NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.
Covers talks about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3
Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.
That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.
“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”
Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.
Sportsbook.ag’s opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.
“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Cowboys -4; Move: Giants -1.5, Giants -1
This NFC East rivalry gets renewed right away with a 4:25 p.m. Eastern start on Sunday. Unfortunately, the game lost a lot of its luster and the Cowboys lost their status as home favorites when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury in Week 3 of the preseason.
Romo is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season for Dallas, which went 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last year without Romo almost the entire way. He broke his collarbone in Week 2, came back at Thanksgiving and reinjured it, then missed the rest of the season.
The Giants didn’t fare much better in 2015, going 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
“Before the Romo injury, the Cowboys were a solid 4-point favorite. But once we learned he was out, we immediately closed the game and assessed the situation,” Childs said. “While everyone is in love with Romo’s backup, Dak Prescott, he’s still a rookie and hasn’t taken a regular-season NFL snap, so we have major reservations about his ability until proven otherwise.
“With a major downgrade at quarterback, we dropped the line a full 5 points, making the Giants a small 1.5-point favorite. We’ve written good action at that price, but we booked some sharp action on the Cowboys at +1.5 and moved it down a half-point to Giants -1.”
CG experienced similar movement, though the game is now rated a toss-up.
“In Week 1 last year, the same game opened Cowboys -7,” Simbal said of a contest Dallas won 27-26 at home. “After some of the Giants’ offseason moves, and the move toward the Giants in futures, the opener here was Cowboys -4.5. After the Romo injury, it went to a pick.”
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -1; Move: Cardinals -4, Cardinals -6
It’s another game more about who’s not playing than who is, with Tom Brady not under center for the Patriots while he serves a four-game suspension over DeflateGate. Once that decision came down in late April, the line took off in favor of the host Cardinals.
“These are both very even and popular teams, so Arizona (initially) got the slight nod of being a 1-point favorite at home,” Simbal said. “Once the Brady suspension broke, it went all the way up to 6.”
New England was 13-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS last year, bowing out in the AFC Championship Game, a 20-18 loss to Denver as a 3-point road favorite. Arizona (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2015) reached the NFC Championship Game but got torched at Carolina 49-15 as a 3-point underdog.
Childs said Sportsbook – which opened the Pats at -1 – took the game down even before the Brady news, based on chatter that the courts were going to uphold the suspension. After the decision came down, the game went back up with Arizona at -5.
“We saw real nice, two-way action,” Childs said. “More times than not, going from Brady to Jimmy Garoppolo would require a much bigger line move, in my opinion. But when considering Bill Belichick has had all summer to game-plan, we didn’t want to give more than 6 points to arguably the best coach in the NFL.
“That said, sharp money as well as some public money has pushed this line to 6. I believe that money represents Garoppolo’s struggles in the preseason. He flat-out didn’t look all that good.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins – Open: Steelers -3; Move: none
Both these teams made the playoffs last year, and Pittsburgh is among the shorter favorites this season to win the Super Bowl. Unlike the aforementioned three season openers, though, the line in this contest has been steady.
“The Steelers are about a touchdown better on a neutral field, so Washington got 3-4 points for being at home,” Simbal said. “The opener here of -3 was fine since there has been little movement.”
The Steelers went 11-7 SU, 9-6-3 ATS last season, bowing out in the divisional playoffs with a 23-16 loss as 7-point ‘dogs at Denver. The Redskins won a flagging NFC East with a 9-7 SU and ATS mark, then lost to Green Bay 35-18 as 2-point home chalk in the wild-card round.
Sportsbook bounced back and forth between its opener of 3 and 3.5 a couple times, with the three-game suspension of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell weighing into a shift back to 3. But Pittsburgh continues to get the bulk of the action.
“The Bell suspension really hasn’t stopped support for the Steelers,” Childs said. “With more and more money coming in on the road favorite, we went back to 3.5 about a month ago and haven’t moved off that number.
NFL Line Watch Week 1
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet now
Oakland at New Orleans (-1)
One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring, so any late movement is unlikely. This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch. The Saints were not all that impressive in the pre-season (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. NO hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.
Game to wait on
Carolina at Denver (+3)
Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent at last check) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a 3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time. Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games. No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.
Total to watch
New England at Arizona (47.5)
This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett. The usual suspects on offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-mover running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo. The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a sans-Bready New England, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. Could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.
NFL Week 1 Picks and Leans ATS
Sportspic.com
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will start a rookie in this game after starting QB Tony Romo suffered a back injury in preseason. We'd normally stay away from a team with a QB making his first start, but this kid appears to be the real deal. In the preseason Dak Prescott completed 78.0 percent of his passes (39 of 50) throwing for 454 yards with five touchdown passes and rushed for two more with ZERO INTs. The Giants signed two corners in free agency and may be an improved unit and they'll need to be against the Cowboys who racked up 896 offensive yards against them last season. These two teams combined for 53 and 47 points extended the OVER streak in this series to 7 games. Take the OVER 46
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers had the most offensive line injuries in the NFL last year using a total of 24 different combinations over the campaign. That was the main reason for them finishing dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt. They go into this season with RG D.J. Fluker hobbled (check status), but the rest of the starters are good to go and we expect the running game to improve immensely this season. The passing game should excel this season with the extra protection if this unit can stay healthy and the return of WR Kennan Allen and the addition of the speedy WR Travis Benjamin. Remember this offense lead the league in yardage with Allen in the lineup amassing 423.3 yards per game. The Chiefs won 10 straight games in the regular season to grab a playoff spot and most of the key players returned this season. They do have some question marks on the defense with the loss of CB Sean Smith to free agency and injuries to starting LBs Justin Houston and Josh Mauga. We believe that this game could go down to the wire with Kansas City prevailing, but the visitor getting the money. Take the San Diego Chargers +7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins
A lot of experts think that this may be the Steelers year and it may be, but in our opinion this team is ripe for the picking early in the season. With RB Le’Veon Bell suspended for three games and Martavis Bryant for the season and the retirement of TE Heath Miller. RB DeAngelo Williams did a great job filling in for Bell last season when he was hurt last season, rushing for 907 yards, but he’s 33 now and he may have lost a step. The loss of Bryant for the year and his big play ability is huge with 14 touchdowns in 21 games! He’d come in handy Heath Miller against a Redskins secondary that is projected to be one of the best in the NFL with the signing of CB Josh Norman. Washington was one of the hottest teams down the stretch last season with a field goal loss their only defeat in the last six games. The offense was the strength last season for the Skins averaging 23.8 points per game including 34 or more in their last three games. I expect them to light up a Steelers’ defense that allowed 271.9 passing yards per game last season. The Redskins do have some injury concerns with RB Matt Jones and rookie WR Josh Doctson both questionable, but Monday reports suggest that both will play on Monday night. Two playoff teams from last season with the home team the dog suggests an overlay on the visitor. Take the Washington Redskins +3
NFL Week 1
Carolina @ Denver - Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.
Minnesota @ Tennessee - Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.
Cleveland @ Philadelphia - Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.
Cincinnati @ NJ Jets - Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.
Oakland @ New Orleans - Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.
Chargers @ Chiefs - San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.
Buffalo @ Baltimore - Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.
Chicago @ Houston - Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.
Green Bay @ Jacksonville - Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.
Miami @ Seattle - Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.
NJ Giants @ Dallas - Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?
Detroit @ Indianapolis - Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.
New England @ Arizona - Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.
Pittsburgh @ Washington - Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco - Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.
Armadillosports.com
Opening Line Report - Week 1
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Books adjust to quarterbacks, sharp action
Since the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted NFL Week 1 point-spreads and totals back on Apr. 14, several games have seen significant movement on the board. Some of that movement has been prompted by quarterback comings and goings (think Cowboys, Vikings, Eagles, Patriots), while other adjustments have been made as the wiseguys have showed their hands.
Here’s a quick look at all 16 games on Week 1 board, with perspective from Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons and The Wynn’s John Avello.
The numbers are current at the Westgate as of about noon ET on Tuesday.
Thursday, Sept. 8
Carolina Panthers (-3/-120, 42) at Denver Broncos
Opening line: Denver -3, 43.5
While the line for the 2016 season opener – a rematch of Super Bowl 50 – has swung 6 points since April, Salmons maintains a move from one team being a 3-point favorite to the other team laying a field-goal isn’t all that significant.
When he posted the original numbers five months ago, Salmons, said, "There was an assumption that Denver would go out and get an established veteran quarterback, which they didn’t. There was a lot of talk of them getting (Sam) Bradford, who they didn’t want to deal their No. 1 pick for."
The Wynn’s John Avello said of the earliest line, "3 seems like it might have been a little high, losing your starting quarterback, having a guy like (Mark) Sanchez looking like your starter who’s never been a winner in the NFL, going against a team that was in the Super Bowl. Making Denver a small favorite of 1 or so, I don’t think I would have argued with that."
With the bulk of betting action yet to come, this number may not be done moving, and if you’re on Denver, you may want to wait to make your wager.
"If I was betting it, I’d try to hold out and grab a 3.5," Salmons said. "I think you’ll probably see that at some point this week."
Sunday, Sept. 11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (- 3 even, 47.5)
Opening line: (-3.5, 48)
The hook drew early bettors, with line moving from Atlanta -3.5 to -3 after two weeks of wagering and continuing to trend in the Bucs’ direction since. Tampa Bay beat the Falcons in both meetings last season, but Atlanta was an 8-point favorite when they hosted the Bucs in November. Sunday’s point-spread marks quite a swing since then.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 41) at Tennessee Titans
Opening line: (-3, 42.5)
The Teddy Bridgewater injury has obviously impacted this spread, which moved from Minnesota -3.5 to -1 at the Westgate upon the news. That adjusted number looked good to favorite bettors, as the line was bet back up to -2.5. It’s been bouncing between -2.5 and -1.5 since.
Despite Shaun Hill getting the starting nod for the Vikes, Salmons believes the public will lay the points with the road team.
"They like Minnesota a lot," Salmons said. "I think they will talk themselves into betting Minnesota because they’re so much the better team in their eyes."
But, he added, Tennessee, Jacksonville and San Diego "look to be the biggest improvers this year from last year. The sharps respect Tennessee right now, so the sharps will certainly bet Tennessee in this game. It’s going to be public against sharps most likely."
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 41.5)
Opening line: (-7.5, 46)
This line was down to Philly -6 from its opener of -7.5 before Sam Bradford was traded to Minnesota. After the trade was announced Saturday, the Westgate reposted Philly -4.5, before another downward adjustment to -4. All those moves came before Eagles coach Doug Pederson named rookie Carson Wentz his Week 1 starter.
The total, too, started its downward trajectory before the Bradford trade, as the Westgate was dealing 42.5 on Saturday morning and reopened 42 later the same day.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 41.5) at New York Jets
Opening line: (PK, 43.5)
Sharp money has shifted this number in Cincy’s direction, according to Salmons, and it may not be done moving. "It looks like this has a decent shot to get to 3," Salmons said. In other words, if you like the Bengals, bet it now; if you’re on the Jets, wait.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1, 51)
Opening line: (-1.5, 51)
This line was bet as low as a pick ‘em by late April and as high as Saints -2 in June.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 44.5)
Opening line: (-7.5, 43.5)
There are -6.5s to be found as of this Tuesday writing, as the Chargers are finding some respect among the betting market with a step forward expected in San Diego.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-3/-120, 44.5)
Opening line: (-3 even, 43.5)
Some shops opened Ravens -2.5, but the number seems to have settled at the key number for Rex Ryan’s first game in Baltimore as coach of the Bills.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5, 44)
Opening line: (-4.5, 45.5)
The Texans have been a play among pro bettors at the Westgate, Salmons said, and J.J. Watt’s return to health has also helped move this line.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 48) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening line: (-3.5, 48)
Salmons sees the public coming heavy on the Packers here. "This will probably be our biggest game on Sunday," he said.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 44)
Opening line: (-7.5, 45.5)
Seattle opened tied with Philly and Kansas City as the biggest Week 1 favorites, but the number was far too short for bettors’ tastes, as every book in Vegas is now dealing -10.5.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (pick ‘em, 44)
Opening line: (-5.5, 49.5)
The Giants are 1-point road favorites at some betting locales, as gamblers fade the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.
With rookie Dak Prescott replacing Romo, Avello said that setting lines for games involving quarterbacks unknown at the NFL level is one of the most difficult things for a bookmaker to do.
"Dak Prescott has done okay in the preseason, but the NFL is about two things: the quarterback and the defense," Avello said.
"So if you don’t have the quarterback, you better have an outstanding defense, and if you don’t have a defense, you better have an outstanding quarterback. I’m not sure what Dallas has. I think the defense is adequate, and my read on Prescott is he’s a rookie in a league where he has no idea how to read defenses or how to control a game.…It’s really hard to gauge what he brings."
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 50.5)
Detroit is another wiseguy play, Salmons said. "Indianapolis has looked terrible this preseason with injuries on the offensive and defensive lines and the secondary," he said.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47)
Opening line: (PK, 51)
Yet another game with a dramatic point-spread swing prompted by a quarterback change. It’s clear to Salmons which his side his book will be rooting for Sunday night.
"I’m sure we’ll need the Patriots like crazy," he said. "I’m sure there’ll be a million money-line parlays, regular parlays and teasers (tied to the Cardinals)."
Monday, Sept. 12
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3/-120, 50) at Washington Redskins
Opening line: (-2.5, 51)
This line had crept up to Pitt -3.5 in early wagering, and the Steelers will be another big public team in Week 1. The house will need the Redskins to kill parlays and teasers tied to the Steelers, Salmons said.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 44) at San Francisco 49ers
Opening line: (-2.5, 47)
The number here was down to Rams -1.5 in late April, but underdog bettors may want to wait to see if it gets to +3. Also, note the 3-point downward swing from what seemed like a high opening total for these two offensively-challenged clubs.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By Monty Andrew
Covers.com
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 44.5)
Chargers' awful run D vs. Chiefs’ sensational rush attack
It’s a passing league, they say. The game is now all about quarterbacks and wideouts, or tight ends, or running backs who can catch the ball. Run-first approach? That’s so 2012. But apparently, nobody told the Kansas City Chiefs, who will run out the same philosophy they’ve used to decent success for years - smash the opposing defensive line into tiny pieces with a potent running attack.
Here’s why that should work to perfection this weekend: the Chargers are bad at defending the run. Downright miserable, in fact. Last season, San Diego allowed a whopping 4.8 yards per carry (second-worst in the NFL) and 17 touchdowns on the ground (fourth-most in the league). They were particularly susceptible to the big play, allowing 21 runs of 20 or more yards. And they forced just seven fumbles.
Contrast that with a Chiefs run attack that ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7), sixth in rushing yards per game (127.8 ), tied for first in rushing scores (19) and first in “rushing for a first down” percentage (26.6) and the Chargers are going to be in for a long day. That’s especially true if KC pounds the ball up the middle; the Chiefs had just seven negative runs and 19 carries of 10+ yards on center rushes in 2015, ranking among the league leaders in both categories.
Daily fantasy watch: RB Spencer Ware
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 46)
Giants’ up-tempo offense vs. Cowboys’ depleted defense
Occasionally, you can trust the previous year’s results sufficiently to make a judgment call the following season. And sometimes, you can take last year’s data and toss it in the nearest trash can. Bettors leaning toward the Giants shouldn’t just consider the potential dumpster fire facing the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott - they should also acknowledge that the Dallas defense is a wet paper towel.
“But Monty!” you cry out. “The Cowboys OWNED Eli Manning last year!” And you would be right - but this Dallas defense is far different from the one that made Manning look like an insurance salesman masquerading as a quarterback. No Randy Gregory. No DeMarcus Lawrence. No Rolando McClain. This Cowboys defense was expected to be subpar even with a full complement. Now? It’s going to have major issues keeping the Giants off the scoreboard.
Of particular concern is the Dallas pass rush, which generated just 31 sacks last season - tied for 25th league-wide - and forced only eight INTs, also ranking near the basement. And again, that was with better personnel than the Cowboys will boast in Week 1. Manning will have all the time in the world to set up, and with electrifying receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to throw to, it could be a very, very big day for Peyton’s little brother.
Daily fantasy watch: QB Eli Manning
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 44)
Dolphins’ bad starting position vs. Seahawks’ LOS dominance
Football is a game of field position; if you consistently start your drives 75-80 yards from the end zone, you’re going to have a difficult time scoring points. The Miami Dolphins know this well - they had one of the worst average drive start positions in the league last season, and will open the 2016 campaign against a Seahawks team that held foes to the worst starting position in the NFL in 2015.
Per Football Outsiders, Miami ranked 27th in average starting point last season (25.54). That was compounded by terrible showings in average plays per drive (5.37, 30th), average time of possession per drive (2:22, 29th) and Drive Success Rate, which measures how often a team achieves a first down or a touchdown on a specific drive (.661, 29th). The result: A pitiful 1.54 points per drive, good for 28th in the NFL.
The Seahawks’ defense ain’t what she used to be, but it’s still one of the most formidable units in the league. Teams facing Seattle had an average starting position of 23.61, a tenth of a yard better than second-place New England. Forcing teams to start that deep means plenty of forgiveness with regard to drive length; even though teams managed 5.81 plays per drive against the Seahawks - good for 15th - their combined DSR of .658 was sixth-lowest. Look for a lot of fruitless drives by the Dolphins this Sunday.
Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47.5)
Patriots’ receiving corps vs. Cardinals’ 1-2 DB punch
Bettors have plenty of reasons to expect Arizona to prevail by more than a touchdown, but we’re not here to address all of them. The focus here is on the major disadvantage New England’s primary wide receivers will face against what might be the most daunting defensive back combo in the entire league. Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Garoppolo! Remember, there’s no shame in starting your career 0-1.
Let’s start with the backfield, since everyone knows Bill Belichick loves to get his receiving backs involved. Arizona employs a blitz-heavy approach that negates the impact of those receiving backs, since they’re forced to pass block more. Teams threw to their RBs just over 16 percent of the time against Arizona last season, second-lowest in the NFL. Sorry, James White, but Sunday probably isn’t your day.
As for the rest of the non-Gronkowski targets, you might as well forget about them. Only six defenses saw more passes against thrown to WR1s than the Cardinals, thanks to stalwart cornerback Patrick Peterson. He grades at an 87.9 on ProFootballFocus, making him one of the top all-round cornerbacks in the game. And let’s not forget Tyrann Mathieu, a Swiss Army knife of a safety whose 94.1 PFF grade is the best in the league at his position. He’ll likely match up with Julian Edelman, which means a really long day for Julian Edelman.
Daily fantasy watch: Cardinals D/ST
Line Moves - Week 1
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Las Vegas sports books kicked off the 2016 NFL season to proportions maybe never seen before with massive handle and a big 21-20 Broncos home win over the favored Panthers. Bettors came strong and hard on the Panthers to exact revenge from the Super Bowl loss pushing the line from Denver -3 in April to Carolina -3.
"We had a ton of handle last night, over seven-figures," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "It might be the most action we'll see on a regular season game all year. It was double what the Steelers-Patriots kickoff game was last season and also way more than the next most handled game of Week 1 in the Sunday night game (Giants-Cowboys) last season.
"We needed the Broncos to win outright and the Panthers missing that last field goal was huge for us. It was our best scenario."
On Friday afternoon, Simbal discussed all CG Technology's major line moves since posting Week 1 numbers on April 15 to where they're at now. So far, they've only had three big wise guy plays and four games are stacked large with massive public parlay plays. Let's take a look at how all the numbers have shaped up over the long summer of waiting for NFL action.
CG Tech books opened Atlanta as a 3-point home favorite over Tampa Bay in April with a total 48, and the number has been spot on with no big takers on either side as the Falcons now sit -3 (EV) and 47.5. The Bucs swept both games last season and the Falcons went on a 2-10 ATS slide after covering their first four games. The Falcons were also the best UNDER team last season going 13-2-1.
Minnesota opened as a 2-point road favorite at Tennessee on the basis of Teddy Bridgewater starting and the games was bet up -3 (-120) in early August. But when Bridgewater went out with a season-ending injury the line was readjusted to -1.5 and then moved to -2 with either Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill in as the replacement (no announcement from coach Mike Zimmer as of Friday). The opening total of 43 has dropped down to 41. The Vikings went to 12-4-1 to the UNDER last season.
The largest line move from April's early numbers to now, aside from Thursday night's game that moved six points, has been Philadelphia dropping from an 8.5-point favorite over Cleveland all the way down to -3.5. A lot has happened since then, most notably the Eagles deciding to trade Sam Bradford and not start Chase Daniel, who followed new coach from Kansas City, and opt to build for the future and start rookie first-round pick Carson Wentz. The Browns went 0-4 in the preseason while the Eagles were 4-0.
"It's been all straight bets moving the number," said Simbal. "The smart guys have been taking the Browns all the way. We have 25-times more money on the Browns and can't find many takers on the Eagles, who we are going to need as one of our biggest decisions on Sunday."
Cincinnati opened a 1-point road favorite at the Jets and by August the number had moved to -2 and earlier this week it went to -2.5. The total has dropped from 43 down to 41. The Bengals went 12-3-2 ATS last season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road. The Jets have covered eight of its last 11 home games.
New Orleans opened pick 'em at home against Oakland with a total set at 50 and for over a onth now the Saints have been -1 and 51. The Raiders went 6-2 ATS on the road last season while the Saints lost four of eight at home where they allowed opponents to average 31.6 ppg. The Saints have gone OVER in five of six games the last three seasons when set as home favorite of -3 or less.
Kansas City opened as 7-point home favorites over San Diego and the number dropped this week down to -6.5 with the total also moving, jumping up from 43 to 44.5. The Chiefs have won the last four meetings -- all UNDER total -- and have covered four of the last five. The Chargers went 6-2 ATS on the road last season, three of them coming against AFC West opponents which ended a 0-9 ATS run against division foes.
"This is one of the three sharp plays we've had this week," Simbal said. "They like the Chargers."
Baltimore has been a strong 3-point home favorite throughout against Buffalo with the total moving from 43.5 to 44. The Ravens were one of the most disappointing teams last season covering just once at home last season.
Houston opened as a 6-point home favorite against Chicago and that's where it's at now, but not before the number dropped to -4.5 and then got as high as -6.5 earlier this week. The total has been bumped up from 44 to 44.5. "The Texans are one of the most bet public parlay games of the week," said Simbal.
Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite at Jacksonville and it was quickly bet to -4.5 and moved to -5 this week. The total rose from 47 to a high of 48, but has settled at 47.5 this week. The Packers have gone UNDER in 11 of its last 15 games, but are 9-2 to the OVER in their last 11 September games.
"Tons of public action on the Packers making it one of our biggest liabilities of the week," Simbal said. "There aren't many large bets, but tons of small action adding up quickly."
Seattle's number has been gradually moving higher for their home game against Miami, opening at -8.5 to -9 in July, then to -10 in August and to -10.5 on Saturday. The total dropped from 44.5 to 44 in August. The Dolphins have covered the number only five times in its last 21 games. "This is another one of those big parlay games for us; one-sided action on Seattle," said Simbal.
Dallas opened as 4.5-point home favorites against the Giants when Tony Romo was expected play, and bettors took the points dropping it to -3 (-120) in early August. When Romo hurt his back on his third snap of his preseason, all books took the game off the board and regrouped. Because rookie QB Dak Prescott looked so good in preseason, there wasn't too big an adjustment with the Cowboys being reposted at pick 'em. The 3-point move also occurred on the total with the number dropping from 50 down to 46.5. The Giants have covered the last three meetings and the OVER has happened in their last seven.
Indianapolis opened as 4-point home favorites against Detroit and got as high as -4.5, but it's been steadily dropping this week. A few books in Las Vegas are at -3-flat, while CG has moved from -3.5-flat to -3.5 (-105) to -3.5 (EV). The total has remained steady at 50. Detroit won and covered its final three games last season and have stayed UNDER in 14 of their last 18 road games. "Yeah, the sharps like the Lions this week," said Simbal.
Arizona was posted as 1-point home favorites over New England when Tom Brady was expected to play, but then his Deflategate suspension was upheld and he's miss the first four games. CG immediately moved the number to -6 and then Patriots money pushed them to -4.5. By May 28, the number got as low as -3.5, but it's been on a steady climb upward since getting to a high of -6.5 on Thursday until going back to -6 a few minutes later. The total has taken a dive as well going from 51.5 all the way down to 46.
"We found that Patriots money is there at +6.5, which is why we're down to -6 now, but we were bet all the way up with Arizona bets, and we've also got Arizona as one of the big public favorites on parlays," said Simbal.
In the early Monday night game, Pittsburgh has been a steady 3-point favorite at Washington throughout. The total has dropped from 50.5 to 49.5. The Steelers stayed UNDER in eight of 10 road games last season.
The west coast Monday night game has seen Los Angeles -- love saying that in the NFL again -- go from a 1-point favorite at San Francisco up to -2.5. The total has dropped from 46 down to 43. The 49ers have stayed UNDER in eight of their last 10 games against NFC West opponents. "We just don't want this game to land 44, because our only OVER bet was at 43," Simbal said. "Every other limit bet we took was on the UNDER."
So for a quick recap, the sharps betting at CG Tech books like Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. The dreaded four-team parlay cashing they fear the most is Green Bay hooked up to Arizona, Seattle and Houston. Prior to Thursday's result, it was a dreaded five-teamer that included the Panthers.
Pick Six - Week 1
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Bengals (-2½, 41½) at Jets
Cincinnati
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 12-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 9½ (Under -120)
The Bengals are fresh off their second AFC North championship in the last three seasons, even though Cincinnati was bounced in the Wild Card round against rival Pittsburgh. In 2015, the Bengals owned a fantastic 8-0 ATS record away from Paul Brown Stadium, including a 4-0 ATS mark as a road favorite. Cincinnati begins the campaign on the road for the seventh consecutive year, coming off opening week victories at Baltimore (2014) and Oakland (2015) the last two seasons.
New York
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Under -170)
The Jets were one of the most improved teams in football in 2015, jumping from four wins in 2014 to 10 victories last season. Four of New York’s first six games this season are away from Met Life Stadium, as the Jets are riding a five-game winning streak in season openers. The Jets are facing the Bengals for the first time since 2013 when Cincinnati ripped New York, 49-9 as six-point home favorites. New York covered in all three opportunities as an underdog last season, including outright wins over Indianapolis and New England.
Best Bet: Cincinnati -2½
Vikings (-2½, 41) at Titans
Minnesota
Preseason Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2015 Record: 11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -150)
The Vikings suffered a devastating blow when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ripped up his knee in his practice towards the end of training camp. Minnesota acquired Sam Bradford from Philadelphia to help strengthen the quarterback position with Shaun Hill the likely starter on Sunday. Mike Zimmer enters his third season as head coach of the Vikings, owning a terrific 27-9 ATS record, including a 12-4 ATS mark on the highway. Since losing to New England in 2014, Minnesota has covered seven consecutive contests against AFC foes, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark in 2015.
Tennessee
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 3-13 SU, 4-11-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 6 (Over -150)
The Titans equaled last season’s regular season win total in the 2016 preseason, as Tennessee tries to eclipse the .500 mark for the first time since 2011. For as bad as the Titans have been the last three seasons (12 combined victories), Tennessee has won three straight Week 1 contests, including a 42-14 blowout at Tampa Bay in 2015 as three-point underdogs in Marcus Mariota’s debut. The Titans struggled at Nissan Stadium last season by winning only once in eight opportunities, while going 3-5 ATS at home.
Best Bet: Minnesota -2½
Raiders at Saints (-1, 51)
Oakland
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Season Win Total: 8½ (-110)
The expectations are high in the East Bay for the Raiders, who are coming off a 7-9 campaign in Jack Del Rio’s first season in Oakland. The Raiders play three of their first four games away from the Coliseum, facing four teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2015 (Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens). Oakland fared better on the road than at home last season, posting a 4-4 SU record away from the Black Hole, while cashing in all six opportunities as an away underdog. However, Oakland failed to win a game against NFC competition, compiling an 0-4 SU/ATS mark in interconference play.
New Orleans
Preseason Record: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 (Over -140)
At one time, the Saints owned the most dominating home-field advantage in the NFL, going 22-5 from 2009 through 2011 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Those days are long gone in the Big Easy with New Orleans compiling an ugly 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS mark since November 2014, while the Saints have failed to produce a winning record in three of the last four seasons. Last season, the Saints performed well as a short home favorite, winning three of four times when laying three points or less at the Superdome.
Best Bet: Oakland +1
Packers (-5, 48) at Jaguars
Green Bay
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS
Season Win Total: 10½ (Over -160)
The Packers lost their fourth playoff game in overtime since 2007 in their divisional playoff defeat to Arizona in January. Green Bay tries to erase that memory as the Pack attempts to qualify for its seventh consecutive playoff berth this season. The Packers have lost three of their past four season openers, including road defeats at San Francisco (2013) and Seattle (2014). Since 2013, Green Bay has struggled on the road against AFC foes with a 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS record as two of those victories came by three points or less.
Jacksonville
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 5-11 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7½ (Over -120)
The Jaguars haven’t won more than five games in the last five seasons, but expectations are raised in north Florida this season. Under Gus Bradley, Jacksonville has put together a disastrous 1-11 SU/ATS against NFC competition since 2013, while going 4-10-1 ATS as a home underdog in this stretch. Jacksonville covered the last time it faced Green Bay in 2012, but that came as a 16-point underdog in a 24-15 defeat at Lambeau Field. The Jaguars haven’t won a season opener under Bradley with all three losses coming by double-digits.
Best Bet: Green Bay -5
Dolphins at Seahawks (-10½, 44)
Miami
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 (Under -130)
The Dolphins travel to the Pacific Northwest for the first of three games on the west coast this season. Miami sat in the cellar of the AFC East in 2015 as the offense looks for a spark under new head coach Adam Gase. The Dolphins have a few things going their way on Sunday by owning a 3-1 SU/ATS record the last two season on the road against NFC foes, while winning three straight season openers. Since 2012, the Dolphins have posted a 1-5 SU/ATS record as an underdog of at least eight points, which includes an 0-5 SU/ATS ledger on the highway.
Seattle
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10½ (Over -145)
The Seahawks face five non-playoff teams in their first five games before a showdown with the Cardinals in Week 7. Seattle’s home-field advantage wasn’t as strong as years past, going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS after losing only two games at CenturyLink Field from 2012-14. However, the Seahawks have been successful covering heavy numbers from the end of 2014 through last season, going 6-2 ATS when laying at least 10 points. Since 2009, Seattle has hosted games in Week 1 three times and the Seahawks have taken care of business by winning all three games by 20 points or more.
Best Bet: Seattle -10½
Giants at Cowboys (-1, 46)
New York
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
2015 Record: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -160)
It was a rough start to the preseason for Big Blue, who scored a total of 10 points in its first two losses before beating the Jets and Patriots to finish 2-2. New York has lost five consecutive season openers, including three of those defeats against Dallas. Last season, the Cowboys rallied past the Giants, 27-26, but New York managed a cover as seven-point road underdogs in Week 1. Each of the last seven matchups in Dallas between these NFC East rivals have eclipsed the OVER with the losing team scoring at least 24 points each time.
Dallas
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -125)
The Cowboys ended last season without Tony Romo under center and begin the 2016 campaign with their starting quarterback sidelined due to a back injury suffered in the preseason. Rookie Dak Prescott will start for Dallas in Week 1 following a fantastic preseason, but the Cowboys have stumbled to a 5-17 ATS record as a home favorite since 2012. Last season, Dallas had issues with Romo sidelined by putting up a 1-11 record without the veteran quarterback on the field. The Cowboys have covered only once in their last six home games against division foes, which came against the Giants in 2014.
Best Bet: Dallas -1
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Minnesota was being cagey all week about who would take first snap when Vikings open their season against Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. But, according to NFL.com the cat was let out of the bag. Coach Zimmer plans to have Shaun Hill under center.
Minnesota losing its starting QB is cause to ratchet up tension for a sports handicapper. However, whether it's Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford getting the call, Boat-Men's game plan remains same as the structure of coach Mike Zimmer's team since his arrival in 2014 is built around the running game (123.5 RYG) and playing defense (19.5 PPG).
Minnesota a cash cow in unfriendly territory under coach Zimmer (12-4 ATS), Titans the dregs of the league last year at 3-13 with a cash draining 4-11-1 record at the betting window, 2-14 in front of the home audience the past two years scoring just 16.5 points/game with a money-burning 3-11-2 record against the betting line, lay the small number (-2.0) being offered at Bovada.lv as Vikings and their go-to-guy Adrian Peterson run over Titans.
Total Talk - Week 1
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The NFL season officially kicked off Thursday and savvy total bettors had a great shot to middle the opener as Denver nipped Carolina 21-20 at home. Oddsmakers sent out an opening number of 43 in April and that number slowly dipped and eventually closed 40½ at most betting shops. For our purposes, we’ll grade the outcome as an ‘over’ and hope you were on the right side.
With that being said, I hope the ninth season of “Total Talk” ends in the black for all of us.
Here’s to a great season!
Line Moves
Sticking with moves, listed below are the biggest shifts as of Saturday afternoon from the opening numbers available in April. The largest adjustments were directly related to quarterbacks (Bridgewater, Romo, Brady) that will be missing Week 1 due to injuries and suspensions.
Minnesota at Tennessee: 42½ to 40
Buffalo at Baltimore: 43 to 44½
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: 49 to 46
Detroit at Indianapolis: 49 to 50½
New England at Arizona: 51 to 44½
Los Angeles at San Francisco: 46½ to 42½
Odds Note: As I’ve mentioned in previous pieces, I usually follow openers from CRIS (Bookmaker.eu) just because of their quickness of posting and overall volume but Las Vegas shops that get the job done are Westgate, Wynn and CG. If you like to follow the numbers, you should check out the VI Live Odds screen and coordinate with our customer service team to get a free trial.
Week 1
The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that are in play for Week 1.
Saints: Over 4-1 last five. The club is also 1-4 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40 and 42 in the setbacks.
Giants: Over 6-1
Bills: Under 3-0
Bears: Over 4-1
Bengals: Over 5-1
Lions: Over 5-0 last five. Offense has scored 27, 27, 34, 25 and 28 points the last five openers.
Packers: Over 5-0. The defense has allowed 30-plus points in four of the five during this span.
Rams: Over 3-1. Defense under Jeff Fisher has surrendered 27, 24, 34 and 31 points.
Divisional Matchups
Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season as the Buccaneers stifled the Falcons to 19 and 20 points while pulling off the rare sweep for Tampa Bay. The totals in those games ranged from 46½ to 47½ and this week’s number is in the same neighborhood. The big question mark for Sunday is Atlanta’s offense, which averaged 32.4 PPG in its first five games. However, that number was sliced in half (16.1 PPG) in the remaining 11 games. Tampa Bay (21 PPG) wasn’t exactly great offensively last season but some pundits believe new head coach Dirk Koetter should improve that number. Sticking with coaching, former Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is now Tampa Bay’s DC which could give the familiarity edge to the Bucs. Bettors should note that Atlanta has seen a combined 56.3 PPG in its last six home openers.
San Diego at Kansas City: Based on recent history between the pair, it’s a little surprising that the line has gone up. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and the Chargers have been held to 8.3 PPG during this span. Ken Whisenhunt returns to the Bolts as offensive coordinator and he should help an attack that struggled. However, Andy Reid loves the ground-and-pound style and for what it’s worth, the San Diego run defense was horrible in the preseason.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Very hard total to handicap due to the Tony Romo injury but this series is on an 8-2 run to the ‘over’ in the last 10 meetings. Neither the Giants (27.6 PPG) or Cowboys (23.4 PPG) were great defensively last season, which is part of the reason these teams have played to shootouts. Will those units improve? Can the rookie (Dak Prescott) continue his success in the regular season? The answers to those questions will definitely play a part in Sunday’s outcome.
Los Angeles at San Francisco: (See Below)
Under the Lights
New England at Arizona: I’d probably sit on the sidelines with this game just because of the Tom Brady-Jimmy Garoppolo situation for the Patriots. Arizona was a beast offensively (29.4 PPG, 399 YPG) last season and it’s known to be a front-runner, especially at home. I expect the Cardinals to get four to five scores in this game but I’m not sure if a short-handed New England squad will be able to answer, especially now with tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined.
Pittsburgh at Washington: High total for this game and it’s understandable considering the Steelers (25.4 PPG) and Redskins (23.9 PPG) have proven that they can put points on the board behind capable quarterbacks. Washington’s defense (24.4 PPG) is suspect on defense and that unit was exposed at the end of last season. Pittsburgh has gone 9-3 to the ‘over’ in its last 12 versus NFC teams while Washington has also been a decent ‘over’ lean (7-5) versus the AFC in the same span. Lastly, even though the Steelers won’t have running back Le’Veon Bell (suspension) available on Monday, bettors should note that he only played six games last season and the ‘under’ went 6-0 in those contests.
Los Angeles at San Francisco: Based on the recent angles, it’s hard to make an argument for the ‘over’ in this late-night tilt. These teams played to a pair of ugly outcomes last season and the ‘under’ cashed in both contests. The books sent out a bad opener (46) and it’s been pushed down to 43. Levi’s Stadium has been the best ‘under’ bet in football since it opened in 2014, watching the low side go 13-3 in the first 16 games. The Rams saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road last season.
Fearless Predictions
I hope everybody had a nice offseason and you’re ready to roll this fall. Remember it’s a long season and the feedback is always appreciated, both good and bad. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Green Bay-Jacksonville 48
Best Under: Buffalo-Baltimore 44½
Best Team Total: Over Philadelphia 22
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Green Bay-Jacksonville 39
Over Miami-Seattle 35
Over Pittsburgh-Washington 40½