NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 11

NFL Week 2

Steelers (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1) -- Lot of distractions for Ravens in short week with Ray Rice debacle; they lost at home to Bengals last week, allowing 77-yard bomb with 4:58 left after rallying back from down 15-0 at half to take lead. Ravens won four of last six games in this series, with last five series games decided by 3 points or less. Only once in Steelers' last six visits here was game deicded by more than four points. Pitt blew 27-3 halftime lead at home last week, won 30-27 late despite Browns gaining 387 yards, 183 on ground. Steelers lost last three road openers, all by 10+ points- they covered once in last seven road openers, with five of the seven games staying under the total.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers will visit the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium to start off the second week of NFL action. In the Steelers' opening week 30-27 victory over Cleveland, Ben Roethlisberger hit 23-of-34 pass attempts for 365 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception while RB's Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount contributed 2 majors on the ground. Baltimore was beaten 23-16 in it's season opener by Cincinnati with Flacco tossing 345 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int and RB Justin Forsett tallied 70 rushing yards with a major. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have split the last four in this heated division rivalry with Steelers grabbing the loot in three with one game ending in a push. Steelers are also a profitable 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Baltimore. Other notable betting trends: Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine games, 4-2 ATS mark in their last six road games. Ravens enter 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 under Thursday night light's.

Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Preview and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com

A sense of desperation and turmoil hangs over the Ravens as they prepare for Thursday’s AFC North showdown with the Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network). Having lost at home to defending division champ Cincinnati, Baltimore simply cannot afford to start with consecutive home losses to its two biggest rivals. The last five matchups in this physically brutal series have been decided by three or fewer points, each team winning at home last season.

Baltimore also is dealing with fallout from the Ray Rice controversy. The team released the running back Monday, and the league suspended him indefinitely following the release of a video showing Rice knocking out his then-fiancee and now-wife.

The Line: Ravens -3 (even), Total: 44

Line movement: This spread has been bouncing between Baltimore -2.5 and -3 (even) since Sunday, with most shops dealing the former number the day before the game. The total opened at 43.5 and has hit 44.5 at some books. For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Baltimore is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 division games.

Pittsburgh is 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 division games.

The UNDER is 8-3 in Baltimore's last 11 home games. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.

What happened to balance? The Ravens were supposed to re-establish their running game under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. Instead, Joe Flacco threw 62 times against the Bengals in a game that was never out of reach. Baltimore finally found success on the ground by replacing Bernard Pierce with Justin Forsett, who ran 11 times for 70 yards and added five catches. Look for the shifty Forsett to start Thursday.

Helpless vs. no-huddle: The Steelers and their subpar secondary had no answer for Cleveland’s no-huddle attack and blew a 27-3 lead in Week 1 before pulling out the win at the buzzer. That’s very concerning considering the Browns don’t have the same caliber of receivers as Baltimore. Ravens wideouts Torry Smith, Steve Smith and Jacoby Jones all had bad drops Week 1 and will be primed for redemption. Baltimore led the NFL with six drops in the opener.

Big Ben a different player: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been a different player since the team gave him more control of the offense midway through last season. He threw for 278 yards in the first half last Sunday, 365 overall, and brings a loaded arsenal of weapons led by Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and running back Le'Veon Bell. He's thrown 16 TDs and 5 INTs over his last eight games.

Injuries that matter: Ravens starting CB Lardarius Webb (back) was inactive Week 1 despite practicing all week. Baltimore needs him to help slow down the Steelers' speedy wideouts. He's considered questionable.

Steelers RB/KR Dri Archer (knee, ankle) was unable to finish the Week 1 game vs. Cleveland. He’s an explosive returner and gadget player. He's also considered questionable. Click here for the latest injury report.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the 70s, with a 40-50 percent chance of rain. For a detailed forecast, visit wunderground.com.

The Linemakers' lean: We’ve said this often, but Steelers-Ravens games are the easiest lines to make in the NFL – the home team, provided the QBs are healthy, is the 3-point favorite. Eight of the last 11 games between these teams have been decided by exactly three points. But, according to our power ratings, Baltimore is 2.5 points better than Pittsburgh on a neutral field, so factoring in home field, and we give the Ravens the edge here. The Ravens have the better offense and defense, according to our Kenny White, and also considering they are in an early-season must-win situation, we’ll lay the short number Thursday night.

Thursday Night Football: Steelers at Ravens
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44.5)

Preparing to play your fiercest rival on a short week is a daunting enough task, but the Baltimore Ravens are also dealing with the fallout from the Ray Rice saga as they get set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Baltimore lost at Cincinnati in its season opener and faces the prospect of falling two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North. Tight games are the norm in the rivalry, with nine of the last 10 regular-season meetings decided by three points or fewer.

Rice's contract was terminated Monday after videotape from TMZ surfaced showing the running back knocking out his then-fiancee with a punch to the head, which had led to a two-game suspension by the league. "We knew we were going to be without him anyway for the first two games, so our focus is on the Steelers and nothing else," Ravens wideout Torrey Smith said. "It’s way worse for him than it is for us. We just have to get ready for the next one.” Pittsburgh blew a 24-point halftime lead before beating Cleveland on a last-second field goal in its opener.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Ravens as 3-point home faves and are now dealing -2.5. The total opened around 42 or 43.5 and is now up to 44 or 44.5 (depending on where you shop).

INJURY REPORT: Steelers - WR Lance Moore (Questionable, groin), RB Dri Archers (Questionable, ankle). Ravens - CB Ladarius Webb (Questionable, back).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+1.0) - Ravens (+2.0) + home field advantage (-3.0) = Ravens -2.0

WEATHER REPORT: Weather forecasts are calling for 61 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow to the east endzone at 6 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "While the game sets up well for Baltimore with Ravens off the loss and Pittsburgh off the win, the off-field incident involving Ray Rice is a heavy distraction.The Black Birds’ 14-1 SU mark at home in games off a loss is intriguing. The Steelers’ 10-2 ATS record as a dog with revenge off a win is a strong counter." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The early Pittsburgh action is justified. I was preaching 'sell' on the Ravens prior to the preseason getting underway. The Ray Rice saga has nothing to do with it either, he's a declining player. Joe Flacco is a mediocre quarterback leading a mediocre offense. Baltimore's defense could create some problems for Pitt's O-line but the Ravens will likely start this season 0-2. This spread should continue to push downward." Oddsmaker for Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT THE STEELERS (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Pittsburgh running back Le'Veon Bell also was involved in a notable off-field transgression when he was arrested on marijuana possession and DUI charges last month, but he sparkled in the opener by rushing for 109 yards and a TD and catching six passes for 88 yards. Bell wasn't the only second-year player with a strong debut. Markus Wheaton, who did next to nothing as a rookie, had six receptions for 97 yards and provides another favorable option for Ben Roethlisberger (365 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) with a pair of huge catches on the winning drive. An aging defense was a major issue last season for the Steelers and it remains a concern after the unit was gouged repeatedly by Cleveland's no-huddle offense.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): An already unsettled running back situation became further muddled when Bernard Pierce - Rice's replacement - was benched after a costly fumble and replaced by scat back Justin Forsett, who acquitted himself well with 70 yards and a TD on 11 carries. With rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro the only other option in the backfield, Pierce will likely remain the starter but Baltimore needs a more balanced attack. Quarterback Joe Flacco was forced to attempt 62 passes last week, finishing with 345 yards with one TD and one pick. Veteran Steve Smith had an 80-yard scoring pass in his Ravens debut while a bend-but-not-break defense allowed five first-half field goals before surrendering a 77-yard winning touchdown pass.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
* Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in September.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 60 percent of wagers are backing the Steelers.

Steelers at Ravens
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Ravens and Steelers are each coming off tough home contests in Week 1, as the two AFC North rivals hook up at M&T Bank Stadium. This was originally the second of a two-game suspension for Ray Rice, but Baltimore cut the running back after new video surfaced of his altercation with his then-fiance in February. Now, the Ravens will hope to avoid an 0-2 hole not only overall, but inside the division race.

John Harbaugh’s club fell behind the Bengals in the season opener, 15-0 at halftime, in spite of limiting Cincinnati to five field goals. The Ravens rallied back to take a 16-15 advantage in the fourth quarter thanks to an 80-yard touchdown strike from Joe Flacco to newly acquired Steve Smith. Less than a minute later, the Bengals countered with a 77-yard touchdown connection from Andy Dalton to A.J. Green to give Cincinnati a 23-16 edge, which was ultimately the final. Cincinnati covered as one-point road underdogs to snap a four-game road skid at M&T Bank Stadium.

The Steelers cruised to a 27-3 lead over the Browns at halftime in Week 1, looking to easily cover as 5½-point home favorites. However, Cleveland wasn’t ready to give up, as Brian Hoyer spearheaded a comeback with the Browns scoring 24 unanswered points to tie the game at 27-27 in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh’s only points in the second half came in the final seconds of regulation as Shaun Suisham’s 41-yard field goal at the gun gave the Steelers a 30-27 win, but Cleveland cashed as a sharp away underdog.

Whenever the Ravens and Steelers get together, it’s pretty much a guarantee that the game will come down to three points or less. In fact, eight of the past 10 meetings have been decided by less than a field goal, including last season’s two matchups. Following a 1-4 start, Pittsburgh needed a last season field goal to stave off Baltimore at Heinz Field, 19-16 to cash as a 2½-point favorite. In that contest, neither team busted the 300-yard plateau on offense, while the Steelers snapped a two-game home skid to the Ravens.

In the second meeting at M&T Bank Stadium on Thanksgiving, the Ravens held off the Steelers, 22-20 after Pittsburgh couldn’t convert a two-point conversion in the final minute of regulation. Baltimore scored six times in that victory, but five of those scores came on field goals from Justin Tucker. The Steelers cashed as three-point underdogs, as the two teams have alternated wins and losses in each of the past four matchups in Baltimore.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his analysis on this showdown, “While San Francisco and Seattle has eclipsed this rivalry the past few seasons, there is still something special about Pittsburgh and Baltimore. With their history of close games, the underdog has been successful and Pittsburgh has covered in five of the last six trips to Baltimore. Both teams played division games last week and with Pittsburgh winning and Baltimore losing the pressure will be on the host this week. It has certainly not been a great week for the Ravens with some negative post-game comments coming out of the locker room after last week’s loss to Cincinnati and Ray Rice being expelled from the team. This could be a season-defining game in either direction for Baltimore as a 0-2 start would be tough to come back from and this is a team in dire need of a positive result.”

Nelson believes the Steelers need to tie up some loose ends to be successful on Thursday, “For Pittsburgh, the 1-0 start is huge after the nightmare September last season. Getting out-scored 24-3 in the second half last week certainly provides some concerns for the Steelers, however, with a defense that struggled much of last season. Cleveland rushed for 6.1 yards per carry on the Steelers last week, a far departure from the past defensive reputation for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh will also need to clean up 11 penalties from the opening week and Ben Roethlisberger was sacked four times, something the team can’t afford with his injury history.”

Baltimore has struggled covering numbers against AFC North opponents recently, posting a 2-7 ATS record since November 2012, including a 2-4 ATS mark the last six at home against division foes. On the flip side, the Steelers have cashed six of their past eight contests within the division, while going 3-1 ATS in the last four on the road against the AFC North.

From a totals perspective, the Ravens are 9-3 to the ‘under’ in its past 12 home games, while scoring 20 points or less in six of their previous nine home contests since the start of last season. Since allowing 35 points at Baltimore in the 2011 season opener, Pittsburgh has limited division foes to 22 points or less in each of its past eight road division contests.

The Ravens are currently listed as a 2½-point favorite, while the total is set at 44½. The game can be seen nationally on CBS at 8:25 PM EST.

Pitt looks for road win
By Sportsbook.ag

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -3, Total: 44

Division rivals clash Thursday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens.

In Week 1 of the NFL season, both of these teams were involved in sloppy affairs. Pittsburgh came away with a victory in the opening week, but the Ravens were unable to do the same. Now these teams square off against one another in what should be an excellent game with a lot of emotion. Last season, Baltimore won at home against Pittsburgh 22-20 as three-point favorites. The Steelers won their home game against the Ravens 19-16 as 2.5-point favorites. In the past three meetings between these teams, Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS and the two teams have gone Over the total in two of the contests.

This game has the potential to be a shootout, despite the defensive reputation of both franchises. Pittsburgh allowed Brian Hoyer to throw for 230 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is a far superior quarterback who is coming off of a contest in which he threw for 345 yards on an astounding 62 attempts. The Ravens will need to contain Pittsburgh star RB Le’Veon Bell, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown while also catching six passes for 88 yards against the Browns.

Two trends to consider are that Mike Tomlin is 3-12 ATS (20%) on the road in the first month of the season as the Steelers head coach, but home teams where the line is +3 to -3, coming off a loss in the first month of the season, after closing out the previous season with 2+ straight defeats, are a pitiful 28-62 ATS (31%) since 1983.

WR Lance Moore (groin) is questionable for the Steelers and CB Lardarius Webb (back) is questionable for the Ravens.

At the end of the second quarter of the season opener, Shaun Suisham kicked a 34-yard field goal to give the Steelers a 27-3 lead over the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers, however, would pretty much mail it in the rest of the game. They collectively blew a 24-point lead in almost one quarter of action. By the time there was 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, these teams were tied at 27.

The offense in the game stalled at that point, with both teams failing to score until Suisham’s game-winning field goal with no time remaining. WR Antonio Brown was unguardable all day, catching five balls for 116 yards and a touchdown. WR Markus Wheaton lived up to the hype of being a breakout player this season, catching six passes for 97 yards. This tandem of Brown and Wheaton was able to get open whenever they pleased and QB Ben Roethlisberger had no trouble finding them.

New Steelers RB LeGarrette Blount was also able to barrel his way into the end zone for a touchdown. The Steelers defense will need to be better against Baltimore on Thursday. They allowed 183 rushing yards and 230 passing yards to what really is a weak Browns offense.

The Ravens had taken a 16-15 lead with just about six minutes left in the fourth quarter after Steve Smith caught an 80-yard touchdown from Joe Flacco. The Ravens failed to get the two-point conversion and took the field to defend the Bengals on their next drive. Right away, QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green connected on a 77-yard touchdown and that put the Bengals up 21-16. They would also get their two-point conversion on a pass from Dalton to WR Mohamed Sanu. Trailing 23-16, the Ravens were unable to score the rest of the game.

The Ravens offense was able to move the ball effectively but just couldn’t finish when they needed to. WR Steve Smith caught seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown in his Ravens debut. Dennis Pitta hauled in 10 catches for 83 yards.

On the ground, Bernard Pierce lost a fumble for Baltimore and was replaced by Justin Forsett, who really performed well. Forsett rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown while also catching five passes for 14 yards. They will need to find a way to score touchdowns against the Steelers.

Baltimore’s defense was excellent against the rush, allowing only 79 yards on the ground. Outside of the A.J. Green touchdown, they would’ve been able to live with their performance against the pass. They can’t allow big plays like that against Antonio Brown and the Steelers.

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