NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 5

NFL Betting Preview: Denver at New England
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

Denver at New England
Alf Musketa's Recommendation: See analysis
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -6.5 O/U 51.5
CRIS Current: New England -6.5 O/U 52
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -8.5

I am a believer that Peyton Manning’s best day are behind him. The Brady-Manning matchup was one bettors couldn’t miss, but those Manning-led Colts teams were much better than what we are seeing with the Broncos. Plain and simple Manning's arm strength is clearly not what it used to be. Three of his first four passes thrown over 20 yards in the MNF loss at Atlanta were intercepted. Yes, Denver looked good last week against the inept Raiders who were 1-of-12 on third down and never forced Denver to punt! And yes, Manning was a sharp 30-of-39 passing, but even Rex Grossman could look superior against Oakland. Note that Denver will be without their starting center J.D. Walton who injured his ankle last week and is now on IR.

Trailing 21-7 early in the third quarter, with their backs up against the wall and their season and division on the line, the New England Patriots showed us what kind of team they are. They scored 45 points and the defense dug in and held the Bills to only one more touchdown. They have the talent and the defense is better with the draft picks acquired –it's the missed field goal loss at home to Arizona that has made them look average. This is the second home game for the Patriots, who are 24-2 in Foxboro during the regular season. I think the best value is to involve New England in a six-point teaser.

NFL Betting Preview: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Pittsburgh -4 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -3 (-120) O/U 43
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Pittsburgh -4

The reigning #1 defense in the NFL was torched by Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game in their opener. They got torched at Oakland prior to the bye as well, allowing the modest Raiders offense to score on each of their last five drives of the game. And even Pittsburgh’s shutdown performance in their lone win this year against the Jets must come with an asterisk, because the Jets’ offense hasn’t moved the football since. For a defense that jettisoned veterans like James Farrior, Aaron Smith and Chris Hoke in the offseason, there are clearly some questions right now. Here’s Troy Polamalu’s quote: “This team changed more than ever because of its loss of leadership. This is a different personality team than it was in the past.”

That being said, this spot clearly favors the Steelers, hungry and angry off their bye week. Linebacker Larry Foote: “I think we need the time to evaluate ourselves mentally. We need to get away and individually we need some soul searching, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Guys need to pick it up, look at themselves in the mirror and see what we can do.” Of course the expected return to the lineup of formerly injured defensive stars James Harrison and Troy Polamalu should help matters significantly.

The Eagles continued to find ways to win tight games last Sunday Night against the Giants, when a fortuitous offensive pass interference penalty and subsequent missed Lawrence Tynes field goal allowed Philly to escape with a 3-1 record. That being said, their next pointspread cover will be their first of the season – much like last year’s team that started the campaign 4-8 ATS, the 2012 version has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this year.

That’s not likely to change. Philly’s overall stats look impressive. They’ve outgained their opponents by a whopping 0.9 yards per play (third best margin in the league, behind only San Francisco and Baltimore) and that hasn’t come against weaklings either – they’ve faced the Giants, Cardinals and Ravens over the last three weeks. The markets look at Philly’s -5 turnover differential and see a team primed to improve.

But after three barnburners in four weeks, facing a rested and determined foe, it’s not going to be an easy task for the Eagles to hang around for 60 minutes this week. It’s worth noting how badly Philly looked in their lone previous road tilt, and how good the Steelers looked in their lone previous home game. And with Ben Roethlisberger making fewer mistakes than Michael Vick these days, don’t be shocked if the Eagles fail to bounce back off a their miscues here – exactly what happened at Arizona.

NFL Week 5

Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2) — Washington plays fun games to watch; all four went over total, with Skins scoring 24+ in every game, allowing 22+- they’ve got 13 TDs on 48 drives, averaging 5.27 ppp in red zone- they’ve run ball for 175.5 yards/game, so you wonder how bad their defense would be if they weren’t running ball so well. One area Skins have struggled is on 3rd down, converting just 13 for 51 (25.4%), part of why they’ve won field position battle only once in four games. Atlanta pulled home game out of hat last week vs Carolina team with mobile QB Newton; Falcons won field position battle in all four games; they’re +8 in turnovers, with seven INTs and only three giveaways. Road team won last four series games, with average total in last five, 48.8. Falcons won their last three visits here- they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as road favorite, 20-8-1 in last 29 games where spread was 3 or less points. Since ’08, Washington is 9-11-2 as a home dog.

Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2) — Iggles have three wins by total of four points, as Vick has led game-winning drive in last 2:00 of all three wins; last week was their first turnover-free game, after they had 12 giveaways in first three games (-6). Philly off physical win over divisional rival Giants; they scored only one offensive TD in last two games (19 drives) and scored total of 23 points in splitting pair of road games. Pitt off bye after sluggish 1-2 start; add in Steelers’ post-bye stat. Eagles are 8-3 in last 11 series games, splitting last four visits here. Over last seven years, Steelers are 18-10 vs spread vs NFC foes; since ’06, they’re 17-12 as non-divisional home favorites. Eagles are 5-9 vs spread in last 14 vs AFC squads, but since ’06, they’re 13-4 as road underdog. Three of four Philly games stayed under the total. NFC teams are (9-4) vs AFC squads so far this season.

Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2) — Figure Colts to be emotional here- they found out this week their head coach has leukemia, and will be gone for most of rest of season. Indy off its bye, after splitting pair of close home games with Vikes/Jags (they led both games by 11 points at half). Add in Colts’ post-bye stats. Last two Packer games were decided by total of 3 points; they lost only road game (14-12 on controversial late TD at Seattle) and haven’t had takeaway in three of four games, so defense is suspect. Home side won last five series games, with Green Bay 0-3 in Indy, giving up 41 ppg, but those trends are all with #18 under center. Since 2006, Pack is 16-7-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’ve covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents. Football teams generally do worse with change of routine (see Saints) so shift of duties with Coach Pagano on sick leave will hamper progress of young Indy squad.

Browns (0-4) @ Giants (2-2) — Game opened Giants -13, was quickly bet down to -9, as Browns have yet to lose game by more than 10 points-- they’ve also had three extra days to prep after 23-16 loss (+11) in Baltimore last Thursday. Cleveland defense has been decent in red zone last three weeks, allowing four TDs, three FGs (4.00 ppp) last 10 times they were threatened. Problem for Browns is they haven’t run ball well (30 rushes for 76 yards in last two games), which exposes defense to Giant aerial attack (10.0/7.2/7.4 ypa last three games). Underdogs are 12-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East squads (NFC East non-divisional favorites are 0-8). Trap game for Giants, after last-minute loss in Philly and with 49ers on deck; since ’09, Big Blue is 6-17-1 as home favorite (4-10-1 outside division)- they covered twice in last seven games as double digit favorite, should spread creep back to 10+ points. Three of four games for both sides stayed under the total.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1) — Miami lost in OT last two weeks to Jets/ Cardinals; they’re 7th team over last 5+ years to play OT games in consecutive weeks- other six teams were 1-3-1 vs spread in that next game (one team had a bye). Three teams lost back/back OT games; those three were 1-2 vs spread in that third game, with both losses by 3 points- the three games were decided by total of 10 points. Miami is 14-5 in series vs Bengals, 8-3 here, but this is rare occasion where Cincy has better squad, having won last three games, scoring 34-38-27 points (scored 11 TDs on last 32 drives). Explosive passing attack averaged 8.0/12.8/7.9 ypa in last three games. Dolphins have seven TD drives of 75+ yards in last three games, after getting shut down by Texans in opener; Miami has to cut down on turnovers (10, -5 ratio) but they have to be pleased with progress of rookie QB Taneyhill (394 PY last week). Both teams had three of four games go over the total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3) — Word of caution on what looks like low number; since 2005, Ravens are 3-10 vs spread as road favorites in non-divisional games. Flat spot for Baltimore, coming off primetime games with Pats/Browns, and with big name Cowboys/Texans on deck. Illness to Colts’ coach Pagano had to hit hard here- he was Ravens’ defensive aide for last four years (DC LY). Chiefs are off to dismal start, allowing 34 ppg- they were down 24-6 at winless Saints in their only win, before rallying for win. KC ain’t running ball for 275 yards against Raven defense.that allowed 120 yards on 51 carries in last two games (Pats/Browns). Chiefs were outscored 58-12 in first half of last three games. OC Cameron is trying to pump up Raven passing game, but they averaged only 4.9 ypa in only road game, a 24-23 loss at Philly. Teams haven’t met since Ravens whacked KC 30-7 in ’10 playoffs, their third straight series win. Both teams had three of first four games go over total.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3) — Greatest moment in Seahawk history was 34-14 win over Carolina in ’05 NFC title game, but that was many moons ago. Home side won all five series games, with Seattle losing both visits here, 26-3/13-10. Hawks have sturdy defense this year, but they don’t trust rookie QB Wilson enough to win tough road games, having scored 14.5 ppg (two TDs on 22 drives) in losing first two away games 20-16/19-13. Carolina had its guts ripped out in tough 30-28 loss at Falcons last week, when Newton fumbled on game-clinching run, with ball being recovered short of first down marker; Panthers allowed 31 ppg in last three games- they’re -6 in turnovers already and allowed nine offensive TDs in last three games (seven of nine on drives of 68+ yards). Seahawks are 15-22-3 vs spread in last 40 games where spread was 3 or less points; Panthers are 8-10 in their last 18 such games. All four Seattle games stayed under total.

Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3) — Trap game for Chicago after surprisingly easy Monday night win in Dallas; their only loss was road game at Lambeau on short week; this is road game on short week, but Jags are hardly Packer-esque, scoring two offensive TDs on 21 drives in home losses to Texans (27-7), Bengals (27-10). Bears have 11 INTs in four games- they ran three of them back for TDs in last two games, and are already +7 in turnovers. Gabbert has played better on road, averaging 2.2/3.6 ypa at home, 6.1/6.7 on road. Chicago is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as road favorite, 12-10-3 in last 25 vs AFC teams. Jaguars are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs-- road team covered all four of their games this season. Home side won last three series games; this is Bears’ first visit here since ’04. Jags’ owner Khan is from Illinois (big Illini booster) via Pakistan. Last three Jacksonville games stayed under the total.

Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1) — Hard to endorse Tennessee squad that already lost games by 26-28-24 points; in their only win, they scored three non-offensive TDs, and still needed OT to beat struggling Detroit. Titans are 3-4 as road underdogs under Munchak; they’ve had only two takeaways in four games (-6 turnover ratio). Vikings didn’t score an offensive TD last week, but used PR/KR for TDs to nip the Lions in Detroit, week after they upset 49ers here; underdogs all four of their games this season. In their last three games, Minnesota allowed only 228 rushing yards on 70 carries (3.3/carry), so could be more tough sledding for Chris Johnson. Titans had 158 yards on ground last week, after having total of 117 in first three games. Vikes are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Minnesota won four of last five series games, with last four decided by 10+ points; titans lost six of seven visits here, with only win 20 years ago. Last three Viking games stayed under the total.

Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2) — Belichick crushed Tebow-led Broncos twice LY, 41-23 at Mile High, 45-10 at home in playoffs, but Denver has a better QB now; Patriots lost four of last five meetings with Manning brothers, with two losses to Eli in Super Bowls. Not only that, but Pats’ OC McDaniels faces his old team for first time since they fired him as HC after ’10 season. Broncos have 12 offensive TDs on 42 drives, as Manning develops chemistry with his new WRs- they pummeled Raiders LW, outgaining them 503-237, but off big divisional win and with pre-bye tilt at San Diego up next, this might be bigger game for Patriot squad that lost its only home game to 4-0 Cardinals. Pats scored 30+ points in all three away games, but were held to one TD, five FG tries in home opener. Since 2007, NE is 15-11 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite. Keep in mind that through four weeks, underdogs are 27-14 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Bills (2-2) @ 49ers (3-1) — Buffalo was 2-1 and up at half over Patriots last week, then they gave up 45 points in second half and now its hard to tell what to make of them, considering that high-priced pass rusher Mario Williams has touched opposing QBs three times in four games. All four Bills games were decided by 10+ points, with favorites covering all four. Buffalo’s losses by 48-28/52-28 scores. Since ’05, Bills are 12-16-2 vs spread as non-divisional road dogs. Niners bounced back from loss at Metrodome by crushing dysfunctional Jets 34-0 in Swamp; 49ers’ other two wins this year are by 8 points each- they’re 8-0 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 9-4-1 vs spread in game following a win. Three of four Buffalo games went over total; last three 49er games stayed under. Niners were +28 in turnovers LY, then even in first three games this year, before +4 last week got them back on track. Since ’05, Buffalo is 10-15-3 vs spread when facing an NFC squad.

Chargers (3-1) @ Saints (0-4) — Impossible to endorse Saints as favorites here, even though Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis are attending game at request of Drew Brees, who opposes his former team here; winless Saints don’t defend well, allowing 32.5 ppg (13 TDs, 10 FGA on 45 drives)- their last two losses were by total of 4 points, but they also blew a 24-6 lead at home to 1-3 Chiefs, giving up 273 rushing yards to KC. San Diego had six takeaways (+6) LW after having total of three in first three games, but they’ve only gained 300+ TY in one game so far. Bolts are 7-3 in series, winning all four games played here; last time teams met Saints won 37-32 in London in ’08. Since 2004, San Diego is 16-8-4 as road underdogs (1-4 LY). Three of four Charger games stayed under; three of four Saint games went over total. This is one of only two games Chargers will play on artificial turf this season; other one is Week 16 at Jets.

Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2) — NY-area panic mongers have Jets dead in water after pair of losses that surrounded less-than-stellar OT win in Miami and season-ending injury to defensive ace Revis, but fact is they’re tied for first in division and facing team they’re 5-0 against, with three of five wins by 15+ points. Now would be good time for Jets to reveal grand plan as to why Tebow was brought to Swamp—he hasn’t been much of factor thus far, and team has completed just 44.1% of passes in last three games (team has 2 TDs on last 33 drives). Houston is on road for third time in last four weeks; they’ve won in Denver and outsacked opponents 13-3 this year- they had two defensive scores last week and already have four TD drives of less than 50 yards. Texans convert 45.2% (28-62) on 3rd down and are +7 in turnovers, throwing just one pick in four games. Desperate home dogs have long been solid value of Monday nights, but in this case, it takes leap of faith on Sanchez’ Jets.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 5
By Covers.com

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 5's action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will likely not have to go against the full strength of the Cincinnati secondary, with at least four cornerbacks either doubtful or questionable. Miami still has to face a Bengals’ pass rush that has racked up a league-leading 16 sacks, though. Miami leads the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering just 56.8 yards, but has been susceptible to the pass. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (6, 46.5)

The Ravens, who played their first four games in an 18-day span, seek their first road win of the season against a bumbling Chiefs team that committed six turnovers in last week's 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 51)

A pair of red-hot quarterbacks meet in the nation’s capital on Sunday as Matt Ryan brings the undefeated Falcons into FedEx Field for a meeting with rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Ryan is the top-rated passer, completing more than 69 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Griffin is on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for an additional thousand. The rookie from Baylor is aiming to help Washington end a seven-game slide at home. The Redskins have played over the total in their last five home contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Pittsburgh benefited from having a bye week to lick its wounds after dropping a 34-31 overtime decision to Oakland on Sept. 23. The Steelers are expected to be buoyed by the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who is coming back from last season's torn ACL injury. Stud safety Troy Polamalu could also return after missing two games with a strained calf and James Harrison eyes his season debut after nursing a sore left knee. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (7, 48)

The Indianapolis Colts received a shocking setback when it was revealed earlier in the week that first-year head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be hospitalized for six to eight weeks to undergo treatment, leaving interim coach Bruce Arians to guide the Colts. Green Bay is expected to be without wideout Greg Jennings, who aggravated a groin injury in last week's contest. These clubs have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Giants (-9.5, 44)

The Browns attempt to snap a 10-game losing streak against the Giants on Sunday. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson leads AFC rookies with 222 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in three straight games. The Giants will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) for a third straight week, but QB Eli Manning has thrown for 1,320, the second highest total in the league and has won seven straight starts against the AFC dating back to last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)

The Seattle offense has been unimpressive under rookie QB Russell Wilson, ranking 28th in scoring (17.5) and 29th in total yards (281.5). But the defense has kept the Seahawks in games, allowing just 14.5 points and 275.8 total yards per game. The most puzzling aspect of Carolina’s early-season struggles has been the inconsistency of the run game, which averaged 35 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay and the New York Giants and 209 rushing yards against New Orleans and Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5, 41)

The Jacksonville Jaguars own the worst offense in the NFL - and now host a Chicago Bears team that has forced seven interceptions in the last two weeks and leads the NFL with 11 on the season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. New England became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer last week at Buffalo, two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight October games.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 44.5)

San Francisco had a dominant performance against the Jets last week. The defense allowed a season-low 145 total yards in the shutout, and the offense was efficient, which has become quarterback Alex Smith's hallmark. Smith has been steady as ever, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, and Frank Gore (326 yards, 3 TDs) averages 4.9 yards per attempt. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bills’ last 11 road games.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44)

The Titans’ biggest problem is a defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 37.8 points per game. The passing defense has been especially horrific, allowing an NFL-worst 75.3 percent completion rate and the second most touchdowns (10). The Titans' other current issue is at quarterback after Jake Locker (shoulder) was injured in the loss to Houston last week. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in relief, will be called on to start. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.

Week 5 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

One month is in the books inside the NFL season as only two teams remain unbeaten following Arizona's loss at St. Louis on Thursday. The Falcons look to move to 5-0 with a trip to Washington, while the Texans are long favorites on Monday night against the Jets. Four favorites on Sunday are attempting to avoid a letdown when they take on inferior opponents, as we'll see if these public teams are solid bets this weekend.

Falcons (-3, 51½) at Redskins

Atlanta rolled through its first three opponents (Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego), but had its struggles in a 30-28 home victory over Carolina last week as seven-point favorites. The Falcons head to the Nation's Capital to take on electric rookie Robert Griffin III and a Redskins' squad that is 2-2 through four weeks.

Washington won and covered each opportunity as an underdog this season at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, while staving off the Buccaneers with a game-winning field goal in last Sunday's 24-22 victory. The Redskins are playing only their second game at FedEx Field, as Mike Shanahan's club lost in the favorite role in Week 3 to the Bengals, 38-31, as Washington is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season.

The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in all four games, but the 'over' sits at just 2-2. Mike Smith's squad owns a 10-5 ATS record as a road favorite since 2008, including a victory at Kansas City in the season opener. Atlanta is making its first trip to D.C. since 2006, when the Falcons beat the Redskins, 24-14 as one-point underdogs, a game that dates back to the famed Jim Mora, Jr. era.

Ravens (-6, 46½) at Chiefs

Baltimore has been off since last Thursday night's home victory over Cleveland, as the Ravens head to Kansas City for the first time since knocking off the Chiefs in the Wild Card round in January 2011. Two teams have lost three games by double-digits this season, as both the Chiefs and Titans search for their second win on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel's team has failed to be competitive in three losses to the Falcons, Chargers, and Bills, while needing to rally from an 18-point deficit to force overtime in a victory at New Orleans. The Chiefs haven't cashed in any loss this season, but Kansas City has compiled a 6-3 ATS record as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium since 2010. Due to an atrocious defensive effort through four games, the 'over' is 3-1 so far, while the Chiefs have allowed at least 35 points in all three defeats.

The Ravens hit the road for just the second time in 2012, as Baltimore's first away contest was a bitter 24-23 defeat at Philadelphia in Week 2. John Harbaugh's club managed a 23-16 win over the Browns in Week 4, but failed to cash as 11-point favorites. Baltimore owns a 7-4 ATS record the last 11 in the role of road 'chalk,' including the 30-7 rout of the Chiefs to advance to the second round of the 2011 postseason.

Bears (-4½, 41) at Jaguars

An interesting spot for Chicago, coming off Monday's dominating performance as a road 'dog at Dallas. The Bears crushed the Cowboys, 34-18, while intercepting Tony Romo five times, including returning two of those picks for touchdowns. Now, the Bears head to North Florida for a late kickoff with the struggling Jaguars, who fell by 17 points to the Bengals in Week 4.

Lovie Smith's club has put together an impressive 3-1 ATS record, including a pair of double-digit victories in the favorite role over the Colts and Rams. Chicago faces another team in this class, as Jacksonville has scored a grand total of 17 points in two home games. The Jaguars are 3-7 SU/ATS at home off a loss since 2009, which includes a victory over the Ravens last season as a 10-point 'dog.

The Bears are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as Chicago is 7-3-1 ATS since 2007 when laying points away from Soldier Field. The defense has held their last two opponents (St. Louis and Dallas) to just 24 points combined, while the Bears own a 5-1 ATS record the last six opportunities as a favorite off a straight-up victory as an underdog.

Bills at 49ers (-9½, 44½)

The Niners rebounded nicely from a Week 3 loss at Minnesota by slicing up the Jets, 34-0 last Sunday. San Francisco returns home after spending the last two weeks on the highway to host a Buffalo team that is reeling following a 52-28 beatdown at the hands of New England. How bad was it for the Bills? Chan Gailey's squad led 21-7 before the Patriots ran off 35 unanswered points, as New England improved to 22-2 to the last 24 meetings with Buffalo since 2000.

Since Jim Harbaugh's arrival in the Bay last season, the 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS, while cashing three of four times in 2012. San Francisco has failed to cover one time in this span at Candlestick Park, losing the NFC Championship to the Giants in overtime this past January. The Niners have won six of their previous seven home games against AFC opponents, including a pair of double-digit triumphs over the Steelers and Browns last season.

The Bills have been involved in three high-scoring affairs this season, while allowing at least 48 points in two defeats. In the last 10 games in the road underdog role, Buffalo is just 3-6-1 ATS, including the 20-point blowout loss in the season opener to the Jets. The 'over' is on a nice run for the Bills, going 6-1 since last December.

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Gamblers watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 last week and a lot of the games were either hurt or helped with second-half outputs. Anybody chasing ‘over’ tickets were certainly pleased last week, as the ‘over’ went 10-5 in the second-half.

It’s safe to say that when you see those lopsided results, you know some ‘under’ tickets were tough losses, in particular the Miami-Arizona outcome. The Dolphins and Cardinals ‘under’ was definitely the right side and the score was 13-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Sure enough, some huge plays and key fourth-quarter conversions helped the score get knotted at 21 and that was all that was needed to go ‘over’ the closing total of 40 ½ points.

On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 32-31 through 63 games. Keep in mind that there are only 14 games this week with four teams on bye and all of the contests are non-divisional.

Off the Bye

Two teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, weren’t in action last week due to their byes. We bring that to your attention because the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

One reason that can be argued is the new rules created by the NFLPA, which mandates that players must receive four consecutive days off at one point during their bye week. In simple terms, just because a team is off doesn’t mean that they’ll be prepared.

The Steelers host the Eagles on Sunday and the number has already dropped (see below). Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 this season while the Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1. Surprisingly, Philadelphia’s defense is playing better than the offense this season.

If Indianapolis wants to win this weekend, most would believe that it will have to score some serious points at home against Green Bay. The Colts allowed 20 and 22 points in their first two home games and that came against inferior attacks in the Vikings and Jaguars. However, the Packers’ offense isn’t clicking this season, especially when you compare it to last year’s numbers. To put things in perspective, Green Bay scored 30 or more points in 11 of its 17 games. Through four games this season, the Packers haven’t busted the 30-point barrier and the total is hovering on the high side of 48.

Early Tendencies

Washington has started the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets. Oddsmakers have been tweaking numbers with the Redskins’ totals all season and this week is no different. The line for Week 5’s game against Atlanta opened at 52 and took an early hit down to 50 but has bounced back up to 51 ½ points. Perhaps some pundits are expecting rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III to hit a wall. It hasn’t happened so far and another great component for ‘over’ tickets is a shaky defense and that’s what the Redskins have. The unit is allowing 415 YPG and 30.8 PPG, plus the pass rush has only generated seven sacks in four games. If Atlanta’s Matt Ryan gets time on Sunday, another 30-spot could easily be posted in D.C.

Seattle has proven to us that it has a legit defense (14.5 PPG) and an offense that’s very limited. Similar to Washington, the Seahawks are using a rookie quarterback as well. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson (4 INTs, 4 TDs) hasn’t had much success in his debut season, especially on third-down conversions (28%). When you combine these facts, it usually produces low-scoring affairs. With that being said, we shouldn’t be surprised that Seattle is a perfect 4-0 to the ‘under’ this season. This week, the Seahawks will head back on the road to face Carolina, who has the ability to score. The total opened at 44 and dropped quickly (see below) and you can certainly understand why. This will be the third road game of the season for Seattle, who scored 16 and 13 points in the first two games as a visitor.

Line Moves

After watching the early money go 7-1 in Week 3, the sharps weren’t exactly sharp in Week 4. In the eight totals that saw line moves (up or down) of 1 ½-points or more, only the Seattle-St. Louis ‘under’ was the correct call. Below are the Week 4 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh: Line opened at 44½ and dropped to 43
Miami-Cincinnati: Line opened at 44 and jumped to 45½
Tennessee-Minnesota: Line opened at 45½ and dropped to 44
Seattle-Carolina: Line opened at 44 and dropped to 42½

Under the Lights

The Eagles-Giants matchup on SNF started slow and wound up going 'under’ the closing number of 46 but could’ve gotten there with some help. On Monday, the Bears and Cowboys certainly got help from mistakes. Chicago led 3-0 late in the second quarter before Dallas gave up four big plays, two of them coming with interception returns for touchdowns. What looked like an easy ‘under’ turned into an ‘over’ ticket.

Through 14 games, the ‘under’ stands at 10-4 (71%) in primetime games this season. Bettors could be looking at a shootout on SNF, when New Orleans and San Diego clash from “The Big Easy.” The total (53) is the highest on the board and could get there easily if they convert touchdowns and not field goals.

Fearless Predictions

We juiced out last week and with a couple bounces, we probably could’ve swept the board again. You don’t get paid for close-calls, so we’ll accept the 20 cents ($20) loss. Overall, we’re still up $160 and looking to bounce back. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Chicago-Jacksonville 41

Best Team Total: Over 28 New Orleans

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 San Diego-New Orleans
Under 50 Chicago-Jacksonville
Under 54 Miami-Cincinnati

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers' bouncing back from a surprising 24-13 loss at Minnesota by humiliated the Jets 34-0 last week in New York return home for a three-game stretch starting with the Buffalo Bills. 49ers' off it's dominating defensive performance and best rushing effort of the season appear primed for another big day. 49ers' stout defense including a secondary arguably one of the best in the league hard to envision Bills' upsetting the apple-cart here, especially knowing Ryan Fitzpatrick picked off four times last week, seven times on the season has chucked 13 interceptions last eight on the road with Bill's posting a 1-7 (2-5-1 ATS) mark over the span. 49ers' a sound investment at home winning 14-of-17 (13-3-1 ATS) at Candlestick Park have a pair of RB's in Gore, Hunter that will inflict serious damaging vs. a Bills' run stop unit shredded for 247 yards, four TD's in it's embarrassing 48-28 home loss to the Patriots. Tough spot for Bills' on a 4-14 (8-9-1 ATS) road skid outscored by 10.0 points/game, 2-6 (2-5-1 ATS) road slide vs NFC opponents whipped by 14.4 points/game and 1-6 ATS on the road following a home loss as a dog. Stick with 49ers, this could get ugly early.