SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) at DENVER (5 - 1) - 10/23/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
San Diego at Denver
San Diego: 29-14 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
San Diego @ Denver
The Chargers are 14-8 ATS as underdogs, 7-1 ATS as dogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 10-5 ATS as road dogs of 7½ to 10 points, 12-7 ATS overall on the road, 20-8 ATS when the total is 49½ points or higher, 4-2 ATS playing on Thursday and 10-4 ATS on the road when the total is 49½ or more. However, the Chargers are 3-6 ATS in October and 27-43 ATS after a divisional loss including 1-3 lately. San Diego is 8-4 Under after a divisional game. 4-0 Under after a divisional loss and 4-1 Under playing on Thursday night. The Broncos are 25-15 ATS overall, 19-6 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 24-11 overall as favorites, 14-7 ATS at home, 17-11 ATS versus AFC opponents and 21-8 ATS on grass. Denver is 86-54 Over as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 27-14 Over at home, 24-12 Over as favorites, 23-15 Over as home favorites of 7½ to 10 points, 112-72 Over at home, 18-11 Over versus AFC opponents, 52-34 Over in October, 100-51 Over versus winning teams and 10-1 Over in weeks 5 through 9.
NFL Week 8
Chargers (5-2) @ Broncos (5-1) — Battle for first place in AFC West; Denver is 5-1 in last six series games, beating San Diego 24-17 in playoffs here LY, after Bolts had won 27-20 in regular season. Chargers had 5-game win streak snapped by Chiefs Sunday; they’re 2-1 on road, losing by point at Arizona- their two losses are by total of four points. Denver is on serious roll, winning/covering all three games since their bye, scoring 38 ppg (13 TD’s on 36 drives); Broncos averaged 8.8/9.9/10.5 yards per pass attempt in last three home games- they’re 14-5 as home favorites in Manning era, 2-2 this year. Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-0 this year- they were dogs at Buffalo in Week 3. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 8-11 against spread. Last three Denver games went over total.
Armadillosports.com
Chargers at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The top two teams in the AFC West face off in Denver on Thursday night in a key divisional showdown for the upper-hand halfway through the season. The Chargers invade Sports Authority Field just one half-game behind the Broncos in their first meeting since Denver bounced San Diego from the playoffs last January.
Before we look back at that divisional playoff contest, the Broncos (5-1) are still riding a high after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s all-time touchdown record in a 42-17 rout of the 49ers. Denver easily cashed as 6 ½-point favorites to improve to 4-0 at home, which includes three victories over playoff teams from last season (Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco). Manning tosses four touchdown passes, marking the fifth time this season the Denver quarterback has thrown at least three touchdowns in a game.
The Chargers (5-2) were tripped up at home by the Chiefs last Sunday as San Diego’s five-game winning streak got snapped. In spite of that hot stretch, money initially came in on Kansas City, who opened as five-point underdogs, as that number dropped to three by kickoff. The Chargers led, 14-10 at halftime, but the Chiefs ran off 10 unanswered points in the third quarter to grab a 20-14 advantage. After the Lightning Bolts tied the game at 20-20, the Chiefs took the lead for good with a 48-yard field goal in the final minute to knock off San Diego, 23-20. The loss ended a six-game home winning streak over the Chiefs that dated back to 2008.
These division rivals met up three times last season, as the Broncos took two of the three matchups. In the regular season, Denver jumped out to a 28-6 lead at Qualcomm Stadium in November 2013, before the Chargers rallied late with a couple of touchdowns. The Broncos held on for a 28-20 triumph to cover as seven-point favorites, as Manning torched the Chargers’ secondary for four touchdowns. The Chargers avenged that home loss one month later as 10-point road underdogs in a 27-20 upset at Sports Authority Field. San Diego held the ball for nearly 39 minutes, while limiting the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing.
Denver and San Diego would lock horns again in the divisional playoff round after the Chargers knocked out the Bengals in the Wild Card round. The Broncos held off the Chargers, 24-17 to advance to the AFC Title game, as Denver built a 24-7 fourth quarter edge. San Diego scored 10 late points to cash as 8-point underdogs, finishing last season at 5-1-1 ATS in the road ‘dog role. All three meetings finished ‘under’ the total, but all three totals were totally inflated at 56, 56 ½, and 55.
This season, Mike McCoy’s squad owns a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as an underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time since Week 3 at Buffalo. Prior to the Kansas City loss, the Chargers cleaned up on plenty of garbage, beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders in three consecutive weeks, as those clubs have combined for just two wins this season.
Denver is riding a three-game ‘over’ streak, while finishing ‘over’ the total in three of four home contests this season. Thursday’s contest will be just the second time that John Fox’s team has a total above 50, as the season opener against the Colts barely went ‘over’ 53 as the Broncos won, 31-24. Denver has gone ‘under’ the total in five of the past six games dating back to last season with a total of 50 or higher.
Since Manning arrived in Denver in 2012, the Broncos have won 13 of 14 games against division foes, while posting an 8-5-1 ATS record. The Chargers have put together a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS record on the road within the AFC West since 2010, including an impressive 6-0 ATS mark as an underdog.
The ‘over’ continues to be on fire in primetime action, hitting in 18 of 22 games this season. This is by far the best Thursday night matchup as plenty of these games have been disappointing, as favorites have posted a 5-2 SU/ATS record in these contests, while the home clubs own the same 5-2 SU/ATS mark.
The Broncos are listed as eight-point home favorites, while that number continues to creep up after opening up at seven on Sunday night. The total sits at 51 ½, the highest total on a Thursday night game this season. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.
Broncos look to stay hot
By Sportsbook
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (5-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -8, Total: 51
The Chargers look to get back in the win column on Thursday night when they visit a red-hot Broncos team in search of a fourth straight victory.
San Diego hosted Kansas City in Week 7 and lost 23-20 on a game-winning field goal by Cairo Santos with just 21 seconds remaining. Meanwhile, Denver steamrolled San Francisco in a 42-17 home victory last week. Broncos QB Peyton Manning became the NFL’s all-time leader in touchdown passes during that game, but he is just 3-8 ATS versus the Chargers in his career, while San Diego QB Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS versus Denver.
Since 2012, the Broncos are 2-1 SU when hosting in this series, but the Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS in those games. Denver has won five of the past six games between these teams SU.
Over the past two seasons, San Diego is 11-3 ATS as an underdog, and the club is also 14-5 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders over the past three seasons. The Broncos, however, are 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over this same timeframe. They’re also 21-8 ATS in games played on a grass field during that time.
CBs Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) are both questionable to return for the Chargers in this game, while RBs Donald Brown (concussion) and Ryan Mathews (knee) remain out. RB Montee Ball (groin) will likely miss this game for the Broncos, but should be back in Week 9.
The Chargers had a golden opportunity to make a statement in their division, but they were unable to hold off the Chiefs last week. QB Philip Rivers (1,961 pass yards, 17 TD, 3 INT) had his worst game of the season, going 17-of-31 for 205 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The quarterback wasn’t as accurate as he has been this season, but he should be able to bounce back against this extremely beatable Broncos’ secondary.
After back-to-back games with over 100 rushing yards, RB Branden Oliver (316 rush yards, 2 TD) gained just 67 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC) last week. The Broncos’ defensive line has done a solid job of stopping the run this season, so this matchup is not favorable for the Chargers’ backup.
TE Antonio Gates (27 rec, 363 yards, 7 TD) continues to fight off Father Time, catching three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Chiefs. He’ll need to work the middle of the field successfully if the Chargers are going to win in Denver.
San Diego is allowing just 209.6 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 106.9 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). They’ll likely allow the Broncos to run the ball in order to have extra pass coverage.
Denver put on a dominant display Sunday night against the 49ers. Defensively, the Broncos didn’t force any turnovers but they did allow just 310 total yards to an offense that is capable of exploding on occasion. They also held the 49ers to just 3-of-13 on third down conversions. Denver is allowing just 74.3 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL), so they will make running the ball extremely tough on Branden Oliver.
QB Peyton Manning (1,848 pass yards, 19 TD, 3 INT) lit up the 49ers with 318 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game. It seems as though it doesn’t matter what defense he’s playing at this point, as Manning is capable of throwing on anybody, so the Chargers will have to drop their linebackers into coverage more than they’d like. T
hat means RB Ronnie Hillman (240 rush yards, 2 TD) will have plenty of room to run. He had 74 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against the 49ers. Hillman also caught four passes for 29 yards while proving not to be a liability in the pass-blocking department.
WR Demaryius Thomas (39 rec, 662 yards, 6 TD) continues to be Peyton Manning’s go-to-guy this season. He caught eight passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco. The Chargers will have a lot of trouble stopping somebody with his combination of size and speed.
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Two of the top teams in the AFC will get back to work on a short week when West Division rivals Denver and San Diego square off in Mile High City on Thursday night. Denver off a convincing win over the 49ers' oddsmakers have Manning and company 7.5 point favorite. Playing with three days rest is tough and can be extremely difficult on the visiting squad. Over the past 5 years the road team has won just 23 of 60 games played on Thursday. However, the travelling troops have held their own against the betting line posting a 28-32 ATS mark. Have the road team play a Thursday division game they're 19-13 against the number. Those betting numbers in hand along with the fact Chargers have made their mark when getting points covering thirteen of seventeen (13-3-1 ATS) and winning 27-10 as underdogs at this venue last December in a Thursday night affair veering in opposite direction of the betting market and siding with Bolts has merit. Besides, Denver hasn’t fared as well in the realm of NFL picks when the team is favored by more than a touchdown. This year alone the squad is just 1-2 ATS as home faves under those circumstances and since Manning's arrival the team is just 8-6-1 ATS laying 7.5 or more at Mile High.
Thursday Night Football: Chargers at Broncos
By Covers.com
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 51)
The new touchdown king of the NFL quarterbacks isn't getting much time to savor his record-breaking night, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos face a quick turnaround and a key division clash against the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. The Broncos are aiming for their fourth straight win after Manning passed for 318 yards and four TDs in a 42-17 win over San Francisco on Sunday night. Denver has a half-game cushion in the AFC West over San Diego, which had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 23-20 loss to Kansas City on Sunday.
Manning's 33rd game of four or more touchdowns gave him 510 career TD passes, moving him past Brett Favre (508) for the NFL's all-time lead. Both Manning (9-2) and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (4-1) have performed well on Thursday, though Rivers and San Diego outdueled Manning and the Broncos in a 27-20 victory on Thursday night last December. The teams have split their 10 meetings over the past five seasons, but the Broncos have won four of the past five.
LINE HISTORY: Denver has opened as 7.5-point home faves with a total of 51.
INJURY REPORT: Chargers - RB Donald Brown (questionable, concussion), DB Brandon Flowers (questionable, concussion), CB Jason Verrett (questionable, shoulder). Broncos - RB Montee Ball (questionable, groin).
WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north endzone at 3 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-3.25) + Broncos (-8.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -8.25
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has been like a second home for the Chargers where they are 6-3 SU and 8-0-1 ATS their last nine visits. With emotions running high for the Broncos last week following Peyton Manning’s record shattering performance, it would be no surprise to San Diego bounce back off last week’s poor performance and take this game right down to the wire." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this up at -7 and it bounced around between that and -7.5 for about 36 hours. We’ve since moved to -8. After initially dropping the total a point from the opener of 51, we’ve seen steady action on the over to get it back to the original number. Overs in primetime NFL games this year have been money so almost 90 percent of our wagers have been on that side." John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (5-2 SU 5-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Rivers (1,961 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs) has put up huge numbers, but the offense stalled against the Chiefs with a season-low 251 total yards. The Chargers also had a tough time stopping the run, giving up a season-high 154 yards on the ground, but that's not likely to be a concern against Denver. San Diego ranks third in the NFL against the pass and has not allowed more than 300 passing yards yet this season.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Even at age 38, Manning (1,848 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) boasts the top quarterback rating in the AFC, and the Broncos have put up 31 or more points in three straight games. Denver's receiving corps will test San Diego's strong pass defense, as four receivers have at least 17 receptions and at least one touchdown. The Broncos' defense has been somewhat susceptible to the pass but ranks third in the league against the run and hasn't allowed more than 62 rushing yards during the three-game winning streak.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October.
* Under is 4-0 in Broncos last four vs. AFC West.
COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, the Broncos have the slight edge at 50.34 percent.
Chargers vs. Broncos Betting Preview and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com
The Chargers go for their fifth straight cover at Denver when the AFC West rivals clash on Thursday night at Sports Authority Field (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS). San Diego (5-2 SU and ATS) handed the Broncos (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) their only home loss of 2013, manhandling Denver 27-20 as a 10-point dog in Week 15. The Chargers controlled the clock for nearly 39 minutes in that upset, then lost 24-17 on the same field in the playoffs as 8-point dogs.
The Broncos continue to look dominant in 2014 – they made San Fran look like an also-ran Sunday night – and are 3-to-1 faves to win the Super Bowl. San Diego is coming off a surprising home loss in which Kansas City’s Alex Smith dissected the Chargers’ defense. First place in the AFC West is at stake, with Denver holding a half-game lead over San Diego.
The Line: Broncos -7, Total: 51
Line movement: Denver opened as a 7-point favorite and was bet up to -7.5 at many books, although there's been a fair amount of dancing between those two numbers in early wagering. The total hovers between 50.5 and 51. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Chargers are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 visits to Denver. The Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with winning home records.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. The OVER is 30-12-1 in Denver’s last 43 home games.
Manning magic: Peyton Manning threw four more touchdown passes Sunday night, giving him an NFL-record 510 in his career. At 38, Manning is playing at the very highest level. He’s completing 68.7 percent of his throws, averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per attempt and has tossed 19 touchdowns against three interceptions. With the NFL tightly enforcing illegal contact and defensive holding, Manning is poised to earn his second Super Bowl ring.
McCoy matters: Chargers coach Mike McCoy worked for the Broncos from 2009-12, serving as offensive coordinator his last three years there. He knows how to slow down Manning but might not have the personnel to do it this time due to his banged-up secondary. The Chargers rank fifth in total defense (316.4), third in passing yards allowed (29.6) and third in points allowed (16.3) this season.
Rivers thriving again: McCoy has worked wonders with quarterback Philip Rivers, who's thrown 17 touchdowns against three interceptions while posting a 113.0 passer rating. Rivers is coming off his worst game since the opener and will try to bounce back against a Broncos defense that ranks fifth in passer rating allowed (80.6).
Injuries that matter: Broncos running back Montee Ball remains out with a groin injury, but Ronnie Hillman is playing better than Ball did and looks like a better fit.
The Chargers’ secondary could be in trouble if cornerback Brandon Flowers (concussion) and cornerback Jason Verrett (shoulder) miss the game as expected.
With running backs Ryan Mathews (knee) and Donald Brown (concussion) expected to sit out again, undrafted rookie running back Branden Oliver will carry the load again.
Visit here for all Week 8 NFL injuries.
Weather: Conditions will be perfect: temperatures in the 60s, almost no wind, and zero chance of rain. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
The Linemakers lean: Denver is playing above its rating, covering three straight spreads, while San Diego has dropped two in row ATS. We look for the Broncos to keep it rolling Thursday night in game they know is a big one -- the Chargers won't be sneaking up on anyone them this time around. Sure, the Chargers have won the cash in three straight trips to Denver, but we see value with the Broncos, especially at -7 or less.