NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 8th, 2016

Thursday's Total Preview
By Sportsbook.ag

Week 1 TNF Line: Carolina (-3.5) vs. Denver (+3.5); Total 41.5

After months of anticipation, the 2016 NFL regular season is upon us and bettors everywhere are excited to get things going for real. Fans couldn't really ask for a better opening night matchup as it's a rematch of Super Bowl 50 and the Carolina Panthers would love to exact some measure of revenge by getting by the Broncos this time.

Much has been made about how successful betting on the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 1 has been to bettors the past few decades, but this is only the second time in this century that we've actually had a Super Bowl rematch from the year before. The only other time it happened was in 2014, when Seattle was able to beat Denver again (26-20) in OT, months after they stomped the Broncos 43-8.

Yet, although that's the only SB rematch we've seen this century, defending champions (Denver) are on a 14-2 SU and 10-4-2 ATS mark in Week 1 games during that same span. It's an angle you'll likely hear a lot about leading up to Thursday's game, but I'm actually looking to attack the total.

The Broncos are a different looking team on offense this year with Trevor Siemian getting the nod as the starting QB, and he's still a big unknown to many NFL bettors. He was a solid QB during his collegiate days at Northwestern, and Denver isn't going to be asking him to do a whole lot early on as he gets his feet wet as a starter in the NFL.

It's his presence, and the presence of Denver's dominating defense from a year ago that has already made bettors attack the “under” for this contest, pushing the number down to it's current state after opening at 43.5. That's a significant move, but I'm not so sure it's the right one.

Yes, the Broncos defense should be one of the better units in the league again this year, but it will still take some time to get to that point, and the Panthers have had all off-season to gameplan how to attack this unit that dismantled them in Super Bowl 50.

Looking over the history of Super Bowl rematches from a totals perspective, we've seen significant differences in points scored in the rematch to that of the title game and that could very well hold true here. In fact, the last four times it's happened, dating back to 1979, the rematch totals result was a perfect 4-0 when flipped against the result of the previous Super Bowl. That means that if the Super Bowl cashed an 'over' ticket for bettors, the rematch went 'under' and vice versa. It's an interesting trend that not many are talking about amidst all the SB rematch stats and should definitely be considered.

Getting back to the game, Carolina's offense was embarrassed by how they only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl as four turnovers really put the exclamation point on a poor showing. I don't believe those results will repeat themselves here and those Panthers drives (they got 21 first downs against this top tier defense) will ultimately end up in more scores.

Siemian might not be asked to do much, but Carolina is going to load up the box and pressure him relentlessly. Therefore, there will be some open shots deep for the new Broncos QB if he has time to see them and connect, meaning don't just think the Broncos will be ultra-conservative with their new signal caller.

This total number has come down to the point where there is actually quite a bit of value in going to the high side now and the “over 41.5” has clearly become the play.

Take “Over" 41.5 points

NFL Week 1

Carolina @ Denver – Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

Armadillosports.com

TNF - Panthers at Broncos
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Carolina (-3, 41.5) at Denver, NBC

With apologies to Carolina's Ron Rivera, who doesn’t feel it’s “fair” that the reigning NFC champion has to open the season on the road with a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos, he’s definitely in the minority when it comes to individuals not looking forward to this matchup. Rivera’s quarterback appears to be in his coach’s corner.

"A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's not a rematch," Newton told the Associated Press. "It's just our next opponent."

There’s no point in getting too wrapped up in semantics, but the fact is it’s clear that the Panthers are still raw over their Super Bowl 50 loss and not thrilled with having to travel nearly all the way across the country to open the 2016 regular season. It now remains to be seen whether they can channel that frustration into making life miserable for new Denver starting quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose first pass in this game will be the first of his NFL career.

While Peyton Manning was dreadful throughout most of his final season and didn’t have a great Super Bowl (13-for-23, 141 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), his value came in getting the Broncos out of plays that would be blown up by the Panthers, not to mention keeping the rest of the offense loose despite the magnitude of the game. Experience mattered. Siemian doesn’t bring that intangible to the table, but will have a homefield advantage in his back pocket to try and make his life easier against a stingy Carolina defense.

Newton committed costly turnovers in the Super Bowl and ended up a rather ordinary 18-for-41 for 265 yards, adding another 45 on the ground through six carries. It was hardly a Superman-like effort, which led to a controversial post-game press conference and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller clowning the regular-season MVP all offseason. We’re about to see how effective a vengeful Newton can be.

Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/13
Odds to win NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130)
Odds to win AFC West: 12/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 15, Denver was originally listed as a 3-point favorite. Carolina is now the 3-point 'chalk', although the total remains about the same. Weeks before the NFL Draft, WestgateLV placed the total at 43.5. It's currently available at 41.5 there and at most shops.

The unproven Siemian winning the gig over Mark Sanchez, who was ultimately released and landed in Dallas, undoubtedly affected this number despite Denver's homefield edge. Including the postseason, the Broncos are 32-6 straight up at Invesco Field at Mile High.

DENVER D DOMINATES

Miller had a sack, a hurry and a tackle for loss in his final preseason showing, so he seems quite ready for the season to begin. A bigger question mark would have to be standout corner Aqib Talib, whose last play in the Aug. 27 win over the Rams was a late hit on Case Keenum that was whistled for an unnecessary roughness penalty. Talib, who was shot in the leg back in June in an incident Dallas police is still investigating, hasn’t been suspended and will line up in his usual spot at left cornerback opposite standout Chris Harris despite rumors that he can be had for the right offer. Safeties Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward also return in the secondary, Of the 11 Denver defensive starters that lined up in Super Bowl 50, nine return. Only DE Malik Jackson (Jaguars) and LB Danny Trevathan (Bears) are elsewhere, which means the Broncos have a great chance to pick up where they left off. It should be noted that Denver only surrendered more than 20 points in one of their last eight contests, holding the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to an average of 14.7 points in dominating the postseason.

BENJAMIN RETURNS

After tearing his ACL last August, former top Carolina wideout Kelvin Benjamin will return to action, albeit on a limited snap count. According to Rivera, he sees a target of 35 snaps for Benjamin and would be willing to let him surpass that if he looks like his normal self. Benjamin, a 6-5 freak of a red zone target who had 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, caught six passes for 61 yards in three preseason games. Between Benjamin, 6-foot-4 Devin Funchess and 6-5 tight end Greg Olsen, Newton will have massive weapons to try and solve Denver’s defense.

CAM LOOKS TO BOUNCE BACK

Newton accounted for 45 of the Panthers’ 59 touchdowns last season — 35 passing and 10 more rushing. It looked almost unfair that he was able to lead the Panthers to an average of 40 points per game in wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals to get out of the NFC, but he was overwhelmed in the Super Bowl, which is all anyone remembers. It's further disconcerting that Newton was picked off twice in the preseason dress rehearsal game against New England, finishing just 13-for-29 for 100 yards while putting up just 3 points with the first-team offense. Although Carolina went 15-1 during last year’s regular season, Newton is just 14-18 in his career coming off a loss.

RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

2/7/16 Denver 24-10 vs. Carolina in Santa Clara, CA (CAR -4,5, 43)
11/11/12 Denver 36-14 at Carolina (DEN -3.5, 43.5)
12/14/08 Denver at Carolina 30-10 (CAR -7.5, 48)
10/10/04 Carolina at Denver 20-17 (DEN -4, 38)
11/9/97 Carolina at Denver 34-0 (DEN -8, 42)

DENVER OFFENSE SEEKS REDEMPTION

Because Manning and the offense were carried to the Super Bowl 50 victory by the defense, this Broncos offense does carry a chip on their shoulder entering this one. Look for them to keep life simple for Siemian, who will become the first quarterback ever to start for a reigning NFL champion without a single pass to his credit. He started just 14 games at Northwestern and tore his ACL in his senior season, but he’s won Denver teammates over with his intelligence and ability to translate what he’s learned on to the field. It’s unlikely that he gets pulled due to performance, but it should be noted that while the Broncos defense rightfully gets the bulk of the attention in this matchup, Carolina is also loaded on that side of the ball, returning six of its starting front seven from last year’s Super Bowl intact. Only the retired Jared Allen, replaced by veteran Kony Ealy will be absent, although the secondary has a new look with standouts Josh Norman (Washington) and Roman Harper (New Orleans) gone. If Siemian struggles mightily or is injured, rookie Paxton Lynch is likely to see his first action.

PANTHERS AS ROAD FAVORITE

Carolina was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in this role last season, losing only in Atlanta on Dec. 27 in suffering their only regular-season setback of 2015. The Panthers were a road dog in every game they played in 2014 and were 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) in this role in '13.

BRONCOS AS A HOME DOG

As you might expect, the Broncos don’t have a lot of experience as an underdog at Mile High, but did just get the job done in sending Tom Brady and the Patriots home in last year’s AFC Championship game as a 3-point dog. They were also getting 2.5 when they beat New England on Nov. 29 during the regular season and blew out Green Bay 29-10 on Nov. 1 of last year when also getting 2.5. Beyond 2015, you have to go back all the way to 2012 for Denver’s last game as a home underdog, a 31-25 loss to Houston when getting just 1.5.

NFL Opening Kickoff Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 41.5)

The 2016 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday with a rematch of Super Bowl 50, as the visiting Carolina Panthers look to exact revenge against the defending champion Denver Broncos. With future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning embracing retirement, second-year player Trevor Siemian won an impromptu quarterback competition with first-round pick Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez to claim the starter's role for Denver in the season opener.

"Trevor is the guy," general manager John Elway said of Siemian, whose lone NFL action last season resulted in a kneel-down versus Pittsburgh. "We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It's Trevor's job, but he's not going to be looking over his shoulder." Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware headline a top-ranked defense that silenced Cam Newton (45 total TDs in 2015) both on and off the field in February, but the reigning league MVP was quick to speak out against the notion of Thursday's tilt serving as a Super Bowl rematch. "A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's just our next opponent," said Newton, who was stripped of the ball on two occasions and sacked a Super Bowl high-tying seven times in a 24-10 decision in February.
: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has seen some major moves since it originally hit the board back in April. Books opened the Broncos as slight 1.5-point home faves, but then projected starter Brock Osweiler signed with Houston in free agency, causing the to reopen the line with the Panthers as 2-point road faves. Since then the Broncos named Trevor Siemian won the starting quarterback job and Carolina has moved to -3.

When it comes to the total, the action hasn't been as exciting. The number opened at 43 and has been slowly bet down a half-point at a time before setting at the current number of 41.5. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-6) - Broncos (-2) + home field (-3) = Broncos +1

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - LB A. Klein (probable Thursday, back), DT V. Butler (probable Thursday, hand), S D. Marlowe (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE K. Ealy (questionable Thursday, concussion).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Thursday, back), C J. Ferentz (questionable Thursday, knee), TE J. Heuerman (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Latimer (questionable Thursday, knee), WR B. Fowler (out Thursday, elbow).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night in Denver to kickoff the 2016 NFL season. The forecast calls for clear skies in the high 70's to start the game. There will be a slight five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting from wast to west across the field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We obviously have a lot of liability on the Panthers. The wiseguys hit Carolina early and often when this spread opened up back in April. On the money handle 80 percent of the action is on Carolina, and that started when they were a 2.5-point dog. The ticket count is even greater with nearly 90 percent on the visitor. The revenge factor is large and the public loves to play it. The under has been adjusted down two points from the opener and we have 65 percent of the handle on the under. We'll be praying for a high-scoring, easy Broncos victory." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant BookMaker.eu.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A rare situation where the defending Super Bowl champion enters the season with something to prove as an underdog. They still have a dominating defense that ranked 1st in the league in yards allowed (283) and passing yards allowed (200) per game last year. They also had the third best rush defense (83 yards per game)."

"However, there is no experience at quarterback. Denver cut veteran QB Mark Sanchez which means they enter the season with two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, who have never started a regular season game. Siemian was mediocre in his three preseason games last month with a 70.4 QB rating and a 1/2 touchdown/interception ratio." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2015: 15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Kelvin Benjamin was a spectator throughout the 2015 season after tearing his ACL, but the 6-foot-5 wide receiver will be on the field for the opener - albeit for approximately 35 snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer. "I think that's the best guess," coach Ron Rivera told the newspaper of Benjamin, who has been working on his conditioning. "If it is more, great. I'd be really excited about it. He's done some really good things and you see him getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing." Tight end Greg Olsen, veteran Ted Ginn (team-high 10 touchdowns) and promising second-year wideout Devin Funchess return in the passing game, while rugged Jonathan Stewart (club-best 989 rushing) will look to aid in the ground attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2015: 12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Demaryius Thomas led the Broncos in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1.304) and tied Emmanuel Sanders in receiving touchdowns (six) last season, but was limited to just one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl. Thomas will look for a better individual performance versus Carolina as he will likely be shadowed by rookie cornerbacks as opposed to Pro Bowler Josh Norman, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with Washington in the offseason. Denver would love to get more out of its running game this season as C.J. Anderson (720 yards) struggled throughout the early stages before capping his tumultuous campaign with 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50.

TRENDS:

* Super Bowl winners are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Under is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four season openers.
* Over is 5-1 in the Broncos' last six season openers.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly backing the favorite in this Super Bowl rematch, with a big 71 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are backing the Under.