NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 10

NFL Betting: Week-Ten
Sportspic.com

It was another great week in the NFL and now it is time to start thinking about next week. With only a couple close games, this week was a pretty safe betting week. Andrew Luck proved that the Colts are playoff contenders, while Arizona lost again after starting the season 4-0. Here are a couple of games to look for next week when NFL betting.

Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

Both teams need to win this game in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tennessee were ripped apart last week courtesy of the Chicago Bears, while the Miami Dolphins lost a close one against the Indianapolis Colts.

Miami currently sits in the second place spot behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, but are far from guaranteed a possible wild card game. Ryan Tannehill has been playing very well, and thanks to Reggie Bush and Brian Hartline, the Dolphins have been able to compete. However, they have not been able to win many games, as they currently sit at 4-4. The will have a tough, but equal opponent in the Titans.

Surprisingly Titan’s quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has been playing ok as of late. Better than what many critics though he would do. Although Chris Johnson’s game has not improved dramatically, Nate Washington has been there to help drive the Titan offense. The Titians currently sit in third place in the AFC South and need to win in order to improve their 3-6 record.

Both the Dolphins and the Titians average about 325 yards per game. Tennessee has a slight advantage in the air, but with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas on the ground from Miami, that may be where the game is won. Many sportsbooks have the Dolphins to win this won, but it will definitely be a close game.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

If you are looking for an easy safe bet this weekend, look to the Patriots vs. the Bills. Like Bills seasons of yesteryear, they starting off strong and now are just clinging to life halfway through the season. Just the opposite, the Patriots have gotten over their season starting slump to become a force to be reckoned with.

Winning in Gillette Stadium is common for the Patriots. In fact, to beat the Patriots at home is one of the hardest things to do in the NFL. The Patriots are superior on the ground and in the air. Tom Brady already has accumulated 2408 yards for 16 touchdowns. Receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski are again leading the team in receptions and touchdowns, while back Steven Ridley has become a consistent runner after Ben Jarvis Green-Elis was traded away.

The Bills will probably have a very hard time with the Patriots. C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson are great offensive players, but New England’s defense should be able to hold them back. Many sportsbooks have the Patriots to take this game by at least four points.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 10
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

Philip Rivers’ swagger vs. Bucs' bad pass defense

Philip Rivers has never had an issue with confidence before, wearing that shit-eating grin on the sidelines most Sundays no matter if the Bolts are winning or not. But, the Chargers’ cocky QB did need a little pick-me-up after losing three in a row. That boost came in the form of Kansas City and an 18-for-20 passing day for Rivers last Thursday.

With a bit of swagger back, Rivers takes aim at the Buccaneers’ porous pass defense, which ranks last in the league after allowing 321.1 yards through the air per game. Tampa Bay made Oakland QB Carson Palmer feel like it was 2005 again, watching the aging arm pass for more than 400 yards and four TDs. Palmer did, however, get picked off three times. But c’mon, it’s Carson Palmer.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44)

Dolphins' retooled run game vs. Titans' terrible ground defense

The Dolphins are trying to get their groove back on the ground after having the turf pulled out from under them in recent weeks. Miami had a couple big rushing days – like 263 yards versus Oakland in Week 2 – to start the year but has since slowed down. The Fins are mustering just 3.8 yards per carry – 28th in the NFL – and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman isn’t happy about it. He’s shaking up the depth chart and focusing on the running game versus Tennessee, which is the perfect opponent to roll over.

The Titans have been road kill against the run all season, allowing 141.6 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL). Tennessee was gashed by Chicago RB Matt Forte last weekend, allowing the Bears star to rumble for 8.6 yards per carry. Teams have gone for the throat against the Titans, calling more than 46 percent of their plays on the ground.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

Texans’ care taking vs. Bears’ scoring defense

The enigma that is the 2012 Chicago Bears was broken down by SI.com’s Kerry J. Byrne this week, with the finger pointing mostly at how far the defense has carried this team. Chicago’s stop unit causes chaos all over the field, averaging an insane 3.5 takeaways per game. The Bears are nearly averaging a defensive TD per game and came away with scores from Corey Wootton on a blocked punt and Brian Urlacher off an INT versus Tennessee last week.

However, if you don’t give away the ball, how is Chicago supposed to make those big plays? Houston may have this already figured out. The Texans protect the football like a teenage daughter and rank tops in the league in giveaways per game (0.8). They’ve only fumbled the ball twice and QB Matt Schaub has been picked off only four times, including clean sheets in the past two outings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5, 43)

Steelers' speedy injuries vs. Chiefs’ new DC

Injuries are the great equalizer in the NFL, and with the Steelers suffering multiple mishaps to their speediest players, Pittsburgh could be in slow motion Monday night. The Steelers will be without road runners KR Chris Rainey and WR Antonio Brown and RB Jonathan Dwyer is nursing a groin injury which held him out of Week 9. The loss of those horses could have Pittsburgh leaning heavily on smash-mouth RB Isaac Redman. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s awful tough to cover all those points when you're slowly creeping down the field and keeping the clock on the move.

Kansas City should see a little more life on defense this Monday with head coach Romeo Crennel handing the stop unit over to Gary Gibbs. Crennel is dodging media criticism with the move, but letting Gibbs call the shots could shake things up with the assistant looking to make a name for himself. We’re not saying Kansas City – which sits 17th in total yards against and 30th in points allowed – is suddenly going to be a brick wall. But anything is better than the first nine weeks of the season.

NFL Week 10

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3) — If you go back a decade, average score of second Bill-Patriot game each year has been 32-8 Pats; average score in first meetings, 28-20. Patriots trailed first meeting 14-7 at half in Buffalo, then exploded in second half for 52-28 win, their 22nd in last 24 series games; Bills lost last eight visits here, with five of last seven by 10 or less points. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; only one of its five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 1-4 as underdogs this year, 1-3 on road. NE won four of last five games, forcing 15 turnovers (+9) in those games, after forcing only five in first three; they’re 1-2 as home favorites. In its last four wins, Patriots ran ball for 131+ yards; Bills allowed an average of 211 rushing yards in their last five games. Home favorites are 7-14 vs spread in divisional games this season. Last six Patriot games all went over the total.

Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5) — Cincy lost to Peyton Manning last week; younger brother Eli visits here, in series where home team is 8-0, with Giants losing all five visits to Cincinnati (four of five losses by 5 or less points). Bengals lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), with three of the four at home, allowing 34-24-31 points in last three games; they’re 2-3 as underdogs, 0-2 at home. Last three Giant games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’re 2-2 on road (4-0 vs spread), 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 1-0 on road. Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this year. Red flag for NJ: they’ve completed only 25 of 53 passes in last two games, scoring two TDs on 21 drives- they had defensive TD in each game. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-11 against spread, 1-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 5-6, 2-2 at home. Three of four Giant road games stayed under the total.

Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4) — Being 4-4 depends on your outlook; Tampa fans are thrilled to be .500 after losing last 10 games LY; some Charger fans are calling for Norv Turner’s head because he’s 4-4. Bucs’ WR Vincent Jackson left SD for Tampa and has invigorated Tampa passing game that averaged 6.9+ yards/attempt in each of last five games, during which time they averaged 33.2 ppg (20 TD’s on 59 drives, 31 plays of 20+ yards). Bolts had three extra days after Thursday night win that snapped three-game; they’re 2-2 on road, but lost at Saints/Browns in last two- they’re 0-1 as dogs this year. San Diego won eight of nine series games, including all five played here, but Bucs won their only Super Bowl on Chargers’ home field. NFC South home favorites are 5-6 vs spread outside their division; AFC West road underdogs are 2-5. Four of last five Charger games, and last five Tampa Bay games all went over the total.

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6) — John Fox returns to Charlotte to coach against team that (stupidly) let him walk two years ago, because they didn’t want to pay him what he’s worth; Denver is on roll, winning/covering last three games, scoring 35-34-31 points. Broncos scored 31+ points in all five wins, 21-25-21 in losses. Carolina lost five of last six games, but held three of last four opponents under 20 points; they’re 0-4 vs spread when scoring 14 or less points, 4-0 when they score 21+. Panthers lost last three home games, scoring average of just 11 ppg (3 TD’s on 30 drives). Home side won all three games in series; Broncos lost only visit here, 30-10 four years ago. AFC west non-divisional favorites are 4-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC South teams are 16-8 vs spread outside their division, 9-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Three of last four Bronco games went over; three of last four Panther games stayed under.

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4) — You’ll get spirited effort from Tennessee here after 51-20 home debacle vs Bears last week, after which octogenarian owner Bud Adams basically threatened everyone in organization; five of Titans’ six losses are by 23 points- they’re 1-3 on road, pulling out 35-34 win at Buffalo in last road trip, but losing first three by 28-24-23 points (1-3 as road dog). Five of well-coached Dolphins’ last six games were decided by 4 or less points; Fish are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were decided by 3 points) as underdogs covered six of their eight games, including last five. After running ball for 263-185 yards in Weeks 2-3, Dolphins averaged just 70.8 yards on ground over last five games. Miami won eight of last 11, three of last four series games; Titans lost six of last seven visits here, dropping last three by 14-3-12 points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2) — Baltimore won six of seven series games, but teams haven’t met since ’09; Raiders are 0-4 here, losing 28-6/29-10 in last two visits, last of which was in ’08. Oakland got run over last week by Bucs’ Martin, who had 265 yards on ground before giving few away on kneeldowns in last minute; they’re 1-3 on road, covering last two, but losing three of four, with losses by 22-31-3 points, and only win at 1-7 Chiefs.. Ravens’ 137 rushing yards last week was season high; they’re 4-0 at home, but 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 31-1-7-2 points at home. Baltimore allowed 24-43 points in its two losses; they had 26 plays of 20+ yards in first four games, only 11 in last four- they need more to protect injury-riddled defense. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC West underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on road. Three of four Raven home games, five of last seven Oakland games went over the total.

Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5) — New Orleans won 10 of last 12 games in one of NFL’s best rivalries (teams came into NFL a year apart), with five of last seven games decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta lost five of last six visits here, but are 8-0 this year, allowing only 15.3 ppg in four road wins (all vs teams with .500 or worse records, but Saints are 3-5). Saints won three of last four games, but wasn’t impressed by Monday night win over freefalling Eagles; loss of multi-purpose back Sproles (hand) hampers their quick passes out of backfield. Atlanta scored 17 TD’s on 54 drives in first five games, only five on 30 in last three, but they keep winning. Saints are 3-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; Falcons allowed 16.8 ppg in last four games; they’ve allowed more than 24 points once (Carolina) this year. Underdogs covered three of first four NFC South divisional games this year. Three of last four Falcon games stayed under the total.

Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (4-5) — Minnesota was outgained 341-227, didn’t score offensive TD, but had two TD’s on special teams in 20-13 (+3.5) win at Detroit in Week 4, just second win in last five games vs Lions, after they won 21 of previous 24 series games. Detroit’s 26-23 OT win here LY was their first in last 14 visits here; they’re 3-1 since bye, scoring 8 TD’s on 17 drives in last two games, with six of eight TD drives 80+ yards. Lions are 4-1 when they score 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t; Vikings allowed 29.5 ppg in last four games, after giving up 15.8 in first five. Minnesota QB Ponder looked lost at Seattle last week, when Vikes lost by 10 despite running ball for 243 yards; Ponder’s averaged 2.2/6.0/1.7 ypa in last three games. Detroit has run ball for 117.5 ypg since the bye, after averaging 90.3 in first four games, so they’re making effort to take heat off Stafford by running ball better. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.

Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4) — Much like Giants last week, Jet players have had to deal with hurricane-related issues to their homes, so long road trip west could help them re-focus; they’ve won eight of last ten series games, after losing first seven games with Seattle- they’re 3-4 in Pacific Northwest. Seattle much better team at home (4-0, scoring 23.8 ppg) with wins over Packers/Patriots; speedy WRs Tate/Rice allowed Wilson to become more dangerous improvising out of pocket. Curious to see how Jets change approach after getting drilled 30-9 by Miami in last pre-bye game, when normally reliable special teams fell apart in first quarter. NFC West teams are 13-10 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-5 as favorites, 4-4 at home; AFC East teams are 12-10 vs spread, 7-6 on road, 4-4 as road dogs. Three of last four Seattle games went over total. Many moons ago, Pete Carroll was once HC of the Jets.

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5) — Do struggling teams have home advantage? Home folks ain’t happy with Iggles, who allowed Vick to get sacked seven times in 28-13 loss to Saints Monday night—could be that Reid’s long (and largely successful) run as Eagles’ coach is nearing an end, since Philly lost last three games, allowing 26-30-28 points- three of their four home games have been decided by 3 or less points, and now they face hated Pokes on short work week. Dallas lost four of last five games, with last three losses all by 6 or less points; they’ve run ball for just 169 yards on 66 carries (2.56 per carry) in last three games. Philly scored 20+ points in only two games this year, and lost both of those. Home teams are 0-4 vs spread (2-2 SU) in NFC East divisional games this season. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total; three of four Eagle home games went over. Iggles won three of last four series games, but Dallas is 4-3 in last seven visits here.

Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2) — Niners are bully team, allowing 6 or less points in four of last five games, but they’re just 2-2 when they allow more than 6 points; curious to see if Rams’ patchwork OL can give Bradford enough time to move chains with favorite target Amendola back in lineup. SF won seven of last eight series games, winning last four played here by average score of 30-9. St Louis lost last three games, scoring four TD’s on last 27 drives; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, but haven’t forced a turnover in last three games (-4) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Niners scored 13-3 points in their two losses, running ball for just 89-80 yards; they’re 6-0 when they don’t lose the turnover battle, and are 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 8-4-27 points and a loss to the Giants. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC West divisional games. Six of last seven 49er games stayed under the total.

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1) — Possible Super Bowl preview with both teams’ only loss to Green Bay; Bears are setting unreal pace of forcing turnovers, with 28 in eight games; Chicago is already +16 in turnover ratio halfway through season- they’ve scored eight TD’s on defense/special teams in last six games, masking an offense with a suspect offensive line. Houston is underdog for first time this year- they’re 3-0 on road, with wins at Broncos/Jets/Jags. Texans turned ball over six times (-6) in only loss; they only have three other turnovers all season (+5 for year). Houston won both series meetings, 24-5 here in 2004, 31-24 at home four years ago. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-7 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last six Houston games, four of last five Bear games went over the total. NFC teams have turned table on AFC this year, with a xx-xx advantage in interconference games so far.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3) — Pittsburgh OC Haley was dumped as Chiefs’ HC during last season; hard feelings exist between him and KC front office. KC coach Crennel hired former Oklahoma HC Gibbs to be new DC during bye week, with Crennel becoming more of overseer of program; Chiefs lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), scoring two offensive TD’s on last 42 drives- they still haven’t led any game in regulation this season, and were down 24-6 in only game they’ve won. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing only four TD’s on 28 drives; they rallied from 10 down in 4th quarter to win in Swamp last week. This is just Chiefs’ second visit to Pittsburgh since ’89; their last was a 45-6 loss in 2006. Steelers won last meeting 13-9 LY at Arrowhead. AFC North teams are 2-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites, 2-4 at home; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on foreign soil. Six of eight Chief games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Betting Preview: Buffalo at New England
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

Buffalo at New England

Alf Musketa's Recommendation: New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -12 O/U 52
CRIS Current: New England -11 O/U 52
Rob Veno Power Rating: New England -11

Despite the fact that New England did not cover either game as a double-digit home favorite earlier this year (vs. Arizona -13 and NY Jets -11) we are still going to recommend the Patriots in this spot.

New England has owned the Buffalo Bills having won 22 of the past 24 games. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 22-4 lifetime against Buffalo conversely Bills head coach Chan Gailey is just 1-5 straight up versus New England. These teams met in Week 4 at Buffalo and New England shellacked the Bills 52-28. In that game Ryan Fitzpatrick had four interceptions and the Patriots’ running back duo of Stephan Ridley and Brandon Bolden had a coming out party and both ran for over 100 plus yards.

New England was down 14-7 at the half and then quickly behind 21-7 early in the third quarter. With their backs up against a wall and the season possibly on the line, (because the Patriots were 1-2 staring at 1-3), down by 14, they then ripped the Buffalo defense apart for 35 unanswered points and 45 total in the second half. I believe that this come back was their turning point in this season.

The Patriots had last week off to rest, get TE Aaron Hernandez and RB Bolden healthy. They picked up CB Aqib Talib from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a fourth round draft pick, but Talib is still under suspension and won't be able to play until next week. However this is a very positive sign as the Patriots need all the help they can get in the secondary/defense which ranks 28th against the pass. Devin McCourty will now occupy the safety position full time.

Buffalo played Houston last week on the road and that game was a telltale sign as they had the previous week off to work on their execution and defense. They did not show us much scoring only nine points and surrendering almost 400 yards on defense. Buffalo relies heavily on RBs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, but as we mentioned before nobody runs on the Patriots. They rank seventh against the run. Now the Bills play back to back road games against a division foe who has their number. A tough task indeed. New England is 17-7 ATS versus Buffalo with Belichick. Lay the points.

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

A must win for both teams as Cowboys face off against the Eagles. Cowboys coming off two tough losses in a row against the Giants (29-24), Falcons (19-13) will be out for blood and should handle a struggling, disfunctional Eagle squad. Cowboys 3-0-1 ATS on the road off a road loss as an underdog, 2-0 ATS as a road dog in November vs a division foe, 8-5 ATS as road dogs as worth a second look. Keep in mind, Eagles thrashed 28-13 in New Orleans do not respond well following a loss by 14 or more points (2-4-1 ATS) and that home favorites are a cash draining 31-51-3 against-the-number.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Matt Ryan and company will be aiming to stay undefeated (8-0, 6-2 ATS) when they hit the 'Big Easy' for a tilt against the 3-5 Saints (4-4 ATS). The only team still without a loss will have a big challenge come Sunday. Both teams actually have very similar air stats, Falcons hits for 278.1 yards/game, Saints 305.4. Both have weak ground games, Falcons produce 98.5 rushing yards, Saints 81.0 per contest. However, the Birds of Atlanta are 1-5 (3-3 ATS) last six visits to the SuperDome including an embarrassing 45-16 blowout loss last season. Only time will tell if Falcons stay undefeated but it's well to note if Saints uncork the ground game like the did vs Eagles last week (140 RY) they'll end Falcons dream season as Saints are a smart 15-2 (13-4 ATS) at home rushing for => 100 yards

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

Sunday Night Football at Soldier Field features two of the NFL's top teams, the Bears (7-1) and Texans (7-1). Interesting to note, both the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans have seen their only blemish come against the Green Bay Packers and there's not much difference between the teams even down to their defense. Bears have score 29.5 per/game, allowing 15.0 per and Texans have notch 29.6 PPG, surrendering 17.1 per contest. If that were not enough to have you scratching your head as to which team breaks, Bears are a perfect 4-0 at home, Texans 3-0 on the road. The similarities don't end there. Betting wise, Bears have posted a 5-2-1 mark at the betting window with the total going 'Over' in 5-of-8. Bears enter 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 3 or less, 7-1-1 ATS L9 in November. Houston is 6-2 against-the-oddsmaker with the O/U at 4-3-1 and Texans head to Chicago 3-0-1 ATS last 4 as a pup of 3 or less, 6-0 ATS in November. However, Texans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs Bears since the teams first met back in the 2004.

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 10
By Covers.com

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 10's action.

Denver at Carolina (3.5, 47)

Peyton Manning and the AFC West-leading Broncos hit the road seeking a fourth straight win against Cam Newton and the Panthers, who ended a five-game losing streak last week. Manning, the league's highest-rated passer, has thrown three touchdowns in five straight games after leading Denver to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Broncos are averaging 31.6 points over their last five contests and have outscored opponents 100-37 over the last 10 quarters. Denver has played over the total in six of its last seven road games.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3, 47)

Tampa Bay scored more than 22 points just once in its first four games, going 1-3 in the process. Following their bye week, the Buccaneers have won three of four contests, scoring 28 points in the loss while registering at least 36 in each victory. A big reason for the recent offensive outburst is the exceptional play of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and exploded for 251 yards off 25 carries with four TDs against Oakland last week. The Bucs have played over the total in their last five games.

Tennessee at Miami (-6, 44)

Titans QB Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30 and is expected to start. Team owner Bud Adams said his team was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" after the Titans were destroyed by the Bears last week and detailed that everyone on the roster was "on notice" following the loss. Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week, but rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill continues to impress and hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 pass attempts). The Dolphins have played under the total in their last four games overall.

Buffalo at New England (-11, 52)

Surprisingly, the Bills waged a gritty battle with AFC-leading Houston before falling 21-9 last week. After the dust settled, Buffalo was held without a touchdown for the third time in the past four games. Tom Brady and the Pats have revved things up, scoring 180 points in their last five games, including a 45-point outburst across the pond against the Rams prior to their bye week. New England has already beaten the Bills 52-28 this season and has now taken 17 of the last 18 meetings in the series. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Oakland at Baltimore (-9.5, 46)

The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, could be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and are questionable, leaving third-string RB Taiwan Jones at the top of the depth chart. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL. But more concerning is the fact that QB Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games. The Ravens are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (3.5, 48.5)

Eli Manning saw his streak of 25 consecutive 200-yard passing games end at Dallas on Oct. 28 and he followed that up by throwing for a season-low 125 yards in a loss to the Steelers last Sunday. The Bengals blew a 14-point lead to Denver last week for their fourth consecutive defeat - and third in a row at home. One reason for their skid is an increasingly one-dimensional offense and the failure of the running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to rush for 100 yards and has topped out at 69 yards during the four-game losing streak. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS during the slump.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1, 53.5)

New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game and their porous pass defense will have its hands full against QB Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history but has won five games this season by seven points or fewer. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Detroit at Minnesota (1, 46)

Detroit has won two straight and three of four since a 20-13 home loss to the Vikings on Sept. 30 left the team at 1-3 and mired in a three-game losing streak. Conversely, Minnesota has seen a promising 4-1 start unravel with three losses in its last four games, including back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay and Seattle in which the Vikings have surrendered a combined 76 points. Minnesota's offense continues to go sideways after Christian Ponder threw for only 63 yards and an interception in last week's 30-20 loss in Seattle. The Lions have covered in four consecutive games and the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests.

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6, 38.5)

Seattle’s home-field advantage is keeping it in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The Seahawks are 4-0 at CenturyLink Field, including tight wins over the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. After dropping two in a row on the road, Seattle came back to “The Link” last weekend and put together its best offensive performance of the campaign in a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Hurricane Sandy has left some Jets players and staffers without power for over a week, a significant distraction for the team during its bye week. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Dallas at Philadelphia (1, 44.5)

Michael Vick was sacked seven times as the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season, completing 39 of 60 passes with four TDs and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo strained his back on the final play of a loss to the Falcons last week, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest. The Cowboys have played under the total in seven of their last eight road games.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-11, 38.5)

The Rams hope the early return of Danny Amendola (clavicle) can spark their sputtering offense. It was feared he would miss the rest of the season but the gritty receiver intends on playing Sunday. San Francisco has won four of its last five games and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in any of the victories. Defensively, the Niners are allowing just 12.9 ppg - tops in the league. San Francisco has taken seven of the last eight meetings and is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Houston at Chicago (-1, 41)

The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. The Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.

Falcons at Saints: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1, 53.5)

The first half of the season has proven to represent a changing of the guard in the NFC South, but the surging New Orleans Saints will try to say something about that when they host the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons - the last remaining unbeaten team in the league - have solidified their status as the division front-runner, but the Saints are trying to work their way back into the playoff picture. New Orleans has won three of its past four games after starting the season with four straight losses.

Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and is just the 15th team to start 8-0 since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Saints have won 10 of the past 12 meetings against the Falcons, which is a big reason they've won the NFC South in two of the past three seasons and three of the past six. That includes a 45-16 blowout in the most recent contest on Dec. 26, 2011, in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing mark.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U 53.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-0): The Falcons have won five games this season by seven points or less, and they are 27-10 in games decided by one score during coach Mike Smith's tenure. The offense had its lowest-scoring output of the season in last week's 19-13 home win against Dallas, and Atlanta might need more with the defense getting a stern test from the Saints, especially with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon missing a second consecutive game with a sprained right ankle.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-5): New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game. The porous pass defense will have its hands full against quarterback Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints' offense has not been as prolific as in past years, and running back Darren Sproles is out at least four weeks after hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings in New Orleans.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Saints’ last 10 vs. NFC foes.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Atlanta is 29-0 when QB Matt Ryan starts and has a rating of 100 or higher, and the team is 15-0 when he has at least three touchdown passes.

2. Brees, who has a passing touchdown in an NFL-record 51 consecutive games, has passed for 300 yards in eight of 12 meetings vs. Atlanta since joining the
Saints.

3. Gonzalez needs one touchdown reception to become the first tight end and eighth player in history with 100.

Texans at Bears: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5)

A potential Super Bowl preview will take center stage Sunday night when the Houston Texans take the best record in the AFC into Soldier Field to face the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. Houston rebounded nicely from its lone loss against Green Bay, pounding Baltimore before its bye week and coming back from the week off to beat Buffalo last week. The Texans rank second in the league in scoring offense (29.6) and fourth in scoring defense (17.1).

Houston's balance on both sides of the ball does not create a mismatch for the Bears, though. Chicago ranks third in scoring offense (29.5) and second in scoring defense (15.0). The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss also came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. The Texans have won both previous meetings - 31-24 at home in 2008 and 24-5 in Chicago in 2004.

LINE: Bears -1, O/U 39.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the south at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (7-1): Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. Quarterback Matt Schaub is likely to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit, though, because the Bears rank sixth in the league against the run. Schaub is 11-1 with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in his past 12 games.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-1): Chicago has gone as its quarterback and defense go, which so far has been stellar. Jay Cutler has faced his ups and downs, but he has developed a strong rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall, who leads the NFC with 797 receiving yards on 59 catches. The defense has helped the offense too, not only by forcing so many turnovers but also by turning them into touchdowns. Chicago has taken seven interceptions back for touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five road games.
* Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Schaub needs 146 passing yards to reach 20,000 in his career.

2. Including playoff games, Cutler's teams are 26-0 when he has a rating of 100 or higher.

3. Houston RB Arian Foster has scored at least one touchdown in 10 consecutive games and has topped 10 rushing scores for the third consecutive season.

Week 10 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

It was a week to forget for the sportsbooks last Sunday as the favorites cleaned up in the NFL. Will things change in Week 10 with the underdogs coming back to life? So far, the Colts rolled the hapless Jaguars on Thursday night, but there are 12 opportunities for the 'dogs to rebound on Sunday, as we'll take a look at the chances of home teams receiving points.

Giants (-3½, 49) at Bengals

Cincinnati gets its second dose of a Manning brother in two weeks after Peyton beat the Bengals last Sunday, 31-23 to cash as five-point road 'chalk.' Now, the Bengals get to deal with last season's Super Bowl champs with Eli in town, after the Giants squandered a 20-10 fourth quarter lead in a 24-20 home defeat to the Steelers as 3 ½-point favorites.

New York hasn't lost consecutive games all seasons, but Tom Coughlin's club owns a 1-4 ATS record when laying at least 3 ½ points. The Giants have allowed at least 23 points in each of the last three contests, while the 'over' hit just once in that span in the shootout victory at Dallas in Week 8. New York has put together a solid 5-2 ATS record against the AFC on the road since 2008, but the G-Men were listed as a favorite just twice in that span.

The Bengals failed to step up against playoff-caliber competition last season, in spite of qualifying for the postseason. The same story is arising for Cincinnati in 2012 after falling at home to the Steelers and Broncos, but the Bengals have also mixed in losses this season to the Browns and Dolphins. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have cashed 11 of the last 17 times in the role of a home underdog.

Broncos (-4, 47) at Panthers

Carolina finally found a way to close last Sunday, as the Panthers beat the Redskins, 21-13 as three-point road 'dogs. The 'Cats return home, looking for their first victory at Bank of America Stadium since a Week 2 triumph over New Orleans. The task won't be easy for Cam Newton's Panthers, facing a Broncos' team that is on fire with three consecutive victories.

Since falling behind 24-0 at San Diego in Week 6, the Broncos have outscored their opponents, 100-37 in the last 10 quarters, while cashing in each of the last three contests. Peyton Manning threw two interceptions at Cincinnati last week, but the former MVP is getting back to that status by throwing three touchdown passes in each of the last games. Denver is riding a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a favorite this season, while Manning owns a 9-3 ATS record as road 'chalk' since 2009.

For the exception of a Week 3 blowout loss to the Giants, the Panthers have hung around every week, but have had problems finishing off victories. Before beating Washington, Ron Rivera's squad dropped four straight games by five points or less, including two home losses when holding the lead in the second half against Seattle and Dallas.

Falcons (-2½, 53½) at Saints

Atlanta remains as the league's lone unbeaten team at 8-0, but the quest for win number nine will be tough heading to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome against the rival Saints. The Falcons survived another scare last Sunday night by holding off the Cowboys at home, 19-13, while managing to make their backers happy with a late field goal to cash as four-point favorites.

The task won't be easy for Mike Smith's club, who has lost five of the last six meetings in New Orleans. The only victory came in overtime in 2010, a 27-24 triumph as three-point underdogs, a catalyst to a 13-3 season and a top seed in the NFC. Atlanta's defense has stepped up this season, limiting five of the last six opponents to 20 points or less, while cashing the 'under' in five of the previous seven contests.

The Saints have struggled from a defensive standpoint all season, allowing 471 yards per game, which ranks dead-last in the league. After losing their first two games at home to the Redskins and Chiefs, New Orleans has rebounded nicely with victories over San Diego and Philadelphia, including a 28-13 rout of the Eagles on Monday. The Saints are listed as a home 'dog for the first time since the final week of the 2008 season when New Orleans lost to Carolina, 33-31.

Lions (-2½, 46½) at Vikings

The last time these two teams met in Week 4, Minnesota scored a pair of touchdowns on special teams and knocked off Detroit, 20-13 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The scene shifts to Minneapolis this Sunday with these two NFC North rivals going in different directions.

Detroit has dug themselves out of a 1-3 hole to even its mark at 4-4 following back-to-back wins over Seattle and Jacksonville. The Lions scored 59 combined points in the last two weeks, after putting up 46 points in the three weeks prior. Jim Schwartz's club is the hottest ATS team recently by cashing in each of the last four games, but the Lions are just 2-4 ATS in his tenure when laying points away from Ford Field.

The Vikings have hit the skids after a 4-1 start by losing three of the last four games, including last week's 30-20 defeat at Seattle. Minnesota will likely be without one of its top weapons in Percy Harvin, who is listed as 'doubtful' with an ankle injury. In Minnesota's last three losses, the defense has been torched by allowing at least 30 points each time, resulting in three 'overs.'

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Betting the ‘chalk’ has been a goldmine for bettors lately and at the same time a nightmare for the sportsbooks. After watching the favorites go 10-4 last weekend, the public loaded up on the Colts this past Thursday and cashed another early holiday gift. One bookmaker, who hasn’t cried publicly with the results, told me that they’re (bettors) just holding our money for us and all things will balance out soon enough. I couldn’t agree with him more.

While sides have been a roller coaster this season, the totals have been as balanced as you can get. The ‘over/under’ went 7-7 last week and the ‘over’ holds a slight lead (67-64-1) on the season. Fortunately for the books, the primetime games have helped them a lot. Including Thursday’s outcome between the Colts and Jaguars (27-10), the ‘under’ has gone 20-9 (69%) in contests played under the lights this season.

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-1 last week with their early bets. Not much line movement on the afternoon games in Week 10, but both of the primetime affairs got hit and coincidentally they follow the trends that we talked about above. Also, weather is expected to be an issue this week as well.

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

Houston at Chicago: Lined opened at 44 and dropped to 39½
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Line opened at 43½ and dropped to 42

Midseason Trends

Every team has played at least eight games, which is a great sample for total players to identify both ‘over’ and ‘under’ clubs. Whether or not those numbers balance out will be seen over the next two months.

(O/U records listed in parenthesis)

Easy-Over

New England (6-2) – The offense can score on anybody and the defense isn’t outstanding. The Pats have seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight.

Kansas City (6-2) – It’s surprising to see the ‘over’ connect at high percentage (75%) here, especially behind an offense that can’t move the ball.

Tampa Bay (6-2) – We’ve seen five straight ‘over’ tickets for the Bucs, who have put up 38, 28, 36 and 42 the last four weeks.

Tennessee (6-2) – Hard to play an ‘under’ with the Titans, who have allowed 30-plus points in seven of their nine games.

Under like Thunder

Arizona (7-2) – Solid defense and an inconsistent offense equals a great ‘under’ combination.

Indianapolis (7-2) – The defense hasn’t played anybody lately but that will change with the Patriots on deck in Week 11.

San Francisco (6-2) – Oddsmakers are starting to post totals in the high thirties for the 49ers, which should’ve been done sooner.

Rematches….

Last week we touched on this seasonal trend and we’re going to hit on it again. Through nine weeks, there have been four divisional rematches and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 (67%) in these games but if you watched last week’s Baltimore-Cleveland (25-15), you’d probably agree it should stand at 4-1. Anytime you get field goals (6) instead of touchdowns (3), you’re going to see ‘over’ bets get beat, which was the case. Also, the Colts beat the Jaguars 27-10 this past Thursday and that game certainly had a chance to go ‘over’ late as well. This angle could balance out, which wouldn’t be surprising, but there are two other pending matchups in Week 10 and the oddsmakers are expecting points.

Buffalo at New England: Gamblers are looking at a total of 52 and based on the past three meetings between this pair, this number is too low. The Patriots and Bills have combined for 65, 70 and 80 points, the latter coming in the first encounter this season. New England’s team total is sitting at 31½ points and it should be noted that it has scored 38, 34, 31, 49 and 52 points in the last five against the Bills. Assuming the Pats eclipse the 30-point plateau, you still need Buffalo to do its job and that’s not a given. In the last three road games, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points. New England is off its bye week and under head coach Bill Belichick, the team is 9-3. Why so successful? The answer is not the offense, rather the defense. The Pats have held 10 opponents to 17 or less during this span and the other two posted 20 and 21.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Vikings beat the Lions 20-13 on Sept. 30 at Ford Field and the combined 33 points fell way short of the closing total (48). Six weeks later, the total has dropped to 46 and you could be scratching your head. Minnesota has allowed 30 or more points in three of its last four games and two of the quarterbacks were rookies. Now you face the Lions attack that has a legit quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who’s helped his offense scored 28 and 31 points the last two weeks. Minnesota’s offense has taken some criticism lately, especially QB Christian Ponder. The heat is fitting but the Vikings have still managed to put up 20 or more points in eight of nine games. Despite the potential for fireworks at the Metrodome, seven of the last 10 in this series has gone ‘under’ the number. Also, Minnesota could be without its most explosive player in Percy Harvin, who is listed as ‘doubtful’ with an ankle injury.

Fearless Predictions

It’s been an up and down season for us and after nearly putting up a bagel (0-3-1) last week, we’re 10 cents ($10) in the red at the midway point. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Seattle-New York Jets 38 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 22 Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 Atlanta-New Orleans
Under 47½ Seattle-New York Jets
Under 49 Houston-Chicago

Cowboys at Eagles: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 44)

A pair of underachieving NFC East teams will meet in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite lofty expectations, the season is in jeopardy of slipping away for both clubs as they head into this crucial matchup. Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line bore the brunt of most of the criticism as Michael Vick was sacked seven times and the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.

Dallas certainly isn't dancing in the streets either as it fell short in its bid to unseat undefeated Atlanta last week en route to a 19-13 loss. Tony Romo rebounded from a brutal first half versus the New York Giants to complete 25 of 35 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown versus the Falcons. Romo strained his back on the final play, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest.

LINE: Cowboys -1, O/U, 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-5): One can understand if LB DeMarcus Ware is licking his chops as he heads into Sunday's tilt. After New Orleans had its way with Vick, Dallas' sack leader will look to get his piece of the pie on national television. Ware has recorded nine sacks in his last three games versus Philadelphia. Tight end Jason Witten, who has recovered from his injured spleen, has 50 receptions for 462 yards in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-5): Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season. The electric quarterback completed 39 of 60 passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Vick received some bad news as right tackle Todd Herremans suffered a tendon strain to his foot against the Saints. Herremans was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, thus forcing the switch of King Dunlap to right tackle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight road games.
* Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles’ last eight vs. NFC East foes.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has been sidelined with a sprained left foot since Oct. 14, but did some light rehab work in practice on Wednesday. Murray is not expected to play versus the Eagles.

2. Turnovers have been critical to the shortcomings of both clubs. Dallas is a horrid minus-11 while Philadelphia is minus-9 in that department.

3. Coach Andy Reid boasts a 17-10 mark versus Dallas, while Jason Garrett has dropped three of his four contests against Philadelphia.