NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NFL Week 1
Chiefs @ Patriots — Last 14 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 12-2 in its first game the next year (8-3-3 vs spread). Patriots are 6-2 in last eight games with KC; Chiefs lost last six visits here- their last win in Foxboro was in 1990. New England is 12-1 in last 13 season openers (lost @ Miami in ’14); they’re 14-1 in last 15 home openers, but just 1-4 vs spread in last five- their last four wins in HO’s were by 7 or less points. Chiefs won three of last four season openers; they’re 3-8 in last 11 road openers (under 8-4 in last 12), but 6-5 vs spread in last 11 AO’s as an underdog. Under Reid, Chiefs are 4-7 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog. Since ’13, Patriots are 17-8-3 as a home favorite, 11-4-1 vs non-division opponents.
Armadillosports.com
Pats host Chiefs in Week 1
By: StatFox.com
The 2017 season opens with the revamped Patriots defending their title against championship contender Kansas City.
New England was 17-2 last season including the playoffs – 14-1 once QB Tom Brady’s suspension ended. Despite having the league’s stingiest scoring defense and an all-time great under center, the Patriots made several impactful changes in the offseason, almost certainly improving their already elite roster. The Chiefs were 12-4 last season, earning the No. 2 seed and falling a mere two-point conversion short to the Steelers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. K.C.’s offseason suggests they’ll become less conservative on offense, as game-manager QB Alex Smith may be on the outs if he continues to leave big plays on the field. Their defense is stacked with playmakers in the secondary and the pass rush, forcing a league-high 33 turnovers last year with the potential to be even better in 2017. With Brady, New England is 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS vs. Kansas City, and 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS when playing in Foxboro. The last time these teams met was in January 2016, when the Pats covered a 6-point spread with a 27-20 home playoff win. New England is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in September over the past two seasons, though K.C. is 11-3 SU & ATS in their last 14 road games (dating back to Nov. 2015), including seven-straight SU & ATS road wins to close last season.
The Chiefs may have traded up to draft QB Patrick Mahomes 10th overall in April’s draft, but QB Alex Smith will remain under center for the foreseeable future. After finishing 15th in yards per pass attempt and 19th in passing yards per game last season, head coach and offensive play-caller Andy Reid may ask Smith to take more chances downfield. Smith has thrown just 28 INT in four years under Reid, but rarely makes splash plays and leaves a lot of opportunities on the field. Smith’s top target is TE Travis Kelce, coming off an 85-catch, 1,125-yard All-Pro season. Kelce is often isolated on one side of the field to force the defense’s hand in coverage, and he’s developed into an asset as a run blocker when opponents line him up against lighter defenders. With the release of WR Jeremy Maclin in June, lightning-fast Tyreek Hill ascends into the No. 1 WR role. He was almost unstoppable as a gadget player last season and scored thrice on kick returns. The rest of the receiving group is unproven. RB Spencer Ware tallied 1,368 yards from scrimmage in 14 games last season, and third-round draft pick RB Kareem Hunt is an immediate asset in the passing game. No defense created more turnovers than the Chiefs last season, and the All-Pro duo of S Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters are scoring threats when on the field. Edge-rusher Justin Houston is healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, and has tallied an impressive 60 sacks in 69 career starts. Former first-rounder Dee Ford (10 sacks last year) is coming into his own opposite Houston, while Tamba Hali (89.5 career sacks) gives K.C. a deep rotation of pass-rushers.
New England averaged 31 points per game under QB Tom Brady last season, and Brady shows no signs of slowing down at age 40. If not for a four-game suspension to start the season, Brady would’ve been an easy MVP pick, throwing for 28 TD and just 2 INT. Brady’s receiving group was upgraded this offseason with the healthy return of elite TE Rob Gronkowski and the acquisition of former Saints WR Brandin Cooks, who’s accounted for 2,359 yards from scrimmage and 20 total TD in the past two seasons. WR Julian Edelman (98 rec, 1,106 yards last year) remains highly productive on option routes out of the slot, and WR Chris Hogan had a career year and thrived in the playoffs in his first season as a Patriot in 2016. New England added former Bills RB Mike Gillislee (league-leading 5.7 yards per carry last season) and versatile former Bengals RB Rex Burkhead in free agency, while RB James White’s 139-total-yard, 3-TD performance in Super Bowl LI showed his ability to thrive in this scheme. Considering departed RB LeGarrette Blount’s success in the offense despite his unexceptional skillset, the Patriots run game won’t lose any efficiency. Devoid of stars, New England's bend-don't-break defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL last season. They win with scheme as opposed to individual talent. Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore joins a solid secondary that rarely gives up big plays, and former Panthers DE Kony Ealy will inject some life into the pass rush. LB Dont'a Hightower is an old-fashioned bruiser in the middle of the defense, while DT Alan Branch is stout against the run.
TNF - Chiefs at Patriots
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Kansas City at New England (-9, 48.5)
Nine years ago on the exact same date as Thursday's season opener, the Patriots opened the season against the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium and saw disaster strike almost immediately. Tom Brady suffered a season-ending ACL tear when Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard took out his knee in the first half, resulting in the only games he's missed since 2002 not related to Deflategate.
If not for eerie similarities between today and 2008, this game would be more easily billed as a potential AFC Championship preview given how stacked the Chiefs look coming off a 12-4 season. They finished with the second-best record in the conference behind the 14-2 Patriots but never ran into them in the playoffs, lasting only a single round following an 18-16 divisional playoff loss to Pittsburgh. Although Kansas City cut top receiver Jeremy Maclin and will be without top running back Spencer Ware for the season after he tore his PCL in the third preseason game, there are still plenty of weapons for New England to be concerned with.
Travis Kelce has emerged as a Rob Gronkowski type and has managed to stay healthy enough to replace him as the NFL's most productive tight end, leading the league in receiving yards and yards after catch while finishing second with 85 receptions. Tyreek Hill's speed makes him a dangerous weapon who scored 12 touchdowns last season as an electric return man and emerging receiver. Rookie Kareem Hunt, versatile Charcandrick West and veteran import C.J. Spiller are in the mix to help replace Ware, so Andy Reid will have plenty of options to try and trouble a Patriots defense that struggled some in the preseason and saw LB Shea McClellin and DB/KR Cyrus Jones join receiver Julian Edelman in being lost for the season.
Despite those injuries, the defending champion Patriots' hold on the favorite's role entering this season has strengthened following the preseason. Rob Gronkowski looks to be 100 percent and newly acquired receiver Brandin Cooks should be a valuable weapon whose role likely increases with Edelman out of the equation. James White, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are all on board as backfield options, so replacing LeGarrette Blount should also be manageable for Bill Belichick.
Even replacing Brady, as Belichick managed to do to the tune of a 3-1 start during last season's suspension, hasn't proven too daunting a task for the Pats of late. Unless he's out there mopping up after a blowout, New England doesn't want to see backup Jimmy Garoppolo doing anything but holding a clipboard. Brady had a productive preseason, throwing three touchdowns and completing 75 percent of his 24 passes. His 10 yards per attempt ranked among the highest in the league.
Alex Smith was inconsistent, but still easily held off the challenge of first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II. The Chiefs generated big plays on both sides of the ball in a 30-12 preseason Week 2 win against Cincinnati, then struggled mightily in Seattle in the dress rehearsal game, falling 26-13 after failing to execute on plays that were there to be made.
The Patriots are 14-1 in home openers in the Belichick/Brady era, while Belichick is 13-4 with New England in Week 1 (15-7 overall). Andy Reid has won three of four openers since joining Kansas City and won four of his last five with Philadelphia, so there's little doubt both teams should be prepared to get things started.
Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC West: 2/1 to 9/4
Odds to win AFC: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 12.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/14 to 1/25
Odds to win AFC: 3/1 to 5/4
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 to 11/4
LINE MOVEMENT
The Patriots may as well have already won their division as far as the odds are concerned since they're a wild 1-to-25, which is almost as amusing as the Jets going from 100-to-1 to 200-to-1 to win the AFC East before playing a game that counts in the standings. Since 2003, New England has prevailed 13 of 14 times, with the lone outlier coming in '08 after Brady was lost for the season and Matt Cassel was pressed into duty.
Kansas City has the second-best odds to win the AFC West, placed behind favored Oakland (5/4) and ahead of Denver and San Diego (9/2). Considering the Chiefs have won 22 of their last 26 regular-season games, a projected win total placed below double-digits raised a few eyebrows. Between the loss of Ware and their inconsistent preseason, the Chiefs have seen their conference and Super Bowl future odds become more longer overthe last few weeks.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots are currently laying 9 points in this first contest after the line initially opened at 7 and hovered at 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 but is set at 48.5 at many books as of Wednesday afternoon. Weather conditions are supposed to be clear and perfect for football.
INJURY CONCERNS
Kelce made this week's injury report due to a calf injury but was removed and is expected to play without limitations. The news isn't as positive on guard Parker Ehringer, who was downgraded to doubtful along with new linebacker Reggie Ragland. DT Bennie Logan (knee) and kicker Cairo Santos (groin) are also expected to play.
The Patriots have seen speedy WR Malcolm Mitchell limited by a knee injury throughout camp, so we'll see whether he can be a factor. The Patriots traded for WR Philip Dorsett from the Colts and also envision a larger role for Danny Amendola. Backup offensive tackle Cameron Fleming returned to practice but is uncertain here. Safety Nate Ebner is also questionable for New England.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
1/16/16 New England 27-20 vs. Kansas City (NE -5.5, 43)
9/29/14 Kansas City 41-14 vs. New England (NE -3, 46)
11/21/11 New England 34-3 vs. Kansas City (NE -17, 47)
9/7/08 New England 17-10 vs. Kansas City (NE -16, 43.5)
11/27/05 Kansas City 26-16 vs. New England (KC -3, 51)
PATRIOTS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Since losing to Seattle at Foxboro in Week 10, New England is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS at home, including playoff wins over the Texans and Steelers. They're averaging 33.4 points in those wins. Both of the Patriots' losses last season came as a home favorite.
CHIEFS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Kansas City was a road 'dog only four times last season and won three of those instances outright, carrying a streak into 2017. The Chiefs beat the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons in a four game streatch from mid-November to early December in 2016. The Chiefs haven't been this heavy an underdog since Week 2 of the '14 season when they covered at Denver in a 24-17 loss as a 13-point underdog. The last meeting between these teams saw Kansas City in this role in the 2015 Divisional playoffs. New England won and covered.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs at Patriots
Covers.com
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Seven months removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history that burnished the legacies of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots open the 2017 season on Thursday night against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. Emotions should be high as the Patriots celebrate their fifth world championship in a pregame ceremony.
Brady, who turned 40 last month, became the first quarterback in history to win five Super Bowl titles, rallying New England from a 25-point deficit in the second half to a 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons. New England, the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champ in 2003-04, was not content to stand pat in the offseason and brought in an elite wide receiver in Brandin Cooks -- an acquisition even more noteworthy after fellow wideout Julian Edelman suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. The Chiefs face a daunting challenge against a club that has won 24 in a row at home against non-division AFC opponents, but they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, having won 23 games over the past two seasons and claiming the AFC West title in 2016 with a 12-4 mark. "If you're in this business, that's what you thrive on, and I'd tell you both sides feel that way," Kansas City coach Andy Reid said of facing the Patriots. "The players, that's why they play the game. They want to play against the best. You want to coach against the best -- that's a beautiful thing."
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.5
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as seven-point home favorites way back when lines were first released in April. The public bet the defending champs steadily all summer and, as of Wednesday evening, the line was at -9. The total originally hit the betting boards at 50 and was dropped slightly down to 48.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Kansas City overachieved big time last season. Their stats were not indicative of their straight-up record, so the Chiefs will likely regress this season. New England is the best team in the NFL, even with the loss of WR Edelman. A deep group of speedy wide receivers makes their offense even more potent than before." - Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Chiefs - LB D. Johnson (Probable, Achilles), K. C. Santos (Probable, Groin), OL C. Irving (Probable, Calf), TE T. Kelce (Probable, Calf), OL P. Ehinger (Probable, Knee), LB R. Ragland (Probable, Knee), DB R. Parker (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Nicolas (Out, Knee), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (IR, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), LB T. Hali (Out, Knee).
Patriots - LB E. Roberts (Probable, Ribs), WR M. Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL C. Flemming (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Questionable, Knee), DL A. Butler (Questionable, Knee), DB N. Ebner (Questionable, Shoulder), LB H. Langi (Questionable, Concussion), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't put up big numbers -- his 3,502 passing yards in 2016 were a career high -- and has been tagged with the label of game manager, but the former No. 1 overall pick has tossed only 28 interceptions versus 76 scoring passes in four seasons in Kansas City. With the departure of veteran Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the top target following a flashy rookie season in which he amassed 12 touchdowns -- six via scoring passes, three on the ground and three in the air. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt, a third-round pick who piled up nearly 5,000 yards over four seasons at Toledo, ascended to the starting job when Spencer Ware underwent season ending knee surgery, while Travis Kelce is widely considered the league's No. 2 tight end behind New England's Rob Gronkowski. There's plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, with perennial Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry leading a secondary that tied for the league high in interceptions, and Dee Ford and linebacker Justin Houston providing a pass rush that needs to pressure Brady.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2017: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Brady missed the first four games in 2016 while under suspension for the Deflategate saga, but returned to throw for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions before capping the season with a record 466-yard performance in the stunning comeback in Super Bowl LI. Edelman was Brady's most trusted target with at least 92 catches in three of the past four seasons, but Cooks provides a dynamic big-play threat with 17 scoring passes over the past two years in New Orleans while touchdown machine Gronkowski (68 in 88 games) returns after back surgery ended his season after eight contests. New England was willing to let LeGarrette Blount and his NFL-high 18 rushing TDs leave via free agency, bringing in Mike Gillislee from Buffalo and Rex Burkhead from Cincinnati to go with Super Bowl hero James White in the backfield. New England led the league with an average of 15.6 points allowed last season and bolstered the defense with the signing of free-agent cornerback Stephen Gilmore, who registered a career-best five interceptions for Buffalo in 2016.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Patriots are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
* Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road pup Chiefs at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals action.