NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 4

NFL Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks -- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.

Seahawks vs. Packers Betting Preview and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com

The Seahawks begin their Super Bowl defense Thursday by entertaining fellow championship contender Green Bay in a standalone showcase (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Seattle has been a consistently dominant home team in the Pete Carroll era, covering 24 of 35 games (68.6 percent) at raucous CenturyLink Field. Seattle has covered in those games, including losses, by an average of 5.9 points.

The Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

Line movement: The LVH opened this game Seattle -5 back in April, and while the number bounced between 5 and 5.5 through August, it crept up to 6 at a few Las Vegas venues two days before the game.

This total opened at 44.5 or 45 across Vegas and shot up to 46 or 46.5. It could be a reaction to the preseason, when refs strictly enforced illegal contact and defensive holding – exactly the kind of calls that make Seattle’s Legion of Boom less effective. For updated Las Vegas lines, see our live odds page .

Trends that matter: The UNDER is 5-0 in Seattle’s last five home games and 7-0 in Seattle’s last seven games vs. NFC foes … Green Bay is 59-36-1 ATS (62.1 percent) alltime with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

Rookie under the gun: Corey Linsley, a fifth-round pick out of Ohio State, will start at center for Green Bay due to JC Tretter’s injury. He’ll be responsible for setting up protections – a tall order with the 12th Man in full roar. If Linsley doesn’t bark out calls quickly enough, the Packers’ no-huddle offense won’t work.

Seahawks to manhandle Packers? Jordy Nelson says he expects the refs to ease up on the ticky-tack penalties; how this game is called will have a dramatic effect. If the refs let Richard Sherman and Co. mug Green Bay’s receivers, Rodgers won’t be able to overcome it. The Packers need to get a few calls to give them room to operate.

Eddie Lacy the X-factor: Coach Pete Carroll is concerned about what Lacy brings to Green Bay, with good reason. Lacy provides a hammer the Packers long have lacked.

“He will not go down easily,” Carroll told reporters. “They also have him in on third down and they don’t mind throwing it to him. He’s an obvious element now. He’s a big deal."

The Seahawks have a quick defense that's not overly big. Lacy could wear them down if Green Bay sticks with it.

Injuries that matter: Packers TE Brandon Bostick (leg) isn’t expected to play. It’s a small ding to Green Bay’s passing game.

Weather: It will be 74 and clear at gametime, with winds at 7 mph. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers’ lean: While it takes some gumption to bet against Seattle at home, Green Bay has been a fine play on the road under McCarthy, with a 25-20-1 ATS mark since 2009, and 41-27-1 since his tenure began in 2006. Sure, that doesn't match the Seahawks' 25-10 cash rate at home under Pete Carroll, but value trumps trends in our book, and we see value in the Packers +6.

We're also looking at the OVER, as we have the league's best QB on one side of the field, and the sixth-best (Russell Wilson) up against the 27th-ranked defense, according to The Linemakers' Kenny White.

Packers +6, OVER 46 are our plays.

Thursday Night Football: Packers at Seahawks
By Covers.com

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 47)

The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.

Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Seahawks as 5.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -6. The total opened at 45, but has risen to 47.

INJURY REPORT: Packers - DT B.J. Raji (IR, bicep). Seahawks - S Kam Chancellor (probably, hip), LB Bruce Irvin (questionable, hip).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-4) + Seahawks (-7) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -6

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened at Seattle -6 and we have not seen any sharp money yet. We are almost split down the middle on the game with 54 percent of bets taking the Seahawks -6. The total, which has jumped two points since opening, has 77 percent of backers on the over 47." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "First meeting between these teams since the replacement ref faux pas contest in 2012 figures to bring the Packers in with added incentive. Problem is Seahawks' 12th man in home games where they are 17-1 SU the past two seasons. Seattle is also 10-1 ATS in season openers at home. Coupled with the success of defending Super Bowl champions in Thursday games, 12-0 SU and 8-2-2 ATS at home, it appears a tough row to hoe for Green Bay in this lid-lifter." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Under is 7-0 in Seahawks last seven vs. NFC.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. NFC.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 54.15 percent of wagers are supporting the Packers.

Packers at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFL regular season is back with a dynamic matchup to kick off the 2014 campaign in the Pacific Northwest. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks will raise the first Super Bowl title banner in franchise history as they welcome in Green Bay to CenturyLink Field. Both these division winners are expected to do big things once again this season, as Seattle puts its fantastic home record on the line.

Since the start of the 2012 season, Pete Carroll’s squad has won 17 of 18 games at home, with the lone defeat coming to Arizona last season in a 17-10 setback. During this span, the Seahawks have covered 13 times, including a 10-5 ATS mark in the home favorite role. Many people can’t forget the second win during this stretch, the controversial 14-12 victory by Seattle on what has been dubbed as the “Fail Mary.”

In Russell Wilson’s third NFL start in Week 3 of 2012, the Seahawks were listed as a three-point home underdog to the Packers. Seattle rallied on the final play of regulation with a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Wilson to Golden Tate to grab the two-point triumph. However, it was the last game that the replacement referees would work after botching up that touchdown in which two of the officials had ruled opposite calls (one a touchdown, the other an interception). That victory would eventually jump-start Seattle, who finished that season at 11-5 and a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs.

The Packers narrowly won the NFC North title last season in spite of an 8-7-1 record, as Green Bay is seeking its sixth consecutive trip to the playoffs this season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers missed eight games in 2013 with a broken collarbone suffered in the first quarter of a Week 9 home loss to Chicago, as the Packers limped to a 2-5-1 record without their signal-caller. Rodgers lifted the Packers to a division championship with a 48-yard touchdown strike to Randall Cobb in the final minute of the regular season finale over the Bears at Soldier Field, 33-28 as three-point favorites.

Seattle’s magical Super Bowl run was punctuated by a 43-8 rout of Denver as two-point underdogs in a game in which the Seahawks dominated from the opening kick. The Seahawks’ defense dominated in the postseason by limiting New Orleans, San Francisco, and Denver to a combined 40 points, while Seattle allowed over 17 points just twice in 10 home games last season.

For what it’s worth, the Seahawks split four games in the preseason with both victories coming at CenturyLink Field. Seattle outscored San Diego and Chicago in those blowouts by a combined, 75-20, as the Seahawks easily covered in each of those wins. Green Bay finished the exhibition campaign at 3-1 SU/ATS as the Packers won their final three games after losing their opener at Tennessee.

The Packers finished last season covering just once in four tries as a road underdog, as the only game with Rodgers at quarterback in this situation came in the season opening defeat at San Francisco as 5½-point underdogs. Since November 2006, Green Bay has dropped six of its last eight primetime games, including an 0-4 SU/ATS record on the road in this span.

In season openers under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers won five consecutive times from 2007 through 2011. However, Green Bay has dropped the last two games in Week 1 in 2012 and 2013, both coincidentally to San Francisco. The Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in home openers under Carroll, but Seattle has posted a 2-2 SU/ATS record in Week 1 since 2010.

Backing the defending Super Bowl champion in Week 1 of the following season was once a pretty automatic win. From 2000 through 2011, these clubs put together a 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS ledger, but this trend has taken a downward turn as the Giants (2012) and Ravens (2013) have each lost their opener following a title.

The Seahawks opened as five-point home favorites, as money has come in on the champs, moving the line to 5½ and even six points at several outlets. Right now, Seattle is sitting as a steady 5½-point favorite, while the total is listed at 47. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST and can be seen nationally on NBC.

Green Bay visits Seattle
By Sportsbook.ag

GREEN BAY PACKERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -6 & 47.5

The Green Bay Packers head to Seattle Thursday night to take on the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the opening game of the 2014 NFL season.

The season kicks off with a matchup between two NFC powerhouses. Last season, the Packers dealt with numerous injuries but still won the NFC North Division with an 8-7-1 SU record (6-9-1 ATS). They are healthy now and are looking to start their season off with a big road win, going 4-4 SU (3-4-1 ATS) on the road last year. The Seahawks, however, are coming off of a blowout win over the Broncos in the Super Bowl to cap off an amazing 16-3 SU record (13-6 ATS), which included a 9-1 SU mark (6-4 ATS) at home. The Packers were road favorites the last time they went to Seattle in September of 2012, but they lost the game 14-12. That win for Seattle, however, is their only ATS victory over Green Bay since 2004.

The Seahawks are 2-6 SU in their past eight meetings with the Packers and 1-3-2 ATS in the past six matchups. Three of the last five games between these teams have gone Over the total. Both teams have positive coaching trends here, as Green Bay is 60-43 ATS (58%) versus NFC foes under head coach Mike McCarthy, while Seattle is a perfect 8-0 ATS at home in the first month of the season under Carroll, who is also 12-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since taking the job as the Seahawks head coach. Both teams enter relatively healthy, but the Packers will miss TE Brandon Bostick (leg) and DT B.J. Raji, who is on IR with a torn right biceps. For the Seahawks, RB Christine Michael (hamstring) is doubtful to suit up, while DE Bruce Irvin (hip) is questionable.

The Packers started off the season 5-2, but QB Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 9, which sent the team into a 2-5-1 spiral until he returned in Week 17 to win at Chicago and secure a playoff berth. Green Bay was also without starting WR Randall Cobb for 10 weeks of the season after he broke his leg in Week 6. But he too was able to return for that regular-season finale, scoring the game-winning touchdown in the game's final minute to send the Packers to the postseason. He is 100 percent healthy heading into 2014, and will be counted on to produce numbers like he did in 2012 when he caught 80 passes for 954 yards and 8 TD. But the injuries to Rodgers and Cobb forced the team to run the football more last year, and rookie RB Eddie Lacy delivered with 1,178 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in his rookie season, earning the trust of the players and coaches around him.

With the Seahawks defense leading the NFL in passing defense last year (172 YPG), Lacy will get plenty of action on Thursday night. If the Packers are going to go anywhere this season, however, they must improve defensively. Last season, the team allowed 247.3 passing yards per game (24th in NFL) and 125.0 rushing yards per game (25th in NFL). The healthy return of OLB Clay Matthews (50 career sacks), who missed five games including the playoffs, and the addition of DE Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) will put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and help out a subpar secondary that picked off only 11 passes last year (T-26th in NFL). This is an offensive juggernaut when healthy, but the defense must do a good job of keeping Aaron Rodgers and company on the field.

Seattle ended the season on top of the football world, blowing out the Broncos by a final score of 43-8 in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks, however, still have more to prove, as they want to establish themselves as a dynasty before they fade away. QB Russell Wilson will have a much bigger opportunity to run this team in the 2014 season. Wilson threw for 3,357 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season, but the team may rely on the pass way more often. Top RB Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, but he’s 28 years old and a very physical runner. The Seattle coaches will likely look to reduce his workload going forward. Having a healthy top WR Percy Harvin will do wonders for this offense. Harvin couldn’t stay on the field all of last season due to a hip injury and a concussion, but he is a playmaker who can help his team in a number of different ways.

In the Super Bowl, Harvin scored on a kick return to open the second half and also ran for 45 yards on just two carries. The Seahawks, however, win their games on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, they led the NFL in scoring defense (14.4 PPG), total defense (274 YPG), yards per play (4.42) and interceptions (28). While the "Legion of Boom" gets the most recognition on this defense with CB Richard Sherman and FS Earl Thomas, the front four is also stacked with talent like DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who combined for 16.5 sacks last season. This is a well-balanced team and they are very deep with guys who can come in and contribute.

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