NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 20

Raiders look for 1st win
By Sportsbook.ag

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-3) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-10)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Kansas City -7, Total: 43

The Raiders look to earn their first victory of the season when they host the red-hot Chiefs on Thursday night.

Kansas City outlasted the Seahawks 24-20 last week as a 1-point home favorite, giving the club five straight victories (SU and ATS) and seven wins in the past eight contests (SU and ATS). Meanwhile Oakland failed to score more than 17 points for the fourth time in five games in a 13-6 loss at San Diego, but did cover the spread as a 10-point underdog.

The last time the Chiefs visited Oakland, Jamaal Charles racked up 215 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns in a 56-31 victory. Kansas City is 9-2 SU and ATS in its past 11 meetings in Oakland. In fact, the road team is 18-4 ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to the start of the 2003 season.

While the Chiefs are one of only two NFL teams allowing an average of 17.5 or fewer points per game, the Raiders are one of only three offenses in the league scoring an average of 17 or fewer points per contest. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game over the last two years and 11-3 ATS in road games during that span. They are, however, just 8-26 ATS in road games after gaining 175+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992.

Both teams have several players on the injury list, with the most notables being WR Donnie Avery (groin), WR A.J. Jenkins (shoulder), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), CB Chris Owens (knee) and CB Jamell Fleming (hamstring), who are is questionable for Kansas City.

For Oakland, four questionable players that stand out are CB Carlos Rogers (knee), S Jonathan Dowling (back), TE David Ausberry (foot) and G Gabe Jackson (knee). The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams and football and it’s largely due to the play of their defense. They are the best team in the league at defending air attacks, allowing just 201.6 passing yards per game. They should have no trouble making things extremely difficult on Derek Carr.

Offensively, QB Alex Smith (1,977 pass yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) continues to win games despite not having the arm that many other quarterbacks in this league have. Smith is a game manager and does an excellent job of doing just that. It’ll take an extremely poor performance for him to allow his team to lose this game to a winless Raiders team.

RB Jamaal Charles (692 rush yards, 8 TD) has been in a groove recently, rushing for seven touchdowns in the past five games. He rushed 20 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Seattle last week and should be able to do something similar against an Oakland defense that is allowing 129.8 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) this year.

The Raiders went into San Diego last game and kept it close, but they were unable to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is far from being anything special. QB Derek Carr (2,075 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) threw for 172 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the game, but he did lose a fumble. He’ll need to take care of the ball against a Chiefs defense that will be constantly trying to force turnovers.

The Raiders are really lacking in talent on the offensive side of the ball. TE Mychal Rivera (37 rec, 326 yards, 3 TD) has been their best weapon in the passing game in recent weeks, catching 24 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns over the past four games. He had three catches for 40 yards on five targets in the loss to San Diego.

Somebody will need to step their game up if this team is going to beat anybody this season, and that somebody will likely be RB Darren McFadden (393 rush yards, 2 TD). McFadden has rushed for just 35 yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks and just doesn’t seem to have any explosiveness this season. Still, the Raiders will need to get their ground game going and he is the only one with a chance of producing there. This defense will need to be ready to stop the run against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs.

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Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Raiders
By Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5, 42.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have quietly emerged as a legitimate contender in the AFC, but a loss Thursday night would undo a lot of their current momentum. Winners of five straight games to surge into a first-place tie in the AFC West, the Chiefs hope to keep their hot run going when they visit the Oakland Raiders, who have not won in more than a year. The Raiders are the NFL's only winless team and have dropped 16 straight contests dating back to Nov. 17, 2013, against Houston.

“We’re not giving up. There’s no quit in this team, and that counts for something," said Oakland center Stefen Wisniewski, via the San Francisco Chronicle. "We’re going to keep fighting until the end. I do think that we have a high-character team - a lot of good pros that are going to keep working and keep fighting no matter what the record is.” The Raiders set a season low for points in last week's 13-6 loss at San Diego, one week after setting a season high for points allowed in a 41-7 setback versus Denver. Kansas City's season, of course, is heading in the other direction as the team has not lost since its bye week and made a nice statement with a 24-20 win over Seattle last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 6-point road faves and that has climbed to 7.5. The total opened 43.5 and has dropped one point.

INJURY REPORT: Chiefs - TE Travis Kelce (probable, shoulder), LB Tamba Hali (probable, knee), TE Anthony Fasano (questionable, knee), S Jamell Fleming (questionable, hamstring), WR Donnie Avery (out, groin). Raiders - Derek Carr (probable, quad), CB Carlos Rogers (questionable, knee), G Gabe Jackson (questionable, knee), CB Travis Carrie (questionable, ankle).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s with a 50 percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-6.0) + Raiders (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -9.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Kansas City remains near the top after its fifth straight win. The Chiefs head to Oakland on short rest before hosting Denver. 6-0 ATS L6 vs. AFC teams. Despite not having won yet this season, Oakland keeps avoiding the basement thanks to having played the toughest schedule. Host Kansas City on Thursday night." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Alex Smith's history against Oakland is virtually spotless with a 4-0 record and a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games. Jamaal Charles is coming off a terrific performance against Seattle - 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns - and was even better the last time he faced the Raiders, as he became the first player in NFL history to catch four TD passes and run for a score in a single game. One of the keys to Kansas City's success has been stopping the pass, as no team in the NFL has given up fewer yards through the air this season than the Chiefs' average mark of 201.8 yards.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (0-10 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Oakland is starting a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr, but the bigger issue at the moment is a rushing attack that ranks last in the NFL at 63 yards per game. Latavius Murray, a sixth-round pick in 2013, gave the Raiders' rushing attack a spark last week with 43 yards on four carries and could see more playing time Thursday, particularly with Darren McFadden running 28 times for 55 yards over his last three outings. One bright spot for Oakland has been the play of 38-year-old Charles Woodson, who made 14 tackles - 11 solo - against San Diego and leads the team with 74 tackles and two interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Raiders last eight games in November.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 67 percent of bettors are on the Chiefs.

NFL Week 12

Raiders (0-10) @ Chiefs (7-3) -- Over last 11 years, Oakland is 5-16 as home underdog in divisional games (1-1 this year). KC swept series 34-7/56-31 LY in Reid's first year in KC, after Oakland had won eight of previous 11 series games. Chiefs won nine of last 11 visits to Oakland. Winless Raiders are 5-5 vs spread, 1-3 as home dogs, losing by 16-3-11-24 points in the Coliseum. Chiefs covered their last nine games, winning last five; three of the five were by 4 or less points; they're 6-0 as road favorites under Reid, but this game is long travel on short week, dicey spot for KC. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Five of last six Chief games stayed under the total.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Kansas City at Oakland

In this weeks Thursday Night'r the Kansas City Chiefs can record their sixth consecutive victory by sending the Oakland Raiders to a 17th straight defeat when the two collide in an AFC West matchup. Chiefs sporting the leagues second best scoring defense at 17.1 points/game facing Oakland, easily the worst offensive team in the league averaging 15.2 points/contest it's almost a foregone conclusion Kansas City will win this match-up. Division games are always tough, spotting road points within the division is dangerous and doing so on a short turnaround can be perilous. However, in this case the numbers add up well enough to conclude Chiefs keep peddle-to-mettle covering the 7.5 points of extra offense they're giving Raiders. The Chiefs have cashed five straight as regular season road chalk, have made a habit of cashing when visiting Oakland (9-2 ATS), Raiders have struggled cashing at home over it's current 0-16 losing streak (1-7 ATS).

Chiefs at Raiders
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

In the age of parity inside the NFL, it’s amazing to see a team to start a season at 0-10. The Oakland Raiders sit in that dubious position for the first time in franchise history and are actually riding a 16-game losing streak dating back to last November. The Raiders host the rival Chiefs on Thursday night to kick off Week 12, as Kansas City is going the opposite way by seeking its sixth consecutive victory.

The Chiefs knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks last Sunday, 24-20, in spite of falling short of gaining 300 yards of offense. Jamaal Charles led the way for Kansas City with 159 yards and two touchdowns, the first 100-yard rushing game for the three-time Pro Bowler this season. Since getting upset by Tennessee in the season opener, the Chiefs have won each of their past four games at Arrowhead Stadium, while allowing 20 points or less in each of those wins.

Oakland has actually been a 50/50 proposition against the number this season, covering five times in its 10 losses. The Raiders haven’t covered consecutive games in 2014, coming off a 13-6 loss to the Chargers last week as 10½-point underdogs (the second time they have cashed against San Diego). The six points at San Diego were the fewest amount of points scored this season, while being limited to single-digits for only the second time, but have found a way to cover in those games (Week 3 at New England in 16-9 loss).

This series has gone back and forth through the years, but most recently owned by the Chiefs. Andy Reid’s team pulled off the sweep in 2013, winning each matchup by at least 17 points. In the first matchup at Arrowhead Stadium last October, Charles scored a pair of touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to a 24-7 victory as 7½-point favorites. Two months later at the Black Hole, Charles dominated the Raiders’ defense again with a career-high five touchdowns in a 56-31 rout as 6 ½-point favorites, the first sweep of the Raiders since 2006.

Oakland’s offense hasn’t done much with rookie Derek Carr at quarterback this season, especially at home. In four games at the Coliseum, the Raiders have scored 17 points or less three times, with the lone breakout coming in Week 6 against San Diego, when Oakland held a 28-21 lead in the fourth quarter before falling, 31-28. Carr threw four touchdown passes in that defeat, while tossing just five touchdowns total in the previous five games.

The defense has stepped up for Kansas City during this five-game winning streak, giving up an average of 14 points per game, while the Chiefs have cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past seven contests. The Chiefs have been money on the highway with a 4-1 ATS mark, but Kansas City is listed as a road favorite for the first time this season. In 2013, the Chiefs took care of business when laying points away from Arrowhead Stadium, posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in this role.

How long has it been since the Raiders last won at home? Week 8 of last season against the Steelers as 2 ½-point underdogs, 21-18, as Oakland is riding an eight-game losing streak at the Coliseum. Since 2012, the Raiders are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home divisional contests with the most previous win over an AFC West foe coming against San Diego in a Sunday night game last season.

This is obviously a big game for the Chiefs in the Wild Card race, but since the Broncos lost at St. Louis last Sunday, Kansas City enters Thursday’s action tied with Denver atop the AFC West at 7-3. Kansas City currently has the tiebreaker advantage over New England, Miami, and Buffalo, while two of its losses won’t matter in a tiebreaker situation against Tennessee and San Francisco. The Chiefs have to avoid a letdown here, as they host the Broncos in a Sunday night showdown next week.

Starting with Week 2 (factoring in short rest), home teams are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS on Thursday nights, while favorites have covered seven of 10 times. Home underdogs are 0-2 SU/ATS as the Panthers and Texans each lost in this role, which doesn’t bode well for the Raiders, who have enough things going against them this season. The ‘over’ hit in six of the first seven Thursday night games, but the ‘under’ is currently on a three-game streak.

The Chiefs are listed as seven-point favorites at several books, while that number is slowly climbing to 7½, as plenty of public money will fall on Kansas City. The total is set at 42½, as there is a 40% chance of rain in the East Bay on Thursday night. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Preview and Pick
By: Ryan Mercier
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS – Kansas City comes into Week 12 as one of the hottest teams in all of football. This week, the Chiefs face the coldest team in all of football, the Raiders. Maybe the age-old rivalry will give this game a boost as it will be a standalone primetime contest, but on paper there is no contest. Luckily for fans and bettors, this game won't be played on paper but at O.co Coliseum on Thursday night (8:25 p.m., NFL Network).

The Line: Chiefs -7, Total: 42.5

Line movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and William Hill both were dealing Kansas City -6.5 on Sunday, but those numbers didn't last long. Some books moved to -7 (-120). Totals were bet down from 42.5 to 43. For updated spreads and totals from around Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall....The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC West games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning record....The UNDER is 16-6-1 in the Chiefs' last 23 games against the AFC West while the Raiders are 4-1 to the OVER in their last five home games.

Beating regression: There were many who thought Kansas City would turn around its fortunes last season following up a 2-14 year in 2012. This year, though, it seemed natural for the Chiefs to regress and likely miss the playoffs. Well, Andy Reid and company have had something to say about that.

The Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread this season. What's more impressive is their work since the bye. Quarterback Alex Smith threw a costly pick at the end of the game against his old team as the 49ers beat the Chiefs, who then went into their off week. Since then, K.C. is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread.

Reid will have to preach the importance of division games in this spot. This is a game that Kansas City would probably love to skip and be healthy for upcoming dates with Denver and Arizona. Unfortunately for them, they go into Oakland on an extremely short week.

As far as totals go for K.C., last week barely broke a five-game streak of UNDERs. The number was set at 43.5, as the Chiefs defeated the Seahawks 24-20 to go OVER by a half-point.

Depressing regression: Anniversaries are fun, unless you're the Raiders. This week marks one year since the Raiders' last victory, 28-23 at Houston. Maybe, just maybe, this is the spot for them to stop the humiliation.

There could not be a worse spot for Kansas City, as the Chiefs come off a win against the Super Bowl champions and now have to travel on a short week to the NFL's only winless team. Meanwhile, Oakland played San Diego tough, and there is no way these players want to be a part of dubious history. As usual, O.co Coliseum is sure to be a wild scene this Thursday night, full of freaks and fans, despite the poor season.

At least in the eyes of Vegas, the Raiders do have a few wins. Against the spread, Oakland is 5-5. The problem for this week is that only one of those covers came at home, though it was a division game (against the Chargers).

A lot of the intangibles work in favor of the Raiders, but sadly for them, there are tangibles involved as well. The last time Oakland faced a back the caliber of Jamaal Charles, they let Marshawn Lynch run for 67 yards, catch for 76, and get two touchdowns on the ground. Charles just ripped one of the best run defenses in the league for 159 and two scores, though Seattle had just lost DT Brandon Mebane.

As far as defending the pass, Oakland is last in the league with only 10 sacks in 10 games this season. The Raiders also have the worst turnover differential in football, and Smith's best strength is holding onto the ball and making smart decisions.

Injuries that matter: For K.C., tight end Anthony Fasano (knee), wide receiver Donnie Avery (groin) and cornerback Jamell Fleming (hamstring) are all questionable. For Oakland, rookie quarterback Derek Carr is listed as probable with a quad injury. Cornerback Carlos Rogers (knee) and guard Gabe Jackson (knee) are questionable.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s, mostly sunny skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers lean: The Oakland defense ranks a respectable 13th in the NFL, allowing just 5.4 yards per play, while K.C. is 7th in that department, at 5.3 ypp. Offensively, these teams are on the other end of the spectrum -- the Chiefs are 19th (5.4 ypp), the Raiders are dead-last (4.7 ypp). Couple those stats with several trends -- K.C. is 16-6-1 UNDER in divisional games and 38-17-1 UNDER on grass, and seven of the last nine games in this series have stayed UNDER -- and we have a play on the UNDER.

We'll also offer a small lean to the dog. The Raiders will be up for this rivalry game, and, as outlined above, this looks to be a very difficult spot for the Chiefs.