NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 22nd, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-49 ATS (+33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 174-133 ATS (+27.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Houston at New England
Houston: 47-27 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
New England: 12-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less
StatFox Super Situations
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Play Over - Home teams against the total after 2 or more consecutive wins, in September games 41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) off a win against a division rival, when playing on a Thursday 28-6 since 1997. ( 82.4% | 0.0 units )
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total off an upset win as a home underdog, in the first half of the season 41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
New England down to QB Jacoby Brissett who didn't look sharp coming off the bench in Sunday's 31-24 win over Dolphins and likely no Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are currently +2.5 point home underdogs at Sports Interaction for this Thursday night affair in Foxboro. Tough spot, Patriots have their work cut out with a third-stringer taking snaps in his first start and facing a very good Texans defense led by J.J. Watt.
Looks to be an easy pick. However, before dropping down your hard-earned monet a few betting nuggets to ponder. Texans' have not been able to solve Patriots (1-5, 2-4 ATS), enter 3-6-1 ATS on the road after back-2-back SU/ATS wins, 1-4 ATS after playing Chiefs, 1-6 ATS under Thursday night light's. On the other side, New England backers can take comfort in the fact Patriots feed off its frienzied crowd winning 29 of their last 33 in front of the home audience (20-11-2 ATS). Additionally, Patriots are always dangerous dogs. The Pats have been underdogs sixty-one times in regular season during the Bellichik era treating backers with a profitable 41-19-1 record against the betting line, including a sparkling 10-3 ATS on home field.
NFL Week 3
Texans (2-0) @ Patriots (2-0) – Rookie QB Brissett makes first NFL start here; Garropolo will be a backup- they didn’t sign another QB. Tough spot for Texans; long travel with short week in their road opener. Houston won its first two games at home, not allowing a TD in 2nd half of either game. Patriots scored TD on first drive of all four halves so far, winning first two games 23-21/31-24. New England won last four series games, three by 13+; they won 27-6 (-5) in Houston LY, outgaining Texans 313-189. Houston is 0-3 in Foxboro, losing all three by 13+. Houston coach O’Brien is a former Patriot QB coach. Brissett was 15-11 as a starter at NC State last two years. Texans won four of last five road openers. Over last 8+ years, Patriots are 3-0 as a home underdog. Houston is 4-0 as a road favorite under O’Brien.
Armadillosports.com
Texans, Patriots hook up
By Sportsbook.ag
Houston Texans (2-0 SU; 2-0 ATS) vs. New England (2-0 SU; 2-0 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Lines: Houston (-1) vs. New England (+1); Total set at 41
Week 3 of the NFL season opens up with a very intriguing AFC matchup between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. Both teams are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS so far this year so it will be interesting to see who takes their first defeat on both fronts. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that the Patriots will be forfced to go with 3rd string QB rookie Jacoby Brissett after he came in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week.
Throwing a guy into the fire like this on a short week is something no NFL team wants to do, but the Patriots have no choice right now. New England will hope Brissett can do his best to take care of the ball against a Houston defense that has yet to allow more than 14 points this season.
Houston made a big off-season splash when they opened up the bank account to sign QB Brock Osweiler, and so far that move has paid off with two victories. Make no mistake about it, Houston is still built around the dominant defense they've got, but Osweiler can give them more explosive downfield plays then they've had in years and he'll be looking to do the same on Thursday night.
It's not like the Texans QB hasn't faced a Bill Belichick-led defense before, as he was the one who orchestrated Denver's come from behind win against the Patriots last year (30-24). That experience should go a long way in the level of success the Texans have this week and that's part of the reason why we've seen the bulk of the early action come in on the visitors here.
The other reason for that influx of money on the Houston side is the aforementioned first start for Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett. He did a good job in doing what he was asked in relief last week, going 6-for-9 through the air for 92 yards and not turning the ball over (although he did fumble once). Facing the Dolphins front four and their pass rush turns out to be a nice “warmup” for what Brissett will see form Houston, but he'll still be in tough. With at least a few days of full game-planning for Brissett as the starter, we should expect to see a bit more from him, especially being willing to spread the field a bit. He averaged 10.2 yards per completion last week and it's not like New England doesn't have plenty of solid weapons around him.
Yet, even with the potential for Brissett to perform well, this is a very tough game to handicap. The initial reaction for many will be to take Houston given New England's QB situation, but I'm not so sure everyone should be piling on Houston's bandwagon after a solid 2-0 start. The Pats will arguably the best team they've faced so far this year and they still catch a huge break by not having to deal with Brady, Garoppolo, and potentially Gronkowski. At the same time though, New England proved in Week 1 that you can't count them out no matter who trots out on the field for them and they've always been one of the best home teams in the NFL.
I do believe we could see a few more points than most will expect here as that total of 41 could be eclipsed, but all in all there are much better betting opportunities on the board in Week 3. Sometimes it's best to simply stay away from a game with so much uncertainty surrounding it like this one has with Brissett and the Pats, but gun to my head, that play of "Over" 41 sounds best here.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Texans at Patriots
By Covers.com
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Pick, 40.5)
Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien likely isn't going to shed a tear for the plight of former boss Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, who are expected to start third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett in Thursday's game at Foxborough, Mass. After enduring the round and round of their own quarterback carousel last year, the Texans have welcomed the stability afforded by pricey offseason acquisition Brock Osweiler while the Patriots have shuffled signal callers in the wake of Tom Brady's suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo's shoulder injury.
"When Jacoby went in there (Sunday), I thought he handled the game really well, good poise," O'Brien said of Brissett, who completed 6-of-9 passes for 92 yards in Sunday's 31-24 victory over Miami. "We will continue to study. We will work hard, just like they are working hard, and try to do the best we can to put together a good game plan." Defense has been the name of the game for Houston, which has yielded just 26 points (NFL third-best), 274.5 yards allowed (third-best) and 178.5 passing yards (fourth-best). Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt collected 1.5 sacks in a 19-12 triumph over Kansas City on Sunday and linebacker Whitney Mercilus has two this season and 17 in his last 14 games overall.
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened this AFC matchup as 2.5-point home pups and despite the uncertainty at quarterback, bettors have moved this game back to a Pick'em. The total opened at 40.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Texans (-1) - Patritos (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -2.5
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Foxborough. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60's for the Thursday nighter.
INJURY REPORT:
Texans - P S. Lechler (probable Thursday, back), T D. Newton (questionable Thursday, knee), G J. Allen (questionable Thursday, calf), WR B. Miller (doutbful Thursday, hamstring), LB B. Cushing (out Thursday, knee).
Patriots - LB J. Freeny (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DL T. Flowers (questionable Thursday, shoulder), TE R. Gronkowski (questionable Thursday, hamstring), G J. Cooper (questionable Thursday, foot), LB D. Hightower (questionable Thursday, knee), QB J. Garappolo (questionable Thursday, shoulder), TE A. Darby (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), CB E. Rowe (doubtful Thursday, ankle).
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Texans enter off a huge win, a 19-12 victory over Kansas City last Sunday. In the process they avenged a humiliating 30-0 home playoff loss to the Chiefs last season. They must now travel to Foxborough on short rest to take on a team that is 27-2 SU in their last 29 home games and they are favored to so so. No thanks. Pats or pass." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Signed to a four-year, $72 million contract in the offseason, Osweiler has overcome a first-quarter interception in both games this season to build his rapport with Pro Bowl selection DeAndre Hopkins and first-round rookie Will Fuller. While Hopkins leads the team with 12 receptions and two touchdowns, Fuller (club-best 211 receiving yards) has stepped up in a hurry by becoming the third wideout to start his NFL career with two straight 100-yard receiving games. Lamar Miller gives O'Brien a constant presence in the backfield, as the offseason acquisition's 53 carries are second only to Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams (58) for most in the league.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut, fellow tight end Martellus Bennett has made his mark since being acquired from Chicago in March. The nine-year veteran has played on all but two offensive snaps over the first two games and reeled in a 20-yard touchdown on Sunday. Bruising running back LeGarrette Blount has rolled up 193 yards and two touchdowns this season, but exited a 27-6 victory over Houston on Dec. 13 last season with a hip ailment that landed him on injured reserve.
TRENDS:
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans' last four Thursday games.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing the team minus the quarterback issues in this AFC matchup, with 55 percent of wagers on the Texans. As for the total, 56 percent of bettors are taking the Over in this spot.
NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Houston at New England: Although Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) hasn’t officially been ruled out for this one, it’s likely that rookie Jacoby Brissett will make his first career start as he tries to move the Patriots out to 3-0 in the penultimate game before Tom Brady returns from suspension. Former New England offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien brings his Texans in for this battle unbeaten, patiently utilizing the run game to play to his team’s strengths and keep the pressure off Brock Osweiler. New RB Lamar Miller has had 53 carries through Houston’s first two games. The Texans have only beaten the Patriots once in seven career meetings (2010).
TNF - Texans at Patriots
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Houston (-1, 40.5) at New England
Although Bill Belichick still hasn’t ruled out Jimmy Garoppolo, New England’s capable backup quarterback is considered doubtful after limited participation in practice on Wednesday. After leaving Sunday’s win over Miami with a shoulder injury, the Patriots have been non-committal about just how serious Garoppolo’s injury was, keeping alive the possibility that he’d start on Thursday night. Stories about him requiring only a heightened pain threshold got out there and another quarterback wasn’t signed, fueling speculation that Garoppolo, who excelled in wins over the Cardinals and Dolphins in place of the suspended Tom Brady, would gut it out on Thursday night.
The alternative, tipping their hand by picking up a quarterback off the street in the hopes he’d be prepared enough to back up rookie Jacoby Brissett, wasn’t deemed worth it, so WR Julian Edelman, a quarterback at Kent State, is expected to be the No. 2 QB. We’ll see just how serious New England truly thinks Garoppolo’s injury is later this week if they do decide to bring somebody in before Tom Brady returns on Oct. 9, but as far as this Houston game goes, it appears the Pats are ready to ride with their third-round pick.
Brissett came into the Dolphins game with a 24-0 lead and led a single second-half scoring drive as New England survived a furious comeback 31-24. Looking to run out the clock on a substantial lead impacted the play-calling and kept things simple for the rookie, so we’ll see if Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels opens up the playbook. Because this has been a short week, Brissett won’t be as prepared as he would’ve been if this game was played on Sunday, having just gotten to accustomed to increased work in practice with the first team.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski has yet to debut in 2016 but is getting closer to returning. The Texans preparing to face him. Defensively, linebacker Don’t’a Hightower is New England’s biggest question mark and was inactive on Sunday against Miami.
Indeed, the Patriots are vulnerable. Oddsmakers have made the visiting Texans a one-point favorite since they also come into this 2-0 with a much healthier group. Although LB Brian Cushing and tackle Duane Brown haven’t played yet, Houston got J.J. Watt back to start the season and expect him to improve from week-to-week. He’s already been disruptive. Former top pick Jadeveon Clowney is healthy and making plays, while LB John Simon has 11 QB pressures, leading the NFL by making contact six times. The Texans defense has surrendered an average of 13 points in home wins over the Bears and Chiefs.
Houston Texans
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Odds to win AFC South: 3/2 to 4/5
Odds to win AFC: 20/1 to 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 14/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Odds to win AFC East: 4/9 to 1/4
Odds to win AFC: 7/2 to 12/5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 5/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Both of these teams have seen their odds improve as the WestgateLV SuperBook adjusted its conference and Super Bowl futures. The Patriots have impressively won without their top two players, Brady and Gronkowski, while the Texans have put one of the NFL's top defensive units on display. According to Marcus DiNitto's Opening Line Report, New England is getting points in Foxboro for the first time since hosting the Broncos in November 2014. Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the WestgateLV SuperBook, told VI that the number would be New England -4.5 if Garoppolo were healthy. Instead, Houston opened at -2/-2.5 and remains favored. The total has remained about the same, hovering in the 40.5-41 range with Brissett expected to start.
MILLER TIME
Houston running back Lamar Miller had never had more than 22 carries in a game with the Dolphins, but has already carried 53 times (28 in Week 1, 25 last week) since becoming Houston's top option. The Texans rank 24th with 3.3 yards per carry, but are sticking with the ground game as a way to keep pressure of Brock Osweiler, coming in 11th in total rushing yards.
GRONK THE ALL-TIME GREAT
Because we've seen more of him partying on boats or watching on the sidelines of late, it's easy to forget what a huge impact Gronkowski has when he gets out there. He's played in 30 of the last 32 New England regular-season games, making 154 receptions, 23 of them for touchdowns. Gronk has already set an NFL record for most seasons with 10 or more TDs by a tight end (5) and will look to make it three years in a row with double-digits in touchdowns for the second time in his career once he gets going. His presence would be a major boost to Brissett, but we're not likely to find out if he's playing until right before kickoff.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)
12/13/15 New England 27-6 at Houston (NE -5, 46.5)
12/1/13 New England 34-31 at Houston (NE -7, 49)
1/13/13 New England 41-28 vs. Houston (NE -9.5, 50)
12/10/12 New England 42-14 vs. Houston (NE -5.5, 50.5)
1/3/10 Houston 34-27 vs. New England (HOU -7.5, 47)
PROPS
Of the props available below at Sportsbook.ag, I'm most partial to going over on Danny Amendola receptions and Lamar Miller rushing yards. Fading Watt tackles on the premise that the Patriots will look to run plays away from him is a solid move too.
Julian Edelman receptions 6.5: (-120 over/under)
Danny Amendola receptions 3: (-140 over/under EVEN)
LaGarrette Blount rushing yards 83.5: (-115 o/u)
Jacoby Brissett completions 19: (over -130, under EVEN)
J.J. Watt tackles 4.5: (over -105, under -125)
Lamar Miller rushing yards 82.5: (-115 o/u)
DeAndre Hopkins receptions 6.5: (-115 o/u)
DeAndre Hopkins receptions 88.5: (-115 o/u)
Brock Osweiler TD passes: (1.5 -120 o/u)
Will Fuller receptions 4.5: (-165 over, +120 under)
Will Fuller receptions 85.5: (-115 o/u)
Total points: Texans 21.5, Patriots 20 (-115/-120 over, -115/-110 under)
Longest field goal 46 yds: (-115 over, -115 under)
TEXANS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
Houston was only in this situation once last season, winning its road regular-season finale at the Titans 34-6 as 3.5-point favorite. They won and covered all three times they were a road favorite in O'Brien's first season, beating Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee by a combined margin of 87-43. They last lost in this situation (-3) against the Jaguars by a 27-20 count on Dec. 5, 2013.
PATRIOTS AS A HOME DOG
As stated above, New England doesn't have much experience as an underdog in Foxboro, last getting points (+3) when Denver came to town on Nov. 2, 2014. The Patriots won 43-21. Earlier that season, New England was a 2.5-point home dog to Cincinnati and won 43-17. They also closed +2 against the Broncos in Nov. 2013 and won 34-31. New England is 9-2 straight up and 10-1 ATS in this situation over its last 11.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Texans as 6-point home favorites over AFC South rival Tennessee. Due to the uncertainty of New England's QB situation, there has been no line posted for its encounter with Buffalo.