NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-140 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-82 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
NEW ENGLAND @ TAMPA BAY
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing New England
NFL Week 5
Patriots (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1) — New England defense has already allowed 33+ points in three games this year; they’re 0-2 when scoring less than 36 points. Patriot defense has given up 3.04 pts/drive on 28 opponent drives that started 75+ yards from goal line; next worst in NFL are Saints, at 2.80. Bucs don’t have a takeaway in last two games; they’re only 4-17 on 3rd down in last two games. Tampa ran ball for 117-111 yards in its two wins, only 26 yards on 9 carries in their 26-9 loss in Minnesota. Patriots are 6-2 vs Tampa Bay, winning last three meetings by combined score of 86-10. This is Patriots’ first visit to Tampa Bay since 1997. NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-4, 1-3 when favored.
Armadillosports.com
TNF - Patriots at Bucs
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Before Tom Brady came along, the Bucs owned a two-game winning streak over the Patriots, who hold a 6-2 record in this series dating back to the first meeting back in 1976. Tampa Bay last won in 2000, riding Shaun King at QB and Warrick Dunn, Mike Alstott and Keyshawn Johnson at the skill positions. Tony Dungy ruined Bill Belichick's Patriots debut thanks to Warrick Sapp-led defense sacking Drew Bledsoe six times.
Time flies.
Spoiler alert -- Belichick got over it -- but he's in danger of falling below .500 this deep into the season for the first time since 2002, which is the last time New England failed to reach double-figures in wins.
The Patriots rank last in the NFL in touchdowns allowed per drive through their first four games and only the Colts have allowed more points, surrendering 136. The Titans gave up 59 points last week and have still allowed fewer than the 128 points (32.0 ppg) the defending champs have given up. Most people feel the preseason doesn't matter, but I can tell you having watched everyone of those games that the puzzled, embarrassed look that agitated defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has sported throughout the season was visible way back then.
Communication issues have been rampant and a lack of pressure from the defensive front has been obvious. If Tampa Bay scores 26 points, which is slightly above their projected team total, the Pats will set a new low for most points surrendered in a five-game stretch under Belichick. Although LB Dont'a Hightower's absence due to a sprained MCL has played a significant role, he's back in the mix and looking to shake off the rust as he participates in his second game in five days. Right tackle Marcus Cannon will face the same obstacle, while Rob Gronkowski continues to play through a thigh issue. If the Patriots are going to avoid slipping to 2-3, they'll have to be resilient since this doesn't figure to be as easy a task as their last few wins over Tampa Bay have been.
Chris Simms, Josh Johnson and Josh Freeman are the quarterbacks who have lined up under center as Brady's Bucs counterpart, and it's safe to say that Jameis Winston is a massive upgrade at the position. He threw three interceptions in Tampa's only loss in Minnesota but has avoided being picked at home while throwing for four scores in the team's two wins.
It must be pointed out that the teams Winston has defeated thus far are a combined 1-7, but he's talked all week about being inspired by squaring off against Brady for the first time and comes off an impressive game spreading the ball around against the Giants.
Tampa Bay held off New York 25-23 amid rainy conditions on Sunday, surviving the absence of key defenders and a rough day from kicker Nick Folk, who missed three field goals before connecting on his last one to secure the victory after Winston delivered on a last-gasp drive to get the Bucs within range.
The Bucs rank last in the NFL in third-down defense, allowing a 50 percent conversion rate that has to have Brady salivating. He's got the offense averaging 32 points over the last three games since the team's Thursday night loss to Kansas City to open the season, and has to be looking forward to going up against a team that has registered only a single sack through the first four games. This will be Brady's first time playing in Tampa Bay in his pro career, as two of the previous meetings came in Foxboro and the '09 game was played in London.
New England Patriots
Season win total: 12.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC East:1/25 to 1/6
Odds to win AFC: 2/1 to 5/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 500/1 to 100/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win NFC South: 11/2 to 7/2
Odds to win NFC: 20/1 to 15/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 30/1
LINE MOVEMENT
The Patriots were installed as a 6-to-1 Super Bowl favorite by Westgate way back in January and opened the regular-season as a league-best 11-to-4 chalk, but at the moment, they no longer have the best odds. After falling to .500, they moved from 4-to-1 to 5-to-1, which is still second-best alongside Green Bay behind Pittsburgh (9-to-2). New England is 5-to-2 to win the AFC a week after coming in at 2-to-1, which is where the Steelers now find themselves as the current favorite.
The Patriots went from an astronomical 1-to-25 to a still-high 1-to-6 to win the AFC East despite currently being behind Buffalo (now 9-to-2).
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"With New England and the New York Jets carrying identical 2-2 records through four weeks of the season, odds to win divisions across the league have become volatile, particularly in the AFC East," Bookmaker.eu's Scott Cooley said of his site's numbers. "Buffalo has seen its odds dip from +1610 prior to Week 1 to +410 currently. The Jets are still longshots to win the East, but their odds have dropped from +12000 to +1750. The Pats were -1800 to win the division at the outset of 2017, but are now -750."
Both the Bucs and Falcons made some inroads after their victories and the Falcons' loss, each moving from 11-to-2 to 7-to-2 to win the NFC South while Atlanta went from 4-to-11 to 4-to-5.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week there but quickly moving to 5.5. The number moved to 6 and appears headed back in the other direction. The total opened at 54, climbed as high as 56 and is no available at 55-55.5.
New England is mostly available at -250 on the money line, while Tampa Bay will get you +210.
ODDSMAKER'S TAKE
Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu took the temperature on this one as of Wednesday morning.
"We weren’t quite sure where the action would take this one, but the early smart money, and all of the public money, has been on the Pats," said Cooley. "We do anticipate to see some wiseguys take the points, probably when limits are raised tomorrow. The squares don’t think New England can lose two in a row so they’ll continue to pile on."
INJURY CONCERNS
While the Patriots are getting healthier, the Bucs have major issues that won't have clear answers until close to kickoff. While LB Kwon Alexander has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury, Lavonte David is doubtful due to a high ankle sprain. There's more optimism he'll be able to return than originally anticipated, but it would be an upset if he suits up. Safeties Keith Tandy and T.J. Ward are also considered doubtful with hip injuries. New England has only ruled out CB Eric Rowe (groin) and versatile back Rex Burkhead (ribs), while Gronkowski is expected to play despite his surprise inclusion on the injury report.
RB Doug Martin returns from his three-game suspension to give the Bucs another option in the backfield alongside Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims. Though his role has yet to be determined, it's likely Dirk Koetter plans to utilize him.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)
9/22/13 New England 23-3 vs. Tampa Bay (NE -7.5, 44.5)
10/25/09 New England 35-7 vs.Tampa Bay (NE -15.5, 44.5)
12/17/05 New England 28-0 vs. Tampa Bay (NE -4.5, 36)
9/3/00 Tampa Bay 21-16 at New England (TB -3, 36)
11/16/97 Tampa Bay 27-7 vs. New England (TB +2, 41)
PROPS
Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the UNDER on sacks and don't think we'll see a touchdown of 45 yards or more.
Team to reach 10 points first: (Patriots -170, Bucs +150)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Patriots -210, Bucs +175)
Team to score first: (Patriots -150, Bucs +130)
Team to score last: (Patriots -130, Bucs +110)
First score: (Touchdown -190, FG/Safety +165)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +105, Under -125)
Longest FG made: (46, Over -125/Under +105)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4 Over +105, Under -125)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -300, No +250)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a TD of 43 yards or more?: (Yes -135, No +110)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes -135, No +110)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1200, No -2000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -220, No +180)
PATRIOTS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
New England hits the road for the second time this season and handled New Orleans in this role (-6) in Week 2. It went 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS last season, failing to cover only against the Jets, and owns an eight-game win streak as a road favorite, last faltering in the 2015 season finale at Miami.
BUCS AS A HOME UNDERDOG
Tampa Bay has been favored in both of its home games but failed to cover last week as a 2.5-point chalk. The Bucs were 2-2 SU when getting points at the new Sombrero in '16, carrying a two-game win streak into this one (Bears, Seahawks) after falling to the Falcons and Broncos.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the Patriots as a 9.5-point favorite at the Jets in their first divisional game of the season. The Bucs will head West for a matchup with Arizona and are listed as a 2.5-point underdog.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Patriots at Buccaneers
Covers.com
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 55.5)
Tom Brady is finally up against a defense that he might not be able to overcome -- his own. Despite a sensational start to the season by two-time league MVP Brady, the New England Patriots have allowed three of their first four opponents to score at least 30 points as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.
The reigning Super Bowl champions have already lost twice at home following Sunday's 33-30 setback to the Carolina Panthers -- a division rival of Tampa Bay. "We haven't been really in control too often," said Brady, who rallied his team from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit in Sunday's last-second loss. "We are all really focused on trying to do a much better job than what we've done." The Buccaneers, who had their Week 1 matchup postponed due to Hurricane Irma, have sandwiched a pair of home wins around a 17-point loss at Minnesota. Quarterback Jameis Winston is coming off his best game of the season and gets back top running back Doug Martin, who returns after a suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-7) - Bucs (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -3.5
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as five-point road favorites and that point spread has yet to move. The total hit the betting boards at 53.5 and that number has jumped two full points up to 55.5. View the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Patriots - TE Rob Gronkowski (Questionable, Thigh), OL M. Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), CB S. Gilmore (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Hightower (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), RB R. Burkhead (Questionable, Ribs), DB E. Rowe (Questionable, Groin), DB B. King (Questionable, Hamstring), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Out, Knee), WR M. Mitchell (Out, Knee), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).
Buccaneers - LB K. Alexander (Questionable, Hamstring), S T. Ward (Questionable, Hip), S K. Tandy (Questionable, Hip), LB L. David (Out, Knee), QB R. Griffin (Out, Shoulder), DL D. Lambert (I-R, Wrist), DT S. Tu'ikolovatu (I-R, Knee), DE J. Trattou (I-R, Undisclosed).
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U): Brady turned in a pedestrian effort in the season opener but he has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games while completing at least 71 percent of his passes in each. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 18 receptions and two touchdowns while averaging 95 yards receiving over the past three, but wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been inconsistent in his first season with the team. The ground game also has been spotty, although running back James White has a team-high 22 receptions. The defense has been a sieve, allowing a staggering 456.8 yards per game -- by far the league worst -- and ranking 31st with 32.0 points per game.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): It's unclear how much of a role Martin, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, will play in his season debut, although Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 83 yards on 16 carries. Winston, the top overall pick in 2015, bounced back from a three-interception performance at Minnesota by throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns to rally Tampa Bay to a 25-23 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. He connected with each of his tight ends -- Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard -- for TD passes last week but Mike Evans is his favorite target with 19 catches for 227 yards and two scores. Injured linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are both expected to sit out their second straight game.
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 5.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
* Over is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers last 7 Thursday games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Patriots at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is picking up 62 percent of the totals action.
Bucs host struggling Patriots
By: StatFox.com
The Patriots will be trying to get back on track with a win over the Buccaneers in Tampa on Thursday.
New England is coming off of a 33-30 loss as a nine-point home favorite against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. The Patriots seemed like they had all the right pieces to repeat as Super Bowl champs this year, but they are having some serious issues on defense right now. The Patriots are last in the league in total defense heading into this game, and the 32.0 PPG they are allowing is only better than the lowly Colts (34.0 PPG). If the Patriots can’t figure it out soon then they are almost definitely going to be knocked out before even reaching the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are coming off of a big victory over the Giants last week. Tampa Bay won that game 25-23 on a last second field goal and should be feeling confident heading into this one. It’s worth noting that New England is an impressive 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past two seasons, and that’s exactly what they team will be playing on here. The Patriots are also 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored over the past three seasons. One bit of good news for Tampa is the fact that RB Doug Martin (Suspension) will be back in this one.
The Patriots are going to really need to figure things out on the defensive end in this one, and a lot that falls on DBs Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gillmore. The two of them were supposed to form one of the league’s best pass-defending duos, but they have actually been one of the league’s worst. New England’s pass defense made Alex Smith look like an elite quarterback and then helped a struggling Cam Newton get back on track last week. If the Patriots can’t figure this out soon then they are going to be in some serious trouble. On offense, QB Tom Brady (1,399 yards, 10 TD, 0 INT) is still playing at an extremely high level. Brady was ridiculous in leading his team back in each of the past two weeks, as he was able to help New England defeat Houston two weeks ago and then helped the team tie it up before losing to Carolina last week. He should be able to light up this Buccaneers defense on Thursday. When Brady goes to the air, the two guys he’ll be looking for most are TE Rob Gronkowski (20 rec, 318 yards, 2 TD) and WR Brandin Cooks (13 rec, 294 yards, 2 TD). Gronkowski has been his usual dominant self this season, and Cooks has gotten more comfortable in this offense by the week. He should be able to keep getting better and better moving forward. And when the Pats decide to run the ball, they’ll utilize their entire stable of backs. RB Mike Gillislee (194 yards, 4 TD), however, is the one worth mentioning here. Gillislee has been great between the tackles and will be able to punch it into the end zone if New England gets close.
The Buccaneers are coming off of a solid victory over the Giants, but they now face the defending champions on Thursday. This game could be a serious statement for Tampa, but the team will need to play a very good game here. The player that will truly be under the microscope is QB Jameis Winston (864 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT). Winston must take good care of the football in this game or the Bucs are not going to win this one. Winston did, however, do well against the Giants last week, as he threw for 332 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. If he can have another game like that on Thursday then you could probably assume that Tampa had a good chance to win. Winston just needs to make sure that he does everything he can to toss the ball in WR Mike Evans’ (19 rec, 227 yards, 2 TD) direction. Evans had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown against a good Giants secondary last week. He’ll be chopping at the bit to get his shot at this weak Pats secondary here. Tampa Bay will also do what it can to mix RB Doug Martin in. Martin should be fresh after having a few weeks off, and that actually might help him considering he has been injury prone in his career. As for the defense, the Bucs will need to get some pressure on Brady in this game. If he is able to just sit in the pocket then he will pick them apart.