NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 13th, 2016 6 from various handicappers and websites.
DENVER (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 4) - 10/13/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver at San Diego
Denver: 8-1 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field
San Diego: 8-19 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses
NFL Week 6
Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4) — Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half pts/game.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS)
We've already reached Week 6 in the NFL and that means that we will see much more divisional action as teams try to separate themselves.
The card begins with an AFC West showdown as the snake-bitten San Diego Chargers try to finally close out a game strong against the division-leading Denver Broncos.
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Denver (-3.5); Total set at 45.5
San Diego enters this week with a 1-4 SU record but they could very easily be 4-1 or even 5-0 SU right now.
The Chargers choked away a 21-point lead to lose in OT Week 1, gave up a game-winning TD in the final 90 seconds to the Colts in Week 3, choked away a 14-point lead with six minutes left vs. New Orleans, and missed a game-tying FG in the final minutes last week because of a botched snap.
They've lost three in a row by a combined eight points and you know that frustrating has to be at an all-time high in that San Diego locker room right now.
Denver suffered their first loss of the year last week as the Paxton Lynch era in Mile High might have officially begun. Lynch didn't look completely ready for the starters role in the 23-16 home loss to Atlanta, and reports indicate that he'll be back in the backup role this week as Trevor Siemian will return to face the Chargers.
That's got to be good news for Broncos fans this week, but San Diego has always played them tough regardless of who was playing QB and with the point spread hovering around a field goal, we could see another tight Chargers game this week.
Teams coming off their first loss after starting the season 3-0 SU or better can be a scary wager because there's always that unanswered question of how they'll react to a defeat. Being the defending Super Bowl champions you should expect the Broncos to handle it just fine, but going on the road in a short week to face a division rival that's desperate to get a win and close out a game well doesn't do them any favors.
In fact, as we get closer to kick-off, I expect many recreational NFL bettors to simply look at the standings, remember that Denver are the champs and have a great defense and have no problem laying the small number on the road.
However, as I discussed earlier, the Chargers have found ways to be in every game they've played this year and have then found different ways to blow it.
It's only a matter of time for teams like that to finally put it all together for the full 60 minutes, and knocking off the defending champs that are actually a division rival could be that jumpstart the Chargers need right now.
San Diego's offense ranks 8th in the NFL right now with 373.2 yards per game and although they'll be in tough against the Broncos defense, the fact that the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL in points per game (30.4), does bode well for them here.
Last week, Atlanta became the first team to score more than 20 points against Denver and there is no doubt that the Chargers coaching staff have been reviewing that film to see what they can implement into their own gameplan.
As an organization, San Diego has lost the last five meetings with the Broncos and have to view this game as a good of a chance as any to snap that streak. There is no more Peyton Manning to deal with, it's a home game, and they'll be up against a rookie QB who is coming back from injury. Getting points in a spot like that has to be intriguing to bettors.
But when you see that San Diego is on a 5-0 ATS run in division games, a 7-1 ATS run when coming off a loss, and a 4-0 ATS run after allowing 30+ points, grabbing the points here, becomes the only play.
Best Bet: Take San Diego +3.5
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Week Six of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first blemish. Broncos offense struggling to find its rhythm with rookie QB Lynch and ground game at a stand still lost 23-16 as -3.5 point home chalk to visiting Falcons. Meanwhile, San Diego Chargers lost its third straight, this time blowing a 17-9 third-quarter lead eventually falling 34-31 to the Raiders but did grab the loot as +3.5 point road underdogs.
Chargers saddled with 3-12 mark against the betting line in front of the home audience won't instill much confidence among bettors. Additionally, Bolts have a well documented poor record against the spread at home hosting a division rivals. They're on a 0-7 ATS skid, 1-9 ATS slide and 2-13 ATS stretch the past fifteen.
On the other side, sports bettors are well aware of success Denver has had in this situation. The Broncos are an eye-popping 10-0 ATS on the road vs a division opponent, 14-1 ATS last fifteen as a division visitor. Broncos have also made their mark in Chargers back-yard recently posting a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record. One final betting nuggets, Broncos have enjoyed Thursday Night Football going 8-1 SU/ATS last nine under the bright light's.
Broncos opened -2.5-point road favorite but with Siemian expected to return for Thursday Night Football odds have ticked-up to -3.0 and could inch higher.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45.5)
Thursday's nationally televised contest pitting the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos against the San Diego Chargers would hold even more water had the latter followed up the first 58 minutes of their games by avoiding being doused over the final two. After seeing three leads evaporate after the two-minute warning, the snake-bitten Chargers look to snap a 10-game skid versus AFC West rivals on Thursday when they host the Broncos.
"You can't make this stuff up," quarterback Philip Rivers said after San Diego was felled by a botch hold on a game-tying attempted field goal in a 34-31 setback to Oakland on Sunday. "You think, 'Is there any other way we can find a way to do this?' " The path to right the ship will be tough versus Denver, which has won nine of the last 10 encounters between the clubs and is seething after absorbing its first loss of the season with a 23-16 setback to Atlanta. Quarterback Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is expected to be at the helm Thursday after sitting out versus the Falcons, but special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as interim coach with Gary Kubiak being diagnosed with a complex migraine condition.
LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the betting week for this Thursday night contest as 2.5-point road favorites but were bet up to 3-point faves on Monday afternoon - which is where they sit now. The total opened at 45.5 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-2.5) - Chargers (+3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5
INJURY REPORT:
Broncos - S J. Simmons (Prob Thurs, wrist), T D. Stephenson (Prob Thurs, calf), TE V. Green (Prob Thurs, calf), QB T. Siemian (Prob Thurs, shoulder), CB K. Webster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), LB D. Ware (Late Oct, elbow), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).
Chargers - P D. Kaser (Prob Thurs, hip), G O. Franklin (Ques Thurs, knee), LB D. Perryman (Ques Thurs, shoulder), T J. Barksdale (Ques Thurs, foot), T K. Dunlap (Ques Thurs, undisclosed), G C. Hairston (Ques Thurs, groin), RB D. McCluster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), CB C. Mager (Ques Thurs, shoulder), CB B. Flowers (Out Thurs, concussion), CB J. Verrett (Out For Season, knee), S J. Addae (Late Oct, collarbone), LB N. Czubnar (I-R, knee), LB M. Te'o (I-R, achilles), RB D. Woodhead (I-R, knee), WR K. Allen (I-R, knee), WR J. Herndon (I-R, knee), DT Z. Carlis (I-R, knee), T T. Johnstone (I-R, undisclosed), RB B. Oliver (I-R, achilles), G D. Clark (I-R, knee), C C. Watt (Elig Week 7, knee), LB T. Marcordes (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Cumberland (I-R, achilles), DT C. Wray (I-R, foot), NT S. Lissemore (I-R, shoulder), WR S. Johnson (I-R, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: This may come as a huge surprise...but it's expected to be sunny with a zero percent chance of precipitation on Thursday evening in San Diego. Temperatures will be in the mid-70's with humidity values hovering around 75 percent.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Although the quarterback situation has been answered for Thursday, Denver still has many questions regarding its running game after it failed to exploit the Falcons' 30th-ranked defense. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense (83.4 yards per contest). Demaryius Thomas has found the end zone in each of his last three games overall and had a touchdown reception in each of his last three meetings with San Diego.
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday, but four turnovers proved too much to overcome. Former first-round selection Melvin Gordon has struggled to find the handle on the ball, fumbling for the second time in as many weeks on Sunday and eighth time in 19 career games. "(Gordon) can't put the ball on the ground," coach Mike McCoy said via the San Diego Union-Tribune. "(His) fumbles won't affect his usage now. He's our back, and he's going to get going." The 23-year-old Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 6.
* Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Broncos with 64 percent of the picks on the road favorites. Over is leading the way in totals wagers with 57 percent of the selections
TNF - Broncos at Chargers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Denver (-3, 45) at San Diego
From Sept. of 2012 until last November, the Broncos never lost consecutive games. Peyton Manning’s longest losing streak on the team he retired a champion with was just that, two games. Brock Osweiler dropped back-to-back games in December, which might explain why team president John Elway was so hesitant to break him off in order to keep him.
Denver’s perfect run ended last week when rookie Paxton Lynch struggled in place of Trevor Siemian, but he’s expected to start against San Diego. Officially listed as ‘questionable,’ Siemian’s availability may not officially be known until right before kickoff, but all signs point to him having overcome his shoulder injury enough to open under center.
Lynch had a strong performance in closing out the Bucs when Siemian first went down, but his first start was rough. The Falcons put the Broncos in an early hole and capitalized on their edge, forcing checkdowns in addition to two Lynch fumbles and an interception. Although the rookie still took enough snaps at practice to be ready for what would be his first road start, Denver wants old reliable, Siemian, out there as long as there’s no threat he’ll hurt himself any worse.
It’s taken all of four starts, plus Lynch’s bad one, for the 24-year-old to become the undisputable No. 1 quarterback for the defending champs. Each of his starts got progressively better until he was injured in Tampa. He was 5-for-7 and had already thrown for a score, one week after he burned the Bengals for four. Siemian has thrown 57 passes without being intercepted and has quickly earned the trust of head coach Gary Kubiak, which is another reason you’ll likely see him out there.
Kubiak fell ill after Sunday’s home loss to Atlanta, landing in the hospital with what is being diagnosed as a “complex migraine.” Although he’s been released, Kubiak didn’t accompany the Broncos to San Diego, so the team has dedicated this game to him. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as the interim head coach while defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will run their collective units, so Kubiak’s absence shouldn’t be too large a factor, but that’s why having Siemian out there is so important.
“I’d be lying to you if I said it wasn’t an adjustment for us,” Siemian told the Denver Post. “We missed him for sure, but I think everybody’s trying to do their best to pick up the slack, coaches and players included. That’s what we’re trying to do. It’s not the same without him here.”
For the host Chargers, this Thursday night showcase offers one final opportunity to save their season. San Diego has dropped four of five games, suffering each of their setbacks despite enjoying a second-half league. The Bolts defense hasn’t been able to get stops when they’ve needed to and the offense has turned it over in critical spots.
Incredibly, San Diego has scored more points than any NFL team except Atlanta and has collectively outscored opponents 152-142, but winning has eluded it in excruciating fashion. Philip Rivers has been visibly frustrated enough to yell at teammates on the field and the sidelines, emotions spilling over. The front office was mad enough about kicker Josh Lambo laughing it up with Sebastian Janikowski after Sunday’s 34-31 loss that they asked him to apologize to teammates so that those who got the wrong idea about it wouldn’t harbor animosity.
The entire Chargers organization is currently wound tighter than an entire waiting room at your local chiropractor, so this could indeed be Mike McCoy’s last game. Considering they hit the road after this one and won’t be back for another game at Qualcomm until Nov. 6, we could be seeing a drastically different group in a few weeks depending on what goes down on Thursday night.
Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC West: 3/2 to 5/7
Odds to win AFC: 9/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 12/1
San Diego Chargers
Season win total: 7 (Over -185, Under +165)
Odds to win AFC West: 8/1 to 60/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Because the Broncos QB situation was such an unknown entering this season, you can see that these figures from the WestgateLV SuperBook continue to be tweaked to avoid losses. The preseason win total for Denver now looks to be a little light, but AFC West, AFC and Super Bowl futures that are adjusted weekly have been. Meanwhile, if you've got blind faith that the Chargers are going to turn things around, the odds have never been better to try and buy yourself an island by backing a resurgence no one else sees coming. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Broncos -3, though the WestgateLV SuperBook briefly had it available at -2.5. Currently, Denver is -3 at most books with a number of 3.5s out there. The total appears to have settled at 45 after opening at 46 at some spots. 45.5 is out there as well.
INJURY CONCERNS
Demariyus Thomas (hip) has been fighting through pain, but has been targeted seven times in each of the last four contests, making 22 catches. He was contained to just 49 yards against Atlanta, catching a touchdown but finishing with a season-low 9.8 yards per reception, so we'll see if that dip in production is tied to Lynch or discomfort after this one. Howerver, he's not listed on Denver's injury report, which outside of Siemian, looks pretty clean. Standout LB DeMarcus Ware remains out with a forearm injury, while special teams captain Kayvon Webster (hamstring) is also questionable.
San Diego is far more banged up, listing right tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) and left guard Orlando Franklin as 'questionable.' Backup tackle Chris Hairston (groin) is also listed, so the Chargers could be really thin up front. Defensively, LB Denzel Perryman (shoulder) is 'questionable' after missing the Oakland loss, while CB Brandon Flowers will miss his third straight game due to a concussion. Fellow corner Craig Mager (shoulder) is questionable too. They've already lost Jason Verrett and LB Manti Te'o for the season off the defense in addition to top WR Keenan Allen, RB Danny Woodhead and guard Chris Watt for the season.
BIG NIGHT FOR BOLTS BACKS?
After Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman diced the Broncos defense for 286 yards on Sunday, every team on their schedule figures to feature backs making plays out of the backfield to try and keep the pass rush off balance and isolate playmakers on linebackers as opposed to challenging an elite secondary. San Diego has featured Melvin Gordon even more since losing Woodhead in Week 2, but really doesn’t have a dependable second back between small-ish veteran Dexter McCluster and rookie Kenneth Farrow. They’ll have to improvise with Rivers working the ball around to his receivers and tight ends, so don’t expect similar results.
“It’s just not going to happen week in and week out,” star LB Von Miller told Denver reporters. It was something they got us on Sunday. It was that Sunday. That was one day out of the month. One game.”
Denver hadn't surrendered more than 20 points in a game since Week 15 of last season, which includes last year's Super Bowl run, a span of nine games. They haven't given up more than 21 points to the Chargers since Nov. 2012, a span of six games. That makes the total point prop listed below an eyebrow-raiser.
RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
1/3/16 Denver 27-20 vs. San Diego (DEN -10, 42)
12/6/15 Denver 17-3 at San Diego (DEN -5.5, 44.5)
12/14/14 Denver 22-10 at San Diego (DEN -4.5, 49)
10/23/14 Denver 35-21 vs. San Diego (DEN -9.5, 50.5)
1/12/14 Denver 24-17 vs. San Diego (DEN -7.5, 54.5)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.
Trevor Siemian completions 21.5: (-110 o/u)
Melvin Gordon TD: (+120 yes/-140 under)
Philip Rivers passing yards 258.5: (-110 o/u)
Demariyus Thomas receiving yards 77.5: (-110 o/u)
Trevor Siemian TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Philip Rivers TD Passes 1.5: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 5.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-155 TD, +135 other)
Total points: Broncos 24.5, Chargers 21.5 (EVEN/-110 over, -120/-110 under)
BRONCOS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
The Broncos are 1-0 in this situation this season, covering easily at the Bucs with a 27-7 win as 3.5-point favorites. They were 5-1 in 2015, but covered just three of those games (3-2-1 ATS). Included in those results is a 17-3 win at Qualcomm last Dec. 6.
CHARGERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG
The Chargers will be a home favorite for the first time this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15. In addition to the 17-3 loss to Denver, they fell at home to Kansas City 33-3. San Diego has lost its last four games as a home ‘dog, with two of those losses coming at the hands of the Broncos. Its last win came against Seattle on Sept. 14, 2014.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 has the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog as they head south to face Atlanta. Denver is back in prime time, hosting Houston on Monday night as they reunite with Osweiler. The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites.