NFL Betting News and Notes Week 10

Betting Recap - Week 9
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 9 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 6-4-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 6-6
Against the Spread 4-6-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Colts (+7.5, ML +290) at Packers, 31-26
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Vikings, 22-16 (OT)
Ravens (+3, ML +150) vs. Steelers, 21-14

The largest favorite to cover

Cowboys (-7) at Browns, 35-10
Saints (-5.5) at 49ers, 41-23
Falcons (-4.5) at Buccaneers, 43-28

Saints Alive!

The New Orleans Saints posted a 41-23 victory in Sunday's road game against the San Francisco 49ers for their fourth victory in the past five games, and their fifth consecutive cover. In addition, New Orleans improved to 2-2 SU/4-0 ATS in four games away from home, including 3-0 ATS in three games on a grass surface. The Saints are 2-1 SU/ATS in three games against AFC West Divisional foes, and they're welcome their fourth and final AFC West opponent to town in Week 10 when the Denver Broncos visit the Crescent City.

Giant Turnaround

The New York Giants won 28-23 against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, winning their season-high third consecutive game. The G-Men have also covered three in a row after starting 1-3-1 ATS in their first five outings. The Giants play their second of four games against AFC North opponents in Week 10 when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. The Giants have won and covered each of their past two at MetLife Stadium.

Total Recall

The 'over' was in the majority yet again in Week 9, going 7-5 in Thursday/Sunday games with one left to play Monday. In five AFC games the 'over' edged the 'under' 3-2, and the NFC also hit the 'over' in three of five outings. In AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' was 1-1 heading into Monday's game between Buffalo-Seattle. Through the first nine weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 73-58 (55.7%).

Four of the five games with the highest total lines cashed the 'over' including Indianapolis-Green Bay (52) and New Orleans-San Francisco (53), the two highest totals on the board. The highest-scoring game of the week was Tennessee-San Diego (49) with 78 total points, including 21 or more points in each of the final three quarters.

Two of three games on the schedule with lowest lines (42.5) hit the 'under'. Jacksonville-Kansas City and Detroit-Minnesota each hit 'unders' rather easily, and the NFC North battle even went to overtime. The NFC rivalry game between Philadelphia-N.Y. Giants managed an 'over' result.

The 'over' finished 2-0 in two primetime games in Week 9 with the Buffalo-Seattle (44) yet to go. Officially, the 'over' is 13-14 (48.1%) through 27 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) aggravated his groin injury in the first quarter of Sunday's game against the Jaguars and he was unable to return.

Giants WR Victor Cruz (ankle) rolled his ankle in Sunday's victory against Philadelphia and he is expected to undergo and MRI. The severity of his injury is not yet known.

Steelers WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (ankle/foot) suffered a lower leg injury in Sunday's game at Baltimore and he was carted off the field.

Looking Ahead

The Ravens host the Browns on Thursday Night Football, a rematch of Week 2 when Baltimore went to Cleveland and won 25-20 as four-point favorites. Baltimore has dominated this series15-2 SU over the past 17 meetings while managing a 10-6-1 ATS. The Ravens have won seven of the past eight against the Browns at M&T Bank Stadium, but they're just 1-5 ATS in their past six meetings against the Browns. Baltimore opened as a 10-point favorite.

The Jaguars host the Texans in an AFC South rivalry game. Lately this has been a one-sided rivalry, as Jacksonville is just 2-9 SU over the past 11 games while posting a 4-6-1 ATS during the span. In the past five meetings in Jacksonville the Texans are 1-4 SU/ATS.

The Cardinals host the 49ers in a rematch of their Week 5 battle. Arizona won 33-21 in San Francisco, easily covering a 3 1/2-point number with the 'over' cashing. Arizona has turned this series around, winning and covering four of the past five meetings. However, the Cardinals are just 3-4 SU/ATS over the past seven meetings at home.

Opening Line Report - Week 10
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season offers a solid card for your betting pleasure. Among the highlights: Broncos at Saints, Falcons at Eagles, Vikings at Redskins, Cowboys at Steelers, and Seahawks at Patriots.

Here are the opening lines for the full slate, with insight from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons and CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night, and early moves and differences among books are noted, too.

Thursday, Nov. 10

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Another Thursday-night thriller awaits bettors this week, as Baltimore lays double digits at home against the winless Browns. CG Technology originally hung Ravens -9, with a quick move to -10, the number at which multiple other Vegas shops opened.

Sunday, Nov. 13

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick ‘em)

There was an even mix of pick ‘ems and Houston -1s being dealt Sunday for this AFC South matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3/-120)

Carolina, which has won two straight games, maintains respect among the betting market, opening -3 at the Westgate with a slight adjustment in its direction to -3 plus the extra vig.

“Carolina’s on a little bit of a roll now, and it’s a game they need way more than Kansas City,” said Salmons.

Asked if the Panthers defense may have turned a corner, Salmons replied, “As long as they play quarterbacks like Case Keenum every week , yeah. The Chiefs will help them out next week because the Chiefs play that slow methodical style that will help Carolina.”

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-1)

New Orleans has won four of its last five games, and with Denver traveling east for an early kickoff after playing at Oakland in the Week 9 prime time slot, Salmons sees this as a good spot for the Saints. Also, the Raiders game was the third in a row missed by Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib.

“We handicapped all that in there when we made (the Saints) the favorite,” said Salmons. “You build all that into the line.”

Simbal said when his group was making this line, they looked back to the Saints’ Week 1 game against the Raiders.

“The Saints and Raiders looked very similar, they’re pretty close to even,” Simbal said. “You figure if the Raiders are a pick at home against the Broncos, the Saints should be the same if not a little bit higher because they have a better home field (advantage) than the Raiders.”

Indeed, CG, as well as the Westgate, opened Saints -1

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2.5)

This was the most heavily-bet game of the Week 10 card at CG’s books on Sunday night, according to Simbal. Gamblers were laying the 2.5 with the Jets early, but Simbal’s group was reluctant to move the line to -3.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

This key NFC clash was one of the most debated among the bookmaking crew at CG, Simbal said. The conversation included suggestions that the line should be Atlanta -1 to others that the Eagles should be 3-poiint favorites. CG settled on Philly -1.5 and took a small bet on the home favorite.

The Westgate opened Philly -2.5 and moved to -2 less than an hour later.

“This is a game Philly really needs, and you kind of shade it in that direction, you know, which team needs it more?,” Salmons said. “Philly needs it more, and it’s home. So that’s our thinking making Philly the favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

Just a few weeks ago, the Vikes were 5-0; now they’re 5-3 and look inept offensively.

CG took some action on Washington -2 and moved to -2.5

“Based on the numbers, the Vikings are the better team, but that’s if you take the whole season into account,” Simbal said. “If you weight the last three weeks or so, the Vikings look horrible. So we talked that one from a pick all the way to (the Vikings being a small favorite).”

Salmons said of the Vikes, “Their defense is awesome, but that can only get you so far. The offense is destroying that team. … At some point (injuries) just catch up to you, Unless they reinvent themselves and start doing some things different , it looks like it’s going to be a struggle the rest of the way.”

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Tennessee Titans

Last week in this space Salmons said Green Bay “looks like a team that got old really fast.” The Packers did nothing to disprove that in a 31-26 home loss to Indianapolis on Sunday.

“The only time they can score is when the other team literally sits back and allows them 20 yards a play and lets them score,” Salmons said Sunday. “If you have any questions about how bad Green Bay really is, watch them not score against the Colts defense” (the Packers trailed 31-13 until midway through the fourth quarter).

The Westgate took money on Green Bay at its opening line of -1 for next week’s game and moved to -2. The action may have been wiseguys playing with the numbers, since Green Bay opened -3 at some offshore shops. In Vegas, the lined ranged from 1.5 to 2.5.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Bucs (-1.5)

CG opened Tampa -1 and was bet to -1.5, while the Westgate opened -2 and stood pat.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

While both of these teams have improved as the season has progressed, San Diego opened -4 at the Westgate before a half-point downward adjustment. As of this writing, 3.5s and 4s were both available in Las Vegas on this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-13)

The largest spread of the week didn’t open large enough, as CG was bet from 11.5 to 13, and the Westgate and William Hill went from 12.5 to 13.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even)

In Simbal’s opinion, this game features probably the second and third best teams in the NFL.

“The Cowboys look it, and the Steelers have the players for it, they just haven’t played well. I think (Ben) Roethlisberger’s inability to be mobile today really hurt them (in Sunday’s loss at Baltimore).”

The Steelers have lost three games in a row, but Roethlisberger’s injury – he returned Sunday but the team was clearly out of sync – may be a valid excuse. Even though he’s back, Roethlisberger’s knee still could be a factor.

“It’s a game Pittsburgh needs a lot more than Dallas does, but the question is can Roethlisberger move around enough where they can score some points,” Salmons said.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7)

This number could be affected by Seattle’s performance Monday night against the Bills, but as things stand now, bettors are laying a touchdown or less for next week’s Sunday nighter and taking anything over a touchdown.

Salmons said the Westgate took action on Seattle +7.5 on its look-ahead lines, issued 10 days in advance, but when the book posted 7 on Sunday night, bettors laid the number. Simbal said CG moved quickly from New England -6.5 to -7 (-120) on Sunday night.

He added, “If the Seahawks don’t look great (Monday) night, you may be looking at 8.”

Monday, Nov. 14

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-2)

There was a mix of 2s and 2.5s on Sunday night as the Giants look to extend their winning streak to four next Monday.

NFL Opening Lines
By Dave Essler

Houston/Jags: The Texans open slight road favorites which you'd have to expect because they're just not going to make J'ville favorites over anyone. It's tough to think Bortles and Jacksonville are the bet here - but Houston is winless on the road and not blowing out good teams (or bad ones) at home. Houston and under, because J'ville can't score but they've got a decent Red Zone defense.

Chiefs/Panthers: People remember what they saw last and that was the Chiefs NOT blowing out Jacksonville. Before I'd even consider Kansas City I'd need injury updates. Two WR's were/are in concussion protocol and Myles Jack is questionable. I would consider Kansas City because I still don't trust Carolina and they'er in a tough spot, traveling back from LA and they play the Saints, a division game, Thursday.

Denver/New Orleans: See previous write-up. New Orleans plays the Panthers on the road on Thursday, which is a strike-against, IMO. Their defense is getting "better", but suffice it to say not great. They COULD make Denver look better on offense than they really are, but it's also a tough focus spot for Denver, but they do have a bye before they've got to play the Chiefs, otherwise I'd like New Orleans a lot more.

Rams/Jets: Another case of the Jets' being -3 (-2.5 now) because that's just standard operating procedure - the Jets played Miami tougher than many expected them to, and they've got a bye coming up. What I worry about with New York now is that all expectations are just about evaporated, so where is the motivation? It's the "early game for the West Coast team" here, but I give that less weight that I used to. Although they've played better (as the scoreboards indicate) in their last three games - if they're looking at all beyond this game, they traverse the country in the next several week, so I actually think this one comes down to which HC you trust to get them looking at THIS game. Probably Fisher, and there was a time that wasn't even close, but now it is.

Falcons/Eagles: They gave the Eagles some betting respect, opening them as -1/-1.5 point favorites, but that's all but gone. Early Falcon money has it a PK most places. Don't forget that it doesn't take a ton of money to move a line early in the betting cycle. Atlanta does come in on extra rest AND has a bye next week. What does strike me is that I've been higher on Quinn improving that defense week-to-week, but it doesn't look like that's solidifying. The Eagles have lost some games and their stock dropped, but it almost had to, and they're undefeated at home. Like Philly here if they can just CONTAIN Jones.

Minnesota/Washington: This could be one of those games where a teams' stock has regressed beyond the mean and now it's time to buy (Minnesota) or a teams stock has risen too much and it's time to sell (Washington). The 'Skins at 4-3-1 don't impress me a ton by way of their competition, but that changes now as after this they've got Green Bay then a brutal three straight road games. We do know the Vikings' offensive ineptness of late, but perhaps the Redskins rush defense, or lack of, might be what ails the Vikings. Interestingly enough the line hasn't gone to +3 yet - so maybe we're not alone in that thinking.

Packers/Titans: After watching our 3* on Tennessee lose, I'm inclined to like them here, and not because the Packers lost. I wish Green Bay had won so we'd get a better number. Tennessee did everything they could to lose that game. They allowed two defensive touchdowns and had five defensive penalties that gave San Diego first downs. They cannot make more mistakes, yet still came within a TD. On the flip side the Packers allow the fewest rushing yards per game - and when Murray can't get going it's tough for Mariota to carry the team, as we found out in San Diego. This is the first of three straight road games for Green Bay, and they're not winning them all, so which one might they lose? I don't know about this one, but I do think that perhaps this one stays under - and Titans or nothing.

Miami/San Diego: I m reluctant to give the Chargers a lot of credit for beating the Titans, who beat themselves. I did think Miami might have an easier time with the Jets, but as is usually the case division games can be tough, regardless of who, when, and where. The Dolphins have won three straight, so we can't discount them here, and they'll be on the West Coast for two weeks with the Rams the following week. I still question the Chargers' defense - but they HAVE played some fairly potent offenses, which the Dolphins' is not. With that in mind I don't agree with the total going up and think at some point it comes back - Miami can stop anyone, so lean under and to a lesser extent Miami, before +4 is gone.

49ers/Cardinals: +13 is a big number in the NFL. Regardless of who's playing, if you're getting an average of 12 (NFL average) possessions a game, assume you turn it over one in 8 (NFL average) - that means you need to have TD's on two more than your opponent, assuming no defensive or special teams scores. That's not two more SCORES, but two more touchdowns. Let's go back and look at what we said about the Dolphins/Jets game - division games are not easy. In fact, the second closest game San Fran has played this season was against the Cardinals. Tough spot for Arizona backers to be laying the points - at Carolina last week, at Minnesota and at Atlanta the next two weeks. And they (Arizona) have not been putting up the points we know they're capable of - under is perhaps the best bet here.

Dallas/Pittsburgh: One would have to think that Roethlisberger is going to be better in his second game back, clearly, and AGAIN that last game was against a division rival. That would be one thing in the Steelers' favor here. Of course it's hard not to like the Cowboys, even on the road - but it IS a late (4:25 EST) game and now that the suns' going down earlier it could be chilly - and clearly the Steelers' crowd with three more hours to drink will be "up". The Steelers have played a very tough schedule and their only home loss was to the Patriots - without Ben, so I have to think Pittsburgh wins and they start the Romo talk, again.

NFL Week 10

Houston (5-3) @ Jacksonville (2-6) — Texans are 0-3 on road, 5-0 at home, losing on foreign soil by combined score of 84-22, albeit vs Pats-Denver-Vikings, all winning teams; they’ve had only two takeaways in last six games (-8 ). Home side is 7-0-1 vs spread in their games. Jaguars ran ball for 205 yards LW in Arrowhead under their new OC, after averaging 73.9 rushing yards/game under old OC. Jax was -4 in turnovers LW or they might’ve upset Chiefs (outgained KC 449-231)— they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 4-2-17 points. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last four games (-10). Texans are 9-7-1 under O’Brien in games with spread of 3 or less points; Jaguars are 6-12 under Bradley in such games, 2-2 this year. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last four, three by 11+ points- they won four of last five visits here. Texans won four of last five post-bye games.

Kansas City (6-2) @ Carolina (3-5) — Panthers are 2-0 since bye week, allowing only 83 rushing yards on 27 carries; they’re 12-29 on 3rd down last two games, after being 4-19 in two games before that. KC struggled in red zone LW (16 points on 4 drives) wit backup QB Foles playing, but is 4-0 since bye; they’re 4-8 in last 12 games as a home favorite, 1-3 this year, winning home games by 6-21-6-5 points. Chiefs are 3-2 in series; home side won three of last four meetings. Teams split two meetings here, with last visit in ’08. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 vs spread. AFC West road underdogs are 6-3. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; over is 5-3 in Carolina games. Chiefs’ last three games were all decided by 6 or less points; three of last four Carolina games were decided by exactly three points.

Denver (6-3) @ New Orleans (4-4) — Saints rallied to 4-4 after an 0-3 start; they’re 2-2 at home, with dogs covering all four games (average total, 67.5). NO has 15 TDs on 42 drives at home; unless Denver comes up with turnovers and creates short field for their defense, tough to imagine Siemian matching points with Brees here. Broncos are 2-3 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they had only 90 rushing yards in last two games combined. In last three games, Denver is 11-37 on third down (29.7%), after being 29-77 (37.7%) in first six games- they won only previous game on artificial turf, in Week 3 at Cincy. Broncos’ average starting field position LW was their own 19, worst in NFL- they are 8-2 vs New Orleans, winning last four meetings, three by 15+ points. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games.

Rams (3-5) @ Jets (3-6) — Two teams with QB issues. LA lost its last four games, scoring one TD on its last 22 drives; Rams are 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where number was 3 or less points. Not sure if Fitzpatrick (knee) or Petty (would be 1st start) gets nod at QB for Jets, who scored 26 pts/game the last three weeks. New York scored to go ahead LW in Miami with under 6:00 left, looked ready to win 3rd game in row, but Dolphins ran kick back for game-winning TD. Neither team has led at halftime since Week 2. Jets won last two meetings 47-3/27-13; Rams are 4-2 vs Jets in last six visits here, but last visit was 2008. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-2, 3-2 at home. Under is 5-3 in Rams’ games, 4-1 in Jets’ last five.

Falcons (6-3) @ Eagles (4-4) — Atlanta is 4-1 on road, with only road loss 26-24 in Seattle- they scored nine TDs on 17 drives in last two games. Philly lost four of last five games after 3-0 start; Wentz threw picks on first two drives LW, as Giants led 14-0 5:07 into game- their late rally fell just short. Eagles are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-31-11 points; they’ve allowed only two TDs on 31 drives at home this year (under 3-0). Atlanta won last three series games, by 4-13-2 points; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but won last one, in 2012. Over is 7-1 in Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Philly games. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 8-2. Atlanta has 11 TD plays of 20+ plays this season, most in the league.

Vikings (5-3) @ Redskins (4-3-1) — Minnesota is 0-3 since its bye, its OC quit, its starting OT’s are hurt; Vikings scored 4 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games, scoring 26 points on last ten red zone drives- they were outscored 34-9 in first half last three games, with no TDs. Minnesota is +12 in turnovers for season but has only one takeaway in last couple games. Washington is 2-2 at home, with all four games going over total; average total in those games is 50.5. Redskins are 8-8 vs spread under Gruden, in games with spread of 3 or less points; Vikings are 14-6 in such games under Zimmer. NFL teams coming off a bye this year are 9-5-2 vs spread this season, but Washington is 1-7 in last eight post-bye games, losing last three by 15-20-17 points. Zimmer/Gruden spent time together as coordinators in Cincinnati.

Packers (4-4) @ Titans (4-5) — Tennessee has allowed seven TDs on offense/special teams this year, two more than anyone else in NFL (Jets). Titans are 2-3 at home, with last three home games going over; they scored 32.3 pts/game the last three weeks but lost two of three. Green Bay scored 58 points in last two games but lost both of them, getting drilled at home by Colts LW. Packers are 1-2 on road this year, with only win in opener at Jax (27-23, -4.5); Pack is 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8 vs spread, 1-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; Packers are 6-10 in last 16. Last six Tennessee games went over total; over is 2-1 in Green Bay games.

Bears (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5) — Tampa Bay got whacked at home LW, is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games, 0-4 this year. Bucs allowed 34.3 pts/game at home this year, gave up 140 rushing yards/game their last four games. Bears are 0-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16 points. Chicago is 7-3 in last ten post-bye games, but lost last two, by 55-14/23-20 scores. Bears won five of last six series games, winning last three by 6-8-5 points; Bears won three of last four visits here. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-6 vs spread this season; NFC North road teams are 5-6. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under. Bucs were outscored in second half in 6 of last 7 games, 27-14/23-14 in last two.

Dolphins (4-4) @ Chargers (4-5) — Miami won its last three games, running ball for 205 yds/game with no turnovers (+4); Fish were -7 in turnovers their first five games- this is their first road game since Sept 29. Dolphins are 0-3 on road this year, losing by 2-7-15 points; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this year. Chargers won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they converted 21-41 third down plays in last three games. SD is 12-16 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Home side won last six series games; Miami lost last three visits here, by 10-10-16 points. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 3-5. Five of last six San Diego games went over the total.

49ers (1-7) @ Cardinals (3-4-1) — Arizona (-3.5) won first meeting this year 33-21 in Santa Clara, with first two TDs coming on drives of 21-14 yards. Redbirds won four of last five series games, winning 23-14/47-7 in last two played here- they’re 2-2-1 SU at home this year, 2-3 as a home favorite, with only wins 40-7/28-3 over Bucs/Jets. 49ers lost last seven games, allowing 33+ points in six of them; they’re 0-3 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 19-19-29 points. Niners allowed 100+-yard rusher in each of last seven games, good news for Arizona RB Johnson’s fantasy owners. Cardinals are 2-4 in last six post-bye games, but were a dog in five of those six games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-13-1 vs spread. Six of 49ers’ last seven games went over total.

Cowboys (7-1) @ Steelers (4-4) — Dallas won/covered its last seven games, scoring 30.5 pts/game in last four; Cowboys are 4-0 on road, with last three of those games staying under total. Dallas ran ball for 186.5 yards/game in last six games, taking heat off rookie QB Prescott, who averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games. Steelers lost last three games, scoring 15 pts/game; they were outscored 40-18 in first half of those games. Big Ben was rusty in his return in Baltimore LW. Pitt is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Pantriots, when Jones played QB. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-3 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 4-6. Romo is healthy again, but why would you take out a QB who is 7-1? Four of last five Cowboy games, six of last seven Steeler games stayed under total.

Seahawks (5-2-1) @ Patriots (7-1) — New England is 4-0 since Brady came back, with all four wins by 11+ points. Seattle scored total of one offensive TD in its tie/losses- they scored 15 in five wins. First meeting since Super Bowl two years ago, game lost by Seahawks when they threw from 1-yard line in last 1:00 and ball was picked. Consider that Carroll was fired so Patriots could hire Belichick- this game has to have extra meaning for him. New England won 47-20/30-6 in last two post-bye games; long trip east on short week for Seahawks after beating Bills in tough Monday night home game. Seahawks won four of last five visits here, but last visit was 12 years ago- last three series games were decided by 4 or less points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; NFC West underdogs are 2-7.

Bengals (3-4-1) @ Giants (5-3) — Giants won/covered last three games; they’re 3-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-4-5 points, with 29-27 loss to Redskins. Four of NY’s last six TDs came on drives of less than 40 yards or were scored by defense. Bengals lost last three road games, by 8-14-18 points; their only road win was here in Week 1 vs Jets, after they had been 1-12 in Swamp Stadium, 1-3 vs Jets, 0-9 vs Giants. Home side won last nine series games. Cincy is 0-2 as an underdog this year, after being 7-2-1 as road dog last two years- they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-8. Last three Bengal games went over total, as did three of four Giant home games.

Armadillosports.com

Best Bets - Week 10
By Sportsbook.ag

Not only did last week's Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +7.5 cash easily, the Colts won outright in Green Bay as significant underdogs and never trailed in the game.

That win continued a nice little run I've got going with these plays in the NFL and I'm looking to continue it this week.

Best Bet #1: Jacksonville (-2)

We've already seen a significant move on this line this morning as the Jaguars were sitting at a pick'em as NFL fans were waking up and going to work today. But while Jacksonville has seen significant money since then to move this line, the majority of tickets (over 80%) have been written the other way.

To see so many come out and support a Houston team that's been downright awful on the road was very surprising, especially when you consider that the Texans have lost by double digits in each of their three road games.

On the flip side is Jacksonville though and plenty of casual NFL bettors see the same old Jaguars again this year and always have no problem fading them.

Although Jacksonville is winless on their home field this year (0-3 SU), they are long overdue to put a complete game together in this stadium. They've seen all the Texans struggles away from Houston this season and have to be excited about the opportunity to get off this snide and get back into the AFC South race.

Remember, this was a Jags team that so many bettors were so high on coming into the year to take that next step and become a playoff contender and the foundation of that thought process is still there.

QB Blake Bortles has been awful more often than not, but the Jags haven't been a team decimated by injuries or anything and we could see this team finally start to put things together during the second half of the year.

Houston's only scored a total of 22 points in their three road games this season and only one touchdown is included in that number. That TD came during garbage time in their 31-13 loss at Minnesota, as this team has become the embodiment of a true home/road dichotomy squad.

Yes, Jacksonville will be the worst opponent the Texans have faced on the road, but until Brock Osweiler can show that he can hit his receivers and move the chains as a visitor like he does at home, they are not a team that deserves as much betting respect as they are getting in terms of volume this week.

These Texans are trying to do everything they can to hold onto their lead in the AFC South and while we are still a few weeks away from crunch time, that pressure on a young team learning how to cope with that is starting to build.

Seeing the big line move this morning only confirmed my thoughts that the Jags are one of the best plays on the NFL board this week as they'll get their first win over the Texans since they swept Houston in 2013.

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

They were bitter rivals in the 1970s, but these days, the Dallas Cowboys (7-1 SU and ATS) don’t get to play the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4 SU and ATS) very often. They'll meet this Sunday at Heinz Field, kicking off at 4:25 PM ET on FOX. At press time, the Steelers are 2-point favourites with a total of 50, down from –3 at the open.

The Cowboys seem happy to continue with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback. Tony Romo may be activated this week if he makes enough progress in practice, but with Prescott playing at a Pro-Bowl level, there's no rush to put Romo in harm's way. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the league, and their defense has been surprisingly competent after four years of sub-par performances.

The Steelers were much happier to get Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup after he tore a meniscus in Week 6, but they may have pushed him too hard. Roethlisberger was clearly less than 100% in last Sunday's 21-14 loss to the Baltimore Ravens (+3.5 at home). To make matters worse, centre Maurkice Pouncey dislocated his thumb in Baltimore and might not be available against Dallas.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

The biggest, juiciest primetime matchup of the 2016 NFL season has Patriots hosting Seahawks in a rematch of the unforgettable 'Why Didn't You Run It' Super Bowl XLIX. Current odds at Sports Interaction has Patriots -7.5 point home favorite with the total set at 48.0.

Patriots laying -7.5 points does give pause. However, New England fresh off a bye and catching Seahawks' on a short week along with having to fly across the country is a big advantage for the Patriots. Home field is also something NE can tap into. The Patriots have won 31 of the past 36 regular season games in front of the home audience with a 22-12-2 record against the betting line winning by a 10.1 points/game margin.

Seattle brings into the contest an impressive scoring defense (16.8 ) but trying to contain the red-hot hand of Tom Brady tossing 329.7 yards/game with 12 TD's, 0 Int since returning from his suspension is no easy task. Additionally, Seahawks' aren't lighting up the score board on offense (20.2) and do face a Patriot squad with its own stingy 2nd-ranked scoring defense allowing just 16.5 points/game.

Consider laying the points. Patriots are a money-grabbing 16-6-2 ATS in Foxboro in this -3.5 to -7.5 sweet betting spot, 7-2-1 ATS home vs a team with a .666 or better record, 8-2-2 as home chalk vs a team off a win. Finally, this being a Prime Time is yet another nod towards Patriots, since the team has compiled a 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS record recently under bright light' of SNF.

Pick Six - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 24-28-1 ATS

Review: The Cowboys and Giants came through as favorites, while the Colts cashed outright as a road underdog at Green Bay. The Rams pushed in a three-point loss to the Panthers, while the Vikings fell in overtime to the Lions.

Chiefs at Panthers (-3, 44)

Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Chiefs split their first four games of the season, but Kansas City is riding a four-game winning streak, capped off by an ugly home victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Nick Foles started in place of the injured Alex Smith at quarterback, as Foles led the Chiefs to the end zone only once, while Kansas City needed four field goals in a 19-14 win as seven-point favorites. Smith is expected back under center on Sunday as the Chiefs are listed as an underdog for the second time this season, losing to the Steelers in Week 4 in their other opportunity as a ‘dog.

Carolina
Record: 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 45/1

The Panthers lost just once in the 2015 regular season, but won only one game through the first six contests this season. Carolina is looking to make a run by beating Arizona and Los Angeles the last two weeks, as the Panthers are facing their second AFC West opponent this season. The first interconference game didn’t work out for Carolina in a 21-20 opening week loss at Denver, as Carolina has cashed once in its last four chances against AFC opponents at home since 2014.

Best Bet: Kansas City +3

Broncos at Saints (-3, 49)

Denver
Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Broncos remain in the mix for the AFC West title in spite of last Sunday’s loss at Oakland. Denver starts Week 10 one game behind Oakland in the division after a 30-20 defeat at Coliseum as the Broncos were outrushed, 218-33. Denver is making its first trip to the Superdome since 2004 as the Broncos dropped 530 yards on New Orleans in its previous matchup in 2012 in a 34-14 blowout at Sports Authority Field.

New Orleans
Record: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

Following an 0-3 start, the Saints have come back to life by winning four of its past five games. New Orleans dominated San Francisco last Sunday as five-point favorites, 41-23, while racking up 571 yards on the 49ers’ awful defense. The Saints have covered five consecutive games, including the last two in the role of a home underdog. New Orleans has struggled in the home favorite role at 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to Oakland and Atlanta, while losing four of its past six contests against AFC foes.

Best Bet: Denver +3

Falcons (-1½, 50) at Eagles

Atlanta
Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 8-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/1

The Falcons have rebounded from a two-game skid to win each of their last two contests to sit atop of the NFC South at 6-3. Atlanta dominated Tampa Bay in Week 9 as 4½-point favorites, 43-28 to eclipse the 40-point mark for the third time this season. Matt Ryan tossed at least three touchdown passes for the fifth time in 2016, including the third instance on the road against the Bucs. Although Atlanta covered last week, the Falcons own a 2-10 ATS record as a favorite since the start of last season.

Philadelphia
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Eagles should be thrilled to be back at Lincoln Financial Field after losing each of the past two weeks inside the division to the Cowboys and Giants. Philadelphia has lost four of five road games, but has compiled a 3-0 home record, including victories as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Carson Wentz threw for a career-high 364 yards in last Sunday’s 28-23 loss at New York, but was intercepted twice. The rookie of North Dakota State owns a 5/2 touchdown to interception ratio at home, while the Eagles haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a game at home this season.

Best Bet: Philadelphia + 1½

Vikings at Redskins (-2½, 41½)

Minnesota
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Vikings are in the midst of a free-fall following a 5-0 start by losing three straight games. In the three losses (all in the favorite role), Minnesota’s offense mustered a total of 36 points, while falling in overtime to Detroit last Sunday, 22-16. The Vikings’ defense has done its part by allowing four offensive touchdowns in the last three games in regulation, but Minnesota hasn’t rushed more than 93 yards in any of its three defeats. Minnesota is flipped into the underdog role this week, as the Vikings have posted a terrific 14-2 ATS record in its past 16 opportunities when receiving points.

Washington
Record: 4-3-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 90/1

The Redskins are back from the bye week following an unimpressive result in London, a 27-27 tie with the Bengals. Washington has work to do to catch Dallas in the NFC East, but the Redskins are still in the Wild Card mix after winning four of its past six games. The Redskins will be without one of their big offensive threats as wide receiver DeSean Jackson is sidelined with a shoulder injury. Washington has stumbled to a 2-9 ATS record under Jay Gruden in the favorite role, including a home loss to Dallas back in Week 2.

Best Bet: Minnesota +2½

Dolphins at Chargers (-4, 48½)

Miami
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Dolphins embark on a two-game swing to southern California that will keep Miami out west for the next week. Miami heads to Los Angeles in Week 11, but first the Dolphins need to take care of the Chargers and keep their winning streak alive. The Dolphins started 1-4, but have won three consecutive games, including recent home divisional victories over the Bills and Jets. Miami has yet to pick up a road win this season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), while last winning at Qualcomm Stadium in 2005 (0-3 SU/ATS last three visits).

San Diego
Record: 4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Chargers are several plays away from sitting above the .500 mark and really having a legitimate shot at the AFC West title. San Diego needs to go on a run to capture a Wild Card spot, but the Bolts have played better recently by winning three of their past four games. The Chargers pulled away from the Titans last Sunday in a 43-35 triumph as running back Melvin Gordon posted his second straight 100-yard game, while the defense scored a pair of touchdowns. Last season, the Chargers closed the season with four consecutive UNDERS at home, but San Diego has cashed the OVER in three of four games at Qualcomm Stadium in 2016.

Best Bet: San Diego -4

Cowboys at Steelers (-2½, 50)

Dallas
Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Cowboys own the longest winning streak in the NFL at seven games following their opening week one-point defeat to the Giants. Dallas rolled Cleveland last Sunday, 35-10, as the Cowboys have held five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less. Dak Prescott continues to make his case as starting quarterback by throwing three touchdown passes against the Browns, while getting intercepted only twice in eight games. The Cowboys have won four of their past five road games against AFC opponents, as Dallas is making its first trip to Pittsburgh since a 20-13 loss at Heinz Field in 2008.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Steelers jumped out of the gate with a solid 4-1 mark, but have fallen backwards by losing three in a row. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in a loss at Miami and although he returned last week at Baltimore, the Steelers haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of the past three losses. Pittsburgh has won 10 consecutive regular season home games in the favorite role since 2014, including a 3-0 SU/ATS record this season. The Steelers have fared well against NFC foes at Heinz Field since 2011, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark last season.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2½

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 17-9 (65%) over the past two weeks. A lot of team total ‘over’ tickets cashed as well with eight clubs scoring 30 or more points and three of those teams put up 40-plus points. Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 72-60-1 (55%) record.

Divisional Action

There are only two divisional games scheduled in Week 10 and they’re certainly not must-see matchups but we do have some angles to check out.

Houston at Jacksonville: Even though this game has a low number (42), bettors should be aware that the first five AFC South games have went ‘over’ the number this season. Even with that angle, it’s tough to make a case for the high side on this game from what we’ve seen between this pair so far. Houston hasn’t won on the road (0-3) and it’s scored a total of 22 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless at home and their averaging 18.7 points per game. We’ve seen the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

San Francisco at Arizona: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season at home yet the oddsmakers have posted a total of 48 for this week’s matchup versus San Francisco. The Cards beat the 49ers earlier this season, notching a 33-21 road win in a Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (42 ½) connected with a big second-half behind backup QB Drew Stanton. The 49ers defense (32.5 PPG) is the worst in the league and the porous unit has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2 this season.

Coast-to-Coast

This popular total trend is in play again this weekend with not one but two games. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed.

West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) when these situations arise. I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is for these lopsided results but be aware of it and follow or fade at your own discretion.

Los Angeles at N.Y. Jets: Lowest total (40) on the board. The L.A. offense (18.4 PPG) has been better on the road and the Rams scored a season-high 37 at Tampa Bay in Week 3 and also posted 28 at Detroit in Week 6.

Seattle at New England:

I’ve also been charting the East Coast teams playing in the Pacific Time Zone and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those situations. Miami will fall into this situation this weekend at San Diego and then again in Week 11 at Los Angeles.

Fifty Something

We had two totals close in the fifties last week and they both saw the ‘over’ connect. As of Saturday morning, there are four matchups hovering right around 50 and bettors are leaning to the high side according to the latest trends. Here’s my quick handicap on the totals.

Denver at New Orleans (49½): The classic offense vs. defense matchup takes place in the Superdome. The Broncos looked suspect against the Raiders last week and not having defensive back Aqib Talib (doubtful) doesn’t help the cause. The Saints have been installed as home favorites and they’re 0-2 in that role this season, allowing 35 and 45 points. In two trips East this season, Denver scored 29 and 27 respectively at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (50): The Falcons have been the best ‘over’ team (8-1) in the league but I’m not fond of this spot for them on Sunday, especially against a desperate Eagles team that has only allowed 23 total points in three home games this season.

Green Bay at Tennessee (50): Based on the current form for each team, this could be a shootout. Green Bay has allowed 30-plus in three of its last four games and the offense (25 PPG) has kept close to that number during this stretch. Tennessee’s defense started the season on fire but it’s been a mess lately. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 this season and that includes a 4-1 mark in Nashville. Make a note that Tennessee has allowed a league-high seven non-offensive touchdowns this season and as you know, those scores are daggers for ‘under’ wagers.

Dallas at Pittsburgh (49½): A lot of money has come in on Dallas and it’s hard to argue against them on paper when you look at the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been diced up this season (276 YPG) and the pass rush has only 11 sacks, ranked last in the league. The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 on the season with the two ‘over’ winners coming at Heinz Field.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and those results also snapped the impressive ‘under’ run on MNF. Including this past Thursday’s result from the Cleveland-Baltimore matchup, the ‘under’ has gone 15-12-1 (56%) in night games this season.

Seattle at New England: Based on the early betting report, the books need the Seahawks to win this game and they’ll likely need the ‘under’ to cash as well. The Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3 this season, which includes a 2-2 mark with QB Tom Brady. The New England offense (34 PPG) has been sharp since he returned but Seattle’s defense (16.8 PPG) will be the best unit he’s faced. The Patriots scoring defense (16.5 PPG) is better than the ‘Hawks yet we’re looking at total (48½) and that could have you scratching your head. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 on the road in its last eight games versus AFC foes and its defense hasn’t been great, allowing 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, New England has averaged 30.1 PPG in its last eight home games versus NFC foes. Including the outcome in Super Bowl 49, the last four encounters between the pair have gone ‘over.’

Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants: This total (47) seems a tad high considering the Bengals (20.9 PPG) and Giants (20.1) have both regressed offensively this season. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its home games this season and Cincinnati enters this game on a 3-0 run to the high side. Cincinnati is off the bye and has only averaged 16.7 PPG in its last three games with rest. Cincinnati (5-9) hasn’t been great in night games with QB Andy Dalton and this will be their first primetime game of the season.

Fearless Predictions

I almost managed a split last week but Cleveland failed to score in the second-half, which has become a common theme (51 points in 10 games) for Hue Jackson and company this season. The weekly deficit wound up in the red ($220) and so is the overall bankroll ($240). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Francisco-Arizona 48

Best Under: Kansas City-Carolina 44½

Best Team Total: Over Denver 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Atlanta-Philadelphia Under 59
Denver-New Orleans Over 40½
San Francisco-Arizona Over 39

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.

"I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."

The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.

"This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."

The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.

"The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.

"We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.

"Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."

The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.

"The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."

The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.

"They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."

Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.

"A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."

Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.