NFL Week 11
Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4 - Interesting to see how Falcons bounce back after OT loss to rival Saints last week, their first loss in four games. Atlanta is 2-2 as favorite this year, 1-0 at home- they're 2-2 SU at home. Titans are playing first game this year on artificial turf; they're 2-2 on road, 4-1 as underdogs- they are 1-4 when scoring 17 or less points, 4-0 when they score more. Teams are 2-6 week after playing New Orleans. Tennessee won last five series games, with its last loss in 1990, but they lost only Super Bowl appearance on this field dozen years ago. Last five Atlanta games, last three Titan games stayed under total.
Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7) - Buffalo lost last two games 27-11/44-7; they've turned ball over 11 times in losing three of last four games. Miami won last two games after 0-7 start, not allowing a TD on 19 possessions; they had only four takeaways in first eight games, but had two last week. Fish are 4-2 in last six series games, winning two of last three here, by 9-28 points. Last eight Miami games stayed under total; six of nine Buffalo games went over, as have four of five AFC East divisional games. Bills lost their last three road games by 3-3-37 points- they're 3-1-1 as underdog this year. Miami's win last week made them 7-29 vs spread in last 36 games as a home favorite.
Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3) - Baltimore is 4-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 28-17-15-3 points, but in last four games, they've lost to two awful teams, and beat Arizona after trailing 24-6, so they're struggling badly. Bengals won three of last four series games, are 4-3 in last seven visits here, losing by 6-7-6 points- they're 4-1 on road, 5-0 vs spread, with only loss 24-22 at Denver. Cincy is only NFL team to win field position battle in all nine games. Ravens lost field position last four weeks, by 12-8-3-14 yards- as opponents started 10 of 43 drives in Baltimore territory. Six of nine Baltimore games went over the total. Bengals forced 33 3/out on opponents' last 69 drives.
Jaguars (3-6) @ Browns (3-6) - Cleveland would be shooting for .500 here had they not botched center snap on GW FG last week. Browns trail series 9-4 but are 3-2 vs Jaguars since teams haven't been division rivals. Jags allowed 14-7-3 points in their three wins, an average of 23.7 in its losses; Browns scored more than 17 points once this year, and were held to 12 or less points in each of last four (two TDs last 40 drives). Jaguars are 1-4 on road, with only win at winless Colts. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 5-6-1. Last four Jacksonville games, four of last Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7) - Minnesota has short week after Monday night tank job at Lambeau; they're 0-6 when scoring less than 24 points, 1-3 at home, despite outscoring those four opponents 82-15 in first half. Oakland is 9-4 in series, splitting six visits to Twin Cities; they're 3-1 on road, with only loss by 3 at Buffalo, when they led 21-3 at the half. NFC North home teams are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Five of last six Oakland games stayed under the total; three of last four Viking games went over. Raiders had four extra days to prepare for this, having played on Thursday last week. In two games since its bye, Oakland has averaged 8.5/10.5 yards/pass attempt.
Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3) - Detroit lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; QB Stafford broke index finger on his passing hand, why is he playing if he is hurt? Detroit scored 24+ points in its six wins, 19-16-13 losses, and they lost their last two home games (2-2 as home fave). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 5-6, 3-4 on road. Six of nine Detroit games went over the total; three of last four Carolina games stayed under. Panthers lost five of last six games, are 1-2 as underdogs on road, losing all three games by 7-5-14 points- this is their first road game in five weeks. Carolina allowed 140.5 rushing yards/game over last four games.
Buccaneers (4-5) @ Packers (9-0 - Unbeaten Green Bay on serious roll, with six covers in last seven games; Pack is 4-0 as home favorite, winning by 8-26-21-38 points, scoring 19 TDs on 37 home possessions. Pack covered six of last seven games- they scored 45 in both post-bye games. Tampa Bay lost three in row, by 6-11-28 points, with only four TDs on last 36 drives- they've given up an average of 185.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Bucs are 1-3 on the road, losing by 45-6-11 points, with lone win at Metrodome in Week 2. Six of last seven Buc games stayed under the total; last three Packer games went over. Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 1-9-10 points.
Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6) - Wheels have fallen off for Washington club that lost last five games (0-5 vs spread) scoring one offensive TD on their last 32 drives. Neither QB is any good, so teams play nine in box vs runs and have held Skins to average of 54.6 rushing yards during five-game losing skid. Dallas lost three of four on road, with only win in OT at Candlestick in Week 2; they are 2-3-1 as favorites. Cowboys won five of last six games in series, including 18-16 (-4) Monday night win in Week 3, when teams combined for one TD and four FGs on six red zone drives. Five of last six series totals were 34 or less. Under is 7-1 in last eight Washington games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.
Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (8-1) - San Francisco won/covered last seven games, as 49ers continue to take ball away- they've had 2+ takeaways in every game but one, and are +13 in turnovers for season. Niners won last four series games, last three by 15+ points- they held Arizona to 9.5 ppg in the four games. Arizona covered last three games, winning last two and blowing 24-6 lead at Baltimore in game before that; Cardinals are 1-4 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 1-3-24-3 points, with a win at Philly- only two of their six losses are by more than four points. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under total. Underdogs are 0-3-1 vs spread week after playing the Eagles.
Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7) - Seattle won 11 of last 12 series games since '04 playoff loss; last meeting was 16-6 home win that clinched NFC West on final day of 2010. Seahawks are 1-4 on road, getting five takeaways (+2) in only win at Giants. Rams won two of last three games, allowing only one offensive TD on last 21 drives; they're favored for first time this year. Jackson is healthy and Rams have run ball for 154.3 yards/game last three weeks. Seattle's turnover ratio is +6 in its three wins, -8 in losses- they have three TDs on 43 drives in their four road losses. Under is 3-1 in Seattle's last four games, 5-1 in Rams' last six. Average total in last four series games, 29.0.
Chargers (4-5) @ Bears (6-3) - San Diego has fallen apart, going 0-4 since bye, allowing 29.8 ppg (12 TDs/33 drives); they're 1-3 on road, losing by 14-6-3- its only road win was at Denver. Chicago won/covered last four games, scoring an average of 32.5 ppg; they're 3-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite, winning games at home by 18-5-29-24 points. San Diego has turned ball over 2+ times in each of last five games (-4). Teams split 10 series games, with Bolts losing three of four visits here (only win was 20-7 in first meeting 41 years ago). Three of last four Chicago games went over the total. Chicago has nine INTs in its last three games, after picking off only four passes in their first six games.
Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3) - Last 3-6 team to wind up in playoffs were the '96 Jaguars, coached by Tom Coughlin, so Eagles aren't dead, but their season is on life support. Philly (-8) lost 29-16 to Giants in Week 3, ending six-game series win streak- they've won last four visits here, scoring 45-38 in last two. Giants are 3-1 at home, 1-2-1 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 12-3-3 points. Vick has broken ribs; if he can't go, highly suspect Vince Young gets nod. Philly is on road for first time in five weeks; they've split four road games, losing by 4 in Atlanta, 7 in Buffalo. Three of four Eagle road games went over total. Eagles are amazingly 0-6 this season when allowing more than 13 points.
Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3) - Chief QB Cassel (hand) is out for year; former Pitt QB Palko gets first NFL start here, leading team that scored one TD on last 21 drives in losing last two games by 28-7 points. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chiefs lost last four visits here by 30-6-3-7 points, with last win in '90. Patriots lost two of last three games, but are 3-1 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points with a loss to Jets (2-2 as home faves). Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under total, as did three of last four Patriot tilts. Chief personnel head Pioli had same role in Foxboro during Patriots' championship years. Chiefs covered their last three road games, are 5-1 as an underdog this season.
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
We’re at Week 11 of the NFL season, with two burning questions: Can the Packers go undefeated? And if Tim Tebow can lead the Broncos to three wins, shouldn’t the Colts be able to win just once behind Curtis Painter?
At least the Colts can’t lose this week, since they’ve got a bye – though I heard they were still 3-point underdogs.
To the NFL poolies cheat sheet we go:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Why Bengals cover: They’re getting 7 points against team that, over past four games, lost outright to Jacksonville and Seattle, and nearly lost to Arizona, failing to cover against all three lightweights. And Cincy has cashed in all five of its roadies this season, going 4-1 straight up. This rivalry also leans to Bengals lately, who have covered last four, all as pups.
Why Ravens cover: They tend to play up – or down – to the level of their competition, as proven by their big win two weeks ago at Pittsburgh and their inexplicable loss last week at Seattle. So John Harbaugh’s troops, at 5-1 ATS last six vs. winning teams, should be pretty amped to face solid Cincy squad.
Total (40.5): Game features two of league’s top defenses, with Baltimore allowing 16.9 ppg (third) and Cincy 18.2 ppg (fifth). In this AFC North rivalry, total has gone low four straight and six of last seven.
Oakland Raiders (-1) at Minnesota Vikings
Why Raiders cover: Oakland getting little respect as first-place team from AFC Worst, er, West. Lousy division aside, Men in Black have covered all four on road this year (all as ‘dogs), with three SU wins. And they played Thursday game last week, so they’re rested.
Why Vikings cover: 3-0-1 ATS last four following non-cover. And Oakland not exactly comfortable in favorite’s role, at 8-23 ATS last 31.
Total (45): Under has been play in five of Raiders’ last six, but with game at Vikes’ home dome, weather won’t be factor, and Minnesota on 4-1 over stretch at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1)
Why Jaguars cover: Coming off huge win at Indianapolis. Uh, maybe not, since beating Manning-less Indy not so special anymore. Still, they’ve cashed three of four (3-0-1 ATS), and Browns on numerous pointspread freefalls, including 4-15-2 overall and 1-8-2 at Dawg Pound.
Why Browns cover: Get rare opportunity to face more inept offense than their own. Jags, with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, netting a paltry 12.8 ppg (31st). By comparison, Cleveland and second-year QB Colt McCoy an offensive juggernaut at 14.6 ppg (29th).
Total (34.5): That is one low number for a total, but these two teams are awful on offense. Watching paint dry might be more exciting than this game. In fact, watching paint dry, then repainting and watching it dry again might be more exciting. Jags have played to under in four straight overall and five in a row on highway, and under 4-1 in Browns’ last five.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1)
Why Bills cover: After 4-1 SU start, they’re backsliding, and they desperately need a win to stay in AFC playoff picture. Miami has long-standing tradition of non-excellence at home, where they own ATS slides of 18-48-1 overall and 7-29 as a chalk.
Why Dolphins cover: They are scorching hot, or at least their version of scorching hot, winning last two SU and ATS after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS). Buffalo 3-7 ATS last 10 AFC East contests.
Total (43): These division rivals polar opposites on totals, with Bills on boatload of over runs (including 8-2 last 10 overall and 5-0 on road) and Fish on plethora of under hot streaks (8-0 last eight). Under 7-3 last 10 Bills-Dolphins clashes, including 4-1 last five in Miami.
Dallas Cowboys (-9) at Washington Redskins
Why Cowboys cover: Because it’s November, and the Cowboys have beaten the oddsmakers 20 of the last 28 times in the 11th month of the year, including 4-1 ATS last five. Washington can’t figure out who to play at QB and is on 0-5 SU and ATS purge, scoring 13 points or less four times in that span.
Why Redskins cover: Can’t sugarcoat that Washington is weak, but for whatever reason, the ‘Skins have a stronghold on this rivalry at the books, going 8-2 ATS last 10 against Pokes. Dallas 1-6-1 ATS last eight as favorite.
Total (41.5): Under 5-1 last six Cowboys-Redskins affairs, including Dallas’ “thrilling” 18-16 home win in September – and that was the highest scoring of those five unders, with the other four totaling 24 points or less. Washington on under sprees of 13-3 overall and 6-1 at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Why Buccaneers cover: It’s almost impossible to make a case for anybody against Green Bay right now, but Bucs do have one key attribute: road-warrior mentality. Tampa on road ATS upswings of 12-3-1 overall and 10-2 catching points.
Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champions virtually unstoppable, having won 15 consecutive games SU while going a stout 12-3 ATS in that stretch. QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 3 INTs) leading league’s best offense (35.6 ppg).
Total (49): Packers scored 45 points in each of last two games, and in four home games this year, Rodgers & Co. have piled up 42 or more three times. If Green Bay keeps up that pace, it won’t take much from the Bucs to reach the over.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7)
Why Panthers cover: Lions not exactly the same team that started season 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS, and they’re losing their composure a bit, too, as evidenced by Matthew Stafford’s meltdown in blowout loss to Bears last week. Panthers a solid underdog, at 8-2-2 ATS last 12 in that role.
Why Lions cover: Even though they’ve dumped three of last four SU and ATS, they’re still on several positive pointspread streaks, having cashed nine of last 12 at home dome and going 10-3-1 last 14 overall.
Total (47): Mostly over trends for both teams. However, total has gone low five of last six at Ford Field.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Why Cardinals cover: Coming off huge road upset of Philadelphia as a 13.5-point underdog, so they’ve got plenty of confidence against division rival. And forget about injured QB Kevin Kolb; unheralded John Skelton has led Redbirds to back-to-back wins, on the field and at the sportsbook.
Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the league better at beating the bookmakers. Niners haven’t suffered pointspread loss all season (8-0-1) and are on 7-0 SU and ATS firestorm. San Fran has also covered last five vs. Arizona.
Total (40.5): Total has gone low in nine of Cards’ last 11 NFC West tilts. On the flip side, Niners on flurry of over runs, including 6-1 at home.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-1)
Why Seahawks cover: Well, they’re generally lousy, and they start Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but they actually beat Baltimore outright last week, moving to 5-1-1 ATS last seven – and they were underdogs in all seven contests. Seattle has also grabbed cash seven of last eight in this NFC West rivalry.
Why Rams cover: Can control the game behind RB Steven Jackson, who is starting to rumble again. Jackson rushed for 128 yards in win at Cleveland last week, giving him average of 139 ypg over last three outings.
Total (39): Rams average NFL-worst 12.6 ppg, and Seahawks not much better at just 16 ppg (29th). Such patheticness points to the under, which is 5-1 in St. Louis’ last six overall and 12-3-1 in Rams’ last 16 division starts.
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Why Chargers cover: Because they need a win, having dumped four in a row SU and ATS to lose control of awful AFC West. If coach Norv Turner doesn’t right this ship quickly, he’ll need some SPF 50 for his rear end, to avoid scorching burn of hot seat.
Why Bears cover: They’re on a roll right now, even if QB Jay Cutler always looks like he’s got a bad case of bitter beer face. Lovie Smith’s troops have been impressive in reeling off four straight wins, cashing in all four, including beatdown of visiting Detroit last week.
Total (45): With Chargers hitting road and Bears at home, over seems like smart play. Over 6-1-1 San Diego’s last nine roadies and 8-2 Chicago’s last 10 at Soldier Field.
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Why Titans cover: Not a lot of positive ATS trends for this team, so motivation comes from desperation. If this team still harbors any playoff hopes, it’ll have to get some wins outside of AFC South down stretch.
Why Falcons cover: Because coach Mike Smith has to put last week’s stupid fourth-down decision out of everybody’s minds. What better way is there to prove you’re a genius than by just beating the daylights out of an opponent? And Atlanta is a very strong bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 18-5 off a SU loss and 18-7 after a non-cover.
Total (44): Falcons have played to the under five consecutive games, even though last week’s loss to New Orleans went to overtime.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-4.5)
Why Eagles cover: When 3-6 team is only catching 4.5 points on road against 6-3 team, something’s up. Clearly, oddsmakers still believe in Eagles’ overwhelming talent level, even if it hasn’t translated to SU or ATS wins. Also involved in the equation: In this rivalry, ‘dog has gone stout 12-2 ATS last 14, and road team has covered seven of last nine.
Why Giants cover: They are stinging from loss at San Francisco, in game they definitely could have won. And they’ve already proven selves against Eagles this season, going on road to post 29-16 outright win in Week 3 as hefty 9-point underdog, ending Philly’s 6-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry.
Total (47): Over 10-4 in New York’s last 14 at home, and over has been torrid on road for Philly, hitting in nine of last 10.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)
Why Chiefs cover: That’s an awful lot of points. Even in a rout, Kansas City could come up with a cheap late score for a backdoor cover. And they’ve got a couple ATS trends in their favor, having covered five straight from underdog role and 11 of 13 catching more than 10 points. Pats just 3-15 ATS last 18 laying more than 10.
Why Patriots cover: Many started pointing out Pats’ inadequacies after losses to Steelers and Giants. Then they smacked Jets pretty good last week on road. Bill Belichick doesn’t mess around with bad teams, going 5-1 ATS last six against sub-.500 squads. And Chiefs are starting someone named Tyler Palko at QB this week, with Matt Cassel potentially out for season with a throwing hand injury.
Total (46.5): Chiefs averaging just 15.7 ppg (27th), with total going low four straight and six of last seven. But Patriots play to over with regularity, with total going high eight of last 10 at home and 21 of last 28 overall. Plus, in Monday spotlight, New England on 5-1-1 over streak.
Tip Sheet - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The playoff races are wide open in both conferences as we head into Week 11 of the NFL. Seven teams are within two games of the AFC Wild Card while three clubs are within one game of the Wild Card inside the NFC. We'll focus on five games Sunday afternoon as the Raiders look to stay atop the AFC West against struggling Minnesota.
Raiders (-1, 45½) at Vikings
It's not the greatest division race in the world, but the AFC West is going to come down to the end as Oakland (5-4) currently leads the way. The Raiders are coming off extra rest after an impressive road victory at San Diego last Thursday night as seven-point underdogs, 24-17. Meanwhile, the Vikings (2-7) didn't have the same fortune in a road divisional showdown as Minnesota was thumped at unbeaten Green Bay, 45-7 as 13-point 'dogs.
The Vikings are also playing on the short week after playing at Lambeau Field on Monday, as teams coming off Monday night games on the road are just 5-5 SU/ATS this season. The Raiders own a 4-1 ATS record against non-divisional foes this season, including covers at Buffalo and Houston. Minnesota is 3-1 ATS this season at Mall of America Field, with the lone ATS loss coming in Week 2 against Tampa Bay after the Vikes blew a 17-0 lead.
Bengals at Ravens (-7, 40)
Trying to figure out the Ravens is like solving a 1000-piece puzzle. Just when Baltimore looks like a part of the AFC elite, John Harbaugh's club follows up the Pittsburgh last-minute win with a disappointing loss at stumbling Seattle as seven-point favorites. The Ravens (6-3) can climb back into first place of the AFC North alongside the idle Steelers with a win over the surprising Bengals (6-3) on Sunday.
Cincinnati's schedule was kind to them the first half of the season, but the Bengals still had to play the Steelers and Ravens four times in the final two months. Marvin Lewis' squad failed in first opportunity against the best in the AFC North with a 24-17 home loss to Pittsburgh, while dropping only its second game ATS all season. These two teams have seen the 'under' hit in six of the last seven meetings, including each of the previous four. However, each club is 7-2 to the 'over' this season, so one of these trends will go the opposite way after Sunday.
Buccaneers at Packers (-14, 48½)
Green Bay is chugging along as its competition is quickly getting off the train tracks. The Packers (9-0) rolled past the Vikings on Monday for their seventh cover of the season, while scoring 40 or more points for the fourth time. For as well as Green Bay is playing, the Bucs don't look like a team that is a threat to make the playoffs at this point. Tampa Bay has dropped four of five since a 3-1 start, including an ugly 37-9 home defeat to the AFC South-leading Texans.
The Packers are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as double-digit home favorites this season with all three wins decided by 21 points or more. However, Green Bay is 1-2 ATS off a home victory as the Packers failed to cash in victories at Carolina and Minnesota. Tampa Bay dominated as a road underdog last season, but has covered just once in three opportunities this season, including double-digit defeats at San Francisco and New Orleans - both division leaders.
Chargers at Bears (-3½, 45)
Following a 1-2 start, Chicago is rolling along as the third-hottest team in the league behind Green Bay and San Francisco. The Bears (6-3) helped out their Wild Card case with a convincing 37-13 rout of the Lions last Sunday as 2½-point favorites. On the flip side, San Diego (4-5) keeps hurting themselves in a winnable division after losing its fourth consecutive game in a Week 10 home defeat to Oakland.
The Chargers had won seven of eight November games from 2009-2010, but the late-season surge will have to start immediately following home losses to the Packers and Raiders. However, the Bolts own a 5-1 ATS mark the last six games off a home loss since 2009. The Bears have fared well against AFC opponents at home the previous 4½ years with a 7-4 ATS mark, while splitting games against the Jets and Patriots last season.
Titans at Falcons (-6, 44)
An intriguing interconference matchup at the Georgia Dome takes place between a pair of second-place clubs. Tennessee and Atlanta each enter this contest at 5-4, but both squads have taken different routes to get to this point. The Titans started the season at 3-1, while winning just two of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Falcons began 2-3, but managed victories in three of their previous four contests.
Tennessee blew out Carolina, 30-3 to even its road mark at 2-2, while staying two games behind Houston in the AFC South. Atlanta's three-game winning streak was halted in an overtime setback to New Orleans, but the Falcons have owned the AFC at home with an 8-2 ATS record the last 10 interconference games at the Georgia Dome. The Titans have also seen success against NFC foes by compiling an 8-2-1 ATS ledger the previous 11 contests.
Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Recap
Some close calls last week but the ‘under’ prevailed again with an 8-7-1 mark. Once again, the two primetime games went ‘over’ the number, which definitely hurt the sportsbooks. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 72-68-5 (51%).
Short Stacks
The Raiders stopped the Chargers 24-17 on Nov. 10 and the Broncos surprised the Jets 17-13 this past Thursday. Not only did Oakland (+280) and Denver (+260) win outright as live ‘dogs, both games went ‘under’ their totals too. With not as much time to prepare, it’s well known that teams focus more on defense than offense and that’s been the case with the first two games played in the Thursday Night games on the NFL Network. On paper, next week’s matchup between San Francisco and Baltimore looks like it could be another slugfest under the lights. Be sure to check back for our entire Thanksgiving Total Talk.
Divisional Angles
Buffalo at Miami: (See Something has to give!)
Cincinnati at Baltimore: The ‘under’ has cashed in the last four meetings and six of the last seven.
Dallas at Washington: The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six, including Dallas’ win (18-16) over Washington in the first meeting this season on Monday Night Football (Sept. 26)
Arizona at San Francisco: (See Something has to give!)
Seattle at St. Louis: Both meetings went ‘under’ last season, with combined outcomes of 23 and 22 points.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: (See Under the Lights)
Something has to give!
Buffalo at Miami: The Bills have watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 this season, including a 3-0-1 mark on the road, while the Dolphins have been a clear-cut ‘under’ team (8-1). And all eight of the ‘under’ tickets have come after Miami lost a 38-24 shootout at home to New England in Week 1. If you look at the current form of both teams, the ‘under’ seems like the play. Especially when you look at Buffalo’s offense (41 points) and Miami’s defense (32 points) the past three weeks. As you all know, games aren’t played on paper and sometimes the line tells you everything. The opener came out at 43 and has held all week, which seems a little strange, especially when you look at the past history. The Bills and Dolphins watched both of their regular season affairs go ‘under’ last year, with combined point totals of 25 and 31 points. In the last eight meetings, none of the totals closed above 42½ points.
Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals have played five games outside of the desert, including three on the East Coast, and four of them have gone ‘under’ the total. Meanwhile, San Francisco has seen four of its five battles in the Bay Area go ‘over.’ The total results for the 49ers are very surprising when you delve into their numbers. The offense is averaging 25.9 PPG, which is very solid, but the unit is only putting up 310 YPG. The attack has the same amount of touchdowns as field goals (23) which tells you that they’re executing but not clicking on all cylinders. Defensively, the 49ers are ranked first in points allowed per game (15.3). Fast forward to the total this week against Arizona, and the opener has dropped from 42 to 40½ points at most outfits. Kevin Kolb won’t be starting at QB for the Cardinals again, which makes you rely on John Skelton. Last year, San Francisco beat Arizona 27-6 and 38-7. Don’t be surprised to see Skelton and company held close to those results again. The question is how many points will San Francisco put up?
Under the Lights
Now we know why you play 60 minutes. For the second straight weekend, total players pressing or chasing the ‘over’ received some late-night power surges to cash tickets. The Patriots and Jets put up 31 points in the second-half, while the Packers and Vikings combined for 35 in the final 30 minutes of their game. With those results, the ‘over’ stands at 14-7-1 (67%) in primetime battles.
Philadelphia at New York Giants: A few major offshore outfits opened this total at 48½ points and it’s down to 45 ½. The status of QB Michael Vick (ribs) is ‘out’ which makes Vince Young the starter. Vick certainly hasn’t been good the past two weeks, but expecting Young to do better is asking a lot. New York has put up 20-plus points in its last eight games, yet the offense looks lost without running back Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), who is ‘out’ again this Sunday. New York beat Philadelphia 29-16 on Sept. 25 and the combined 45 points barely went ‘under’ the closing number of 46½. The last two encounters between the pair from New York have witnessed 83 and 69 points.
Kansas City at New England: This total has dropped a tad too (48-46) and it also has an injury situation at the quarterback position. Tyler Palko will get the start for Kansas City since Matt Cassel (hand) was injured last week. Even with Cassel, the Chiefs were near the bottom of the league in both points (15.7 PPG) and yards per game (306.7 YPG). While Kansas City is stagnant on offense, New England is ranked second in total yards (431.9) and third in points (28.8). Prior to last week’s outburst against the Jets, the Patriots only posted 20, 17 and 20 points in their three previous games. So is the offense back or was last week a bit of a second-half fluke? The Pats have played two other AFC West teams this season in the Chargers and Raiders, and they posted 35 and 31 respectively.
Fearless Predictions
The winning streak continued last week and if we went by closing lines, we would’ve had a 4-0 sweep with our wagers. But at the time of publishing last week’s TT, the Houston-Tampa Bay line was 46½ points and the final score was 37-9. If you bet it on Sunday, you would’ve won with a closing number of 45½ points. I’m not going to pat myself on the back, but remember “Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered!” With the profits, we’re up $280 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Carolina-Detroit 47.5
Best Under: Arizona-San Francisco 40.5
Best Team Total: Under Jaguars 16.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Carolina-Detroit 38.5
Over Tennessee-Atlanta 35
Over Miami-Buffalo 34