NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 26th, 2017

MIAMI (4 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 10/26/2017, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami

NFL Week 8

Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4) — Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.

Armadillosports.com

Red-hot Dolphins face Ravens
By: StatFox.com

The Dolphins will be hoping to improve to a surprising 5-2 with a win over the Ravens on Thursday.

The Dolphins looked like one of the worst teams in football after losing 20-0 against the Saints in their third game of the season. Miami was 1-2 after that game and had recently lost 20-6 against the Jets as well. The Dolphins have, however, turned their season around in a big way. Miami has won three straight games heading into this one, and the team is 2-0-1 ATS in those three contests. One of those victories was on the road against the Falcons, so it’s not like they’re facing only lousy teams. The Ravens, meanwhile, have now lost four of their past five games after losing 24-16 as a five-point underdog against the Vikings last week. Baltimore badly needs to win this game on Thursday, so expect this team to play with some intensity. The last time the Ravens hosted the Dolphins was on Dec. 4, 2015, when Baltimore won 38-6 as a three-point home favorite. The Ravens are now 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS when hosting the Dolphins since 1992, and Baltimore has also covered in two straight against Miami coming into this one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Ravens are 15-4 ATS after failing to cover in four or five of their previous six games under head coach John Harbaugh. Harbaugh is, however, also a lousy 12-22 ATS in October games with Baltimore.

The Dolphins lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler to a rib injury last game, but luckily backup Matt Moore is every bit as good as him. Moore was the reason the Dolphins were able to pull off a ridiculous comeback victory over the Jets last week, as he threw for 188 yards with two touchdowns and only one pick after Cutler went down. Miami had no problems moving the ball with him out there and should be able to find some success against Baltimore on Thursday. It helps Moore that WR Jarvis Landry is playing at an extremely high level this season. Landry had seven catches for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week and now has three scores on the year. He has never had more than five in a season, so you can expect him to top that number this year. Look for him to potentially find the endzone in this game as well, as the Ravens do not have that great of a defense this year. Miami must, however, run the football a bit better than usual in this one. The Ravens have struggled to stop the run this year, so RB Jay Ajayi should be able to break out in this one. He has not yet rushed for a touchdown, but that could change shortly.

The Ravens need a victory on Thursday or the team runs the risk of falling far too behind in the playoff race. Baltimore does not want to be 3-5, as the team has a number of tough games coming up. That means that the Ravens will need to be a lot better on both sides of the football in this one. QB Joe Flacco is the guy that must really step his game up on Thursday, as the veteran has thrown for just 1,189 yards with five touchdowns and a pathetic eight picks. He is not taking care of the football this year and he has also struggled to manufacture any sort of momentum on offense. It doesn’t help Flacco that Baltimore really doesn’t have any consistency in the running game, but there is no reason that the 32-year-old should be playing this poorly. He has won a Super Bowl and has played at a very high level before, so it’s a little surprising to see him performing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. As for this defense, stopping the run would be a start. Baltimore has not yet done that this season, but that would really help against a mediocre Miami offense.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Dolphins at Ravens
Covers.com

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)

Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.

Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

LINE HISTORY: Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).

Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.

TNF - Dolphins at Ravens
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

It's been nearly an entire decade since the Dolphins covered the spread of a game against the Ravens, last doing so in a 22-16 overtime win back in '07. You've got to go back 20 years and a week for the last time the Dolphins picked up a win in Baltimore, way back in their first visit back in 1997.

Karim Abdul-Jabbar, the running back unrelated to the Hall of Fame center, scored three touchdowns to fuel the victory. That's a blast from the past. While history may not be on Miami's side as they visit Baltimore, the form the current Ravens have put on display of late could ease their burden.

In danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season, something they've never done under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are hoping to even their record at 4-4 with a win over the Dolphins. Although Baltimore didn't qualify for the postseason in its first four years after relocating from Cleveland, it has been part of the AFC playoff picture more than it hasn't since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000. Harbaugh qualified in each of his first five seasons, but will need a strong finish to avoid missing out for the fourth time over his last five.

From that standpoint, there's tremendous pressure to get off to a good start and pick up this win in a short week to move forward within striking distance of a playoff spot entering the season's second half. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gave his GM Ozzie Newsome, Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco a vote of confidence by stating his belief in their competence and his preference for patience, but since he felt the need to do that, there's definitely cause for concern that the foundation is crashing.

Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 at home on Thursday nights, and actually told his team's fans this week that "there are going to be good times ahead for Joe Flacco. Stick with him."

Flacco has yet to throw for even 250 yards this season, topping out at 235 in a 26-9 loss to Pittsburgh. He hasn't trusted the offensive line since it lost its most valuable member, Marshal Yanda, in the opening month. The former Super Bowl MVP has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns through the first seven games, so maybe facing the team he's lit up most over the past three seasons will help him snap out of a season-long funk. Flacco threw four touchdown passes in last December's 38-6 rout of the Dolphins, utilizing advantages the Ravens had against the linebackers and DBs to post a season-best 36 completions. Dennis Pitta, who was lost to a dislocated hip in training camp, scored two touchdowns among his nine receptions for 90 yards.

Injuries have continued to play a role in the demise of the Ravens offense, which comes off being held to just 16 points in Minnesota, which is misleading since they scored with no time left after driving down the field against a defense more interested in watching the seconds tick away. Had rookie Chris Moore not tapped his toe to get both feet in on the final play of regulation on Sunday, not only would the 'under' for that game have come in, but Flacco would carry a touchdown-less streak of 13 quarters into Thursday night's game. As it is, he's thrown two TD passes in his last 22 quarters.

The defense Miami will bring into town is much improved from the version Flacco dominated 10 months ago. Linebackers Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons were elsewhere last season, while Kiko Alonso continues to make plays. Up front, Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks to help put away the Jets last week as the Dolphins rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-28 despite losing starting QB Jay Cutler to broken ribs that will keep him out here. Backup Matt Moore, who threw for a pair of scores and 188 yards to help execute the comeback, will start for the first time since last season's AFC Wild Card playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins are in position to join the Steelers, Chiefs and Patriots at 5-2 with a victory here, which would be impressive since they're now on their third quarterback after losing Ryan Tannehill and now Cutler. This injury isn't likely to keep him out long, but since the offense was inconsistent with him at the helm, it's entirely possible that Moore can keep the job if he continues to excel.

Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC East: 18/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Despite the comeback win over the Jets and the possibility of joining the AFC's elite, record-wise, the Dolphins numbers remained the same as they were the previous week. The books clearly aren't big believers in Cutler or Moore. Since they're in the same division as New England, they're not going to get much love. Still, merely from the standpoint that they've gotten off to a successful start and that injuries can pop up at any time to derail seasons, it might be worthwhile to get in on some Dolphins futures if you think they're going to pick up a win here.

The Ravens are also potentially lucrative. Considering the coaching staff knows what it takes to be successful against the AFC's elite teams, you can be confident in the leadership if nothing else. Flacco has been shaky and injuries have compromised any and all depth, so if I had to choose between these two longshots to back long-term, Miami gets my vote.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week at 3.5 at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 37-37.5, but is now most widely available at 37.

Baltimore is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession just to flirt with a push, while backing the Dolphins outright will get you +140.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday afternoon.

"Currently, the action for TNF is fairly split. We took a little bit of sharp money on the Ravens early, but then received just about the sames sharp money on Miami at +3.5," Cooley said. "The public likes the Dolphins with a 60-40 split. Smart money on the under as well. Despite the win streak, I don’t know if you can call the Dolphins 'hot' due to the nature of those victories, and this feels like a game Baltimore has to have."

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond missing Cutler, the Dolphins have injury issues along the offensive line and at receiver. Left guard Anthony Steen has been ruled out, necessitating a reshuffling up front. Jesse Davis will start. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but should play, which is fortuntate since Miami would really have to get creative if he can't go. WR DeVante Parker has been absent for the better part of two games but is hoping to return from an ankle injury to push Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills for targets. DE Andre Branch and DT Jordan Phillips are also questionable.

The Ravens ruled out RB Terrance West and TE Maxx Williams and list WRs Michael Campanaro and Chris Matthews as doubtful. WR Breshad Perriman, who scored against the Dolphins last season, cleared concussion protocol and will play, but Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are each serious question marks. Guard Matt Skura and TE Ben Watson are questionable but expected to return to action. On the defensive end, LB Tim Williams is out, but Terrell Suggs and top corner Jimmy Smith are expected to go.

RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS last seven; UNDER 4-3)

12/4/16 Baltimore 38-6 vs. Miami (BALT -3.5, 41.5)
12/6/15 Miami 15-13 vs. Baltimore (MIA -3, 43.5)
12/7/14 Baltimore 28-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 45)
10/6/13 Baltimore 26-23 at Miami (MIA -2.5, 42.5)
11/7/10 Baltimore 26-10 vs.Miami (BALT -5, 41)
1/4/09 Baltimore 27-9 at Miami (BALT -3.5, 38)
10/19/08 Baltimore 27-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 35)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goal length and combined sacks.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Ravens -140, Dolphins +120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Ravens -155, Dolphins +135)
Team to score first: (Ravens -125, Dolphins +105)
Team to score last: (Ravens -115, Dolphins -105)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +140, Under -160)
Longest FG made: (47, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4.5 Over -110, Under -110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -210, No +175)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes +120, No -140)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +102, No -140)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -155, No +135)

RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Baltimore is 1-1 SU/ATS in this role, defeating Cleveland and losing outright in OT against Chicago. The Ravens were 5-2 as a home favorite last season, covering the number on four occasions, which included the 38-6 romp over the Dolphins that provided their largest margin of victory last season.

DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Miami is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS catching points on the road this season. The Dolphins survived the Chargers in L.A. in their season debut when Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning field goal and rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit in Atlanta to beat the Falcons as a 14-point 'dog. The 'Phins went 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in this role last season, including the Wild Card loss in Pittsburgh.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Ravens as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tennessee. The Dolphins will be back on a national stage, hosting the Raiders in a huge AFC clash on Sunday night football. Oakland is listed as a 1-point road favorite.

Thursday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

Odds: Baltimore (-3); Total 37

After three straight weeks of having some highly anticipated TNF games to begin the new week – New England/Tampa Week 5, Philadelphia/Carolina Week 6, and Kansas City/Oakland in Week 7 – it looks like Week 8 is back classified under one of those TNF games that could end up being extremely painful to watch.

Miami and Baltimore have been among the league's worst offenses all year long, and Baltimore is coming off a game where they didn't score a TD until the final seconds of garbage time. Will these two teams be able to put some points up on the board on a short week?

Baltimore and Miami both rank in the bottom five of the league in adjusted net yards per play and both average fewer then 18 points per game on average. However, both teams have put up 20 or more points in two of their last three games, with Miami's offense being the most impressive last week in their fourth quarter comeback against the New York Jets.

Miami's 17-point outburst in the final frame was led by backup QB Matt Moore as he came in for a injured Jay Cutler who will once again be in street clothes this week. Moore was a guy this Dolphins organization didn't fully believe could handle the load of being a 16-game starter this year – hence the decision to pull Cutler out of retirement – but he actually may be the one more suited to run this Dolphins offense given his time spent in the system. We saw that in relief last Sunday, and Dolphins fans are hoping to see more of the same on a short week on Thursday night.

Baltimore's offensive woes are more because the status quo really isn't working anymore, as QB Joe Flacco and his huge contract are becoming more and more of a burden to the organization. Flacco's 5 TD passes to his 8 INT's have really put this Ravens team behind the 8-ball at various times this year, and his 5.31 yards per attempt is good for last in the entire league of qualifying QB's.

If Baltimore has any ideas of seriously competing in the AFC North this year, Flacco's going to have to step up his play in a big way. Whether that's taking more shots downfield or reading defensive coverages better, Baltimore better find some answers in a hurry.

Things aren't likely to drastically change on a short week for the Ravens, but Miami's new-look attack with Matt Moore at the controls may force the Ravens to try. Moore's basically playing for his job at the moment, and should he be the guy that gets the Dolphins own offense out of the misery it's been all year, Cutler may end up being on the sideline even when he returns.

Last week's fourth quarter deficit did dictate Moore throw the ball more, but it was clear he had a good connection with his receivers and I expect that to continue this week. With Baltimore's defense being last against the run (145.3 yards allowed per game) a guy like RB Jay Ajayi could be in store for a huge day in this one and his success will open up things for Moore and Miami's aerial attack.

With this game having the common belief that it will be a boring, ugly TNF game with two bad offenses on a short week, I believe bucking that prevailing notion could prove to be how you cash a ticket here. This total of 37 is the lowest on the board for Week 8 and just like the previous two TNF games, I do believe we see this game sail 'over' the number. Both sides are aware of how putrid they've been on offense this year, and this national spotlight game is a chance for both to dispel those ideas to an extent.

Miami's first 'over' of the year came in last week's comeback win, but they are 9-4 O/U dating back to last year when coming off an outright victory, and 5-2 O/U after scoring 30+ points. Meanwhile, Baltimore is on a 4-1 O/U run after failing to cover the spread, and despite all their offensive woes, are still on a 4-1 O/U run this year entering Week 8. Turnovers, whether for or against, have been a big part of Baltimore games all year, and getting or giving up short fields is always something an 'over' bettor prefers.

So while the majority of bettors will see this matchup, look at the YTD stats for both offenses and conclude that these two teams will struggle to even reach 30 points on TNF, I'm taking the contrarian stance here and looking for this low total to actually be surpassed relatively easily. I've always liked to take the approach of playing 'overs' in games involving two bad offenses and 'unders' in games involving two high-powered offenses because their is inherent value built into those plays based on the lines and the common perception.

This game definitely falls into the former, and with Baltimore is 2-0 O/U in non-division AFC games already this year, and I believe they make it three in a row this week with both teams scoring in the 20's.

Best Bet: Over 37