NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 17

NFL Week 2 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos next offensive touchdown will be their first, so you know Peyton Manning is going to welcome a national stage to prove once again that he’s not done. Considering they held serve against an elite Baltimore defense and it was his first game in a new system where he’s not being asked to do as much, dismissing him as done may be a mistake. Still, this challenge won’t be easy. Manning is 11-1 in his career against the Chiefs, but considering how the defense swarmed Houston’s Brian Hoyer in the season opener, Denver’s offense will be up against it on a short week of preparation.

NFL Week 2

Broncos (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0) -- Chiefs were 5-2 as home favorites last year, after being 5-19-1 in that role from 2007-13. Since '07, Denver is 14-19 as road dog but they've covered last four tries as a road dog in division games. Denver won last six games vs Chiefs, all six by 7+ points; they won last four visits here, but last week, they averaged only 3.4 ypa in 19-13 win over the Ravens last week, didn't score an offensive TD, didn't get into red zone until last 4:00 of game. KC is 2-5 in their last seven home openers- they're 2-8-1 as favorites in home openers; under is 19-3-2 in their last 24. Only Denver TD last week was scored by the defense.

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NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium to start off the second week of NFL action. In Broncos' opening week 19-13 victory over Baltimore, Peyton Manning looked a little weak and a lot off target hitting 24-of-40 passes for 175 yards, no TD's and a pick. A good thing the Denver defense was solid or Broncos would have seen Manning's string of three straight Broncos home openers come to a halt. As for Kansas City, QB Alex Smith contrary to public perception didn't have much trouble against a very tough Texan defense hitting 22-of-33 for 243 yards with 3 TD's no interceptions in a season opening victory.

The Broncos have won six straight against their AFC West rival (4-2 ATS). Yet, offshores have Chiefs a field goal favorite for Thursday's tilt. When handicapping this contest a few betting trends to ponder. Chiefs have responded facing a division opponent following a win the previous effort posting a 4-1 ATS record. Chiefs have covered 6 of their last 7 home games. Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five division games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in Tursday Night Football. Broncos have not been good bets as underdogs going 2-5 ATS last seven in the roll. The past nine meetings, 'Under' has been the right choice with 7 'Under', 1 'Over', 1 'Push'.

Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

DENVER BRONCOS (1-0) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City -3, Total: 42.5

Early season pole position in the AFC West is on the line at Arrowhead on Thursday night when the Chiefs host the Broncos.

Peyton Manning’s season is off to a rocky start despite Denver's Week 1 win over Baltimore, and the team visiting a tough matchup with star TE Travis Kelce and Kansas City which rolled on the road at Houston last Sunday.

Manning is currently mired in the least productive stretch of his career having thrown just three touchdown passes in his past five regular-season games. Prior to this current spurt, Manning had a pair of five-game runs with four TD tosses; the first five games of his career and the final two games in 2004 crossing over to the beginning of 2005. Fortunately for the Mile High faithful, the Broncos are 4-1 over this Manning skid thanks in large part to a steadily improving defense. The only team to score more than 17 points against Denver in those five games was the Bengals in Week 15. The Broncos lost that game 37-28 and Manning threw four interceptions, something he hadn’t done since 2010.

A similar defensive effort to last week bodes well for the Broncos, as Kansas City is just 36-57 ATS when scoring 15-to-21 points since 1992. RB C.J. Anderson (questionable) was unable to find running room against the Ravens, racking up just 48 total yards before spraining his toe. The Denver offense was only able to amass 219 total yards, which was by far the lowest in the Manning era (295 vs. SD in 2013 was only other game under 300). Manning has history on his side in this matchup though, posting an 11-1 career mark against the Chiefs while completing 62% of his passes with 25 TD and just eight picks.

Peyton Manning is 6-0 versus the Chiefs as a member of the Broncos, posting 16 TD passes to just three interceptions. In the past five years, Manning is 25-14 ATS on the road, and Denver is 3-1 ATS versus KC since 2013. Last year’s meeting at Arrowhead was dominated by the Broncos defense, which held the Chiefs to just 151 total yards while forcing three turnovers and sacking Alex Smith six times. Smith has never beaten Manning head-to-head, dropping both games as quarterback of the 49ers and the four meetings over the past two seasons. Denver is 9-2 ATS in the past three seasons when allowing 150-to-200 passing yards, but over the same stretch the club is just 1-6 ATS when throwing for 250-to-300 yards.

The Broncos defense was able to get off the field all afternoon, holding the Ravens to 2-of-13 on 3rd Downs while limiting their offense to 173 yards, their lowest since 2011. Former Ravens FS Darian Stewart iced the game with his third career interception in the end zone to halt a 14-play, 64-yard drive in the final minutes.

CB Aqib Talib came up with a pick-six of Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco who finished the day just 18-of-32. Talib rumbled 51 yards to glory to pull ahead 16-13. In a game with zero offensive touchdowns, Denver K Brandon McManus was the star of the game, booting three field goals including a pair from 50+ in the first quarter.

RB Jamaal Charles will be a huge factor in the outcome on Thursday, as Kansas City is 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons when gaining 4-to-4.5 yards per carry. The Chiefs stormed out of the blocks at NRG Stadium in Houston in Week 1, taking a quick 14-0 lead thanks to a pair of touchdown passes from QB Alex Smith to TE Travis Kelce. Kansas City went into the half leading 27-6 after Smith connected with Charles from seven yards out with five minutes to go in the second. Smith finished a crisp 22-of-33 for 243 yards and 3 TD while his offense didn’t turn the ball over once to the much-hyped Texans defense.

DE Justin Houston and the Chiefs front seven dominated the line of scrimmage to the tune of five sacks, one of which saw Houston strip Texans QB Brian Hoyer inside the 10-yard line. DL Allen Bailey (career-high two sacks) recovered the ball on the seven-yard line, which led to the Charles TD reception on the very next play.

First round pick CB Marcus Peters intercepted Hoyer on the first offensive play for the Texans in 2015, making them one of only two teams to open the season with an interception on their first play of the year (Tampa Bay).

Kansas City will likely need to improve on a dismal 3-of-13 on 3rd Downs to win Thursday, but its defense held Houston to just 3-of-14 conversions and 0-for-1 on 4th down. The Texans ended up outgaining the Chiefs 396-330, but K.C. held its opponent 98 yards on the ground, and much of the total yards occurred in the second half. In the past three years the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS when allowing 4.5-5.0 yards per carry, with the average margin of victory at 11.6 points per game in this scenario.

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TNF - Broncos at Chiefs
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

You've heard this one before, but keep reading anyway.

Peyton Manning is done. It’s over.

The future Hall of Famer is already making more appearances in Papa John’s commercials than he does in highlight reels, unless you count the ones where his recent struggles are being documented. Let’s go ahead and hit the pause button on that narrative right there.

On Thursday night, all eyes will be on Manning as he takes the field in Kansas City for a key early AFC West showdown. Most will be looking to see another indication that the NFL’s all-time leader in career touchdown passes has lost it. The Chiefs are three-point favorites. Manning, who failed to lead his offense into the end zone in Denver’s 19-13 win over Baltimore, has been saddled with the lowest projected total (42.5) for a game involving his Broncos since 2012, when the regular-season finale against these Chiefs closed at 41.

Over the past two seasons, the lowest total involving Denver and their hurry-up offense closed at 47. Including the playoffs, 20 games have had a projected total of 50 or higher. Welcome to 2015, Peyton.

Prevailing sentiment is that he can no longer run a productive offense. The fact the Broncos defense look like world-beaters also factors in, but respect for the five-time MVP is unquestionably at an all-time low.

On one hand, numbers don’t lie. Over the last seven games, a stretch which began with last year’s trip to Arrowhead (Nov. 30) and includes a 24-13 home playoff loss to Indianapolis, the 39-year-old Manning has thrown just six touchdowns against seven interceptions. He’s completed 160 of 241 passes for 1455 yards in that span, so his yards per attempt is barely over 6.00, which ranks among the bottom 20 percent of starting quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.

He’s only topped more than 10 yards per attempt once in the last seven games (Dec. 14 at SD), and his QBR has been over 90 only once (same game). Even if you scoff at the numbers and point out that the Broncos are 5-2 in those starts, it’s obvious Manning’s days of being the driving force within an offense appear over.

To say he’s done, in my opinion, is a massive overreaction. It’s downright disrespectful. People have been looking to sprinkle dirt on Manning’s open coffin for the past few seasons. Remember when he came back from neck fusion surgery after missing the entire 2011 season? Remember reading about the journey of his comeback, from teaching himself how to throw again to building back up strength? Parts of his upper body atrophied. There were people imploring for him to retire.

Manning hasn’t missed a game since. He’s played in four playoff contests. He’s delivered nearly 1,500 passes. He led the league in passing yardage and passing touchdowns in 2013. He’s made two more Pro Bowls and won another MVP.

He has no feeling in his fingertips. His passes often wobble like the 10-year-old who is learning to throw a spiral.

He’s won 30 of 43 NFL games in that span, including the first one of this season, defeating a Ravens team considered a co-favorite in a loaded AFC North. Sportsbook.ag still has the Broncos (5-to-1) behind only New England (3-to-1) to win the conference. If Manning were really done, you would think Denver would be getting better odds.

This seven-game stretch we’re trying to bury Manning for has featured an intrusive quad injury that caused last season’s dramatic dip and an adjustment to a brand new system while facing an elite Baltimore defense in the 2015 opener.

That brings us back to Thursday and the opening game of Week 2. The stage is all Manning’s to thrive or fail on, but we should get used to the reality that putting an entire team on his shoulders is no longer in his job description. He’ll share the spotlight with his impressive defense and a running game expected to be fortified by new head coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme that has moved Manning into more of game manager role. Once he grows accustomed to what he’s doing, he’ll probably excel in it.

Kubiak heeded Broncos Executive vice president and GM John Elway’s call to return home in part to help Manning navigate the final years of his career while attempting to take full advantage of a defense that is going to be the driving force these next few years, hopefully resulting in one more Super Bowl run. To try and write Manning off because he didn’t look comfortable in the season opener reeks of Tim Duncan syndrome. Just because he’s never going to throw 55 touchdowns again doesn’t mean he can’t get back to throwing 26, a number he’s hit three separate times as a tremendous career-low. It doesn’t mean he can’t will a strong team to a championship the way the Spurs star has on multiple occasions despite being past his prime.

We’re watching Manning begin the process of his final manifestation. Barring injury, you won’t see backup Brock Osweiler taking the field to replace an ineffective Manning. He’s too valuable recognizing coverages and making the right calls and reads to deliver wins like the 19-13 result Denver escaped with in Week 1.

Andy Reid is authoring a similar blue print in Kansas City, building an offense around an elite back in Jamaal Charles while trusting Alex Smith to make the right decisions at the controls. Defensive stars like Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe up front are going to help win a lot of football games, as they managed to in wreaking havoc in the Houston Texans backfield last Sunday. Can they effectively get to Manning, who was uncharacteristically sacked four times by Baltimore?

Certainly, if you’re looking to fade Manning, the circumstances appear to be in your favor. Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the loudest atmospheres in the league, one that is capable of helping swallow an unstable offense. The Chiefs defense is fierce. Broncos playmakers C.J. Anderson (foot) and Demariyus Thomas (hand) will both be at less than 100 percent.

Manning is 11-1 in his career against the Chiefs, but the quarterback that amassed those figures isn’t the same guy you’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Do you still believe in this new version’s ability to go on the road and intelligently lead his team through obstacles? Your wager will largely hinge on that answer, so be careful underestimating a quarterback who has spent most of this decade beating the odds.

Greatness tends to manifest itself in different ways. Manning may find a way to do it as a game manager. This also may be far too great a challenge to overcome this early in his new endeavor. All eyes are squarely on him.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Chiefs
By Covers.com

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 41.5)

The Denver Broncos have won four consecutive AFC West titles but they'll face an early-season showdown for division supremacy when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night. The Broncos failed to score an offensive touchdown in a 19-13 victory over visiting Baltimore while Kansas City eased to a 27-20 win at Houston that was not as close as the final score indicated.

Denver quarterback Peyton Manning attempted to allay concerns over the lack of productivity from the offense as the team adopts more of a ball-control offense under new coach Gary Kubiak. "Everybody is looking for these summaries of our offense and our team after Week 1 and I just don't think we're going to be able to do that," Manning said. "It's Week 1. We're a work in progress. ... We're trying to get better every single week." Meanwhile, the Chiefs shot out to a 27-9 halftime lead over the Texans behind three scoring passes from Alex Smith, but they face a nemesis in Manning and the Broncos. Denver has won six consecutive meetings in the series, including its last four visits to Kansas City.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point home faves but that is now up to -3. The total is down to 41.5 from the opening 43.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - QB Peyton Manning (Probable, back), LB Lerentee McCray (Probable, groin), S David Bruton Jr. (Probable, ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (Probable, hand), S Darian Stewart (Questionable, groin), DE Malik Jackson (Questionable, concussion), RB C.J. Anderson (Questionable, toe), S Omar Bolden (Doubtful, foot), DE Kenny Anunike (Out, knee). Chiefs - LB Tamba Hali (Probable, neck), DB Sean Smith (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 15 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the north at around 14 miles per hour.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-4) + Chiefs (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver showed on Sunday that they are capable of winning games against solid foes even when Peyton Manning looks like the 39-year-old QB that he is. Alex Smith still didn't throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, but he did throw three TD?s to TE Travis Kelce and RB Jamaal Charles." Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Chiefs as 2.5 point faves at home and after the struggles of the Denver offense on Sunday we went to Chiefs -3 where we currently sit adjusting the juice as the week has moved on. The Chiefs are seeing 58 percent of the action to cover the spread as of writing this." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Manning's arm strength, or lack thereof, has been a hot-button topic throughout the preseason and he finished with only 175 yards without a scoring pass in the opener, but he has thrown for 1,736 yards with 16 TDs versus three interceptions in six meetings against the Chiefs since joining Denver. C.J. Anderson was limited to 29 yards on 12 carries while dealing with a sprained toe, but he was at practice Tuesday night along with star wideout Demaryius Thomas, who suffered a hand injury versus Baltimore. The Broncos' defense, which produced the lone touchdown in Week 1 on Aqib Talib's interception return, limited the Ravens to only 173 total yards.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): Smith has been typecast as a game manager but he got a vote of confidence - “Alex was on the money all day” - from tight end Travis Kelce, who had a huge opening game with six catches for 106 yards and a pair of scores. Running back Jamaal Charles had a relative quiet season debut with 57 yards rushing while matching newcomer Jeremy Maclin with five catches, but he has scored 15 touchdowns in his last 14 games overall. Kansas City yielded an AFC-low 281 points last season and received a boost with the return of linebacker Derrick Johnson, who registered a team-high eight tackles in his first game back after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC West.
* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of Covers users are the Chiefs.