NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 2nd, 2017

BUFFALO (5 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 5) - 11/2/2017, 8:25 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BUFFALO @ NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games

NFL Week 9

Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5) — Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they’ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8 ) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

Armadillosports.com

Bills, Jets meet for Thursday Night Football
By: StatFox.com

The Bills will be trying to improve to an impressive 6-2 with a Thursday Night Football victory over the Jets.

Buffalo has shocked a lot of people with a 5-2 start to the season, and the team is red-hot coming into this one. The Bills have won four of their past five heading into Thursday, but the wins have been quite unexpected as well. Buffalo defeated Denver, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Oakland in those four games. All four of those teams had playoff aspirations heading into the season, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Bills are able to build on this start. They should feel pretty confident in their ability to beat a mediocre Jets team, but New York will give Buffalo everything it has. The Jets have been very competitive this season and they have now covered in five of their past six. The one non-cover also happened to be a push, so New York will definitely be an interesting play in this one. The last time these teams met in MetLife Stadium, the Jets won 30-10 as four-point underdogs. The Bills have, however, won-and-covered in three of the past five games played between these teams. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Jets are 19-6 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. CB Morris Claiborne (Foot) is, however, questionable for the Jets in this game, which could be an important factor in this one. He has been solid for New York and the team will miss him here.

After a slow start to the season, RB LeSean McCoy has seemingly found his footing for the Bills. Over the past two weeks, McCoy has rushed for 242 yards and three touchdowns for Buffalo. He also caught 11 passes for 53 yards in those games. He has been incredibly hard for opposing teams to deal with and he should be able to get it going against New York here. He will, however, need QB Tyrod Taylor to get the passing game going in this one. If Taylor is not throwing the ball well for the Bills then the Jets will be able to load the box and focus only on stopping McCoy. Taylor has been solid for Buffalo lately, but he really does not have many weapons to work with. WR Jordan Matthews is probably his best option, but Matthews has dealt with injuries all season and was new to the team to begin with. That has made it hard for him to get incorporated in the offense. With that being the case, Taylor must spread the ball around and just take what the defense gives him. It’ll be interesting to see if WR Kelvin Benjamin plays, as the Bills acquired him late on Tuesday. As for Buffalo’s defense, getting pressure on McCown will be key here. He has been great for the Jets this season, but he mostly does his best work in a clean pocket. The Bills can make it tough on him by forcing him to rush throws.

The Jets have lost two straight games, but they were competitive in both of them. Those games came against the Patriots and Falcons, so the Jets should be proud of the way they played. They now have a much more winnable game against a Bills team that has played well this season. New York will need to be ready to defend the run in this one, as McCoy and Taylor are both explosive out of the backfield. If the two of them are both having their way on the ground then the Jets will have pretty much no chance. They will also need a solid performance out of QB Josh McCown in this one. The 38-year-old has been great for New York recently, as he has thrown for nine touchdowns and only four picks over the past four contests. The Jets have looked explosive on offense, which is not something that could be said for the team last year. New York could also, however, use a good game from the rushing attack here. That means that RB Bilal Powell will need to be effective in this one.

TNF - Bills at Jets
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

The Bills haven't reached the playoffs since 1999, topping out with a pair of 9-7 seasons since the Music City Miracle ended their last postseason appearance abruptly. If they get to 6-2, they can put themselves in a great position to finally return with a decent second half.

A loss to the rival New York Jets would definitely spoil Buffalo's momentum, but Sean McDermott has proven extremely competent working with a veteran group that has been in every game this season. They're coming off their first true blowout win, putting away Oakland on a 48-yard TD run by LeSean McCoy. The 34 points they scored were their highest total of the season, surpassing the 30 set the previous week in a wild comeback win at Tampa Bay. The Bills' defense has created timely turnovers and has seen McCoy finally break out.

He failed to find the end zone until Week 7, which is further proof of how resourceful the Bills have been operating without their projected top receiver and tight end. Jordan Matthews has returned and Charles Clay is close to coming back, so given the addition of Kelvin Benjamin via a surprising trade against Carolina, QB Tyrod Taylor has hismself some red zone targets. Benjamin was said to be "50-50 shot" to play but will likely be available given that he's an upgrade over what Buffalo has available.

The Jets can make anyone brave enough to have gone over on their projected win total before the season started a winner early by pulling this upset and seemingly always get up for division rivals. New York split against Miami, covering both games, and hung around enough to cover against New England. In Todd Bowles' two-plus seasons, his Jets have been profitable against AFC East foes and swept the Bills outright last year.

This season's lone meeting was played back in Week 1 for McDermott's first contest as head coach and featured a strong debut from two of the top rookie defensive backs in the league this season, Buffalo's Tre'Davious White and the Jets' Jamal Adams. McCoy ran for 110 yards as the Bills outgained New York on the ground 190-38.

Bilal Powell and Matt Forte each had huge games against Buffalo last season in fueling the victories, so the hope is that one or both can get the job done here. Forte was aggravated by only getting four carries last week and questioned offensive coordinator John Morton's strategy of going away from the run in driving rain against Atlanta, so this might be a week where we see a heavy reliance on the run. The Jets failed to hold a fourth-quarter lead for the second straight week and have been outscored 26-3 the last two games, losses to the Falcons and Dolphins. Despite their unexpectedly strong showing in these games, frustration is bubbling.

The Bills have allowed their opponent to score first in six of their seven games, getting out to a lead only against the Jets. Buffalo has managed just three first quarter points all season, so their priority will be to try and get off to a strong start on the road. Weather won't be a factor here on a mild night in the tri-state area. Both teams have seen each of their last two games surpass the posted total.

Buffalo Bills
Season win total: 6.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC East: 8/1 to 6/1
Odds to win AFC: 30/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 50/1

New York Jets
Season win total: 3.5 (Over +130, Under -145)
Odds to win AFC East: 100/1 to 200/1
Odds to win AFC: 250/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 500/1 to 1000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

As stated above, the Jets will best their projected win total with their next victory, while Buffalo is creeping up on its number and looks good for the over as well.

Buffalo is now 25-to-1 to win the AFC, according to Westgate, tied for sixth with Jacksonville. They're getting 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, getting more respect than the 80-to-1 they opened the season at and even the 60-to-1 they were at last year.

Sign Up at Heritage Sports and see the cashier this College Football season!

The Jets have been the second-longest longshot in the AFC for most of the season and are currently 400-to-1 to win the conference and 1,000-to-1 to shock the world. Only the winless 49ers and Browns have longer odds.

As far as this matchup is concerned, Buffalo was just a 2.5-point favorite when the early numbers were released, opened at 3.5 at a few spots have largely held serve as a 3-point road 'chalk.' The total opened at 42.5 and there are some 43s out there now.

The Bills are in the -155/-170 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession on the road just to flirt with a push, while backing the Jets outright will get you +145 at most shops.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday evening.

"Public is fading the Jets again, but the sharp money that has showed up is on New York," Cooley said. "We currently have 75 percent of the tickets on Buffalo, but the money handle slightly favors the home squad."

INJURY CONCERNS

New York defenders Mo Wilkerson and Morris Claiborne each didn't practice due to foot injuries and are questionable to play. Corner Buster Skrine, who has had a rough season when out there, cleared concsussion protocol and will play. Tackle Brandon Shell (neck) is doubtful.

Buffalo got better news up front with guard Richie Incognito and center Eric Wood set to play through ankle issues. Benjamin is a question mark after arriving from Charlotte, but if he's healthy enough to go, I'd expect him to see the field, particularly in red zone packages.

RECENT MEETINGS (Buffalo 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; UNDER 5-3)

9/10/17 Bills 21-12 at Jets (BUF -7, 42.5)
1/1/17 Jets 30-10 vs. Bills (NY +3.5, 43)
9/15/16 Jets 37-31 at Bills (NY +1, 40.5)
1/3/16 Bills 22-17 vs. Jets (BUF +3, 42)
11/12/15 Bills 22-17 at Jets (BUF +2.5, 42.5)
11/24/14 Bills 38-3 vs. Jets (BUF -2.5, 42.5)
10/26/14 Bills 43-23 at Jets (BUF +3.5, 38)
11/17/13 Bills 37-14 vs. Jets (BUF +2, 39.5)

BILLS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

Buffalo is favored on the road for the first time this season. The Bills are 1-2 SU as the visitors and 1-1-1 ATS. They were 1-2 last season, both outright and against the number, losing 30-10 as 3.5-point favorite against these Jets in the regular-season finale.

JETS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

New York is 5-7 SU/ 8-3-1 ATS in this role under Bowles, defeating Miami and Jacksonville outright this season and covering all four games in which they've caught points at home this season when you count the solid showings against last year's Super Bowl squads, New England and Atlanta.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 10 currently has the Jets as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tampa Bay. The Bills host the Saints and will be a home underdog since New Orleans was installed as a 2.5-point 'chalk'.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Bills at Jets
Covers.com

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3, 42.5)

The Buffalo Bills aim to grab a share of the division lead while giving the spiraling New York Jets plenty of space in the cellar on Thursday, when the AFC East rivals meet at MetLife Stadium. Buffalo, which is off to its best start since 2008, has won two in a row to remain one-half game behind first-place New England while New York has dropped three in a row following a promising 3-2 start.

Bills rookie coach Sean McDermott was all smiles this week and added he's "extremely proud" of his club but cautioned that "nobody gives out awards for 5-2." Perhaps, but Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin and is third in the league with 115 points allowed, and continued opportunistic defensive play like that could go a long way in helping the team end its 17-season playoff drought. The Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 setback against Atlanta. "Too many mistakes in the fourth quarter," New York coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "Can't happen. Can't put the ball on the ground. Can't have timely mistakes."

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-1.5) - Jets (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Bills -2

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number was bet down slightly to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 42 and was bumped up a full point to 43 early in the week before dropping slightly to 42.5 on Thursday morning. View the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Bills - S J. Poyer (Probable, Knee), G R. Incognito (Probable, Ankle), C E. Wood (Probable, Ankle), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, Hamstring), TE C. Clay (Doubtful, Knee), LB R. Humber (Out Indefinitely, Thumb), S C. Anderson (Out, Arm), TE K. Towbridge (I-R, Ankle).

Jets - T B. Shell (Questionable, Neck), CB B. Skrine (Questionable, Concussion), CB M. Claiborne (Questionable, Foot), RB M. Forte (Questionable, Knee), DL M. Wilkerson (Questionable, Shoulder), S T. Brooks (Questionable, Hamstring), OL B. Qvale (Questionable, Toe), WR J. Kerley (Questionable, Possible Suspension), FB L. Thomas (Out, Concussion), LB L. Mauldin (Questionable, Back), TE J. Leggett (Out, Knee), CB X. Coleman (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Peake (Out, Ankle), LB D. Donahue (Out, Elbow), LB E. Robinson (I-R, Groin), TE C. Gragg (I-R, Knee), WR Q. Enunwa (I-R, Neck), S D. Middleton (I-R, Pectoral), CB B. Keeton (I-R, Knee), CB J. Clark (I-R, Knee), WR B. Estime (I-R, Achilles), WR D. Smith (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U): LeSean McCoy recorded season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (151) while registering his third touchdown in two games during Sunday's 34-14 romp over Oakland. The versatile 29-year-old added at least six receptions for the fourth time this season and rolled up 159 yards from scrimmage in Buffalo's season-opening 21-12 win over New York. Tyrod Taylor, who has impressed McDermott with a pair of strong performances since the team's bye week, threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo's 37-31 setback against New York on Sept. 15, 2016. The Bills added a jolt to their passing game by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Frustrations are mounting as the losses pile up for New York, which saw veteran Matt Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons. Josh McCown, who recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent), has thrown nine touchdown passes in his last four games after being limited to three in his first four. Robby Anderson, who leads the team with 435 receiving yards, has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-1 in Bills last 10 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC East.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road fave Bills are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 51 percent of the totals selections.