NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 2

NFL Week 5

Vikings (2-2) @ Packers (2-2) — Minnesota won 41-28 in Bridgewater’s first career start; he sprained ankle late in game, is expected to play here, but it is his first road start. Vikings scored 34-41 points in their two wins, 7-9 in losses- they ran ball for 186-241 yards in their two wins, 54-59 in losses. Pack is 23-15 in last 38 games as a home favorite, 3-5 in last eight. Vikings are 8-4 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is 7-1-1 in last nine series games, 4-0-1 in last five here, winning by 4-38-9-14 points; their OL struggles show up in running game- they’re averaging 73 ypg on ground, not good. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread. Three of four Viking games stayed under total; three of four Packer games went over.

Armadillosports.com

NFC North heats up
By Sportsbook.ag

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Green Bay -9, Total: 47

Division rivals clash on Thursday night when the Vikings visit the Packers.

Minnesota comes into this one having beaten Green Bay just once in the nine meetings between these teams since the start of the 2010 season. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS at Lambeau Field during that span, the lone ATS win coming in a 26-26 tie last November while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was out with an injury.

While Green Bay has averaged 32 points in its past nine meetings in this series, Minnesota has averaged fewer than 20. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is questionable after having thrown for 317 yards in his first NFL start Sunday, a 41-28 win over Atlanta. He was carted to the locker room with a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter, and will likely be a game-time decision. If Bridgewater can't play, Christian Ponder will start under center.

The Packers are one of only five NFL teams averaging fewer than 320 total yards per game in 2014, but they’ve faced top-6 defenses in three of their first four games. Mike McCarthy is 35-17 ATS versus division opponents as the coach of the Packers. He is, however, just 13-23 ATS versus defenses that allow at least seven passing yards per attempt with the team.

Two of the past three games played between these two teams in Green Bay have gone Under the total.

In addition to Bridgewater, the Vikings could be without top LB Chad Greenway (ribs) for a second straight week. The most notable injuries for the Packers are LBs Clay Matthews (hamstring) and Brad Jones (thigh), who are both listed as questionable.

The Vikings have been very up-and-down to start the year scoring 75 points in two wins, but only 16 points in two defeats. But their offense has not looked better than it did in Week 4 against the Falcons. Minnesota’s running back duo of Matt Asiata (159 rush yards, 3.4 YPC, 3 TD) and Jerick McKinnon (142 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 0 TD) combined for 241 yards on the ground against Atlanta. They’ll lean on the running game again, as the Packers are allowing an NFL-worst 176.0 rushing yards per game.

QB Teddy Bridgewater (467 pass yards, 9.3 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT) was sharp in his first career start, going 19-of-30 for 317 yards with no turnovers. He added 27 yards and a touchdown on the ground for his team. Bridgewater makes high-percentage passes and is a quick decision maker. That should help him against a ball hawking Green Bay secondary that picked Jay Cutler off twice in Week 4.

Minnesota ranks ninth in the NFL in scoring defense (21.0 PPG allowed), but ranks 17th in total defense (354 YPG) and is tied for 30th in third downs (50%). Despite what happened against Atlanta, this is not the type of team to win a shootout, so the Vikings will need to control the clock against a potent Green Bay offense.

Aaron Rodgers (999 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 9 TD, 1 INT) told Packers fans to relax before their Week 4 meeting with the Bears, and that is exactly what they’ll do after Rodgers threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 38-17 road victory. WRs Jordy Nelson (33 rec, 459 yards, 3 TD) and Randall Cobb (21 rec, 239 yards, 5 TD) combined for 17 catches, 221 yards and four touchdowns in the game.

This air attack should find success against a Minnesota defense that allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt (20th in NFL), and Rodgers has dominated this team since 2010, going 7-1 with 2,391 passing yards (299 YPG), 21 TD and 3 INT. RB Eddie Lacy (161 rush yards, 3.0 YPC, 1 TD) rushed 17 times for 48 yards and a touchdown in the victory over Chicago, but he needs to run much better for his team to be successful. That should happen against a Minnesota team Lacy piled up 270 total yards and 2 TD against over the two meetings last year. The Vikings’ rush defense is allowing 113.3 yards per game (T-15th in NFL).

Green Bay’s defense, however, will likely be flying all over the field trying to confuse Teddy Bridgewater. They’ll apply pressure whenever they can in order to create turnover opportunities in their secondary. Both teams have protected the football well this season, as Minnesota has three turnover-free games, while Green Bay has not had more than one giveaway in a game this year.

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Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Packers
By Covers.com

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9, 47.5)

Aaron Rodgers implored anxious fans of the Green Bay Packers to "relax" and then went out and made sure they were able to do just that with a brilliant performance in a lopsided rout at bitter rival Chicago on Sunday. With a much brighter outlook surrounding the team, Rodgers and Green Bay will host another NFC North opponent when the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit on Thursday night. The Packers are 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, including a 26-26 tie at home last November.

Minnesota is hoping it won't have to start its third quarterback in as many weeks after rookie Teddy Bridgewater injured an ankle during last week's 41-28 victory over visiting Atlanta. Bridgewater, the No. 32 pick in this year's draft, threw for 317 yards and ran for a touchdown Sunday in his first career start, but exited the game in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said he is "hopeful" Bridgewater will play after an MRI exam came back clean, but the quarterback did sit out Monday's practice.

LINE HISTORY: After opening as Green Bay -10, the line has since dropped to -9 on Wednesday. The total has seen a big drop after opening at 50, it now rests at 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Vikings - LB Chad Greenway (Out-Ribs), QB Teddy Bridgewater (Ques-Thurs) Packers - WR Jarrett Boykin (Out-Knee).

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms in Green Bay. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Coming off the upset of Atlanta, Minnesota heads to Green Bay on short rest as big dog on Thursday. The Vikes are 1-5 ATS after scoring 30 or more points. Green Bay halted its two-game skid and has a short turnaround for its 3rd straight divisional game Thursday. The Pack are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games." Covers Expert Matt Fargo,

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Thursday night's game opened Green Bay 9.5 and to our surprise smart money came on the dog and currently we have -9 -105. Teddy Bridgewater sprained his ankle in the last game and even though the team says his ankle is doing much better he has yet to practice on Monday or Tuesday. If he cannot play Christian Ponder will get the start so you can expect the line to go to 10.5." Scott Kaminsky, The Greek.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Bridgewater was not the only rookie to make a big impression in Sunday's win. Running back Jerick McKinnon, a converted quarterback out of Georgia Southern, ran for 135 yards on 18 carries as Minnesota rolled up 241 of its 558 yards on the ground after failing to score a TD in its previous seven quarters. Jarius Wright added eight catches for 132 yards to help spark an offense that has already lost stud running back Adrian Peterson following allegations of child abuse as well as starting quarterback Matt Cassel and tight end Kyle Rudolph to injury. Bridgewater on Tuesday declined to give a percentage on his chances of playing and his unavailability would open the door for former first-round pick Christian Ponder.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Following pair of meager offensive outputs in losses sandwiched around a come-from-behind victory over the New York Jets, Rodgers was spectacular in the 38-17 romp in Chicago, throwing for 302 yards and fourth touchdowns while compiling a 151.2 passer rating. Jordy Nelson caught two more scoring passes and leads the league with 33 catches and 459 yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb also went over 100 yards receiving and added two touchdowns to give him five on the season. There are concerns about second-year back Eddie Lacy, who has yet to surpassed 48 yards in a game following his 1,178-yard campaign as a rookie. The defense also is struggling, allowing 235 yards rushing and 496 total to the Bears.

TRENDS:

*Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.
*Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 54.71 percent of Covers users are taking the Packers -9 with 69.8 percent taking the over.

Vikings at Packers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

As the calendar turns to October, 13 teams enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record, including the Vikings and Packers. These two NFC North rivals hook up at Lambeau Field on Thursday, each coming off impressive victories last week. All three teams in the division sit one game behind the Lions (3-1) starting play this week, as the Packers play their third straight contest within the NFC North.

After suffering an ugly 19-7 loss at Detroit in Week 3, Green Bay rebounded in a huge way by pounding Chicago at Soldier Field, 38-17 to cash as 1½-point favorites. The Packers finally picked up a road victory following highway defeats to the Seahawks and Lions, as Aaron Rodgers tossed four touchdown passes and completed 22-of-28 attempts for 302 yards. Even though Chicago racked up nearly 500 yards of offense and held the ball for over 36 minutes, the Packers’ defense intercepted Jay Cutler twice, handing the Chicago quarterback his 10th loss in his last 11 starts against Green Bay.

Minnesota picked up its first victory at TCF Bank Stadium by knocking off Atlanta as five-point home underdogs, 41-28. Teddy Bridgewater paced the Vikings’ offense in his first NFL start, throwing for 317 yards and leading Minnesota to eight scores (four touchdowns and four field goals). Bridgewater briefly left the game with a sprained ankle, but is expected to start on Thursday at Green Bay. The ‘over’ of 47½ was never in doubt, as the Vikings led the Falcons at halftime, 24-14, as Minnesota snapped a two-game losing streak.

Both meetings last season busted the ‘over,’ as the Packers increased a seven-point lead up to 24 points in the fourth quarter of a 44-31 victory at the Metrodome as 7½-point road favorites in October. The Vikings were limited to 243 yards of offense, but were aided by a 109-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Cordarrelle Patterson to open the game. Rodgers and Jordy Nelson hooked up for a pair of touchdowns to give the Packers their seventh win in eight tries against the Vikings.

The next matchup at Lambeau Field in November was anything but pretty, as the two teams finished in a 26-26 tie. Minnesota cashed as six-point underdogs, while Rodgers sat out with a broken collarbone. Following the home loss to the Packers a month earlier, the Vikings covered seven of their final nine games of the season, while snapping a four-game road losing streak against division foes with that tie. Minnesota blew a 23-13 fourth quarter lead as Green Bay evened the contest with a field goal in the final seconds of regulation. Both teams traded field goals in overtime, marking the first game in NFL history in which both teams scored but finished in a tie.

Since November of 2007, the Packers own a sparkling 18-2-1 SU record at home against division foes, as the two losses came to Chicago last season after Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter and to Minnesota in 2009. Green Bay has covered 15 of 21 times in this span with four of those ATS losses coming as a double-digit favorite. The Vikings have put together a 4-9 ATS mark in their past 13 NFC North games on the highway since 2010, while winning just once in 13 tries, coming at Detroit in 2012.

Adrian Peterson remains out for the Vikings due to his legal situation, as Jerick McKinnon busted out with 135 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Falcons, which included a 55-yard run. Matt Asiata found the end zone three times against Atlanta, while rushing for 78 yards, as Minnesota is somewhat trying to put together a decent backfield without Peterson, who will miss his fourth straight game.

From a totals standpoint, the Packers have cashed the ‘over’ in three of four games, while the Vikings hits the ‘under’ in their first three contests before last week’s scoring outburst and ‘over’ against Atlanta. The ‘over’ continues to cash in primetime games this season, hitting in 11 of 13 contests under the lights, including three of four Thursday night matchups.

The Packers are currently 8½-point favorites at most spots, while several 9’s are lingering. The total sits between 47½ and 48 and there is a 70% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-60’s. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.