NFL Week 7 Opening Point Spreads and Line Moves
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
A first look at NFL Week 6 point spreads and early line movement. Odds courtesy LVH SuperBook.
Seahawks at 49ers (-8.5)
San Francisco got smacked as 7-point favorites at home against the Giants on Sunday. Seattle ran its record to 4-2, both straight-up and against-the-spread, but is just 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Sehawks still took the early money, and the line was adjusted to 49ers -7.5 Sunday night.
Titans at Bills (-3)
Tennessee got the outright win as a 6.5-point home dog against the Steelers Thursday night. They get back on the road, however, where they’ve been blown out three times—in San Diego, Houston and Minnesota. The Bills, after big losses to the Patriots and 49ers, bounced back in Arizona, winning in overtime, 19-16, as a 4.5-point dog. Buffalo is 2-0 when laying points this year, with wins at home against the Chiefs and on the road in Cleveland. A bit of early action went on the Bills, who were moved to -3 (-120).
Cardinals at Vikings (-4.5)
Arizona, point-spread darlings early this season and in the second half of last season, logged its third straight non-cover—and second consecutive straight-up loss—at home against Buffalo on Sunday. Minnesota lost outright, 38-26, as 2-point favorites in Washington. The Vikes are 3-0 at home this season and took significant early money Sunday night, and the line was moved to -6.
Browns at Colts (-3)
Indianapolis returns home after losing, 35-9, at the New York Jets on Sunday. Cleveland keeps battling and held serve at home against in-state rival Cincinnati, winning as a 2-point dog, 34-24.
Ravens at Texans (-5)
Baltimore won, 31-29, but failed to cover at home against the Cowboys. Houston is playing Green Bay at home Sunday night.
Packers (-5.5) at Rams
St. Louis covered for a third-straight week, running its season ATS record to a very profitable 5-1, with a 16-13 SU loss as a 5.5-point dog in Miami.
Cowboys (pick ‘em) at Panthers
Dallas lost but covered as a 2-point dog in Baltimore, and is now just 2-3 SU. Carolina, 1-4 on the season, was off on Sunday. Dallas backers jumped all over the opening line, pushing it a full two points, to Cowboys -2.
Redskins at Giants (-7)
Robert Griffin III went off in Washington’s 38-26 home win against Minnesota. But it’s the Giants who really opened eyes with a 26-3 romp as a touchdown dog in San Francisco. Redskins money came in Sunday night, pushing the line off a key number and down to 6.5.
Saints (-2.5) at Buccaneers
New Orleans had a bye week. Tampa Bay came off its bye to roll over the Chiefs, 38-10, as 5-point favorites at home. The Bucs haven’t played on the road since Week 3. LVH moved the line to Saints -3, as some liked the opening number.
Jets at Patriots (-11.5)
The Jets got their second straight cover, thumping Indy, 35-9, at home. The Pats lost in Seattle, 24-23, as 4.5-point favorites.
Jaguars at Raiders
The Raiders lost, 23-20, but covered easily as 9-point dogs in Atlanta. Jacksonville was off. The Jags are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS on the season. Oakland opened -4.5, too much, according to some, who took Jax and pushed the line down to -4.
Steelers (-2.5) at Bengals
After losing outright in Tennessee, Pittsburgh has to go back on the road, where they have yet to cover this season. Cincinnati lost as a favorite for the second straight week, this time in Cleveland.
Lions at Bears (-7)
Detroit got its first win since Week 1, in Philadelphia as a 3.5-point point dog in overtime. Chicago was off. Lions money came in early, and the line was bumped down to -6 Sunday night.
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
The Washington Redskins (3-3, 3-3 ATS) off a 38-26 home victory over Minnesota Vikings take the show on the road for a clash with New York Giants (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS) at MetLife Stadium. Washington a much better team than it was last year when they beat Giants twice still face one of it's stiffest tests of the season. The Giants rank third in both total offense (414.7) and points scored (29.7). On the other side of the ball Big-Blue boasts an aggressive pass rush, solid run stop unit that has held opponents to just 19 points a game. Coughlin’s troops smothering a solid 49er offense this past week in it's 26-3 victory will be prepared for RGIII and company knowing a loss sends them into a deep 0-3 divisional hole. Besides, G-Men have double pay-back in mind. Consider Giants as they're on an 8-3 (6-4-1 ATS) stretch hosting Washington, 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 plus points with Redskins are just 4-14 (10-7-1 ATS) against a divisional rivals.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
New England Patriots suffering a crushing blow up in Seattle blowing a 23-10 lead with 7:31 minutes left can't be sitting well with the grouch in 'The Hoodie'. Expect his troops to be primed for some old fashion butt kicking when rival Jets come calling on Sunday. Consider New England knowing the Patriots are 6-3 ATS following a loss as a road favorite, 7-3 regular season stretch off a game scoring 21 points
Green Bay Packers at St Louis Rams
The St Louis Rams off a 17-14 loss at Miami, it's third straight road defeat on the season return to the comfort of Edward Jones Dome where the team has posted a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record. Rams maintaining perfection on home field vs a resurrected Packer offense destroying previously undefeated Houston Texans 42-24 will be tough. The defensive minded Jeff Fisher team allowing 18.5 PPG could give Pack a run for the money. Rams covering 5-of-6 this season, ridding a 4-2 ATS stretch as home dogs are a tempting proposition. But, caution is still in order knowing the squad has not been a good bet as home dogs vs the NFC North (0-5 ATS) and we find Pack not only smacked Rams 24-3 last year marking three straight wins/cover in the series they're 4-1 ATS off road win as an underdog
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions off a dramatic come from behind 26-23 OT win over the Eagles cashing their first ticket of the campaign (1-4 ATS) face a far tougher road test in Chicago. Lions have an uphill battle in the Windy City against Bears intimidating defense allow a messily 14.2 points/game on 291.2 total yards. Not the best spot for Lions as they're ridding an 0-7 SU/ATS skid scoring <24 points/game, 1-7 (4-4 ATS) skid vs Chicago, 2-9 (6-5 ATS) slide in Bears back yard.
Week 7 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
It has been a big season for the underdogs in the NFL, cashing at a 64% rate against the spread. Following last week’s 12-2 ATS run, many bettors are skeptical that this recent trend will continue heading into Week 7. The league seems to be more even than in years’ past, as only two teams in the AFC own winning records after six weeks (Ravens and Texans). Road favorites off a victory have struggled this season, owning a dreadful 5-15 ATS and 7-13 SU record, including SU/ATS losses by New England, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota last week.
All three clubs threw away a lead of seven points or more, including the Patriots squandering a 13-point advantage in the final quarter. Seattle rallied past New England with a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation to shock the Pats, 24-23 as 3½-point home ‘dogs. The Steelers overcame a six-point deficit to lead Tennessee, 23-16 in the fourth quarter, but the Titans came back with 10 unanswered points to beat Pittsburgh, 26-23. Minnesota grabbed an early 9-0 advantage at Washington, but the Redskins outscored the Vikings, 38-17 in the last three quarters to cash as one-point home ‘dogs.
We’ll take a look at the two teams in this potential ‘fade’ situation this week, the Packers and Saints. Green Bay heads to St. Louis, while New Orleans comes off the bye to battle Tampa Bay, as each team has failed to cash when laying points on the highway this season.
Packers (-5½, 45) at Rams
Green Bay rebounded from a disappointing loss at Indianapolis two weeks ago to beat Houston soundly as a road ‘dog last Sunday. The Pack attempts to break above the .500 mark with a victory over the Rams, who also sit at 3-3 through six games. The key for St. Louis is to slow down this powerful Green Bay offense, which lit up a solid Texans’ defense.
Aaron Rodgers tossed six touchdown passes as the Packers shredded the Texans, 42-24 as four-point road underdogs, handing Houston its first loss of the season. Green Bay covered only its second game in six tries, while doing so in its first underdog opportunity of 2012. The offense is finally clicking following a slow start the first three weeks, as the Packers have eclipsed the 27-point mark in each of the last three contests, while cashing the ‘over’ three straight times.
The Rams were held to below 19 points for the fourth consecutive game last Sunday in a 17-14 defeat at Miami, but St. Louis managed to cash as five-point ‘dogs. St. Louis heads into this week’s action with a sizzling 5-1 ATS record, including a 3-0 SU/ATS mark at Edward Jones Dome (all as an underdog). The key for St. Louis’ success at home is limiting its last two opponents (Arizona and Seattle) to 16 points combined. However, both the Cardinals and Seahawks rank in the bottom seven of the league in points scored, while the Packers are averaging 25.7 ppg (10th in NFL).
The Packers have actually profited when laying points on the highway in the Mike McCarthy era, posting a 16-13 ATS ledger. However, two of those losses came this season at Seattle and Indianapolis, both games decided in the final minute of play.
Saints (-2½, 49½) at Buccaneers
New Orleans is fresh off the bye, going for its first two-game winning streak of the season after rallying past San Diego in Week 5 at home. The Saints head to Tampa Bay, who goes for its third home victory of the season in four tries following a blowout of a dysfunctional Kansas City squad last Sunday.
The Bucs were a missed field goal away from being a perfect 3-0 at home, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed in all three opportunities in the underdog role this season. Granted, two of those ATS victories came in road losses to the Giants and Cowboys as 'dogs of a touchdown or more, but Tampa Bay has allowed 24 points or less in four of five games this season. Since Jon Gruden departed as head coach, the Bucs have covered only four of 10 home games against division opponents, as one of those wins came against the Saints last season as a 6½-point 'dogs.
The Saints aren't the best team to back in the road favorite role since 2010, cashing five of 15 times. One of those losses came at Carolina in Week 2, falling as a three-point favorite, 35-27, while posting a 1-3 ATS record when laying points this season. New Orleans can point to its defense for a majority of its problems in 2012, giving up 24 points in each of its five games, as the 'over' sits at 4-1. However, each of the last seven meetings between the Saints and Bucs have hit the 'under.'
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 7
By Covers.com
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick-hitting notes on all of Week 7's action.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-5.5, 50.5)
Rookies Albert Morris and Robert Griffin III have Washington ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 166.0 yards. However, The Redskins rank last in the league in pass defense, allowing an average of 328.3 yards per game through the air. The stop unit has yet to hold an opponent under 22 points and may be without S Jordan Pugh (concussion) this week. The Giants defense came up huge in the 26-3 upset over San Francisco last week, intercepting Alex Smith three times, while sacking the QB six times. New York is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)
John Skelton returns to his role as starting QB this week after Kevin Kolb sustained a rib injury in Arizona's 19-16 overtime loss to Buffalo last week. The Vikings were allowing only 15.5 points per game before getting thrashed 38-26 by the Redskins in Week 7. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (1, 45.5)
Dallas is looking to rebound from a 31-29 loss at Baltimore in which Dan Bailey missed a 51-yard field goal with two seconds left. The Cowboys also lost RB DeMarco Murray to a foot injury last week. Felix Jones could get the majority of the carries, with Murray missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have dropped eight consecutive meetings with Dallas. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 49.5)
The Saints could get a big boost on defense with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma, who is getting a one-week reprieve from the bounty scandal before the commissioner rules on the appeal of his suspension. The news isn’t as good on offense as tight end Jimmy Graham is questionable with an ankle injury. Quarterback Josh Freeman and the Bucs set season highs with 145 yards rushing and 318 yards passing in last week’s win 38-10 over Kansas City. Freeman has flourished after a dismal start, completing 60 percent of his passes for 627 yards with four TDs and two picks in his last two games. The teams have played under the total in seven consecutive meetings.
Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (5, 45.5)
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers made a loud statement last week to those predicting the team's demise, dominating the previously unbeaten Houston Texans behind six touchdown passes from the league's reigning MVP. The Rams are coming off a three-point loss in Miami but they have already surpassed last season's victory total behind a defense that has surrendered only 33 points in the last three weeks. The Packers beat the Rams 24-3 last season and have won the last three meetings by a combined 93-34 margin. The favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5, 48)
Baltimore begins life without LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CB Lardarius Webb (ACL), but reports are surfacing that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs (Achilles) has an outside chance at suiting up Sunday. The Texans’ sixth-ranked rushing attack was stuck in neutral and their defense was gashed for six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers in a 42-24 loss to Green Bay last Sunday night. Arian Foster, the league’s second-leading rusher (561 yards), was held to 29 yards on 17 carries with a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 45)
Cleveland stopped a franchise record-tying 11-game skid with a 34-24 victory over Cincinnati last week as rookie QB Brandon Weeden threw a pair of touchdown passes and CB Sheldon Brown returned an interception 19 yards for a score. The win was the first since Nov. 20 for the Browns, who enter Week 7 having lost 10 straight road games. Indianapolis showed little fight in a 35-9 loss at New York. The Colts allowed a season-high 252 rushing yards and lost defensive end Cory Redding with a right knee injury. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 46)
Buffalo went into Arizona and surprised the Cardinals in overtime last week, rebounding from back-to-back maulings in which the team was outscored 97-31. The Titans also bounced back from a pair of lopsided defeats in beating the Steelers. Tennessee has won four straight and seven of eight meetings with the Bills, including a 23-17 victory at Buffalo last December. The Titans and Bills rank 1-2 in the league in most points allowed with 204 and 192, respectively. The over is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last four games overall.
New York Jets at New England (-10, 47)
The Jets ended a two-game skid by returning to their “Ground-and-Pound” ways against the overmatched Colts last week, as Shonn Greene ran for a career-best 161 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries in a 35-9 win. Tom Brady and company are fuming mad after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning 24-23 defeat to Seattle – a loss that sent them to their worst start in seven years. The over is 5-0-1 in their last six meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4, 43.5)
Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL at 13.0 points per game and is averaging 241.2 yards. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert leads the league's worst passing offense (142.8 yards) and his completion percentage of 54.8 is 31st. While Oakland's rushing attack is 29th in the NFL at 78.4 yards per game, a healthy Darren McFadden against Jacksonville's suspect defense could improve those numbers. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (1, 45.5)
The last thing the Pittsburgh Steelers need is another injury, but they got one when QB Ben Roethlisberger turned his right ankle in practice Thursday. Roethlisberger, though, will play when the Steelers try for their fifth straight victory over the Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals have hurt themselves with a minus-7 turnover margin, including minus-4 in the last two games. Cincinnati has salvaged just two wins in its last 11 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Cincinnati
NFL Week 7
Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3) — Buffalo lost its last 12 pre-bye games (3-8-1 vs spread, 1-4 last five when favored); they’ve lost seven of last eight games with Titans, including last four in row by average (23-17 LY), with average total in those four, 50.3. Tennessee has extra prep time after upsetting Steelers last Thursday, but teams are 3-7 this year coming off Wed/Thurs games- since start of ’10, Titans are 5-10 vs spread in game following a win. Buffalo allowed 17-14-16 points in its wins, 48-52-45 in losses; favorites covered five of their six games this year (Bills 2-0 as favorite in ’12, 7-11-1 as home favorites since ‘08). Tennessee won three of last four visits here, where fans will be fired up with all four AFC East teams tied for first at 3-3. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home; AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4. Three of last four Titan games, four of six Buffalo games went over total.
Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2) — Larry Fitzgerald goes home to Metrodome, where Cardinals lost last seven visits (27-24ot/34-10 last two years); Arizona has injury issues at QB, with Kolb/Skelton both having been KO’d from games this year. Redbirds lost last two games, scoring one TD on 25 drives, after scoring nine TDs on 49 drives in 4-0 start. Dogs are 6-0 vs spread in Arizona games; Cards are 5-3 in last eight games as a road dog. Minnesota gave up total of 33 points in three consecutive wins, then goes to Washington and gives up 38 points to rookie QB in game where they outgained Skins by 60 yards, but did turn ball over three times. Vikings are 3-0 at home this year, winning by 3-11-23 points; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games as a home fave. NFC West non-divisional dogs are 9-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-3. Five of six Arizona games, four of last five Viking games stayed under total.
Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3) — Two rookie QBs and an interim coach in this game, good one to skip. Cleveland’s 27-19 win here LY was its first in six series games, with average total in last four meetings, 24.0; Browns are coming off first win of year, revenge win over Bengals where Cincy outgained them by 110 yards but turned ball over four times. Cleveland is 3-5-2 vs spread in game following its last 10 wins- they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 32.7 ppg in losses by 7-7-14 points. Indy is 2-3 with both wins by FG; they’re 2-1 at home, giving up 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00 in only loss. Browns need to make hay on ground; Indy allowed average of 192.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Cleveland allowed 23+ points in each of last five games; Colts are 2-0 when they score 23+. AFC South teams are 2-2 as non-divisional favorite (they’ve been dog in 11 of 15 non-div games); AFC North teams are 3-3 as non-divisional underdogs.
Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1) — Ravens won last two weeks by total of 5 points despite allowing 214-227 rushing yards, and having 10-yard deficits in field position in both games; Baltimore defense crippled with Webb/Lewis out for year, so expecting Ravens to become more of offense-driven team. Ravens won four games in row, with three of four wins by 3 or less points—underdogs covered their last five games. Houston got waxed in primetime Sunday night, as quality of opponent improved; since ’07, they’re 17-12-3 as home favorite. Since ’08, Ravens are 11-6-1 as road dogs. Texans are have never beaten (0-6) Baltimore, losing twice to them LY, including 20-13 in Charm City playoff game- Ravens are 3-0 here, winning by 4-28-6 points. Houston is 7-3 vs spread in pre-bye games; Ravens won three of their last four such games. Four of six Baltimore games, three of last four Texan games went over total.
Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3) — Third straight road game (historic weak spot) for Green Bay, which woke up bigtime last week and pounded Texans in primetime; defense had six takeaways (+6), after having total of five in first five games. Pack won last three series games by 19-19-21 points; this is huge upgrade in opposing QB for stout Ram defense, which faced three rookies/Kolb in first six games (Stafford/Cutler other two). Ram offense is awful in red zone (3.79 per trip, well below NFL average), and with shaky OL/Amendola out, they’re even worse, but St Louis is 3-0 at home, allowing 14.7 ppg- they’ve given up 11 ppg in last three games (three TD’s on 31 drives). Packers scored 28-27-42 points in last three games; they’re 1-2 on road, losing in Seattle/Indy by total of five points, but loss at Seattle was bogus. NFC West non-divisional home dogs are 4-0 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 4-7, 1-3 on road.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4) — Dallas is 8-3 in this series, 4-2 here, with both losses in playoff games; Pokes won last four series games by average score of 25-18. Cowboys lost three of last four games, allowing 27-34-31 points (four TD’s on defense/special teams)- they’ve held foes to 17-10 points in wins. Carolina was held under 400 yards in three of five games; they scored 10-7-12 points in those games. Only one of five opponents (Bears, 360) gained more than 316 vs Dallas. Cam Newton hasn’t played as well this year; Panthers lost last two home games, scoring 9.5 ppg (1 TD/19 drives)- their only win was over dysfunctional Saints, but Carolina has won five of last seven post-bye games. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 0-4 on road; NFC South teams are 4-5 SU in non-divisional home games (favored in all nine). Garrett/ Romo combo under fire for shaky time management in last minute of LW’s loss at Baltimore- this is game they have to have.
Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2) — Little bit of trap game for Big Blue, after convincing 49er win last week and with hated Cowboys on deck, but Redskins swept series (28-14/23-10) LY, after losing nine of previous ten series games, so Giants do have revenge motive of sorts. Redskins lost six of last eight visits here, but finally have franchise QB in rookie Griffin, whose offense has been held under 24 points in only one of six games- they’ve been plus in turnovers in five of six games (+9) and were even in 6th game. Skins won SU both times they’ve been favored this year, with no losses by more than seven points. Giants won four of last five games, covered last four- their last three wins are by 29-14-23 points. Big Blue is 1-2 as home favorite; road team covered five of their six games. Divisional favorites are 6-7 vs spread this season, 1-4 in NFC. Five of six Redskin games went over total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.
Saints (1-4) @ Buccaneers (2-3) — Saints are still scoring points; they’ve scored 24+ in all five games, but they’re not running ball well (83 or less yards in all four losses). Teams split season series last four years, going 2-2 in each park; Saints lost four of last six visits here. Bucs held three of five opponents to 16 or less points, but they also gave up 25 points in 4th quarter to Giants, and Brees’ offense is as explosive as that one. Tampa Bay allowed 10 points in both wins; 16-41-24 in losses- they should throw parade for Schiano if he holds NO to 10 points. Dogs covered four of five Buc games; Tampa is 2-1 at home, with only loss 24-22 to Redskins. Saints are 5-8 in last 13 tries as road favorite; they scored 27 points in both road games this year, but lost both anyway- they won/covered last three post-bye games, scoring 48-34-49 points, but those games were with Payton as coach, under normal circumstances. Four of five Saint games, three of last four Tampa Bay games went over total.
Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3) — Way to beat the Patriots is thru air; they’ve allowed 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in each of last four games, one of only two teams (Titans) to do that. Brady was sub-par in red zone in Seattle, scoring one TD, three FG’s on six visits in 24-23 loss; NE averaged 3.79 pts/red zone drive in its three losses, 5.93 in wins—they’ll move ball between 20’s vs anyone. Jets are 6-8 as road dog under Ryan; they’ve allowed only one TD, three FGs in red zone last two games, after getting crushed 34-0 at home by 49ers. Since ’05, Patriots are 28-28-1 vs spread as home favorite, 9-12 in division games. Pats won 30-21/37-16 in LY’s meetings, also beat Tebow’s Broncos 41-23/45-10; after Sparano sprung Wildcat on NE and upset them in its debut, Patriots have learned to defend it. Last nine series games were decided by 9+ points; Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 17-42-9 points, and win in ’10 playoffs. Last four New England games went over total.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4) — Oakland hired Denver’s DC as its new head coach, so of course they stink on defense, allowing 31.5 ppg in last four games (14 TD’s on last 43 drives); since ’06, Raiders are 4-14 vs spread as home favorites, 0-1 this year- their only win was 34-31 upset of Steelers four weeks ago. In their history, Jags were underdog in only two of 17 post-bye games (9-8 SU), failing to cover either; they’ve played better on road this year, with both away games (1-1) coming down to last minute- they got smoked in all three home games. Jags are giving up average of 163 rushing yards/game, would expect Oakland to try and pound ball to take stress off defense. Jax won four of five series games, with only loss in first meeting (‘96); they’ve won two of three visits here, with average total in three games, 22.7. AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4 against spread. Three of last four Jaguar games stayed under the total.
Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3) — Since 2006, Pitt is just 11-17-1 vs spread in games where line was 3 or less points; Cincy covered 11 of last 17 such games. Steelers won four in row, nine of last 11 series games, with average score in last four meetings, 27-13; they’ve won 10 of last 11 visits here, in what has been lopsided rivalry. Pitt has issues on OL; only once in its five games have they run ball for more than 75 yards. Steelers allowed 10-14 points in its two wins, 26+ in its three losses; they had three extra days to rest/prep here after damaging loss in Nashville last week. Bengals were 3-1, then lost to Miami/Browns last two weeks, turning ball over seven times; they’re now -7 in turnovers for season- if they don’t clean that up, this’ll be another long season. Cincy won three of last four pre-bye games, but since ’91, they’re 4-8 vs spread as underdog in pre-bye tilts. All three Steeler road games, and four of six Bengal games went over total.
Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1) — Chicago’s four wins are all by 16+ points; their only loss was on very short week at Lambeau. Bears are 2-0 as home favorites this year, beating lesser foes by 20-17 points- since ’05, they’re 8-6 as a divisional home favorite. Bears already have 17 takeaways this year (+9), trait of Smith’s better teams. Undisciplined Lions have allowed six TD’s on defense/special teams; they won at Philly last week despite being penalized 16 times for 132 yards. Three of five Detroit games were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going OT; dogs covered four of their five games. Chicago won seven of last eight series games, winning last four here by average score of 33-19; Lions ended long series skid with home win LY. Bears won five of last six post-bye games, including win as an 8-point dog LY. Bears are averaging 4.8 explosive (20+ yards) plays per game; Lions allowed a total of three in their last two games.
Armadillosports.com
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The Seattle Seahawks seem to be involved in every dicey situation Las Vegas sports books have had to deal with this season. In Week 3, we had the questionable touchdown call against the Packers that gave the Seahawks the win and cover, while Thursday night we had a Seahawks safety smartly declined by 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh.
Two additional points for the 49ers would have meant instead of being a 13-6 score, and a non-cover, it would have been 15-6 with almost everyone covering.
The funny part about all of this is that bettors could have had at least a push in the Thursday night game laying the 49ers if they would have made a bet prior to Thursday. The game had been up on the board since Sunday night, and was -7 through Wednesday. 7.5’s didn’t start popping up until Thursday morning.
Once it was clear that the public was still betting the 49ers on game day at 7½, it didn’t take long for bookmakers like Jay Kornegay at the LVH Super Book to bypass the dead number of 8 and go right to 8.5.
So yeah, it was a bad beat, but if you lost on the 49ers laying 7½, you were late to the party, and if you made a straight bet at -7½, you should have paid the extra .10 cents and erased the hook. And I’m not just saying that now after the fact. Seven lands the second most time out of any margin of victory in the NFL at a 9.6 percent clip over the past five seasons.
When dealing with three -- the most common margin of victory (14.5%), most sports books won’t allow you to buy off it because it’s so key. So being able to buy a half off such a key number like seven for only .10 cents is pretty good value.
And really, was the decision that bad of a beat? It would have taken a bad beat to make a 49ers bet a winner. What about the Seahawks bettors who had the right side all game? The 49ers weren’t even covering in this game at any juncture and were outplayed.
If anything, your prayer to the cover Gods was heard, and almost fulfilled, but at the last second, even they thought a cover like a safety in a game with less than minute remaining, where the team favored by 8.5 is winning 13-6 was too much of a miracle to make happen.
The end result in Vegas wasn’t that big of a deal, not even close to exaggerated reports that surfaced in Week 3 when some 'experts' reported that $15 million changed hands as a result of the bad call on the Packers-Seahawks.
Most of the bets from the week were a push with the Thursday 49ers money losing. Sports books on the strip aren’t full like they will be on the weekend, and didn’t take a lot of action. Most of all, the game stayed UNDER the total which was good for the books.
Here’s a look at some of the moves from Week 7:
The game of the week looks to be the Jets at the Patriots, just because Rex Ryan does all the promoting like Don King with all his wild predictions. He did say the Jets would beat the Patriots, but what’s new? He says it all the time and he’s been right three of the seven games they’ve played. But Las Vegas isn’t buying the hype and opened Ryan as 12-point underdogs, the highest number ever placed on his Jets while being the coach. Sharp money bet the game down to 10.5, while small money has bet the Patriots with whatever line was available. The Mirage had the lowest number at -10 on Thursday, but are back up to -10½.
The Bills opened as 3-point home favorites against the Titans and have been bet up -3½ (-120), mostly because the Titans have been so bad on the road this season.
The Vikings were initially 4½-point home favorites against the Cardinals, but the combination of Kevin Kolb being out and the Vikings impressing bettors this season has moved the line up to 6½.
The Browns were getting +3 on the road at Indianapolis, but it didn’t last long as bettors jumped on the key number of three and took the points. The Colts are currently -2½ (EV).
The Texans moved from an opener of -5 at home to -6½ against the Ravens, who will be without Ray Lewis. The bigger blow to the Ravens is losing defensive back Ladarius Webb.
The Packers have remained 5½-point road favorites at St. Louis with lots of respect given to the Rams, who are 3-0 straight-up at home this season as an underdog.
The Cowboys were initially Pick ’em at Carolina, but the line quickly moved to Cowboys -2½.
The Redskins beat the Giants in both games last season, which may be why bettors found the Redskins +7 so attractive and pushed the game down to 6.
The Raiders opened as 4½-point home favorites against the Jaguars and are currently -4.
The Steelers opened -2½ at Cincinnati and have been moved to -1½. Ben Roethlisberger injured his ankle in practice, but what’s new, that thing has been injured for five years.
The sports books have the potential of getting beat up pretty good this week because there are only two afternoon games, with one them being the perennial public favorite New England Patriots. With less options in the afternoon, that game takes on more of a Sunday or Monday night appeal where almost every dollar bet in the afternoon will be wagered on that game. Patriots to the OVER will have the same bad affect as an isolated night game.
NFL Betting Preview: Cleveland at Indianapolis
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Indianapolis -3 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno Power Rating: Indianapolis -0.5
It’s another week of NFL action and that means the Cleveland Browns are once again taking action at the betting windows. For whatever reason – none that I can think of – the Browns have drawn sharp money in each of the last four weeks. I disagree with that sentiment and still view the Browns as one of the worst teams in the NFL in most facets. The Browns did show strong second half life in their win against the Bengals last week. However, Cleveland was outgained by over 100 yards in the game, while +3 in the turnover department. This was more the Bengals beating themselves. Keep in mind the Browns broke an 11-game losing streak as last week was their first win in 329 days, against a division opponent as well. Said cornerback Joe Haden after the game, “It felt like we won the Super Bowl.”
Meanwhile, the Colts were manhandled by the Jets last week. It was going to be a tricky trip to New York, while the upstart Colts had pulled off an improbable victory the week before overcoming a 21-3 deficit against the Green Bay Packers. Of course, the young Colts were playing that game for their head coach, Chuck Pagano, who is fighting leukemia. Yes, the Colts are banged up on defense, but quarterback Andrew Luck will have his team focused this week. The spot screams the Colts on Sunday, and we’ll take the line value with the move towards the Browns.
NFL Betting Preview: Dallas at Carolina
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Dallas at Carolina
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Dallas -2 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Dallas -2 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Ratings: Carolina -3
Since their blowout win over the Giants on the opening night of the season, the Cowboys are 1-3 SU, their lone victory coming in non-covering fashion at home against Tampa Bay. Dallas’ weaknesses during this slump have been on full display. DeMarcus Ware has six sacks, but the rest of the team has combined for only four – opposing QBs have time to throw without a strong Cowboys pass rush. And DC Rob Ryan’s insistence on using aggressive blitzing tactics in third-and-long situations has burned them repeatedly; unable to get off the field on third downs. With top draft choice CB Morris Claiborne questionable with an ankle injury, that may be a continuing problem again this week.
Tony Romo hasn’t thrown a TD pass on third down all year, and he's got the single lowest QB rating in the league on third downs! The Cowboys receiving corps has suffered from the dropsies all year, with crucial drops by Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree costing them the game last week. The offensive line played better last week with the return of starting center Phil Costa, but leading rusher DeMarco Murray hurt his foot leaving the Cowboys without their best power rusher. This is a talented but frustrating team right now; a squad that can’t seem to overcome their numerous mistakes on a weekly basis. And their 1-9 SU mark in their last ten October ballgames makes the Cowboys status as road favorites here somewhat tenuous.
The spot certainly favors Carolina, with the Panthers coming off their bye week following a string of three consecutive defeats. But coaching and chemistry questions persist in Carolina even after the bye, for a team that has lost eight games since the start of the 2011 campaign by a TD or less. The Ron Rivera coaching tree (Norv Turner and Lovie Smith) hasn’t impressed bettors – it’s really looking like a legitimate concern that Rivera was interviewed for SEVEN different head coaching jobs without getting hired prior to his arrival here.
The Panthers offense has been their biggest weakness so far this year; held to a dozen points or less three times in five games. Their only touchdown in an ugly home loss before the bye was on an interception return touchdown, as QB Cam Newton had career lows in completion percentage and passing yards against Seattle. The Cowboys defense, despite some third down woes last week, still ranks #2 in the NFL in total yardage allowed. And the Panthers defense has been solid all year, despite facing a schedule that’s seen them face Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan in the last month. Put it all together and this total is a notch or two too high!
NFL Betting Preview: New York at New England
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
New York Jets at New England
Alf Musketa's Recommendation: See analysis
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -11 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: New England -10.5 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -12.5
The Patriots are clearly better than their 3-3 record. They have lost three games by a combined total of just four points and in their three wins they have won by a combined total of 55 points. They could easily be 6-0 and ranked as the best team in the NFL. However, turnovers, missed field goals and a weak secondary sometimes make New England look like an average team. What I am most impressed with this season is that they have a much improved running game with a new dynamic duo of running backs; Stephan Ridley and Brandon Bolden (questionable for Sunday). They also rely on Danny Woodhead to keep the chains moving. Last week the Patriots’ running game was virtually shut down by Seattle's second ranked run defense gaining just 86 yards on 26 carries (3.3 ypc). New York's run defense ranks 28th and when New England can run the ball, Tom Brady is much more potent. Brady has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception in their last three meetings with the Jets and now gets to face them without All-Pro CB Darrell Revis = advantage Patriots.
When the Jets are able to run the football as we saw last week when RB Shonn Greene had a career day with 161 yards, they can beat most teams. But those numbers were against the Colts who rank 29th against the run. The Patriots rank 6th against the run and there will surely be a game plan in place that will force Mark Sanchez and his 49.7% completion percentage to pass.
The Jets have played three straight home games and now face their most heated division rival on the road. They lost 37-16 and 30-21 to the Patriots last year. However, with the underdogs such a strong bet this season (56-31-4 ATS) and New England 5-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite we are reluctant to lay the points. If the line drops below 10 points we will find a way to get involved with the Patriots and tease them down under a field goal.
Ravens at Texans: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-7, 48)
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense has carried the team for years. Now, more than ever, it’s time for Joe Flacco and the offense to lead the way. Baltimore’s already hamstrung defense will be missing emotional leader Ray Lewis and top cornerback Lardarius Webb - both out for the season - when the Ravens head to Houston to face the Texans, who are looking to rebound from their first loss. The Texans’ sixth-ranked rushing attack was stuck in neutral and their defense was gashed for six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers in a 42-24 loss to Green Bay last Sunday night.
Baltimore may have had an even worse week, even though it ran its winning streak to four games. The Ravens allowed 481 yards, including a franchise-record 227 rushing yards, in a 31-29 win over Dallas – a game in which Lewis tore his biceps and Webb suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The teams faced off in the divisional playoffs last season, with the Ravens beating the Matt Schaub-less Texans 20-13 to improve to 6-0 against Houston. Webb intercepted T.J. Yates twice in that contest.
LINE: Texans -7, O/U 48
ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-1): Flacco, an impending free agent, has been pining for a new contract and now is the time to prove his worth. After going a modest 17-of-26 for 234 yards and a touchdown against the league’s top-ranked pass defense, he gets another stern test against the Texans’ seventh-ranked pass defense (213.2 ypg). It will be interesting to see how much Baltimore uses its no-huddle offense considering it forces the injury-ravaged defense to be on the field more than usual. That unit has struggled to generate a pass rush (its 11 sacks ranks 23rd) minus reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs, (Achilles) and is 26th against the run (136.5). Therefore, Baltimore needs an offense that is averaging 26.8 points to continue to play well. They’ll continue to lean on RB Ray Rice, who is second in the league in yards from scrimmage (715), and play-making WR Torrey Smith, who ranks fourth in the league in yards per reception (18.8).
ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-1): Houston received a mulligan after running into a desperate and angry Green Bay team last week. The Texans' first order of business will be re-establishing their dominant rushing attack after Arian Foster, the league’s second-leading rusher (561 yards), was held to 29 yards on 17 carries with a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs. Meanwhile, the defense, which is without LB Brian Cushing (torn ACL), still leads the AFC in scoring (19.2) despite the hiccup against Green Bay. Leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate J.J Watt was the lone bright spot in the loss, racking up two more sacks to push his league-leading total to 9.5. Watt has also batted down a league-best eight passes at the line of scrimmage.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans’ last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The 37-year-old Lewis missed four games last season with a toe injury and the Ravens went 4-0 in his absence.
2. Suggs, who reportedly suffered the injury playing pickup basketball in the offseason, was activated from the physically unable to perform list and returned to practice Wednesday. The team anticipated a return around November, but reports have surfaced that Suggs plans to plan Sunday.
3. Foster ran for 132 yards and a touchdown in the playoff loss to Baltimore, making him the only player to rush for 100 yards against the Ravens in the postseason.
Jets at Patriots: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)
Despite all of the "Sky is Falling" talk, Rex Ryan's New York Jets find themselves in a four-way tie atop the AFC East as they renew their rivalry with Tom Brady and the shellshocked New England Patriots on Sunday in Foxborough. The Jets ended a two-game skid by returning to their ground-and-pound ways against the overmatched Indianapolis Colts last week as Shonn Greene ran for a career-best 161 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-9 win.
That strategy has quieted some of the Mark Sanchez-Tim Tebow controversy for the moment, but the Jets will likely have to throw the ball more than 18 times to keep up with the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. Especially since Brady and company are fuming after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning 24-23 defeat to Seattle – a loss that sent them to their worst start in seven years. History says Brady's bunch will bounce back against the Jets. The Patriots have won two straight and 15 of the last 20 meetings, including the last three regular-season meetings by a combined score of 112-40. Brady threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns – two to All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski - in a 37-16 romp in New Jersey last season.
LINE: Patriots -10.5, O/U 47.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT THE JETS (3-3): Ryan is trash-talking once again after the Jets bludgeoned the rebuilding Colts. He said of the Patriots: “I want them to know, and they know, that I think we’re going to beat them.” In order to back up Ryan’s words, the Jets need another big game from Greene, who had been averaging 2.7 yards over the previous four contests. And with Bilal Powell (shoulder) and Joe McKnight (high ankle sprain) both out, he’ll be the workhorse against the NFL’s sixth-ranked rush defense (82.7 ypg). Sanchez will have to throw for more than 82 yards. The embattled fourth-year quarterback has the worst completion percentage (49.7) in the league, which has led to some cameo appearances from Tebow.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (3-3): The 3,000-plus mile plane ride back from Seattle must have felt longer than the line at Starbucks after the Patriots let a 23-10 lead slip away in the final 7:31. The defense, which let Sidney Rice get behind it for the winning 46-yard touchdown, is largely to blame, but Brady was not absolved of guilt. He threw two touchdowns but was intercepted twice – once in the end zone – and also had a costly intentional-grounding penalty in the red zone at the end of the first half. Brady finished 36-of-58 (a career high in attempts) for 395 yards. He was forced to throw an inordinate amount because the Patriots, who entered third in the league averaging 165.4 rushing yards, were held to 87 yards on the ground. New England, which welcomed back TE Aaron Hernandez from a month-long absence last week, is still averaging a league-best 31.3 points and 445.3 yards.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Week 7 games.
* Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four October games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Since 2009, the Patriots have lost seven games in which they led with less than five minutes remaining in regulation - tied for third most in the NFL.
2. The Jets’ defense, which is ranked 30th in third-down conversion rate (46.0), will face its toughest test since star CB Darrelle Revis (torn ACL) went down three weeks ago.
3. The Patriots announced on Twitter that the team will wear the popular throwback red uniforms, circa 1992, featuring the helmet logo of “Patriot Pat” snapping a football.
Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 6 Recap
The 2012 NFL season has been all about the underdogs when it comes to sides but totals haven’t seen a strong lean either way. Despite watching the ‘over’ go 9-4-1 last week, the ‘over’ barely holds a slight edge (46-44-1) on the season. And if it wasn’t for plenty of second-half explosions this season, the ‘under’ would be ahead. Last week, total players saw two ‘under’ tickets get burned in the final two quarters.
The Buccaneers led the Chiefs 7-3 at halftime but the two teams combined for 38 points in the second and two of the scores were defensive touchdowns. Take away those points and the game goes ‘under’ the closing total of 38.
Even though Philadelphia and Detroit combined for 11 scores (7 FGs), the Eagles only led 7-6 at halftime over the Lions and only six points were posted in the third quarter. Fortunately for ‘over’ bettors, a couple big plays and key kicks sent the game into overtime and the combined 49 points barely slipped ‘over’ the total of 46 ½.
Total System Play
Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. Even though the system went 4-3 (57%) in 2011, the system has gone 31-15-2 (67%) over the last eight seasons. This year, the system only comes into play twice and the first matchup goes this weekend.
Green Bay at St. Louis: The Packers will be playing their third straight road game this Sunday when it visits St. Louis. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in each of the last two games but the Rams have seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive outings. The number opened at 44 and jumped to 45 quickly. Most would expect the Packers to get a minimum of four scores in this spot, especially after watching them drop 42 on a solid Houston defense last week. However, can the Rams help the cause? It’s hard to answer yes when you realize that St. Louis has 15 field goals and only eight offensive touchdowns.
Clear-Cut Under?
Two other teams in the NFL that have more field goals than offensive touchdowns are Arizona and Minnesota. Should we be surprised that the Vikings (4-2) and Cardinals (5-1) have a combined ‘under’ record of 9-3? This week, the two teams meet indoors from the Metrodome and the total is hovering around 40 points. Minnesota allowed 38 points to Washington last week but 14 came from a defensive touchdown and a busted run by quarterback RG3. The Cardinals have only scored a combined 23 points in two road games and the Vikings have only given up 23, 13 and 7 in three home games. It’s a low number but it’s low for a good reason too.
Line Moves
The smart money went 0-2-1 with their total moves in Week 6. Below are the Week 7 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.
Baltimore at Houston: Line opened at 47 and jumped to 48 ½
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 51
Jacksonville at Oakland: Line opened 42 ½ and jumped to 44
Divisional Battles
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Highest total (51) on the board here and you could be scratching your head based on recent history. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four, plus the combined points have never been higher than 42. Things have certainly changed this season! The Redskins (5-1) are a clear-cut ‘over’ team behind a solid offense (30.7 PPG) and weak defense (28.3 PPG). New York has both a better offense (33 PPG) and defense (19 PPG). However, the Giants have surrendered 24, 34 and 27 points in their three home games.
N.Y. Jets at New England: All signs point to an ‘over’ look here, even though the total is 47 ½ points. The Patriots have put up 30-plus points in four of their six games. The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 for New England. The Jets have busted 20-points three times this season but those instances came against teams with losing records. Against quality clubs (including Pittsburgh), the Jets have scored 10, 0 and 17 points. The ‘over’ has gone 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (3-2) and Bengals (4-2) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and that’s probably why gamblers are staring at a total of 45. These teams haven’t seen an ‘over/under’ this high since they met in October of 2007 (48). Pittsburgh’s defense is normally considered stout but the unit has allowed 31, 34 and 26 on the road, all three easy ‘over’ tickets.
Under the Lights
For the first time all season, gamblers saw all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number. The Titans-Steelers matchup on Thursday started fast and slowed down but a 20-point fourth quarter helped the ‘over’ cash. Overall, the ‘under’ stands at 13-7 on the season in games played in primetime spots and that includes this past Thursday’s game between Seattle and San Francisco.
Fearless Predictions
We took a couple steps backwards last week with our straight bets and teaser but were fortunate to hit the team total wager. Despite losing $220, we’re up $130 after five weeks and looking to add to the bankroll this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Green Bay-St. Louis 44 1/2
Best Under: Cleveland-Indianapolis 46
Best Team Total: Under New York Jets 18 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 35 1/2 Green Bay-St. Louis
Over 42 Washington-New York Giants
Under 54 1/2 Pittsburgh-Cincinnati