NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 3rd, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
ATLANTA (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) - 11/3/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Atlanta: 1-11 ATS as a favorite
Tampa Bay: 12-6 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points
StatFox Super Situations
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY
Play Under - Any team against the total after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
NFL Week 9
Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4) — Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Atlanta Falcons (5-3 SU; 5-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4 SU; 3-4 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Atlanta (-4); Total set at 51.5
The NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 9 of the NFL season with the hopes of avenging their lone loss within division play as they head to Tampa to play the Bucs. Tampa Bay went into Atlanta in Week 1 and came away with a 31-24 victory as small road underdogs and that didn't sit well with the Falcons at all.
Since then, Atlanta has played a top tier brand of football this year and it's not hard to make a case that they shouldn't have lost a game since then. But with the NFC South getting tighter and tighter each week, this is a critical game for both sides.
The Falcons currently have the best offense in the league in terms of yards per game (425.2) and points scored per game at 32.8. That's a lethal combination for opposing defenses to try and slow down and the fact that the Falcons have put up 30 or more points in five of their seven games since that Week 1 to Tampa has to be concerning to Bucs fans.
Tampa Bay's defense is a bottom tier unit in both yards allowed per game (390) and points allowed per game (27), so on paper it looks like the Falcons will easily be able to get their revenge.
However, we've seen quite a few sloppy football games this year on TNF as the short week of rest and prep time definitely appears to have some sort of effect on teams and I wouldn't be so quick to rule that out as the case here.
In Tampa's three wins this year it's been their defensive play that's taken center stage. They've allowed 24, 17 and 14 points in their three victories, compared to giving up 30, 27, 37, and 40 in their four losses.
For all the headlines and love that offensive players like QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans get in the media, internally, the Bucs know that the success of their team depends heavily on how well their defense plays on a given day. That unit was able to do enough to keep the Falcons in check in Week 1, but that was also before Atlanta's offense really got on this roll and this week will bring a whole different set of challenges for Tampa Bay.
However, don't be surprised to see Tampa rise up to the challenge as all three of their victories have come when they went into the game as underdogs like they are this week. Atlanta's defense has had plenty of their own issues this year having allowed 30+ points five times already – a fact largely covered up by how well their offense has played.
Winston and company were the first to put up 30+ on the Falcons this year and with this time being at home, I do expect the Bucs to have some success. Yet, while I do lean on grabbing the points with the home underdog on the side, it's this total that looks to be the better play.
As I mentioned earlier, TNF games are no strangers to sloppy football and this game won't be immune. Already nearly 70% of the money on this total has come in on the high side of this number according to VegasInsider.com as we've got two teams that statistically allow plenty of points, and one (Atlanta) that's the highest scoring team in the league.
But this game could get nasty and have a playoff feel to it with Tampa's hopes of a division title likely hanging in the balance, and going against the grain, I believe these two defenses will show up much better than the majority believe.
Four of the last five meetings in Tampa Bay between these two have cashed 'under' tickets, and the Falcons are on a 5-12-1 O/U run in their last 18 away from home. Atlanta is also 3-10 O/U after allowing 30+ points and have got a 3-9-1 O/U run going in division games, while Tampa is on a 3-8 O/U run in division games themselves.
Even with a short week to prep, the talk in both organizations is that their defensive play as to get much better and we could see that start this week. The total currently has that nice hook on a key number of “51” for 'under' players and that's how I see this game ending up.
Best Bet: Atlanta/Tampa Bay Under 51.5 points
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playing in front of the home audience usually means something. But, that does not seem to apply to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dropping a 30-24 decision to Oakland this past Sunday the Bucs are winless at home this season and have now lost 17 of 20 at Raymond James Stadium with a money-burning 5-15 record against the betting line.
Tampa Bay's 25th-ranked defense allowing 27.0 points/game will hard pressed stopping high-flying Falcons with the best offenses (32.8 ppg) in the NFL powered by Matt Ryan at QB tossing 19 TD on 2636 yards and Devonta Freeman at running back grinding out 543 rushing yards, 3 TD while snagging 26 receptions for 192 yards, 2 additional majors.
Bucs 0-3 SU/ATS last three on Thursday, 1-5 SU/ATS last six in these mid-week games consider Falcons being offered at -3.5 points at Bovada.lv where new depositors benefit from a Free Sports Bet up to $250.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 51)
The Atlanta Falcons may own the NFL's top-ranked offense and reside on top of the NFC South, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had their number with Jameis Winston under center. The former Heisman Trophy recipient will look to guide the Buccaneers to their second series sweep of the Falcons in as many seasons on Thursday night as the division rivals clash at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.
Winston tossed four touchdown passes in a 31-24 season-opening victory over Atlanta on Sept. 11 and added two more in a 30-24 overtime loss to Oakland on Sunday. Trusted target Mike Evans reeled in a scoring strike against the Falcons and his six touchdown receptions are tied for the NFL lead.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan continued his stellar season with three touchdown passes in Sunday's 33-32 victory over Green Bay, capping his 32nd career game-winning drive with an 11-yard scoring strike to offseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu. Ryan, who leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest).
LINE: The Falcons opened as field goal road favorites and that jumped to -3.5. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 51.
WEATHER: The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is calling for partially cloudy skied with temperatures in the mid 70's with winds blowing NNE at 5 mph.
INJURIES: Falcons - DE D. Freeney (questionable), DT. G. Jarrett (questionable), G A. Levitre (questionable), S B. Poole (questionable), T. Coleman (doubtful), TE J. Tamme (out). Bucs - DT C. MacDonald (questionable), RB J. Rodgers (questionable), WR R. Shepard (questionable), DE W. Gholston (questionable), RB D. Martin (out).
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Having opened at three, and almost immediately moving to 3.5, it’s clear that everyone has been on Atlanta from the start for Thursday night’s matchup against the Bucs. Right now 70 percent of the action is on the Falcons, and I would be surprised if the line doesn’t get up to at least Atlanta -4." - Mick Sloan, GTBets.eu.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "At 2-5, even the Carolina Panthers have a mathematical shot at winning the NFC South. Atlanta is 5-2 and the Bucs are 3-4, making Thursday's contest an extremely important one. Tampa Bay won 31-24 in Atlanta in their respective openers, so it's interesting to note that the Falcons are 8-6 ATS in their last 14 in trying to avenge a loss versus an opponent." - Covers Expert AAA Sports.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Julio Jones has amassed an NFC-best 859 yards and is averaging 20.0 yards per catch, but the electric wideout was hobbled by an ailing knee and finished with 29 yards receiving for the second time this season. While Jones is expected to play on Thursday, running back Tevin Coleman (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out last week's tilt versus the Packers. Devonta Freeman more than picked up the slack with a rushing and receiving touchdown last week and has 100-plus scrimmage yards in two of his last three contests, although he was limited to just 20 yards on 11 carries in the season-opening loss.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): While Tampa Bay's passing game is pretty well defined, the backfield has remained in motion through most of the season due to injury. Jacquizz Rodgers filled in admirably for Doug Martin (hamstring) before sustaining a sprained foot versus the Raiders, perhaps opening the door for a three-man backfield of Antone Smith, Peyton Barber and Mike James. Linebacker Kwon Alexander recorded 14 tackles versus Oakland last week, his highest total since collecting 17 in the season opener at Atlanta.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
CONSENSUS: 76 percent of bets are on Atlanta while 73 percent of totals bets are on the Over.
TNF - Falcons at Bucs
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-4, 51)
Jameis Winston has won all three of his starts against the Falcons, so considering he’s 6-14 in his starts against the rest of the league, you might say the second-year quarterback has their number. He’s accounted for eight scores, six through three air and a pair with his legs, in the victories. His best game of the season came against them.
The top pick of the 2015 draft has been a tease of sorts, displaying his marvelous talent in flashes that have been frustratingly alternated with bouts of inconsistency.
Fortunately for Winston, Atlanta is back on the schedule, just before a halfway point in a season that could go either way for Tampa Bay. He opened the season by firing four touchdown passes against the Falcons, then threw four
interceptions the very next week at Arizona to begin a three-game losing streak. He’s only 22 years old, so by no means can you get carried away and call this a crossroads, but as far as this season is concerned, he could steer his team in the right direction by turning the corner at exactly this moment.
Coming off an average game in an OT loss to Oakland where he took what the defense gave him for three quarters and then bombed in the fourth and overtime, Winston will try and play to his strengths at home by continuing to own Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith. He leads the NFL in passer rating (136.7) on play action passes per Pro Football Focus, but is second-worst on drop-backs. As was the case at Florida State, he typically saves his best for last, playing best in the second half, where he’s thrown eight touchdowns against just two picks. The Bucs want him engaged and reacting, thinking on his feet as opposed to sitting back and trusting an offensive line that’s gotten him hit more than any other starter in the league.
The Falcons pulled off a 33-32 comeback win over Green Bay on Sunday by harassing Aaron Rodgers on third down and are looking to get after Winston despite the absence of Dwight Freeney, so it’s going to be on Winston to keep his team out of situations that can be taken advantage of. Getting the ball out quickly has been emphasized in practice this short week.
For Atlanta, a win here would allow it to take the NFC South by the throat, going up 2.5 games up on the Bucs and avoiding a situation where they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker. New Orleans, suddenly rejuvenated, are at San Francisco this weekend and may also make up ground. Considering what happened to Quinn’s group in his first season with the Falcons, when a 6-1 start ended 8-8 and without a playoff appearance, picking up a win here and restoring a healthy cushion would be invaluable.
Matt Ryan has to be sick of hearing he got outplayed by young Winston, especially since his output hasn’t been terrible. He threw for 397 yards against Tampa at home last year and opened this season with a 334-yard, two-touchdown effort. He’s enjoyed a terrific 2016, ranking tops in the NFC in QB rating (88.4), just behind Tom Brady (96.4) and Andrew Luck (88.9) thus far. Ryan’s big day against the Packers featured his 32nd career game-winning comeback and put him on the short list of MVP candidates approaching the halfway point. A great effort on the Thursday night stage would only aid that cause. Sportsbook.ag currently ranks him a distant second (+500) behind Brady (+110) in their current future odds.
Atlanta Falcons
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win NFC South: 2/5 to 2/7
Odds to win NFC: 15/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 20/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/1 to 9/1
Odds to win NFC: 100/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to 200/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Division odds for these rivals opened with both at 7-to-1, went to 8-to-1 entering Week 1 since the Panthers were so heavily favored (4-to-13) but are obviously different (reflected above) now that Carolina has fallen off. If you're bullish on the Bucs, now is the time to get in on that 9-to-1 future. Conference odds were each placed at 40-to-1, while being doubled to 80-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and have a considerably different look at the WestgateLV SuperBook now. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Falcons -2, opened at -3 this week and moved to -4 at most books as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 51 and continues to hover in that range.
INJURY CONCERNS
Falcons RB Tevin Coleman was a force out of the backfield with 95 receiving yards in the first meeting (117 total yards), but has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, leaving a heavier load for starter Devonta Freeman, who was held to a season-low 40 total yards (20 rushing, 20 receiving). TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) is also out, as is Freeney. Atlanta will have offensive standout Julio Jones and G Andy Levitre available.
Tampa Bay’s starting RB Doug Martin (96 total yards in Week 1) hasn’t played since the Falcons game on Sept. 18, while Jacquizz Rodgers, who took over this month and has run for 324 in his last three starts, has been ruled out with a foot injury. Veteran Antone Smith will start, backed by rookie Peyton Barber. DE William Gholston will be out there for the Bucs.
RECENT MEETINGS (Tampa Bay 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
9/11/16 Tampa Bay 31-24 at Atlanta (ATL -2.5, 47)
12/6/15 Tampa Bay 23-19 vs. Atlanta (TB -1, 46.5)
11/1/15 Tampa Bay 23-20 at Atlanta (ATL -8, 47.5)
11/9/14 Atlanta 27-17 at Tampa Bay (ATL -3, 47.5)
9/18/14 Atlanta 56-14 vs. Tampa Bay (ATL -6.5, 47)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Winston pass completion prop going over in addition to Mike Evans yardage.
Jameis Winston completions 21: (-110 o/u)
Matt Ryan passing yards 312.5: (-110 o/u)
Mike Evans receiving yards 85.5: (-110 o/u)
Julio Jones receiving yards 95.5: (-110 o/u)
Jameis Winston TD passes 1.5: (-135 over, +115 under)
Matt Ryan TD Passes 2: (-150 over, +130 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-190 TD, +170 other)
Total points: Falcons 27.5, Bucs 24 (-110 o/u)
FALCONS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
The Falcons are playing this role for the first time this season but are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS getting points on the road, so they've earned this respect. They were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a road favorite last year.
BUCS AS A HOME UNDERDOG
Tampa Bay was a pick'em at home in Sunday's OT loss against Oakland and were handled 27-7 by Denver on Oct. 2 so we'll see how they fare as a home dog here. In ’15, the Bucs were just 1-2 SU and ATS as a home favorite and have notoriously been terrible at Raymond James Stadium, which allowed them to pick high enough to land Winston.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 10 has the Falcons as 2.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia. The Bucs are back at home and have been placed as a 3-point favorite against Chicago.