TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 9/18/2014, 8:25 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Tampa Bay: 9-6 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Atlanta: 28-13 OVER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Bucs are 10-15 ATS versus NFC opponents including 0-2 this year, 1-3 ATS playing on Thursday night, 4-10 ATS playing in September and they’re 7-11 ATS on the road when the total is between 42½ and 45. Tampa Bay is 51-29 Under playing in September including 8-2 Under recently, but they’re 4-0 Over playing on Thursday night. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS playing on Thursdays. Atlanta is 16-8 Under when playng on a short week, 28-19 Under as home favorites of 3½ to 7 points, but 4-1 Over lately. In this series Tampa Bay is 11-5 ATS playing in Atlanta.
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons will kick-off Week 3 of the NFL season Thursday night at the Georgia Dome. Buccaneers unable to generate any sustained offense, scoring just 15.5 points/game on a lowly 298 yards/game have a daunting task keeping up with high-octane Falcons generating a league second best 438.5 yards/game and 23.5 PPG. If that were not enough, Lovie Smith's troops could be without four starters on the defense side. There is no denying the disparity in talent and making a case for Tampa Bay has it's challenges. However, not grabbing the 6.5 point spot could be costly. Road underdogs have been money in the bank this season posting a 15-9-1 record against the betting line and Bucs have cashed 9 tickets the past 14 meetings (9-4-1 ATS) including 5-of-7 at the Georgia Dome (5-2 ATS). One final betting nugget - Falcons have not been good bets lately as chalk posting a 5-8-1 ATS record.
NFL Week 3
Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1) -- Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.
Armadillosports.com
Bucs look for first victory
By Sportsbook.ag
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -6.5, Total: 45
The Buccaneers look to avoid an 0-3 start when they head to Georgia Dome on Thursday night to take on the Falcons.
Tampa Bay had a home matchup with the Rams on Sunday, but was unable to come away with a much-needed victory early in the season. The Bucs lost 19-17 despite being 4.5-point home favorites, and have now lost five straight games (SU and ATS) dating to last season. The Falcons, on the other hand, were 5.5-point underdogs in Cincinnati and were blown out 24-10 in a game where both their offense and defense really struggled.
Atlanta will need to capitalize on the mistakes of Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown, who has already thrown three interceptions this season. The Buccaneers, however, will likely try to slow this game down, as they know they have no chance of beating the Falcons in a fast-paced shootout.
These clubs have split the season series in each of the past three years, and while Atlanta is 5-1 SU in the past six home meetings in this series, Tampa Bay is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 visits to Georgia Dome. Mike Smith is 9-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Falcons, and he is also 13-4 ATS after a double-digit loss by 10.
The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 Falcons home games.
The Bucs could be without some key defensive players in this game with DT Gerald McCoy (hand), LB Mason Foster (shoulder), S Bradley McDougald and DE Michael Johnson (ankle) all questionable, but the good news is that star RB Doug Martin (knee) is expected to return after a one-game absence. Falcons stud OT Jake Matthews (ankle) has been upgraded to probable, as have starting WRs Roddy White (hamstring) and Julio Jones (ankle).
The Buccaneers have had a very disappointing start to their season. They first lost to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team and were then unable to defeat a Rams squad that was starting third-stringer Austin Davis at quarterback. QB Josh McCown has been the victim of playing behind a shaky offensive line. He’s been sacked only four times, but has had little time to get rid of the ball and it’s showing. McCown was 16-of-21 for 179 yards and an interception in the loss to St. Louis, but did rush for two touchdowns.
RB Bobby Rainey started in place of the injured RB Doug Martin and performed extremely well, carrying the football 22 times for 144 yards while also catching three passes for 30 yards. Regardless of whether or not Martin returns in Week 3, Rainey has earned himself more touches with last week's performance, but Martin is still the main ball carrier who has loved visiting Georgia Dome with 189 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC in his two visits to Atlanta. Tampa Bay must get the running game going against the Falcons, as the club is coming off a game in which it allowed 170 yards on the ground to the Bengals.
The Bucs, however, will have trouble against Matt Ryan’s offense. Tampa Bay has allowed 220.5 yards per game through the air this season, but that was against Derek Anderson and Austin Davis. Now they face a legitimate passer and will have to do a better job of covering receivers.
The Falcons went into Cincinnati in Week 2 and came away with a disappointing loss. The defense for this team has already struggled, allowing 317.5 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and 154.5 YPG on the ground this year. Following up a 448-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Saints, QB Matt Ryan was horrendous against the Bengals, going 24-of-44 for 231 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.
Luckily he’ll get to face a Tampa Bay defense that made Austin Davis look like a legitimate NFL starter, and Ryan has had plenty of success in this series, going 8-4 SU (but 4-7-1 ATS), including a 5-1 SU mark at home. In the past four home starts versus Tampa Bay, Ryan has completed 68% of his passes for 213 YPG, 7 TD and 0 INT.
WR Julio Jones should have no trouble getting open as he is capable of doing so against any team in the league, and has done so many times versus Tampa Bay. In four career meetings in this divisional matchup, he has 394 receiving yards and 3 TD, and Jones caught seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.
Atlanta would be wise to get its running backs more involved in the offensive game plan. RB Steven Jackson is the main ball carrier, but has just 23 rushes for 98 yards in two games. If the Falcons can make opponents respect their running game more, it will open up the field for Ryan to make more plays.
The Tampa Bay defense has had issues this season, but if the Falcons are too predictable, they’ll pay for it.
Buccaneers at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Falcons and Buccaneers usually play close games when they get together as Atlanta is listed as a favorite for the first time this season, while Tampa Bay is receiving points for the first time in three games. Atlanta can move to 2-0 in the division with a victory after knocking off New Orleans in overtime back in Week 1 as a three-point home underdog, but the Falcons need to bounce back after falling behind early in last week’s loss at Cincinnati.
The defense has been lit up through two weeks, as the Falcons gave up 472 yards in a 24-10 defeat to the Bengals as five-point ‘dogs, one game after allowing 472 yards in a 33-30 triumph over New Orleans. Atlanta’s lone touchdown at Cincinnati came in the fourth quarter trailing, 24-3, while Matt Ryan tossed three interceptions in the defeat. The Falcons dropped to 3-6 ATS since the start of last season as a road underdog, while winning just once in this span with an overtime victory over the Bills in Toronto.
Tampa Bay’s offense has put up just 31 points in two home losses to Carolina and St. Louis. The Bucs did limit these two teams to a combined 39 points, but they did face backup quarterbacks Derek Anderson and rookie Austin Davis. In last week’s 19-17 home setback to the Rams, Tampa Bay limited St. Louis to just one touchdown and four field goals, but the final field goal by Greg Zuerlein with 38 second left dropped Tampa Bay to 0-2. The Bucs cashed the ‘under’ of 37½, but failed to cover as four-point favorites.
Atlanta has won seven of the past 10 meetings with Tampa Bay, but three of those games came in Week 17 of relatively meaningless action. Last season, the Falcons managed a cover as six-point home favorites in a 31-23 victory, even though Atlanta rushed 18 times for only 18 yards. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach of the Falcons in 2008, Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS record at home against Tampa Bay.
In the second meeting in 2013, the Bucs blew out the Falcons, 41-28 as two-point home favorites. Bobby Rainey ran all over the Atlanta defense for 163 yards and two touchdowns, filling in for the injured Doug Martin. The Falcons couldn’t slow down Vincent Jackson, who hauled in 165 yards receiving, as the Tampa Bay receiver picked up 138 yards and two scores in the first meeting at the Georgia Dome.
Now the Falcons are back in the favorite role, this team is just 6-8 ATS the last two seasons when laying points at the Georgia Dome. In this span, Atlanta owns a 5-2 ATS record at home against division foes, but the last three covers all came in the underdog role. Tampa Bay dropped seven of eight games away from Raymond James Stadium last season, while covering just twice, which includes as a 16½-point underdog at Seattle in a three-point setback.
In Lovie Smith’s final two seasons in Chicago (2011-12), the head coach put together a 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record as a road underdog. Smith is in this role for the first time this season, as the Buccaneers have dropped nine straight September games since 2012, while covering just three times in this span.
The Bucs hope to get Martin back this week to strengthen the running back position after he missed last week’s loss with a knee injury. Rainey took care of business against the Rams with 144 yards rushing in Martin’s place and has already proven he can rip through the Falcons’ defense with his home performance last season. Roddy White didn’t practice on Tuesday for the Falcons after suffering a hamstring injury at Cincinnati, but the Falcons’ standout receiver is listed as probable for Thursday.
The Falcons are listed as 6½-point home favorites, as that number could be bumped up to seven by Thursday night. The total is set between 44½ and 45 depending on where you shop as that number has stayed pretty constant the whole week. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Buccaneers at Falcons
By Covers.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 44.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the season with a pair of narrow home losses and now face the prospect of playing the next three on the road, beginning with Thursday night's matchup against the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers are trying to avoid a repeat of last season's disastrous campaign, when they opened with eight straight setbacks. "It's trying to take a deep breath, see the big picture," quarterback Josh McCown said. "We want to win right now."
Tampa Bay's injury-riddled defense will have to find a way to contain Matt Ryan and Atlanta's potent offense, which rolled up 37 points in a season-opening win versus New Orleans before coming back to earth in last week's 24-10 loss at Cincinnati. "When you turn the ball over three times, you're not going to win," Ryan said. "I have to be better." The Falcons, who went 4-12 last season and wound up tied with the Buccaneers for last place in the division, have split the past six meetings against Tampa Bay.
LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 5.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -7, before settling back down at -6. The total has held steady at 44.5 points.
INJURY REPORT: Tampa Bay - RB Doug Martin (questionable Thursday, knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkis (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE Michael Johnson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (out Thursday, hand). Atlanta - WR Roddy White (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OT Jake Matthews (questionable Thursday, ankle).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+4.25) - Atlanta (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons (-8.75)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Falcons as 5.5-point favorites last week in our advanced lines, and they immediately went to -6 as we took a sharp bet on the Falcons at -5.5. With money still pouring in on Atlanta, we had to go to -7 (-105) on Monday. We have been bouncing between -6 and -6.5 all week while adjusting the juice as we go before finally settling on -6.5. Since then we have been getting good two way action but we still need the Bucs to cover as Atlanta is dominating the action with 81 percent on spread bets and 76 on the moneyline. The Over 45-point total is seeing 78 percent up to this point." - Michael Stewart, Carbonsports.ag.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Both of these division rivals enter this contest off disappointing efforts with each of the coach Smith’s looking to right the ship. The Falcons have been money in the bank at home in games off a pair of losses under Mike Smith, going 9-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith needs this game like blood, hoping to avoid a 0-3 start. Lovie’s 7-1 against the spread career mark in division games off two losses-exact is a strong counter." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Tampa Bay has been decimated by injuries and is expected to be without two more starters on defense after Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (broken hand) and middle linebacker Mason Foster (dislocated shoulder) were hurt last week. Starting running back Doug Martin returned to practice Tuesday after missing Sunday's game with a knee injury, but backup Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards in his absence. The passing game ranks 31st in the league and has yet to click under McCown, who has three interceptions versus two TDs and is averaging 181 yards per contest. The Buccaneers will be hard-pressed to slow down Ryan and company after facing a pair of lightweight passing attacks in the first two weeks.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Ryan tossed three scoring passes and set a franchise record with 448 yards passing in a come-from-behind win over New Orleans, but he was picked off three times and failed go get the ball in the end zone until the fourth quarter at Cincinnati. Julio Jones appears fully recovered from the foot injury that cut short his 2013 season, snatching 14 receptions for 204 yards and a TD, but fellow wideout Roddy White missed practice on Tuesday due to a hamstring injury to put his availability in doubt. While Steven Jackson has rushed for only 98 yards in the first two contests, a more pressing concern is a defense that ranks dead last in the league - allowing an average total of 472 yards.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday night games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games versus a team with a losing road record.
COVERS CONSENSUS: A big 69 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons at -6 in this division showdown.
Bucs vs. Falcons Betting Preview and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com
In a series dominated lately by home favorites, the Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) look to continue the trend Thursday in an NFC South clash against the lowly Buccaneers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) at the Georgia Dome (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six encounters. Each team won and covered at home last season.
Atlanta is coming off a 24-10 loss at Cincinnati, while Tampa Bay somehow lost at home to a Rams squad led by third-string quarterback Austin Davis.
The Line: Falcons -6.5, Total: 45
Line movement: This line opened Atlanta -5.5 and was bet up to -6 at the Las Vegas SuperBook on Sunday and -6.5 on Monday. While the SuperBook returned to -6, most shops were dealing -6.5 the day before the game. Falcons backers, however, could find -6. Totals are between 44.5 and 45.5. For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in the previous game.
The UNDER is 6-2 in the Bucs’ last eight games overall and 6-0 in Tampa Bay’s last six September games.
Smith under fire: New Bucs coach Lovie Smith is taking heat for his way-too-conservative approach. On 3rd-and-7 from the Rams’ nine at the end of the third quarter, the Bucs called a running play that gained three yards, forcing them to try a field goal. It was blocked, and St. Louis went on to win 19-17. Even quarterback Josh McCown admitted he was surprised by the play call.
Different in the Dome: The Falcons’ passing attack clicks in the controlled environment of the Georgia Dome. And quarterback Matt Ryan has owned the Bucs in Atlanta. He’s 5-1 against Tampa in the Georgia Dome, with seven touchdowns, no interceptions and two sacks in the last four home meetings.
McCown regressing: Perhaps quarterback guru Marc Trestman was the biggest reason for McCown’s 2013 performance with the Bears (13 TDs, 1 INT). McCown is struggling in Tampa, averaging 181 passing yards with two TDs and three INTs.
Injuries that matter: Falcons offensive tackle Jake Matthews will play after missing the Week 2 loss with a knee injury. Wide receiver Roddy White (hamstring) did not practice Monday or Tuesday but also is expected to play.
Bucs defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, a two-time Pro Bowler, broke his hand in Week 2 and will be a game-time decision. Middle linebacker Mason Foster dislocated his shoulder against the Rams and will be replaced by Dane Fletcher. Running back Doug Martin (knee) wasn’t really missed Week 2, as Bobby Rainey gained 144 yards on 22 carries and caught three passes for 30 yards. Martin should be ready to play Thursday in a committee with Rainey. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ankle) missed practice again Tuesday. The Bucs need all the offensive weapons they can get.
The Linemakers' lean: Atlanta is just a different team at home, compiling records of 30-13 SU and 23-18 ATS under coach Mike Smith. The Falcons have dominated Tampa in the Georgia Dome, and now get a banged-up Bucs team on a short week. We'll lay the points here and also look to use Atlanta is some teasers.