NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 24th, 2016

MINNESOTA (6 - 4) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/24/2016, 12:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 57-82 ATS (-33.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON (6 - 3 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 11/24/2016, 4:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
WASHINGTON is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2016, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Detroit is 6-14-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games ,on the road
Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Minnesota at Detroit
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Detroit: 14-31 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas
Washington: 4-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival
Indianapolis: 11-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches
Covers.com

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)

Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring

Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.

The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.

That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.

Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)

Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D

The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.

That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)

Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes

The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8 ). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.

That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Minnesota Vikings (6-4 SU; 6-4 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (6-4 SU; 6-4 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Detroit (-2.5); Total set at 43.5

Thanksgiving is always a great time of year for football bettors and this year's triple header is arguably the best three-pack of NFL games fans have had on this day for many years. All six teams involved are coming off victories and in playoff battles, with two of the contests being huge divisional battles between quality foes.

The first of those is a battle for 1st place in the NFC North as Minnesota is in Detroit to take on the Lions, less than a month after these two teams played an OT game that Detroit ended up winning. That 22-16 defeat was Minnesota's lone home loss of the year and they'd love to return the favor in Detroit this week to take sole possession of 1st place in the division.

The Lions may be 6-4 SU, but they are winning with a bit of smoke and mirrors as all six of their victories have come when they've been trailing in the 4th quarter. Results in that situation aren't likely to be sustained over the long haul, but there is no denying that the Lions are much better at home.

Detroit hasn't lost on their home field since a 16-15 defeat to Tennessee in Week 2 as they've rattled off four straight W's in that building. But going deeper into those victories, you'll find that they've beaten Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Washington, and Jacksonville during that run and it's not hard to argue that none of those teams will end up in the playoffs.

Only the Redskins have a legitimate shot at seeing postseason action, and while that was a solid win and Washington has been playing good football of late, I'm not ready to consider them a definite contender as of yet.

Now, obviously you could argue that Minnesota's status as a contender remains uncertain, but with the kind of top tier defense they've got, the Vikings will always have a chance at a win. That defense wasn't spectacular last week in a 30-24 win over Arizona, but the Vikings got a 100-yard Pick-Six from that defense, and special teams also chipped in with a 104-yard kickoff return.

While some will say that getting those points from the defense/special teams is somewhat lucky and ultimately decided the game in Minnesota's favor and the offense still stinks is blatantly ignoring the fact that football games are won by strong play from all three units (offense/defense/special teams).

Minnesota's got one of the best defenses and one of the best special teams units in the league, so coming off the bus with advantages over nearly every team in two of those three aspects simply can't be ignored. On a short week, it could very well end up that one or both of those units for Minnesota turn this game in their favor and that has to be accounted for.

Finally, Minnesota hasn't forgotten how they lost that first meeting with Detroit as they scored the go-ahead TD with 23 second left, only to watch Matthew Stafford move the ball into FG range in the remaining time and the Lions kicker hitting a 58-yard FG to send it to OT. That was definitely a game the Vikings believe they should have had and now they get a chance to right that wrong.

Minnesota came into this building last year as small underdogs (+1) and won outright 28-19, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Detroit. They are also on a 22-5 ATS run after covering the point spread the week before, and know just how important a win this week is to their playoff hopes.

A loss would put them a game behind the Lions and down 0-2 in the season series, ruining any chance of winning a tiebreaker there. There is clearly more desperation on the Minnesota sidelines this week and they should find a way to not only get another ATS victory, but win this game outright.

Best Bet: Minnesota +2.5

Washington Redskins (6-3-1 SU; 7-3 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-1 SU; 9-1 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-7); Total set at 51.5

The Washington Redskins looked very impressive in their SNF win over the Green Bay Packers last week as this team is doing everything they can to keep pace with the Giants and Cowboys in the NFC East. This week the Redskins head to Dallas on a very short week after being involved in the SNF matchup and I'm not sure there is a tougher scheduling spot for any team this season. Throw in the fact that Dallas has won nine in a row and dominating teams along the way and Washington is really in tough this week.

Dallas began their nine-game win streak with a 27-23 victory in Washington back in Week 2 as rookie QB Dak Prescott earned his first NFL victory. No one would have ever thought that the win that week would be the start of this incredible run the Cowboys have been on, yet here they are in Week 12 with a two-game lead in the division and looking like a Super Bowl favorite.

Not only have the Cowboys won outright in every single game since then, they've also covered the point spread in each of those nine victories, endearing themselves to faithful bettors that were willing to back Dallas every week along the way. But this is still a short week for them too and after three straight games against AFC North foes, getting back into division play should add a little extra intensity to this week's game.

Washington has played some solid football since then too as they currently hold the 6th seed in the NFC and will be doing everything they can the rest of the way to at least hold on to that position. A win this week would put them right back in the hunt for a division title, but another loss to Dallas would all but ensure that the only way Washington will get back to the playoffs is through a wildcard position.

Therefore, the stakes are definitely higher for the Washington side, and being on even a shorter week than Dallas doesn't do them any favors.

From a betting perspective, it's tough to try and step in front of this Dallas train that has been cashing tickets hand over fist. Nine straight ATS covers is a very tough thing to accomplish in the NFL and the fact that the Cowboys have done it with an all-rookie backfield makes it that much more impressive.

However, eventually this Cowboys team will get caught by the slightly inflated numbers they have been laying as bettors will continue to ride this train until it bucks them, and that makes laying the points with Dallas again this week a difficult proposition as well.

Instead, I'm looking at this total at 51.5 points and believe it's a little too high. Yes, these two teams put up 50 points in their first meeting and that was prior to both teams getting on a roll, but you can't discount the fact that this week's game is a short week game for both sides and a divisional matchup with the stakes much higher then they were in Week 2.

Furthermore, during this incredible run by the Cowboys, what is seemingly lost in all of it is how well their defense has been playing. Five of their past seven games have stayed 'under' the total thanks to Dallas allowing 18.1 points/game over that span. Only twice in the last eight weeks have Cowboys opponents reached 20 or more points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins be the seventh team in the last nine weeks to fail to reach that number.

On Washington's side, they've got a much better idea how to try and slow down the Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott train this time around and while their defense hasn't been great with five straight opponents scoring 20 or more against them, none of those teams have topped 30 points vs. Washington as they know how to hold the fort when their backs are up against the wall.

With all of the early money on this game coming in on the high side of this total so far when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentages board (89% on the over), I have no problem going the other way as this game should finish in the mid-to-high 40's.

Best Bet: Washington/Dallas Under 51.5 points

NFL Week 12

Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4) — Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.

Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1) — Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.

Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5) — Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.

Armadillosports.com

Thanksgiving Day NFL Betting Previews
By Covers.com

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43)

A showdown for the top spot in the NFC North takes place Thursday, when the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in their traditional Thanksgiving Day contest. Detroit has won five of its last six games to surge into a tie atop the division with Minnesota, which snapped its four-game skid last week.

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matt Prater made a game-tying 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period. The late-game heroics were nothing new for Detroit, which has had all 10 of its games decided by seven points or fewer - with its six wins coming by a total of 24. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played,” Vikings coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence, and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames." Minnesota’s confidence was trending in the opposite direction with four straight losses before holding on for a 30-24 home triumph over Arizona on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Minnesota and, as of Tuesday evening, that line hasn't moved. The total hit the board at 42.5 and was bumped up to 43 on Monday morning. Check out the complete history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (Probable, shoulder), LB C. Greenway (Questionable, personal), S A. Sendejo (Questionable, illness), WR S. Diggs (Questionable, knee), DT T. Johnson (Questionable, illness), CB T. Newman (Questionable, neck), CB M. Sherels (Questionable, ribs), LB E. Kendricks (Questionable, hip), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, knee), C Z. Kerin (Questionable, hand), S H. Smith (Questionable, ankle), RB A. Peterson (Mid December, knee), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

Lions - RB T. Riddick (Probable, ankle), CB A. Barnes (Questionable, hamstring), S D. Carey (Questionable, hamstring), DE E. Ansah (Questionable, ankle), C G. Glasgow (Questionable, ankle), DT K. Thornton (Questionable, foot), LB D. Levy (Out, quadricep), DE A. Bryant (Elig Week 13, suspension), TE B. Pettigrew (Doubtful, knee), RB A. Abdullah (Questionable, foot), TE C. Wick (I-R, knee), TE T. Wright (I-R, knee), LB J. Bostic (I-R, foot), LS J. Landes (I-R, shoulder), CB I. Wells (I-R, knee), WR R. Spadola (I-R, pectoral).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Minnesota’s league-worst offense had another rough showing last week with 217 total yards, but a defensive score and a special-teams touchdown helped make up for it. The Vikings could be without a major offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, who has averaged 10 catches over his last four games and ranks second in the NFC with 67 receptions but is questionable with a knee injury. Minnesota’s third-ranked pass defense will be put to the test but is coming off a strong outing in which it limited Arizona to 155 yards.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Detroit has become increasingly one-dimensional on offense, all but abandoning the run in recent weeks and finishing with just 14 rushing yards against Jacksonville on Sunday. Running back Theo Riddick is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play, but he is a bigger factor for Stafford and the passing game than the ground attack. The defense has been excellent of late, holding the last three opponents to an average of 297 total yards and forcing three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Lions are picking 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals wagers.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys were on the verge of a falling into an early 0-2 hole this season before rallying for a 27-23 victory at the Washington Redskins in Week 2. That comeback provided the impetus for a nine-game winning streak for the red-hot Cowboys, who will host the arch-rival Redskins in a rematch on Thanksgiving Day.

Dallas overcame another slow start to beat the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 on Sunday and maintain a two-game lead over the New York Giants atop the NFC East - with Washington sitting another half-game back. “We’re not going to spend a lot of time on that, to be honest with you,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of his team's tear, especially with such a quick turnaround for Thursday's game. The Redskins have dug themselves out of an 0-2 hole to stay within striking range of Dallas by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 42-24 on Sunday night to improve to 6-1-1 in their last eight. “It’s one game,” cautioned Washington wideout DeSean Jackson. "This next game will determine a lot. If we go out and knock them out, a lot of people will see what we’re about.”

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 7-point home favorites, the line went down to -6.5 on Monday morning, jumped all of the way up to -7.5 on Monday afternoon, and settled back to the key opening number of -7 on Tuesday. The total hit the board at 48.5 and rose steadily to 51 by Tuesday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures in the upper-60's on Thursday afternoon in Arlington.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These have been two of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS, while the Redskins are 7-3 ATS, so combined they are 16-4 ATS. Dallas has been a 7-point favorite or less in every game this season, despite going 9-1 SU. That is one of the reasons they have been a pointspread covering machine. However, the oddsmakers will now have no choice but to start inflating the lines on the Cowboys' games going forward." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Redskins - S W. Blackmon (Probable, thumb), WR J. Crowder (Probable, back), T M. Moses (Probable, ankle), RB M. Jones (Questionable, knee), LS N. Sundberg (Questionable, back), DE C. Baker (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Jackson (Questionable, shoulder), T T. Nsekhe (Questionable, ankle), LB P. Smith (Questionable, back), T T. Williams (Elig Week 14, suspension), S D. Bruton Jr (Out, concussion), WR J. Doctson (Out, achilles).

Cowboys - WR D. Bryant (Probable, back), OL C. Green (Questionable, foot), DE D. Lawrence (Questionable, back), T T. Smith (Questionable, back), CB M. Claiborne (Out, hernia), S B. Church (Out, forearm), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Probable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Doubtful, toe).

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 O/U): Kirk Cousins threw a killer interception that led to the winning touchdown in the first matchup against Dallas, but he is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores while posting a season-best 145.8 passer rating. Jackson returned from injury Sunday to bolster a deep receiving corps that includes Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed, while rookie Rob Kelley has invigorated the ground game. Kelley rushed for 137 yards and three TDs on Sunday and has amassed 321 yards in his first three starts. Washington is sixth in the league with 27 sacks, including four versus Dallas in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Dallas continues to ride the rookie tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, the two main cogs for an offense that has produced 400 total yards in eight straight games. Elliott has run for nine touchdowns and is leading the NFL with 1,102 yards rushing while Prescott has relegated Tony Romo to benchwarmer, throwing for 867 yards, eight scores and zero interceptions in his last three games. Wideout Dez Bryant, who missed more than a month due to injury, had a pair of scoring receptions Sunday and went over 100 yards in the first meeting. Dallas is suspect against the pass, allowing an average of 263.5 yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Redskins last 10 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Skins are picking 59 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 72 percent of the totals wagers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+8, 47.5)

Back-to-back wins have vaulted the Indianapolis Colts back into the playoff picture, but they are nearly certain to be without Andrew Luck when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Luck, who is having another strong campaign as he ranks fourth in the NFL with 2,827 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, entered concussion protocol after guiding Indianapolis past Tennessee last week, and coach Chuck Pagano doesn't believe he'll be cleared in time to play.

Scott Tolzien, who has played in six games in his six-year career, will get the start should Luck not be ready. Tolzien is 56-of-91 for 721 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions in the NFL. Pittsburgh not only snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over lowly Cleveland last time out, but it jumped into a first-place tie in the AFC North in the process. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 146 yards and a score as the Steelers sent the Browns to their 11th straight loss on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point road favorites but news of Andrew Luck's injury drove that line all of the way up to 8.5. That number came down slightly to 8 on Wednesday morning. The total opened at 53.5 but was also impacted by Luck's absense and dropped to 48 on Tuesday. Check out the complete history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - S J. Dangerfield (Questionable, groin), S S. Thomas (Questionable, groin), TE X. Grimble (Questionable, quadricep), RB D. Williams (Out, knee), WR D. Heyward-Bey (Out, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out For Season, suspension), WR M. Wheaton (I-R, shoulder) CB S. Golson (I-R, foot), DE C. Heyward (I-R, pectoral), LB S. Johnson (I-R, ankle), C C. Wallace (I-R, knee), T R. Harris (I-R, shin), G C. Manhart (I-R, undisclosed), T J. Hawkins (I-R, shoulder), C V. Ume-Ezeoke (I-R, undisclosed.

Colts - CB R. Melvin (Probable, back), DT A. Jones (Probable, knee), CB P. Robinson (Probable, groin), CB V. Davis (Questionable, ankle), S C. Geathers (Questionable, concussion), QB A. Luck (Doubtful, concussion), DE K. Langford (I-R, knee), WR Q. Bray (I-R, ankle), LB T. Cole (Questionable, back), G H. Thornton (I-R, foot), S A. Williamson (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Bell has been an all-purpose monster since returning from a three-game suspension to start the season, but Sunday marked the first time since Week 4 that he gained over 100 yards on the ground for the Steelers, who rank 23rd in rushing offense. Bell's success took some of the burden off Ben Roethlisberger, who was held without a touchdown pass in a contest which surprisingly was still in doubt until Javon Hargrave recovered a fumble for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck, and the Steelers - who have won the last two matchups by a combined 45 points - cautioned his counterpart not to play. "I will tell him, and this has nothing to do with football, but just to be smart," Roethlisberger told reporters. "The brain is nothing to mess with. He is young and has a long career ahead of himself."

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Clearing concussion protocol is a huge hurdle for Luck in the short week, and the fact that the Colts don't play again until Dec. 5 against the New York Jets leaves it likely they'll let both Luck and safety Clayton Geathers use the extra time to get well. Geathers also was placed in concussion protocol after Sunday's game and cornerback Vontae Davis is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving the Colts' passing defense in an ominous situation against Roethlisberger, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last two games against Indianapolis. The Colts may try to lean more on a ground game led by Frank Gore (642 yards, four touchdowns), but they rank 25th in the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
* Colts are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Steelers are picking 66 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals wagers.

hey blade have a happy thanksgiving sir you an yours B)

Thanksgiving Day Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Vikings at Lions (-2½, 41½)

Minnesota
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

Detroit
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

LAST WEEK

The Vikings snapped a four-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 30-24 home triumph over the Cardinals as two-point favorites. Minnesota’s offense has struggled all season as the Vikings relied on an interception return and a kickoff return for touchdowns to account for nearly half their points. The Vikings racked up 217 yards offensively, but intercepted Carson Palmer twice to improve to 4-1 at home this season.

The Lions won their sixth game this season when trailing at some point in the fourth quarter, knocking off the Jaguars, 26-19. Detroit picked up a late cover as 5½-point favorites with a field goal in the final minute as the Lions returned a punt and an interception for scores. Detroit’s rushing attack was limited to 14 yards on 21 carries, while quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 278 yards and has thrown only one total interception in five games at Ford Field (none in last four).

SERIES HISTORY

These two NFC North rivals met in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium as Detroit left Minnesota with a 22-16 overtime victory as 4½-point underdogs. Stafford connected with wide receiver Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in OT to give Detroit only its third win at Minnesota in the last 10 trips. The Vikings outgained the Lions, 337-311, the only time Minnesota has outgained an opponent in the past four contests. Since 2012, these teams have split four matchups at Ford Field, as the Vikings beat the Lions last season in Detroit, 28-19.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

The Lions are riding a four-game UNDER streak, while not allowing more than 20 points in any of their past four contests. Since the start of last season, Detroit has hit the OVER in eight of its last 12 games at Ford Field, but five of the past six matchups between the Lions and Vikings have finished UNDER the total.

TURKEY TIME

From 2004-2012, Detroit dropped nine consecutive games on Thanksgiving. However, the Lions have turned things around lately by winning three straight on Turkey Day, including a 45-14 blowout of the Eagles in 2015. The Vikings are visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1995 when the Lions outlasted Minnesota in a 44-38 shootout.

PROPS

Minnesota

S. Bradford – Total Completions
23 – OVER (-110)
23 – UNDER (-110)

S. Bradford – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (+130)
2 – UNDER (-150)

S. Diggs – Total Receiving Yards
75½ - OVER (-110)
75½ - UNDER (-110)

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Gross Passing Yards
255½ - OVER (-110)
255½ - UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-120)
1½ - UNDER (EVEN)

M. Jones, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
51½ - OVER (-110)
51½ - UNDER (-110)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7, 52)

Washington
Record: 6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Dallas
Record: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/2

LAST WEEK

The Redskins began the season at 0-2, but Washington has won six of its last eight games to move into the second Wild Card position in the NFC. Last Sunday night, the Redskins chased the Packers, 42-24 to score a season-high in points, while covering as three-point favorites. Washington racked up over 500 yards of offense, including 373 yards and three touchdown passes from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Rookie running back Robert Kelley found the end zone three times as the former Tulane standout eclipsed the 87-yard mark for the third straight contest.

Dallas continues to win behind its rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys pulled away from the Ravens, 27-17 as seven-point home favorites. Prescott picked up his fifth consecutive multi-touchdown passing game with three touchdown tosses, including two to wide receiver Dez Bryant. Elliott finished three yards shy of 100 yards rushing as the Rookie of the Year candidate leads the NFL in rushing with 1,102 yards. Since losing the opener to the Giants, the Cowboys have won and covered their last four games at AT&T Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The road team has won each of the past six meetings between these NFC East rivals, including a Week 2 triumph by Dallas at FedEx Field. The Cowboys rallied past the Redskins, 27-23 to cash outright as 3½-point underdogs, as the two teams went back and forth after Dallas built an early 10-0 lead. Former Redskins’ running back Alfred Morris gave the Cowboys a 27-23 lead with less than five minutes left on a four-yard touchdown run. Both quarterbacks played well as Cousins threw for 364 yards and a touchdown, while Prescott picked up his first NFL win by racking up 292 yards through the air.

OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

The Redskins have been one of the top OVER teams in the league by cashing in eight of 10 games, but both UNDERS have come away from FedEx Field. The Cowboys are riding a 5-2 run to the UNDER the last seven contests, including 2-1 the last three at home.

TURKEY TIME

Dallas rode a four-game winning streak from 2006-2010 on Thanksgiving Day, but the Cowboys have lost four of their last six on this holiday. The Panthers ripped the Cowboys last Thanksgiving, 33-14, the second straight Turkey Day defeat by double-digits. Washington shocked Dallas in its previous Thanksgiving meeting in 2012 by a 38-31 count as Robert Griffin III torched the Cowboys for 304 yards and four touchdown passes.

PROPS

Washington

K. Cousins – Total Completions
26 – OVER (-110)
26 – UNDER (-110)

K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-150)
1½ - UNDER (+130)

J. Crowder – Total Receiving Yards
53½ - OVER (-110)
53½ - UNDER (-110)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Completions
21½ - OVER (-110)
21½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-150)
1½ - UNDER (+130)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
105½ - OVER (-110)
105½ - UNDER (-110)

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Based on Sunday’s opening numbers, this year’s Thanksgiving Day card was expected to start off slow with a slugfest and end with a couple shootouts but a key injury will likely simmer the nightcap in Indianapolis. Two of three games on tap are divisional matchups and all six of the teams in action are very well alive in this year’s playoff hunt.

Let’s break down the holiday totals.

Minnesota at Detroit

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series, which includes their first encounter this season in Week 9. Detroit rallied for an improbable 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota and even though the game went to the extra session, the ‘under’ (42) was never in doubt. The pace of the game was slow as both clubs combined for only 21 possessions, which included the game-winning drive by Detroit in overtime.

Minnesota and Detroit have both leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season yet both clubs bring different total streaks into this matchup. After watching the ‘over’ begin 4-2, the Lions have seen their last four games go ‘under’ the total and the defense has an allowed an average of 18 points per game during this run and the offense (20.3 PPG) hasn’t looked that sharp.

Meanwhile, the Vikings started the season with a 6-2 ‘under’ mark but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.

The Vikings are ranked last in total offense (293.8 YPG) and those numbers have been worse on the road (276.6 YPG). Most would agree that Minnesota has the better defense in this matchup and it should hold Detroit in check. However, the Vikings have been diced up on the ground in its last three games (97, 128, 135 yards).

The total opened 43 and has been bet down to as low as 41 as of Wednesday. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine games played on Thanksgiving Day and it’s helped the cause the last four seasons by averaging 37.5 PPG.

For what it’s worth, the NFC North has played six divisional games this season and the four teams have combined for a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.

Washington at Dallas

The late afternoon Thanksgiving Day contest features another rematch as Washington will look to avenge a 27-23 home loss to Dallas in Week 2. The ‘over’ (47.5) connected late in the fourth quarter of that game and is now on a 3-1 run in this series. The Redskins moved the ball (432 yards) at will in the loss and if it wasn’t for three short field goals (36, 29, 22), they likely would’ve captured the victory.

Washington has been a great ‘over’ bet all season (8-2) but its two worst offensive outings of the season did come on the road. One key to the number of high tickets has been the Redskins inability to slow anybody down in the red zone. They’ve allowed 26 touchdowns and only managed to stifle teams to 13 field goals. Offensively, they’ve had the opposite issue as they’ve settled for too many field goals (23) in comparison to touchdowns (26).

Dallas has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season and you can point to the improved defense as a key reason. The Cowboys “bend but don’t break” unit has been great in the red zone and they’re only allowing 18.7 PPG, which is a major improvement from the past two seasons (27 PPG, 23.4 PPG).

The total for Thursday opened 51 and has jumped up to 52 at a few betting shops and that number could be a tad inflated if you go on past history. In the last 20 meetings, the pair have only seen two of their encounters listed in the fifties and both games went ‘under.’

The Cowboys have been diced up recently in the holiday matchup, allowing 32 PPG the last four years and that includes a 38-31 win by Washington in the 2012 encounter. Based on the stats mentioned above, this year’s Dallas defensive unit is underrated and going against the betting public (86% Over) is never a bad idea.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

This game had all the makings for a classic back-and-forth contest but with Colts QB Andrew Luck (concussion) expected to miss, the oddsmakers are expecting Pittsburgh (-8 ) to cruise for the second straight week as a road favorite. The total opened 54 and has dropped to 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.

Scott Tolzien is expected to get the start for Indianapolis and nobody knows what to expect from the backup. He’s only started two games in his four-year career and his numbers (1 TD, 5 INTs) are less than stellar.

Pittsburgh’s offense appears to be coming around, scoring 54 combined points the last two weeks and it should be able to move the ball on a Colts defense (397 YPG) that is third worst in the league. Plus, the Indianapolis defense is ranked 29th in takeaways and the secondary only has three interceptions.

Another reason to lean high is that the Steelers defense (363.6 YPG) doesn’t compare to units we’ve seen in previous seasons and they’ve been very suspect on the road (22 PPG).

Indy has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in the first five games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 4-1 mark on the road. Make a note that the Steelers have played in two primetime games this season and they scored 38 and 43 points and the ‘over’ connected easily in each contest.

This will be the 11th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the first 10 matchups and home teams have posted a 6-4 mark as well.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before in past pieces on this holiday, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 48

Best Under: Dallas-Washington 52

Best Team Total: Over Pittsburgh 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Minnesota-Detroit Under 50½
Washington-Dallas Under 61
Pittsburgh-Indianapolis Over 39