NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 15th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
NY JETS (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/15/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
NY Jets at Buffalo
New York: 1-5 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game
Buffalo: 7-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road
NFL Week 2
NJ Jets (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1) – Buffalo ran only 48 plays for 160 yards in 13-7 loss at Baltimore; they are 15-8 vs spread in last 23 home games; they won last five series games (both 22-17 LY); home side won six of last eight series games. Jets lost last three visits here, by 19-23-5 points. Bills are 6-2 in last eight home openers (7-2 vs spread in last nine); they’re 4-1 as a favorite in HOs. Jets are 14-5 vs spread in last 19 road openers, covering last three in spite of going 1-4 SU in last five. Jets covered seven of last eight as an underdog in AO’s- since 2011, they’re 10-14-3 as road dogs. Gang Green lost last week despite seven sacks, 52 rushing yards. Bills are 13-8 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less; Jets are 5-8-1 in last 14. Last three Buffalo home openers stayed under, as did six of Jets’ last nine road openers.
Armadillosports.com
AFC East heats up Thursday
By Sportsbook.ag
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Sportsbook.ag Lines: New York (-1); Total set at 40.5
These two AFC East rivals both enter Week 2 after a loss to an AFC North opponent.
Buffalo was in Baltimore and took a 13-7 defeat, while the Jets couldn't hold onto a late lead and gave up a game-winning FG to Cincinnati in the final minute to lose 23-22.
Those defeats put these two organizations in the familiar position of looking up at the New England Patriots in the standings after they beat Arizona on SNF, and now both of these teams know how important a win on Thursday night will be.
Right off the bat, bettors will notice that this line has already seen significant movement since it opened on Sunday evening. The number then was set at Buffalo (-3) and the Bills anemic showing against the Ravens clearly left an impact on the betting public. Buffalo did play alright on defense, but the offense was futile.
The Bills had just 160 yards of total offense in the game and converted just 11 first downs (one by penalty and two on 4th down) the entire game. They were constantly in 3rd-and-long situations that continually put them behind the sticks, and many bettors believe it's too hard to see a drastic change in that regard on a short week.
After all, the Jets did look fairly solid for the most part, but they let Bengals WR AJ Green go off for 180 receiving yards and did give up that final drive that led to a FG. There is no denying that New York looked like the much better team of these two in Week 1, but I would caution against making snap judgments on NFL teams after one week of play. What's that old saying? Nobody is ever as good as they appear after a solid performance, and nobody is ever as bad as they appear after a clunker.
So while the Jets have gotten all the early money in this spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see some buyback on this line soon. Even if that opening number of -3 for Buffalo was solely based on a typical home field advantage (which it wasn't), the Bills have still won five in a row against the Jets (5-0 ATS too), and beat them by identical 22-17 scores in both meetings a year ago.
In fact, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 2-8 SU in 10 career games against a Rex Ryan-led defense and that's one of those trends that makes you wonder if Rex is completely in Fitzpatrick's head at this point.
Home teams have typically been the better bet on TNF since these games became a regular part of the NFL schedule in 2006, and you likely aren't going to see a better number on the Bills then the one that's currently out there. The Jets may have looked like the better team after Week 1, but I'm betting they'll have the worse record after Week 2.
Take the Buffalo Bills +1 and/or on the money line.
NFL Week 2 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: There’s truly no such thing as a Week 2 must-win, but this one will make you think twice about how definitive that statement is. The Jets suffered a gut-wrenching home loss to Cincinnati where they played well, but multiple core guys made mistakes, so a setback here could linger. Given how tough the rest of the early schedule is, a win could make a difference in salvaging the season. The Bills scored a week-low 7 points and have top receiver Sammy Watkins attempting to gut it out through discomfort in his surgically repaired left foot, so the clouds are already circling entering this key home game. Tyrod Taylor’s mobility should come in handy against a New York d-line that gets after quarterbacks as well as anyone in the league. He’ll be operating behind a new starting left tackle since Cordy Glenn has been ruled out due to an ankle injury.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 40)
The Buffalo Bills' offense looked anemic in a season-opening loss and is in need of a jolt as the club hosts coach Rex Ryan's former team in the AFC East-rival New York Jets on Thursday night. Buffalo recorded just 11 first downs, 48 plays behind center and 160 yards of total offense in a 13-7 setback to Baltimore on Sunday.
"Tape doesn't lie,” Ryan told the New York Post on Monday. "We really struggled and we clearly have to get better in a hurry ... and, oh by the way, we're playing against even a better defense (in the Jets)." While New York's aggressive front recorded seven sacks in its 23-22 season-opening loss to Cincinnati, veteran cornerback Darrelle Revis granted A.J. Green a cushy stay on Revis Island and could receive the call to shadow Sammy Watkins. The third-year wideout, who insisted to ESPN that he'll "definitely play" on Thursday despite nursing a sore left foot, reeled in 11 receptions for 136 yards as the Bills posted a 22-17 victory over the Jets in January for their fifth straight win in the series. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three fourth-quarter interceptions versus his former team as New York was derailed in its bid to clinch its first playoff berth since 2010.
LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but since then bettors and injury concerns has caused the line to jump the fence to Jets -1.
As for the total, it has come down a fair amount since opening at 42.5 with the current total sitting at 40. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-1) - Bills (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Bills +0.5
INJURY REPORT:
Jets - WR Q. Enuwa (probable Thursday, ribs), LB B. Carter (questionable Thursday, shoulder), S C. Pryor (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), DE M. Wilkerson (questionable Thursday, toe), TE K. Davis (questionable Thursday, ribs), LB D. Harris (questionable Thursday, shoulder), CB D. Roberts (doubtful Thursday, foot), DL J. Jenkins (doubtful Thursday, calf).
Bills - WR S. Watkins (questionable Thursday, foot), RB J. Williams (questionable Thursday, ribs), CB K. Seymour (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR W. Powell (questinable Thursday, undisclosed), Qb C. Jones (questionable Sunday, shoulder), TE J. Dray (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT J. Worthy (questionable Thursday, knee), TE C. Clay (questionable Thursday, knee), T C. Glenn (out Thursday, ankle), S C. Anderson (out Thursday, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Orchard Park. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the low 60's during the game. There could be a six to seven mil per hour wind gusting from east to west, towards the northwestern endzzone.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Monday morning we were sitting at Bills -2.5, but were taking all Jets action at that number (over 90 percent) forcing us to go move all the way to the Jets -1, where we were still seeing over 80 percent of the action on the Jets. We are now Jets -1.5 with just under 85 percent of the action on the Jets We have also moved the total down from 42.5 to 40.5 where we are seeing just under 75 percent on the Over." - Michael Stewart of CarbonsSports.ag.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "For the second consecutive season the Bills and Jets meet on a Thursday night. Both teams are coming off shaky week one performances. Buffalo's simplistic road game plan at Baltimore back-fired as penalties ruined their chances. Meanwhile, the Jets could not avoid big mistakes on their home field against the powerful Bengals."
"With a short week in a division game Vegas has this setup with a common resulting number of one-point in the Jets favor (four games decided by a point week one)." - Zack Cimini.
ABOUT THE JETS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U): New York's offense received mixed reviews in the opener as versatile veteran Matt Forte (96 rushing, 59 receiving) amassed 155 yards from scrimmage in his debut, but former Chicago Bears teammate Brandon Marshall was limited to just three catches and committed a costly drop in the fourth quarter. The 32-year-old Marshall downplayed any residual issues with an ailing hip and looks to get back on track versus Buffalo, against which he has reeled in a touchdown pass in each of his last four meetings. Leonard Williams recorded 2 1/2 sacks in the opener, fellow defensive tackle Steve McLendon added two and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson had 1 1/2 for the Jets, who will see Sheldon Richardson make his 2016 debut after serving a one-game suspension for violating the personal-conduct policy.
ABOUT THE BILLS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Ryan dismissed the possibility of shutting down Watkins after the New York Daily News reported that the move could be done as a precaution following the wideout's admission that his surgically repaired foot was sore. Watkins had four catches for a team-high 43 yards against the Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor only connected on 15 of 22 tosses for 111 yards in the game. LeSean McCoy, who recorded his 60th career touchdown in the opener, gashed the Jets for 112 yards rushing and five catches for 47 yards receiving in Buffalo's 22-17 win on Nov. 12.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Buffalo.
* Bills finished last season 4-0 ATS in their final four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Bills' last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five games in Buffalo.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing the shot road fave in this spot, with 60 percent of wagers backing the Jets. As for the total, 56 percent of wagers are on the Under.
TNF - Jets at Bills
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
N.Y. Jets (-1, 40.5) at Buffalo
Rex Ryan admitted last year's meetings against his former team were tough, especially the one back at East Rutherford. After six seasons with the Jets in which he went 46-50, Ryan was let go in late 2014. He surfaced as the head coach of the Bills just over two weeks later, staying in the AFC East and guaranteeing that these games against New York would remain spicy.
He beat the Jets twice last season by identical 22-17 results, costing them what would've been their first playoff appearance since he guided them to the AFC Championship Game in 2010 by winning the regular-season finale.
Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled in the red zone and was intercepted on each of New York's final three possessions in the loss. The defense surrendered third down conversions on nine of 20 tries and Buffalo controllled time of possession by over 18 minutes.
Given how last season ended, you can imagine Jet Nation is a little frustrated with Fitzpatrick, who was foiled by Cincinnati inside the 10 and picked him off to end the contest. Fitzpatrick was intercepted to end comeback bids in both New York losses to Buffalo last season. Although the former Bills quarterback set a Jets franchise record with 31 touchdown passes, his 15 picks were still too many, especially since they were often extremely costly.
While Fitzpatrick and NYJ management were embroiled in a bitter contract dispute during the offseason, ultimately resulting in a 1-year, $12 million deal, the Bills rewarded Tyrod Taylor for his breakout season with a six-year, $92 million extension. He struggled in the season opener at Baltimore, finishing 15-for-22 for just 111 yards, an average of 5.0 yards per attempt.
Buffalo managed just 11 first downs, went 3-for-13 on third down and ended up averaging just 3.3 yards per play against the Ravens. They'll now look to turn things against a Todd Bowles defense that registered seven sacks and an interception against the Bengals but saw veteran corner Darrelle Revis play one of the worst games of his career.
New York Jets
Season win total: 8 (Over +150, Under -170)
Odds to win AFC East: 5/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 20/1 to 30/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 60/1
Buffalo Bills
Season win total: 8 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC East: 7/1 to 12/1
Odds to win AFC: 20/1 to 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 80/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Both of these teams saw their odds decrease after Week 1 when the WestgateLV SuperBook adjusted its conference and Super Bowl futures. When the book sent out its early Week 2 numbers last week prior to the season opener, Buffalo was originally listed as a 3-point favorite, but as of Thursday morning, the Jets had been moved into the favorite's role, laying a point to 1.5 at most shops. The total remains about the same, hovering in the 40-40.5 range.
BANGED-UP BILLS
Sammy Watkins led Buffalo with four receptions on six targets for 43 yards against the Ravens last week, all team-highs. He struggled with pain in his surgically-repaired left foot enough that there was talk he’d be shelved for at least a few weeks in order to feel better, but Watkins was having none of it, vowing to play in this game despite not being at 100 percent. Tight end Charles Clay, who accounted for the Bills longest play with a 33-yard reception in Baltimore, will also be limited by an ankle injury but plans on being out there. The same can’t be said for starting left tackle Cordy Glenn, who has been a fixture in the starting lineup for all 62 career games, leading to earning him his own 5-year/$65 million extension this offseason. Glenn injured his ankle against the Ravens and won’t play, replaced by 23-year-old Cyrus Kouandjio, who will make just his third NFL start. The Bills are already without one starting tackle, Seantrel Henderson, who is suspended for four games due to a substance abuse violation. Standout defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is serving a similar suspension, rookie Shaq Lawson is unable to perform after shoulder surgery and defensive end Jerel Worthy (knee) is questionable after a strong outing in the opener. It’s fair to say the Bills are a little thin along both lines and hoping playmakers Watkins and Clay can be productive despite their ailments.
JETS OUT TO SNAP SKID
After winning five consecutive games to put themselves on the brink of the playoffs in 2015, the Jets’ losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati in the ’16 season opener put New York in danger of its first three-game losing streak under Bowles. The Jets lost 11 of 12 under Ryan in ’14, but rid themselves of that stench last season. They went 4-4 on the road last season, winning the first two games away from home under Bowles. Five of New York’s last six games have been decided by a single possession. Two of those have gone to overtime. New York's last win over Buffalo came on Sept. 22, 2013, a 27-20 triumph engineered by current backup Geno Smith. The Jets haven't beaten the Bills upstate in Orchard Park since Nov. 6, 2011, coming in on a four-game losing streak.
LIFE BEGINS AT FORTE
The Bears turned the page from 30-year-old Matt Forte despite 1,387 combined yards and seven touchdowns last season, opting to save money and develop second-year back Jeremy Langford. Forte seems intent on proving Chicago let him go prematurely and looked sharp in his Jets debut, carrying 22 times for 96 yards and hauling in five passes for 59. Together with Bilal Powell, the Jets have themselves one of the NFL’s top rushing combos so long as they stay healthy.
RECENT MEETINGS (Buffalo 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
1/3/16 Buffalo 22-17 vs. N.Y. Jets (NYJ -3, 41)
11/12/15 Buffalo 22-17 at N.Y. Jets (NYJ -2.5, 43.5)
11/24/14 Buffalo 38-3 vs. N.Y. Jets (BUF -2.5, 42.5)
10/26/14 Buffalo 43-23 at N.Y. Jets (NYJ -3, 40)
11/17/13 Buffalo 37-14 vs. N.Y. Jets (NYJ -2.5, 39)
BUFFALO OFFENSE SEEKS SPARK
Only the Rams managed less points than the Bills in Week 1 after being blanked by San Francisco. LeSean McCoy found the end zone from 1-yard out on 4th-and-goal after he and Taylor took turns being denied the first three times, finishing off a 12-play, 75-yard drive that was by far Buffalo’s longest. Seven of the Bills’ nine drives lasted six plays or fewer, with five being three-and-outs. Their final drive featured both a costly penalty and a sack. Buffalo wasn’t held to single-digits in any game last year, scoring a season-low 10 at home against the Giants last October. The Bills scored 20 or more points in 12 of their 16 games in 2015, so they’ll be looking to get their act together against a defense whose tendencies they’re very familiar with.
PROPS
Of the props available below at the Westgate Superbook, I'm most partial to the Eric Decker touchdown wager. Fitzpatrick seems to look for him near the end zone and has found him for touchdowns in eight consecutive home games, which means he's scored in his last nine regular-season games in the state of New York. Decker has 14 TD receptions in his last 17 games dating back to the 2014 season finale.
Fitzpatrick 1.5 TDs: (+100 over, -120 under)
Fitzpatrick 227.5 passing yards: (-110 o/u)
Forte 68.5 rushing yards: (-110 o/u)
Decker TD: (Yes +130, No -150)
Taylor completions 18.5: (-110 o/u)
Taylor TD passes + INTs: (2 -110 o/u)
Combined sacks 4.5: (+100 under, -120 over)
Total points: Jets, Bills 20.5 (+100 over, -120 under)
JETS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
New York was favored in an opposing stadium five times last season and once as the "road" team at Met Life Stadium against the Giants. The Jets went 3-3 straight up and 3-2-1 ATS in this role, losing at Buffalo in the regular-season finale as a three-point favorite. In 2014, they were only a road favorite once, beating Tennessee 16-11 on Dec. 14, 2014.
BILLS AS A HOME DOG
Buffalo won its first game as a home underdog last season, defeating Indianapolis 27-14 to make a winner out of Ryan in its home opener. The Bills closed +3 in the season finale against the Jets and therefore went 2-1 SU and ATS in this role in 2015, losing only to the Bengals. Over the past three seasons the Bills are 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.