NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
LA RAMS (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 2) - 9/21/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-177 ATS (-68.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-177 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Los Angeles is 4-13-1 SU in its last 18 games ,when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of San Francisco's last 24 games at home
LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
StatFox Super Situations
LA RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO
Play On - Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games 34-11 over the last 10 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
NFL Week 3
Rams (1-1) @ 49ers (0-2) — SF didn’t score a TD (0 TD, 4 FGA on 23 drives) in first two games. Niners are 9-16 vs spread in last 25 home games; under is 23-10 in their last 33. LA split its first two home games, scoring 66 points, but defense allowed 229 rushing yards in loss to Washington LW. First road game for Rams, who are 2-6 in last eight games vs 49ers- they’re 1-7-1 in last nine visits to Bay Area. LA is 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 road openers (2-0 when favored). Last four years, Rams are 10-15-1 vs spread on road- since 2011, they’re 1-4 as a road favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in LA’s road games the last three years. Rams’ OC LaFleur, 49ers’ DC Saleh were roommates as grad assistants at Central Michigan; LaFleur worked for coach Shanahan before lot of familiarity.
Armadillosports.com
Winless 49ers host Rams
By: StatFox.com
The Rams will be hoping to get right back over the .500 mark with a Thursday night victory over the 49ers.
Los Angeles is coming off of a rough loss to Washington last week, as the Rams battled back from 13-0 and then 20-10 to eventually tie the game at 20-20. They then let the Redskins march right down the field for a game-winning touchdown drive with just about a minute and a half left in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles must now regroup and find a way to get ready for this matchup with San Francisco. The 49ers have not yet won a game this season, but they were very competitive in a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle. San Francisco is not as horrible as people thought before the year started and will definitely be eager to face Los Angeles here. The 49ers have also dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons, as they are 3-1 both SU and ATS against the Rams over the past three seasons. That includes a 2-0 record both SU and ATS when playing Los Angeles at Levi’s Stadium. One trend that stands out when looking at this one is the fact that teams that have scored nine points or fewer in two straight games (San Francisco) are 34-11 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Also favoring the 49ers is the fact that the Rams are 3-11 ATS in games played on grass fields over the past three seasons.
The Rams are coming off of a brutal defeat at the hands of the Redskins, but they have to be feeling confident in their chances of winning on Thursday. They’re facing a very beatable 49ers team and the short week is going to be rough for San Francisco, which lost a very physical game against Seattle in Week 2. QB Jared Goff (530 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) will, however, need to make some big throws on Thursday. Goff has completed 66.7% of his passes through two games this year, and he has definitely shown some improved awareness thus far. He did, however, stare down WR Cooper Kupp (7 rec, 109 yards, 1 TD) on the final drive of the game against Washington last week. That allowed the Redskins to pick him off to end things once and for all. Goff can’t make mistakes like that moving forward, and the Rams also need him to find a way to score in the red zone. They had a few chances to take the lead against Washington, but they had to settle for field goals far too often. RB Todd Gurley (128 yards, 2 TD) looked great against the Redskins, though. He rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, and he also had three catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. He appears locked in and ready for a bounceback season this year, so look for him to make some plays against San Francisco.
The 49ers were right there against the Seahawks in Week 2, but they just did not make enough plays to ultimately pull off what would have been a shocking upset. They will now look to win their first game of the season against the Rams on Thursday, but they won’t do that unless QB Brian Hoyer (292 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) raises his game. Hoyer looked ready for a relatively big year after the third preseason game against the Vikings, but that has not translated to regular season success. Perhaps he’ll be a bit better against the Rams defense, which is nowhere near as good as Seattle’s. One thing he’d be wise to do is target WR Pierre Garcon (9 rec, 107 yards) early and often. If Garcon starts off the game with a couple of catches then the Rams might send some extra help his way. Once that happens, that would free up track star WR Marquise Goodwin (6 rec, 47 yards) to beat his man deep. The 49ers must also continue to let RB Carlos Hyde (169 yards) make plays. Hyde was incredible against Seattle, rushing for 124 yards on 15 carries. That’s one of the best defenses in football, so it just might be a big year for the former Ohio State stud. Defensively, the 49ers would be wise to get some pressure on Goff here. He is still a bit slow to make decisions, so they can definitely give themselves an edge by getting to him.
TNF - Rams at 49ers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
L.A. Rams (-2.5, 39.5) at San Francisco
Despite being underdogs in both of last season's meetings, the 49ers managed to prevent the newly relocated Rams from picking up a win against them. Considering San Francisco won only two games last season, that doesn't say much for L.A.'s initial showing against its new in-state divisional rival.
The Niners still haven't beaten any team other than the Rams since Dec. 6, 2015, going 0-19 in that span while sporting a perfect 3-0 mark against the team that formerly resided in St. Louis. Carlos Hyde has three touchdowns in his last two games against them, which has to be music to first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan's ears since his team has yet to reach the end zone in losses to Carolina and Seattle.
L.A. may not be quite as talented on defense as those two recent Super Bowl teams, but does bring the game's most feared interior lineman Aaron Donald to the table in what will be his second game back following a training camp holdout that didn't end in time for him to participate in Week 1.
Despite his return last week, the Rams have allowed 295 yards to opposing running backs this season, which is worst in the league thus far in the early going. The 49ers will look to take advantage by feeding Hyde and utilizing accurate passes from Brian Hoyer to the likes of Pierre Garcon and rookie Trent Taylor while occasionally taking their deep shots to track star Marquise Goodwin. Thus far, the attack has produced four field goals, but Shanahan does have a strong track record in generating offense and has been working with new pieces nowhere near as efficient as what he worked with in Atlanta.
Sean McVay, in his first season with the Rams, has tasted immediate success. In this battle of the NFL's youngest head coaches, the 31-year-old McVay has a chance to get over on his 37-year-old friend Shanahan, who hired him to coach tight ends when he was the offensive coordinator in Washington earlier this decade. To do so, he must continue getting production from second-year QB Jared Goff, who currently ranks in the top 10 in the league in passing yards. It's too early to make a mountain out of his progression, but there's no question he's improved and will look to take a step forward on a national stage.
These teams don't have another primetime game scheduled for the rest of the season. Judging by the reaction to the prospect of having to watch this following last week's hideous Texans-Bengals game, that news will be well-received. Still, there will be reasons to watch. Beyond monitoring two teams counting on new leadership to produce improvement after what has been a dismal stretch for both, talented players like Donald, Hyde, Todd Gurley and young defensive players Trumaine Johnson, DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas get a chance to strut their stuff.
Gurley jumped over a 'Skins defender on his way to a touchdown last week and has been impressive thus far, both running it and serving as an option for Goff out of the backfield. He'll be worth tuning in for, but be sure to adjust your screen to shield your eyes from looking directly at the bright yellow "Color Rush" uniforms L.A. will wear. The 49ers will be draped in black. Here are more angles and nuggets to be aware of.
Los Angeles Rams
Season win total: 6 (Over +140, Under -160)
Odds to win NFC West:5/1 to 8/1
Odds to win NFC: 40/1 to 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 80/1
San Francisco 49ers
Season win total: 5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC West: 60/1 to 80/1
Odds to win NFC: 250/1 to 250/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 500/1 to 500/1
LINE MOVEMENT
These teams remain the third and worst-ranked teams in the division in the latest WestgateLV odds update for the NFC West, but there's still a wide margin of expectation between the two.
The Rams were impressive enough in Week 1 in destroying the Colts to come way down to 5/1 to win the division (25/1 opening), but went back slightly the other direction after their comeback bid against Washington. The 49ers are now 80/1 after opening 40/1 to come out of the NFC West and have the worst odds of anyone in the NFC to win its conference or a championship. L.A.'s numbers didn't change on those due to the loss and are still slightly better than where they opened (50/1, 100/1).
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Rams were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announce and opened the week there too. It's barely budged and remains available there at most shops as of late Wednesday afternoon. The total opened at 40.5 or 41 and hasn't moved much, although it's now most widely available at 39.5.
Los Angeles opened as a -135 money line favorite, fluctuated slightly and is now closer to -140 (5/7) as kickoff approaches.
ODDSMAKER'S TAKE
Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu had a compelling opinion on Thursday night's total.
"We maybe should have opened lower than the key number, but we’re expecting to see over money by the squares at some point. The public usually doesn’t do much perception into totals, they just want to see points scored. But this number will probably continue to drop with smart money behind it."
INJURY CONCERNS
Trumaine Johnson, L.A.'s top corner and a budding star who won NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for Week 1, is expected to play after cramping up late in Sunday's loss to Washington. Corner Troy Hill is coming off suspension, so the Rams will have better depth in their secondary even if corner Kayvon Webster can't participate due to a shoulder injury.
Tight end Gerald Everett, who has four catches on as many targets this season, is nursing a thigh issue and joins Webster and backup RB Malcolm Brown (hamstring) as questionable. There's concern Donald won't be sharp since he was a little rusty on Sunday and didn't participate in camp, so we'll see whether he's on a pitch count again due to the short week.
Another of San Francisco's young defensive gems, late first-round pick Ruben Foster out of Alabama, looked great before being sidelined by an ankle injury that has him ruled out for this one. Top safety Eric Reid (knee) will also miss the contest, which makes the availability of Jimmie Ward (hamstring) and Jaquiski Tartt (neck) important. Both are questionable, joining fellow 49ers Eli Harold (foot) and George Kittle (hip) in that status.
RECENT MEETINGS (San Francisco 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; UNDER 5-3)
12/24/16 San Francisco 22-21 vs. L.A. Rams (SF +5.5, 39.5)
9/12/16 San Francisco 28-0 at L.A. Rams (SF +2.5, 43.5)
1/3/16 San Francisco 19-16 OT at St. Louis (SF +3, 39)
11/1/15 St. Louis 27-6 vs. San Francisco (STL -7.5, 40.5)
11/2/14 St. Louis 13-10 vs. San Francisco (STL +10.5, 44)
10/13/14 San Francisco 31-17 at St. Louis (SF -3, 44)
12/1/13 San Francisco 23-13 vs. St. Louis(SF -7.5, 41)
9/26/13 San Francisco 35-11 at St. Louis (SF -3.5, 43)
PROPS
Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on the longest field goal made and like the value on backing no scoring in the first half's final two minutes.
Team to reach 10 points first: (Rams -130, 49ers +110)
Team to reach 10 points first: (Rams -140, 49ers +120)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -130, Under +110)
Longest FG made: (46, Over -125/Under +105)
Total sacks by both ts combined: (4.5 Over -120, Under +100)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -200, No +170)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +110, No -130)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes -110, No -110)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -135, No +125)
RAMS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
L.A. is in an opposing stadium for the first time in 2017 and were only in this spot twice last season. The first, last year's 28-0 season-opening debacle, put Jeff Fisher's tenure in jeopardy immediately since his team was slightly favored. The most recent occasion saw the Rams cover, beating the Jets 9-6 as a 1.5-point chalk. Hopefully this one isn't that low-scoring.
49ERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG
This is a role San Francisco has grown quite accustomed to at Levi's Stadium, opening the season with a 23-3 loss to the Panthers. They went 1-5 staright up, beating the Rams, but did cover one other time, losing just 25-23 in finale against Seattle.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 unsurprisingly sees both teams in road underdog roles. The Rams as an 8.5-point 'dog against the Cowboys in Arlington. The 49ers are a 7-point underdog at Arizona.
Thursday's NFL Best Bet
VegasInsider.com
L.A. Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Odds: L.A. Rams (-2.5) vs. San Francisco (+2.5); Total 39.5
Week 3 begins with a NFC West showdown that too many NFL fans around the country who aren't fans of the Rams or 49ers can't be thrilled about. L.A. and San Francisco have been two of the worst teams in the league the past few years, and given the reputation TNF games have gained for being bad, sloppy games as guys play on a short week, putting these two organizations in primetime on TNF could be setting them up to fail.
Yet, someone's got to win this game and while interest from the general fan may be low, NFL bettors everywhere will be looking to get some piece of action down regardless. So far this year we've seen the road team go 2-0 SU and ATS on Thursday nights, and both times they were significant underdogs. This game sees the home side from San Francisco catching points, so will L.A. keep the trend of road teams winning alive, or will San Francisco hold fort for the underdogs?
Right off the bat there will be totals bettors who notice that this is going to be the second straight week of a sub-40 total for TNF. Last week's Houston/Cincinnati game never came close to threatening their 38 mark, and with the San Francisco 49ers one of two teams (along with those Cincinnati Bengals) yet to score a touchdown in 2017, it's no surprise to see much of the early action on this total come in on the low side.
San Francisco won't be held of the endzone forever though with new HC Kyle Shanahan at the helm, and facing a Rams team that is by no means a powerhouse on defense could be just what San Francisco's offense needs to get going.
But with road teams 2-0 SUATS on TNF this year, I'm focusing on the side for this game as there is a bit more value (and less guesswork). Trusting both teams to put up around 20+ points each is going to be tough, considering the 49ers offense hasn't scored a TD yet, and their defense has looked quite good in holding offenses from Carolina and Seattle in check the first two weeks.
It's that 49ers defense who I believe can have some significant success against this Rams team who've done quite well offensively through two weeks. Putting up 40+ on Indy in Week 1 was impressive, as was the 20 they scored last week vs. Washington, but both of those games were at home. This is L.A.'s first venture out on the road this year and this San Francisco defense didn't exactly treat this Rams offense kindly in two meetings a year ago.
The 49ers won 28-0 in Week 1 at home with Case Keenum starting for L.A., and the rematch on Christmas Eve in L.A. finished with a 22-21 win by San Francisco when Goff was under center for the Rams.
In the first meeting this 49ers team completely shut down RB Todd Gurley (47 rush yards on 17 attempts) and the second game saw Goff do next to nothing as he went 11-for-24 for 90 yards with 1 TD (3-yard pass) and 2 INT's. Gurley was held to just 67 yards on the ground in 23 attempts that game, and it it weren't for two San Francisco turnovers that directly lead to Rams TD's, L.A. would have been lucky to break 10 points.
That same 49ers defense has played well in 2017, and now it's time for their offense to step up. L.A.'s own defensive unit caught a break in Week 1 facing Scott Tolzien for the Colts, but showed more of their true colors in Week 2 when Kirk Cousins and the Redskins hung 27 on them. San Francisco's offense isn't as good or as explosive as Washington's, but QB Brian Hoyer is a vet in this league and should find much more success against L.A..
After all, part of the reason San Francisco has yet to find the endzone in 2017 is the fact that they faced Carolina and Seattle's defense right out of the gate, and L.A.'s defense is miles behind those two squads in terms of talent and efficiency on that side of the ball.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show nearly 70% of the spread bets and just over 80% of the ML bets coming the Rams way as there is little question they've produced better results through two weeks.
But as an organization (in St Louis and L.A.), the Rams are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS the past 15 years in their first road game of the year, and dating back to last season they are on a 1-8 ATS run overall, including a 1-6 ATS run when coming off a SU loss. Those aren't the kind of numbers I'd want to see when considering joining the masses in backing the Rams.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in their last four divisional games, the underdog is 4-1 ATS the last five times these two teams have met, and the 49ers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games with the Rams. At the moment there aren't many bettors who want to trust the 49ers in this game, but I believe they snap that TNF trend of road teams winning outright and give HC Kyle Shanahan is first NFL SU victory as an NFL head coach.
Best Bet: San Francisco +2
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Rams at 49ers
Covers.com
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2, 39.5)
A pair of rookie head coaches will square off for the first time when the San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night in a matchup of longtime NFC West rivals. San Francisco has yet to find the end zone through its first two games, but has won three in a row in the series, including a season sweep against the Rams in 2016.
Although the 49ers acquitted themselves well in a three-point loss at Seattle last week, they have been limited to four field goals under coach Kyle Shanahan, marking the first time in franchise history they haven't scored a touchdown in the opening two games. "I don't think there are any moral victories in the NFL, especially with the way I played," San Francisco quarterback Brian Hoyer said in the wake of the 12-9 defeat to the Seahawks. The Rams were denied a possible 2-0 start under coach Sean McVay after surrendering a late touchdown in a 27-20 setback to the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Los Angeles had the second-worst passing game in the league last season -- behind only San Francisco -- and averaged an NFL-low 14.0 points, but it has amassed 86 points during its 1-1 start.
POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+6.5) - 49ers (+7) + home field (-3) = 49ers -2.5
LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites but by Wednesday morning that number was down to 2. The total hit the betting boards at 42 and has been bet all of the way down to 39.5. View the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Rams - RB M. Brown (Questionable, Hamstring), TE G. Everett (Questionable, Thigh), CB K. Webster (Questionable, Shoulder), CB T. Johnson (Questionable, Leg), WR M. Thomas (Out, Suspension), TE T. Hemingway (I-R, Shin), RB L. Dunbar (Out, Knee), WR B. Marquez (I-R, Knee), DT D. Easley (I-R, Knee).
49ers - TE G. Kittle (Questionable, Hip), J. Tartt (Questionable, Neck), DB J. Ward (Questionable, Hamstring), S E. Reid (Out, Knee), LB R. Foster (Out, Ankle), G J. Garnett (I-R, Knee), DB D. Jones (I-R, Knee), RB J. Williams (I-R, Ankle), DL R. Blair III (I-R, Thumb), WR A. Burbridge (I-R, Hamstring), DL C. Jones (I-R, Undisclosed), LB D. Newsom (I-R, Concussion), S C. James (I-R, Knee), LB M. Smith (I-R, Pectoral), LB J. Gilbert (I-R, Knee), WR B. Johnson III (I-R, Hamstring).
ABOUT THE RAMS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The semblance of a passing game has provided a boost for third-year back Todd Gurley, who along with Kansas City rookie Kareem Hunt are the only players to amass more than 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving. Quarterback Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick a year ago, was not as sharp as his performance in the season opener but did rally Los Angeles from a pair of double-digit deficits to forge a fourth-quarter tie on Sunday. Sammy Watkins and rookie Cooper Kupp each have seven catches through the first two games to tie for the team lead. Stud defensive tackle Aaron Donald had a quiet debut after returning from a contract dispute but vowed to be better against San Francisco.
ABOUT THE 49ers (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off a huge game in Seattle, rushing for 124 yards on only 15 carries while ripping off runs of 61 and 27 yards. Given the state of San Francisco's passing game, expect Shanahan to lean heavily on Hyde, who rambled for 88 yards and a pair of touchdowns to carry the 49ers to a 28-0 rout of the Rams in the 2016 season opener. Journeyman Hoyer, playing with his fourth different team in four seasons, needs to rebound from a wretched performance in Seattle when he managed only 99 yards and an interception on 15-of-27 passing. Wideout Pierre Garcon has a team-leading nine receptions, but the 49ers are dealing with myriad injuries in their defensive backfield.
TRENDS:
* Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games overall.
* Under is 21-8 in 49ers last 29 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Rams at a rate of 73 percent and the Under is picking up 66 percent of the totals action.