NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 27

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

NFL Football has three divisional games scheduled for Thanksgiving Day. First kickoff is 12:30 EST at Ford Field with Detroit hosting Chicago. Then, Dallas will hosts Eagles at 4:30 with the finale featuring a matchup between 49ers and Seahawks at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. This has always been a tough spot for teams having to play on Thursday with short rest. From a sports handicapping perspective it’s an important parameter when finding winning betting angles. Looking back to 2000, football bettors have scored tremendous profits simply wagering on NFL Thursday favorites. These NFL betting favorites have hit pay-dirt 57.0% of the time (69-49-3) split between 41-28-3 as home chalk, 28-21 wearing road uniforms. Breaking down betting numbers into Thanksgiving day tilts, it's even more pronounced as faves have cashed at a 66.7% clip with the home team 11-5 against the betting line, road chalk 13-7 ATS. However, before jumping all over favorites a trend alert for Detroit backers. Although, Detroit won last years Turkey Day shoot 40-10 vs Packers (without Rodgers) cashing as 7 point favorites the Lions remain a dreadful 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS last ten on Thanksgiving Day, 3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS their last fourteen Thanksgiving day tilts. Lions are also 6-11 ATS laying -3.5 to -7.5 points, 2-5-1 ATS last eight vs the division in the month of November.

NFL Week 13

Bears (5-6) @ Lions (7-4) — Detroit lost four of last five Turkey Day games but favorite covered all five; Lions won 40-10 LY, over Rodgers-less Pack. Detroit lost last two weeks on road, with no TDs, seven FGA on 21 drives; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, with last three home games decided by total of eight points. Chicago lost three of last four road games after winning first two; they’re 3-3 as road underdogs, and won four of last six visits to Motor City, but got swept 40-32/21-19 by Lions LY, after having won nine of previous 10 series games. Chicago won last two games, both 21-13, after losing five of previous six. Last ten Detroit games stayed under the total; average total in last three games of this series is 54.0.

Eagles (8-3) @ Cowboys (8-3) — Dallas scored 26+ points in seven of eight wins; they are 1-3 when scoring less than that. Cowboys are 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-23 overall as HFs under Garrett. Three Sanchez starts were all one-sided affairs won by home team. Eagles are lost three of last four road games; they’re 0-2-1 in last three tries as road underdogs. Philly has ten non-offensive TDs this year; they won 30-27 at Indy in Week 2 in only other game on carpet this season. Home side lost six of last eight series games, with each team 3-1 in last four visits to others’ building. Divisional home favorites are 15-15 vs spread this year, 1-3 in NFC East games. Last four Philly games, six of last nine Dallas games went over total.

Seahawks (7-4) @ 49ers (7-4) — Defending champs are 2-3 on road, beating Redskins, Panthers; they’re 6-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-4 when allowing 21+. 49ers won last three games, allowing 23 points (two TDs/24 drives) last two games, but their red zone offense is worst in NFL; they scored 17 or less points in four of last five games, are 0-5 as home favorites (3-2 SU), losing to Bears/Rams. How does team with such a mobile QB have a poor red zone offense? Seattle won three of last four series games, beating Niners in playoffs LY, but Hawks lost last five visits to Candlestick, in series where home side won 10 of last 11 series games. Five of last seven Seattle games went over total; all five 49er home games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7, 47)

The Detroit Lions are rapidly losing ground in the NFC North and will try to avoid a third straight loss when they host the Chicago Bears in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Lions had the misfortune of playing a pair of division leaders in back-to-back weeks and had no answers on offense against the Arizona Cardinals or New England Patriots. The Bears are pulling out of their own funk with back-to-back wins as they try to get back into the race.

Detroit has been leaning heavily on its defense all season but showed some cracks in the unit while getting blasted 34-9 by the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots steered away from the Lions’ strength along the defensive line with a series of quick passes – a strategy Chicago has the personnel to employ. The Bears' defense was a big question mark after surrendering a combined 106 points in back-to-back losses to New England and Green Bay but held Minnesota and Tampa Bay to a total of 26 in the last two contests.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Lions favored by 6.5, before jumping to Detroit -7 Monday. An opening total of 46.5 has since jumped as high as 47 before resting at 47 on Wednesday.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - LB Lance Briggs (Ques-Groin), CB Kyle Fuller (Doub-Knee) Lions - RB Reggie Bush (Prob-Ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (Prob-Ankle), T Riley Reiff (Ques-Leg), LB Ashlee Palmer (Ques-Concussion)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "For the first time in NFL history all three Thanksgiving Day games feature an NFC filled lineup. The Lions will look to put a halt to a two-game losing skid while the Bears hope to extend a two-game winning streak in the opening game. Not good news for Detroit considering that teams off a pair of wins are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on Turkey Day when facing an opponent off a pair of losses. Coupled with the Lions recent 1-9 SU mark on Thanksgiving Day, an upset would be no surprise." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Chicago’s offense has been under some scrutiny and it generated only 68 yards while going scoreless in the first half on Sunday before taking advantage of some Tampa Bay turnovers to put up 21 third-quarter points in the 21-13 triumph. “Win or loss, we’re always trying to improve on offense,” quarterback Jay Cutler said on his radio show on ESPN 1000 on Monday. “We’re always looking at what we did wrong. This week’s a little bit different because we’ve got to move on.” The most consistent part of the offense has been running back Matt Forte, who could become a bigger part of the passing game this week as the Bears take on the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Matthew Stafford went 18-of-46 for a career-worst 39.1 completion percentage against New England but only some of that can be blamed on poor throws, as Detroit's receivers had several notable drops in the red zone. “We’ve got to keep working at it, we’ve got to keep concentrating on it,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters of the drops. “Those are the things that stop drives and they certainly did stop some drives for us and kept us from getting a couple of scores.” Star receiver Calvin Johnson was targeted a total of 22 time in the last two games but only made nine catches for 117 yards.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North.
*Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
*Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Detroit.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59.32 percent of Covers users are backing the Lions -7 with 60.8 percent on the over.

Philadelphia Eages at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 54.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have a pretty short turnaround after playing the late game on the road Sunday but should not lack energy when they take on the visiting Philadelphia Eagles in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Cowboys and the Eagles enter the weekend tied for first in the NFC East and both are coming off impressive victories. Dallas had the luxury of a bye in Week 11 before the grind of two games in five days.

The Cowboys had to battle back from a 21-10 halftime deficit and earned a 31-28 win at the New York Giants on Sunday when Tony Romo found Dez Bryant in the end zone with 1:01 left. “It’s our job as coaches to make sure we understand the physical burden that they’ve been under,” Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. “…But having said that we’ve got to get their minds forward and get ready for this next challenge.” The Eagles, who lead the NFC in total offense, will represent the biggest challenge for the Cowboys defense, which is surrendering an average of 355 yards.

LINE HISTORY: Neither the opening line of Cowboys -3 or opening total of 54.5 have moved.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - LB Emmanuel Acho (Ques-Thurs) Cowboys - DT Josh Brent (Ques-Conditioning)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of division leaders in a possible playoff preview in Dallas where the Cowboys have struggled on Thanksgiving Day against .500 or better opponents, covering only seven of the last 19 match ups. On the flip side, NFL home favorites seeking revenge on Turkey Day are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS of late." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE EAGLES (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Philadelphia fell on its face in a 53-20 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 16 but bounced right back on Sunday as LeSean McCoy ran for 130 yards and a score in a 43-24 win over the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles are undefeated within the division and earned a 24-22 win at Dallas in the final week of the regular season to lock up the NFC East crown in 2013. "We're not talking about first-place games because they don't crown a champion after Thursday's game," Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly told reporters. "We're just excited about the opportunity to go play against a really good team."

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U): Romo missed that Week 17 loss to the Eagles last season after undergoing back surgery but is rounding into health after another back scare a few weeks ago and threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants. Romo was on the field with most of his teammates for Monday’s walk-through as the team accelerates it usual practice week. Taking some pressure off Romo is running back DeMarco Murray, who had his 10th 100-yard game of the season on Sunday and leads the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

*Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
*Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: The Cowboys -3 have 52.07 percent of Covers users, with the over seeing a huge 74.7 percent.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 39.5)

The stakes are certainly not as high as when Seattle knocked off San Francisco in last season's NFC Championship game, but Thursday's outcome figures to have some major playoff ramifications when the 49ers host the Seahawks in a matchup of bitter NFC West rivals. With both teams trailing division-leading Arizona by two games and a rematch in Seattle looming in 17 days, the loser will face an uphill climb in the crowded NFC. “It’s a big game for us," San Francisco safety Antoine Bethea said. "It’s our next game.”

The 49ers are riding a three-game winning streak - the victories coming by a combined 12 points - while the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won four of five to surge back into playoff contention. While the teams have split the past four meetings, the home side prevailing in each, Seattle outlasted San Francisco 23-17 in the NFC title game as cornerback Richard Sherman knocked away a pass in the end zone and promptly ripped 49ers wideout Michael Crabtree in a postgame interview. "We're going to have to play great football," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said. "Play lights out, that's it."

LINE HISTORY: The game originally opened as a pick'em before shifting to San Farncisco -1 late Tuesday. The total opened at 41 before being pushed down to 39.5 Tuesday.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - G James Carpenter (Ques-Ankle), DB Marcus Burley (Ques-Hamstring), C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle) 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Ques-Concussion), TE Vance McDonald (Ques-Hip)

WEATHER REPORT: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with a game time temperature around 66°F. Winds will gust as high 10 mph towards the northwest.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Rare underdog role for the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks but perhaps justified given their struggles away from home, and the success of the host in this series - now 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS the last five years. A loss will be crippling for either team. Expect this to be played with playoff intensity." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Running back Marshawn Lynch has been a walking soap opera for Seattle, ranging from being fined for refusing to speak to the media to speculation about his future with the club and recurring back issues that forced him to briefly leave last week's 19-3 win over the Cardinals. The spotlight will remain on Lynch, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown in last season's playoff victory and has run for five touchdowns in the past five meetings (postseason included). Wilson has not passed for more than 211 yards during the current 4-1 stretch, but he been a dangerous threat out of the backfield with three 100-yard rushing games this season. The return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner from injury provided a boost to the defense, which limited Arizona to 204 total yards last week.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): San Francisco was teetering at .500 after back-to-back defeats against Denver and St. Louis, but showed its mettle by rebounding with an overtime victory at New Orleans before giving up a combined 23 points in narrow wins over the New York Giants and Washington. “You make a deposit in the toughness account and you’ll be able to make withdrawals from that later down the road," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We want to keep making those deposits.” Wideout Anquan Boldin, the epitome of that toughness, is coming off a nine-catch, 137-yard outing but Colin Kaepernick has thrown for only one scoring pass in each of the past five contests while running back Frank Gore has not cracked 100 yards since Oct. 5. Linebacker Aldon Smith had two sacks in his second game back from suspension and has six in his last six contests versus Seattle.

TRENDS:

*Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
*Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 53.20 percent of Covers users are behind the Seahawks +1, with 50.9 percent taking the over.

Thanksgiving Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Bears at Lions (-7, 47)

For the first time since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, no AFC teams are playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are a staple on Turkey Day, but Detroit has struggled in this showcase contest for a very long time. From 2004-2012, the Lions couldn’t buy a victory on Thanksgiving, losing nine straight times, including eight by double-digits. However, Detroit snapped that dubious skid last November by routing Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, 40-10. Now, the Lions are favored on consecutive Thanksgivings since 1999 and 2000.

Detroit (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) enters Thursday’s action one game behind Green Bay in the NFC North race, as the Lions are coming off consecutive defeats at Arizona and New England. How bad has Detroit’s offense been recently? The Lions haven’t reached the end zone in the past two games, settling for five field goals, while quarterback Matthew Stafford has been intercepted twice with no touchdowns. In last week’s loss to the Patriots, the stout Detroit defense allowed 439 yards, while Tom Brady torched the secondary for 349 yards and two touchdowns.

The Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) were left for dead after getting trounced at New England and Green Bay in back-to-back blowouts, getting outscored, 106-37 to fall to 3-6. However, Chicago has rebounded at home with victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay to creep closer to the .500 mark. Both wins came by a 21-13 margin at Soldier Field, as Chicago erased a 10-0 deficit in last Sunday’s triumph over Tampa Bay. The Bears racked up just 204 yards of offense, but a pair of Matt Forte touchdowns in the second half gave Chicago only its second two-game winning streak of the season.

Last season, the Lions swept the season series from the Bears for the first time since 2007. Detroit outlasted Chicago in the first matchup last September, 40-32 as three-point home favorites, while Jay Cutler threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final four minutes to make the final look closer. The Lions forced four turnovers, while kicking four field goals and scoring a defensive touchdown.

The second matchup at Soldier Field in November saw less points, as Detroit held on for a 21-19 win as one-point road favorites. Stafford threw three touchdown passes, while Reggie Bush rushed for over 100 yards for the second straight time against Chicago. Bush missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest.

Coming home is a positive thing for the Lions, who own a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record at Ford Field this season. The lone loss came to the Bills in Week 5 after Detroit blew a 14-0 lead in a 17-14 setback. Since beating the Giants and Packers by double-digits, the last three home games for the Lions have been decided by a total of eight points, including close victories over the Saints and Dolphins.

Chicago began the season not being able to win at home and looking unstoppable on the road. However, those roles have flipped as Marc Trestman’s team has lost three of its past four games on the highway since September wins over the 49ers and Jets. In three road games with totals listed below 50, the Bears have gone ‘over’ each time, while posting a 5-1 ‘over’ record away from Soldier Field this season.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3½, 55½)

The two top teams in the NFC East meet for the first time this season with plenty of important circumstances on the line. Philadelphia makes its first trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving since 1989, when the Eagles shut out the Cowboys, 27-0. The Eagles look to make another big impression on Turkey Day with first place on the line as there is no guarantee of this division getting two teams in the playoffs.

Entering Thursday’s action, both the Eagles and Cowboys are 8-3, but the winner of the Seattle/San Francisco matchup improves to 8-4, as the Niners have beaten both Philadelphia and Dallas this season, which is important for tie-breaker purposes. However, Dallas won at Seattle last month, while Philadelphia and Seattle meet in Week 14 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) picked up its sixth home win in six tries last Sunday, routing Tennessee, 43-24 as 11-point favorites. Mark Sanchez improved to 2-1 in the starting role since taking over for the injured Nick Foles at quarterback, as the former USC standout threw for 307 yards, but was intercepted twice by the Titans. LeSean McCoy broke the 100-yard rushing mark for only the third time this season with 130 yards and just his third touchdown on the ground.

The Cowboys (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) return home for the first time in nearly four weeks following a blowout of Jacksonville in London, then rallying past the Giants last Sunday night, 31-28. Most fans would only remember rookie Odell Beckham’s amazing one-hand touchdown catch to give New York a 14-3 lead, but Dallas outscored the Giants, 21-7 late, capped off by Tony Romo’s second touchdown connection of the night with Dez Bryant. Dallas swept the season series from New York, while improving to 2-1 in the division, but failed to cover for the first time in four games away from Cowboys Stadium.

Since 2006, the Cowboys have won six of eight games on Thanksgiving, including last season’s 31-24 victory over the Raiders as 10-point favorites. Dallas looks to turn around its luck at home after losing a pair of games in Arlington to Washington and Arizona, while Romo sat out the Cardinals defeat in Week 9 with a back injury.

Last season, the road team won each meeting, as the Eagles knocked off the Cowboys, 24-22 last December. Dallas covered as 7½-point home ‘dogs with a late Bryant touchdown catch, as both starting quarterbacks in that game (Foles and Kyle Orton) aren’t playing this time around. The Eagles have won three of the past four visits to the Lone Star State, but Philadelphia is just 2-3 on the road this season.

Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

CHICAGO BEARS (5-6) at DETROIT LIONS (7-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -7, Total: 47

The Bears look to win their third straight game when they visit the struggling Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago is coming off a 21-13 home victory over the Buccaneers, which marked its second straight 21-13 win after topping the Vikings by that same score in Week 11. Detroit, meanwhile, has scored just 15 points during a two-game losing skid, falling 34-9 at New England last week. The team is now 1-4 ATS in its past five contests.

Last season, the Lions won-and-covered in both meetings with the Bears, and are 4-2 SU (but only 2-4 ATS) as the host in this series since 2008. This matchup features a Detroit defense that is top-10 in the league at defending the pass going up against Chicago QB Jay Cutler, who can be a turnover machine when he is thrown off his game.

The Lions are 1-10 ATS off a non-conference game over the past three seasons, but get to face a Bears team that is 0-7 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games in the past two seasons.

Chicago is dealing with a slew of defensive injuries with CB Kyle Fuller (knee), LB Lance Briggs (groin), DE Trevor Scott (knee) and LB Darryl Sharpton (hamstring) all listed as questionable for Thursday. After sitting out last week, RB Reggie Bush (ankle) is expected to give it a go for the Lions in this one, but OLs Larry Warford and Riley Reiff are not likely to play due to knee injuries.

The Bears have won two straight games and still have a small chance of making the playoffs, but they’ll need to beat the Lions on Thursday. One player who will need to play well in this game is QB Jay Cutler (2,825 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT), who has been excellent against the Lions in recent years. Over the past five seasons, Cutler is 7-4 SU with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 meetings with the Lions. In his past five trips to Detroit, he has thrown for 266.6 yards per game with nine total touchdowns and just three interceptions. As long as he can limit mistakes, the Bears will have a chance to pull off the upset.

WR Alshon Jeffery (58 rec, 783 yards, 5 TD) has been Cutler’s go-to-guy in recent weeks. Over the past three games, Jeffery has 19 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He should be able to make some plays against a defense that really struggled with the Patriots on Sunday. RB Matt Forte (822 rush yards, 5 TD) has been this team’s best player all season long. Over the past two weeks, he has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns while catching 11 passes for 81 yards. The Lions do, however, have the best rushing defense in football and could really give him some trouble on Thursday.

The Lions have really struggled recently and are coming off of an embarrassing 34-9 road loss to the Patriots. This Lions offense has not scored a touchdown in two weeks and will really need QB Matthew Stafford (2,943 pass yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) to break out of his slump. Over the past two weeks, Stafford has thrown two interceptions while not being able to find the end zone.

WR Calvin Johnson (38 rec, 578 yards, 3 TD) has caught just nine passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns during the two-game losing skid. Stafford and Johnson will need to regain the magic they once had in this division game or they could be in danger of missing the playoffs after an impressive start to this season. RB Reggie Bush (191 rush yards, 1 TD) should return for this game, and will add some much-needed explosiveness to this offense. Bush rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the Lions’ two victories over the Bears last season.

Chicago has trouble dealing with his shiftiness and the Lions could really use him back. Defensively this team is still one of the best in the league, but has been lit up for 655 passing yards during the two-game losing skid. Detroit will need to do a better job defending the pass against Chicago.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (8-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 54.5

Two rivals will fight for the top spot in the NFC East on Thursday when the Eagles visit the Cowboys.

Philadelphia is coming off of a 43-24 victory over the Titans as an 11-point home favorite, making the team 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven games. Meanwhile, Dallas is only 1-3 ATS in its past four contests, but picked up a crucial SU road win over the 4-point underdog Giants last week by a 31-28 score.

These division rivals have not met this season, but the Cowboys have won three of the past four meetings (SU and ATS), with the lone loss coming at home on Dec. 29 last season. Dallas is 3-0 ATS after a road victory and 2-0 ATS after a win by six or less points this season, but is just 14-18 ATS when facing a conference opponent over the past three seasons. Philadelphia has been even worse in the NFC, going 12-19 ATS versus conference opponents in the same span. The Eagles are, however, 23-10 ATS versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992.

The only new injury for either team is Cowboys DB Tyler Patmon (knee), who is considered questionable for Thursday.

The Eagles are coming off of a blowout victory and RB LeSean McCoy (859 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 3 TD) finally had a breakout game, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. McCoy had rushed for 88 yards against the Packers the game before and is finally running the ball close to the level he did last season when he led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards. He should be able to find some holes against this Cowboys defense that he has gained 872 total yards against over nine career meetings.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,187 pass yards, 7 TD, 6 INT) threw for 307 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, but he continues to turn the ball over at an alarming rate. He threw two interceptions in the game and has now tossed six picks in his four games quarterbacking the Eagles. He’ll need to limit his mistakes going forward or he’ll really hold this team back. WR Jordan Matthews (50 rec, 635 yards, 6 TD) is Sanchez’s favorite receiver. He’s been targeted at least eight times in all three of Sanchez’s starts and has delivered with 18 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns in those games.

The Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers in the game and also had a kick return touchdown to take a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. Philly has allowed 375.3 total yards per game this season (26th in NFL), including surrendering 266.3 passing YPG (30th in league).

The Cowboys are fresh off a big victory over the Giants and now turn their attention to Thursday's game with huge playoff implications. QB Tony Romo (2,519 pass yards, 22 TD, 6 INT) had one of his best games of the year, throwing for 275 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also led the Cowboys on a game-winning drive, where he connected with WR Dez Bryant (63 rec, 879 yards, 10 TD) on a 13-yard TD pass with just over a minute to go. Bryant finished with seven receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns in the game, but Romo is the real story for this team as he has now thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games since returning from a back injury. Romo has played well in this rivalry, going 8-5 SU as a starter in this series, while throwing for 3,069 yards (236 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 19 TD and 13 INT. Bryant has given the Eagles all kinds of trouble in the past two seasons, as he has caught 25 passes for 394 yards and 4 TD in those four meetings.

Romo and Bryant have lifted this team recently and are providing the touchdowns that the NFL's leading rusher, RB DeMarco Murray (1,354 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 7 TD) is missing in recent weeks. Murray hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7, but he has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 of 11 games this season. He has not run very well in the past two seasons of this series, gaining only 131 yards on 40 carries (3.3 YPC) with one touchdown and one lost fumble.

This Dallas defense was miserable in the first half against the Giants, allowing 21 points, but the unit did regroup and hold New York to just seven points in the second half. The Cowboys have forced at least one turnover in 10 straight games, and will be looking to force Mark Sanchez into some low percentage throws on Thursday, But they have also allowed 278 passing YPG in the past four games and 7.4 net yards per passing attempt this season (26th in NFL). The run defense has played very well recently though, holding five of the past six opponents to less than 105 rushing yards.

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Thanksgiving Day is upon us which means NFL total bettors have three opportunities to cash tickets this Thursday. The past two years, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 and five of those games had 50 or more combined points posted. Will the pendulum swing back this season? I’ll try to help answer that question below but make a note that all three matchups this year are divisional battles and I like to believe that familiarity favors defense.

Be sure to check back this weekend as I’ll recap Week 12 and preview the remainder of Week 13. For now, let’s break down the games.

Chicago at Detroit

In the last eight regular season matchups between these teams, the ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4. At Ford Field, the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 during this span.

Last season, the totals were 48 and 52 points. I bring that up because this year’s number opened at 46 ½ and you can see that the oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams, especially the Lions. The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 this season and that includes a 5-1 mark at home.

Despite getting humbled at New England last Sunday, Detroit’s defense is allowing 17.3 points per game, which is ranked first in the NFL. Offensively, the Lions have been banged up with key injuries (Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush) all season and the production (17.9 PPG) has seriously dropped. The Lions averaged 24.7 PPG in 2013 and 23.2 PPG in 2012.

Detroit might be able to get things going this week as they face Chicago, who is allowing 27.5 PPG and that number gets worse on the road (31.5 PPG). Also, make a note that the Bears unit had three starters get hurt last Sunday and they’re all listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday. INJURY REPORT

Chicago enters this game with two straight wins and even though the defense only allowed 13 points in each contest, neither of those victories (Vikings, Bucs) were impressive. Prior to those wins, Chicago gave up 51 and 55 points.

The difference? Brady and Rodgers vs. Bridgewater and McCown. The Lions’ Matthew Stafford falls somewhere in between that quartet and you can also put Jay Cutler into that “middle of the pack” group too.

As many bettors know, Cutler is hit or miss. However, the Bears are averaging more points on the road (23.8 PPG) than at home (18.6 PPG) this season. Those offensive numbers have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in Chicago’s first six games on the road.

Philadelphia at Dallas

Of the three games slated for the holiday, this is the expected shootout. The total opened 54 and has jumped to 55 at most shops and will probably rise more at kickoff.

The Eagles (8-3) and Cowboys (6-4-1) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and those results can be attributed to the offensive units. Philadelphia is averaging 31.1 PPG, ranked third in the league. The Eagles are averaging 72.9 plays per game, which is the fastest pace in the league. Dallas doesn’t push the tempo like Philadelphia (63.3 plays per game) but it’s still averaging 26.5 PPG.

Defensively, Philadelphia is the worst of the two units. The Eagles are allowing 25 PPG and that number creeps up to 30.2 PPG on the road. The pace of the offense doesn’t help the defense at all and neither do the mistakes by the offense. Philadelphia has coughed up the ball a league-worst 27 times this season, which makes you wonder how this team is 8-3. As much as you hear the praise for QB Mark Sanchez, it should be noted that he’s been picked off six times in the four games he’s played.

Turnovers can be either good or bad for total bettors and something you can’t handicap. However, the Eagles’ tendencies make you believe you’ll see at least one on Thursday.

If you look at how Dallas has performed on Thanksgiving Day, it’s certainly hard to make a case for the ‘under’ in this matchup.

Last season the ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two regular season matchups, which included the Eagles’ 24-22 win in Week 17 over the Cowboys. For those of you who forgot, QB Tony Romo sat out that game.

Seattle at San Francisco

The NFL really outdid itself by scheduling a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship on Thanksgiving and they’re hoping they can get a repeat performance of that drama-filled matchup. Seattle earned a 23-17 win over San Francisco and the game barely went ‘under’ (40.5) the closing total. The two regular season matchups between the pair also cashed ‘under’ tickets.

CG Technology in Las Vegas opened this week’s matchup at 42 and the pros gobbled (pun intended) that number up and bet it down to 40 quickly. As of Wednesday, the number fell to 39 ½ at some shops.

Playing the ‘under’ in this matchup doesn’t leave you with much wiggle room and if that’s the direction you’re leaning, be prepared to sweat out the full 60 minutes.

Current form is a big part of my handicapping and all signs point to a defensive slugfest. In their last three games, both Seattle (14.7 PPG) and San Francisco (15.7 PPG) have been very solid defensively.

The Seahawks offense is a completely different team on the road (21.4 PPG) than at home (28.7 PPG) this season. San Francisco has been held to 17 points or less in four of its last five games and two of those results came at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 at the 49ers new home of Levi’s Stadium.

This will be the ninth season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. In the first eight matchups, total bettors have seen a stalemate at 4-4. For those wondering, home teams have gone 6-2 during this span.

The Seahawks haven’t played on the holiday since 2008 when they lost 34-9 at Dallas. In 2011, the 49ers lost 16-6 at Baltimore.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before on this holiday, if you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Chicago-Detroit 47

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 39½

Best Team Total: Under 20 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 Chicago-Detroit
Under 64 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 48 ½ Seattle-San Francisco

NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Previews
Atssportsline.com

Happy Thanksgiving from ATSwins.com. The NFL returns with three big games from 12:30pm through midnight, so you can have wall-to-wall football in between the turkey. We'll preview all three games below with betting implications.

Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at Detroit Lions (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U):

Opening and Current Odds: Detroit opened as a 6.5-point betting odds favorite and moved to 7. The total opened at 47 and moved to 47.5.

Last game: (11/10/13): Detroit (-1) over Chicago, 21-19; (9/29/13): Detroit (-3) over Chicago, 40-32.

Weather: Dome.

Intangibles
Matthew Stafford completed a career-worst 39.1 percent against New England.
Detroit has won just one of their last 10 Thanksgiving games.
Chicago has the NFL's 28th-ranked pass defense.

Key NFL Trends

Chicago is:
8-20 ATS last 28 vs. NFC.
10-21-1 ATS last 32 overall.
2-10 ATS last 12 vs. NFC North.
0-7 ATS last 7 in Week 13.
20-7 last 27 matchups on the over bet on road games.

Detroit is
17-35-1 ATS last 53 in November.
2-8 ATS last 10 Thursday games.
2-12 last 14 matchups on the under bet overall.
4-0 ATS last 4 at home in series.

Outlook: Chicago has won two straight games and has a slight chance for the playoffs at 5-6 after beating Tampa Bay and Minnesota at home. They face a Detroit team that has scored just 15 combined points in their last two games. The Bears have had their own issues offensively as they generated just 68 yards in the first half against Tampa Bay, but scored 21 points in the third quarter to win by eight. Quarterback Jay Cutler threw for just 130 yards, tossing just one TD to Alshon Jeffery in the third quarter. The Bears' defense ranks just 21st overall in the league and has struggled all season against the pass, allowing 260.5 yards per game. What they really kneed ins linebacker Lance Briggs (groin) and CB Kyle Fuller (knee) to be healthy and both are questionable. The Bears' defense held Minnesota and Tampa Bay to a total of 26 points in the last two games, but surrendered 106 combined points to high-powered New England and Green Bay.

The Lions have one of the worst running games in the NFL, averaging just 80.8 rushing yards per games. Injuries to running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have hampered the game, while offensive linemen Riley Reiff and Larry Warford are dealing with knee injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford, who has passed for 771 yards and five touchdowns in the last two Thanksgiving games. He has help from wide receiver Golden Tate, who has 1,047 receiving yards, becoming first Detroit receiver other than Calvin Johnson to achieve that mark since 2006. Defensively, Detroit ranks third overall and is number one against the run, allowing just 70.7 rushing yards per game. Chicago will try and run with Matt Forte, but they'll probably not be able to take advantage. Their advantage comes with their big receivers against Detroit's secondary, which was carved up last week by Tom Brady and New England (34-9 loss). Detroit has lost two straight on the road to elite teams, while Chicago has beaten the Bucs and vikings at home. That doesn't mean a whole lot as the Lions have played 75 Thanksgiving games going back to 1934, with 15 of those games coming against the Bears, who are 16-14-2 SU overall on the holiday.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U)

Opening and Current Odds: Dallas opened as a 2-point betting odds favorite and mvoed to 3. The total opened at 52 and moved to 55.5.

Last games: (12/29/13): Philadelphia (-7.5) over Dallas, 24-22; (10/20/13): Dallas (+3) over Philadelphia, 17-3.

Weather: Sunny. Southeast wind 4-9. Gametime temperature: 60.

Intangibles
Dallas is just 3-3 at home this year.
Quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games.
Dallas is aiming for the first 9-3 start since 1981.

NFL Key Trends

Philadelphia is
13-4 ATS last 17 in Week 13.
3-12-1 ATS last 16 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
3-8 ATS last 11 in series.
15-3 last 18 matchups on the over bet in Week 13.

Dallas is
2-7 ATS last 9 in November.
1-4 ATS last 5 in in Week 13.
Home team is 1-4 ATS last 5 in series.
5-0-1 last 6 matchups on the over bet in November.

Outlook: Philadelphia needs a win to vault over Dallas in the NFC East. The Eagles will have to be at their best, especially on defense, as they allow 109 rushing yards per game. They key on offense will be quarterback Mark Sanchez, taking over the injured Nick Foles, who is out with a broken clavicle. Sanchez threw for 307 yards, a touchdown and two picks against Tennessee last week in their 43-24 win at home. He has 1,187 yards passing with seven TDs and six picks. The Eagles are loaded with weapons led by LeSean McCoy, who has 859 rushing yards. Last week, he ran for 130 yards on 21 carries and it was us third 100-yard game of the season. The top receiver is Jeremy Maclin, who has 63 catches for 980 yards and nine TDs. But Sanchez's top target has been rookie Jordan Matthews, who has 18 catches for 322 yards and three scores in his last three games. They lead the NFC in total offense 411.8 yards per game. On defense, the Eagles have done some major damage with their pass rush as linebacker Connor Barwin leads with 12.5 sacks of their overall 38. They allow 266.3 yards per game in the air, which is why a pass rush is critical.

Dallas is coming off a Sunday night win over the New York Giants, 31-28. They needed a Tony Romo touchdown pass to Dez Bryant with 1:101 left in the game to beat a bad Giants team. The Eagles are 5-0 on Thanksigiving, though they haven't played since 2008. Romo threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants, in his second game back from a back injury. Romo is 6-1 on Thanksgiving games and has won his last three starts against the Eagles. Running back DeMarco Murray has been the focal point of the offense, leading the NFL with 1,354 yards. The Cowboys average 150.1 yards per game on the ground as Murray has run over 100 yards 10 times in 11 tries. In the air, tight end Jason Witten is second on the team with 43 catches for 461 yards and four scores. He has a combined 18 catches for 243 yards in his last two against the Eagles at home. Dallas could miss safety Jeff Heath (broken thumb) and Jack Crawford (thumb), while receiver Terrance Williams has a broken index finger cut should play with a splint. Defensively, the Cowboys have been solid, allowing 355 yards per game and 248 in the air. Their best defender might be DT Henry Melton, who has five sacks.

Seattle Seahawks (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U)

Opening and Current Odds: San Francisco opened as a 1.5-point betting odds favorite and remained there in most books. The total opened at 42.5 and moved to 39.5.

Last games: (1/19/14): Seattle (-4) over San Francisco; (12/8/13): San Francisco (-2.5) over Seattle, 19-17; (9/15/13): Seattle (-3) over San Francisco, 29-3.

Weather: Partly cloudy. Northwest wind: 5-10. Gametime temperature: 66.

Intangibles
Seattle hasn't won in San Francisco since October 2008.
San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has a TD pass in 18 straight games.
These two teams face each other again in Seattle in 17 days.

Key NFL Trends

Seattle is
20-8 ATS last 28 vs. NFC.
5-0 ATS last 5 in Week 13.
1-4 ATS last 5 road games.
15-7 last 22 matchups on the over bet following a SU win of more than 14 points.

San Francisco is
4-10 ATS last 14 in Week 13.
26-9-3 ATS last 38 following an ATS loss.
0-5 ATS last 5 in series.
4-10 last 14 matchups on the under bet overall.
Home team is 8-3 ATS last 11 in series.

Outlook: Seattle has won four of five to move back into playoff contention. They are coming off a big win over Arizona, 19-3 at home last week. The star of this Seattle team is their defense, which leads the league allowing 296.8 yards per game. Last week, they gave up just 204 yards against the Cardinals. This will be a rematch of Seattle corner Richard Sherman going up against wide receiver Michael Crabtree, since the Seahawks' 23-17 win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Seattle scored 13 unanswered points, going ahead on Russell Wilson's 35-yard touchdown pas to Jermaine Kearse in the fourth quarter. Wilson just knows how to win football game as he's won 72.1% of his games to rank second amongst active NFL quarterbacks. This year, Wilson has had to run more as he's rushed for a career-high 644 yards. He was sacked seven times against Arizona as Seattle's offensive line has struggled in pass protection though left guard James Carpenter might be back from an ankle injury in this game. Running back Marshawn Lynch has been in "beast mode" most of the season, despite dealing with a back injury. He has 852 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this year. Defensively, the Seahawks got linebacker Bobby Wagner back from a toe injury and he made eight tackles last week. Safety Kam Chancellor was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Sherman has dominated the 49ers, as he's picked off two passes, forced a fumble and blocked a field goal return he took 90 yards for a score in the last four against the 49ers.

San Francisco will be looking for some revenge, but they need a big game from Colin Kaepernick, who has been inconsistent this year. The 49ers struggled offensively the last two weeks, as they combined for just 34 points in wins over Washington and the New York Giants. He has thrown for just one touchdown pass in his last five games. Kaepernick threw for 256 yards last week, completing 20 of 29 with a TD and a pick. But the running game was shutdown by Washington (17-13 win) as Frank Gore was held to just 36 yards on 13 carries. Anquan Boldin caught nine passes for 137 yards to lead the 49ers. Kaepernick is completing 61.7 percent of his passes for 2,615 yards with 15 TDs and six picks this yera (92.1 passer rating). Gore has 684 rushing yards with just two touchdowns, while Kaepernick adds 336 rushing yards and no TDs. The defense allows just 300.1 yards per game and they've posted 22 sacks on the season. They just got back outside linebacker Aldon Smith from a season-long suspension, who had two sacks last week against Washington in his second game back. He has six sacks in his last six games against Seattle.

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