Week 13 games
Redskins (5-6) @ Cowboys (5-6)— Washington is 5-0 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-6 when they allow more. Cowboys are in freefall, losing last three games by combined score of 92-22, 72-6 in 2nd half. Dallas was outsacked 14-1 in last three games, with -7 turnover rate (1-8). Cowboys lost four of last five home games. Redskins lost four of last six games, are 2-3 on road, 3-2 vs spread as road underdog. Dallas (-2) beat Redskins 33-19 in first meeting in Week 8, outrushing Washington 169-49, with +2 turnover ratio. Cowboys won seven of last nine series games, but Redskins won three of last five visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 0-4 in Cowboys’ last four. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games.
Lions (6-5) @ Ravens (6-5)— Ravens are +17 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses. Out of Baltimore’s six wins, five were against either backup QB’s or DeShone Kizer; Dalton is only decent QB they’ve beaten. Ravens are 3-2 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- they won three of last four games, allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last three games. Detroit won three of last four games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in Superdome when their offense gave up three TD’s. Home side won three of four series games; Lions lost both visits here, 19-10/48-3- their last visit here was in ’09. Over is 6-1 in last seven games for both teams. Lions have edge in rest/prep time; they played last Thursday, Ravens played on Monday. Detroit is 3-0 in outdoor games this season.
49ers (1-10) @ Bears (3-8)— Niners’ QB Beathard got hurt LW; this could be Garoppolo’s first start for the 49ers- he won his only two NFL starts LY for the Patriots. Chicago lost its last four games, scoring 13.8 ppg; Bears are 2-4 at home- two of their three wins were in OT, in the third one Chicago’s only two TD’s were scored by the defense. 49ers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 3-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-3-2-23 points. Teams split last six meetings; 49ers lost 26-6 here LY, after winning in OT year before. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-7. Under is 7-4 in Chicago games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last three games. This is 49ers’ first road game since Oct 29.
Vikings (9-2) @ Falcons (7-4)— Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins. Atlanta won/covered its last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this years, with wins by 11-20-14 points and losses to Bills/Miami. Vikings won their last seven games, covered their last six; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota won last two meetings 41-28/20-10, last of which was in 2015; they’re 5-2 in last seven visits to Atlanta. NFC south non-divisional home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Viking games went over total; under is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games. Minnesota had extra prep time, since they played on Thanksgiving Day.
Patriots (9-2) @ Bills (6-5)— New England won its last seven games, covered last five; they’re 4-0 in true road games, 3-1 as road favorite, winning by 16-5-7-24 points. Patriots have started 14 drives in enemy territory this year, their opponents only one. Bills lost three of last four games; they’re +13 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Return of Taylor at QB righted ship in KC last week. Buffalo won twice in last five series games, after a 1-21 series skid; Patriots won last five visits to Orchard Park, scoring 38.4 ppg in wins by 24-2-15-8-16 points. Home teams are 5-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Five of last six Buffalo games went over total; five of last seven New England games stayed under.
Broncos (3-8) @ Dolphins (4-7)— Adam Gase was in Denver for 6 years (2009-14), last two as OC. Denver lost its last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they’re back to Siemian at QB after Lynch got hurt LW. Broncos are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Dolphins lost their last four games (0-3-1 vs spread); Miami is 2-2 at home, 1-1-1 as a home favorite, winning home tilts by 6-3 points, with losses to Bucs/Raiders/ Denver won last two series games, 18-15(ot)/39-36; the OT win in 2011 was Broncos’ only win in seven visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Check status on former Denver QB Cutler (concussion); Moore starts if he doesn’t.
Texans (4-7) @ Titans (7-4)— Short week for Texans after loss in Baltimore Monday nite; they pounded Tennessee 57-14 (+2.5) back in Week 4, when rookie QB Watson rang up six TD drives and 445 yards. Houston is 1-4 in Savage starts, scoring 10.6 ppg; they’re 1-4 on road, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-26-7 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, with last four wins all by 4 or less points. Titans are 2-2-1 vs spread as home favorites. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games; they split last four series here. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Titan games went over total, as have seven of last nine Houston games.
Colts (3-8) @ Jaguars (7-4)— Indy lost five of last six games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars had 4-game win streak snapped in Arizona LW; Jags are 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home tilts by 37-16-3 points, with losses to Titans/Rams. Colts (+3) got blanked 27-0 at home by Jaguars in Week 7; Jax ran ball for 188 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Jaguars won three of last four series games, winning 51-16 in last meeting here two years ago. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Four of last five games for both teams stayed under total. In their last seven games, Jaguars outscored opponents 87-30 in second half.
Buccaneers (4-7) @ Packers (5-6)— Winston figures to return to lineup for Bucs team that lost six of last seven games, outscored 96-25 in first half of those games. Tampa Bay lost its last five road games, is 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Packers lost five of last six games, losing last three home tilts. Green Bay had three TD plays of 20+ yards LW; they had three all year before that. Packers are 2-1 as home favorites. Green Bay won last two series games, 35-26/10-3; last meeting was in ’14. Bucs are 1-14 in their last 15 visits to Wisconsin, last of which was in ’11. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 this season; NFC South underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread, 3-3-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in last four Tampa games; under is 3-1 in last four Green Bay games.
Chiefs (6-5) @ Jets (4-7)— Kansas City lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re back in Swamp Stadium for 2nd time in three weeks, after losing in OT to Giants two weeks ago. Chiefs lost last three road games- they’ve scored one TD on 23 drives in two games since their bye. Jets also lost five of last six games; they’re 3-3 at home (4-2 vs spread)- they were underdog in all six home games. KC won 24-10/24-3 in last two series games; they lost last two games against Jets here, with last visit to play Jets in 2011. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-10-1 vs spread, 2-3-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-8-1, 2-3-1 at home. Chiefs’ last three games stayed under total. Chiefs scored only 32 points in their last nine red zone drives.
Panthers (8-3) @ Saints (8-3)— Carolina won/covered its last four games, coring 80 points in last two games; Panthers are 3-0 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-27-35 points. Carolina is 3-0 as a road underdog this year. New Orleans had 8-game win streak snapped LW; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 14-8-20-3 points, and loss to Patriots. Saints (+6) waxed Carolina 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3; they were +3 in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards. Panthers won four of last six series games, are 3-2 in last five visits to Superdome. NFC South divisional home favorites are 3-2 this year; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-12-2 vs spread. Under is 6-3 in last nine New Orleans games.
Browns (0-11) @ Chargers (5-6)— Cleveland is 1-26 the last two years; the one win was 20-17 over the Chargers on Lake Erie last Christmas Eve. Browns are first NFL team since ’76-’77 Bucs to start consecutive seasons 0-11. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back for first time since late 2014 here; he is an explosive threat. Chargers won five of last six games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-30 points, and losses to Miami-Chiefs-Eagles. LA had extra prep time after Turkey Day win in Dallas- they’re 16-28 on 3rd down in last two games. Browns won two of last three series games; teams split last six meetings played here. AFC West divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 5-4-1.
Rams (8-3) @ Cardinals (5-6)— Trap game for LA after playing Vikings/Saints last two weeks, with Eagles/Seahawks on deck. Rams won five of last six games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 24-7 at Minnesota. LA is 5-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Arizona is 3-2 at home, losing by 11-6 points to Dallas/Seattle; they’re 2-1-1 as home underdogs. Rams haven’t swept Cardinals since 2012- they won last two visits here, 24-22/17-13. LA (-3) pounded Arizona 33-0 in London in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 197-25 in game where Palmer got hurt and was 23-0 at half. Road teams are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this year. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cardinal games, 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.
Giants (2-9) @ Raiders (5-6)— Giants are starting Smith at QB, ending Manning’s 210-game starting streak, 2nd week in row Oakland faces a backup QB. Smith is 12-18 as an NFL starter; he went 8-8 in ’13, is 4-10 since. Big Blue is 3-2 as a road underdog; they’ve lost road games by 16-3-2-10-10 points. Oakland will be without top two WR’s Cooper (concussion), Crabtree (suspension) here; they also changed DC’s last week. Raiders are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 25-1-7 points. Giants won last three games, by 9-37-4 points; they won last visit here 30-21 in 2005, their only win in three trips to Oakland. AFC West divisional home faves are 4-7 vs spread; NFC East road dogs are 8-3. Four of last six Giant games stayed under.
Eagles (10-1) @ Seahawks (7-4)— Philly has huge lead in NFC East; they’ve won last nine games, covered last eight- they ran ball for 196 yds/game the last three games. Eagles are 4-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 in Week 2 at KC. Seahawks are just out of playoff picture; they held last four opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, but also lost last two home games. Seattle won its last three series games, by 17-10-11 points; Eagles’ last win here was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional faves are 7-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West dogs are 6-10 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Three of last four Philly games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in last seven Seattle games. Eagles have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)- their opponents are 24 of last 97 on 3rd down.
Steelers (9-2) @ Bengals (5-6)— Steelers outrushed Cincy 153-71, were +2 in turnovers in 29-14 (-5.5) Week 7 win; Pitt won last five series games and 8 of last 9- they won last four games here, last two by total of six points. Pittsburgh won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 5-1 on road, allowing 13.5 ppg in last four road games. Bengals are 5-3 in last eight games, covering last three; they won last three home tilts, after losing home games to Ravens/Texans to start season. Cincy is +3 in turnovers in last four games, after being -10 in first seven. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-3 in Steeler games, 2-4 in Bengals’ last six games. Three of last four Steeler wins were by five or less points.
armadillosports.com
By Bookmaker
vegasinsider
Business is definitely starting to pick up on the road to the NFL playoffs. Almost all of the top teams in the league are on the road in Week 13, including six of the eight division leaders. There are some great storylines for bettors to keep in mind before heading to BookMaker.eu this week and placing wagers.
The Greatest Show on Grass
The Rams haven't had a winning season or been in the playoffs since 2004, but they're well on their way to breaking that 13-year playoff hex this season.
This week, Los Angeles is favored by a touchdown on the road against the Cardinals. The Rams haven't been favored on the road often since the "Greatest Show on Turf" fizzled out, but this week, they're giving a full touchdown to the Cardinals in the desert. It's the first time the Rams have been favored by this many points on the road since 2003 when Kurt Warner was the quarterback, Torry Holt was in the prime of his career and Steve Bartman was just another fan in the bleachers at Wrigley Field during the Cubs' run to the NLCS.
A Two-Dog Night in Seattle
The Seahawks aren't accustomed to being underdogs at home. In fact, prior to the game three weeks ago against Atlanta, the last time Seattle was an underdog at CenturyLink Field came back in Russell Wilson's rookie season.
Seattle didn't open up as a pup to the Falcons but did close that way. Now, they're opening as underdogs at BookMaker.eu in their very next home game against the Eagles. It's the first time in five years that the Seahawks have been pups in consecutive home games, and it could be the first time they've lost three straight games at home since 2008.
De Ja Vu in the Windy City
The Bears are virtually never favorites, and we found out why that's the case four weeks ago when they welcomed the Packers to Soldier Field. They were beaten 23-16 in what is still, to date, the only win in Brett Hundley's career.
Chicago has now lost four straight games in which it was a chalk, a mark that dates back to the 2015 season.
This week, the Bears are 5-point favorites against the 49ers. The last time they were favored by this many points in any game was in the first week of December in 2015 when this same San Francisco team came to the Windy City.
De ja vu much?
A Chalky November
The only game left to play in the month of November is the Thursday nighter between the Redskins and the Cowboys. Heading into the last game of the month, favorites are a whopping 37-15-4 ATS, huge month for public bettors.
On Thursday Night Football, we're going to be in a situation where the underdog Redskins are the public side. Dallas has been beaten in three straight games with Ezekiel Elliott serving his six-game suspension.
NFL Week 13 Odds
Redskins at Cowboys (-1, 44)
Lions at Ravens (-2.5, 42)
49ers at Bears (-5, 39.5)
Vikings at Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Patriots at Bills (+9, 49)
Broncos at Dolphins (-1, 38)
Texans at Titans (-7.5, 42)
Colts at Jaguars (-9.5, 41)
Buccaneers at Packers (OFF)
Chiefs at Jets (+5, 44)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 47.5)
Browns at Chargers (-13, 42.5)
Rams at Cardinals (+7, 45.5)
Giants at Raiders (-7.5, 44)
Eagles at Seahawks (+3, 48)
Steelers at Bengals (+5.5, 43)
Las Vegas sportsbooks feeling the heat as NFL favorites continue ATS dominance
By: Patrick Everson
Jay Rood’s first two words during a Monday conversation pretty much summed up the current mood of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
“Favorites suck!” said Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts.
It’s an understandable sentiment as Rood looks over the NFL sports betting landscape of the past few weeks. In November alone, chalk went 37-16-4 ATS, covering the number at a stout 69.8 percent clip. Over the last two weeks, favorites have gone 22-7-1 ATS, a 75.9 percent spread-covering rate, including 12-4 ATS this past weekend.
Bettors, especially public ones who traditionally love wagering on favorites, are cashing in big on this run. Thursday’s three Thanksgiving Day NFL games and the 11-game sled throughout the day Sunday pretty much summarized the past six weeks, in which favorites are 55-24-6 ATS (69.6 percent). The underdog Packers and Texans covering in the Sunday and Monday nighters kept an awful weekend for the books from being much worse.
But in some of these cases, there really isn’t much the sportsbooks can do.
“You’ve got a 17-point favorite, the Patriots, and they still cover. You’ve got a 14-point favorite, the Eagles, and they still cover,” Rood said in citing two Week 12 outcomes, while adding that the answer can’t just be to up the lines even more, because sharp buyback on the big ‘dogs could be harmful, too. “You’ve got to be careful.”
It’s definitely a delicate task to balance all the public money and the sharper action. And although the public loves to ride favorites, they did get one jolt Sunday – the 8.5-point underdog Bills upsetting the Chiefs – that kept a bad day for MGM books from being even worse.
“The public can always do the most damage. But at some point, the public is gonna take it in the shorts. Fortunately, they did with Kansas City,” Rood said. “To really crush us, they have to get it all right. Sunday was close to a complete disaster. But Buffalo outright was huge. The public was on Kansas City, and thankfully so.”
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, said his 100-plus shops around Vegas and throughout Nevada certainly weren’t immune to the favorite flu.
“This week was the worst. Thankfully, the Packers saved us from a complete beatdown,” Bogdanovich said, alluding to Green Bay covering as a 14-point pup in Sunday night’s 31-28 loss at Pittsburgh.
But Bogdanovich and all his peers understand this is cyclical.
“It’s not surprising. We won at an alarming rate early,” he said, pointing to favorites going just 35-53-1 ATS (39.8 percent) in the first six weeks of the NFL season. “It figured to swing to the players at some point.”
That point has now lasted six weeks. CG Technology sportsbooks, including Strip locations at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian, were in the red on three of four November Sundays. CG actually did worse on the Nov. 5 slate of NFL games than this past Sunday’s matchups, though bettors ruled the roost big-time on both days.
“The game that saved us (this week) was Arizona beating Jacksonville,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG. “It would have been quite a bit worse, specifically with parlays, if the Jags covered.”
In fact, pointspead parlays have created the biggest problem. When there are three or four surefire spread-covering teams week after week, parlay liability stacks up for the books and cash stacks up for the bettors.
“They’re riding the Patriots, the Steelers, the Eagles, the Vikings as of late, the Saints and the Rams. Then toss in whoever’s playing the Browns,” Rood said. “If three main teams are hitting and covering every week, it’s not too hard to pick a four-teamer and win consistently.
“Parlays against the spread are the ones that do the most damage. Moneyline parlays on $6 or $7 favorites, you put three teams together and it’s only paying 2/1. For us, knocking out the pointspread parlays is key. You can’t overcome 6/1, 10/1 or 20/1.”
All the books can hope for, as Bogdanovich noted, is the cyclical nature of the sports betting beast, while bettors hope favorites keep feeding that beast.