NFL Betting News and Notes Week 11

Betting Recap - Week 10
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 10 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 5-8
Against the Spread 4-9
Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-8
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Seahawks (+7.5, ML +290) at Patriots, 31-24
Dolphins (+4.5, ML +170) at Chargers, 31-24

The largest favorite to cover

Ravens (-7.5) vs. Browns, 28-7

Cowboy Up

The Dallas Cowboys picked up an entertaining 35-30 win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers, staying hot against the number. Dallas has covered eight straight games, improving to 8-0-1 ATS on the season. That includes a 5-0 SU/ATS mark away from Jerry World. They're also 3-0 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division, and they'll play their fourth and final game against that division when the Cincinnati Bengals come to town.

Not Feeling Minnesota

The Minnesota Vikings opened the season 5-0 SU/ATS, but after a 26-20 setback on the road against the Washington Redskins the Vikings slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four outings. The Vikings will look to slap the brakes on their losing streak when the Arizona Cardinals visit Minnesota's palacial new stadium in the Twin Cities in Week 11.

Total Recall

The 'over' was in the majority again in Week 10, edging out the 'under' 7-6 with one left to play Monday. In three AFC battles the 'over' edged the 'under' 2-1. In four NFC clashes the 'over/under' split 2-2. In six AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' managed a 3-3 mark heading into Monday's clash between Cincinnati-N.Y. Giants. Through the first nine weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 80-64 (55.6%).

Four of the six games with a total of 48.5 or more hit the 'over', including Dallas-Pittsburgh (50.5) and Seattle-New England (49.5), the two highest totals on the board. For the second consecutive weekend the highest-scoring game of the week featured the Tennessee Titans, who picked up a 47-25 win over the visiting Green Bay Packers. There have been a total of 150 points in the past two games the Titans have been involved.

The game with the lowest total of the weekend, the game between Los Angeles-N.Y. Jets (39) easily hit with just 15 total points.If you're been following Chris David's Total Talk, you'll know games featuring Pacific Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone entered the week with a 10-0 'over' mark. The Rams and Jets ended up as the first 'under' in 11 games, but the Seahawks-Patriots game was an 'over' to push that trend to 11-1 on the season.

The 'over/under' is 1-1 through two primetime games with the Cincinnati-N.Y. Giants (47.5) yet to go. Officially, the 'over' is 15-15 (50.0%) through 30 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Bears RB Jordan Howard (ankle/Achilles') said after the game that he was fine, but head coach John Fox said Howard suffered an ankle or Achilles' injury in Sunday's loss at Tampa Bay.

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) checked out of the win against San Francisco briefly, but was able to finish up. However, after the game it was reported he will need an MRI Monday for a sore knee.

Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (head) was forced out for a handful of plays after a hard, but clean, hit in the Sunday night game against the Seahawks.

Looking Ahead

The Saints and Panthers meet for the second time this season, this time on Thursday Night Football. The Week 6 battle in New Orleans resulted in a 41-38 Saints victory, the fourth straight 'over' in the past four meetings in the series. Carolina has won three of the past five meetings, but the Panthers are 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'over' is 8-3 in the past 11 in the series.

The winless Browns host the Steelers in Week 11, and they haven't had a lot of success against their rivals from western Pennsylvania in recent seasons. Cleveland has won just three of the past 25 meetings in this series, and they're 9-15-1 ATS during the span. The Browns are 5-3 ATS in their past eight at home against the Steelers while the 'under' has cashed in six of those outings. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall.

The Colts and Titans will do battle for the second time this season. Indianapolis went down to Nashville and won 34-26 in Week 7, covering with an 'over' result. The Colts have won 10 straight meetings dating back to Oct. 30, 2011, going 9-1 ATS during the span. Indianapolis has really dominated at home, winning eight straight meetings dating back to Dec. 30, 2007. The Colts have covered five in a row at home, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in Indy. The 'over' has hit in three straight meetings, and four of the past five. The 'over' is also 3-1 in the past four battles at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy.

Opening Line Report - Week 11
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here are the opening betting lines for Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at about 11 p.m. ET, and early moves and differences among sports books are also noted.

Thursday, Nov. 17

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-4)

The Westgate bookmakers opened Carolina -4.5 with a quick move to -4, and that’s where the rest of Vegas joined them. The number suggests the struggling Panthers are still better than the Saints.

“It’s hard to argue anymore for Carolina, the way they keep blowing games,” said Salmons. “But they’re better (that New Orleans) – they just don’t win.”

Sunday, Nov. 20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, -120)

Tennessee has won four of its last six games, while Indy has alternated wins and losses over its last seven. Still, it’ll take some guts to back the Titans here, as they have lost 10 straight meetings against the Colts and 15 of the last 16. The Colts won in Tennessee in Week 7, 34-26 as 4-point dogs.

Meanwhile, these are two of the best ‘over’ teams in the league, Tennessee sporting an 8-2 O/U record and Indy going 7-2 to the ‘over’ so far.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

The Lions are on a quiet run, winning four of their last five games. They’re also coming off a bye to face a woeful Jaguars team that has lost four in a row. But this game has a similar feel to Detroit’s Week 2 contest against Tennessee, when the Lions were beaten 16-15 as 6-point favorites.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs opened as high as -9, at CG Technology, but the line was adjusted to -8 about 20 minutes later. Most Vegas bet shops, though, opened Kansas City -7.5.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-6)

It was strange seeing the two-win Bears as field-goal road favorites Sunday, and sure enough, they were beaten in Tampa Bay, 36-10. Chicago is now 0-5 on the road this season, both SU and ATS.

Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Minnesota Vikings

This NFC clash opened pick ‘em on some betting boards in Vegas.

Looking like one of the better teams in the league after a 5-0 start, Minnesota’s loss at Washington on Sunday was its fourth straight defeat.

Arizona isn’t lighting it up, either. The Cardinals’ last three games: a dreary 6-6 tie at Seattle, a 30-20 loss in Carolina, a game they were never really in; and a too-close-for-comfort 23-20 win as 13.5-point home favorites against San Francisco on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Westgate opened Cincy -4, while CG Technology went -4.5. Even though the Bengals are home, this is a tough spot for them, as they have a short week after Monday’s game at the Giants and the Bills are coming off a bye.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The streaky Ravens take a major step up in class with a visit to 8-1 Dallas, but this is a sandwich game for the Cowboys, in between Sunday’s whacky win in Pittsburgh and a Thanksgiving Day meeting with the Redskins.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Cleveland Browns

At the Westgate on Sunday night, Pittsburgh bounced between -8.5 and -9.5, big numbers to lay on the road for a team that has lost four in a row outright and whose defense is having trouble getting stops. Then again, the Steelers are playing the winless Browns, who have covered just two spreads all season.

Miami Dolphins (-1) at Los Angeles Rams

This game opened pick ‘em at the Westgate before a move in Miami’s direction. The Dolphins, whose 31-24 win at San Diego was their fourth straight overall, are staying on the West Coast this week as they prepare for the Rams.

Salmons likes what coach Adam Gase is doing in Miami. “They (traditionally have done) so many stupid things out there, and it’s hard to get them out of that,” Salmons said of the Dolphins. “But he’s slowly but surely doing it. He’s done a really nice job there.”

ESPN’s Adam Schefter report Sunday morning that the Rams may start Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, vs. Miami for the first time. That’s a move Salmons believes should have been made a long time ago.

“The Rams offense is atomically bad,” Salmons said. “It’s amazing they refuse to switch quarterbacks”

New England Patriots (-14) at San Francisco 49ers

The league’s highest-rated team visiting one of the lowest results in a two-touchdown road favorite, an NFL rarity.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-5)

The Seahawks opened -4.5 and were pushed to -5 at the Westgate. Winning at Seattle is a tall order for the Eagles, whose only win on the road this season came in Week 2 at Chicago. Other than that game, they are 0-4 SU and ATS away from Philly.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

Washington opened -3 at the Westgate before a move off the key number to -2.5. Before you lay the short number, remember that the Redskins were 2-point favorites over the Packers in the playoff last season and got waxed, 35-18.

Monday, Nov. 21

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5)

The Westgate opened Oakland -3.5 but went to -5, a move based more on the market price than on action, Salmons said. Some shops, in fact, were dealing 5.5 as their opening number.

“We’re more anti-Houston than pro-Oakland,” Salmons said. “….There’s not a lot to like about Houston, even though they won (Sunday). That says more about Jacksonville.”

Despite their 7-2 record, Salmons isn’t too high on the Raiders. He rates Denver, Kansas City and Pittsburgh all a notch higher in the AFC, in addition to the Patriots, obviously.

“I’ve got a bunch of teams I like better than them,” Salmons said.

NFL Week 11

Titans (5-5) @ Colts (4-5) — Indy (+2.5) won first meeting 34-26 in Music City, scoring two TDs in 0:08 span after 2:00 warning- it was their 10th win in row over Titans (23-4 in last 27). Tennessee lost its last eight visits here. Titans are 2-2 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Houston, 8 in San Diego, with wins at Detroit/Miami. In last three games, Tennessee averaged 12.2/7.3/9.8 yards/pass attempt- they’ve averaged 32 pts/game in their last six games. Colts are 2-2 at home, beating Bears by 6, Chargers by 4; they’re 0-3 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Last seven Tennessee games went over total; average total in their last five games is 53.7- over is 7-2 in Indy games. Colts covered nine of their last 11 post-bye games, seven in row when favored.

Jaguars (2-7) @ Lions (5-4) — Hard to lay 7 points with Detroit when they’ve trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all nine of their games were decided by 7 or less points. Detroit is 3-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 1-3-3 points and loss to Tennessee. Jax lost its last four games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3 points, scoring 17.5 pts/game while turning ball over six times on 21 possessions. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 3-6 at home. AFC South road dogs are 4-5 vs spread. Jags won three of five series games, only one of which was decided by less than 5 points- teams split two meetings here. Detroit won its last four post-bye games, covered nine of last 12. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; Detroit’s last three games stayed under.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Chiefs (7-2) — KC is 7-2 this year, 18-3 in its last 21 games but in their last two games, both wins, Chiefs scored one offensive TD on 22 drives, with eight FGAs. Chiefs have two wins this year when they trailed by 14+ in 4th quarter, only two games like that in NFL this year. KC is 4-0 at home this year but 1-3 as home favorite, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points- three of their last four wins are by 6 or less points. Tampa Bay scored 30.5 pts/game in splitting its last four games; Bucs are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road dog, with only loss 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2- they won at Atlanta/Carolina. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 5-6. Bucs’ last four games went over total; Chiefs’ last five games stayed under.

Bears (2-7) @ Giants (6-3) — Big Blue’s six wins are by total of 21 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of nine giant games was decided by more than 7 points. New York is 4-1 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-4-1-5 points, with loss to Washington. Bears ran 12 plays for minus-13 yards in second half at Tampa LW; Chicago lost four of last five games, is 0-5 on road, 0-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26 points. There was lot of talk Monday that Cutler could on way out of Chicago soon. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ’13. Bears won three of last four visits here, but last one was six years ago. Under is 6-3 in Giant games, 3-1 in last four Chicago games.

Cardinals (4-4-1) @ Vikings (5-4) — Minnesota is in freefall, losing last four games after a 5-0 start. Vikings are 3-1 in their new stadium, with only loss in OT to Lions. Arizona allowed 28 pts/game in losing two of first three road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over six times in last two games, is 0-1-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games of a series where home team won last five meetings; Arizona beat them 23-20 LY in desert, thanks to +3 TO ratio. Cardinals lost last eight visits to Twin Cities, with last win here in ’77. NFC North teams are 9-15 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 7-13. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Viking games. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for the Cardinals (lost 33-18 in Buffalo).

Bills (4-5) @ Bengals (3-5-1) — Short week for Cincy after tough 21-20 loss to Giants Monday; Bengals are 1-3-1 in last five games, 2-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 15-14 points after a loss to Denver. Buffalo lost five of last seven post-bye games; they were favored in four of them. Bills allowed 100 points in losing last three games- they’re 2-3 on road, with wins vs QB’s Keenum/Brissett- their last three road games went over. Buffalo is 1-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points; Bengals are 1-3-1 in such games. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Bills won four of last five visits here, but Cincy won last three meetings overall, by 3-3-13 points. Over is 7-1 in last eight Buffalo, 3-1 in last four Bengal games. Buffalo is 0-4 this season in games decided by six or less points.

Ravens (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1) — Dallas won/covered eight games in row; Romo may dress as a backup here, but QB Prescott is the man for Cowboys now. Pokes are 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6 points, with loss to Giants in Week 1. Ravens are 2-2 on road, beating Jax/Browns; both their road losses were in Swamp Stadium (0-2 as a road underdog this year). None of Baltimore’s eight losses are by more than 8 points. Baltimore won last five series games; last time Dallas beat them was in ’91, when Ravens were the Cleveland Browns. AFC North teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC East teams are 15-5 vs spread outside the division, 9-2 at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games, 1-3 in Cowboys’ last four.

Steelers (4-5) @ Browns (0-10) — Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 60-8 in second half of last three games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, losing 30-9/28-12 LY; Steelers won five of last six visits here, with three of five wins by 16+ points. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven games; 1-2-1 as home underdogs, losing home tilts by 5-20-3-25 points. Pitt lost its last four games, allowing 28 pts/game; Steelers lost last three road games, scoring four TD’s on 35 drives while scoring 10.7 pts/game. One thing though; all four Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18 points); they’re 0-3 in games decided by less than eight points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread this season.

Dolphins (5-4) @ Rams (4-5) — Rookie QB Goff gets his first NFL start here, vs Dolphin defense that picked Rivers off four times in 4th quarter alone LW in San Diego. Miami won/covered its last four games, scoring 29 pts/game; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win in San Diego- they scored TD on defense/special teams in three of last five games. Bar has been set low for Goff; on their last 32 drives, LA scored one TD- they didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins this year. Rams are 1-2 in Coliseum, scoring 12.7 pts/game (two TDs on 31 drives). Miami is 10-2 in last 12 games against the Rams, winning last three; last series win for Rams was in 2001. Fish are 5-1 vs Rams in LA/St Louis. Major question in this game is if Goff’s presence will take a defender out of box, open up more running lanes for Gurley.

Patriots (7-2) @ 49ers (1-8 ) — Over last nine years, NE is 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss as a favorite. Brady comes home to play here, but Gronkowski may not play after lung was injured in Seattle game. New England is 4-0 on road this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 2-20-11-16 points. 49ers lost last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 as a home underdog this year, losing last four home tilts by 7-12-17-18 points. Patriots won last visit to SF 30-21 in 2008, their only win in five road games vs 49ers; they won three of last four games with Niners, after losing seven of first eight. AFC East teams are 6-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West teams are 3-7 as an underdog, 0-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Niners’ last eight games, 3-1 in Patriots’ last four.

Eagles (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-2-1) — Seattle got big win in Foxboro last week, could have letdown here. Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6 points. Eagles lost four of last six games after a 3-0 start; they lost last four road games, allowing 28 pts/game but had strong defensive effort in 24-15 home win over Falcons LW. Philly is 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Home side lost seven of last eight series games; Seattle won four of last five meetings. Philly is 5-3 in Seattle, but hasn’t been here since 2011. NFC West teams are 7-13 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 15-5. Over is 4-2 in Eagles’ last six games, 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven. Seahawk opponents converted 27 of last 42 on third down, not good.

Packers (4-5) @ Redskins (5-3-1) — Green Bay is in free fall, losing last three games while allowing 111 points- they were down 35-10 in 2nd quarter in Nashville LW. Pack lost last three road games, by 3-1-22 points; their only road win was in opener at Jackaonville. Green Bay is 1-0 as an underdog this year. Redskins are 5-1-1 in last seven games after an 0-2 start (two home losses); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-6 points. Washington is 30-57 on 3rd down in its last four games, helping improve field position. Packers won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, including a 35-18 win in a playoff game LY. Over is 7-2 in Washington games, 3-0 in Packers’ last three. NFC North teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) — Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys (8-1 SU/ATS) off one of the most exciting games of the season defeating Steelers 35-30 as a 3-point road underdog are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS since dropping their season opener. Baltimore spanking league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter has posted back-to-back division wins to lead the muddled AFC North with a 5-4 (4-5 ATS) record.

Cowboys will be tested against Baltimore's top-ranked run defense (71.3 RYG), 5th-ranked pass 'D' (210.2 PYG). But, with Ezekiel Elliott seemingly unstoppable, Prescott playing mistake-free football edge remains with the home town 'Boys'

Consider Dallas who has been good bets in this situation. The Cowboys have cashed four straight off an upset win as Dogs, have a sparkling 11-3 record ATS following a win the previous effort, 5-0 ATS streak vs an AFC North opponent. A final few betting nuggets favoring Cowboys. NFC East has dominated at the betting window this season facing the AFC North posting a money-making 10-1 record against the betting line. Baltimore is not in a situation you can hang your hopes on. Ravens enter a money-burning 0-6-1 ATS off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, a cash-draining 0-9-1 ATS facing a squad off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, 1-4-1 ATS vs non-conference foes.

Cuuently, Sports Interaction is offering Cowboys at -7.0 (-$1.10) with the total set at 45.0.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

The last time the Philadelphia Eagles visited the Seattle Seahawks, the quarterbacks were Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson. That was five years ago; this Sunday's rematch (4:25 PM ET, CBS) in Seattle will look remarkably different, with rookie Carson Wentz piloting the Eagles and three-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson leading the Seahawks.

Here's another big difference: Seattle (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) was a 3-point home dog in that 2011 contest. At press time, the 'Hawks are 6.5-point favorites for Sunday's tilt with a total of 44.5. Although these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, the OVER is 5-4 for each team in 2016; the Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) have padded their stats with two kick returns for touchdowns, plus a pick-six and a safety. Seattle has just the lone fumble return thus far.

It speaks to the quality of the two quarterbacks in question. Wilson hasn't done much scrambling this year, but his passing game is still Top 10 in the league according to efficiency. Wentz is holding his own for a rookie; however, his numbers for the year are those of a replacement-level quarterback. Philly's defense and special teams are the ones driving the bus.

Pick Six - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 27-31-1 ATS

Review: The early games turned out well with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Broncos all winning as underdogs. The late games not so much with San Diego and Pittsburgh falling short as home favorites.

Titans at Colts (-3, 53½)

Tennessee
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The AFC South race is still wide-open at the halfway point as Tennessee has played its way back into the pack. The Titans eclipsed the 35-point mark for the third straight week in last Sunday’s 47-25 home rout of the Packers as three-point underdogs. Tennessee keeps cashing OVER tickets on a consistent basis by hitting the OVER in seven consecutive games, including three in a row away from Nissan Stadium. The Titans have struggled against the Colts over the years by losing 10 straight meetings, including a 34-26 home defeat last month.

Indianapolis
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Colts are fresh off the bye week as Indianapolis held off Green Bay in its last contest, 31-26 as 7½-point underdogs. Indianapolis has yet to win back-to-back games this season, as two of its losses off a victory are by three points apiece to division foes Jacksonville and Houston. The Colts own a 2-1 SU/ATS record as a home favorite, one season after going 2-4 ATS when laying points at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the fourth home total of 50 or higher this season for the Colts, as the UNDER is 2-1 in those contests.

Best Bet: Indianapolis -3

Cardinals at Vikings (-2½, 40)

Arizona
Record: 4-4-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Cardinals are one season removed from an NFC championship appearance as Arizona sits at .500 after nine games. Arizona edged San Francisco last week with a last-second field goal but failed to cover as 13½-point home favorites in a 23-20 victory. The Cardinals play five of their final seven games away from University of Phoenix Stadium as Arizona owns a 1-2 SU/ATS road mark with that lone win over the woeful 49ers. Arizona has dropped eight straight road matchups with Minnesota, while making its first trip to the Twin Cities since a 21-14 loss back in 2012.

Minnesota
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Vikings were in the discussion of receiving home-field advantage after a 5-0 start. However, Minnesota may be left out of the playoffs if it doesn’t get on track and snap its current four-game losing streak. The latest tumble by Minnesota happened in Washington last Sunday as the Vikings fell short in a 26-20 defeat to the Vikings. During this four-game skid, Minnesota has averaged 14 points per game, while losing three times in the favorite role. The Vikings are laying points this week as Minnesota has compiled an 8-2 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2015 season.

Best Bet: Minnesota -2½

Bills at Bengals (-2½, 47½)

Buffalo
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Which Bills team will show up this week in Cincinnati? The one that won four straight games, including a shutout of the Patriots or the one that has lost three in a row? Buffalo has scored exactly 25 points in three consecutive contests (which is nearly impossible to do), but has allowed at least four touchdowns in each of those losses to Miami, New England, and Seattle. The Bills are in the midst of a five-game OVER streak, including three straight OVERS away from Buffalo.

Cincinnati
Record: 3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Amazingly, the Bengals still have a shot at winning the AFC North title in spite of going 1-3-1 in the last five games. Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh and Baltimore in December, while traveling to Cleveland in three weeks. The Bengals were tripped up on Monday night by the Giants, 21-20 as Cincinnati has been held to fewer than 20 points in all five losses this season. Cincinnati owns a 2-1 SU/ATS mark at Paul Brown Stadium, while winning eight of its past 11 times in the role of a home favorite since 2015.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -2½

Ravens at Cowboys (-7½, 45)

Baltimore
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Ravens have rebounded from a four-game skid to win back-to-back home divisional games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Baltimore has allowed 20 points or less in all five wins this season, while looking to go above .500 on the highway after losing its past two road contests to the Giants and Jets. The Ravens have lost five of their past six games against NFC foes, including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark this season in interconference action. Baltimore has never lost to Dallas in four lifetime matchups, including a 33-24 triumph to close out Cowboys Stadium in 2008.

Dallas
Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Cowboys will continue to keep rolling with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback after Dallas edged Pittsburgh, 35-30 to win and cover its eighth consecutive game. Fellow rookie star Ezekiel Elliott busted the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in the last seven games with 114 yards, including the game-winning 32-yard touchdown scamper in the final seconds. Dallas has not been favored by more than 6 ½ points at home this season, but the Cowboys have cashed in three straight home games since losing the opener to the Giants. There has not been a look-ahead factor for Dallas prior to its annual Thanksgiving matchup, as the Cowboys have won 11 consecutive years in the final game before Turkey Day (6-5 ATS).

Best Bet: Baltimore +7½

Dolphins (-1½, 39½) at Rams

Miami
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Dolphins remained out west following its 31-24 comeback victory over the Chargers last Sunday to win their fourth straight game. Miami topped the 27-point mark for the fourth consecutive week as the Dolphins haven’t won a game this season when scoring 24 points or less. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, even though he hasn’t eclipsed the 260-yard mark passing. The Dolphins are listed as a road favorite for the first time since Week 2 of last season in a 23-20 defeat at Jacksonville as six-point chalk.

Los Angeles
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Rams finally pulled the plug on quarterback Case Keenum and are turning to top pick Jared Goff to revive an offense that ranks last in the league in points per game at 15.4. Los Angeles is coming off its second win this season in which they didn’t reach the end zone, knocking off the Jets, 9-6 as one-point favorites. The Rams are looking for their first home victory since Week 2 against Seattle, as Los Angeles has scored 10 points or less in five games this season.

Best Bet: Los Angeles +1½

Eagles at Seahawks (-6½, 50)

Philadelphia
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

The Eagles have had their share of problems on the road this season by losing four of five games away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia climbed above the .500 mark in last Sunday’s 24-15 home victory over Atlanta, but remains three games behind Dallas in the NFC East. In their past two road losses, the Eagles have lost by six points to the Cowboys and five points to the Giants, while not dropping a game by more than a touchdown this season.

Seattle
Record: 6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Seahawks’ offense is kicking into high gear by scoring 31 points in each of their last two victories against the Bills and Patriots. Seattle picked up a morsel of revenge for its Super Bowl loss two years ago against New England by holding off the Patriots, 31-24 as 7½-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put together his best game of the season by throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while picking up its second cover as an underdog this season. Seattle has won all four games at CenturyLink Field, but the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS at home.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +6½

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 10 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate in last week’s 14-game slate (7-7) and a couple of contests had some fortunate or unfortunate endings. The Chargers led the Dolphins 10-7 at halftime and ‘under’ bettors (49) were confident with that score but turnovers and big plays contributed to 38 points in the final 30 minutes.

Another game that turned at halftime was the Arizona-San Francisco matchup. The Cardinals led 20-10 at the break and the ‘over’ (47) was on a great pace. Sure enough, the worst defense in the league stifled the Cardinals to three points in the second half and the game stayed ‘under’ the number as the pair combined for six field goals. Through 10 weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 79-67-1 (54%) record.

Keep an Eye On!

The Bears have scored 20 or more points once this season but the Giants have allowed 21.6 points per game at home this season.

Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season but all three ‘over’ winners took place on the road.

Including last week’s ‘over’ result versus Pittsburgh, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.

Something has to give on the total between Kansas City (Under 7-2) and Tampa Bay (Over 6-3) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 the last four years in the previous game before their annual Thanksgiving Day battle. The offense averaged 17 PPG during this span, which has resulted in a 1-3 SU record.

Divisional Action

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts outlasted the Titans 34-26 on the road in Week 7 and the ’over’ (48½) connected with a big fourth quarter surge (27 points). Bettors are starting at a total of 53 for the rematch and while that number seems inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on recent form. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and it’s averaging 31.7 PPG during this span. Indianapolis has allowed 28.4 PPG this season, which is ranked 29th in the league. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the season and they’ve also leaned heavily to high side in their last 10 games off the bye (7-3). Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five between the pair. Lastly, every AFC South divisional matchup (6-0) has gone ‘over’ this season.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings. Despite being for offensive fireworks, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Cleveland has watched the ‘under’ cash the last two weeks, largely due to its offensive struggles. The Browns weak defense (419 YPG) makes you believe Pittsburgh can put up a crooked number and you can certainly argue that the Cleveland offense can overachieve against a weak Steelers defense (380 YPG). However, some bettors have already bet into the ‘under’ and knocked the total from 49½ down to 45 as of Friday evening. Why? The latest weather reports are predicting a 40% chance of snow showers and wind gusts up 30 MPH, the latter being the bigger factor.

Headed West

Week 11 will featured three East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone on Sunday. Including last week’s outcome between the Dolphins and Chargers, the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in these matchups. Three of the ‘under’ winners came from Arizona, who is a perfect 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home this season.

Coincidentally, all three of these totals have been knocked down and two of them due to possible poor weather, which was talked about in-depth in the weekly Vegas Money Moves piece.

Miami at Los Angeles: The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast this week as they look to pull off the California sweep after defeating San Diego last Sunday. The Rams defense (327 YPG) is a big step up in class for Miami, who could have two starters out on the offensive line. Los Angeles has the worst scoring offense (15.4 PPG) in the league and it would be surprising if rookie QB Jared Goff can improve on that number in his first NFL start.

New England at San Francisco: Even though rain is expected in the forecast for this matchup, can San Francisco really slow down New England? The Patriots were held to 24 last week but they’re still averaging 32 PPG since QB Tom Brady returned. San Francisco’s defense had it second-best performance of the season last week and still allowed 23 in a loss at Arizona. Knowing the Patriots visit the Jets next week and they’re coming off a tough loss to Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get in and get out of this game healthy. Also, New England won’t have offensive weapons TE Rob Gronkowski or WR Chris Hogan available for Sunday.

Philadelphia at Seattle: This total has dropped from 46 to 43 due to the aforementioned weather reports. The ‘Hawks have put up 31 points in each of their last two games and the offense has played better at home. Philadelphia’s defense has been great at home (9.5 PPG) but very shaky on the road (24.4 PPG). Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at CenturyLink Field and the Eagles have gone 4-0-1 to the ‘over’ as visitors.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and of the three nights, Monday continues to be the best lean for the low side with a 7-3-1 record. Including this past Thursday’s result between Carolina and New Orleans, the ‘under’ as gone 17-14-1 this season.

Green Bay at Washington: This total is hovering between 49 and 50 points at most books and all signs on paper point to the high side. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and that includes a 5-0 mark at FedEx Field. Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and its surrendered 33, 31 and 47 points during this span. The Packers beat the Redskins 35-18 in the first round of the playoffs last year at D.C. and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle, the Green Bay defense is expected to be healthier this week and the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their first two games versus NFC East foes this season.

Houston vs. Oakland: Based on the total (46) and the tendencies we’ve seen from Houston, the number tells me that this game will play to the tempo of the Texans. Houston scored a season-high on the road last week when it beat Jacksonville 24-21 but seven of those points came from the defense. So with that effort, the offense has only scored 39 points in four games outside of Houston this season. We can’t dismiss the fact that Oakland has been a great ‘over’ team (7-2) based on a solid offense and weak defense. However, I believe the venue will play a factor and the high altitude (7,350 ft) could have both teams gassed in the second-half. For what it’s worth, Houston scored nine points at Mile High (Denver - 5,280 ft) in Week 7 and Oakland put up 15 and 14 in its last two trips to Colorado.

Fearless Predictions

I caught some luck last week as the Denver team total slid ‘over’ with a two-point conversion from its defense. That win made up for the dismal performance by Arizona in the second-half. After the dust settled, we turned a small profit ($190) and cut into the overall bankroll ($50). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 52½

Best Under: Baltimore-Dallas 45

Best Team Total: Under Detroit 26½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Baltimore-Dallas Under 53½
Houston-Oakland Under 55
Philadelphia-Seattle Over 33½

SNF - Packers at Redskins
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Green Bay (4-5 straight up, 4-4-1 against the spread) has lost three straight and four of its last five and will have the tall task of getting back on track at FedEx Field Sunday night against Washington (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS), who have lost only once (5-1-1) in its last seven games.

As each teams power rating go in different directions, the Packers find themselves as underdogs for just the second time this season as Washington is -3 (EV) with a total set at 50.

There was some comfort with Packers nation that when wide receiver Jordy Nelson returned this season that the offense would get back to dominating, but Nelson still doesn't appear to be fully recovered as far as speed goes. He's not blowing by defenders as we've all been accustomed to despite leading the team with 50 recptions, 635 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The real problem has been the running game, or lack of it. Coverage has been easier for teams facing Green Bay because they don't have to respect the run. Running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) hasn't played since Week 6 and he's still the teams leading rusher (360 yards). The active leading rusher is quarterback Aaron Rodgers (226 yards) and his three rushing TDs are the only Packers TDs on the ground all season. This is Week 11, that is horrendous, and a huge part of their demise.

Green Bay claimed RB Christine Michael off waivers earlier in the week after he was cut in Seattle, which could help down the road. But a player that has been dumped three separate times between two teams shouldn't be considered the savior. Still, he should be better than the alternative of Ty Montgomery and and James Starks.

The biggest boost this week will be the return of LB Clay Matthews who has missed the Packers 1-4 run the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. Statistically, the Packers defense hasn't been that bad. They allow only 84.4 yards per game on the ground (No. 4) and 339 YPG overall (No. 10). They have a respectable 23 sacks, but have created only 10 turnovers. Matthews should add a little extra spice of intensity for the defense.

The most encouraging note for the Packers (4-5) is that no one is running away with the NFC North as the Lions and Vikings each sit at 5-4. They can regroup, make a run, and still win the division. But they better start their move fast.

As for the Redskins (5-3-1), they sit third in the NFC East behind Dallas (8-1) and the Giants (6-3), but they've got something special going on with an offense that averages 407 YPG (No. 4), which is the highest average in team history. They've had only nine 3-and-out offensive series this season, the least in the league, as is their 25 total punts.

After missing last week, WR DeSean Jackson (head contusion) has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is great news for the offense. The injury to watch is with long snapper Nick Sundberg (back) who is still 'questionable' for Sunday. If he is unable to play, QB Colt McCoy would take over the duties which should be interesting to watch on special teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point in Las Vegas opened Washington -2.5 and it was quickly bet up to -3 on Monday until +3-flat was attractive and bet on Thursday. The only book in town that uses flat numbers is still sitting at -2.5, which is kind of telling. No respected money is laying -2.5 enough to force them back to -3, the most key number in the NFL.

OVER THE WORD IN D.C.

All five of the Redskins home games have gone 'over' the total with an average score of 24.6 to 25. Overall, they've gone 'over' in seven of nine games this season and 16-5 to the 'over' in their last 21.

RECENT MEETINGS

These two teams met in last year's Wild Card playoff game last season at Landover with Washington (-2) jumping out to an 11-0 lead early in the second quarter, but then Green Bay would go to to outscore them 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 win, which went 'over' the total of 47.

The previous meetings was in 2013 with Green Bay (-9) winning 38-20 at Lambeau Field and going 'over' the total of 48.5 points.

SNF PROPS

Total completions by Aaron Rodgers: 26.5
Total TD passes by Aaron Rodgers: 2
otal receiving yards by Jordan Nelson: 80.5

Gross passing yards by Kirk Cousins: 292.5
Total TD passes by Kirk Cousins: 1.5 OV -175
Total receiving yards by Jordan Reed 65.5
Total sacks by both teams: 4.5 UN -120

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate posted Week 12 early lines with the Redskins getting +6.5 at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Packers catching three points at Philadelphia for the Monday night matchup.

Week 11 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)

* A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.

* For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)

* Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.

* Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)

* T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.

* Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)

* The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.

* Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)

* Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.

* Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

* Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.

* The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)

* David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.

* Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)

* Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.

* The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)

* Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.

* One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)

* Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.

* San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)

* The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.

* With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.