NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 25

NFL Week 4

Giants (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2) — Only once in their last eight visits here have Giants lost by more than a point; teams split last six series games, after Giants had won previous six. Big Blue is 11-7 in last 18 games as a road dog; they swept Skins 24-17/20-6 LY; they ran ball for 193 yards, passed for 226 in win over Houston last week; they forced first three turnovers of season- their TD drives were 83-2-29 yards, which is how upsets happen. Washington scored 75 points (nine TDs on 24 drives, 5.4 ppd in red zone) in Cousins’ two starts; he threw for 427 yards in Philly last week. Redskins are 14-29 on 3rd down in Cousins’ two starts; they're 5-4 in last nine games as a home favorite. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread so far this year.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

New York Giants and Washington Redskins kick-off week four action at FedEx Field Thursday night. The Giants' offense finally kicking in this past week defeated Houston 30-17 as Eli Manning did not turn the ball over while completing 21 of 28 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns. Rashad Jennings logged career highs in both rushing attempts (34), rushing yards (176) with one major. As for Washington, despite a 37-34 setback in Philadelphia there were plenty of positives for the squad in the loss. Kirk Cousins in his first start replacing injured RG III tossed 427 yards for three touchdowns. Redskins' run stop unit held Eagles to 54 rushing yards on the day and reigning rushing champion LeSean McCoy to just 22 yards. A couple of interesting NFL betting trends. Giants have struggled cashing tickets vs a division opponent in September posting a 1-3-1 ATS while Redskins have thrived in the situation going 4-1 ATS last five, 6-2 ATS last eight. Giants have been poor bets last 13 away posting a 4-9 ATS mark and hit the field 2-5-1 ATS L8 on the road as underdogs of 3.5 or less. Redskins enter 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points and have a prefect 4-0 ATS stretch going in week-four. New York won and cover both meetings last year but remain a cash draining 3-5 ATS last eight encounters with Washington.

Skins look to rebound
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Washington -3.5, Total: 45

Kirk Cousins and the Redskins host Eli Manning and the Giants in a big divisional showdown on Thursday night.

New York got its first win of the season on Sunday, as it picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times on the way to a 30-17 home victory. Washington, on the other hand, went to Philadelphia and lost in a 37-34 shootout. The Giants will need to run the ball well in order to defeat a Redskins team that just held LeSean McCoy to 22 yards on 19 carries. Cousins, however, will be the key to the game for Washington. He must limit his mistakes and avoid turning the ball over at all costs against an aggressive New York secondary.

The Giants are 19-7 ATS (73%) in road games after gaining 400+ total yards in their previous game since 1992, and are also 58-37 ATS (61%) off a home win during that span. But the Redskins are 35-20 ATS (64%) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992.

New York has dominated this series with nine SU wins in the past 12 meetings, and each of the past five matchups have gone Under the total.

LBs Jon Beason (toe) and Devon Kennard (hamstring) are listed as questionable for the Giants, while a whole slew of Washington players like LB Akeem Jordan (knee), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring), CB Tracy Porter (hamstring), LB Brian Orakpo (finger) and DE Jason Hatcher (hamstring) are questionable for Thursday night. Redskins' top CB DeAngelo Hall tore his Achilles last week and is out for the remainder of the season.

The Giants finally put together a solid all-around performance last week, and that started with a mistake-free game from QB Eli Manning (674 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT), who was 21-of-28 for 234 yards and two touchdowns. This was Manning’s first game without an interception since Week 11 of last year. He will need to limit his turnovers again against the Redskins’ defense, as controlling the clock and winning the time of possession battle is crucial for New York.

Part of the reason the Giants were able to control the pace in Week 3 was the running of RB Rashad Jennings (286 yards, 2 TD), who rushed 34 times for 176 yards and a touchdown against Houston. New York will feed him early and often against the Redskins despite Washington holding the Eagles to just 54 rushing yards on Sunday.

WR Victor Cruz (12 rec., 191 yards, 1 TD) finally turned in a big performance for his team, catching five passes for 107 yards and a touchdown that snapped a touchdown drought that lasted nearly 365 days. If Thursday’s matchup turns into a shootout, Cruz will need to use his ability to get open very often.

The Giants must be better defensively against Washington than they have been against the rest of their opponents this season. They are allowing 25.7 PPG to start the year and their passing defense has really hurt them, allowing 258.3 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL).

The Redskins led the Eagles 17-7 early in the second quarter, but were trailing 21-20 at halftime and never regained the lead. QB Kirk Cousins (677 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) was excellent under center, throwing for 427 yards with three touchdowns and just one pick.

He was able to make big plays and find ways to get the football into the hands of his top playmakers, WRs Pierre Garcon (22 rec, 227 yards, 1 TD) and DeSean Jackson (14 rec, 198 yards, 1 TD) who combined for 16 receptions, 255 yards and 2 TD. Cousins will need to have a big game against New York, as the Giants’ defense has been solid against the run this season and disappointing against the pass.

Alfred Morris (253 rush yards, 2 TD) carried the ball 23 times for 77 yards against the Eagles. The Redskins will need him to make more out of his touches against a Giants team that will certainly be playing to control the clock on Thursday.

Washington’s defense has been surprisingly good to start the year, allowing only 64.7 yards per game on the ground (3rd in NFL) and 218.0 yards per game through the air (10th in NFL). This unit should have a lot more trouble going forward, as it will now face a much more difficult part of the schedule.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Giants at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

It’s seems like a battle of last-place teams getting together in Washington on Thursday night, but the winner of the Giants/Redskins game is back to 2-2 and right in the NFC East race. The Eagles have rallied for three victories to start 3-0, but have a tough trip to San Francisco on Sunday, while the Cowboys are short home underdogs to the Saints looking for their third straight win. Now, New York and Washington are trying to show its worth in the NFC East at the quarter mark of the season.

The Giants finally broke through the win column in last Sunday’s 30-17 victory over previously unbeaten Houston as one-point home favorites. New York dominated in spite of losing a fumble at the Houston 10-yard line in the first quarter, while botching a field goal attempt early in the second quarter. But, the Giants scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half to take a 14-0 advantage and never look back. New York got its running game going as Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown after racking up just 110 yards in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

The Redskins have been up and down through three weeks of the season, starting with a 14-3 defeat to the Texans as short road underdogs. Washington turned it around in its home opener by routing Jacksonville, 41-10 as five-point favorites, while racking up 449 yards of offense. However, the team lost quarterback Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury as Kirk Cousins stepped up to throw for 250 yards and two touchdown passes.

Cousins remains the starter at quarterback for Washington until Griffin is healthy, as the Redskins scored just one touchdown in 13 drives with the former Baylor star under center. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Cousins put up a career-best 427 yards passing, but the Redskins couldn’t hold onto a 17-7 lead in a 37-34 setback at Lincoln Financial Field. Washington covered as four-point underdogs thanks to a Roy Helu touchdown run with 4:16 left to get within the number, while the ‘over’ of 50½ easily hit.

The Giants have owned this series since 2008, winning nine of the past 12 meetings with the Redskins. Last season, New York swept the two-game set, with both victories coming in the final month. Tom Coughlin’s team picked up a 24-17 triumph as one-point favorites at FedEx Field in Week 13 despite accumulating just 286 yards of offense. Three weeks later, the Giants salvaged the regular season finale in a 20-6 rout of the Redskins at Met Life Stadium as 3½-point favorites. Prior to 2013, Washington covered the previous five meetings, while the Redskins were last listed as a home favorite over New York in 2007, a 24-17 defeat as 3½-point ‘chalk.’

Primetime games have been an ‘over’ bettors’ dream this season, going 8-2 to the ‘over.’ On Thursday night games, the ‘over’ is 2-1, including the Falcons trouncing the Buccaneers last week, 56-14 on a 47 total. All three home favorites have easily covered in Thursday night action as the Seahawks, Ravens, and Falcons have all won by double-digits, while limiting opponents to a combined 36 points.

Since October 2008, the Redskins own a 5-11 ATS record as a home favorite, dating back to the dreaded Jim Zorn era. Making that number a little more relevant to what the roster currently looks like, Washington is 5-3 ATS since the start of 2012 in this role. The last two seasons have been a major difference against division opponents, as the Redskins went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the NFC East in 2012, while going backwards in 2013 with an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.

The Giants were blown out in the season opener at Detroit, but New York has cashed in 12 of its past 20 games in the role of a road underdog since 2011. Last season, the Giants won two of three road games against NFC East foes, while posting a 5-3 SU/ATS record in its previous eight away contests within the division.

Washington is currently listed as a 3½-point favorite at most books, while the total is set between 45½ and 46. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST from FedEx Field and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

Thursday Night Football: Giants at Redskins
Covers.com

New York Giants at Washington (-3.5, 46)

The New York Giants finally got the offense untracked and broke into the victory column but now face a quick turnaround and a matchup with a bitter division rival when they visit the Washington Redskins on Thursday night. New York rebounded from back-to-back losses to Detroit and Arizona with a 30-17 victory over Houston. "This was huge for us, knowing we had to get this game and get this one under our belts with a short week and not wanting to look ahead," Giants wideout Victor Cruz said.

Washington dropped a shootout in a 37-34 defeat at NFC East foe Philadelphia to drop to 1-2 despite ranking second in the league with an average of 444 total yards. Losing Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury hasn't slowed down the Redskins, who saw backup Kirk Cousins throw for a career-high 427 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, prompting speculation of whether the former will reclaim his job when healthy. “Crazy things have happened in NFL,” Washington coach Jay Gruden told the New York Daily News. “I’m not going to discount anything.”

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Redskins as 3.5-point favorites. The total opened 45 and is up one point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LB Jon Beason (Questionable, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Out indefinitely, hamstring). Redskins - WR DeSean Jackson (Probable, shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Hatcher (Questionable, hamstring), CB DeAngelo Hall (IR, achilles).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph and there is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+1.5) - Redskins (+1.75) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -2.75

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-2, SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New York raised a few eyebrows in the offseason when it handed a four-year, $14 million deal to free agent Rashad Jennings, but the veteran running back sparked the win over Houston by rushing for a career-best 176 yards. Buoyed by the improved running game, Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a mistake-free outing after tossing a pair of interceptions in each of the first two games. Cruz halted a 12-game touchdown drought and had only his second 100-yard performance in the span as the Giants put up 30 points on a Houston defense that had allowed a total of 20 in the first two games. New York's defense also responded by picking off its first three passes of the season.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Washington's defense was hit hard by injuries in the setback to Philadelphia, losing cornerback DeAngelo Hall (Achilles' tendon) and safety Duke Ihenacho (foot) for the season. Linebacker Brian Orapko, among 11 players who were limited in practice Monday, is dealing with a torn ligament in his middle finger but said he plans to play against the Giants wearing a hard cast. Pierre Garcon bounced back from a one-catch game versus Jacksonville with 11 receptions for 138 yards while DeSean Jackson played through an ailing shoulder to also go over 100 yards and match Garcon with a touchdown. Alfred Morris has rushed for 253 yards on the season but is averaged only 3.6 yards per carry the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
* Under is 5-1 in Redskins last six vs. NFC East.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Redskins.

Giants vs. Redskins Betting Preview and Pick
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

Through three games, the Giants and Redskins have reason to believe they are on the right track.

The Giants, for their part, come off their first win of the season. And digging further, we recall the Giants had a fourth-quarter lead against unbeaten Arizona in Week 2.

Like the Giants, the Redskins are 1-2 entering Thursday’s matchup at FedEx Field (8:30 p.m. ET, CBS/NFL Network). And like New York, Washington can point to progress. The Redskins played the Eagles and Texans tough in defeat and handled the struggling Jaguars with ease back in Week 2.

But now that we’re done talking up the Giants and Redskins, let’s get serious. These clubs are tied for last place in the NFC East, and they are two games behind Philadelphia for the division lead. The loser of Thursday’s game will have to deal with one collective headache on Friday morning, for it’s no fun to be 1-3 in New York or Washington.

So who pulls through to get to .500 at the end of September? Is it Washington, favored by a touch over three points? Or is it New York, which is so good at playing possum under Tom Coughlin?

The Line: Redskins -3.5, Total: 46

Line movement: Washington opened -5 at several Vegas books, but bettors jumped on the Giants at that number, and the line has settled at 3.5. That's where the SuperBook rated this game when it posted Week 4 lines about 10 days in advance.

“When we did the look-ahead line last week, we had the Redskins 3.5," Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the SuperBook, told The Linemakers on Sporting News. "We saw some places that were as high as 6 when we were getting our lines together, so we just wanted to stay towards the low end and we went with 5. And as the number kept coming down, we just moved back to what our number was, and I ultimately think 3.5 is about right."

The total has inched up. Multiple books opened at 45, but that key number has disappeared.

For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: The Giants are 11-8-1 against the spread and 14-6 straight-up against Washington under Tom Coughlin. Just six of those 20 Giants-Redskins matchups have gone OVER.

The Giants are 3-1 against the spread in Thursday games in Coughlin’s tenure.

Home teams are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread on Thursday night this season. Home teams were just 7-9-1 ATS on Thursdays in 2013.

Note: Historical point spread trends are cited from the Spreadapedia database.

Washington’s run defense is a major strength: Can the Giants get much going on the ground against their division rivals? Washington is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry through three games and has not surrendered a run of more than 18 yards. The Redskins held Eagles tailback LeSean McCoy to just 22 yards on 19 carries in Week 3.

Spotlight on Manning: Giants quarterback Eli Manning comes off his best start of the season, a 21-of-28 performance in New York’s win over Houston. Most importantly, he didn’t throw any interceptions. However, Manning’s strong performance came on a day where the Giants established the run, with tailback Rashad Jennings racking up 176 yards on 34 carries. If Washington shuts down the run, can Manning save the day?

Washington’s passing game in sharp form: Kirk Cousins has thrived in place of injured Robert Griffin III, throwing for 677 yards and five touchdowns with one just pick in two games. But Griffin was not playing terribly before his ankle injury; after all, he was 31-of-40 passing in the first two games. Overall, Washington has completed 68.6 percent of its passing attempts through three games. Such efficiency can stress defenses. The Giants have to expect Washington to connect the bulk of its passes, and it’s on New York to limit those completions to pedestrian gains.

Injuries that matter: Washington has 17-of-53 players on the injury report, but most listed were limited or full participants leading up to Thursday night. Outside linebacker Brian Orakpo (finger) intends to play with a cast on his hand. Also, wide receiver DeSean Jackson (shoulder) was able to play through injury in Week 3.

Tight end Jordan Reed (hamstring) is unlikely to play against the Giants, but Niles Paul has been a capable replacement.

The Giants are healthier than Washington, but the status of middle linebacker Jon Beason (foot/toe) bears watching.

Weather: Conditions should be favorable by kickoff, with a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures near 60, according to Weather Underground. However, about an inch of rain is forecast for Wednesday, and rain is also expected Thursday morning. Given the occasional poor field quality at FedEx Field, total bettors might want to take a visual look at the playing surface a couple hours before kickoff. ESPN and NFL Network regularly show on-field updates leading up to Thursday night.

Handicapping help: Giants-Redskins matchup analysis | Power Ratings | NYG team page | WAS team page

The Linemakers' lean: Kenny White bet the Giants at 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, but after watching them for three weeks, he’s not so high on them anymore. Tom Coughlin’s effectiveness as coach may be over in New York. The Redskins, on the other hand, have responded to Jay Gruden, and their defense is much-improved, evidenced most recently by shutting down LeSean McCoy last week.

There are also some trends that give us a lean on the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams in Washington have stayed UNDER, and the Giants are an NFL-best 12-5 to the UNDER on the road since 2012.

Redskins -3.5, UNDER 46 are the plays.