NFL Week 11 Opening Point Spreads and Line Moves
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
A first look at the opening lines and early betting action for Week 11 of the NFL season.
Dolphins at Bills (pick ‘em)
Both of these AFC East squads went down Sunday, the Dolphins in a shockingly large manner, as they were handed a 37-3 loss at home to the Titans. The Bills got the money in defeat, losing, 37-31, as 13.5-point dogs in New England.
Eagles at Redskins (-3)
Philly dropped its fifth straight game, this time as a 2.5-point home underdog to Dallas. The Eagles have covered once — once — this season. They’ll be a dog in Week 11 at Washington, who was off on Sunday.
Packers (-3) at Lions
The Lions lost, 34-24, in Minnesota. Green Bay, who was off, took some early action, and the number was tweaked to -3 (-120).
Cardinals at Falcons (-9)
Atlanta suffered its first loss of the season, falling in New Orleans, 31-27. The Falcons have been a favorite of at least a touchdown twice at home this season and failed to cover both times. Arizona covered the first three weeks of the season, but hasn’t gotten the money since. The Cards had a bye in Week 11.
Bucs (-2) at Panthers
Interesting to note that Carolina was a 2-point favorite in Tampa Bay in Week 1 — the Bucs won that game, 16-10. These teams are clearly going in opposite directions. The Bucs have won three straight and are a very profitable 7-2 ATS on the season. The Panthers lost at home to Denver and fell to 2-7. Carolina still took some early money Sunday night, moving the line down to Tampa -1.5
Browns at Cowboys (-7)
Dallas, who won handily in Philly, took early action Sunday night, pushing the line to -7.5. The Cowboys are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at home this season. Cleveland was off.
Jets at Rams (-3)
St. Louis went to San Francisco and tied the 49ers, 24-24, as 13-point dogs. The Jets were miserable in Seattle, losing 28-7, their only touchdown being scored by the defense. Action was on the Rams Sunday night, moving this line to -3 (-120).
Colts at Patriots (-9)
New England, who won but failed to cover against Buffalo, will be back in its familiar role as a big home favorite next week against the surprising Colts, who are a healthy 6-3 both SU and ATS. This game was at -9.5 briefly on Sunday night, but moved back the original numbers shortly thereafter.
Jaguars at Texans (-15.5)
Jacksonville has just one win on the year, but is 4-5 ATS. They’ll be a huge dog in Houston next Sunday.
Bengals (-3.5) at Chiefs
Cincy upset the Giants at home. Kansas City, who is getting double digits tonight in Pittsburgh Monday night, drew some early dollars, and the line was adjusted to -3.5 (even).
Saints (-4.5) at Raiders
This bounced around all over the place Sunday night. Heavy New Orleans money moved the line all the way to -6 less than an hour after opening, Raiders action that followed pushed it back down to -5, but action was then back on the Saints, and the number was bumped to -5.5.
Chargers vs. Broncos (-8)
The opening number was too big for bettors’ taste, as they took the Chargers and pushed it down to -7.
Ravens at Steelers (-4)
Baltimore won big, 55-20, at home vs. the Raiders. Pitt hosts the lowly Chiefs Monday night. The early action on next Sunday night's prime time offering was on the Ravens, with the line being moved down to -3.5
Bears at 49ers (-4)
Bears backers moved the opening number down to San Francisco - 3.5
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
New York Jets at St Louis Rams
The Rams mired in a 0-3-1 (2-2 ATS) slump have a very winnable game with dysfunctional Gang-Green and struggling Mark Sanchez paying a visit. Rams offense at least looking functional this past week should crack a Jet defense that just gave up 58 points to Seahawks, Dolphins. Bradford more comfortable with Danny Amendola back in the mix, RB's Steven Jackson, Daryl Richardson churning out a combined 159 rushing yards vs a solid 49ers defense aren't about to be held back by a Jets defense shredded for 599 total yards 6 TD's the past two games. On the defensive end, Rams aggressive pass rush (26 sacks) will have Sanchez eating dirt most of the day rather than guiding the team into the end zone. Stick with St. Louis, knowing Rams are on a profitable 4-2-1 ATS tretch at home, Jets are 1-3 ATS following a loss by =>21 points, 4-7 ATS vs the NFC West including 1-3 ATS when traveling, 2-7 ATS away after allowing =>24 point the previous game.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
The Colts behind dynamic rookie quarterback Andrew Luck avenged a 22-17 week-3 loss to Jacksonville by thumping Jaguars 27-10 this past week. The surprising Colts at 6-3 SU/ATS on the campaign and in the hunt for a playoff spot will either 'Show what there made of' or have a 'reality check' when they take a 4-0 SU/ATS streak into Gillette Stadium for a battle with New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS). As for Patriots this past Sunday, though they never trailed and defeated Buffalo 37-31 the Bills were threatening (15 yard line) and it took a Devin McCourty pick of Ryan Fitzpatrick with 23 seconds remaining to seal the win. With the close call and non cover Patriots now stand at 28-5 SU in Foxboro since 2009 with a 15-17-1 ATS mark at the betting window. A tough venue for Colts entering 2-7 (4-4-1 ATS) at New England in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era and 3-13 (7-8-1 ATS) last sixteen in New England's back yard. Then again, Colts 5-2 ATS as Dogs after scoring => 20 points the previous game could have a little 'Luck' covering the expected 9.5 points as they're more than capable of taking advantage of Patriots poor secondary which allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt (272.0 PYG) at home.
New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders
Having won four of five (4-1 ATS) including a defeat of Falcons the Saints for now anyway have turned it's season around. A trip to Oakland up next vs. a team that has allowed the second most points in the league (31.6) this one gets ugly early/often. Small price to pay (-4.5) for a Saint squad cashing 11-of-16 tickets against teams with a losing home record and up against an Raider team which has squandered the cash in five of it's last six at home (1-4-1 ATS) and sports a 1-3-1 ATS record at home following a loss by =>21 points.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
When the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers hit the field next Monday night they'll be starting backup quarterbacks. Chicago's Jay Cutler and 49er's Alex Smith suffered concussions this past week leaving Bears going with Jason Campbell, San Francisco counting on Colin Kaepernick. The losses may not be as severe as expected. Bear's Campbell won 11 of his last 18 games as a starter with Raiders tossing 19 TD's vs 12 Interceptions while rushing for 3 TD's. Kaepernick, a second-round pick in the 2011 draft has been used mostly in wildcat situations with San Francisco but the pivot more athletic than Smith has the ability to hurt an opponent especially with his running abilities. Kaepernick hitting 61.5% of passes has notched 177 rushing yards, 3 TD's when called into service this season. Looking ahead, 49er's are 3-1 (2-3 ATS) at home on 484.5 total yards (260.3 PYG, 224.3 RYG) with a winning margin of 8.5 PPG. Bears are 3-1 (3-1 ATS) on the road with an 18.0 margin of victory racking up 346.8 total yards split between 206.5 passing, 140.3 rushing yards. 49er's are on a 9-5 (10-4 ATS) stretch in Monday night football including 4-2 SU/ATS at home. Bears are 10-6 (8-8 ATS) under Monday night light's including 5-4 (6-3 ATS on the road. 49er's won the last meeting in San Francisco 10-6 as 3 point favorite marking a third consecutive win/cover hosting Chicago.
Week 11 NFL
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6) -- Free-falling Iggles likely to give rookie Foles his first NFL start with Vick having concussion; they've lost last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg in last four- they've changed DC's, hasn't helped. Redskins lost last three games, scoring 12-13 points in last two games (no takeaways, after 16 in first seven games); they're 1-3 at home, but are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 24 points. Philly won five of last six series games, taking last three by 31-7-24 points; Eagles won five of last six visits here, winning last three by 10-31-7. Home teams are 0-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Three of last four Philly games, six of nine Redskin games went over the total. Washington is 0-4 vs spread in last four post-bye games.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5) -- Green Bay won 12 of last 13 series games, taking five of last six visits here (Rodgers didn't play in loss) with all five wins by 7+ points. Three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Since '04, Green Bay is 8-4 as a road favorite in divisional games. Packers won five of last six (6-0 vs spread) in last six post-bye games; they're 2-2 away from home- this is their 4th game in dome this year. Detroit is 2-1 at home, with only loss 20-13 to Vikings (Minnesota didn't have offensive TD in game, but had PR/KR for TDs). Underdogs covered four of first five NFC North divisional games. Five of last six Packer games, four of last five Detroit games went over total.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1) -- Since 2008, Atlanta is 17-3-1 vs spread when they lost previous week; they lost for first time last week in Superdome, are 4-0 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-2-3-6 points, so hard to lay double digits with them. Home side won five in row and nine of last 10 series games, with average total in last three, 53.0; Cardinals lost last five visits here, with three losses by 23+ points- they lost 41-7 in last visit here, two years ago. Redbirds lost last five games after 4-0 start, scoring 10.6 ppg; they won all four times they scored 20+ points. Arizona is 1-5 vs spread in last six post-bye games. NFC South teams are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 6-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 10-6, 6-5 on foreign soil.
Buccaneers (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7) -- Tampa Bay is finding ways to win; in last week's win over San Diego, they had blocked punt for TD and defensive TD. In their last three games, Bucs scored 36-42-34 points; they've got 20 TDs on last 54 drives in last five games, and are 4-0 vs spread on road. Carolina looked like beaten team when they got smoked by Denver last week; they lost 16-10 (-2.5) in season opener down in Tampa; Panthers ran ball only 13 times for 10 yards- five of their seven losses are by 6 or less points. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC South divisional games. Last six Tampa Bay games went over total; three of Panthers' last four home games stayed under.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5) -- Sandwich game (Eagles/Redskins) for Dallas team that kept season alive with win in Philly; they're 1-2 at home this year, 0-3 vs spread, with only win 16-10 (-7.5) over Bucs. Cleveland is 1-3 as a road dog, losing all four games by 7-7-14-4 points- they're 5-8-2 in last 15 games against NFC teams. Dallas covered five of last six vs AFC opponents. Favorites are 10-1 vs spread in Cleveland's post-bye games, with Browns 0-6 as post-bye dogs; they've lost both meetings with Cowboys, 28-10/19-12. NFC East favorites are 3-12 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-7 at home; AFC North road underdogs are 3-4. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1) -- Mark Sanchez faced his old college coach last week in Seattle; he faces his old offensive coordinator here, as Schottenheimer landed in St Louis after Jets ran him out of town. Two teams with similar records going in opposite directions; Jets lost last three games, last two by 58-16 combined score. Only Jet TD last week was scored by defense. Rams are 0-3-1 in last four games, but tied 49ers at Candlestick last week, showing improvement. St Louis is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Packers- they're favored for first time this year, but are 3-0 in games where the spread was 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3; AFC East road underdogs are 4-5.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3) -- Who thought this would be a big game this year? New England is 1-3 as home favorite, with wins by 10-3-6 points, and a loss to Arizona- they allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games. Colts are playing inspired ball with HC Pagano ill; they've won/covered last four games, are 4-2 as underdogs, 1-2 on road, but two of their three losses were by 20-26 points (also lost to Jags by 5). Patriots won last two series games (31-28/31-24) after losing five of previous six to Indy; last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC East favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South dogs are 10-8, 5-4 on foreign soil. Last seven Patriot games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts' last four.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1) -- Trap game for Houston, after national TV win vs Bears, before Thanksgiving Day in Detroit; they hammered Jags 27-7 (-7.5) back in Week 2, outrushing hosts 216-65, holding Jax to 117 total yards, seven 3/outs in 11 drives. Texans won last four series games by average score of 26-13; they are 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-24-30-12 points. Jaguars lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they're 4-0 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-9 points, with win at Indy- they had three extra days to prepare. Under is 5-3 in Jags' last eight games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional tilts; home favorites are 7-16-1 league-wide in divisional games.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8) -- First road game in five weeks for Bengals, who forced four turnovers in home upset of Giants last week; Cincy is 4-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't- they're 2-2 on road, with dog covering last three. Chiefs allowed 24+ points in seven of nine games, losing 16-13 in slop in OT at Pittsburgh Monday- they have three TDs on last 55 drives, but finally had a lead on Monday. Home side won nine of last 11 series games, with Bengals losing six of last eight visits to Arrowhead. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 2-2 at home; AFC North favorites are 3-9, 0-4 on road. Three of four Bengal road games, three of last four KC games went over total.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6) -- Oakland gave up 42-55 points last two games (12 TDs allowed on last 27 drives) now explosive Saints come to town; if Freeman, Flacco averaged 7.6/10.0 ypa, what will Brees get? Oakland is 2-2 at home, with last three of those going over total; Raiders allowed average of 29.5 ppg at home this year. Saints won four of last five games; they're 1-3 on road, with only win by 7 at Tampa Bay- they covered last three tries as a favorite. Saints won five of last seven series games, winning last two played here, 13-10/31-26. NFC South favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 5-9, 2-2 at home. Three of Saints' four road games went over total.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3) -- San Diego lost four of last five games, allowing four TDs on defense/special teams last four games; Denver won/covered four in row, scoring five TDs on defense/special teams. Broncos (+1.5) won 35-24 first time teams met in Week 6, forcing six SD turnovers (+3) in game Bolts led 24-0 at half. Denver scored 31+ points in all six wins; 21-25-21 in losses. San Diego allowed 7-13-34 points in last three games, but only one of three Buc TDs was allowed by defense. This is Norv Turner's last stand as Charger coach. Favorites are 4-2 in AFC West divisional games, 2-2 at home. Five of last six San Diego games, four of last five Bronco games went over the total.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3) -- Health of Roethlisberger's shoulder big concern for Steelers, who won last four games, but were lucky to do so with Leftwich under center in Heinz quagmire Monday night. Steelers are 4-0 at home, allowing average of 12.3 ppg; in last three games overall, they've allowed three TDs on 31 drives. Ravens are +9 in turnovers; they're 2-2 on road, woth wins over Browns, Chiefs, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Ravens scored TD on defense/special teams in four of seven wins. Baltimore swept series 35-7/23-20 LY; they've won two of last three visits here, are 4-3 in last seven series games overall. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total; three of last four Raven games went over.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1) -- Both starting QB's got concussions last week; not sure if either will play, but both teams have decent backups. Home teams won last 10 series games; Bears lost last seven visits here, with last win in '85, season Chicago won only Super Bowl. Bears' only losses came in night games; they are 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 16+ points. Chicago was +16 in turnovers in first half of season, but was -2 in loss Sunday; they;ve turned ball over 8 times in last three games, as sputtering offense was hidden by aggressive defense. 49ers are 2-3 as home favorites, losing to Giants, tying Rams. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 1-3.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Betting Preview: New Orleans at Oakland
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
New Orleans at Oakland
Alf Musketa’s Recommendation: New Orleans
Sunday, 1 pm PT – FOX
CRIS Opener: New Orleans -6.5 O/U 54
CRIS Current: New Orleans -4.5 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: New Orleans -3
Sure, last week Atlanta could have scored on one of its two first-and-goal possessions in the fourth quarter and won the game. But they didn't and I believe you have to credit the Saints defense for winning that game. That's right the Saints defense snatched victory away from the Falcons and thus they are no longer undefeated.
Some credit has to go to new interim head coach Joe Vitt who seems to have sparked the defense and produced a better balance on offense. We certainly have noticed returning running back Chris Ivory slashing through tackles, scoring touchdowns and that always opens up the passing game a bit and keeps the opposition's defense in check. It also forces them to not blitz as much, but what a running game does for New Orleans more than that is it keeps the defense off the field. The defense now plays less tired, more intense and with a healthy core of linebackers Jonathan Vilma can finally complement Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne who have needed serious help all season long.
The Saints defense still ranks dead last in the NFL, but they are improving. In just the past two weeks they went from 32nd in giving up third down conversions to 18th. The Raiders defense has actually looked worse in their past two games surrendering 97 points and 934 yards!
Oakland looks like they will be without the services of running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson once again, leaving the offense totally in the hands of Carson Palmer and his receivers. I'd much rather have Drew Brees and his receivers plus All-Pro TE Jimmy Graham who deems himself 100 percent healhty and it showed last week with 146 yards and two touchdowns versus Atlanta.
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By Covers.com
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 11's action.
Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5, 43.5)
Philadelphia suffered its fifth straight defeat with Sunday's 38-23 loss to Dallas and now limps into Washington on Sunday without the services of QB Michael Vick (concussion), according to multiple reports. Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.
Green Bay at Detroit (3.5, 51.5)
The Packers look for their fifth consecutive win when they visit Detroit on Sunday. Green Bay has owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings. Aaron Rodgers has caught fire, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. But the Pack will be without team sack leader Clay Matthews, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Detroit.
Arizona at Atlanta (-9.5, 44)
Atlanta was the last NFL team clinging to perfection until a 31-27 loss at New Orleans last week while the Cardinals are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing five straight. Five of Arizona's nine games (three wins, two losses) have been decided by seven points or fewer, while the Falcons are 5-1 in such games. John Skelton is expected to make another start at QB for the Cards as Kevin Kolb will miss his fourth straight game with rib and shoulder injuries. The Arizona defense ranks second in the league against the pass, which should give the Cardinals a fighting chance against the Falcons' high-flying offense. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (1, 49)
The Buccaneers have won four of their past five games to surge back into the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay's unexpectedly explosive offense has put up 28 or more points in five straight games, thanks to the emergence of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is the only player in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Tampa Bay's first four games were decided by a touchdown or less, but its past five have featured an average margin of 14.8 points. The Bucs have played over the total in their last six overall.
Cleveland at Dallas (-9.5, 43.5)
The Cowboys haven't registered back-to-back victories since a four-game winning streak in November 2011, but they have a golden chance against the Browns, who are trying to avoid a franchise-record 12th consecutive road loss. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to miss his fifth straight game, putting Felix Jones in line for another start. Browns CB Joe Haden (oblique) missed practice Thursday and is a game-time decision for Sunday’s contest. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
New York Jets at St. Louis (-3.5, 38.5)
New York is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards and has been held to 10 points or fewer in four of its six losses. Mark Sanchez has thrown nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns (10) and went just 9-of-22 for 124 yards and a pick in the 28-7 loss at Seattle last week. Steven Jackson, who rushed over 100 yards last week in San Francisco, could have a big day against a New York defense that ranks 30th against the run. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.
Jacksonville at Houston (-15, 40.5)
The Texans have rebounded from their only loss of the season with a vengeance, winning three straight while allowing just one touchdown and outscoring their opponents 77-28. Since defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Jacksonville has given its fans little to cheer about, going 0-6 while scoring more than 15 points only once. Houston prevailed 27-7 in Week 2 against the Jags, who gained a franchise-low 117 yards in the loss. But surprisingly, Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
Cincinnati at Kansas City (3.5, 43.5)
The quarterback carrousel continues for the Chiefs, who are forced to play Matt Cassel for a third straight game while Brady Quinn recovers from a concussion. The Chiefs can’t score regardless of who is under center (16.2 ppg – 30th) and compound the issue by having the worst turnover differential in the league (-20). The only good news from Monday's loss to the Steelers was that Kansas City held a lead in regulation for the first time – ending the league’s longest streak of futility since 1929. The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending Super Bowl-champion New York Giants last week but have a few injury issues on defense. Standout rookie free agent LB Vontaze Burfict, who is second on the team with 62 tackles, is questionable due to an elbow injury. CB Nate Clements (knee) and S Reggie Nelson (hamstring) are also questionable.
New Orleans at Oakland (4.5, 54.5)
The Saints’ offense could be in for another big day Sunday when it visits Oakland. Drew Brees has owned the Raiders, passing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against Oakland – all wins. The Raiders’ stop unit has surrendered 97 points over the last two weeks and is now allowing a league-worst 31.6 points per game. Running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are both dealing with high ankle sprains and are questionable. The Saints have won 13 straight November games and have covered in five of their last six overall.
San Diego at Denver (-8.5, 48.5)
The Broncos posted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history when they rallied from a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Chargers 35-24 at San Diego earlier in the season. The Chargers turned the ball over six times in the game, five of those coming in the second half. With Peyton Manning back in Pro Bowl form, Denver has won four straight and could put a stranglehold on the division title if it makes it five in row on Sunday. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Indianapolis at New England (-9.5, 54.5)
The Colts are 5-1 since head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. However, Indianapolis does have a few key injuries to deal with this week. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in this week. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring average at 33.2 points, the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (3.5, 40)
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win against Kansas City with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out against the Ravens. Veteran signal-caller Byron Leftwich, who hasn’t started a game since 2009, has been named Big Ben's replacement. While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the best secondary in the league. Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games.
Chicago at San Francisco (OFF)
Off-field news has dominated the headlines leading up to this Monday night clash. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of their respective games last week with concussions and on Thursday news broke that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. Sportsbooks have been keeping their lines off the board, waiting for an update on the extent of the injuries to both starting QBs before making a decision. Cutler was officially ruled out of action by the team Friday afternoon, which means Jason Campbell will be under center. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Week 11 Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Following a slew of underdog covers through the first half of the season, favorites are starting to cash the last few weeks. Road favorites have improved to 24-27 ATS on the season, while posting a 7-4 ATS mark the last two weeks. Five teams are laying points on the highway in Week 11, including Baltimore on Sunday night at Pittsburgh. We'll take a look at the four 'chalk' squads playing during the day, starting with Green Bay in a divisional showdown.
Packers (-3½, 52) at Lions
Detroit is struggling to stay in the Wild Card race, just one season after making the playoffs. The Lions attempt to reach the .500 mark with a victory over the Packers, coming off a road favorite loss at Minnesota last week. The defeat snapped a four-game ATS hot streak for Jim Schwartz's club, as the Lions look to beat Green Bay for just the second time in the last 11 matchups.
Green Bay is fresh off a bye week, while going for its fifth consecutive victory after beating its last four opponents by at least nine points. The Packers' offense is picking things up recently by cashing the 'over' in five of the last six contests, as Green Bay has topped the 27-point mark five times in this stretch. Mike McCarthy's team has covered just one of three times as a road favorite, but beat the Rams in Week 7 as four-point 'chalk,' 30-20.
Detroit is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Lions have cashed just once in three contests at Ford Field. In last Sunday's setback at Minnesota, the Lions racked up 329 yards through the air, but never got within a touchdown in a 34-24 loss. Detroit has beaten just one team that currently sits above .500 (Seattle), while both losses to upper-tier NFC teams (Chicago and San Francisco) have come on the highway.
Buccaneers (-1½, 48½) at Panthers
Carolina was predicted to make moves inside the NFC South this season, while the jury was out on Tampa Bay. Following a slow start, the Bucs overcame several close losses to put together a three-game winning streak and forge a 5-4 record. Meanwhile, the Panthers can't seem to get any momentum going, while suffering five losses of six points or less.
The latest disappointment for Carolina came in a 36-14 home rout at the hands of red-hot Denver, the second loss at Bank of America Stadium of at least three touchdowns. The Panthers have scored 14 points or less five times this season, including a 10-point effort in a season-opening loss at Tampa Bay as short road favorites. Carolina limited Tampa Bay to 258 yards in that loss, but the Panthers rushed for just 10 yards on 13 carries.
Tampa Bay's offense has blown up recently, scoring 34 points or more in four of the previous five contests. The Bucs continue to make backers happy, owning a 7-2 ATS record, while cashing the 'over' in six straight games. Most of Tampa Bay's success came early in the underdog role, but the Bucs have compiled a 2-1 ATS record as a favorite.
Bengals (-3½, 43½) at Chiefs
Kansas City is likely not going to be favored the rest of the season, but managed a cover as a 12 ½-point underdog at Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Chiefs actually took the lead for the first time all season at Heinz Field, but couldn't hold onto a 10-0 advantage to suffer their sixth straight defeat. The Bengals finally found the win column after four straight losses, as Cincinnati put together its most complete effort of the season.
Marvin Lewis' team avoided an 0-3 homestand after defeats to the Steelers and Broncos by dominating the Giants, 31-13 as 3½-point 'dogs. Andy Dalton finished a yard shy of 200, but tossed four touchdowns to pick up Cincinnati's first cover at Paul Brown Stadium this season. The Bengals are 0-2 on the road inside the AFC North, but Cincinnati has won both games outside its division against Washington and Jacksonville.
There are not many positives when it comes to the Chiefs, as Kansas City's offense has failed to bust the 16-point mark in each of its last five games (all losses). Two of Kansas City's three covers this season came against AFC North opponents, including a 9-6 defeat to Baltimore as six-point home 'dogs. The Chiefs have won two of the last three home meetings with the Bengals, but Cincinnati claimed the last two matchups in 2008 and 2009.
Saints (-4½, 54½) at Raiders
Oakland returns to the Black Hole after getting a black hole blown through them at Baltimore, 55-20 last Sunday. The Raiders have given up a whopping 97 points the last two weeks as they face a Saints' club that is averaging nearly 28 points per game. New Orleans scores plenty of points, but it also allows points at the same frantic rate.
The Saints were the first team to solve the Falcons, handing Atlanta its first defeat of the season last Sunday, 31-27 as one-point underdogs. New Orleans still has an outside shot at returning to the postseason, while searching for its first three-game winning streak of the season. Joe Vitt's club is just 6-10 ATS the last 16 opportunities as a road favorite, including a 1-1 ATS mark this season.
The Raiders will be without running back Darren McFadden (ankle), while going for just their second home cover in five tries. Oakland failed to cash in three chances as a home favorite, but won outright in its lone instance when receiving points at O.Co Coliseum against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Dennis Allen's team hasn't seen a total above 50 all season, as the Raiders finished 'under' the total last time they saw a number in this range (vs. New England last September).
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We got all kinds of quarterback issues this week that has affected several lines this week ranging from concussions to Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith to Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder. Smith is expected to start for the 49ers (-6) Monday night against the Bears, but the other three are listed as OUT.
The big game changer of all has been Roethlisberger. The Steelers were opened as four-point home favorites against their main rival -- the Ravens -- before they played their Monday night game against the Chiefs. When the sports books opened the game back up on Tuesday, the Ravens were a 1½-point favorite, a large adjustment for a starting quarterback in the league. By Wednesday afternoon, between a combination of Ravens bets and air moves by the bookmakers, the Ravens had been moved all the way up to -3 ½.
That is a massive move for one player. Early last season we figured that Peyton Manning was worth about nine points to the Colts, which is the highest point value ever associated with a player towards the spread.
Byron Leftwich will be the starter for the Steelers. It will be his first start since 2009. He has lost his past seven starts dating back to 2006 with the Jaguars. While Leftwich may be a little rusty, this rivalry doesn’t seem to care about who is playing. Six of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have been won by a field goal.
However, Roethlisberger’s impact is huge in this rivalry. The Steelers have lost all four games against the Ravens that he has missed, three of them by a field goal and the other by six points.
Roethlisberger being out also affected the total which dropped from 42½ to 40.
The Redskins opened as three-point favorites with the expectation that Vick wouldn’t play and that number has been driven up to -3.5. Eagles fans had been yelling for back-up Nick Foles to replace Vick all season. Last week against the Cowboys, they got their wish. He wasn’t too bad, but he wasn’t much better than Vick, either.
-The Packers are three-point favorites at Detroit. The side and total hasn’t moved all week.
The Falcons opened as 9-point home favorites against the reeling Cardinals, who have lost five straight games. The game is up to -9½.
For some reason, we keep believing this will be the week Cam Newton comes up big, but every week, we seem to have another bad loss, whether it’s losing by a big score or losing because of late Newton mishaps. The red-hot Bucs opened as two-point road favorites at Carolina and Panthers money dropped the number to -1.
-The Cowboys have been bet up from the opener of -7 to -7½ for their home game against the Browns.
Just when we thought the Jets were getting better after three straight covers, ending with an almost overtime win at New England, they have gone the other way and have been outscored 58-16 in their past two games. The Rams opened as three-point home favorites and have been bet up to -3½ at several books. Despite each team only having three wins, the Rams have been much more impressive this season.
The Patriots are laying a big number (-9) at home this week against the Colts, but no one has touched it yet. The Patriots haven’t covered any game this season when favored by more than seven points, and the Colts look to be much better right now than those teams the Pats couldn’t put away -- Cardinals, Jets, and Bills.
We just saw the Jaguars cover the big number at Green Bay, and now they get +14½ at Houston this week. The Texans opened as 15½-point favorites, but sharp money jumped all over it with the feeling that two touchdowns is just too many for any team to cover. The Texans have won and covered all three of their double-digit favorite spreads this season.
The Bengals, fresh off ending a four-game losing streak, opened as 3½-point favorites at Kansas City. Chiefs money has come in dropping the price to +3½ (-120).
The Saints are 4½-point favorites at Oakland. The game hasn’t been touched yet, but expect the move to come on Oakland.
The Broncos opened as eight-point home favorites against the Chargers, their highest spread of the season. The Broncos rating has been climbing every week as it looks like their defense, offense and special teams are all in synch. The number dropped to 7½, but has been bet back up to the opener.
Packers at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (3, 52)
The Green Bay Packers entered their bye as one of the league's hottest teams and came out of it having inched closer to the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. The Packers will look to ride the momentum as they seek their fifth consecutive win against the host Detroit Lions on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers set an absurdly high standard in piloting Green Bay to a 15-1 mark in 2011-12, but his stellar play during the winning streak has mirrored that of his MVP season. A loss could deliver a fatal blow to the postseason hopes of the Lions, who are in the cellar of the only division that features three teams at least two games over .500. The Packers have also owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings.
LINE: Packers -3, O/U 52.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (6-3): Rodgers has thrown for 15 touchdowns and one interception in the last four games despite missing his favorite two targets in the latter two. James Jones and second-year standout Randall Cobb have elevated their games in the absences of injured wideouts Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, who combined for 24 scores last season. Jones is tied for second in the league with eight TD receptions and Cobb has five scores in the last three games. Cobb also contributed to a rushing attack that produced a season-high 176 yards in a 31-17 win over Arizona prior to the bye. Linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the team with nine sacks, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
ABOUT THE LIONS (4-5): Detroit continued a troubling season-long trend of falling behind early and having to play catch-up in last week's 34-24 loss in Minnesota that halted a two-game winning streak. Matthew Stafford threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, but each score came after the Lions fell into a 16-3 hole early in the third quarter. Calvin Johnson, who has been bothered by a sore knee, came to life with 11 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown but has only found the end zone twice after finishing second in the NFL with 16 TD receptions last season. A string of early deficits has contributed to the dramatic inconsistency in the running game, which managed a meager 60 yards against the Vikings after amassing 149 yards and four TDs the previous week.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers’ last six games overall.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Lions’ last 11 games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Rodgers is the first quarterback in league history to throw 25 TD passes in the first nine games in back-to-back seasons.
2. Johnson had a career-high 244 yards and a TD on 11 catches in a 45-41 loss at Green Bay on Jan. 1, a game Rodgers sat out.
3. The Lions play five of their last seven at home but they have to face conference leaders Houston (8-1) and Atlanta (8-1) along with Chicago (7-2). They also play at Green Bay next month.
Colts at Patriots: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5, 54.5)
Winners of four straight, the Indianapolis Colts take a step up in competition when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a marquee matchup on Sunday. Led by rookie Andrew Luck and inspired by their coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling leukemia, the Colts have surprisingly become a legitimate playoff contender.
The Patriots continue to roll on offense. Tom Brady has thrown at least one touchdown pass in his last 41 games and New England has added a potent ground game ranked fourth in the NFL. But the Patriots continue to struggle on defense, leaving the door open for some anxious moments late in games.
LINE: Patriots -9.5, O/U 54.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under sunny skies. Wind won’t be a factor.
ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): All four of Indianapolis’ victories in its current winning streak have come against teams who currently sport sub-.500 records. The Colts are 5-1 since Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. The players and even a cheerleader have shaved their heads in support of the coach. Luck has rushed for five scores and thrown 10 TD passes for the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense. The favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year admits to being a longtime fan of Brady and is eager for his chance in one of the league’s top rivalries. Indianapolis does have several injuries. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in the week.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): New England has won the past two games in the series but it is going to have to straighten out things on defense. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring by averaging 33.2 points., the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. Last week, lowly Buffalo scored 31 points and had the ball in the final minute looking to pull off the upset before Devin McCourty picked off a pass by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone. Still, New England has won three straight overall and is in firm control of first place in the AFC East Division.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts’ last four games overall.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in New England.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brady needs two TD passes to reach 20 for the 10th time in his career.
2. Pats tight end Aaron Hernandez was scratched from last week’s game and is questionable with a nagging ankle injury.
3. DB Robert Mathis is expected to play after missing the past two games for the Colts.
Ravens at Steelers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (3.5, 40)
The Baltimore Ravens finally put together a complete performance last week, showing just how explosive they can be in all three phases in a demolition of the Oakland Raiders. The rival Pittsburgh Steelers will provide a stiffer test defensively but might not be up to par on the other side of the ball. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win with a shoulder injury and is out for Sunday. Roethlisberger also has a partially dislocated rib and could be sidelined multiple weeks, leaving the ball in Byron Leftwich’s hands.
While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the No. 1 secondary in the league. Baltimore is trying to open up a two-game lead on Pittsburgh in the AFC North while pushing its winning streak in the series to three straight.
LINE: Ravens -3.5, O/U 40.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-2): Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The beleaguered defense even forced three turnovers. That defense, which had once been the heart and soul of the team, will be glad to not have Roethlisberger around. The Ravens are 26th in opposing passing yards and allowed Carson Palmer to throw for 368 last week. The run defense is not much better but could get a break as well if Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) is out or limited. Flacco threw for 300 yards in the trip to Heinz Field last season, including a 26-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with eight seconds left that gave Baltimore a 23-20 victory.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-3): Leftwich has not started a game since he was with Tampa Bay in September 2009, but he came on in relief of Roethlisberger on Monday and at least got a chance to shake off some rust, going 7-of-14 for 73 yards. Roethlisberger’s big concern is the rib, which doctors are worried could cut his aorta if jostled. Leftwich will lean on a defense that has carried the team back into contention in four straight wins. That unit has held Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Matt Cassel to an average of 140.3 yards passing in the last four weeks. Safety Ryan Clark has been limited at practice this week due to a concussion and is listed as questionable for Sunday.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers’ last four games overall.
* Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four November games.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in Ravens’ last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Ravens have won 11 straight regular-season games against the AFC North
2. The Steelers are 4-0 at home this season and have won seven straight overall at Heinz Field since falling to Baltimore on Nov. 6, 2011.
3. Ravens KR Jacoby Jones became the first player in team history to return two kickoffs for touchdowns in the same season with a 105-yard return last week.
Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Recap
The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 ledger last week and once again, total players were helped with some late bursts, which of course created bad beats. For those you who had the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Minnesota and Dallas-Philadelphia matchups, we apologize. The two games saw 42 and 44 points posted in the second-half, including 32 and 27 respectively in the final quarter. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 75-71-1.
Under the Lights – Literally!
This past Thursday, we thought the Buffalo-Miami game had a good chance to go ‘over’ after the Bills built a 13-7 lead over the Dolphins in the first quarter. The game was still on a good pace at halftime (19-7) but only seven points were scored in the second-half and the combined 33 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 45 ½. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has now gone 23-9 (72%) this season in primetime games. Looking at the games this Sunday (Pittsburgh-Baltimore) and Monday (San Francisco-Chicago), it’s safe to say that it would be surprising to see shootouts, especially when two of the four teams will be starting backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it’s better to roll with the trend than try to buck it!
Line Moves
The smart and public money went 2-0 last week with their early bets, both tickets coming in the SNF and MNF matchups. (**) Quarterback injuries have certainly helped this week’s moves, which have all gone down. Does nobody like to bet ‘over’ tickets anymore?
Here are the early moves at CRIS:
Philadelphia at Washington: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44½
Arizona at Atlanta: Line opened 45½ and dropped to 44
Jacksonville at Houston: Line opened at 42½ and dropped to 40½
San Diego at Denver: Line opened at 50½ and dropped to 48½
Baltimore at Pittsburgh : Line opened at 45½ and dropped to 40
Divisional Rematches
On the season, when opponents meet in their second divisional game, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 (71%) in these contests. Last week, gamblers following the trend watched the Bills and Patriots play to another shootout. They also got lucky with the Detroit-Minnesota game (see above). This Sunday, there are three rematches on tap and two of them watched the ‘under’ cash in the first go ‘round.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers 16-10 in Week 1 and the closing total of 45 ½ was never threatened. We fast forward 10 weeks and the total is higher (48) for the rematch, but why? For starters, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and it’s getting scores from all over. In last week’s 34-24 victory over San Diego, the Bucs got a pick-six and a blocked punt return. Carolina has been held to 14 or less in five of its nine games, which should make you a little hesitant to back the ‘over.’ However, the Bucs defense (401 YPG) is the second-worst in the league and it’s banged-up with injuries too. If Cam Newton can’t produce against this unit, then Carolina has big problems.
Jacksonville at Houston: This number has dropped (see above) and you can understand why when you look at the style of Houston. The Texans’ defense is the second-best in the league and the offense grinds you down, which was clearly shown in Houston’s 27-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 2. It’s hard to argue for the Jaguars offense but they’ve played better on the road, averaging 20.8 points per game. Getting to that number won’t be easy but the Texans could be looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day battle at Detroit. Including this year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight between these teams.
San Diego at Denver: The Broncos have been great bets for the betting public lately (4-0 SU/ATS) and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this span. The team hasn’t been held under 31 points during this span, and that includes their 35-24 road win over San Diego on MNF in Week 6. The number of points was a little misleading since turnovers created some short tracks and three touchdowns as well. The Chargers are one tough team to figure out and once again, they’ll probably be the best team not to make the playoffs. As much as you want to rip Phillip Rivers (and he deserves it), this guy puts up big numbers in Colorado. Since taking over in 2006, the Chargers have scored 35, 41, 38, 32, 33 and 29 points with Rivers under center. The Bolts are 5-1 in those games and the one loss came by one point.
Something has to give!
The total on the Patriots-Colts opened at 53 ½ and was pushed up to 54. New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2-1 on the season and that includes four consecutive ‘under’ tickets. A large reason for the low-scoring affairs is the Colts defense, which has given up 13, 13, 20 and 10 the past four weeks. Let’s be clear that those numbers came against two rookie QBs (Browns, Dolphins) and two inconsistent offenses in the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of a game against Green Bay in Week 5, the Colts haven’t come close to facing an attack similar to the Patriots. The Packers put up 27 points in that contest and you figure New England will at least get to that number. However, if Indianapolis has any realistic shot to win this game then you would expect them to milk the clock with rookie QB Andrew Luck. While we agree with most pundits that Luck is going to be great, he’s had trouble with tossing interceptions (7) on the road and those are daggers for ‘over’ bets.
Fearless Predictions
If it wasn’t for Seattle’s prolific offense, we would’ve had the sweep. Still, we’ll take the profits ($190) and look to build on the positive bankroll ($180). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Carolina 48
Best Under: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 40
Best Team Total: Over Chargers 20½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Tampa Bay-Carolina
Over 43½ Green Bay-Detroit
Under 48 N.Y. Jets-St. Louis