NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 14th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Bengals host Texans
By: StatFox,com
Both the Texans and the Bengals will be hoping to avoid 0-2 starts when the teams meet in Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football.
The first week of the season didn’t go as planned for Houston and Cincinnati, as both teams were absolutely blown out in their home openers. The Texans hosted the Jaguars in their Sunday game, losing 29-7 as six-point favorites. The Bengals, meanwhile, lost 20-0 as 2.5-point favorites against the Ravens. Both of these teams have playoff aspirations this season, but an 0-2 start can really be tough to overcome. That means that both of these teams will be playing with some serious intensity on Thursday, so don’t expect this to be like your average lousy weekday game. When these teams met last year, Houston came away with the 12-10 victory as a three-point home favorite. The Texans have actually dominated this head-to-head series over the years, as they are 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) against the Bengals over the past three seasons and 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) against them since entering the league as an expansion team. One trend that does, however, favor the Bengals is the fact that they are facing a Texans team that is a miserable 10-19 ATS as an underdog under head coach Bill O’Brien.
The Texans looked miserable against the Jaguars last week, but there is some reason for hope heading into this meeting with the Bengals. The biggest one would be that QB Deshaun Watson will be under center in this one. Tom Savage got the start against Jacksonville in Week 1, but he was atrocious in the first half. The team had originally hoped that he would start at least half of the season for them, but Bill O’Brien decided that enough was enough. Watson then came in and threw for 102 yards with a touchdown and one pick. He added 16 rushing yards as well. Last week, the Bengals struggled to contain the Ravens’ rushing attack. That is good news for Houston, as the team can hit Cincinnati with a heavy dose of both Watson and RB Lamar Miller out of the backfield. That doesn’t mean that the team should neglect the pass, though. The Texans would be wise to get WR DeAndre Hopkins involved as much as they can. On defense, Houston will be hoping that DEs J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney can get some pressure on Andy Dalton. The most important player in this one could, however, be CB Kevin Johnson. Johnson will be tasked with stopping A.J. Green in this one, and the Texans will be blown out if Green has one of his signature huge performances.
The Bengals were embarrassed in their home opener and nobody on the team played worse than QB Andy Dalton. Dalton was just 16-for-31 for 170 yards with no touchdowns and a ridiculous four interceptions. The Bengals will need a lot better from him moving forward, but especially in this game. It’s hard to imagine Cincinnati winning with Dalton throwing for fewer than two touchdowns in this contest, but the team also needs Dalton to be more careful with the ball. If he commits multiple turnovers once again then he will be dooming his team here. One thing he’d be wise to do in this one is target WR A.J. Green more. Green had five catches for 74 yards against the Ravens and will likely need to do even more in this one. Dalton looked in his direction 10 times, but it’s certainly possible that’s not enough. The Bengals also need to get rookie RB Joe Mixon more touches. Cincinnati wants to feed other backs, but Mixon is the most talented on the team. Easing him in might not be the best thing for this Bengals squad, as he is ready to make big plays and can easily jolt this offense.
NFL Week 2
Texans (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1) — Watson gets his first NFL start after playing 2nd half LW; he led Houston’s only TD drive. Texan QB’s were sacked 10 times LW and had 94 penalty yards in a cruddy opener. Under O’Brien, Texans are 12-5-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 7-11-1 as a road underdog. Bengals lost 20-0 at home to Ravens LW, turning ball over five times on 11 drives; they had ball in red zone three times, came up empty. Houston won seven of last nine series games, winning 10-6/12-10 over Bengals last two years. Texans won last three visits here, by 11-1-4 points. Houston lost last two road openers 24-17/27-0; under is 4-0 in their last six AO’s. Last four years, Bengals are 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Texans at Bengals
Covers.com
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38 )
The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were among a glut of teams who put forth feeble offensive performances in their respective season openers. Coming off lopsided losses - each at home - to division opponents, the Bengals and Texans have a short week to solve their offensive woes when they square off in Cincinnati on Thursday night.
Awful quarterback performances low-lighted the Week 1 efforts for each team and there could be a change under center for Houston, which benched starter Tom Savage at halftime in favor of rookie first-round pick Deshaun Watson. "We’re going to do what’s best for the team," said Texans coach Bill O'Brien of the potential quarterback controversy after dealing with the failed Brock Osweiler fiasco last year. "We always try to do what’s best for the team, and try to go from there.” Cincinnati was shut out (20-0 by Baltimore) at home for the first time since 2001 as quarterback Andy Dalton matched a career worst with four interceptions and committed five turnovers. “I have to put this one behind us,” acknowledged Dalton. “I know the type of player that I am and I can be. I can’t let this affect the next one.”
LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened as three-point home favorites but by Thursday morning that number was all of the way up to -6.5. The total hit the betting boards at 38 and remains on that opening number.
POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+0.5) - Bengals (0) + home field (-3) = Bengals -2.5
INJURY REPORT:
Texans - DE J. Watt (Probable, Finger), QB D. Watson (Probable, Ankle), DE J. Clowney (Probable, Foot), S A. Hal (Probable, Hip), C N. Martin (Probable, Ankle), RB A. Blue (Questionable, Ankle), CB K. Johnson (Question, Knee), LB B. McKinney (Questionable, Knee), G J. Allen (Doubful, Ankle), TE R. Griffin (Out, Concussion), LB B. Cushing (Out, Concussion), WR B. Ellington (Out, Concussion), TE S. Anderson (Out, Concussion), WR W. Fuller (Out, Collarbone), T D. Brown (Out, Holdout), TE C. Fiedorowicz (Out, Concussion), T D. Newton (I-R, Knee), WR D. Gray (I-R, Knee).
Bengals - WR J. Ross (Probable, Knee), TE C. Uzomah (Probable, Leg), S S. Williams (Probable, Elbow), CB D. Kirkpatrick (Probable, Foot), CB J. Shaw (Probable, Ankle), DE M. Johnson (Doubtful, Concussion), G T. Hopkins (Out, Knee), LB V. Burfict (Out, Suspension), QB J. Driskel (Out, Thumb), HB T. Carson (I-R, Ankle), TE M. Schreck (I-R, Knee), HB C. Peerman (I-R, Shoulder), WR J. Kumerow (I-R, Leg).
ABOUT THE TEXANS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Reports out of Houston indicate that Watson, who guided Clemson to the national championship in January, will be under center for Thursday's matchup if he is not hindered by an ankle injury during Tuesday's practice. Watson was 12 of 23 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he and Savage absorbed a combined 10 sacks behind a line that is still missing left tackle Duane Brown (contract holdout) and will be without guard Jeff Allen. Perhaps an even bigger issue facing the Texans is a lengthy injury list that features five players in the NFL's concussion protocol, including the team's top three tight ends. Despite the return of start defensive end J.J. Watt, limited to three games last season due to back surgery, Houston allowed 155 yards rushing in the 29-7 loss to Jacksonville.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton, who tossed three of his interceptions in the first half, was the sturdy play of Cincinnati's defense, which surrendered a total of 268 yards (157 rushing) to the Ravens. Dalton, who is already halfway to last season's interception total of eight, compiled a wretched 28.4 passer rating after completing 16 of 31 for 170 yards, with star wideout A.J. Green leading the way with five catches for 74 yards. The Bengals need to sort out their running game -- Giovani Bernard, less than 10 months removed from knee surgery, rushed for 40 yards on seven carries but highly touted rookie Joe Mixon managed only nine yards on eight rushes. Rookie wideout John Ross, the ninth overall pick who was clocked in 4.22 in the 40 at the NFL combine, is expected to make his NFL debut.
TRENDS:
* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-1 in Texans last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 9-2 in Bengals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Texans at a rate of 56 percent and the Under is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.
TNF - Texans at Bengals
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Houston at Cincinnati (-6.5, 37.5)
One of these teams will leave the field 0-2, having dropped a second straight contest against a conference foe. Considering each entered the season with realistic playoff aspirations, the loser will be digging themselves a major hole since both teams are on the road next week as heavy underdogs against Super Bowl contenders.
The Bengals are still looking for their first points of the season after a wasteful effort against the Ravens. Andy Dalton drove the offense into the red zone on multiple occasions only to turn the ball over, throwing an awful interception in the end zone while also fumbling after being sacked once he missed an open receiver who probably would've scored. It was a forgettable effort for Dalton (16-for-31, 170 yards, 4 INTs), but he at least got to finish the game.
Texans starter Tom Savage lasted one half after the Jaguars built a 19-0 lead through the first two quarters in Houston on Sunday. He lasted just 31 plays, completing 7 of 13 passes for 62 yards before being benched in favor of rookie Desean Watson.
Savage's agent, Neil Schwartz, told NBC Sports he didn't understand the move and pointed out that 12 of his client's 13 passes hit receivers in the hands. Because Jaelen Strong was suspended and Will Fuller is out with a broken collarbone, the Texans have continuity issues at receiver behind No. 1 targer DeAndre Hopkins, though they'll get Strong back from suspension and are expected to have Braxton Miller closer to 100 percent after an ankle sprain.
Watson will get his first NFL start on his 22nd birthday, getting his feet wet in the second half of the loss to Jacksonville by throwing a TD pass to Hopkins and also tossing his first pro interception. He's the ninth starting quarterback of head coach Bill O'Brien's tenure, the most any team has employed in that span (since 2014). His mobility figures to give the Texans a fighting chance given their aforementioned issues at receiver and an offensive line that got abused by the Jaguars' front seven and remains without top tackle Duane Brown, who is holding out for a pay raise he certainly deserves given the state of affairs up front.
Although Dalton's five turnovers were the major culprit in Cincinnati's Week 1 woes, his offensive line did him no favors either. The Bengals are also utilizing a running back by committee approach that didn't allow anyone to get comfortable. Jeremy Hill started, rookie Joe Mixon got the most carries and the versatile Giovani Bernard also got time, so we'll see how Lewis juggles his backs in this one. Dalton is just 1-5 against the Texans in his career and probably isn't excited at the prospect of having to bounce back from one of his worst games ever by facing a J.J. Watt-led defense.
The Texans lost the first three meetings between these franchises but have won seven of eight over the past decade, including three in Cincinnati. Two of those victories came in the wild card round of the playoffs, though both of those wins came under O'Brien's predecessor, Gary Kubiak. O'Brien himself is 2-1 with Houston against Marvin Lewis' Bengals and has one more playoff win than his counterpart, who is in his 15th season at the helm but has come up empty in seven postseason games.
The Texans have covered only one of their last six games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. They're 7-2 ATS against Cincinnati, which has covered four of its last six after a brutal run to start last season. The UNDER has prevailed in five consecutive Bengals games and is 6-3 in Houston's last nine.
Houston Texans
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC South: 9/4 to 7/2
Odds to win AFC: 30/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win AFC North: 7/2 to 7/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1
LINE MOVEMENT
The Titans (6/5) and Jaguars (2/1) have climbed over the Texans and Colts as the favorites in the AFC South following Week 1, while Cincinnati's lopsided loss to Baltimore currently has them ahead of only Cleveland (60/1) in the latest WestgateLV odds update for the AFC North. Pittsburgh (4/9) is now a heavier favorite than it was to open the season.
Both teams are now availabale at 50-to-1 to win the AFC and have had 100-to-1 odds placed on them if you like either to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. Since they put up two of the ugliest performaces in Week 1. it's no surprise that oddsmakers quickly turned on them.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bengals opened the week as a 3.5-point favorite and have seen the number top out at 6.5 as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 38.5 and hasn't moved much, although it's most widely available at 37.5 and could close as the lowest total on the young season, surpassing the Texans-Jaguars (38) number from Week 1.
Cincinnati opened as a -180 money line favorite but is now near 3-to-1 (-300) as kickoff approaches.
INJURY CONCERNS
Houston announced that all three of its tight ends are in concussion protocol, with starter C.J. Fiedorowicz landing on IR after his second in less than a month's time. Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson won't play either, joining RB Alfred Blue and receivers Fuller and Bruce Ellington on the sidelines. Guard Jeff Allen is out for the Texans too, so with Brown still holding out, Watson will have to think on his feet in his first career road game.
Linebacker Brian Cushing is concussed too but is beginning a 10-game suspension for using PEDs. It's his second career suspension for performance enhancers and leaves Houston without one of its best tacklers.
Cincinnati is without its best linebacker, Vontaze Burfict, who is serving the second of a three-game suspension after an illegal hit in the preseason. Adam Jones will return from his suspension for getting into trouble off the field, while safety Shawn Williams is expected to debut after missing the opener due to an elbow injury. With CB Dre Kirkpatrick also set to play through a foot issue, the Bengals will have their secondary intact but will be without defensive end Michael Johnson due to a concussion.
Top draft pick John Ross, Cincinnati's fastest player, could debut after missing Week 1 with a knee issue, while tight end C.J. Uzomah (knee) is also likely to play. Guard Trey Hopkins is out.
RECENT MEETINGS (Houston 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)
12/24/16 Houston 20-12 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 41)
11/16/15 Houston 10-6 at Cincinnati (CIN -10, 47)
11/23/14 Cincinnati 22-13 at Houston (HOU -2, 44)
1/5/13 Houston 19-13 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -4, 43)
1/7/12 Houston 31-10 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 38 )
PROPS
Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride that the first score here is a field goal for even money.
Team to score first: (Texans +125, Bengals -145)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +110, Under -130)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
TEXANS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Houston was last in this spot back in January, falling 34-16 as a 16.5-point underdog at New England in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. They were 2-6 SU/ATS as an away 'dog in 2016, falling 27-0 against the Patriots in last year's road opener.
BENGALS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Cincinnati hasn't been favored at home since Dec. 4, 2016, defeating Philadelphia 32-14. The Bengals were 3-2-1 straight up (3-3 ATS) in this role last season, and were only favored by more points than they are tonight twice, beating both the Dolphins and Browns by a combined score of 53-24, covering both times.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 3 has the Texans as a 12-point underdog at the Patriots. The Bengals are a 9-point underdog at Green Bay.
Thursday's Best Bet
VegasInsider.com
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Odds: Houston (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati (-6.5); Total 38
The first “official” TNF game of the year pits two teams that looked absolutely awful in Week 1 against one another with the Houston Texans in Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. It's definitely not how the league wanted to showcase their first TNF game on the network this year, but their really is nowhere to go but up for both organizations after their showing in Week 1.
Cincinnati was shutout 20-0 by Baltimore a week ago as five turnovers by QB Andy Dalton (4 INT's and 1 fumble) sealed the Bengals fate rather early. Many out there were expecting Dalton to have a great year now that all his weapons are healthy, but his start couldn't have been any worse. Bettors should expect a highly improved Dalton in this game as he looks to redeem himself, but how much better he'll be is still the question.
Houston's defense is still quite good on paper – although they didn't look it at times a week ago – and the Texans have a history of frustrating Dalton and the Bengals. Houston is 5-1 SU in six games during the Dalton era in Cincinnati and the Bengals have only scored 20+ points in one of those games.
On the flip side, Houston didn't look much better in a 29-7 loss to Jacksonville last week as brutal play by their own starting QB (Tom Savage) prompted HC Bill O'Brien to quickly abandon everything he stated all preseason and give rookie QB Deshaun Watson his chance.
Watson definitely brought a spark to the Texans offense and going forward I believe he is the right choice under center for Houston this year. There will likely be some “growing pains” at times with Watson this season, and this game could very well be one of them as it's his first career NFL road game. But this was a guy that was known to make plenty of big plays in college and once he gets a bit of experience under his belt, I'm sure those big plays by Watson will start to show up in the NFL as well.
Regarding this point spread, fading a rookie NFL QB in his first road game is a solid angle to take, but quite frankly I don't know how you can trust Dalton and the Bengals to win by more than a TD here. Cincinnati's history against the Texans is another red flag for laying that chalk, but it's not like there can be a whole lot of trust in grabbing the points with the Texans either.
Which leads me to the total and at 38, it's likely going to be one of the lowest TNF totals we see all year. A combined 7 points by these two teams in Week 1 has to make many like the low side of this total, especially when the Bengals are on a 1-8 O/U run in their last nine games overall. Week 1 saw the majority of NFL games cash 'under' tickets as well, and bettors that got burned by those results may flip in fear of not wanting to get burned again. However, with nowhere to go but 'up' for both offenses, maybe going a little contrarian and expecting a relatively high-scoring game in this one.
For one, Watson getting the nod gives the Texans that offensive spark right from the get-go. He and the rest of that unit are going to want to make a “splash” after their performance last week, and I believe the rookie won't disappoint. Yet, he's still a rookie on the road and mistakes are likely to happen. What that means is Cincy is likely to force a turnover or two and hopefully give their own QB a short field to work with.
Andy Dalton was all about the turnovers in Week 1 and while he should be much better in that regard, that's not to say he won't cough it up a couple of times again. Yet, the spark Houston got and will get with Watson starting, Cincinnati could get as well with WR John Ross expected to make his debut.
Ross is an absolute speedster who broke the 40-yard-dash time at the NFL combine this spring and he's there to take the top off opposing defenses. Even just the threat of his speed should give Dalton more room to work underneath to guys like A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, meaning that run of sub-20 point performances against Houston is likely in jeopardy.
These two teams may have a history of playing 'unders,' but with the Texans on a 4-1 O/U run on TNF and the Bengals being 20-7 O/U after scoring less than 15 points in their last outing, we should see both teams threaten the 20-point barrier on a total lined like this. Add in a 5-2 O/U run for the Bengals after suffering a double-digit defeat at home, and the headlines after this game could very well be how well both offenses bounced back after disastrous Week 1 efforts.
Best Bet: Over 38