NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 30

NFC South highlights TNF
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-4) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 48

Both the Saints and Panthers look to get back to the .500 mark when the two square off in Charlotte on Thursday night.

New Orleans hosted Green Bay Sunday night and came away with a huge 44-23 victory behind 311 yards and three touchdowns from QB Drew Brees. Carolina QB Cam Newton was wildly inefficient in Week 8, finishing with 171 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He was unable to produce a touchdown scoring drive for his team, losing 13-9 at home against the Seahawks.

The Panthers are 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past two seasons in this series, including 2-0 (SU and ATS) when hosting the Saints during that time. Since 1992, New Orleans is 10-3 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing more than 375 yards per game during the second half of the season. The Panthers, however, are 8-2 ATS versus teams that allow 24 or more points per game on the year over the past three seasons. They are also 9-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in that span.

RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out for New Orleans while teammate RB Khiry Robinson (arm) is questionable. Carolina's main injury concerns are on the defensive side of the ball with S Thomas DeCoud (hamstring), LB Chase Blackburn (knee) and CB Bene Benwikere (ankle) all questionable for Thursday night.

The Saints picked up a victory in a must-win home meeting with the Packers last week, and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Drew Brees (2,227 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT). Brees was 27-of-32 in the game with a passer rating of 138.4. He was not going to let the Saints miss the playoffs that easily. Another player who really stepped up in that win was RB Mark Ingram (331 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 24 times for 172 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay. He’ll now face a Carolina defense that is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). He should be in for yet another big game as long as he continues put his head down and run with power.

TE Jimmy Graham (39 rec, 435 yards, 4 TD) caught five passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in the win. He looked a lot better than he did in the loss to Detroit, where he was severely limited with a shoulder injury. WR Brandin Cooks (40 rec, 372 yards, 2 TD) caught six passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The rookie is inconsistent, but really adds another element to this team’s offense when he is on his game.

This defense has been good against the run this year, allowing just 101.1 YPG (10th in NFL). That could, however, just be because of their struggles against the pass. New Orleans is surrendering 289.3 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and will need to tighten up its coverage against Cam Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina looked horrible at home against the Seahawks last week and a lot of that blame will fall on the shoulders of QB Cam Newton (1,643 pass yards, 8 TD, 4 INT). The franchise quarterback was just 12-of-22 in that game with a passer rating of 61.0. He will have a golden opportunity to turn things around this week against a miserable New Orleans passing defense.

The only players who showed up in the loss to Seattle were RB Jonathan Stewart (217 rush yards, 1 TD) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (38 rec, 571 yards, 5 TD). Stewart rushed 16 times for 79 yards, and also caught three passes for 15 yards, while Benjamin hauled in four of his seven targets for a total of 94 yards. They should both have a lot more room to run when facing the Saints compared to the Seahawks.

The Panthers’ defense, however, showed up against Seattle in that game. They held the Seahawks to just 310 total yards and were able to cause two turnovers. This unit has allowed 243.3 passing yards per game (18th in NFL) and 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). They’ll be hoping that their performance against Seattle was more of a sign of things to come.

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NFL Week 9

Saints (3-4) @ Panthers (3-4-1) — Battle for first in NFC South between teams with sub-.500 records. Saints are 0-4 on road (were favored in three of four), with three losses by 3 or less points; they lost 26-24 (-6.5) at Cleveland in only other outdoor game so far this season. Carolina is 1-4-1 in last six games after its 2-0 start; they scored total of 26 points (2 TD’s on last 20 drives) in last two games, but are 2-2 at home, beating Lions/Bears. Panthers are 0-4 with even/negative turnover ratio, scoring 11.3 ppg in those four games. Saints lost last seven road games overall; they’re 0-7 in last seven games as road favorites. Panthers are 6-5 as home dog under Rivera. Five of last six Carolina games, three of last four Saint games went over total.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Dportspic.com

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers square off at Bank of America Stadium Thursday night with top spot in the NFC South up for grabs. Saints coming off an impressive 44-23 home victory vs. Packers are 3-4 SU/ATS on the campaign. The Panthers suffering a 13-9 setback at home vs Seahawks hit the field 3-4-1 SU on the year with a profitable 5-3 mark against the betting line. The trick for New Orleans, heading into this division showdown, is to find a way to win a game on the road. The Saints are 0-4 (1-3 ATS) away from the Bayou this season and have lost seven straight regular-season games away from New Orleans (1-6 ATS). Also working against New Orleans, a short turnaround. Playing on three days rest isn't idea for any team, it's even more difficult on a visiting squad as they've won only 23 of 61 games SU the past five years. Spread wise, the travelling troops have held their own with a 28-33 record against the number but are just 17-21 ATS when in an underdogs roll. As for Panthers, they have a few positive betting numbers on their side posting a smart 9-3-1 ATS stretch in home games, 5-1 ATS mark last six hosting divisional rival Saints.

Saints at Panthers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Only one division in the NFL has zero teams at or above the .500 mark. The two top teams in the NFC South hook up in Carolina on Thursday night in what looks to be a pivotal matchup for supremacy in this division as the season hurdles the midway point. New Orleans has started slow at 3-4, but is picking some momentum, while Carolina’s 2-0 start seems like a distant memory as the Panthers have stumbled to a 3-4-1 record through eight games.

Things seemed bright for the defending NFC South champion Panthers after early season victories over the Buccaneers and Lions. However, Carolina stubbed its toe against the AFC North, posting an 0-2-1 record, while needing a two-touchdown rally to stun the Bears at home in Week 5. The Panthers had an excellent opportunity to bust the .500 plateau with a win over the Seahawks at home last week, but Carolina lost, 13-9 as Russell Wilson burned the Panthers for a late touchdown pass for the second straight season.

Carolina covered as six-point home underdogs, but Ron Rivera’s team gained just 268 yards, while the Panthers have been outgained in the yardage category in seven consecutive games. Cam Newton has thrown an interception in four straight contests, while not busting the 300-yard mark in seven starts, as the former Heisman Trophy winner has rushed for just one touchdown this season.

The Saints slipped up in their first two games at Atlanta and Cleveland, losing those two contests by a combined five points. New Orleans has taken care of business at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome by going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, capped off with last Sunday’s 44-23 rout of the Packers as two-point favorites. Drew Brees put together a nearly impeccable performance for the Saints, completing 27-of-32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns (all in the second half), while Mark Ingram ran all over the Green Bay defense for 172 yards and a touchdown.

Since the start of the 2013 season, Sean Payton’s club owns a dreadful 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS record in the role of a road favorite, which includes an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. This is a crucial stretch for the Saints, who play the next three games at home against the 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh. With Tampa Bay and Atlanta pretty much cooked in the division race, New Orleans will likely continue to win at home, but need road wins since Carolina has a slight advantage by having a tie in the standings.

The Panthers haven’t been great in the underdog role since the beginning of 2012, covering just eight of 21 times, although they are 3-2 ATS this season when receiving points. Carolina has already lost more games this season at Bank of America Stadium (2) than it did last season (1), but Rivera’s squad has won six of the past seven home games against division opponents.

The home team won each of the two meetings last season as these clubs didn’t meet until December. The Saints dominated the Panthers at the Superdome, 31-13 as three-point favorites, as Brees torched the Carolina defense for four touchdown passes. Carolina avenged that defeat two weeks later in Charlotte by holding off New Orleans, 17-13 to barely cover as three-point chalk. The Panthers racked up only 222 yards of offense, but Newton found Domenik Hixon for the game-winning touchdown with 23 second remaining to clinch a playoff berth.

Both the Saints and Panthers have profited for ‘over’ bettors this season, as New Orleans has put together a 6-1 mark to the ‘over.’ The lone ‘under’ for the Saints came in a 20-9 victory in Week 3 against Minnesota with a 49 ½ total, but all four road games have sailed ‘over’ the total. The Panthers own a 5-3 ledger to the ‘over,’ although Carolina is just 2-2 to the ‘over’ at home this season.

Washington’s 20-17 overtime victory over Dallas on Monday night slowed up the ‘over’ run in primetime action, dropping the record to 20-5 to the ‘over.’ The short week has proved to hurt the defenses (or help the offenses) as the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the past six Thursday night contests, while home underdogs in primetime action are 3-3 SU/ATS.

New Orleans is listed as 2½-point favorites (-120), but several books have the Saints at -3 (even). The total is sitting at 49 as weather shouldn’t be an issue with cloudy skies and 56 degrees at game-time. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

Thursday Night Football: Saints at Panthers
By Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 49)

A vintage performance by Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints back in the playoff picture in the woeful NFC South Division. The Saints, however, are going to have to prove they can win on the road to secure a spot and their next test comes Thursday night when they visit the Carolina Panthers. Brees passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night's win over Green Bay, but New Orleans has dropped seven straight regular-season road games.

Carolina has just one win since beginning the season with back-to-back victories but still finds itself percentage points atop the division thanks to its tie against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The Panthers blew a late lead last week against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle, squandering several opportunities in the red zone in a 13-9 loss. Carolina has won four of the last five games in the series.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 2-point road faves, but are now -2.5. The total opened 48.5 and is up to 49.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - C Jonathan Goodwin (Questionable, leg), RB Khiry Robinson (Questionable, forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (Doubtful, ribs). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (Questionable, ankle), G Amini Silatolu (Questionable, calf).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-2) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-50s with clear skies.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle for the top spot in watered down NFC South. Despite a disappointing start, the Saints vault to the top of the division with a win tonight. To do so, they’ll need to overcome a sloppy 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS mark away from the Superdome since 2012. On the flip side, Carolina is going downhill fast, having been outgained in each of its last seven games. A healthy Drew Brees gets the nod over a wobbly Cam Newton." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Carolina +1.5 and have been forced to adjust upward with more than 75 percent of the bets on New Orleans. I expect the public will be piling on the Saints so this will probably get back to the key number by kickoff. I actually like the Panthers here, Cam Newton often shows up when the world is watching. I don't foresee the total dropping any lower considering it's a primetime matchup." John Lester, BookMaker.eu.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had his best game as a professional last week, rushing for one score and catching a touchdown pass in New Orleans' 44-23 victory. Cooks' performance helped take some of the pressure off tight end Jimmy Graham who is still slowed by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable. New Orleans is ranked second in the NFL in total offense and fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Running back DeAngelo Williams declared himself "ready to roll" for Thursday's game, the first time in four games since he injured an ankle. Williams rushed for 210 yards against the Saints in 2012 and will likely share duties with Jonathan Stewart in the backfield for the Panthers, who rank 27th in rushing offense. Defense has been a problem, however, as Carolina has surrendered at least 37 points four times this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last four games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 64 percent of wagers are supporting the visiting Saints.