NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 29th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
MIAMI (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/29/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami at Cincinnati
Miami: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Cincinnati: 17-6 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
NFL Week 4
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2) – Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.
Armadillosports.com
Dolphins visit Cincinnati
By Sportsbook.ag
Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Lines: Cincinnati (-7) vs. Miami (+7); Total set at 45
Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a pair of 1-2 SU AFC teams meeting in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Dolphins. Neither team can be happy with how the first three weeks of the year have gone, but truthfully, neither organization caught a break in their respective early season schedules.
Miami has already done battle with two preseason Super Bowl favorites from Seattle and New England, and then struggled and got a little lucky to knock off the hapless Browns in OT last week.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have played two Super Bowl contenders as well in losses to Pittsburgh and Denver in consecutive weeks, with a Week 1, one-point win over the Jets rounding out their early schedule. Things do lighten up a bit for both teams going forward, that's why it's important that the winner of this TNF game uses that win to build momentum heading into October.
Looking at the line, this is the third time in four weeks that Miami has opened up as a touchdown or higher underdog and all three of those games have been on the road. Their only ATS win vs the closing number came in Week 1 vs Seattle (12-10 loss) in a game the Dolphins should have really won outright. It's been a tough road to plod through for the Dolphins with three of their first four on the road against top tier opponents, but these early tests could pay off for Miami down the road and that's something to keep an eye on.
The Bengals are fully deserving of being touchdown favorites even at 1-2 SU, but with the bulk of the early action on Cincinnati pushing this line from -6 to -7, one can't help but wonder if the time is now to jump on the road side here.
Throwing aside that sloppy OT win vs. Cleveland that had Miami clearly looking past a Browns team starting their fifth different QB in as many games, the Dolphins have actually played fairly well this year. They had one bad drive vs. Seattle, one bad half vs. New England and if they can clean that stuff up a bit vs. Cincinnati they'll have a great chance to win outright. Cincinnati has gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four at home and the last four times they've hosted a Miami team, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS.
Miami also has a ferocious D-Line with Suh, Wake, and Williams up front and they should be able to create havoc for Bengals QB Andy Dalton all night long. The Bengals lead the NFL in sacks allowed through three weeks of play (12) and that deficiency from Cincinnati plays right into Miami's strength.
The worry here for Miami backers is whether or not QB Ryan Tannehill can take care of the ball and put up points. But after Denver's Trevor Siemian torched the Bengals defense all afternoon last week for 312 yards and 4 TD's, Tannehill shouldn't have too many problems on his hands.
Cincinnati entered the year as an outside contender to win it all this year, but this team doesn't appear to have the same talent on both sides of the ball as they have in recent years and simply put, this is too many points for a team struggling to find their identity in 2016 to be laying on a short week. This line could very well come back down to the -6 to -6.5 range, so grabbing that +7 with Miami is better done sooner than later.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
This weeks Thursday Night'r involves a conference battle at Paul Brown Stadium between the host Cincinnati Bengals and visiting Miami Dolphins. Opening odds at Bovada.lv has Bengals -7.0 point home favorite with the total set at 44.5.
Despite a home loss to the Broncos this past week, Marvin Lewis' troops have been good bets in front of the home audience. Since 2013 Bengals have posted a profitable 16-7-2 record against the betting line including 6-2 ATS laying -6.5 to -9.5 points. On the other side, Dolphins don't help themselves when when looking at certain numbers that are pertinent to circumstances. Miami squeeking past lowly Browns this past week does not bode well for the team. Dolphins are 1-9 SU, 2-7 ATS following a win the previous effort and roll into Cinci a money-burning 3-9 ATS as road underdogs of +6.5 to +9.5 points, 3-15 ATS vs an AFC opponent including 1-8 ATS in unfriendly territory.
More football betting ammunition against Miami. Playing on Sunday then turning around and playing again on Thursday is tough. But, more challenging for a road squad off a home game since they have the added stress of traveling. In the last fourty such situations road underdogs are 18-21-1 (43.9%) against the betting line. Not exactly the Midas Touch of NFL betting.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)
Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.
"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).
Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.
CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.
NFL Week 4 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Miami at Cincinnati: The Bengals get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from suspension to add some teeth to a defense that saw its secondary shredded for four touchdowns by Denver’s Trevor Siemian on Sunday. Unfortunately, DBs Dre Kirkpatrick and Derron Smith remained out of practice through Tuesday, while CBs Adam Jones and Darqueze Dennard join safeties Geroge Iloka and Shawn Williams in being banged-up. That should open the door for the Dolphins to continue airing it out offensively, especially with Ryan Tannehill coming in on a run of four 300-yard passing games over his last five. New head coach Adam Gase came on board looking to open things up and won’t have Arian Foster (groin) around to key the ground game as he misses his second consecutive game. Rookie Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi, who scored the game-winning TD against Cleveland, will again get the call working behind a potentially depleted offensive line certain to be without center Mike Pouncey (hip) and potentially backup Anthony Steen (ankle).
TNF - Dolphins at Bengals
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Miami at Cincinnati (-7.5, 44.5)
From 1971 until well after the turn of this century, the Dolphins owned victories over the Bengals in 12 of 13 meetings. After consecutive wins in 2004 and ’07, the first back-to-back triumphs Cincinnati pulled off against Miami since the late 1960s, this decade has seen three more losses, extending the run to 15 of 18.
Since neither team has won a Super Bowl since ’73, the disparity is strange, complete with a 7-1 run the Dolphins have gone on in Cincy over the last 30 years. The teams meet at Paul Brown Stadium once again on Thursday night with the loser staring a 1-3 start in the mouth. Although the Bengals have reached the playoffs in six of seven years and Miami has made it just once in 15, both have major aspirations and are well aware that a loss here would put them in an early hole.
Inconsistency has reigned for both thus far. Miami was impressive in a near-upset in Seattle in Week 1, rallied to scare New England at Foxboro the next time out and was lucky to survive a potentially embarrassing loss to the lowly Browns in their home opener last week, surviving a game-winning field goal attempt before prevailing in OT.
Cincinnati won its opener at the Jets in a game where it was outplayed before falling to the Steelers and Broncos, both considered top Super Bowl contenders. They were in those contests, but weren’t polished enough to have a key break go their way.
Injuries have been a concern for the Bengals, particularly in the secondary. The Dolphins have had health issues along the offensive line and lost Arian Foster to a groin injury after an impressive Week 1 debut.
As these teams play the NFL’s final September contest, there’s definitely a sense of urgency involved for both. A Miami defense led by handsomely-paid linemen Ndamakong Suh and Cameron Wake was carved up enough that it put itself in danger of suffering a loss at the hands of Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler and Terrelle Pryor pulling off the best Kordell Stewart impression pro football has seen since Antwaan Randle El. Meanwhile, Cincinnati hasn’t started with a record as poor as 1-3 since dropping the first eight games of the 2008 season.
Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC East: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 80/1
Cincinnati Bengals
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North: 2/1 to 7/2
Odds to win AFC: 5/1 to 20/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1 to 40/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Both of these teams have seen their expectations take a hit as the WestgateLV SuperBook adjusted its conference and Super Bowl futures and enticed bettors with a bigger playout for backing either team just to win their division, going even further with their AFC and Super Bowl odds. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Bengals -7 and have adjusted the line to laying 7.5. This is the most points Cincinnati has been over Miami since Oct. 15, 1989 when they also closed -7.5 at home but lost 20-13 when Dan Marino led a comeback from a 10-point halftime deficit to defeat the Boomer Esiason-led Bengals. The total remains stuck between 44.5 and 45 at most shops after being available as low as 44 earlier in the week.
BURFICT TIMING
The Bengals will get controversial linebacker Vontaze Burfict back, whcih should provide a major boost for the defense. Last time most of us saw Burfict, he was earning himself a three-game suspension after helping lose January''s AFC Wild Card game against rival Pittsburgh with a memorable unnecessary roughness penalty that was compounded by Adam Jones tacking on an additional 15 yards after getting into it with Steelers assistant and former star LB Joey Porter, turning kicker Chris Boswell's game-winning field goal into a chip shot in an 18-16 loss. Burfict has been credited with 401 tackles in 47 career games and is a difference-maker, often getting into the heads of opposing offensive players since he plays so violently. The Bengals have missed the edge he brings to the table, but are hoping he can leave the unnecessary nonsense behind.
ATTRITION ROCKS PHINS O'LINE
Talented Miami left tackle Branden Albert hurt his ankle and will be a game-time decision for this one. He's been mentoring rookie Laremy Tunsil, who would be his replacement, but the Dolphins are counting on his experience being a stabilizing factor on the road. Since starting center Mike Pouncey (hip) is out and backup Anthony Steen (ankle) likely won't play. Veteran Kraig Urbik should start, but the Dolphins were having multiple guys practice snaps during this abbreviated work week. Considering Foster and starting tight end Jordan Cameron (concussion) are also out, QB Ryan Tannehill is going to have to move a patchwork offense, He comes in on a run of four 300-yard passing games over his last five outings.
BENGALS LACKING FIREPOWER
Sndy Dalton threw for 366 yards in each of the first two games against the Jets and Steelers, but was held to just 206 yards passing and no touchdowns last Sunday against the Broncos. He's been held without a TD pass in consecutive regular-season games only twice in his career, the last time being 2014 (Oct. 19-26). Top tight end Tyler Eifert (ankle) likely won't play, while A.J. Green's supprting cast from last year, Marvin Jones and Sanu, are lighting it up elsewhere.
RECENT MEETINGS (Miami 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)
10/31/13 Miami 22-20 (OT) vs. Cincinnati (CIN -3, 43)
10/7/12 Miami 17-13 at Cincinnati (CIN -3, 45)
10/31/10 Miami 22-14 at Cincinnati (CIN -1, 44)
12/30/07 Cincinnati 38-25 at Miami (CIN -3, 45)
9/19/04 Miami 16-13 at Cincinnati (CIN -5.5, 40)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'm most partial to going over on Tannehill passing yards and feel Jarvis Landry will surpass his number as well. Either they'll be giving Miami a surprising win or attempting to mount a comeback from a second-half deficit.
Andy Dalton completions 21: (-110 over/under)
Jeremy Hill TD: (+105 yes/-125 under)
Ryan Tannehill passing yards 265.5: (-110 o/u)
First score TD: (-150, Other +130)
Jarvis Landry receiving yards 72.5: (-110 o/u)
Andy Dalton TD passes 1.5: (-120 over/EVEN under )
Ryan Tannehill TD Passes 1.5: (+120 over, -140 under)
Total sacks 5: (+120 over, -140 under)
Total points: Dolphins 18.5, Bengals 25.5 (-110/-110 o/u)
DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Miami's recent success getting points in Cincinnati has been referenced above, and they come in 1-1 in this situation against the spread despite a pair of road losses this season at Seattle and New England. They were 2-4 SU and ATS getting points on the road last season.
BENGALS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Cincinnati was favored (-3.5) against defending champion Denver last week and hasn't beaten the number as a favorite in the Jungle since routing the Rams 31-7 as a 9.5-point chalk last season, so they'll be looking to end a three-game cover drought at home.