Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
By Bovada.lv
The 2013 NFL season is set to kick off on Thursday, September 5 when the defending champion, Baltimore Ravens, take on the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
In what has become an NFL tradition, the defending champions normally kick off the new season at home. However, due to a scheduling conflict with MLB’s Baltimore Orioles, this game will take place in Denver. As you may recall, it was only a few short months ago that these two teams squared off for a game that went down as one of the greatest and most exciting tilts in history.
In that Divisional Playoff matchup, the Ravens forced overtime with a miraculous 70-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones, and ended up winning the game 38-35 in double overtime. As most of you already know, the Ravens used that momentum going forward to get to their first Super Bowl Championship since 2001. Peyton Manning and the Broncos were devastated after that overtime defeat, and you can be sure they will be using it as motivation next Thursday when they go for revenge against Baltimore.
The spread for this game opened at around seven points but the line has since shifted with most sportsbooks now at nine to ten points. While there will be many familiar faces taking the field next week in Denver, both teams have made a few key personnel changes to take note of.
Denver made headlines for all the wrong reasons earlier this offseason, when a fax snafu resulted in a missed contract deadline and forced the Broncos to release star defensive end Elvis Dumervil. While that was a big loss for Denver, they did make some notable additions as well. The Broncos added star slot receiver Wes Welker, and also improved their secondary with the additions of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Quentin Jammer. Willis McGahee is no longer in the backfield for Denver, but the Broncos did spend a high draft pick on Wisconsin running back Montee Ball.
For the Ravens, this season marks a new era for the franchise, as they no longer have team leaders Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The Super Bowl Champions endured a major overhaul this offseason and general manager Ozzie Newsome is well in control of the team, positioning Baltimore to be much younger and more athletic. While the Elvis Dumervil situation was a disaster for Denver, it worked out well for Baltimore as they were able to snag the coveted defensive player. After re-signing quarterback Joe Flacco to a $120 Million contract, the Ravens were unable to re-sign wide receiver Anquan Bolding. The plan was for tight end Dennis Pitta to pick up the slack on offense, but after he suffered a season ending injury during preseason, Flacco will have to look elsewhere when throwing the ball.
Things change very quickly in the NFL and nobody can be sure of what to expect from either of these teams this season. All eyes will be on both teams as they take the field next Thursday, and the one thing we can be sure of is that football is finally back.
NFL Week 1
Ravens @ Broncos — Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.
Armadillosports.com
Ravens at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the highly-anticipated rematch of the epic divisional playoff battle between the Ravens and Broncos. Baltimore knocked off Denver in two overtimes to end the Broncos' 11-game winning streak in Peyton Manning's debut in the Mile High City, en route to the franchise's second Super Bowl title. Now, the Broncos will take the field to get this campaign started again at Sports Authority Field against the Ravens as substantial favorites.
Rewinding back to the second round contest in January, Denver received a jolt of out the gate thanks to a 90-yard punt return for a score by Trindon Holliday less than three minutes in. The Ravens answered with a 59-yard touchdown strike from Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith to even things up at 7-7, while Baltimore's Corey Graham intercepted Manning and took the pick back 39 yards for a touchdown to give the Ravens a 14-7 lead five minutes into the game.
Following a pair of Manning touchdown strikes to Brandon Stokley and Knowshon Moreno to grab the lead back at 21-14 in the second quarter, Flacco connected again with Smith in the final minute of the first half to tie the game at 21-21 heading into halftime. The game total closed at 44, clinching an 'over' with a whole half to play since obviously there would need to be another score to break the deadlock.
Holliday stunned Baltimore's special teams coverage again with a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half, giving the Broncos back the advantage, 28-21. After Denver held a 35-28 lead and playing prevent defense in the final minute of regulation, Flacco aired out a 70-yard pass to Jacoby Jones, who got behind Denver's defense to even the game up again, while helping out Baltimore backers who grabbed the Ravens and 9 ½ points.
Justin Tucker's 48-yard field goal in the second overtime propelled Baltimore back to the AFC Title Game, as the Ravens own a 9-4 SU/ATS record in the playoffs since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008. Heading into Thursday's opener, Baltimore looks to improve on a 7-4 ATS record in the role of an underdog dating back to the start of the 2011 season, although three of those defeats came in 2012 to the Bengals, Redskins, and Texans on the road.
The Broncos eclipsed the 30-point mark in eight of nine games at Sports Authority Field last season, resulting in a 6-2-1 mark to the 'over.' John Fox's club profited in the home favorite role by cashing six of eight times, with one of the ATS defeats coming as 7 ½-point 'chalk' in a seven-point victory over the Chargers.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero gives his spin on this contest, "The Ravens have a few more questions to answer than Denver, which does have issues given its attrition at the center spot early in camp. That said, it's far more compelling to see how the defending champs replace staples on both sides of the ball. Making up for the production of Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta won't happen overnight, which is why Baltimore finds itself such a decided underdog. The odds of them coming up with another magical comeback works against them, making a strong start imperative."
Baltimore is the first defending Super Bowl champion to be listed as an underdog in the season opener since Tampa Bay back in 2003. The Buccaneers won outright as three-point 'dogs at Philadelphia, 17-0, as the Eagles lost in the revenge role after losing to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship the season before.
For those that take preseason into account when looking ahead to Week 1, both the Ravens and Broncos finished the exhibition campaign at 2-2. Denver covered just once, coming in the preseason opener at San Francisco, while the 'over' cashed in each of the final three contests. Baltimore took care of Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the first two exhibition games, but lost to Carolina and St. Louis in the last two contests.
The Thursday season-opener has been a low-scoring affair since 2007, as the 'under' has hit five of six times. Last season's initial game (which was played on a Wednesday) saw the Cowboys knock off the defending champion Giants, 24-17 as three-point underdogs, while the contest finished 'under' the total of 44½.
From the coaching perspective, Harbaugh has never lost a season opener in his career, posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record, but only one of those games came on the road (2010 at Jets). In Fox's first 11 seasons as an NFL head coach with the Panthers and Broncos, his teams have put together a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark in Week 1 contests in the favorite role (only cover against Steelers last season).
The Broncos opened up as 8½-point favorites with the number creeping up to nine at several spots before settling back to 7½. The total is set between 48 ½ and 49 depending on where you shop, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.
Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos
By Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)
The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.
Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.
LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.
WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.
2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.
3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.
StatFox Super Situations
NFL BALTIMORE at DENVER
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) terrible defense from last season - allowed 360 or more total yards/game 36-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.5% 0.0 units )
NFL BALTIMORE at DENVER
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games
56-25 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.1% 28.5 units )
Ravens vs. Broncos Point Spread and Pick
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com
The first game of the NFL regular season may be the most compelling matchup of the entire Week 1 slate.
Baltimore or Denver? Denver or Baltimore? It is easy to have a strong feeling about either side of Thursday’s Ravens-Broncos tilt in Denver.
Underdog Baltimore appears to have gotten some respect, judging from the line movement.
The Broncos opened as 8.5-point favorites at the LVH SuperBook in April. In late August, the number hit 9, but by Tuesday, the line tumbled down to Denver -7.5 at the LVH and some other shops and -8 elsewhere. The total is 48.5 at the LVH, one point lower than the opener, although it can be found as low as 48 and as high as 49.
The Broncos were 9-point favorites at the LVH in last season’s divisional-round meeting between the clubs, so any line close to that for the September rematch would make sense. However, Broncos backers may point out that Denver was in control for most of the two matchups with Baltimore last season. To wit: In 136 minutes and 42 seconds of game action between the teams a season ago, Denver trailed for all of five minutes and 47 seconds, and they never were down more than a touchdown.
Still, the Broncos managed just a split, and they let the all-important postseason meeting get away from them in unforgettable fashion, as Ravens wideout Jacoby Jones got behind the secondary for the game-tying TD catch when just about all hope looked lost for Baltimore. Ultimately, the Ravens prevailed, 38-35 in overtime, snapping a nine-game losing streak to Peyton Manning-led teams. It also snapped an eight-game covers streak by those Manning-led-teams against Baltimore, per data from Marc Lawrence’s Stat and Log Books.
Ravens backers couldn’t be blamed for having confidence in the club in the third meeting between these teams in less than nine months. Of note: Baltimore scored as many offensive touchdowns (six) as the Broncos did in the two matchups last season. Plus, one-third of Denver’s nine touchdowns against Baltimore were on returns — a kickoff, a punt and an interception.
The first of those three scores occurred in the regular-season matchup, and was it ever a game-changer. With Baltimore trailing, 10-0, late in the second quarter and deep in Denver territory, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco was intercepted by Broncos cornerback Chris Harris, who took it back 98 yards for a touchdown. At the least, this was a 10-point swing, and it may well have been a 14-point swing in an eventual 34-17 Baltimore loss.
That Week 15 game was also the first with Jim Caldwell as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator. It also occurred when the Ravens were perhaps playing their worst football of the season. The loss to Denver was their third consecutive defeat.
By contrast, the Broncos were carrying an eight-game winning streak into the first Baltimore matchup. Denver would close out the regular season on an 11-game tear before the divisional-round heartbreak.
It’s a new season
Let’s take a moment to consider what’s changed for both clubs since last January.
Here’s the good news: The Broncos now have three outstanding receivers, with Wes Welker joining Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The secondary may be even deeper than it was last season, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie a solid addition at cornerback.
The Ravens, meanwhile, helped their pass rush — and at Denver’s expense — with the addition of outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil. Overall, the Ravens did well to address some needs in free agency. The Ravens also have the reigning Super Bowl MVP at quarterback in Flacco. Could he still have room to improve?
However, the Ravens’ talent base may not be better than it was in 2012. Certainly their experience took a hit with the departures of inside linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed. Losing outside linebacker Paul Kruger, inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Cary Williams were further blows to a defense that hit its best stride when the stakes were highest last winter.
What’s more, Flacco doesn’t have the same caliber of targets to throw to in September that he had in January. The Ravens will miss Anquan Boldin’s toughness and dependability — and the 49ers will grow to love those attributes in short order. Flacco is also without tight end Dennis Pitta, who’s out for at least part of the season with a hip injury.
However, Flacco could still give the Broncos’ defense some major problems on Thursday night, considering Denver’s potential personnel issues on defense. Outside linebacker Von Miller (suspension) will miss the first six games of the season, and cornerback Champ Bailey is battling a foot injury. If Bailey is out, the Broncos’ secondary will be materially weakened against a Baltimore passing attack that was exceptionally sharp in the 2012 postseason.
That said, the Ravens’ offense may have to be on top of its game for Baltimore to hang in against Denver, which was 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home a season ago. After all, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has stood tall against a variety of Baltimore defenses stronger than this one. Say what you will about what Lewis and Reed may have had left late last season, but their presence wouldn’t have hurt Baltimore in a road opener on national television in the first game after winning a title.
The Ravens, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five road openers, per Lawrence, will need Dumervil, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs and defensive lineman Haloti Ngata to be at their very best on Thursday. Manning doesn’t take many sacks, but the Ravens at least need to collapse the pocket. Otherwise, a secondary with two new starters at safety (James Ihedigbo, Michael Huff) and some questions at cornerback could have some problems.
On top all of this, the Ravens can’t allow speedy Broncos return specialist Trindon Holliday to author another game-changing play like he did in the playoff meeting between the clubs a season ago. Even one long Holliday return, much less the two scores he registered in January, could be too much for Baltimore to overcome.
Super Bowl champions customarily open the season at home. The Ravens aren’t being afforded that courtesy, the result of a scheduling issue with the Baltimore Orioles, who play Thursday night at Camden Yards.
The point spread suggests the Ravens are not expected to win in Week 1, and it also indicates they could be in for a tough evening.
Of course, that’s what it indicated last January. And we know how that turned out.
The Linemakers’ lean: The Linemakers' Richie Baccellieri and Micah Roberts disagree on Thursday night’s NFL season opener. Richie doesn’t normally side with a favorite this large, but he likes the situation here where "there is rare revenge factor with the Broncos," who got embarrassed as AFC's No. 1 seed by the Ravens in the playoffs. He likes Peyton Manning to get the big win in this spot, and between the crowd and offense clicking, the Ravens won’t be able to keep up.
Roberts, while noting that bettors taking points are late to the party by missing out on +9, still thinks the gap between the two teams isn’t as great as the number currently posted (+7.5), especially without their top defender.
”Manning will get his yardage, and the Broncos will put points on the board, but I have serious questions about how their defense is going to stop anyone," said Roberts. "Von Miller being out is a much bigger deal than people are talking about because he makes their bad secondary look better by making the opposing QB throw quicker. With him gone, that could mean an extra 1.8 seconds Joe Flacco has to throw, and the addition of new aging DBs to Denver's already bad mix of Rahim Moore, Mike Adams and a hurt Champ Bailey shouldn’t put much fear into Flacco.
"This should be a high-scoring game with Baltimore having a chance to win late.”