NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
One loss in the NFL isn't normally a cause for concern. But, with last weeks 17-3 loss against Rams the Cardinals obviously showed flaws that will continue to be exploited by opponents. Arizona's porous offense line with little luck containing the pass rush allowed Kolb to be sacked nine times vs. Rams and has eaten dirt 17 times the past two games. No threat of a running game (64 RYG) to keep opponents honest teams with dangerous pass-rushers will continue to be a thorn in Cardinals side. That doesn't mean the Cardinals don't have the ability to rebound from their first loss of the season when they host Buffalo. The Bills despite paying millions on retooling their pass-rushing defense with Mario Williams, Mark Anderson it hasn't paid dividends. Bills making another strong argument for the league’s worst defense getting shredded for 611 yards (310 PY, 3 TD) in San Francisco have now surrendered a whopping 1,201 yards (643 PY, 6 TD) and 92 points the past two on the field. Another tough spot for Buffalo as they're ridding a 4-15 (8-10-1 ATS) road skid, 2-7 (2-6-1 ATS) road slide vs NFC opponents and are on a cash draining 1-5 SU/ATS skid last six playing in Mountain/Pacific Time Zones while Cardinals enter on a smart 8-0 (6-2 ATS) run at home outscoring foes by an average 6 points/game.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers have had this one circled since they lost to the N.Y. Giants in last years Conference title game. Plenty of reason to back 49ers as they're on a 10-1-1 ATS stretch at home but 49ers putting on a show in defeating it's last two opponents 79-3 will be tested. Giants are in no way close to being as inefficient as the Jets and/or Bills'. Big-Blue sporting the leagues' second best total offense (429.2 YPG), third best air attack (309 PYG) and third best scoring offense (30.4 PPG) have the tools to keep this one within cover range. Keep in mind, Giants are on a profitable 6-2 ATS stretch last eight meetings, 8-2-1 ATS as road Dogs, 4-0 ATS on the road following a win by =>14 points and 12-4 ATS on the road vs the NFC West opponents.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Over the past two weeks the Patriots offense has been almost unstoppable racking up 1024 total yards scoring 83 points. Although Brady is doing his usual stuff carving up opponents it's the additional ground game spearheaded by Stevan Ridley, Brabdon Bolden and sometimes Danny Woodhead that has opposing teams baffled. Coach Bill Belichick's squad with their new found weapon(s) are sure to find out how good they really are up in Seattle. Seahawks owns the leagues top defense (258.6 YPG), the fifth best pass-protection (192.0 PYG), third best run stop unit (66.6 RYG) and third best scoring defense (14.0 PPG). Not that you don't have plenty of reason to back Seahawks a cash-stuffing 11-4 ATS as a home dogs under coach Pete Carroll. But, Seahawks are in dangerous betting territory as they've posted a 1-8 ATS mark as non-div dogs off a SU win as pups the previous game. Besides, the grouch in the hoodie has his troops on a profitable 14-5 ATS stretch in regular season road games, 7-1 SU/ATS streak vs AFC West foes outscoring teams by a 15.0 point margin.
NFL Betting Preview: New England at Seattle
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
New England at Seattle
Erin Rynning’s Recommendation: Seattle
Sunday, 1 pm PT – CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -4 O/U 44
CRIS Current: New England -3 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: New England -6
The Seahawks and Patriots will present an intriguing clash of styles on Sunday afternoon. The 2012 Patriots offense is looking as good as ever, which is saying something considering how potent the unit has been over the years. Quarterback Tom Brady is still the straw that stirs the drink running the fast paced unit with immense precision. Importantly, the Patriots have found their running game averaging 165 yards per game on the ground. However, the Seattle defense, and especially on their loud home turf, will create disruption for the Patriots offense. Athletically the Seahawks defense can man-up not only up-front, but with their secondary as well. The Seahawks own the No. 1 defense in the NFL allowing less than 260 yards per game and have already shut down Green Bay and Dallas at home. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will ramp up their run game with Marshawn Lynch as they deliberately try to keep the ball away from the Patriots. We’ll look for the Patriots offense to stumble with their ultra-efficient ways, while dealing with the Seahawks’ athleticism and crowd noise. Seattle can score enough points, while playing keep away to get this game inside the number in a hard fought affair.
NFL Betting Preview: St. Louis at Miami
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
St. Louis at Miami
Alf Musketa’s Recommendation: Under
Sunday, 10 am PT – FOX
CRIS Opener: Miami -3 O/U 38
CRIS Current: Miami -3 O/U 37.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Miami -4.5
The reason both of these teams are a combined 7-2-1 against the spread is their defense, and two dominant defensive teams makes for a good under play. The Rams have allowed a combined 16 points in their last two games and Miami just 13 last week versus favored Cincinnati. St. Louis will be minus their top wide receiver Danny Amendola who has 32 receptions. Sam Bradford has struggled completing less than 50% of his passes (48.1%) in their last three contests. Miami's defense is No. 1 against the run. It's hard to see where the Rams’ points are going to come from. Miami will have their hands full with the front seven of St. Louis who sacked Arizona's Kevin Kolb nine times. Also note, St. Louis has gone under the total 26 of their last 40 games (65%).
The total of 37.5 is the lowest we've seen all year in the NFL and if you plan on betting the under be patient, there are so many punters out there clamoring to bet the over with scoring up. You should get another point or point and half upwards come game day.
Week 6 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The home underdogs dominated earlier this season against the spread, but an under-the-radar bet that has turned profit is to fade short home favorites. By going against home 'chalk' of four points or less, a record of 16-6 ATS was produced, as six teams are in this situation heading into Week 6. We'll highlight the five day contests, including three below .500 teams that can be dubbed as questionable favorites.
Colts at Jets (-3½, 43)
This isn't exactly Super Bowl III reincarnated, as New York closes out a three-game homestand looking for a victory. The Jets cashed as 10-point home underdogs in Monday's 23-17 loss to the unbeaten Texans, but New York is a beat-up football team with questions at quarterback. The Colts have no questions regarding their most important position, as top pick Andrew Luck helped spear-head a late rally to stun the Packers last Sunday, pushing Indianapolis to 2-2 SU/ATS.
Indianapolis hits the road for the first time since getting drubbed at Chicago in Week 1, as the Colts have covered each of their last two games in the underdog role against the Vikings and Packers. The Jets have thrived when laying points this season, cashing in divisional victories over the Bills and Dolphins, while Rex Ryan's team needs to grab this game before heading to New England next week. Mark Sanchez owns a 2-1 record in his career against the Colts, including the playoff victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in January 2011.
Chiefs at Buccaneers (-4, 40)
The Tampa/St. Petersburg market will be missing this blacked out game locally, which could be a good thing. Matt Cassel will not start at quarterback for Kansas City, as former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn will make his first start since 2009 as a member of the Browns. The Bucs are fresh off the bye week, but Greg Schiano's club has dropped three straight games since beating the Panthers in the opening week of the season.
Since Jon Gruden's departure as head coach, Tampa Bay has put together a dreadful 6-17-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium the last three-plus seasons. The latest loss came against the Redskins in Week 4 as Washington slipped past Tampa Bay, 24-22, as the Bucs failed to cover as 1 ½-point favorites. Kansas City owns a solid 7-3 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium since December 2010, including an outright victory at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point underdogs.
Cowboys at Ravens (-3½, 44)
Baltimore heads to Houston for a potential AFC Championship preview next week, but the Ravens need to take care of business against the rested Cowboys this Sunday. Dallas looks to bounce back after getting routed at home by Chicago in Week 4, while Tony Romo threw five interceptions in the loss as three-point favorites. However, the Cowboys' most impressive victory this season came as a road underdog in the opener over the Giants, 24-17.
The Cowboys have dominated following the bye week over the last seven seasons by compiling a 6-1 ATS mark, as the only loss came as seven-point 'chalk' against the Titans at home in 2010. Dallas is 4-0 ATS the previous four road contests against AFC opponents, including covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots last season. Each of Baltimore's last three victories have come by seven points or less, while putting together two less than inspiring efforts in wins over the Browns and Chiefs, both non-covers. Since the team moved from Cleveland to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have won and cashed in all three meetings with the Cowboys.
Lions at Eagles (-4, 47½)
Detroit returns from the bye after two disappointing losses as a favorite to Tennessee and Minnesota, as the Lions allowed four special teams touchdowns in those defeats. Jim Schwartz's squad heads to Philadelphia this week to battle an Eagles' team that has been involved in four games decided by two points or less (3-1). The Eagles try to rebound after falling short in a 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia cashed for the second straight game following an 0-3 ATS start.
The Lions are receiving points for just the second time this season, as Detroit will attempt to improve on 3-8 ATS record away from Ford Field since the start of 2011. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has finished 'over' the total, including a 35-32 victory by the Eagles in Detroit two seasons ago as a 6 ½-point favorite. In Philadelphia's previous nine home games as a touchdown favorite or less, Andy Reid's club has cashed six times, including three of the last four since December 2010.
Rams at Dolphins (-3½, 37½)
After this game, either Miami will sit at .500 through six games or St. Louis will own a 4-2 record. Regardless, Jeff Fisher returns to the city in which he stiffed in order to take the Rams' head coaching job this past offseason. St. Louis is fresh off back-to-back home division wins over Seattle and Arizona, but the Rams will be without top receiver Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone against the Cardinals.
The Dolphins are favored for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories after a solid road triumph at Cincinnati last week. Following a 3-13 ATS run from 2008 through November 2011 as a home favorite, the Dolphins managed to cover four of their last five games at Sun Life Stadium in this role. Miami looks to improve on a 1-8 ATS record at home since 2007 against NFC opponents, with the lone victory coming over Washington last season.
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 6
By Covers.com
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick hitting notes on all of Week 6's action.
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48)
The Raiders are coming off a bye week and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey could be healthy enough to suit up for the first time since being hospitalized after being on the wrong end of a helmet-to-helmet hit against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Oakland hasn’t performed well on the road this season, being outscored 72-19 in two road losses to Miami and Denver. The Falcons are off to the best start in franchise history (5-0) and are seeking a seventh straight home victory Sunday. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 40)
Chiefs Backup QB Brady Quinn is prepared to make his first start in almost three years after first-string signal-caller Matt Cassel was knocked out of last week’s loss to Baltimore with a concussion. Kansas City has committed a league-high 19 turnovers and its defense has allowed 29 points per game. Tampa Bay has dropped its last three contests by a combined 15 points since opening the season with a 16-10 victory over Carolina. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five October games.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 43)
Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck has exceeded preseason expectations, throwing for more than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns over his first four games. Indianapolis comes in on a high after storming back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers 30-27 last weekend. The Jets had a glorious opportunity to knock off the unbeaten Houston Texans last Monday, but poor personnel management and more Mark Sanchez mistakes ultimately proved costly. Sanchez could have a short leash this week if he doesn’t get off to a good start. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (1, 43.5)
The visiting Bengals have won four straight and 13 of the last 16 meetings in the "Battle of Ohio" rivalry with Cleveland, which has lost 11 in a row overall. The Browns’ secondary will be bolstered this week by the return of star cornerback Joe Haden, who served a four-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 47.5)
The Detroit Lions are hoping the bye week was just what they needed. Detroit enters its Week 6 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles having lost three straight games following a season-opening victory over St. Louis. The Lions have put up a fight in the setbacks, however, as each loss was by eight points or fewer. Philadelphia has taken the last five meetings with Detroit, scoring at least 30 points in each of the last three victories. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38)
Jeff Fisher has the Rams north of the .500 mark for the first time in six years and the club has already surpassed last year’s win total. St. Louis will play without top WR Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone in last week’s win over Arizona, so the team’s focus could shift to Steven Jackson and the running game. The only problem is that Miami is ranked No.1 in the league against the run and has recorded 11 sacks in the past two weeks. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44)
Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw five INTs against Chicago in Week 4 (Dallas is coming off a bye week) and has two TDs against seven INTs in the last three games combined. Dallas’ secondary also took a hit against Chicago when S Barry Church was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. The Ravens defense forced four turnovers to grind out a 9-6 win at Kansas City in Week 5 and are riding a three-game winning streak. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 43)
Arizona suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of St. Louis last Thursday. Quarterback Kevin Kolb was sacked nine times and RB Ryan Williams sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the defeat. The Buffalo defense has been downright awful lately, surrendering 1,201 total yards to New England and San Francisco over the past two games. The Bills have played over the total in nine of their last 12 road games.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (3.5, 44.5)
New England leads the league in scoring and is averaging 165.4 yards on the ground behind Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. The Patriots have tallied over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games for the first time since 1978 and used the ground game along with Brady’s passing to set a franchise record with 35 first downs in a 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos last week. Seattle has one of the best stop units in the league and is 2-0 at home, while allowing a total of 19 points at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have played under the total in all five games this season.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)
The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories. San Francisco became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing en route to a franchise-record 621 yards in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Projected -2.5, 45)
The Vikings go for a fourth straight victory and look to claim sole possession of the NFC North lead Sunday. Minnesota expects star RB Adrian Peterson, who has 420 yards rushing and two scores so far this season, to be available after he suffered a left ankle sprain in last week’s convincing victory over the Titans. Redskins’ rookie QB Robert Griffin III has been cleared to practice after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Falcons, but he could be held out if he experiences any setbacks throughout the week. If the No. 2 overall pick can't suit up, head coach Mike Shanahan will start either rookie Kirk Cousins or Rex Grossman. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)
The undefeated Houston Texans will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. The Packers' running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson. Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss another week with a groin ailment. Green Bay has failed to cover in its last four road games.
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 6
By Covers.com
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick hitting notes on all of Week 6's action.
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48)
The Raiders are coming off a bye week and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey could be healthy enough to suit up for the first time since being hospitalized after being on the wrong end of a helmet-to-helmet hit against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Oakland hasn’t performed well on the road this season, being outscored 72-19 in two road losses to Miami and Denver. The Falcons are off to the best start in franchise history (5-0) and are seeking a seventh straight home victory Sunday. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 40)
Chiefs Backup QB Brady Quinn is prepared to make his first start in almost three years after first-string signal-caller Matt Cassel was knocked out of last week’s loss to Baltimore with a concussion. Kansas City has committed a league-high 19 turnovers and its defense has allowed 29 points per game. Tampa Bay has dropped its last three contests by a combined 15 points since opening the season with a 16-10 victory over Carolina. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five October games.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 43)
Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck has exceeded preseason expectations, throwing for more than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns over his first four games. Indianapolis comes in on a high after storming back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers 30-27 last weekend. The Jets had a glorious opportunity to knock off the unbeaten Houston Texans last Monday, but poor personnel management and more Mark Sanchez mistakes ultimately proved costly. Sanchez could have a short leash this week if he doesn’t get off to a good start. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (1, 43.5)
The visiting Bengals have won four straight and 13 of the last 16 meetings in the "Battle of Ohio" rivalry with Cleveland, which has lost 11 in a row overall. The Browns’ secondary will be bolstered this week by the return of star cornerback Joe Haden, who served a four-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 47.5)
The Detroit Lions are hoping the bye week was just what they needed. Detroit enters its Week 6 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles having lost three straight games following a season-opening victory over St. Louis. The Lions have put up a fight in the setbacks, however, as each loss was by eight points or fewer. Philadelphia has taken the last five meetings with Detroit, scoring at least 30 points in each of the last three victories. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38)
Jeff Fisher has the Rams north of the .500 mark for the first time in six years and the club has already surpassed last year’s win total. St. Louis will play without top WR Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone in last week’s win over Arizona, so the team’s focus could shift to Steven Jackson and the running game. The only problem is that Miami is ranked No.1 in the league against the run and has recorded 11 sacks in the past two weeks. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44)
Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw five INTs against Chicago in Week 4 (Dallas is coming off a bye week) and has two TDs against seven INTs in the last three games combined. Dallas’ secondary also took a hit against Chicago when S Barry Church was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. The Ravens defense forced four turnovers to grind out a 9-6 win at Kansas City in Week 5 and are riding a three-game winning streak. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 43)
Arizona suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of St. Louis last Thursday. Quarterback Kevin Kolb was sacked nine times and RB Ryan Williams sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the defeat. The Buffalo defense has been downright awful lately, surrendering 1,201 total yards to New England and San Francisco over the past two games. The Bills have played over the total in nine of their last 12 road games.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (3.5, 44.5)
New England leads the league in scoring and is averaging 165.4 yards on the ground behind Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. The Patriots have tallied over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games for the first time since 1978 and used the ground game along with Brady’s passing to set a franchise record with 35 first downs in a 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos last week. Seattle has one of the best stop units in the league and is 2-0 at home, while allowing a total of 19 points at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have played under the total in all five games this season.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)
The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories. San Francisco became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing en route to a franchise-record 621 yards in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Projected -2.5, 45)
The Vikings go for a fourth straight victory and look to claim sole possession of the NFC North lead Sunday. Minnesota expects star RB Adrian Peterson, who has 420 yards rushing and two scores so far this season, to be available after he suffered a left ankle sprain in last week’s convincing victory over the Titans. Redskins’ rookie QB Robert Griffin III has been cleared to practice after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Falcons, but he could be held out if he experiences any setbacks throughout the week. If the No. 2 overall pick can't suit up, head coach Mike Shanahan will start either rookie Kirk Cousins or Rex Grossman. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)
The undefeated Houston Texans will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. The Packers' running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson. Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss another week with a groin ailment. Green Bay has failed to cover in its last four road games.
Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 5 Recap
The 'under' produced an 8-6 record last week and that number could've easily been 12-4 if it wasn't for some second-half outbursts. In particular, our apologies go out to anybody who had the 'under' (39) in the Bears-Jaguars matchup. The line dropped, deservingly, and the score was knotted 3-3 at the half. Chicago led 10-3 late in the third quarter before a barrage of big plays, including two defensive touchdowns, happened. The final dagger was 44-yard scamper late in the game as the Bears were trying to run out the clock. Despite that lucky 'over' ticket, the 'under' stands at 40-37 on the season.
Round 2 - Already?
In Week 2, Cincinnati stopped Cleveland 34-27 at home and the combined 61 points easily jumped 'over' the closing number of 42½. Four weeks later, the Browns and Bengals will meet again, this time from Cleveland. The opener came out at 45 and it quickly dropped to 44 and most books have the line down to 43. Why the drop? For starters, there is a 60% chance of precipitation for Sunday's game, plus this is a divisional matchup so these teams are familiar with one another. However, Cleveland's defense is banged up but it does get back stud defensive back Joe Haden, who missed the Week 2 affair. Bengals QB Andy Dalton had 318 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting against a defense without Haden.
The 'over' has cashed in the last three encounters between the two teams but this total seems too high for this matchup and we delved into the number. In the last 20 meetings between the Bengals and Browns, the total was listed in the forties 12 times. The 'under' went 8-4 (67%) in those games and more importantly, it was 6-0 to the 'under' in totals listed above 42 points.
Off the Bye
We touched on this last week and with four teams off the bye, be aware of the rust vs. rest factor. Last season, the 'under' went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis were in these spots last week. The Steelers went 'under' while the Colts saw their game go 'over' but it wasn't easy for them. Indy got a tremendous effort from rookie quarterback Andrew Luck as the team posted 29 points in the second-half.
The four teams on bye this week:
Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers will host a banged-up Kansas City team.
Oakland: The Raiders will play an early game (10:00 a.m. PT) in Atlanta.
Dallas: The Cowboys visit Baltimore.
Detroit: The Lions head to Philadelphia (see below)
Something's Gotta Give!
With five weeks of action to analyze, it's a little easier to pinpoint 'over' and 'under' teams and their tendencies. It's easy to handicap a total when you have two 'over' or 'under' squads going up against one another, but what do you do when they're the opposite? Below are four contests where that issue exists.
Detroit at Philadelphia: The Lions are off the bye, so they should be prepared. Detroit has seen the 'over' go 2-1-1 and they've given up 27 and 44 points in its two road games. Philadelphia has watched the 'under' go 4-1 behind a turnover prone offense. The Eagles have only managed to bust the 20-point barrier once and they were fortunate (24) to do that. The total is hovering between 47 and 48 points, which might be too high for these inconsistent squads.
Minnesota at Washington: After starting the season with four straight 'over' winners, the Redskins saw the 'under' cash last week in their 24-17 loss to Atlanta. What we've learned from Washington is that you can score on them (29.4 PPG) but the offense has been shaky past two weeks. Minnesota has watched the 'under' go 4-1 and it should be 5-0 if it wasn't for some miraculous plays in Week 1's matchup against the Jaguars. The Vikings' defense (15.8 PPG) has been lights out this season, plus the offense prefers to grind rather than glow. No early total was released due to injuries but a number in the low to mid-forties should be expected.
Buffalo at Arizona: Can an average offense score on a suspect defense? Gamblers will ask themselves that question when the Bills, who have allowed 97 points the last two weeks, visit the Cardinals. Buffalo has watched the 'over' cash in four of five, due to its aforementioned weak defense. Meanwhile, Arizona has seen the 'under' go 4-1 and similar to Minnesota, the 'under' should be 5-0 if it wasn't for the late bursts in a Week 4 overtime win over Miami (24-21). Betting the 'over' in the desert was once a solid look but a weak offense and strong defense has changed that trend. Despite that fact, the total is still pretty healthy at 43½ points.
New England at Seattle: Another question for gamblers - can a great offense score on a great defense? The Patriots have seen the 'over' go 3-2 behind an offense that's scored 30 or more in four games this season. Defensively, Seattle is ranked first in total defense (258 YPG) and second in points per game (14) and the unit has played talented units in the Cowboys, Packers and Panthers. This will easily be the toughest test for Seattle, who has seen the 'under' go 5-0. New England is starting to run the ball more with a hurry-up look but the Seahawks have been beasts on the ground (66.6 YPG). The total is hovering around 44½-points, which is the lowest total for the Pats this season and not surprisingly, the highest for the Seahawks. Make a note that New England made two trips to the West Coast last season and they scored a combined 72 points against the Broncos (41) and Raiders (31) respectively.
Line Moves
The smart money went 3-1 (75%) last week with their total moves in Week 5. Below are the Week 6 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43½ (See above)
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: Line opened at 42 and jumped to 43 1/2
Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Line opened at 42½ and dropped to 40½ (Chiefs QB Matt Cassel 'out')
Fearless Predictions
If it wasn't for the Chicago-Jacksonville bad beat that we mentioned above, it would've been a clean sweep. Still, the profits were $190 for the week and now $350 on the year. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Atlanta-Oakland 48.5
Best Under: Cleveland-Cincinnati 43
Best Team Total: Over Oakland 18 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39½ Atlanta-Oakland
Under 52 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 46½ Miami-St. Louis
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
When the 49ers opened as six-point favorites for their Week 6 home game against the Giants, Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci wasn't surprised that the first few bets came on the Giants, but he was skeptical of a possible false move because of what he's seen over the first weeks of this season.
"I thought plus-6 was a lot of points, but it's the type of activity I'm seeing early from a few bettors that has me believing some might be attempting to drive the number down in order to bet the other side larger later in the week," said Scucci. "I saw the same type of pattern in last night's Steelers-Titans game and also last week between the Vikings and Titans."
The same thing also happened a few weeks ago when the Vikings beat the 49ers. The thought process for a sports book director is, 'why else would sharp money take the points early in the week when they know if they wait, the large conglomeration of public money accumulated might force the move to a better number.' The answer is simple, they want to lay the favorite later at many other betting outs for more money that follow moves from other books.
Scucci has no problem playing the cat and mouse game with the betting groups. He's been one of the best in the city at sniffing out schemes. From his early days running the Stardust to now, Scucci has seen just about every type of sharp money strategy and every few years, they seem to cycle back around.
"After we went to 5½ with the 49ers, we just continued to get 49ers action, pushing us to 6 and then to 6½ on Thursday," Scucci said. "But not much of it came from sharp money. It was all public money driving the number."
So if it was a scheme to influence the market, the sharps missed their opportunity which sets up for their zig-zag play. It's one of those things like a pitcher does in baseball where he sets up a hitter throughout a game with certain pitches, never showing him his ace pitch until maybe his second or third at-bat.
Sharps took +6 early knowing books would respect the move based on their movements in their first couple of at-bats. Now comes the curve ball where sharps wait for the best number on the Giants -- hopefully +7 -- and bet it again for larger money. It's just a theory, but one to watch that may play out over the weekend.
As a reference to show just how inflated Sunday's line already is, we can look back at last season's NFC Championship game in San Francisco where the 49ers were two-point favorites.
Cantor Gaming had the 49ers set at -3.5 in this game back in August, Now, we're looking at 6.5. Perhaps a little overreaction by the betting public?
"The public has seen the Giants appear to struggle a little while watching the 49ers not only win, but win big over the last two weeks, and easily covering the number," Scucci said.
Here's a look at how some of the other Week 6 games have moved during the week:
Bad weather is expected in Cleveland Sunday with a 60% chance of rain and some gusting winds that may make it difficult for the teams to score. The Browns have already been a great UNDER team at home, staying UNDER the number in their past seven home games. The total opened 44½ and has been bet down to 43½. The Bengals opened at -3 (EVEN) and have been bet against, down to 2½, just because of the key number and the underdog presenting great value this season.
The Buccaneers opened -3½ (EVEN) against the Chiefs and are now -4 ½ due to quarterback Matt Cassel (head) 'out' and Brady Quinn in for the Chiefs. Quinn has looked like a deer in headlights every chance he's got to play whether in preseason with Denver or his flop in Cleveland as starting QB, but there still isn't much of a fall-off from the two. The best thing Cassel has done all season is hand the ball off to Jamal Charles, which Quinn should be able to handle.
The Falcons opened as 8½-point home favorites against the Raiders and have been bet up to -9. This game has an eerily similar tone to it that the Panthers-Falcons game from Week 4 did. Bettors jumped all over the Falcons at home and it took a late snafu by Cam Newton for Atlanta to win, but the Panthers still got the money.
The Ravens opened as four-point home favorites, but Cowboys money has dropped the game to 3 ½. The Cowboys come off a bye with all kinds of offensive issues, but the Ravens hurry-up offense has been slowed somewhat over the past two weeks.
There is an on-going thought process by bettors in Las Vegas that this is the week the Lions finally show up with their 'A' game after a week off. The Eagles opened as five-point favorites and have been bet down to 3 ½. The Lions haven't covered a game all season and have been one of the bigger disappointments of 2012.
The Dolphins opened as five-point home favorites against the Rams, but bettors are buying into Jeff Fisher's Rams, who have covered four of their five games. The Rams offense is still a work in progress, but their defense has been very opportunistic with a strong pass rush.
The Patriots opened as five-point favorites at Seattle and Seahawks money has pushed the number down to 3 ½. Seattle has a huge home field advantage, but wow, the Pats have given Tom Brady two straight 200 yard rushing performances coming in.
The Texans opened as four-point favorites prior to their Monday night game against the Jets. After losing linebacker Brian Cushing, their defensive maestro, the line was adjusted to 3½, which may not be enough. Cushing is one of the more valuable defensive players in the league as far as ratings go. And for as sluggish as the Packers offense looks, they'd be 4-1 without two miracles going against them. Should be a great matchup under the lights on SNF!
The Chargers opened as three-point home favorites over the Broncos before their Sunday night game at New Orleans. Nothing changed when the line was reposted Monday morning, but bettors quickly ran with the Broncos dropping the number to 1½.
Sunday Night Football: Packers at Texans
By Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)
Even while maintaining their spotless record to open the season, the Houston Texans suffered a significant loss Monday night. They'll look to keep rolling without one of their top defenders as they welcome the high-octane Green Bay Packers to town Sunday evening. Houston will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets.
Cushing's absence will provide the Texans with their stiffest test of the season, as they face a Packers team off to a miserable start but still capable of burning opposing defenses. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. Aaron Rodgers appears to be rounding into form - having thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games - but the running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson.
LINE: Texans -3.5, O/U 47.5.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-3): Benson was placed on IR but given the "designated to return" tag, meaning he is eligible to come back in Week 14. Head coach Mike McCarthy believes Benson will return at some point during the season, but in the meantime the Packers will go with the "hot hand." Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans, with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss this week's game with a groin ailment.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-0): Cushing doesn't believe his season-ending injury has derailed the Texans' title aspirations. "WE are STILL winning THIS year's Super Bowl," he posted on his Facebook page. Nevertheless, his absence will put more pressure on a defense led by standout defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with a whopping 8.5 sacks through the first five games of the season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Packers offensive line that has surrendered 21 sacks so far, second-most in the NFL.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a loss.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Texans have been far more effective at protecting the quarterback than Green Bay, allowing a league-low three sacks to date.
2. Houston WR Andre Johnson caught eight passes for 119 yards and a score in Week 1, but has just nine total receptions in four games since.
3. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) isn't expected to practice until at least Friday - if at all - and will likely be a game-time decision.