NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 9

NFL Week 6

Colts (3-2) @ Texans (3-2) — Indy is 20-4 in series, winning last three by 12-3-22 points, but they’ve lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10+ points; home side won seven of last eight series games. Colts won last three games after 0-2 start; they’re 5-1-1 as road favorites under Pagano, 9-6-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Texans are 2-0 at home, allowing three TDs on 24 drives; they’re 4-6 as home dogs since ’09, 3-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less. Colts allowed 30+ points in both losses, 17 or less in all three wins; Houston scored exactly 17 points in three of five games. Three of last four Indy games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

So far this season, Thursday night favorites have been the right choice. WK1 Seahawks (-4.5) thumped Packers 36-16, WK2 Ravens (-2.5) downed Steelers 26-6, WK3 Falcons (-6.5) destroyed Bucs 56-14, WK4 Washington (-3) failed in it's attempt falling 45-14 to visiting Giants and last week Packers (-8.5) humiliated Vikings 42-10. This Thursday, Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) try to make it 5-1 SU/ATS for Thursday night favorites as they visit Houston Texans. Playing on three days rest can be extremely difficult, especially for a visiting squad. Over the past 5 seasons the road team has won just 22 of 54 regular season games played on Thursday while posting a 26-28 ATS mark against the betting line. Still, you bet against Colts at some risk. Andrew Luck sporting a league leading 1617 passing yards, 14 TD's should easily shred Texans' 21st ranked pass defense giving up 253.2 PYG. Colts on a profitable 12-1 ATS streak against the division, a sparkling 7-1 record against the betting line in Thursday road games, Texans on a 0-4 Thursday ATS skid, 1-6 ATS slide vs the division the numbers clearly illustrate Colts are the right choice.

Colts at Texans
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The AFC South has turned into a two-horse race, even though the season is in early October. Jacksonville and Tennessee have combined to post a 1-9 mark and actually meet on Sunday in Nashville. The Colts and Texans kick off the Week 6 slate in Houston as each squad owns a 3-2 record, trying to get an early leg up inside this division as the AFC South may get just one team in the postseason.

Indianapolis started the season with a quick thud, losing to Denver and Philadelphia to begin 0-2. Granted, those two squads have put together a 7-2 record, while the Eagles needed to rally late to stun the Colts in Week 2 by a 30-27 count. Since that defeat, the Colts have stormed back with three consecutive victories to climb above the .500 mark.

Following blowouts of the two also-rans in their division, the Jaguars and Titans by a combined score of 85-34, Indianapolis met its match with Baltimore last week. The Colts passed the test against the champion of two seasons ago, beating the Ravens, 20-13 to cash as 2½-point favorites. Indianapolis led Baltimore, 6-3 at halftime, but Andrew Luck led a pair of touchdown drives to put the Colts in control before stopping the Ravens on their final possession. The Colts forced three turnovers, while limiting the Ravens to 287 yards, including making a key goal-line stand in the first half.

The Texans won their first two games of the 2014 campaign, taking care of the Redskins and Raiders as short favorites. After a blowout loss to the Giants on the road, Houston rebounded by rallying past Buffalo in Week 4. However, the Texans couldn’t get over the hump against their cross-state rival in a 20-17 setback to the Cowboys last Sunday. Houston managed a cover as five-point road underdogs, as Arian Foster tied things up late in regulation with his second rushing touchdown of the day. The passing game never got going for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw for 154 yards and one interception, while throwing six picks in the past three weeks.

Last year was an unfair representation of the Texans, who finished with 14 consecutive losses after a 2-0 start, one season following an AFC South title in 2012. Among all those defeats, Houston was swept by Indianapolis, who captured its eighth division title in 11 seasons and the first with Luck as their starting quarterback. In the first meeting last November at NRG Stadium, the Texans built a 14-0 lead behind a pair of long touchdown passes from former University of Houston standout Case Keenum to Andre Johnson. The Colts erased a 24-6 third quarter deficit thanks to three touchdown connections between Luck and T.Y. Hilton to stun the Texans, 27-24 as one-point favorites.

The task was easier for the Colts one month later at home, dismantling the beat-down Texans, 25-3 to easily cash as six-point favorites. Houston racked up just 239 yards of offense, while falling to 0-12 lifetime at Indianapolis. That number doesn’t mean much on Thursday with the game being played in Texas, as the Colts have dropped three of the past four visits to NRG Stadium.

Both the Texans and Colts have been terrific teams to back this season at 4-1 ATS each. What a major difference from last season, when Houston covered just four times in 16 tries, including a 1-7 ATS mark at home. Indianapolis is riding a 9-0 SU/ATS streak against AFC South opponents, which began against Houston in the final game of the 2012 regular season. An even more impressive number for Chuck Pagano’s team is the 6-0 SU/ATS record as a road favorite since the beginning of 2012, which includes the Week 3 rout of Jacksonville.

The ‘over’ is hitting at a tremendous rate in primetime games this season, cashing at a 13-3 clip. In four of five Thursday night contests, the winning team has scored at least 36 points, while each of the past three Thursday games have been decided by an average of 35 points. Underdogs have put together a 10-6 ATS record in night action, while compiling an incredible 8-1 ATS mark as a 3½-point ‘dog or less. Road favorites in primetime matchups have gone 1-3 SU/ATS with the Seahawks being the lone ‘chalk’ to cash, coming this past Monday at Washington.

The Colts are listed between 2½ and 3-point favorites depending on where you shop, as the Texans are a home ‘dog for the first time this season. The total is set at 46 across the board as weather shouldn’t be a factor with temperatures in the low 80’s. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and NFL Network.

Indy heads to Houston
By Sportsbook.ag

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 45.5

The Colts look to win their fourth straight game when they hit the road for a Thursday night matchup with the division foe Texans.

Indianapolis is coming off a 20-13 home victory over the Ravens, thanks to an outstanding defense that held its opponent to just 287 total yards of offense. The Colts will face a Houston team that is struggling offensively after having just lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas. The Texans ran the ball effectively (176 yards) in that game, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Indianapolis has won-and-covered in each of the past three meetings between these teams, as Houston's last victory in this series (both SU and ATS) came on Dec. 16, 2012, when it won 29-17.

The Colts are 20-4 SU against the Texans, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight meetings on the road. Seven of the past nine games played between these teams in Houston have gone Over the total. Indianapolis has three major absences from this game to deal with in LB Robert Mathis (Achilles), who is out for the season, suspended DB LaRon Landry and DL Arthur Jones (ankle), who is questionable.

The Colts started the season 0-2, but are now back over .500 after winning three straight games. QB Andrew Luck (1,617 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) wasn’t as sharp as he has been in last week’s 20-13 win over Baltimore, finishing with 312 passing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He’ll need to limit his mistakes against what’s been a solid defense in Houston. WR Reggie Wayne (30 rec, 384 yards, 1 TD) continues to be Luck’s favorite target, even after tearing his ACL last year. Wayne caught seven passes for 77 yards in the Week 5 win over the Ravens. His ability to create separation is truly special, and he should be a major X-factor against the Texans.

The Colts rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown against a good Baltimore run defense last game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (250 rush yards, 0 TD) continues to be productive for Indianapolis. He rushed 15 times for 68 yards and also caught four passes for 17 yards. Bradshaw, who has four receiving touchdowns this year, will need to find a way to continue running well, even against DE J.J. Watt (2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and this relentless Texans’ front seven. The Colts defense has been decent this year, allowing 240.4 passing yards per game (16th in NFL) and 101.8 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Their rush defense will need to keep up the good work, as they now have to face a red-hot Arian Foster.

The Texans were unable to pickup a victory against the Cowboy last week, but RB Arian Foster (404 yards, 3 TD) did everything he could to carry his team, rushing 23 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 15 yards. Foster has absolutely steamrolled the Colts in his career. Not counting the last meeting, where Foster left the game with an injury on the first possession, he has gained an eye-popping 867 total yards (173 YPG) and 6 TD in five career meetings with this division foe. He’ll need to find a way to produce, as he is the only player on this Texans team that can be relied upon to move the chains on a week-to-week basis.

One player who must improve for this team to succeed is QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,056 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), who has been miserable as of late. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown just two touchdown passes and a horrendous six interceptions. If he doesn’t start taking better care of the football, the Texans could turn somewhere else at quarterback. WR Andre Johnson (27 rec, 320 yards, 0 TD) has looked great for Houston, including hauling in five passes for 58 yards in the loss to Dallas, but he will likely not find the end zone until the quarterback play significantly improves in Houston. The Texans defense is going to need to improve, as they have given up a lot of yards this season. They’re allowing 253.2 yards per game against the pass (22nd in NFL), which is not going to fly against Andrew Luck.

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Thursday Night Football: Colts at Texans
By Covers.com

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3, 46)

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans already have separated themselves from the AFC South pack as they prepare for a first-place showdown Thursday night in Houston. "The division games are huge. I think everybody that has played in the league knows that and really understands how much they mean," Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told reporters. "There is an added emphasis on this week, for sure, especially with it being Indianapolis." The defending division champion Colts have won nine straight against AFC South rivals dating to 2012.

The Colts have won three straight after dropping their first two games by a combined 10 points, and their defense has been impressive during the winning streak. They'll try to continue that trend against a Houston offense that has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the passing game. The Colts have won three straight meetings and 20 of 24 all-time.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as 2.5-point road faves, but that has moved to -3. The total opened 45.5 but has increased a half-point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Colts - LB Jerrell Freeman (Questionable, hamstring), T Jacke Mewhort (Questionable, ankle). Texans - DB Darryl Morris (Questionable, ankle), CB Johnathan Joseph (Questionable, knee), LB Brian Cushing (Out, knee).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-2.0) + Texans (+1.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Pick

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle for the top spot in the watered down AFC South should be interesting given Andrew Luck’s dismal 1-2 SU and ATS career mark as a favorite in games versus winning opponents. Meanwhile like Indy, the Texans enter with an identical 3-2 record despite the fact they’ve lost the stats in all five contests. Go figure." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT THE COLTS (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U): The defense has been a pleasant surprise in Indianapolis, holding three straight opponents under 350 total yards and forcing three turnovers in each contest. That unit turned in a strong effort in Sunday's 20-13 home win over Baltimore, helping the Colts overcome four turnovers. The Colts hope last week's offensive miscues were an anomaly and look for a bounce-back effort from quarterback Andrew Luck, who threw two interceptions against the Ravens but is aiming for his fourth straight 300-yard passing game.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-2, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his first year with Houston, but he has excelled in two home starts against the Colts, compiling 377 yards with four TDs and no interceptions for a 116.6 rating. Running back Arian Foster also has enjoyed facing Indianapolis — he has 752 rushing yards and six TDs in six meetings, including a career-high 231 yards and three scores in 2010. Houston's defense has given up big yardage totals all season but has bailed itself out with a league-best 12 takeaways.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, the Colts are seeing 66.84 percent of support from bettors.