NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 16

NFL Week 7

Jets (1-5) @ Patriots (4-2) — Pats won five of last six series games, with three of last four decided by exactly 3 points; Jets lost five of last six visits here, with only win in ’10 playoffs- they lost last three visits here by 9-3-3 points. Patriots scored 80 points in last two games since 41-14 loss to Chiefs, scoring seven TD’s on 23 drives- they’ve been +3 or better in three of four wins, lost field position by 8-19 yards. Jets have only three takeaways for season, are -9 in turnovers. Pats are 7-5 in last 12 games as divisional home favorite; they’re 0-1 as home faves this year. Jets are 8-11-1 in last 20 games as road underdog. Both teams suffered key injuries Sunday; Milliner for Jets, Mayo/Ridley for NE- they’re all out for year. Keep in mind that over is now 15-4 in primetime games this season.

Armadillosports.com

Patriots host struggling Jets
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW YORK JETS (1-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: New England -9.5, Total: 46.5

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan.

In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game.

TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time.

Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets.

RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Jets at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Patriots have come back to life over the past two weeks while the Jets are ready for the dirtnap after losing five consecutive games. Even though New England owns just a one-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East entering Week 7 action, the Patriots are starting to find their groove offensively and are ready to take control of the division they have owned for over a decade.

Just two weeks ago, Bill Belichick’s squad sat at 2-2 and looking for answers after getting blown out at Kansas City in front of a nationally televised audience. The Patriots put that loss behind them fast by routing the Bengals, 43-17 as 2½-point home underdogs to forge back above the .500 mark. New England jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead and never looked back to hand Cincinnati its first loss of the season.

The Patriots broke a tie atop the AFC East with the Bills in last Sunday’s 37-22 road victory, as New England closed anywhere from a one-point favorite to a one-point underdog. After the Pats opened up the week as a three-point favorite, the alleged “sharp” money came in on Buffalo, pushing that line down in spite of the Bills losing 19 of the previous 20 meetings to New England since 2004. Tom Brady diced up the Buffalo defense for four touchdowns and 361 yards, but running back Stephan Ridley was lost for the season with a torn ACL as the Pats rushed for just 50 yards.

The Jets enter Gillette Stadium on Thursday seeking some kind of answer to their problems over the past five games – all losses. New York held off Oakland in Week 1 at home, then jumped out to a 21-3 lead at Green Bay the following week. Since that time, the Jets have been outscored, 141-56, while barely covering against the Packers as 7½-point underdogs. Some of the lowlights include a 31-0 beatdown at San Diego and home losses to the Bears and Lions, but New York hung with Denver last week before a late touchdown torched Jets’ backers.

New York grabbed an early 7-3 lead over Denver with a Geno Smith touchdown pass to Jace Amaro, but the Broncos ran off 21 straight points on three Peyton Manning touchdown strikes. The Jets cut the deficit to 24-17 in the fourth quarter and had an opportunity to cover as 10-point underdogs until Aqib Talib picked off Smith and hustled into the end zone for a pick-six and a 31-17 Broncos’ victory. Rex Ryan’s team owns a 1-5 ATS mark, but has lost just once by double-digits this season.

Last season, the Jets hung around in a rainy Thursday night visit to Foxboro in Week 2, falling to the Patriots, 13-10 to cash as 10½-point ‘dogs. New England failed to score in the second half, but managed to intercept Smith three times and recover a Jets’ fumble. However, the Patriots couldn’t break away from the Jets, as New England was held out of the end zone for the final 57 minutes of the game.

The Jets knocked off the Patriots in the second meeting at Met Life Stadium last October, 30-27 in overtime to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs. New England was held out of the end zone again in the second half, but picked up six points from the leg of kicker Stephen Gostkowski to send the game into overtime. Nick Folk kicked the winner in the extra session, as the Jets held the ball for nearly 46 minutes in the victory. The win snapped a five-game skid to the Patriots that dated back to 2011, but New York has cashed in each of its past two visits to Gillette Stadium, both as a double-digit ‘dog.

The Patriots have covered just three of their previous eight games against division foes since the start of 2013, but are 7-3 ATS in this stretch in the role of a home favorite. The Jets have been a below average road underdog since 2011, posting a 7-11-1 ATS record, including a 1-1 ATS mark this season. New York has performed well off a home underdog loss since 2012, going 4-1 ATS, but the Jets have lost 10 of their past 12 games away from Met Life Stadium.

From a totals standpoint, the Patriots have hit the ‘over’ in three straight games, while holding the Raiders and Bengals to a combined 26 points in two home victories. There are no distinctive total trends as far as the Jets are concerned, but this team has broken the 19-point barrier just once this season, while giving up 31 points in each of their two road losses.

Through 19 primetime games this season, 15 have gone ‘over’ the total, including each of the last four played on Thursday night. Favorites have owned Thursdays this season, winning and covering five of six times, with five of those games decided by 20 points or more.

The Patriots are listed as 9½-point favorites at most books, with several 10’s floating around. The total is set at 44½, but there is an 80% chance of rain in Foxboro on Thursday night, so that total may drop closer to game time. Kickoff is set for 8:25 PM EST and the game can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

New England Patriots at New York Jets

So far this season, backing the midweek home favorite has been the right choice as they're 4-1 SU/ATS. This Thursday, New England Patriots (-10) tries to improve the record when they host New York Jet. Playing with three days rest can be extremely difficult on a visiting squad. Over the past 5 years Thursday road teams have won just 23 of 59 regular season games played. Spread wise, the travelling troops held their own posting a 27-32 mark against the betting line including 16-20 ATS as underdogs. Going with Jets might be considered a little nuts. But, Jets showed spunk against Broncos Sunday and Patriots did loose both Mayo, Ridley to injury this past week. Now, Jets aren't likely to win in Patriots back yard. However, were not about to toss the 10 point spot knowing Patriots are on a 2-8 ATS slide as DD faves, Jets covered both games vs Patriots last year and have a 3-1 ATS stretch last four trips to Gillette Stadium.

Thursday Night Football: Jets at Patriots
By Covers.com

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10, 44)

Looking like a team whose time had passed just a couple of weeks ago, the New England Patriots are back atop the AFC East and preparing to face an opponent they have dominated in recent years. The Patriots aim to pad their division lead when they host the New York Jets on Thursday. New England has won six of the past seven meetings, but New York claimed a 30-27 overtime win in last season's second showdown.

The Patriots were all but counted out after a 41-14 drubbing by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night in Week 4, but they've claimed two straight impressive victories, including a 37-22 win at Buffalo on Sunday to move to the top of the standings. While the Jets have lost five straight since a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, they gave defending AFC champion Denver a scare before falling 31-17 on Sunday. The Patriots have won 32 straight home games against AFC opponents, the longest streak since the NFL merger in 1970.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Patriots -9.5, the line has since shifted to -10 where it sits currently. The toal opened as 45, but has sinced dropped a point to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Jets - WR David Nelson (Ques-Ankle) Patriots - DL Dominique Easley (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Ques-Ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Rain is suppose to be hitting Gillette Stadium hard from Wednesday night straight through till kickoff. Rain is supposed to open up right around kickoff and dropping 15 mm of rain. Winds are expected to be blowing between five and six mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: The Patriots made it two straight wins to take over first place in the AFC East and now start a three-game homestand. The Pats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points. New York has failed to cover a single game this season after getting frontdoored last Sunday. The road team has covered 4 of last 5 in the series with New England.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): New York ranks 30th in the league in total offense (303.3 yards per game) and last in passing (182.2) but coach Rex Ryan insists he is committed to second-year quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has thrown seven interceptions — at least one in every game — and has completed only 57.1 percent of his passes, so the Jets have leaned heavily on running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to power the offense. The Jets rank sixth in the league in total defense but 25th in scoring defense, largely because of unfavorable field position thanks to 12 giveaways.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): After a disastrous game against the Chiefs, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense have come back to life the past two games, though the loss of running back Stevan Ridley is a big one. Shane Vereen becomes the featured back with Ridley out, but Brady might have to go to the air more often. The Patriots lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin in large part because of an AFC-best seven interceptions and will try to force Smith into the type of poor decisions he is prone to make.

TRENDS:

*Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 14-3 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
*Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New England.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 57.48 percent of Covers users are backing the Patriots -10, with 64.14 percent taking the over.