NFL Odds: Week 2 Opening Line Report
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
From the way the commentators had to pick their jaws up off the desk in order to say something, you’d think football fans just witnessed a game ripe for Ripley’s Believe It Or Not.
The Washington Redskins’ 40-32 win over the New Orleans Saints Sunday was a stunner – the 8-point spread tells us so. But, it wasn’t so much the final score that caught people off guard. It was the performance of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, who passed for 320 yards, two touchdowns and tacked on 42 yards rushing in the win.
Griffin was the biggest star of Week 1, flooding Twitter with #RG3 and sending fantasy footballers scrambling for the waiver wire. The Redskins’ effort also forced oddsmakers to rethink Washington’s Week 2 odds. The Redskins opened as 3-point road favorites against the St. Louis Rams with a total of 45.5 next Sunday.
“Washington is another ‘hip’ go-to team for players, especially after the Skins' big win,” Peter Korner of The Sports Club, a Las Vegas-based oddsmaking service, told Covers.com. “We're a good field goal higher with the total (48) and respect the Rams’ defense. But this looks like another freewheeling game and we don't expect a defensive tilt.”
Here’s a look at the opening odds for some of Week 2’s biggest matchups:
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 49)
The NFC pecking order was given a good shake as the San Francisco 49ers put the Packers in their place, squeezing the cheese 30-22 in Week 1. The Sports Club sent out Green Bay -7, confident that the Packers would bounce back in a mid-week game at home. Some online books opened as low as -4 but quickly were forced to -5.5 with money on the fave.
“We're pretty sure Packers backers will just wait until game day and see how low this line will go before getting on board,” says Korner. “If you set this low to open, expect to be rooting for the Bears on Thursday.”
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 41.5)
Did we underestimate the Jets or overestimate the Bills? New York put a poor preseason behind it and hung 48 points against a Buffalo defense that was supposed to be good. Pittsburgh appeared to be pulling out another Ben Roethlisberger last-minute comeback Sunday night, but instead tossed a pick-6 to the delight of over bettors.
“We expect a bounce-back game by the Steelers with their home opener but the Jets infused some self confidence with their big Week 1 win,” says Korner, who sent out Pittsburgh -5. “We're lower than the current line and expect J-E-T-S money come the weekend. “
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 46.5)
Ah, the “Handshake Bowl”. The media is already hyping up the bad blood between Lions head coach Jim Schwartz and Niners coach Jim Harbaugh, who got a little excited after a 25-19 win over Detroit last season and shook his counterpart's hand the same way the Hulk smashes a car.
This Sunday Night Football showdown opened as high as San Francisco -7, which has been bet off the key number, and the total opened at 46.5. The Sports Club sent out 47 points and expects a shootout between Detroit’s QB-WR combo and the 49ers' new-look pass attack.
NFL Betting Preview: Kansas City at Buffalo
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Kansas City at Buffalo
Both Kansas City and Buffalo were embarrassed in Week 1. The Bills were trounced by the Jet 48-28. Disappointment abounds, especially from a defense that was expected to be much improved. With the addition of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, plus the return of a healthy Kyle Williams, the defensive line was supposed to drastically improve the stop unit as a whole. One game obviously doesn’t make a season but they’ll need to show drastic improvement as the Chiefs actually have more offensive weapons. Offensively, Ryan Fitzpatrick was once again making poor decisions and turning the ball over. The unit also lost two key links in running back Fred Jackson and wide receiver Dave Nelson. In addition, wide receiver Stevie Johnson continues to be hampered by a groin injury.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs were involved in their own debacle last week losing to the Falcons at home, 40-24. Much like the Bills, KC’s defense was picked apart by Matt Ryan. However, it’s important to note the Chiefs were extremely undermanned. Game changing linebacker Tamba Hali missed the contest due to an NFL imposed suspension. In addition, they’re missing their best cornerback in Brandon Flowers. Hali will definitely be back this week, while they’re hoping to get Flowers back as well. In addition, it makes sense that key players like Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry needed to get their feet wet after brutal knee injuries from the 2011 season. Finally, in handicapping Week 2 of the NFL it’s crucial to pay attention in detail to what happened in the marketplace. The Jets were a “bet against” team according to the sharp money with the number pushing from -6 to -2.5 last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons were a “bet on” team taking money against the Chiefs. In summation, Buffalo’s showing was much more troubling than the Chiefs considering the opponent. We’ll side with the points this week.
NFL:Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Kansas City at Buffalo
The Bills provided little hope that the slide which started in week-9 last year is going to come to an end. Spanked 48-28 by the Jets on Sunday the Bills nightmarish skid is now 1-9 (2-8 ATS). So much for the millions spend on their retooled pass-rushing defensive ends Mario Williams, Mark Anderson. Those players combined for zero sacks, one tackle and one pressure allowing Sanchez to throw three touchdown passes. On the other side, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked lost missing receivers and throwing picks (3). Sure he nailed 3 TD's but they all came when Jets laid back after building a 41-7 lead. Maybe, just maybe a home game vs Kansas City will provide Bills the recipe to turn things around. Ryan Fitzpatrick did torch Kansas City for 4 TD's in a 41-7 thrashing of Chiefs last season. But, don't bet the house on it. Bills were hit with some big injuries on the offense end. Fred Jackson will be out for four weeks, wideout David Nelson was lost for season suffering a torn ACL. Good one to ignore but if your hell bend on laying some cash on either of these duds keep these numbers in mind. Bills are 13-26-2 as a home favorite off a road dog loss, 0-2-1 ATS after allowing =>45 points. Chiefs are 3-9 on the road following a home loss as a Dog but a profitable 3-1 ATS as a road dog after allowing => 40 pts the previous game and 5-1 ATS away in week-2 tilts.
Dallas at Seattle
Seattle Seahawks were the talk of preseason going 4-0 SU/ATS posting the league’s top scoring offense (30.5 PPG) and the stingiest defense (11.0 PPG). But, it was all for not as Seahawks fell 20-16 to the Cardinals in the opener. Meanwhile, Cowboys looked good in dispatching Champion Giants 24-17 as Romo put up 307 yards 3 TD's, DeMarco Murray ground out 131 yards while the defense held Manning to 213 yards, 1 TD and the ground game to just 82 rushing yards. As well as Cowboys played in the opener cashing at Quest Field vs. a bruised Seahawk squad could prove difficult. Cowboys have a 2-7-1 ATS skid as favorites of 6 or less, 6-11 ATS slide as a road favorite off a win by 7 or more points, 1-4-1 ATS skid as road fav vs NFC West opponent. Hawks meanwhile head into the game on a 3-1-1 ATS streak as a home dog off a loss of 4 or more points.
NFL Week 2
Bucs (1-0) @ Giants (0-1) — Schiano’s first road game as Bucs’ HC brings him back to New Jersey, where he coached Rutgers for 12 years; both his coordinators coached for Giants, DC Sheridan (’05-’09), OC Sullivan (’04-’11). Much like Green Bay, Giants can’t afford to start year with two home losses; they allowed Dallas to average 9.4 yards/pass attempt in opening loss. Big Blue was only NFL team not to gain 20+ yards on any 1st/2nd down play last week; all three of their explosive plays came on 3rd downs. Bucs held Carolina to 10 yards rushing last week, allowed them to convert only twice on 10 third downs on stormy day. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, but is 3-5 vs spread in last eight, all as underdog. 14 of their last 19 road openers stayed under total, but only one of last four. Average total in last eight series meetings, 24.4, with Giants winning last three by average score of 22-6.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0) — Arizona lost last two visits here, 31-0/47-7; they come in off high after stopping Seattle in red zone at end of 20-16 win in home opener. Looks like Kolb will get start at QB here, after starter Skelton got hurt (high ankle sprain) with Cardinals down 16-13; Kolb then directed winning TD drive. Patriots ran ball for 162 yards last week, passed for 228, unusually good balance for them. Arizona won three of last four road openers, covering all four, after 0-6 skid (1-4-1 vs spread) before that. Redbirds are 9-6-1 vs spread in last 16 tries as an underdog in road openers, with five of last six staying under total. Patriots won last 10 home openers (6-3-1 vs spread), with eight of the ten games going over total; they covered last three home openers that weren’t in Week 1. This is first time since ’00 they host an NFC team in a home opener.
Vikings (1-0) @ Colts (0-1) — Indy’s post-Manning era got off to fast start when defense scored in first 4:00 last week, but they wound up giving up 41 points, NFL-high nine plays of 20+ yards. Colts turned ball over five times, converted just 2 of 10 on 3rd down in rough debut for team with new coach, new QB, new beginning. Vikings rallied to win in OT last week, kicking FGs on four of last five drives, including game-tying 55-yarder. Home team won nine of last ten series games; Vikings lost 31-10/31-28 in two visits here, but Indy had different QB then. Not sure how much these trends mean for them, but Colts are 3-7 in last ten home openers not started by now-departed Manning. Vikes lost six of last eight road openers; since ’88, they’re 1-8 vs spread as favorite in road openers. Four of Indy’s last six home openers went over total; six of Vikings’ last eight road openers stayed under.
Saints (0-1) @ Panthers (0-1) — Takes time to learn Spagnuolo’s defense; New Orleans was riddled by rookie QB RGIII in home opener, giving up 11.5 yards/pass attempt, but they’ve won last four games vs division rival Panthers, scoring 34-30-45 points in last three meetings, winning 34-3/30-27 in last two visits here. Saints are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers (two of five losses were Thursday games)- their last four road openers went over (average total in last five, 59.4). Since ’88, NO is 2-4 vs spread as road favorite in road openers. Panthers ran ball for only 10 yards in opening loss on stormy day in Tampa; Carolina is 4-13 in home openers, 1-7 in last eight, 4-3 vs spread as underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in last five, after under was 10-2 in their first 12. Underdogs are 13-3-1 vs spread in Panthers’ home openers.
Chiefs (0-1) @ Bills (0-1) — Buffalo won four of last five series games, crushing Chiefs 41-7 in Arrowhead LY; KC is making first visit here since ’05- they lost last five trips to Orchard Park by average of 19 points (last win here, ’86). Kansas City lost five of last six road openers, losing 48-3 (+7.5) in Detroit LY; only last 15 years, they’re 4-7 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Buffalo is 4-7 in last 11 season openers, but covered six of last seven; since ’92, they’re 10-5 as favorite in home openers. Both teams gave up 40+ points in losses last week; Chiefs turned ball over three times on 11 plays after missing game-tying FG in 3rd quarter of 40-24 home loss. Bills gave up a TD on offense, one on special teams; none of Jets’ four TD drives was longer than 61 yards. Four of their last six home openers went over the total; five of Chiefs’ last seven road openers stayed under.
Ravens (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0) — Short week for Raven squad that sported a wide open passing game in win over division rivals Monday; they've lost eight of last 11 road openers, including 26-12 debacle at Tennessee LY, after they crushed Steelers 35-7 in opener. Vick threw four picks in dreadful performance Sunday at Cleveland, but drove team 91 yards for win when it mattered most. Eagles won despite losing field position by 14 yards; that doesn't happen whole lot. Baltimore has covered six of last eight as underdog in road opener, which they are here. Average total in last three series games is 29.3. Four of Ravens' last five road openers went over. Philly lost five of its last six home openers, with four of last five staying under total; since ’88, Eagles are 7-10 against spread as favorite in home opener, 2-4-1 as dog.
Raiders (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1) — Very short week and cross country trip for Raiders, who trailed 10-6 Monday night before injury to long snapper pointed game in San Diego's favor. Miami won three in row and nine of last 11 series games, with Raiders losing six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Over last 16 years, Oakland is 5-11 vs spread in Week 1, but they’ve won three of last four road openers, covering four of last five; over is 9-3-1 in its last 13 road openers. Dolphins are 8-30 vs spread in last 38 games as a home favorite; they've lost six in row and eight of last nine home openers, losing last six by average score of 28-18 (0-6 vs spread), with four of last five home openers going over total. Since ’93, Miami is 1-7 vs spread in home openers that were not in Week 1.
Browns (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1) — Cincinnati won last three series games, by 2-10-3 points; four of last six series games were decided by three or less points. Browns lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last two trips here by total of 5 points. Cleveland is 1-5 in last six road openers, after winning four of first seven; favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine road openers, with eight of last 11 going over total. Browns had Eagles down 16-10 after picking Vick off four times in opener last week, but they let him drive 91 yards for winning TD in last 2:00. Short week for Bengals after Monday night’s beating in Baltimore. Cincy lost three of its last four home openers, scoring a dismal 9.3 ppg; they covered just three of last 12 as a favorite in home openers, which they are here. Seven of Cincy’s last nine home openers stayed under total. Cleveland is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog in divisional games.
Texans (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1) — Home teams won eight of last ten series games, with Texans losing five of last seven visits here; Houston is 12-6-1 vs spread as a favorite last 2+ years, 5-2 on road. Jaguars won 17 of 27 (63%) plays on 3rd down at Minnesota last week, but couldn't stop Vikings at end of game and lost in OT. Since '07, Jax is 6-10 vs spread as a home dog, 3-6 in divisional games. Houston won last three road openers (scored 34-30-23 points) after losing five of first seven; they won 30-27 (-3)/23-13 (-3) as favorites in last two road openers, first two times they’ve been favored in one. Seven of their last nine road openers went over the total. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven home openers, winning last two 24-17/16-14; they actually won six of their first seven home openers, are 4-2 as underdogs in a home opener. Under is 11-5-1 in all 17 of their home openers.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Seahawks (0-1) — Seattle won/covered eight of its last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16, but they've lost last three games with Cowboys, all by 10+ points, but all three of those were in Texas. Pokes lost three of last four visits here, with last win 43-39 back in '84. Dallas had four extra days to rest/prepare after winning its opener in Swamp; How many times will ESPN show Romo botching snap on kick in '06 playoff game played here? Home side won last five series games; Dallas is 3-3 here, 1-3 in last four visits, with last win 43-39 in ’04.Since ’88, 2-4 vs spread as dog in Seattle's home openers. Under is 19-5 in their last 24 home openers, 2-3 in last five. Seattle had only one TD on four red zone drives last week, lost 20-16 in Arizona despite 10-yard edge in field position. Under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks’ last 11 home openers.
Redskins (1-0) @ Rams (0-1) — RGIII bandwagon has gotten very crowded very quickly; Rams are team that traded its pick to Washington so they could draft him. Skins averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt last week in Superdome, #1 figure in NFL, but don't forget, Saints are learning new defense and without a head coach. St Louis is 3-2 vs Skins last six years; Rams haven’t held edge over many teams during that span. Redskins won five of last seven visits here. Rams lost last five home openers (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 34-14; they’re 0-4-1 vs spread last five times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. St Louis played better defense in Detroit last week but couldn't finish job. Washington DC Haslett was interim coach of Rams after Scott Linehan was fired in ‘08. Under is 8-3-1 in Skins’ last dozen road openers; over is 9-5-1 in Rams’ last 15 home openers.
Jets (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1) — Last two seasons, Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss; they allowed 8.6 yds/pass attempt last week-- Sanchez is no Manning. Remember Tebow beat Steelers with Mile High TD in OT in LY’s playoffs; that said, Jets are 4-17 vs Steelers, with last four meetings all decided by 5 or less points, and last two Pitt wins coming in playoff games. Jets’ win here in ’10 was their only one in nine visits. Gang Green is 8-4 in last 12 road openers, 5-1 vs spread in last six, covering last four games as an underdog in road openers.. Pitt won last nine home openers (8-1 vs spread, covering last seven), allowing 10-9-0 points in last three; they upset Falcons in '10 home opener, even with Big Ben suspended. Steelers are 6-3 vs spread in home openers that aren’t in Week 1. Under is 8-5 in Jets’ last 13 road openers, 3-0 in Steelers’ last three home openers.
Titans (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0) — Short week for San Diego after win in Monday night opener in Oakland, when they benefitted from Oakland losing its snapper on punts/kicks; Chargers won eight in row over old AFL rivals, with last loss in Astrodome 20 years ago. Titans lost last five visits here by average score of 29-14; their last win here was in ’90. Tennessee won three of last five road openers (4-1 vs spread), with only non-cover 16-14 loss (-1) at Jax LY; dogs covered all five of those games. San Diego is 4-5 in last nine home openers (3-6 vs spread), despite being favored in seven of those nine games. Bolts are 4-10 vs spread last 14 times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. 13 of Titans’ last 15 road openers stayed under total, including last five in row; seven of Bolts’ last nine home openers went over. Since '04, Chargers are 32-22-2 as home favorites. since '06, Tennessee is 18-10-1 vs spread as a road underdog.
Lions (1-0) @ 49ers (1-0) — Head coaches almost had post-game skirmish after 49ers’ 25-19 win at Ford Field LY, Niners’ 8th series win in row, and 13th in last 14 meetings. 49ers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine home openers, 3-0-1 in last four as favorite-- they’re 5-2 in last seven SU. 49ers outrushed Green Bay 186-45 in impressive win at Lambeau last week; they're +29 in turnovers in 17 regular season games under Harbaugh. This year is only second time in last 8 years Niners' home opener is non-divisional game. Detroit won last week, even though they had -3 turnover ratio, first time they did that since 1972. Lions are 3-8 in last 11 road openers; since ’88, they’re 4-2 vs spread in as an underdog in road openers. Since '08, 49ers are 16-6-1 vs spread as favorites at The Stick. Six of Detroit’s last seven road openers went over total. Detroit is 11-6-2 as a non-divisional underdog under Schwartz.
Broncos (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0) — Manning looked lot like old self last week, as Denver averaged 8.6 yards/pass attempt and had three TD drives of 80+ yards. Since 2007, Falcons are 19-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite; since '05, they've covered 19 of 28 games vs AFC opponents. Since '06, Manning is 7-2 as road underdog. Denver won seven of last eight series meetings, with average total in last nine 63.6- they’ve won last four visits here, but Fox lost last three visits here with Carolina, by 17-8-21 points-- he also lost five of last seven road openers. Denver is 3-5 in its last eight road openers, with under 7-2-1 in its last ten. Manning won nine of his last 11 road openers, with LY obviously not counting, since he didn’t play. Atlanta won/covered eight of last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons’ last 11 home openers.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 2
By Covers.com
Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 2's action.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-7, 44)
The Buccaneers haven’t defeated the Giants since Nov. 24, 2003. Tampa is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New York and the teams have played under the total in seven straight matchups.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (1, 51)
The Saints have taken the last four meetings with the Panthers. The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and the road team is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 games head-to-head.
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48)
The Cardinals haven’t picked up a victory over the Patriots since the 1991 campaign, dropping the last five meetings. Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last four contests versus New England.
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (1, 44.5)
Indianapolis has taken the last three games in the series and Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 46.5)
Is this spread too good to be true after Baltimore’s convincing win over Cincinnati last week? The Eagles barely slipped past the Browns last week and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 2 games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 44.5)
C.J. Spiller will get the majority of the carries for the Bills after Fred Jackson suffered a knee injury in their blowout loss to the Jets in Week 1. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with Buffalo.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 38.5)
The Bengals have won three straight over the Browns but the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (7, 41.5)
The Texans are riding a three-game winning streak over the Jaguars. Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (1, 38.5)
The Dolphins have owned the Raiders in recent years, taking six of the last seven games against the black and silver. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (3, 41.5)
Cowboys QB Tony Romo returns to the site of his infamous playoff gaffe for the first time since his botched hold in the 2007 playoffs. The good news for Dallas bettors is that the squad is 5-1 ATS in its last six against Seatte.
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (3, 45.5)
The Redskins are just 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rams, but it could be a different story with RG3 under center on Sunday. St. Louis is 4-0-1 O/U in its last five September contests.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 41.5)
Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis left their Week 1 game against the Bills with a minor head injury and has since been diagnosed with a mild concussion. However, he's expected to play on Sunday. New York needs him because the Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-6, 43)
The Chargers have won eight straight over the Titans. Tennessee’s last victory over San Diego was way back in 1992. The Titans have played under the total in nine of their last 11 games overall.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 46.5)
Detroit is winless in its last eight contests with San Francisco. The teams played under the total in all eight of those previous meetings.
Week 2 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Starting the NFL season at 0-2 is usually bad news for teams that want to qualify for the playoffs. Back in 2007, the Giants lost their first two games and won the Super Bowl against the previously unbeaten Patriots, while three teams in 2008 made the postseason after beginning 0-2. However, those are the exceptions as many clubs try to get on track this Sunday. Four games involve teams that are each 0-1, including two playoff clubs from last season (Saints and Bengals). We'll start in Buffalo with a pair of squads that each lost by double-digits last week.
Chiefs at Bills (-3, 45)
The expectations were raised for Buffalo in the preseason following the signing of defensive end Mario Williams and a healthy team returning. However, the Bills were knocked down early in a 48-28 drubbing to the Jets as three-point road underdogs, as Buffalo has won just one game since last Halloween (including preseason). The Chiefs head to Orchard Park following a 40-24 loss to the Falcons as short home 'dogs, the fifth consecutive opening day loss for Romeo Crennel, dating back to his time in Cleveland.
Kansas City outgained Atlanta, 393-376, but turned the ball over three times, while allowing three touchdown passes by Matt Ryan. The Chiefs were plagued by the three turnovers, all from quarterback Matt Cassel, while getting outscored 23-7 after the game was tied at 17-17 late in the first half. Kansas City cashed in four of five opportunities as a single-digit road underdog last season, including outright victories at Chicago, Denver, and Oakland.
The Bills were pretty much even in first downs and yardage against New York, but the Jets picked up a pair of touchdowns via defense and special teams. Buffalo will likely be without top running back Fred Jackson, who suffered a knee injury after six carries. Former Clemson standout C.J. Spiller filled in with 169 yards, including a 56-yard touchdown scamper. The Bills look for another blowout of the Chiefs after destroying Kansas City in last season's opener, 41-7 as 3½-point 'dogs.
Saints (-2½, 51½) at Panthers
Both these NFC South rivals were tripped up in the favorite role in Week 1, as New Orleans heads to Charlotte going for its fifth straight win over the Panthers. The Saints allowed 459 yards of offense to Robert Griffin III and the Redskins in a 40-32 loss at the Superdome as eight-point favorites, the first home defeat (both SU and ATS) since Week 17 of 2010. The Panthers couldn't get any offense going at Tampa Bay, dropping a 16-10 decision as three-point 'chalk,' as Carolina rushed for just 10 yards on 13 carries.
New Orleans continues to play without head coach Sean Payton, who is suspended the entire season due to the "Bountygate" scandal. The Saints' defense looked disjointed in the opener, but New Orleans comes into Sunday's matchup owning a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record inside the NFC South last season. The history between these two teams is tough to gauge since they have met in Week 17 five times since 2004 in meaningless games. In 2011, the Saints swept the season series from the Panthers, including a 30-27 victory as six-point favorites last October.
The Panthers were an exciting team last season with Cam Newton throwing the ball all over the field, but Carolina won just six games. Since starting 2011 with a 5-2 ATS record, the Panthers are just 4-6 ATS, including the loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Expect a high-scoring game from Carolina this week, as the Panthers cashed the 'over' four of five times last season after scoring 21 points or less.
Raiders (-2½, 38½) at Dolphins
Oakland's offense was disappointing in Monday night's home defeat to San Diego, scoring just one touchdown in a 22-14 setback as short favorites. The Raiders now travel cross-country to take the Dolphins, who are also struggling to find a rhythm offensively after getting blown out at Houston, 30-10. Miami failed to cash as 13-point underdogs, while the lone touchdown came on a Marcus Thigpen 72-yard punt return for a score in the third quarter.
The Dolphins turn to Ryan Tannehill once again under center, as the rookie threw three interceptions against the Texans, leading to a pair of Houston touchdowns. After going 2-12 SU from 2009 through midway 2011, Miami has won four of its last five games at Sun Life Stadium, including a 34-13 rout of the Raiders. In that victory, the Dolphins rushed for 209 yards, but Miami will be without third-down running back Daniel Thomas, who suffered a concussion last week.
The Silver and Black held the Chargers to five field goals on Monday, but Oakland also had several special teams' mishaps that gave San Diego excellent field position. The Raiders own a dreadful 1-12 ATS mark since 2005 as a favorite off a loss, while laying points on the highway for the first time in seven seasons.
Browns at Bengals (-7, 38½)
The battle of Ohio takes place at Paul Brown Stadium as Cincinnati attempts to put Monday night's ugly loss at Baltimore behind them. The Bengals were blown out by last season's AFC runner-up, 44-13, as the Ravens scored the final 27 points of the game. The Browns had an excellent opportunity to knock off the Eagles as nine-point home underdogs, but Michael Vick's late touchdown pass gave Philadelphia a 17-16 victory.
Cleveland has showcased five different starting quarterbacks the last five opening days, as Brandon Weeden barely impressed by putting up a quarterback rating of 5.4 The former Oklahoma State standout tossed four interceptions, while the Browns' defense picked off Vick four times. In spite of the loss, the Browns improved to 7-1 ATS in the last eight games since November, while posting a 4-0 ATS record on the road.
Cincinnati has lost nine of its past 13 divisional contests, as the Bengals are 4-8-1 ATS in this stretch. The Bengals look to sure up their pass defense after Joe Flacco threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns in Monday's rout. Since 2009, Marvin Lewis' team is just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite, including a non-cover against Cleveland last season in a 23-20 win as 6½-point 'chalk.'
NFL Betting Preview: Baltimore at Philadelphia
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
Baltimore at Philadelphia
The Eagles are the situational play here. We've seen it in many sports, when things go your way, and you get the bounces, the following game they tend to revert to the norm. The Ravens certainly had everything go well for them against Cincinnati benefitting from three turnovers and one of them a 31-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Their energy level was sky high hosting the first Monday Night Football game of the season and now must play on the road with a short work week at Philadelphia. The Eagles will have an extra day to prepare and will use that time to correct the Week 1 mistakes that were glaringly obvious to any handicapper. Aside from five turnovers, they ran an amazing 88 plays at Cleveland. The Browns only had 59 snaps. Over the last 30 years, I can't ever remember seeing such a large margin. The Eagles had 25 first downs compared to the Browns’ 12. Philadelphia dominated the game but not on the scoreboard, winning by just by a single point. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin left the game with a hip injury and has yet to practice this week, however they have multiple weapons and without a doubt Michael Vick will not get hit at home 11 times.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
One of the biggest moves this week was the total in the Ravens-Eagles game that opened at 43½ and rose to as high as 47 on Tuesday before settling at 46½. After watching the Ravens light up the Bengals last week for 44 points on 430 yards of offense, there is a feeling that we may see more of an aerial attack from the Ravens than seen in the past.
Joe Flacco was outstanding in the first half against the Bengals and set the tone by connecting on 12-of-15 passes for 183 yards. He ended the game with 299 yards and two touchdown tosses. We’ve seen Flacco look good at times, and maybe the Bengals aren’t the best barometer, but it appears that John Harbaugh and his staff know that if they want to get to the next level, they’re going to need their quarterback playing with maximum confidence, and the best way to get there is letting him fire away.
But there are two teams playing in this game, and the other team doesn’t look like they’ll be much help contributing in the scoring department, or at least if you go by the Eagles' 17-16 win at Cleveland last week. True, it’s only one game and we shouldn’t overreact to that one performance. But, it was an ugly outing that is hard to ignore.
Michael Vick threw four interceptions and looked as though he was a rookie trying to read NFL defenses. He made up for the poor play when it counted by engineering a 16-play, 91- yard drive for the winning score. But you still have to wonder how many points are in store for not just an offense appearing to struggle, but also one that has to face the physical Ravens defense.
The Vikings-Colts number has been up and down the board like a yo-yo. The Vikings opened up Sunday night as 2½-point road favorites and Colts money dropped it all the way down to pick ‘em. By the time the LVH Super Book regrouped on Monday with the Vikings -1, it stayed there all week until Friday afternoon when Vikings money pushed it back up to -2½.
One of the big changes in perception from one week to the next was the Seahawks, who opened at pick ‘em Sunday night at the LVH for their home opener against the Cowboys. The bets came in quickly on the Cowboys pushing the number all the way to -3 before settling at -3 (-120) where it’s sat still for the last five days.
Last week, before the game at Arizona, bettors were high on rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, who had a spectacular preseason, moving the game five points. After the Arizona loss, the love is all gone. Seattle has one of the better home field advantages in the league, but most are siding with the Cowboys.
The Steelers have dropped from being 6½-point favorites all the way down to -4½. Most of the Jets money has come due to the Steelers injuries that include all their running backs along with James Harrison and Troy Polamalu doubtful for the game. Darrelle Revis will miss the game with a concussion, but no movement has been made since becoming official on Friday. The Steelers have covered their last eight games coming off a loss.
The total in the Jets-Steelers game has risen from 41½ to 42½ on Friday because of the all the key defenders from both teams expected to miss Sunday’s game.
The football betting world has RG3 fever after watching him dismantle the Saints in the Superdome last week. Few teams have done what the Redskins did last week. No opposing team even covered the pointspread in New Orleans last year. The public loved the Saints last week, they lost with them, now they love the Redskins this week, but they’re going to have to pay extra now. The Rams opened as the 2½-point underdog and Redskins money has pushed the game all the up to 3½. A few books don’t want to get off the key number of 3, and have gone as high as 3 (-125), but they’ll all be there soon, because the public won’t touch the Rams and they love RG3.
A good point to be made on Griffin and why he had so much success last week was made by Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White. He said Mike Shanahan had seven weeks to prepare a game plan for Griffin to beat the Saints defense, while the Saints defense had nothing on Griffin or the Redskins offense. Shanahan didn't show all his looks in preseason and the Saints had to make adjustments on the fly. White also said he doesn't expect Griffin to match the type of game he had last week all season. Defenses around the league will catch up to what he does best. Rams coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best defensive minds in the league and has one game film to look at, or one more than the Saints had.
The 49ers opened up as 5½-point home favorites against the Lions on Sunday night and it has risen all the way to -7 as of Friday evening. The rematch of the handshake game should be an intense battle, but with the public living by what they saw last, it’s going to be all 49ers here. The 49ers went into Lambeau field and made Green Bay look like the sloppy 1985 version of the Packers. The public also felt Matt Stafford was fortunate to beat the Rams while throwing key several interceptions, a game which most of the public lost on last week. So it’s an easy choice here, right?
Other than that, all is pretty quiet in the desert. Enjoy Week 2 and good luck!
Ravens at Eagles: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46.5)
With a road game looming against Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, it was hardly a surprise to hear Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh use the term "scary good" in describing the quarterback play. The fact that Harbaugh was speaking of his own signal caller, Joe Flacco, instead of the multi-talented Vick spoke volumes of the season-opening performances of each team. Baltimore will try to make it two straight wins against the Eagles, who narrowly escaped a stunning upset at Cleveland in Week 1.
Baltimore looked like an offensive juggernaut Monday night in dismantling the Cincinnati Bengals 44-13 behind a superb effort from the oft-maligned Flacco, while Vick had to overcome one of the worst games of his career to lift Philadelphia to a 17-16 victory over the Browns. Although both teams have been touted as Super Bowl contenders, the Eagles wilted under similar great expectations a year ago and their turnover-filled opener conjured up memories of last season's 1-4 start.
LINE: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s and sunny skies at Lincoln Financial Field. Winds will be light out of the north.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-0): Baltimore has been waiting seemingly forever for the offense to catch up with the fierce Ray Lewis-led defense. That time may have arrived. The Ravens unveiled a no-huddle attack and Flacco thrived in it, carving up one of last season's best defenses for 299 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21-of-29 passing. Running back Ray Rice had to settle for a supporting role - albeit a stellar one - with 10 carries for 68 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite the absence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs, the Ravens had four sacks and forced two turnovers.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0): Injuries limited Vick to a handful of plays in the preseason, and his lack of game action showed as he tied a career high with four interceptions before leading a 91-yard TD drive with 78 seconds to play. Vick heaved up a career-high 56 pass attempts despite the Eagles not trailing until the fourth quarter, reviving the second-guessing of coach Andy Reid's play-calling. Wideout Jeremy Maclin had a solid game with seven catches for 96 yards and a TD, as did running back LeSean McCoy with 110 yards on 20 carries. Philadelphia's defense limited the Brown to only 210 yards.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four Week 2 games.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 2 games.
* Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Ravens S Ed Reed, who returned an interception 34 yards for a TD last week to become the league's career leader for most interception return yards (1,497), is questionable with a hamstring injury.
2. Philadelphia starting WRs DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Maclin (hip) each sat out practice Thursday.
3. Harbaugh, who was an assistant coach for 10 seasons with the Eagles before being named Ravens coach in 2008, is 11-5 against the NFC.
Jets at Steelers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 41.5)
Now comes the hard part for the New York Jets. It's one thing to put up 48 points – a franchise record for a season opener - against the Buffalo Bills’ defense. It’s quite another to have success against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road – something that had eluded them up until two seasons ago. After silencing their critics - for now - with an unexpected offensive outburst, the Jets will try to validate that effort with a second straight win over the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are seeking to bounce back from a season-opening loss to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and will have safety Ryan Clark and possibly linebacker James Harrison back to help. The Jets, who hope to have former University of Pittsburgh star Darrelle Revis (mild concussion) in the lineup, earned their first-ever win in the Steel City 22-17 in 2010. The Steelers had won all seven previous home matchups and have won 17 of the 21 meetings, including a 24-19 victory in the 2010 AFC Championship game. Pittsburgh hasn't started 0-2 since 2002.
LINE: Steelers -5, O/U 41.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s and sunny skies at Heinz Field. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT THE JETS (1-0): The Jets’ dominating 48-28 win over the Bills was perhaps the biggest surprise of the first week, mainly because New York infamously failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three preseason games. Much-maligned QB Mark Sanchez threw for 266 yards and three scores – two to rookie Stephen Hill – and Antonio Cromartie returned one of three interceptions for a touchdown. There were two other surprising developments from the opener: The Jets’ suspect offensive line didn’t allow a sack and Tim Tebow (five carries, 11 yards, zero pass attempts) was a non-factor. The only negative from Sunday’s win was that Revis, who’s from nearby Aliquippa, suffered a concussion after being kicked in the head by a teammate. Revis was unable to practice again Thursday and the team will make a decision about his status Saturday.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1): Pittsburgh struggled against the Broncos’ no-huddle offense without Clark (sickle cell anemia) and Harrison (knee). The top-ranked defense from a season ago allowed 334 yards and the Broncos converted 5 of 9 third downs. Clark should return this week, while Harrison is questionable. The 2008 Defensive Player of the Year is still making his way back from minor knee surgery. Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 40, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), operating in Todd Haley’s new offense, was efficient at times but also threw a game-clinching pick six. As expected, the Steelers’ offensive line failed to keep Roethlisberger clean (five sacks). The running game, meanwhile, averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Second-year back Jonathan Dwyer (nine carries, 43 yards) outplayed Isaac Redman (11 carries, 20 yards) and should get more playing time with Rashard Mendenhall still recovering from a torn ACL.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Steelers last seven Week 2 games.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 2 games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Hill, a second-round pick, is the first Jets receiver to catch two touchdowns in his debut and the first receiver to do so since former Tampa Bay tight end Alex Smith in 2005.
2. Sanchez is 39 of 62 for 403 yards and two touchdowns in two career games against Pittsburgh.
3. This will be the second trip to Pittsburgh for former Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes – the Super Bowl XLIII MVP. He has eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against his former team.
Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The scoreboard operators were busy last week as a combined 791 points were scored in Week 1. That was the most for an opening week and second most in NFL history. In case you're wondering, the most points scored in a week were 837, which occurred in Week 12 of the 2008 campaign.
Despite the offensive outbursts, the 'over' only went 9-7 in Week 1 and with a couple different bounces, the 'under' could've came out on top. Some games that probably should've stayed 'under' were the Steelers-Colts, Jaguars-Vikings and 49ers-Packers.
As far as awarding the "Bad Beat" of the week, we'll go with the first-half 'under' between the Texans and Dolphins. Most shops closed the total at 21 ½ and it looked like a clear-cut lock with the score tied 3-3 with less than two minutes left in the second. Sure enough, Houston turned three turnovers into three touchdowns and led 24-3 at the break. Those not toying with the halftime wager were fortunate to see 13 points scored in the final two quarters, which helped the game go 'under' the closing number of 41.
Overtime Rules
We mentioned these changes the last two years and while it may or may not matter, it's good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.
Keep in mind that this was supposed to be for the playoffs only, but the change is now effective for the regular season as well. We first saw the rule come into play last year when Denver stopped Pittsburgh 29-23 in OT of the Wild Card game. Last week, Minnesota and Jacksonville went into overtime. The Vikings scored a field goal on their first possession and the Jaguars couldn't match the three points or score a touchdown, so the game ended and nothing mattered.
Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!
Become familiar with it folks!
Line Moves
Personally, I've had the most success following line moves with CRIS, who isn't afraid to take serious action. For this section, that's the outfit that we're going to follow this season.
As of Saturday evening, here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more.
-- Minnesota at Indianapolis: Opened at 44 ½ and has jumped to 46
-- Baltimore at Philadelphia: Opened at 43 ½ and has jumped up to 46
-- Cleveland at Cincinnati: Opened at 40 and has dropped to 38
-- Tennessee at San Diego: Opened at 44 and has dropped to 42 ½
-- Denver at Atlanta: Opened at 49 and has jumped to 51
Divisional Battles
Only four of the 16 games in Week 2 are divisional battles.
Chicago at Green Bay: The Packers beat the Bears 23-10 on Thursday, and the game never threatened the closing number of 50 ½-points. Including this outcome, nine of the last 10 games have stayed 'under' the number. These two meet again on Dec. 16 from Soldier Field and one would expect to see a total in the forties.
New Orleans at Carolina: Last season these two teams saw totals of 51 and 54 points and for the first meeting between the pair this year, the number is hovering between 51 and 52. The 'over' cashed in both games last season as the teams combined for 57 (30-27) and 62 point s (45-17), which were both victories for the Saints. Despite looking sloppy last week, New Orleans still managed to put up 30 points. The problem with the Saints is their defense and it was evident last week, giving up 40 points to the Redskins and a rookie quarterback. Offensively, Carolina looked dreadful in its 16-10 road loss to Tampa Bay. The Panthers did watch the 'over' go 5-3 at home last season but that was aided by a defense that gave up 20-plus points in six of eight at Bank of America Stadium. This year's unit is now healthier and it sort of showed last week versus the Bucs. Unfortunately, the Panthers' offense is hurting and might be without Jonathan Stewart (ankle) again, plus WR Steve Smith (knee) is 'questionable.'
Cleveland at Cincinnati: This game has the lowest total (38) on the board and it's understandable why the early action knocked the number down. Neither of the two teams has a large stable of playmakers on offense and it certainly showed in the first week of the season. The Bengals posted 13 in a road loss to Baltimore while Cleveland scored 16 in a tight setback to Philadelphia. Even though you could be looking at an ugly game, you have to be careful with the low number here. In 2011, the two regular season matchups had similar totals (36.5, 38.5) and they both went 'over' the number, but barely. Cincinnati posted 27-17 and 23-20 wins, the latter of the two coming at home.
Houston at Jacksonville: Seems like a low total (41) for these teams, but the two regular season matchups in 2011 did go 'under' with a combined 38 (24-13) and 33 points (20-13) posted, both Houston victories. The Jaguars did move the ball well against the Vikings and they managed to get five scores, unfortunately three of them were field goals and two were less than 30 yards. The Texans had six scores last week, matching three field goals with three touchdowns in just 12 possessions.
Fearless Predictions
We took off the first week of the season so we can get a better feel of the league and even though we're in Week 2, you should still tread lightly and not read into all of the early outcomes. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Houston-Jacksonville 41
Best Under: Detroit-San Francisco 46.5
Best Team Total: Over Jaguars 17
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 32 Houston-Jacksonville
Under 48.5 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 55 Detroit-San Francisco