NFL Week 10
Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2) - Steelers had four-game win streak snapped last week by Ravens' late 92-yard TD drive; surprising Bengals won/covered five in a row behind rookie QB Dalton. Cincy is only NFL team to win battle for field position in all eight games this season. Bengals held last six opponents to just 77 yards per game on ground. Steelers won seven of last nine against Bengals- they've won nine of last ten visits here, with eight of nine wins by 6+ points. Steelers are 4-9-1 vs spread in last 14 games as pre-bye favorite. Dogs are 0-3 vs spread the week after playing Titans. Over is 3-1 both in Bengals' last four games and Pitt's last four games overall, 3-0 in AFC North games this season.
Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4) - Since 2003, Chiefs are 3-11 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games, 0-6 last four years; they had four-game win streak ended by a winless Miami last week. Visiting team won all three Tebow starts this season, with Denver running ball for 225.3 yards/game; Broncos are 3-1 vs spread on road, winning at Miami/Oakland, losing by 3 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Lambeau. Chiefs have only one TD in last five red zone drives, are 2-2 at home, with dog winning all four games SU. Denver lost six of last eight visits here, but they've won first series meeting vs Chiefs in eight of last ten seasons. Six of eight Denver games went over the total; last three Chief games stayed under.
Jaguars (2-6) @ Colts (0-9) - This game is Indy's biggest remaining hurdle to a winless season and right to draft Andrew Luck. Colts are 9-3 in last 12 series games, winning four of last five, but only one of four wins was by more than 7 points. Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing by 7-7-7-2-10. Indy failed to cover last five games, losing last four by average of 37-10, with a -9 turnover ratio. Jaguars lost six of last seven games, scoring 14 or less points is six of the seven- they've gone 3/out on 23 of last 47 drives. Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in AFC South games. Since 2001, Jaguars are 6-16 as road favorites. Indianapolis was outscored 75-14 in first half of their last three games.
Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4) - Dallas won seven of ten series games, winning 25-24 in wild ’07 Monday nighter last time teams met. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Bills lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, during the Emmitt Smith holdout. Buffalo is 4-0 when it scored 31+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t; Cowboys allow an average of 17.5 ppg at homer. Teams are 0-3 as underdogs week after facing the Jets; teams are 1-4-2 vs spread week after playing Seattle. Dallas is 2-8 vs spread in last ten games as home favorite, 1-3 this year. AFC East road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East home favorites are 3-7. Last four Cowboy games stayed under the total.
Texans (6-3) @ Buccaneers (4-4) - Houston won/covered its last three games, outscoring opponents 51-10 in first half; they’ve allowed 40-25-29 points in their losses, 24 or less in all six wins. Bucs lost three of last four games; they’ve scored more than 24 points one time this season. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 16-3 here eight years ago, in their only visit. Houston is 5-4 SU in pre-bye games, despite being underdog in eight of the nine games; three of those five wins are by 4 or less points. Teams are 1-6 (1-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 0-4 as underdogs week after playing the Saints. AFC South underdogs are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road. NFC South dogs are 5-5, 2-1 at home. Under is 6-3 in Texan games this season, 5-1 in last six Tampa Bay tilts.
Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (2-6) - First road game in five weeks for Tennessee squad that lost three of last four games; Titans are 1-4 when they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Carolina has held only one team (Jaguars, in a monsoon) under 20 points this season. Surprising lack of running game (100+ yards in only one game, 112 at Browns in Week 4) has hurt Titans, who lost two of three on foreign soil. Panthers are 2-6 despite improved QB play this year; rookie Newton has engineered 15 TD drives in his last five games- they’re 2-3 at home, allowing 10-20 points in their two wins, 24+ in the six losses. Carolina is 3-2 in five series meetings, with four of five decided by 13+ points; teams split pair of meetings here, with Titans’ last visit in ’06.
Redskins (3-5) @ Dolphins (1-7) - Miami is favored for first time this year; they’re an incredibly bad 6-29 vs spread last 35 times they were a home favorite. Hard to believe these teams met in two Super Bowls; home team won eight of other ten series games, with Redskins 0-4 on South Beach, losing by 3-2-1-7 points. Washington is 0-4 since its bye and was impotent in last two games, scoring one TD on 23 drives with two FGs tried and 10 3/outs. Skins are 1-3 on road, losing by 2-13-23 points, with only win at 1-7 Rams; they’ve turned ball over 14 times in last five games (-8). Dolphins are 0-3 at home, losing by 14-10-3 points; they led by 15 with 3:00 left in last home game but still lost. Last seven Miami games, six of last seven Redskin games stayed under the total.
Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3) - Pre-bye road favorites are 6-0 SU (5-1 against spread) this year; Saints won/covered six of last eight pre-bye games. Atlanta won/covered last three games, scoring 28.3 ppg while running ball for 152.7 ypg; they scored 12-13-14 points (three TDs on 30 drives), 23+ in all five wins (18 TDs on 57 drives). New Orleans won eight of last ten series games in this underrated rivalry, winning four of last five visits here (won 26-23/17-14 in last two visits). Saints are 2-3 on road, losing last two on foreign soil, to Rams/ Bucs. Six of last seven series totals were 47+. Home teams are 5-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year, with four of the five games staying under total. Teams are 2-4 SU (dogs 0-2 vs spread) the week after playing the Colts; they are 5-1 SU, 22 as favorites week after playing the Bucs.
Lions (6-2) @ Bears (5-3) - This series has been swept last seven years; Detroit (-5.5) won first meeting 24-13 in Week 5 Monday nighter, just its third win in last 13 series games- they had 181 rushing yards, 214 passing, as Chicago started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line. Lions are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 33 ppg (11 TDs on 47 drives). Bears won/covered last three games (all three at night); this is their first day game since Week 4. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 18-5-29 points, with only loss to Packers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North games. Three of four Chicago home games went over total. Pre-bye road teams are 10-5 SU this season; under is 9-7 in those games (both teams were on road in London game). Lions converted on just 7 of last 39 third down plays.
Rams (1-7) @ Browns (3-5) - Cleveland coach Shurmur was Rams’ OC last couple years, so he has good insight on why team is so dreadful, but his Browns aren’t much better, losing four of last five games (win was 6-3 eyesore over Seattle). Browns are 1-3-1 as favorites this year, holding teams to 19-16-3 points in their wins- they allowed 20+ points in all five losses. Bradford returned at QB for St Louis last week and played well enough; this team moves ball (only 10 3/outs on last 46 drives, but also only five TDs (10 FG tries)). St Louis ran ball for 183-150 yards last two games, as Jackson looks healthy, but poor game management in last 2:00 cost them win in Arizona last week. Under is 4-1 in last five Ram games, 3-1 in Cleveland’s last four. Ram franchise actually started out in Cleveland, moving to LA in 1946.
Cardinals (2-6) @ Eagles (3-5) - Erratic Philly turned ball over 2+ times in six of last seven games (2-5); they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-9 since ’09. Since ’00, they’re 7-9 as double digit favorite. Arizona rookie Peterson has three punt return TDs in first eight NFL games, getting one in each of last two games- his presence will help Arizona field position- teams will start punting out-of-bounds so he can’t touch ball. Cardinals are 7-6-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-1 this year, losing away games by 1-3-24 (@ Vikings)-3 points. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are just 2-7 vs spread. Last meeting was 32-25 Arizona win in ’08 playoffs; Redbirds lost three of last four visits here (losses by 25-24-28 points) with last win here in ’01. Three of four Arizona road games stayed under total.
Ravens (6-2) @ Seahawks (2-6) - Major trap/sandwich game for Baltimore after huge win at Heinz Field last week and with Bengals on deck; they lost 26-13 (-6) at Tennessee in game after their last Steeler win, back in Week 2. Ravens won five of last six games, but last two were by FG each, after their first four wins were all by 15+ points- they’re 2-2 on road, 4-3 as favorites, 1-2 as road faves (since ’05, they’re 6-13 as road favorite). Home team won last three series games, with Ravens losing 27-6 here in last meeting, in ’07. Seahawks are 0-3 since bye, losing by 3-22-10 points, with two TDs on 34 drives, none of which started in enemy territory. Seahawks have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), four in six losses (-8). Six of eight Raven games went over total- they were held to 13-7 points in their two losses. Six of eight Seattle foes scored 23+ points.
Giants (6-2) @ 49ers (7-1) - Well-coached Niners are +12 in turnovers, with 2+ takeaways in 7 of 8 games, and only 7 giveaways all year; they held last three opponents under 70 yards rushing. One red flag for SF: of their last seven offensive TDs, only two of them covered more than half the field. Defense/special teams are carrying this team, as 10 of their last 46 drives started in enemy territory. 49ers are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 16-45-10 points (lost 27-24 at home to Dallas as 3-point dog). Jerseyites won six of last seven games, with road wins at Philly (29-16, +8), Arizona (31-27, -1.5), Foxboro (24-20, +9), with Manning leading game-winning drives late in last- they won last three meetings with 49ers, by 18-18-12 points. 49ers’ last three games stayed under total.
Patriots (5-3) @ Jets (5-3) - Surging Jets won/covered last three games, outscoring opponents 51-17 in second half; six of their last 20 drives started in enemy territory. Sputtering Pats allowed 25-24 points in losing last two games; they’re 4-0 this year when giving up less than 24 points, 1-3 when they allow more. NE gained at least 7.3 ypa in first five games; they’ve been at 6.5 or below in last three games, as they lack explosive WR opposite Welker. Home side won five of last six series games; Jets (+8) lost 30-21 in Foxboro in Week 5; they were outrushed 152-97, outgained 446-255- NE converted 7-14 on 3rd down, Jets 3-11. Pats lost last two visits here, 16-9/28-14- they haven’t swept this series since their 18-1 season in 2007. Four of last five Jersey games stayed under total.
Vikings (2-6) @ Packers (8-0) - Defending champs are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 8-26-21 points. Unbeaten Green Bay won 33-27 (-10) at Metrodome three weeks ago, despite Vikings outrushing them 218-114; Pack used 10-yard edge in average field position for win, as eight of 11 Viking drives started 80+ yards from goal line. 2-6 Minnesota has trailed at half in only two games; they’re 4-0 vs spread when they score 23+ points, 1-3 when they don’t. Divisional home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in NFC games. Pack is +11 in turnovers, taking ball away 2+ times in six of last seven games. Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 2-34-5-4 points. Rookie QB Ponder is from Texas, played at Florida State, so a November night in Lambeau could be new experience for him. Four of last five series totals were 52+.
Tip Sheet - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
It's crazy to think that games in Week 10 will dictate the playoff races in the NFL, but that is the case with several matchups this Sunday. Five afternoon contests have postseason implications for tiebreakers, including divisional battles between the Steelers and Bengals, Falcons and Saints, and the Lions taking on the Bears. We'll begin with an interconference battle of a pair of old Super Bowl rivals from the early 90's hooking up in Texas.
Bills at Cowboys (-5½, 48)
Dallas dominated Buffalo in Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII, as the two clubs meet at Cowboys Stadium on Sunday. The Cowboys (4-4) got back to .500 with a 23-13 victory over the Seahawks, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. Dallas sits two games behind New York in the NFC East heading into Week 10, while Buffalo is locked into a three-way tie atop the AFC East with the Jets and Patriots at 5-3. A Bills' win puts Chan Gailey's team into first-place temporarily, but Buffalo needs a bounce-back effort after getting throttled by the Jets at home in Week 9.
Buffalo has cashed the 'under' in each of the last two games following six consecutive 'overs' to begin the season, while being held to its lowest point total of the season last Sunday (11). The Bills look to improve on a 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS road mark, but the two defeats have come by three points each. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have registered four straight 'unders,' including a 3-1 record to the 'under' at home. Dallas isn't exactly a great wager as a home favorite, compiling a 2-8 ATS ledger in the last 10 contests when laying points in Arlington.
Steelers (-3, 41½) at Bengals
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Through nine weeks, who in their right mind would have believed that Cincinnati (6-2) would own a better record than a Pittsburgh (6-3) squad coming off a Super Bowl appearance? The Bengals are pushing the right buttons, while putting together a 7-1 ATS mark behind a rookie quarterback and a coach that was on the hot seat to begin the season. Pittsburgh has work to do inside the AFC North after losing for the second time to rival Baltimore, 23-20 as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday night.
Mike Tomlin's club has rebounded nicely following their first two losses this season with blowouts over the Seahawks and Titans. The Steelers have owned this series with a 7-2 SU/ATS mark since the 2006 season, including a 4-1 SU/ATS record in Cincinnati. Even though the Bengals have been listed as a home underdog once this season (a victory over Buffalo), Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS the previous 13 games in which it receives points at Paul Brown Stadium.
Saints at Falcons (PK, 50)
The top teams in the NFC South meet up at the Georgia Dome for the first of two matchups with the divisional lead on the line. New Orleans (6-3) jumped off the mat following the awful loss at previously winless St. Louis to beat Tampa Bay last Sunday, 27-16 as nine-point 'chalk.' Atlanta (5-3) cruised to a third straight win by dominating the pathetic Colts, 31-7 for its third road victory on the season.
The away team took both meetings last season, including a 17-14 triumph by New Orleans at the Georgia Dome in late December. However, the Falcons ended up winning the division title and clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. New Orleans has won eight of the past ten matchups in the series, including four of the last five in Atlanta. The Falcons have put together a strong 7-3 ATS record against division opponents the last 10 contests, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.
Lions at Bears (-2½, 45½)
The two teams that are fighting for second place in the NFC North behind the undefeated Packers hook up at Soldier Field for the second of two meetings. Chicago (5-3) is coming off a short week after an impressive Monday night triumph at Philadelphia, while Detroit (6-2) is fresh off the bye. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 away from Ford Field, as Jim Schwartz's squad goes for the season sweep of the Bears.
Detroit knocked off Chicago at home in early October, 24-13 as 6 ½-point favorites to improve to 5-0. The Lions dropped the next two games at home to the 49ers and Falcons, followed by a dominating performance at Denver. Chicago has responded well since that defeat at Ford Field by running off three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in four of its five victories this season. Lovie Smith's team hasn't lost focus following a road win, as the Bears are 7-2 ATS in this situation over the last nine contests.
Giants at 49ers (-3½, 42½)
If the playoffs started now, San Francisco (7-1) would have a first-round bye and host a division-round game at Candlestick Park. The 49ers are 2-1 against NFC East opponents as the Giants (6-2) invade the Bay on Sunday, looking for their second consecutive road underdog victory. New York rallied past New England in a thrilling 24-20 triumph as nine-point 'dogs, thanks to a late touchdown pass from Eli Manning.
The Giants are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS since an opening week loss at Washington, but Big Blue is just 2-5 ATS the last seven games off a road victory. New York has won and covered each of the last three meetings in the series, while heading out to San Francisco for the first time since a 24-6 blowout of the Niners in 2006. San Francisco owns a 4-0 ATS record as a favorite this season, while going 6-1-1 ATS since 2008 off a road win.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 10
By Colin Kelly
Every team in the NFL has reached at least the midpoint of the season. We’ve got one unbeaten team, one totally beaten team and everything in between. And this week, there are no byes and even a Thursday night game. Let’s get to the Week 10 poolies' cheat sheet:
Oakland at San Diego (-7)
Why Raiders cover: The AFC West is the only division without a team above .500, so 7 points seems like a lot to get for such mediocrity. San Diego has lost straight up and against the spread the last three in a row, falling to 2-6 ATS. Raiders have cashed four straight in this rivalry (all as underdog), four straight on road and five of six as a pup.
Why Chargers cover: If Norv Turner loses this week, he’ll need an ice bath, because his rear will be on fire from hot seat. Helping Turner out: Oakland might again be minus stud RB Darren McFadden. Raiders don’t work well on short rest, losing ATS last four Thursday outings.
Total (47.5): With Bolts a home chalk, final score has gone low seven straight, and under is 7-1 overall in Chargers’ last eight at Qualcomm, with lone over coming last week vs. Packers. Under 12-3-1 last 16 Raiders-Bolts meetings in San Diego.
Arizona at Philadelphia (NA)
Why Cardinals cover: Because Eagles’ so-called Dream Team more like nightmare at 3-5 SU and ATS. Philly on all sorts of pointspread nosedives, including 3-8 overall and 1-6 at home.
Why Eagles cover: Not enough room on Norv Turner’s hot seat for hefty Andy Reid to join. Philly playing far too inconsistent for its talent level, and pressure on to right ship this week against inferior opponent. Redbirds 4-11 ATS last 15 on highway.
Total: Under 5-2 Philly’s last seven at home and Arizona’s last seven on road.
Tennessee at Carolina (-3)
Why Titans cover: They’re getting 3 points against a 2-6 team with rookie QB. Titans also a decent bounceback bet of late, with ATS upticks of 5-1 after SU loss and 5-1 after non-cover.
Why Panthers cover: The rookie QB is Cam Newton, whose talent has exceeded expectations. He threw three TDs and no picks in Week 8 vs. Vikings. Has already thrown for nearly 2,400 yards and 11 TDs, and rushed for 319 yards and another seven scores. Titans on 1-3 SU and ATS skid, and Carolina has covered five of last six at home.
Total (46): Under on runs of 9-1 with Panthers favored and 5-1 with Carolina coming off bye.
Houston (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Why Texans cover: Three straight double-digit wins (2-0-1 ATS), despite absence of star WR Andre Johnson and LB Mario Williams, and Johnson (hamstring) could return this week. Running game on fire – Arian Foster 351 yards, 4 TDs last three games, and Houston second in league at 155.1 ypg. Bucs awful ATS at home, with slides of 7-19 overall and 3-14 catching points.
Why Buccaneers cover: Need win to get back on track in NFC South, after back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks.
Total (45.5): Under has hit in Tampa’s last three games and four of Texans’ last six.
Washington at Miami (-4)
Why Redskins cover: It’s hard to find anyone much worse at betting window than Miami at home – Fish 17-48-1 ATS last 66 overall and have cashed just six of last 35 as home chalk.
Why Dolphins cover: Bolstered by first SU win of season last week, a 31-3 blowout of Chiefs as 4-point road pup. Plus, ‘Skins reeling after four consecutive SU and ATS defeats, all from underdog spot.
Total (37.5): Combine Redskins’ scoring output last three games, and it still falls well short of this total (31 points). And before Dolphins’ Week 9 outburst, they’d gone six games scoring 17 or less. Miami on 7-0 under run, Washington goes low six of last seven.
St. Louis at Cleveland (-3)
Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford, who returned last week after missing two games, should be more comfortable, and RB Steven Jackson looking more like old Steven Jackson – he racked up 130 yards in OT loss at Arizona, one week after going for 159 in upset of Saints. Cleveland just 2-12-2 ATS last 16.
Why Browns cover: Rams worst team in league this season ATS, with 1-7 mark matching SU record. And on road, St. Louis on pointspread purges of 0-6 overall and 0-5 as pup.
Total (37): Under 6-0-1 Rams’ last seven on highway, including last week at Arizona. Plus, St. Louis 31st in league, averaging meager 12.5 ppg; Browns not much better at 14.9 ppg (29th).
New Orleans at Atlanta (-1)
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees & Co. putting up average of 31.9 ppg, second-best in league and more than 8 ppg better than Atlanta (23.6). And good competition aids Saints at betting window, where they are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.
Why Falcons cover: Warming up with three consecutive SU and ATS victories, and Mike Smith’s troops surely eager to face chief NFC South rival. Saints 1-5 ATS last six on highway.
Total (49.5): At first glance, plenty of offensive firepower, with Brees leading New Orleans and Matt Ryan at helm for Atlanta. But under has hit in 12 of Saints’ last 14 division affairs, and Falcons currently on 4-0 under stretch.
Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)
Why Bills cover: Eager to prove 4-1 SU start was no fluke, after dropping two of last three SU (1-1-1 ATS). Dallas needs a Claritin developed for its favorite’s allergy – 2-10-1 ATS last 13 in that spot.
Why Cowboys cover: Need to get back on track in NFC East before Giants run away with division. And for past few years, this is month Dallas gets its act together, going 16-6 ATS last 22 in November.
Total (48): Dallas has posted four straight unders, and total has gone low last two for Bills. But Buffalo opened year with six consecutive overs, and Cowboys at home lately a good over bet at 10-3 last 13.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
Why Steelers cover: Defending AFC champs sit third in AFC North, looking up at previously woeful Cincy, so Steelers can’t overlook this game. And if it’s a good bounceback team you want, Pittsburgh could be that team, with streaks of 6-0 ATS off SU loss and 7-1 ATS off non-cover. Plus, this rivalry belongs to Mike Tomlin’s squad, which is 7-2 ATS last nine overall and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in Cincy.
Why Bengals cover: Why not? Cincy perhaps biggest surprise of season, losing longtime QB Carson Palmer, yet thriving behind rookie QB Andy Dalton and stout defense (17.5 ppg, fourth). Among hottest teams in league against oddsmakers, winning and cashing five straight to go with ATS rolls of 10-1 overall and 6-0 catching points.
Total (41.5): Lots of over trends for both squads, including Steelers stretches of 4-0 in division and 5-1 in roadies, and 4-0 with Cincy a home ‘dog.
Denver at Kansas City (-3.5)
Why Broncos cover: Despite 3-5 SU and ATS record, only one game out of lead in pathetic AFC Worst, er, West. And K.C., after winning and covering four straight to get season back on track, just got hammered at home by previously winless Dolphins.
Why Chiefs cover: At height of embarrassment in loss to Miami, so that alone should motivate K.C. to give its home fans a better effort this year. Denver in ATS ruts of 1-5-1 after SU win and 1-9-1 after spread-cover.
Total (41): This rivalry tends to go over, at 6-2 last eight overall and 8-2 last 10 at Arrowhead.
Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis
Why Jaguars cover: They’re not very good, but they’re playing right team to get well in winless Colts. And it appears it’s the Jags’ turn to cover in this rivalry – squads have alternated ATS wins last six meetings, with Indy winning SU and ATS last December in most recent contest.
Why Colts cover: Well, they carry almost entirely negative ATS streaks, but Jags not much better, with spread-covering slides of 3-7-1 overall and 5-11 against losing teams.
Total (37.5): Over 6-1 last seven Jags-Colts meetings, but keep in mind Jags have rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert and average league-low 12.3 ppg. And Colts still don’t have Peyton Manning.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Seattle
Why Ravens cover: Get to face punching bag from NFC West, league’s worst division. Proof? Seahawks tied for second in division with 2-6 SU mark. John Harbaugh also fields No. 2 defense in points allowed (16.3 ppg) and yards allowed (279.4 ypg). And oh yeah, Seattle still starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB.
Why Seahawks cover: Cashed four of last five at home, and Ravens tend to play down to level of competition lately, getting beat SU and ATS at Jacksonville and losing ATS at home against Arizona.
Total (41): Ravens defense and Seahawks offense (15.3 ppg) aside, both teams have lots of over streaks, including 7-2 overall for Baltimore, 14-5 overall for Seattle and 7-2 for ‘Hawks at home.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)
Why Giants cover: Coming off big road win vs. Patriots, and QB Eli Manning proving he likes spotlight, engineering two fourth-quarter TD drives in Foxborough. New York has won and cashed three straight roadies, and Tom Coughlin’s troops solid on highway and as underdog, with ATS surges of 30-13 on road, 15-7 catching points and 14-6 as road pup.
Why 49ers cover: Haven’t lost decision at betting window all season, going league-best 7-0-1, including current roll of six consecutive SU and ATS wins. RB Frank Gore helping Niners control clock with five straight 100-yard games, and San Fran defense No. 1 in NFL at 14.8 ppg. Niners have cashed seven straight in favorite’s role.
Total (42.5): Over has been play five of last six at San Fran.
Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)
Why Lions cover: Well rested, coming off bye week after pounding Denver 45-10 on road two weeks ago to halt two-game SU and ATS skid. Too many positive ATS runs to mention, but here are a few: 18-7-2 overall, 5-0-1 on highway and 6-0 getting points.
Why Bears cover: Looking much more like team that reached NFC title game last season, winning three in a row SU and ATS, including impressive outright victory Monday night at Philly as whopping 9-point underdog. RB Matt Forte (805 yards rushing, 436 yards receiving) a multithreat who can keep Lions’ aggressive defense honest. And Chicago looking to avenge 24-13 loss at Detroit last month
Total (45.5): Almost all trends for both teams point to over, which is 6-0-1 Lions’ last seven roadies and 6-1 with Bears a chalk. That said, under 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. winning teams.
New England at N.Y. Jets (-1)
Why Patriots cover: Bill Belichick loves nothing more than to shut Rex Ryan’s mouth, something he did last month in 30-21 home win as 7.5-point favorite. And Belichick has surely had enough of losing, with Pats falling SU and ATS to Steelers and Giants last two weeks – first time since 2009 season that New England has lost two in row. Then there’s this: Patriots haven’t lost three in row SU since 2002 season.
Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan loves nothing more than sticking it to coach he pretends to admire above all others – as he did in AFC playoffs last season. Gang Green upended host Buffalo last week to win and cover for third straight game, after 0-3 SU and ATS dive. Home team 5-1 ATS last six in this rivalry.
Total (47.5): Over 4-0-1 last five Pats-Jets contests, and over generally strong for New England, but total has gone low for Pats in three straight and four of last five.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)
Why Vikings cover: That’s a huge number against archrival in prime-time spotlight, especially considering Vikes gave Packers all they could handle just three weeks ago in 33-27 loss as 10-point ‘dog. Minny RB Adrian Peterson was beast in that game, with 175 rushing yards; he could help Vikes control clock and keep lethal Pack offense off field. Green Bay 7-16-2 ATS last 25 laying more than 10 points.
Why Packers cover: Just too damn good, plain and simple. Haven’t lost SU in nearly an entire season, with 14 consecutive victories and 11-3 ATS mark in that span. QB Aaron Rodgers putting up video-game numbers (24 TDs, 3 INTs) for offense that leads league at 34.4 ppg – 13 better than Minnesota (21.5 ppg). Pack 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home; Vikes on ATS dives of 5-11 on road, 1-6-1 in NFC North and 0-4 on Monday night.
Total (51.5): Teams combined for 60 points last month, and total has gone high in six of last seven clashes, including all three at Lambeau Field.
Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 9 Recap
The low-scoring run continued last week with 67% (8-4-1) of the games going ‘under’ the number. Outside of a few West Coast shootouts in the late afternoon, most of Sunday’s action was rather calm. Unfortunately for the sportsbooks, the ‘over’ cashed for the betting public in the two primetime games (see below). It took 10 weeks, but the ‘over’ reign is done. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 64-61-4 (51%).
Divisional Trends
Week 10 has seven divisional battles on tap this week, including three matchups that will feature teams meeting for the second time this season.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (5-4) and Bengals (5-3) have both shaded to the ‘over’ this season. After some early season struggles, Pitt’s offense has put up 32, 25 and 20 points the last three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense (17.6 PPG) has been solid, but it’s safe to say that Big Ben will be the first legitimate quarterback the team will face. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three encounters in Cincinnati between this pair.
Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos and Chiefs have both inconsistent on offense this season, which makes this total even tougher to ‘cap. You don’t know which attack will show up, which would make most lean more toward the ‘under.’ However, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings between Denver and Kansas City. The total opened at 42½ and has been pushed down to 41 at most books. Do yourself a favor and check the wind on this contest come Sunday.
New Orleans at Atlanta: This contest has seen the total drop too, down two points to 49½ at most shops. Games played indoors usually have fireworks but Atlanta has proven to be a decent defensive club lately. The team has given up an average of 16.3 PPG in their last four, and that includes only 25 points to Green Bay, which is considered a very good job these days. New Orleans has the weapons to score but its attack has only put up 20 and 21 its last two on the road. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 over the past two regular seasons.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: (See Rust Affect)
Detroit at Chicago: (See Rust Affect)
New England at N.Y. Jets: (See Under the Lights)
Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)
Rust Affect
Even though the numbers weren’t eye-opening, the ‘under’ still posted a 4-3 record in the seven games with teams coming off the BYE. On the season, the number stands at 18-7 (72%) to the ‘under.’ We have four more teams playing with rest again this week.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The total on this game is hovering between 37 and 38 points and when you look at the attacks, it should be lower. The Jaguars (12.3 PPG) and Colts (14.2 PPG) have both been inconsistent on offense this season. However, Jacksonville could see a surge this weekend against Indy’s defense (31.4 PPG), which is ranked dead last in the league. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight in this series, but the past history must be tossed out here without Peyton Manning playing for the Colts.
Carolina vs. Tennessee: Carolina’s offense (23.4 PPG) has been a surprise behind rookie QB Cam Newton, plus the defense (25.9 PPG) hasn’t been good due to key injuries. When you have that combination, you usually see high-scoring affairs and ‘over’ tickets. Despite some inflated numbers, Carolina has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3. This week’s number (46) could be a little too high against Tennessee, who is only playing its fourth road game of the season. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the first three games outside of Nashville.
Detroit at Chicago: The Lions beat the Bears 24-13 in a MNF battle on Oct. 10. The total (47) was never threatened and the score should’ve been lower if it wasn’t for two big-play touchdowns from Detroit. This week, the number is down to 44 ½ points and it could get lower due to some poor weather conditions. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last six meetings here.
Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)
Under the Lights
Even when you know, you just don’t know! That’s how some bettors probably felt after watching both the SNF and MNF affairs last week. The ‘under’ in the Steelers-Ravens game had a great pace (9-6) at the half and even heading into the fourth quarter (16-6) too. Sure enough, 21 points in the final 15 minutes, seven coming at the end as Baltimore notched a 23-20 win and the game jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Fast forward to MNF and it looked liked the Bears would be leading the Eagles 10-3 but two big turnovers turned into 14 points and Chicago led 17-10 at the break. Philadelphia posted 14 points in the second half but still came up short (30-24) to the Bears, but the ‘over’ cashed. Through nine weeks, the ‘over’ is 12-7-1 in primetime battles.
New England at New York: The last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, including the first meeting this season on Oct. 9, but it was very fortunate. The game closed at 50½ and the Patriots won 30-21, but the score was 10-7 at halftime. Prior to holding Buffalo to 11 points on the road last week, the Jets were giving up
Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings and Packers have watched the ‘over’ cash in seven of the last nine meetings, and that includes the shootout between the pair on Oct. 23. Green Bay captured a 33-27 road victory and the combined 60 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46½. The Packers’ lowest output on offense this season has been 24 points. And most would expect them to get above that number again, since Minnesota hasn’t allowed less than 22 points in any of its four road games. This week’s number is hovering close to 51, which is inflated, but certainly doable.
Fearless Predictions
The Best Bet ‘over’ prediction between Atlanta and Indianapolis had a nice pace (21-7) at the half but only 10 points were scored in the final 30 minutes. The Falcons did their job (31) but the Colts (7) got no points from their offense. While that was tough to stomach, the Bengals-Titans barely slid ‘under’ the closing number. The team total (Denver 17.5) also looked good at half with the Broncos putting up seven points, but not before they posted 31 points in the second-half. The teaser hit again, but the deficit was still $20. On the season, we’re up 90 cents ($90). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Houston-Tampa Bay 46.5
Best Under: Denver-Kansas City 41.5
Best Team Total: Under Carolina 24.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-Tampa Bay 37.5
Over New Orleans-Atlanta 40.5
Over Buffalo-Dallas 39