NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 28th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
CHICAGO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 182-128 ATS (+41.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games
NFL Week
Bears (1-2) @ Packers (2-1) — Pack trailed all three games at halftime this year; they allowed a defensive TD in last two games. Green Bay won both its home games, by 8-3 points; they’re 12-2 in last 14 meetings; teams split last four games played here. Chicago got its first win last week, beating Steelers in OT; since 2012, Bears are 10-20-1 vs spread coming off a win, 5-12-1 in last 18 NFC North road games— they’re 7-8-1 as a road underdog under Fox, losing 29-7 (+7) at Tampa Bay in only road game this year. Packers are 15-8-2 vs spread in last 25 home games. Under is 12-6 in last 18 games at Lambeau Field. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread in divisional games. Under is 3-0 in Chicago games
Armadillosports.com
Packers host rival Bears
By: StatFox.com
The Packers will be hoping to improve to 3-1 with a Thursday Night Football victory over the rival Bears.
Chicago is coming off of a very impressive victory last week, as the team was able to beat Pittsburgh 23-17 as a seven-point home underdog. The Bears rushed for 220 yards in that game, which ended up really being the difference in that one. They’ll now look to get their offense going against the Packers, but it’s going to be hard for them to be too optimistic about this one. Green Bay has dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings. The Packers beat the Bears 26-10 as seven-point favorites when the two teams met at Lambeau Field last year. They also happen to be coming into this game with some serious confidence after what happened in Week 3. Green Bay was trailing Cincinnati 21-7 in that game, but the team was able to rally back for a 27-24 victory in overtime. The Packers have now failed to cover the spread in two straight games, but that ATS loss last week is not something to read into too much. One trend that favors the Bears when looking at this game is the fact that head coach John Fox is 9-1 ATS in road games against teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game on the season since 1992. The Packers are, however, an impressive 30-13 ATS off a non-conference game under head coach Mike McCarthy.
The Bears are coming off of a surprising upset over the Steelers, but it’s actually hard to lose when your team rushes for 220 yards. RB Jordan Howard (197 yards, 3 TD) had been off to a rough start this season, but he ripped off 138 yards and two touchdowns in that win over Pittsburgh. He also added five receptions for 26 yards. His backfield mate, Tarik Cohen (157 yards), added 78 yards on the ground and also four catches for 24 yards in the receiving game. Look for both of them to be leaned on heavily in this one, as Chicago does not have a chance unless the team finds some success in the running game. As for the passing game, QB Mike Glennon’s (615 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) job is simple: Don’t turn the ball over. Glennon is just a game manager for this Bears team, but the problem is that the talent around him isn’t good enough for the team to win many games. Still, the Bears have been competitive thus far and should get up for this meeting with their rivals.
QB Aaron Rodgers (967 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) was absolutely brilliant in bringing the Packers back from a 21-7 deficit in Week 3. Rodgers threw for 313 yards with three touchdowns and only one pick in that game, and he orchestrated a masterful game-tying drive as well. Rodgers connected with WR Jordy Nelson (13 rec, 131 yards, 3 TD) to tie that one up, and Nelson had six receptions for 52 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Look for him to do more of the same against the Bears, as Rodgers will definitely be looking in his direction often. It’s worth noting that Rodgers has dominated Chicago in his career, as he is 14-4 in 18 games against them. In those contests, Rodgers has thrown for an average of 245.4 yards per game and has a total of 38 touchdowns and only nine picks. He’ll get up for this one as well, as he loves playing primetime games. Another player that should be in for a big game here is RB Ty Montgomery (124 yards, 2 TD). Montgomery has been great in his first full season as a starter, as he has excelled both up the middle as a runner and then out of the backfield as a receiver. When plays break down, Rodgers will do everything he can to spot him on Thursday. Defensively, if the Packers can stop the run then this should be a blowout. Chicago is not capable of picking anybody apart through the air.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Bears at Packers
Covers.com
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The oldest rivalry in the NFL has become one-sided in recent years, something the Chicago Bears hope to change when they pay a visit to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night in a prime-time NFC North matchup. The Packers swept the season series last year en route to winning the division title and have captured six of the last seven matchups.
It will mark the 195th matchup between Chicago and Green Bay -- and the first where both teams are each coming off an overtime victory. Running back Jordan Howard's 19-yard touchdown run provided the exclamation point on the Bears' 23-17 victory over Pittsburgh, helping them avoid an 0-3 start for third straight season. Green Bay was seconds from a second straight defeat before Aaron Rodgers tossed a tying touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime in a 27-24 victory over visiting Cincinnati. The series could not be more evenly matched -- each team has won 93 times to go along with six ties.
POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -9.5
LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as seven-point home favorites and by Wednesday evening many books were adding the hook to 7.5. The total hit the betting boards at 45.5 and has yet to budge. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A black-and-blue division matchup kicks off Thursday night at Lambeau Field in the NFL when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. The Bears haven't won consecutive games since December of 2015, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS following a victory in that span. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Packers know they are 401-13 SU and 36-17 ATS at home in division play behind QB Aaron Rodgers. It appears there is only one way to look here." - Covers Experts' Marc Lawrence.
INJURY REPORT:
Bears - LB Nick Kwiatkoski (Out, Chest), S Deon Bush (Questionable, (Hamstring), S Quintin Demps (Out, Arm), S Chris Prosinski (Questionable, Hamstring), OL Tom Compton (Probable, Hip), OL Hroniss Grasu (Questionable, Hand), OL Josh Sitton (Questionable, Ribs), LB Jerrell Freeman (I-R, Concussion), WR Kevin White (I-R, Shoulder), DB Deiondre' Hall (I-R, Hamstring), RB Ka'Deem Carey (I-R, Wrist), LS Patrick Scales (I-R, Knee), WR Cameron Meredith (I-R, ACL), C Eric Kush (I-R, Hamstring).
Packers - RB Joe Kerridge (Questionable, Calf), DE Mike Daniels (Questionable, Hip), CB Davon House (Doubtful, Quadriceps), WR Randall Cobb (Probable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Probable, Groin), RB Ty Montgomery (Probable, Wrist), T Kyle Murphy (I-R, Foot), LS Brett Goode (I-R, Hamstring), T Bryan Bulaga (Questionable, Ankle), T David Bakhtiari (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nick Perry (Questionable, Hand), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Concussion), T Jason Spriggs (I-R, Hamstring), LB Vince Biegel (Out, Foot), DT Montravius Adams (I-R, Foot), T Don Barclay (I-R, Ankle), CB Demetri Goodson (PUP, ACL), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Foot), S Marwin Evans (Questionable, Lower Body), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), CB Herb Waters (I-R, Shoulder).
ABOUT THE BEARS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Chicago will try to run the ball for two reasons -- to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands and alleviate the pressure on quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for only 101 yards and a TD on 15-of-22 passing. The Bears rushed for 220 yards against the Steelers as Howard, despite dealing with an ailing shoulder, piled up 138 and two scores while electrifying rookie Tarik Cohen had 78 yards on 12 carries. With the wide receiver corps ravaged by injury, Howard and Cohen also led the team with five and four catches, respectively. Safety Quintin Demps broke his arm in Sunday's game, a blow for a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games, although his passer rating is below 100 for only the third time in 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games, but he carved up the Bears for a career-best 162 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in December. The Packers are eighth in the league, allowing 296.7 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
* Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Packers at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is picking up 64 percent of the totals action.
TNF - Bears at Packers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Chicago at Green Bay (-7, 45.5)
September's final game opens Week 4 and brings us the latest chapter of the NFL's oldest rivalry. Given the short week and Sunday's results, we could get a more interesting game than you would anticipate given the preseason expectations for these two.
The Packers remain a Super Bowl favorite, tied atop the NFC North with Detroit and Minnesota. The Bears come off their first victory of a season only the delusional would refer to as anything other than one in which they're stuck rebuilding. Mike Glennon is keeping the seat warm at QB before Mitch Trubisky is ready to take over, the team's top two receiving threats have already been lost for the season and every other team in the division is legitimately deeper and more talented.
On Sunday, the Bears served notice that you better at least show up if you want to push them around. Pittsburgh misfired on a deep ball on its first offensive snap when Ben Roethlisberger overthrew an open Martavis Bryant and then caught shot after shot from an underdog that got after it in all phases. Even after falling behind when the Steelers rallied to take the lead, Chicago punched back, riding a backfield rookie running back Tarik Cohen has dubbed "Thunder & Lightning" in reference to he and the powerfully built Jordan Howard. It's not a terribly creative moniker, but does fit given their explosiveness.
Cohen and Howard combined for 216 rushing yards and added another 50 on receptions. When Cohen's would-be 73-yard walk-off TD run was called back because he stepped out, Howard stepped in and ran it in from 19 yards out to take down the Steelers, cashing at +275 on the money line in the 23-17 OT win.
The Packers rallied from a 21-7 halftime deficit and saved themselves major blushes by beating winless Cincinnati in OT 27-24. The Bengals were missing multiple starters on both sides of the ball but ended up one stop away from walking out of Lambeau Field with an upset. Instead of coming into this one 1-2 with talk of finger-pointing lingering since Aaron Rodgers was caughty criticizing playcalling coming in from the sideline by cameras, he led a 12-play, 75-yard drive to even things up with 21 seconds remaining. Rodgers made another big play in the extra period, Mason Crosby won it and an early crisis was averted.
The Packers still have issues, most of them injury-related, but Rodgers remains an effective band-aid. Avoiding a loss to Cincinnati even kept Rodgers' go-to "R-E-L-A-X" in its holster in case he needs to break it out next month. He threw three TD passes, two from 1 yard out, but Green Bay is going to have to run the ball more effectively and protect him better if they want to keep him healthy over the next few months.
This series began in 1921 and enters the night even at 94-94-6, so the Packers will be looking to take the lead for the first time this decade. They've won 12 of 14 in the series and are 16-7 under Mike McCarthy, who is 3-1 against John Fox while with the Bears and 5-2 overall, beating him on one occasion while he was at the helm of both the Panthers and Broncos.
McCarthy will look to reverse a trend that has seen home teams go winless through the first three Thursday night football matchups. Only last week's winner, the L.A. Rams, was favored.
Chicago Bears
Season win total: 5.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Odds to win NFC North:100/1 to 80/1
Odds to win NFC: 250/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 500/1 to 100/1
Green Bay Packers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win NFC North: 5/9 to 4/7
Odds to win NFC: 9/2 to 4/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1 to 8/1
LINE MOVEMENT
These teams entered the season as the favorite and worst-ranked teams in the NFC North and remain in those roles in latest Westgate odds update, but the Bears have definitely closed the gap in meriting some respect.
The Bears didn't see much movement after failing to come through on four chances in a goal-to-go situation against Atlanta in Week 1 and then saw the odds against them skyrocket after being obliterated in Tampa Bay. Beating Pittsburgh brought them back in the neighborhood they resided in prior to Week 2, and they're still among the NFC's biggest longshots. Green Bay is the conference's co-favorite alongside Dallas.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Packers were installed as an 11.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, but opened the week at just 7.5. There are a few of those still available at MGM and the Wynn, but there are mostly 7s around with some 6.5s likely looming. The total opened at 45.5 and looks to be settling in at 45-46.
Over the course of Wednesday numbers, Westgate took Chicago's money line payout from +275 to +300, while William Hill went all the way up to +320. Both list Green Bay at -400. Bookmaker has the Packers at -355 while BetOnline.ag came down to -335.
ODDSMAKER'S TAKE
Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu dropped the following nuggets on Wednesday morning.
"We’ve taken sharp money on both sides of this game, but not a ton yet, and the majority of that sharp action has come in on the underdog.
"They took the Bears in Week 1 and Week 3, and we could see more as limits are raised," Cooley said. "Unsurprisingly, the public is all over Green Bay. Currently, the ticket count favors the Packers 75-25, but the money is almost even, with Chicago holding a slight edge at 54 percent. The Bears upset (of Pittsburgh) had no bearing on setting the line."
INJURY CONCERNS
Green Bay's Geronimo Allison broke out for six catches for 122 yards in part because the Packers were missing Randall Cobb, who missed Sunday's win with a shoulder injury. He's not even listed on the final injury report after getting through this week's practices without a setback. Versatile receiver-turned-running back Ty Montgomery has been dealing with a wrist issue but is also going to play, so the Pack's main concerns will be along the offensive line.
Bryan Bulaga tried to play against Cincinnati but left with an ankle injury and is consdiered doubtful. Since top backups Kyle Murphy and Jason Spriggs have already landed on IR and fellow tackle David Bakhtiari is also doubtful due to a hamstring pull, rookie Adam Pankey and undrafted free agent Justin McCray will likely start. Defensively, LB Nick Perry and DT Mike Daniels are questionable while corner Davon Houst (quad) is considered doubtful.
The Bears could get top guard Josh Sitton, a former Packer, back from a rib injury that cost him a start against the Steelers, and also list center Hroniss Grasu questionable due to an injured hand. Versatile offensive lineman Tom Compton is set to return, so Chicago's offensive line should be a lot deeper than Green Bay's. Linebacker Nick Kwiatkowski is unlikely to play. Projected top WRs Cameron Meredith and Kevin White each landed on IR before Week 2.
RECENT MEETINGS (Green Bay 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS last seven; OVER 5-3)
12/18/16 Green Bay 30-27 at Chicago (GB -4.5, 40)
10/20/16 Green Bay 26-10 vs. Chicago (GB -7.5, 46.5)
11/26/15 Chicago 17-13 at Green Bay (CHI +7.5, 45)
9/13/15 Green Bay 31-23 at Chicago (GB -6.5, 48.5)
11/9/14 Green Bay 55-14 vs. Chicago (GB -9, 53)
9/28/14 Green Bay 38-17 at Chicago (GB -2, 51)
12/29/13 Green Bay 33-28 at Chicago (GB -3, 51)
11/4/13 Chicago 27-20 at Green Bay (CHI +9.5, 50)
PROPS
Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the UNDER on the longest field goal made and don't think we'll see a 1-yard touchdown.
Team to reach 10 points first: (Packers -220, Bears +180)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Packers -300, Bears +250)
Team to score first: (Packers -170, Bears +150)
Team to score last: (Packers -140, Bears +120)
First score: (Touchdown -160, FG/Safety +140)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3, Over -110, Under -110)
Longest FG made: (46, Over -125/Under +105)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (5 Over -130, Under +110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -280, No +240)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a TD of 43 yards or more?: (Yes -110, No -110)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +105, No -125)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -240, No +200)
PACKERS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Green Bay is 2-0 in this role (1-1 ATS) this season after surviving the Bengals. Counting last years's home rout of the Giants in the wild card round, the Packers went 6-2 as a home favorite last season (5-2-1 ATS), which includes a dominant 26-10 win in their lone Thursday night game against Chicago.
BEARS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
While Chicago is perfect against the spread at home and nearly has two monumental upsets to its credit, it was down 29-0 in the fourth quarter in Tampa before scoring a meaningless late touchdown. The Bears went 0-8 last season (2-6 ATS) as a road 'dog and last pulled an upset in this role on Dec. 27, 2015, beating the Bucs 26-21.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 5 currently has the Packers as a 3-point underdog at the Cowboys in Arlington. The Bears will be back in primetime on Monday night, hosting Minnesota in another NFC North clash. There was no line placed on that game.