams traded big plays and points with one another all afternoon, and it was the second straight meeting that ended with a score of 41-38.
In fact, three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen the winner put up 41 points so it's no surprise to see a total of 52.5 get posted for this game.
Yet, while many believe - and for many good reasons statistically – that we will have another shootout between these rivals, I'm not so sure that will be the case. Yes, both teams are statistically poor on defense and the strength on both sides is the ability to put up points in a flurry, but the stakes are much higher in this matchup then they were a month ago and we should see these defenses step up a bit.
For one, the Saints defense appears to be playing a little better at the same time their offense has been stalling. Three of the last four Saints games have cashed 'under' tickets, and the only 'over' in that span came on the road in a blowout win over San Francisco where it was clear New Orleans let up in the second half. New Orleans is also on a 0-3-1 O/U run in their last four appearances on TNF and have a 2-5 O/U run going on the road.
Meanwhile, as the Panthers try to climb out of this hole they dug for themselves this year, it's been the defense that has been carrying the weight. They held Kansas City to 3 points in the first half last week before multiple turnovers by Carolina's offense put them in bad shape numerous times and cost them the game.
The week before that they held the Rams to just 10 points, and while no one is comparing those offenses to what the Saints bring to the table, the Panthers defense should rise up to the challenge again this week.
We also can't ignore the complete ineptitude the Panthers offense has shown the past two weeks. Cam Newton and company were shut out in the second half against KC, and the fact that they only managed 13 points – with only two FG's in the second half of that Rams game is a huge cause for concern.
Carolina realized in that first meeting with New Orleans that their chances for success decrease greatly when the game turns into a shootout and at 3-6 SU, it is the Panthers who definitely have more on the line this week.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Saints at Panthers (-3.5, 53)
Carolina was on a 22-3 SU run heading into Super Bowl 50, but they have since gone just 3-7 SU in their past ten games. Carolina has struggled on pass defense this season, allowing 7.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 6.9 ypp). They will now be facing a solid New Orleans' offense that averages 29.4 points per game and 6.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 23.7 ppg and 5.7 yppl).
The Saints have also been a poor defensive team this season, allowing 29.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 24.7 ppg and 5.8 yppl). The Saints are also in a difficult scheduling situation having to travel and play on just three days rest tonight, while the Panthers have the advantage of remaining at home this week.