Week 1 Line Moves
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Some of the biggest line moves we'll see will happen in Week 1 after the initial numbers were released back in the spring. The LVH (Las Vegas Hotel and Casino) Sportsbook has made the proper adjustments heading into the season opening games as we'll take a look at why some of these games moved.
Patriots at Bills
LVH Opener: New England -7
Current Line: New England -9½
The Bills were leaning towards rookie E.J. Manuel as their opening day quarterback, but a minor knee surgery put the former Florida State standout on the shelf. Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the preseason, opening the door for ex-Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel to get the starting nod in Week 1.
Buccaneers at Jets
LVH Opener: Pick-em
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3½
It's rare to see the Bucs listed in the road favorite role, but the quarterback issues in New York caused the line move. Mark Sanchez will sit out the opener after injuring his shoulder in the third preseason game, as rookie Geno Smith is set to make his debut in Week 1. Also, former Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis will face his old team as a member of the Bucs following a torn ACL suffered last season.
Chiefs at Jaguars
LVH Opener: Kansas City -2½
Current Line: Kansas City -3½
The Jaguars look to be one of the bigger disasters in the NFL this season with their substandard quarterback play. Blaine Gabbert missed the final two games of the preseason, but the Jacksonville quarterback is hoping to play on Sunday.
Vikings at Lions
LVH Opener: Detroit -3
Current Line: Detroit -5
The money is starting to pour in on the Lions, who finished last season at a disappointing 4-12. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, but the Vikings stumbled to a 1-3 mark in the preseason.
Raiders at Colts
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -7
Current Line: Indianapolis -9½
Oakland is unsure about its starting quarterback heading into Sunday's matchup, but early indication is Terrelle Pryor will start ahead of Matt Flynn. Also, plenty of public money is headed the Colts way following their return to the playoffs last season.
Cardinals at Rams
LVH Opener: St. Louis -6
Current Line: St. Louis -5
St. Louis had its struggles in the preseason, as the improved NFC West will look for a boost from the Rams and Cardinals at the bottom of the division. Arizona won three of four exhibition games, while seeking revenge after getting swept by St. Louis in 2012.
Eagles at Redskins
LVH Opener: Washington -5½
Current Line: Washington -3½
The Redskins will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback just nine months after tearing his ACL in the playoff defeat to the Seahawks. The Eagles will stick with Michael Vick under center as Philadelphia hopes to use the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly to try and stun the Redskins.
NFL Betting Week #1
By Carlo Campanella
Sportspic.com
Baseball bettors already know that the money line can offer tremendous value, only having to handicap the winner of the game, rather than worry about how many points they'll win by. We'll discuss the NFL money line for week #1 action, but in the future, we'll talk about betting parlays, teasers and other wagering options.
The money line that stands out in Week One's football picks is one of the two Monday Night Football games. The Houston Texans (-150) are favored by 3-points at San Diego (+$130). For those of us that don't usually bet the money line, you only need to select the winner of the game WITHOUT the point spread. The -150 means that you would wager $150 to win $100. So, if the Texans win you collect the $100, but if the Texans lose, you'd pay $150. In this same game, the underdog Chargers are +130, meaning that anyone betting the Charger would bet $100 to win $130, or collect $130 if San Diego won, but would pay only $100 if they lost the wager.
Why do the Texans offer value when it comes to football picks on the money line? First off, these Texans have gone 20-6 outright during their last 26 games which they are favored to win. This means if you bet Houston the last 26 games they were favored on the money line, you would have collected 20 games and only lost 6 times! They've won their season opener 3 straight years behind Head Coach Gary Kubiak, winning ALL 3 of those openers by double-digits; 10, 20 and 24 point victories! Houston was a solid 12-4 last season, while allowing opponents to just 21 points per game, holding six of those 16 foes to 13 points or less.
Expect those numbers to only get better this season as the Texans added free safety Ed Reed from the Super Bowl champion Ravens' defense. The Texans were solid road warriors last year, posting a 6-2 record away from home, only losing to the Patriots and Colts, both were playoff teams that went 7-1 and 6-2 at home last year.
They'll open against a Chargers squad that plays their first game behind new Head Coach, Mike McCoy, who was formerly Denver's offensive coordinator. Don't expect McCoy to win his first game as an NFL head coach, especially against a playoff-caliber squad like these Texans. For this free football pick
Play On: Houston Texans (-180 Money Line)
Week 1 Conference Games
Sportspic.com
In-conference games play a subtly important role when it comes to games down the stretch, but like we asked yesterday, how do teams approach such a game when it comes in the first week of the season?
Finding out some sort of sports handicapping strategy for making football picks in this subset for that first week is especially important this year, with eight games fitting this category.
Those games (with early lines included) are: Baltimore at Denver (-8.5); Miami (-1) at Cleveland; Oakland at Indianapolis (-7); Kansas City (-3) at Jacksonville; Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7); Seattle (-3) at Carolina; Green Bay at San Francisco (-4); and the latter Monday Night game, Houston (-3) at San Diego.
In the case of three of those games, the imposing pointspread of -7 or more make up the largest betting lines for the week.
With respect to the Ravens-Broncos contest, there have been nine in-conference matchups in that special game that began in 2003, with the home team compiling a 4-2-1 ATS mark.
For the other two clashes, when the total has been below 45, as it is with the Steelers-Titans game, the Over has been one of the solid NFL picks with both a 6-3 ATS and totals record. Going above 45 (like the Colts-Raiders) has seen the Over be successful on each of the four occasions it’s been played.
In the case of the Niners-Packers battle, home teams since 2002 that are within the narrow framework as a favorite of from -3.5 to -4.5, have gone over the total in five of the seven games played.
That leaves the four games that feature a home underdog. Two notable numbers that stand out are that since 2009, the road favorite has covered the pointspread in five of six games, while the Over has a 3-1-2 mark in those contests.
In the lone NFC contest with road chalk, the under had also been the way to go from 2001-08, with nine straight unders. However, in the past four seasons, the Over has been the call with a 4-0-2 mark.
Week 1 Divisional Games
Sportspic.com
With the first week of NFL picks getting closer for sports handicappers, this article will take a look at some of the trends that might factor into the six divisional games that dot the schedule during that opening weekend.
Divisional games are always important for teams down the stretch, but how do things usually turn out for a divisional favorite when it’s the first game on a team’s schedule?
There are three early divisional games on that first Sunday: New England (-7.5) at Buffalo; Minnesota at Detroit (-3.5); and Atlanta at New Orleans (-3). Later on, Arizona heads to St. Louis (-6); the Giants play in Dallas (-2.5) on Sunday night; and the first of the two Monday night games will have Philadelphia at Washington (-4.5).
For New England, recent history isn’t in their favor to cover the betting line that first week, since Week 1 road favorites have just a 3-7 ATS mark since 2010. However, those looking at totals should note that the Under has provided many winning NFL picks over the last decade, with a 15-8 mark.
In Detroit, things might have a more positive tint for sports handicappers when they realize that since 2003, home favorites of between -3.5 and -5.5 have beaten the pointspread in seven of the ten games that fit that criteria. That bodes well for the Lions.
It also bodes well for the Saints, since the numbers are close to the same when you include those games in which the pointspread is just a field goal, In those cases, the home favorite has a 9-4-1 ATS mark. When the sports handicapping microscope looks at just Week 1 games in which the line is -3, the numbers get even better, and from a wider range: since 1990, Week 1 home favorites of exactly -3 have an 8-1-1 ATS mark.
When Arizona touches down in St. Louis, it will be interested to note that over the past decade, home teams that have been favored from -5 to -7 in a divisional head-to-head have covered the pointspread in just four of 12 games. Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Rams are headed for defeat, but it certainly gets the attention of anyone whose interest leans in finding possible NFL picks.
In the Sunday night battle, while the Cowboys recent history is nothing they’d care to remember, they should be aware of this bit of history: since 1990, Week 1 home favorites of less than a field goal have managed to beat the betting line often, sporting a 9-3-1 ATS mark. If that span of years is too much for some, since 2007, home teams in this category have a 3-0-1 mark.
Finally, the betting line for the early Monday night matchup has danced around, so we’ll look at teams that have been favored from between -4 and -6. Going all the way back to 1990 offers a ho-hum 10-7 ATS record, but over the past decade is a much more notable 5-2 mark.
These offerings are based on historical precedence, but like any sports handicapping premise, they are hardly a guarantee. Until September 8, such projections will have to do.