NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 6th, 2016 6 from various handicappers and websites.
ARIZONA (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/6/2016, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona at San Francisco
Arizona: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Francisco: 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog
NFL Week 5
Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3) — QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8 ) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Arizona Cardinals (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Arizona (-4); Total set at 42.5
Week 5 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a NFC West showdown between a pair of one-win teams. Many bettors can't be too surprised to see the San Francisco 49ers at 1-3 SU entering this game, but Arizona's 1-3 SU start has left many shocked as the Cardinals were a popular pick to go all the way this year.
The 1-3 SU start doesn't do Arizona any favors in that regard, and with QB Carson Palmer potentially on the shelf for this one with a concussion, can the Cardinals begin to climb out of this early season hole they've dug?
Arizona's early season struggles this year have been in large part because of the ineptitude of their offense. The Cardinals have been able to move the ball well as they rank 7th in total yards this year, but all those yards haven't turned into many points aside from their Week 2 blowout win over Tampa.
Whether it was timely missed field goals, or costly turnovers at the wrong time (10 turnovers this year for Arizona), this team that made it to the NFC Championship game a year ago has looked much worse just a few months later. That is surprising given nearly all 22 of Arizona's starters from a year ago returned, but home losses to a Tom Brady-less Patriots team and the LA Rams have book-ended a disastrous first four weeks for the Cardinals.
San Francisco was expected to be one of the NFL's bottom feeders this year and have lost three straight (SU and ATS) entering this Thursday night game. They do however, continue to be a much better home team than they are away from home and home teams on TNF already have a bit of an advantage because they don't have to travel on a short week.
But the strength of the 49ers is their defense and they took a big hit this past week with LB Navarro Bowman lost for the year. His absence could open things up more for opponents who have already put 26.8 points per game up on the 49ers. With Arizona's offense looking to get back into the groove with whomever they start at QB, San Francisco's defense could be in tough this week without their leader Bowman.
Until word comes out on Carson Palmer's status for this game, it's tough to consider either side bet here. Arizona is going to get plenty of support from the majority of bettors regardless of who they throw out there because they are perceived to be the much better team.
In fact, many will argue that Arizona's early season struggles actually greats a bit of line value on them at this lower number because of how different these two teams were projected to finish the 2016 campaign. But I wouldn't rush to the window to take the Cardinals just yet as these struggles they appear to be having may actually something that could persist throughout the year, making them not nearly as good as everyone believed them to be.
I'm also not looking to bet on the 49ers here either as they aren't exactly one of the best teams in the league on either side of the ball. On paper they don't have the overall depth of talent that the Cardinals have and even at home on a short week, this line seems a little too low to grab the points with a bad group like San Francisco.
Instead, I'm looking at the total here and seeing the consensus numbers at VegasInsider.com showing over 80% of the early money on the low side of this total and wondering why.
NFC West games of years past used to be defensive slugfests but that's not the case anymore. Obviously, Palmer's status has something to do with that early support on the 'under' too, but this total opened up at 42 and has moved up a half-point even with all that early action the other way.
San Francisco is 6-0 O/U after giving up 350+ yards like they did to Dallas last week, and the Cardinals are on an 8-3 O/U run in their last 11 away from home. The Bowman injury for San Fran really limits some of the calls that defense can make, and with both teams prone to turning the ball over, we could see a few short fields for both sides.
I expect to see both teams put up multiple TD's in this one and if we can get three from each side we've got our winner siding with that early line move on this total.
Best Bet: Over 42.5 points
TNF - Cardinals at 49ers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Arizona (-3.5, 42) at San Francisco
News that Carson Palmer didn’t make the trip to Santa Clara hasn't affected this number at all, which tells you that the public perception that the Cardinals must win this game prevails over anything else. Despite an unstable situation at quarterback and injuries in the secondary, books are banking on the public riding the road favorite and haven't moved off of 3.5.
Chris Johnson was placed on IR earlier in the week, but the ground game is in good hands with the versatile David Johnson likely to be featured heavily to take pressure off Drew Stanton. He's quickly emerged as one of the NFL's top receiving threats out of the backfield and is an explosive, elusive playmaker whose success in this game should determine whether Arizona is successful in getting back to .500.
The 49ers will be playing their first game without top LB NaVorro Bowman, who ruptured his left Achilles tendon in the third quarter of the 24-17 loss to Dallas and is done for the season.
The Cardinals have won three of four in this series, winning last year’s meetings by a combined score of 66-20.
Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC West: 7/5 to 7/2
Odds to win NFC: 5/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1 to 16/1
San Francisco 49ers
Season win total: 5.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win NFC West: 30/1 to 100/1
Odds to win NFC: 30/1 to 1000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 2000/1
LINE MOVEMENT
While both teams are 1-3 and playing for the right to stay out of the NFC West basement, the latest update put out by the WestgateLV SuperBook in adjusting its conference and Super Bowl futures tells you just how differently these teams are regarded. The Cardinals simply haven't lost much steam despite their unexpected poor start because they should rebound here and start getting their act together. Ideally. The Niners just lost their top defensive player and have failed to cover in three in a row, so apparently the books don't see a Blaine Gabbert-led resurgence.
DREW BELIEVER
Stanton will make his first start since Dec. 2014. Arizona is 12-5 in games in which he’s appeared in, but he looked dreadful with a chance to impact Sunday’s 17-13 loss to the Rams, throwing two interceptions while finishing 4-for-11. In his defense, L.A. knew he was passing most downs, came after him relentlessly and had guys in their secondary make plays, but Stanton’s performance certainly didn’t help anyone associated with the Cards at ease coming into this one. The fact this will be his ninth start with the Cards and 12th as an NFL quarterback is reassuring, if only because backup Zac Dysert has never thrown a regular-season pass.
NO NAVORRO, NO PROBLEM?
Bowman led the NFL with 154 tackles in 2016 and will be difficult to replace, although Aaron Lynch returning from a four-game suspension cushions the blow. Although there's no replacing Bowman's presence, the Niners due have a capable backup in Nick Bellore, who has made an impact on special teams. In the short-term, it might have more impact on San Francisco that rookie DE DeForest Buckner (foot) is out, since he's become an impact player immediately. NT Glenn Dorsey is questionable with a knee injury, but should play. The same goes for DE Aric Armstead (shoulder). Key safety Jimmie Ward won’t play, so a defense that has been the team’s strength has major concerns.
RECENT MEETINGS (Arizona 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
11/29/15 Arizona 19-13 at San Francisco (AZ -7.5, 45)
9/27/15 Arizona 47-7 vs. San Francisco (AZ -7, 45.5)
12/28/14 San Francisco 20-17 vs. Arizona (SF -6, 38)
9/21/14 Arizona 23-14 vs. San Francisco (SF -3, 41)
12/29/13 San Francisco 23-20 at Arizona (AZ -3, 41)
PROPS
Of the props available below at Sportsbook.ag, I'm most partial to going over on Danny Amendola receptions and Lamar Miller rushing yards. Fading Watt tackles on the premise that the Patriots will look to run plays away from him is a solid move too.
Blaine Gabbert pass attempts 40: (+300 over)
Gabbert interceptions 1.5: (+200 over)
Gabbert passing yards 250: (+175 over)
Carlos Hyde rushing yards 100: (+300 over)
Hyde rushing attempts 22: (+225 over)
David Johnson rushing yards 125: (+275 over)
David Johnson rushing attempts 23: (+225 over)
Drew Stanton passing yards 300: (+275 over)
Larry Fitzgerald receiving yards 100: (+175 over)
Fitzgerald receptions 8 or more: (+130)
First-half points: Cardinals 12.5, 49ers 9.5 (-115 o/u)
Total points: Cardinals 23, 49ers 19 (-120/-115 over, -110/-115 under)
Longest TD 40.5 yds: (-115 o/u)
CARDINALS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
Arizona is 0-1 in this situation after losing at Buffalo 11 days ago, faltering 33-18 as a 4.5-point chalk. They were 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this role last season, losing only at Pittsburgh.
49ERS AS A HOME DOG
After opening the season with an upset of L.A at home, the Niners lost in this role against Dallas last week. San Francisco was 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) as a home dog in '15, pulling off upsets against the Vikings, Ravens, Packers and Rams.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The WestgateLV Superbook sent out its advance lines for next week on Wednesday and has the 49ers as a 7-point road underdog as they fly cross-country to Buffalo. The Cardinals host the Jets on Monday night and are listed as a 6.5-point favorite with the expectation that Palmer will clear concussion protocol by then.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Cardinals at 49ers
By Covers.com
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 42)
The Arizona Cardinals have been plagued by turnovers of late and the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick temporarily are faced with turning over the keys to backup quarterback Drew Stanton on Thursday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Veteran Carson Palmer did not travel with the team to California due to a concussion, leaving Stanton to be left looking to conjure the magic that saw him pull a 5-3 mark out of his hat during a stint in 2014.
Stanton struggled mightily in taking over for the concussed Palmer on Sunday, completing just 4-of-11 passes in a 17-13 setback to Los Angeles and his two interceptions upped Arizona's turnover total to nine during its two-game skid. "I'll say this, I never envisioned this type of start," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. "I don't know that anybody -- fans or anybody in the organization -- would have envisioned this." The 49ers had no such issue with the Rams with a 28-0 season-opening shellacking, but the defense of Chip Kelly's club summarily has been shredded to the tune of 458.3 yards and 35.7 points per contest during its three-game losing streak. To add injury to insult, four-time NFL All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman sustained a torn left Achilles in Sunday's 24-17 setback to Dallas and will miss the rest of the season.
LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this game as 2.5-point road faves and were bet as high as -4, but then the news came out Palmer would miss the game, the line dropped back to Cardinals -3.5. The total has also dropped with Stanton taking the snaps for Palmer, going from 43.5 to 43, to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-1) - 49ers (+6) + home field (-3) = 49ers +4
INJURY REPORT:
Cardinals - QB C. Palmer (Out Thursday, concussion), T D. Humphries (probable Thursday, ankle), TE D. Fells (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (questionable Thursday, toe), CB J. Bethel (questionable Thursday, foot), DT J. Mauro (questionable, chest), DT F. Rucker (questionable Thursday, knee), DT R. Nkemdiche (questionable Thursday, ankle).
49ers - TE V. McDonald (probable Thursday, hip), DL A. Armstead (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB M. Cromartie (probable Thursday, ankle), G Z. Beadles (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB C. Davis (questionable Thursday, quadricep), WR J. Kerley (questionable Thursday, ankle), DL G. dorsey (questionable Thursday, knee), DB J. Ward (questionable Thursday, quadricep), Dl D. Buckner (doubtful Thursday, foot). LB N. Bowman (out for season, Achilles).
WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up to be a beautiful night for football in Santa Clara. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There is also going to be a six to 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has dropped back-to-back games on only two occasions in his NFL career with Arizona and as a result finds his team languishing in a tie for last place in he NFC West division along with the 49ers. The key to this contest is the concussion protocol in which QB Carson Palmer is under. With him they don’t figure to drop three straight games. Without him they’ve got a headache - pun intended. The dataabse tells us Frisco is 1-5 ATS on Thursdays, but 'Zona is 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Initial money came in on Arizona, driving the spread up to -4.5, but that's starting to look more and more like a ploy play. We're back down to -3, and my guess is that this could end up closing lower than that. Currently, the money favors Arizona 60-40 while the bets are 75-25 on the road squad." - Odds consultant Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U): David Johnson (64 carries, 300 yards, three TDs) leads the NFL with 510 yards from scrimmage and has recorded 100 or more total yards in all four contests this season and eight of his last nine games. Johnson amassed 124 from scrimmage (83 rushing, 41 receiving) versus the Rams, but the workload was decidedly different in last year's season series with San Francisco (15 carries, 46 yards). The 24-year-old will be spelled by Andre Ellington, as veteran Chris Johnson (groin) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Tyvon Branch was also shuffled to IR, with fellow safety Tyrann Mathieu temporarily being moved into the slot while D.J. Swearinger plays in nickel packages.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): San Francisco collected eight takeaways in its first three games to provide a helping hand for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, which scored a league-best 45 points off the turnovers after mustering an NFL-worst 25 for the entire 2015 season. The 49ers failed to force a turnover versus the Cowboys on Sunday and Blaine Gabbert's fourth interception of the season ended his team's bid for an upset. Carlos Hyde (73 carries, 299 yards, NFC-best five TDs) is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over his last two games, but was limited to just 51 yards in a 47-7 loss at Arizona on Sept. 27.
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last four versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last nine Thursday games.
CONSENSUS: So far the public is still backing the Cardinals, even without Carson Palmer, with 62 percent of wagers laying the points with the road faves. Meanwhile the total is seeing a much more even split, with 52 percent of wagers on the Over.