NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 12
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Why Colts cover: Boy, you know you’ve hit rock bottom when you’re catching 3.5 points at home against a 2-8 team. But this might be the breakthrough week for Indianapolis (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS). Carolina on three-game SU and ATS slide and in 1-6 ATS rut on road. Indy 4-0 ATS last four off bye week.
Why Panthers cover: There’s a reason Cam Newton & Co. are laying 3.5 points – Indy is awful. Carolina has cashed six straight as road favorite (a role they haven’t been in since October 2009), and Colts on slew of pointspread purges, including 0-6 overall and 1-6 at home dome.
Total (45.5): Total has gone high six of last seven with Panthers a road favorite, and over 8-3-1 Colts’ last dozen off a SU loss.
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-9)
Why Bills cover: This is it for them. After starting out 4-1 SU, they’ve lost four of last five. If they harbor any playoff hopes, they need to not only cash, but win outright. And they’ve got further motivation, having been whipped at home by Jets 27-11 three weeks ago. Additionally, in this AFC East rivalry, the road team is on 7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has beaten the number in nine of last 12.
Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s squad is in a similar spot to Buffalo, desperately needing strong performance to reassert itself as playoff contender after back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Jets have beaten Bills SU and ATS in each of the last four meetings.
Total (41.5): Buffalo has the over on an 8-2-1 run overall, 6-0-1 getting points and 5-0-1 on road. New York has the over on a 20-8 string overall, 8-3 off SU loss and 8-3 inside division.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-9)
Why Browns cover: Not much to say in favor of Cleveland, but road teams in this rivalry have covered in eight of the last nine. Cincy's in 3-13 ATS rut laying points at home.
Why Bengals cover: Cleveland can’t score. The Browns have put up 17 or fewer points in eight straight games, including 14 or fewer in last five outings. Conversely, Cincy has scored 23 or more in six of its last seven starts. The Bengals are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 while the Browns are 0-7 ATS as underdogs.
Total (37.5): Cleveland’s lackluster offense certainly points to the under, which is 5-1 in Browns’ last six. The under has also cashed in the last four Browns-Bengals affairs in Cincy. On flip side, Cincinnati is on 6-1 over surge.
Arizona at St. Louis (N/A)
Why Cardinals cover: Boy, this is one of those games where you want to take your parents’ advice – if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all. That said, in a meeting of lousy teams, Cards (3-1 ATS last four) are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Rams, who are on 2-9 ATS nosedive.
Why Rams cover: Despite the record, they’ve been better lately behind resurgent RB Steven Jackson, who had three straight games of 128 or more yards before last week’s letdown against Seattle. The Cards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NFC West outings.
Total: St. Louis is averaging a league-worst 12 ppg, so looking low appears smart. The Cardinals have played under in six of seven and the last seven between the two clubs have ducked under the total.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3.5)
Why Buccaneers cover: They're heartened by good showing at Green Bay last week, cashing as 14-point pup in 35-26 loss. This won't seem like as tough of a test. The Bucs are among best in league ATS on the road at 15-5-1 in their last 21 overall and 13-3 when catching points.
Why Titans cover: They’ve cashed in three of four, including last week at Atlanta and Mike Munchak’s unit is on a 6-1 ATS stretch when coming off a SU loss.
Total (43): The under has been the play in Tennessee’s last four games.
Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville
Why Texans cover: Sure, they lost QB Matt Schaub, but they’ve got stud RB Arian Foster, who leads league’s second-best running attack (158.1 ypg). They should still be able to control the clock and sit fifth in the NFL at 27.3 ppg. Jacksonville's 31st at 12.5 ppg.
Why Jaguars cover: The home team is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of this AFC South rivalry.
Total (37.5): Jacksonville’s inability to score points, coupled with Houston’s desire to run ball makes under look good. The Jags sport under streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 when getting points.
Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)
Why Vikings cover: Not much to say in Minnesota’s defense – or about Minnesota’s defense (27.1 ppg, 30th). What Vikes do have going for them is Atlanta's on pair of 2-5 ATS skids, as a favorite and coming off SU win.
Why Falcons cover: Minnesota's defense has allowed 27 points or more in four of last five weeks, including 39 at Chicago and 33 and 45 in home and road losses to Green Bay. Minny may not have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle), which will allow Atlanta to put heat on Vikes rookie QB Christian Ponder. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against losing teams.
Total (44): The Falcons have the under on a 6-0 run overall, 5-0 off SU wins and 5-1-1 as home favorites.
Chicago at Oakland (-4.5)
Why Bears cover: They are among hottest teams in league at moment, beating opponents and pointspreads in five straight. In four of those games, they’ve piled up 30 or more points - thanks in large part to RB Matt Forte (926 rushing yards, 465 receiving yards).
Why Raiders cover: Chicago won’t have QB Jay Cutler (thumb) for several weeks, meaning the inexperienced Caleb Hanie will start for the Bears. And despite Oakland likely missing RB Darren McFadden again, Michael Bush (115 ypg last four) is more than serviceable. The Raiders own the third best rushing attack in the league 156.8 ypg and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11.
Total (41.5): Oakland has scored 24 or more points in seven of its last nine and Chicago has topped 24 in six of seven, including five games of 30 or more.
Washington at Seattle (-3.5)
Why Redskins cover: Well, they haven’t won a game since Week 4, so not much to say here. About all they can hope for is that Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson plays poorly, which is surely within Jackson’s capabilities.
Why Seahawks cover: As much as we rag on Jackson in this space, there's no denying Seattle is actually 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 12-4 in its last 16 when laying points at home.
Total (37.5): A fairly low number here, but perhaps merited by fact that ‘Skins average just 16.0 ppg (27th) with the Seahawks only a tick better at 16.8 ppg (26th). Washington has played under in seven of its last nine and five of six on the road. However, the over is 8-2 in Seattle's last 10 at home and 15-6 in its last 21 overall.
Denver at San Diego (-6.5)
Why Broncos cover: Haven’t you heard? The miraculous Tim Tebow is the comeback king, helping Denver to a 4-1 SU and ATS mark since he's been under center. San Diego's in absolute tailspin, losing last five in a row SU and ATS.
Why Chargers cover: If Norv Turner wants to stay employed, the Bolts must win not only this week, but pretty much every game for the rest of season. Denver may be just the cure for Chargers, who have won eight of last 10 in this rivalry (7-1-2 ATS). The Broncos are 10-22-2 ATS in the last 34 matchups.
Total (43.5): Broncos have played over at a 22-9 clip in the last 31 overall, 21-8 last 29 against the AFC West), while Chargers play under at a 8-1 record in the last nine at home, 8-0 with Bolts as home favorites.
New England (-3) at Philadelphia:
Why Patriots cover: After a midseason stumble of two consecutive SU and ATS losses, the Pats posted SU and ATS routs of the Jets and Chiefs and now have legitimate shot at No. 1 seed in AFC. Bill Belichick’s troops have provided long-term ATS stability on road, going 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73. Philly is 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home.
Why Eagles cover: Desperation can be great motivator, as Eagles proved last week against the Giants behind backup QB Vince Young. Philly can’t afford to lose any more games. Quarterback Michael Vick (ribs) is not certain to play, but Young got the job done last week.
Total: The under has hit in four of five at home and six of eight overall for Philly. On the flip side, New England is on over runs of 21-8 overall and 10-4 on the highway.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City
Why Steelers cover: That’s a big number for a road team at Arrowhead, but K.C. has been awful lately, totaling just 16 points over three consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defending AFC champs, meanwhile, have won five of six (4-2 ATS) and own pair of 8-3 ATS streaks, as a favorite and against losing teams.
Why Chiefs cover: QB Tyler Palko can’t be much worse than last week (three INTs), as he replaces the injured Matt Cassel for rest of season. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the last six as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in the last five as a home pup. Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in the last 21 when laying more than 10, while the Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 when catching more than 10.
Total (39.5): Almost all trends point to the over for Pittsburgh and to the under for the Chiefs. But in this occasional rivalry, the total has gone over in five straight overall and four in a row at Arrowhead.
N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-7)
Why Giants cover: They’ve dumped two in a row SU and ATS and need to get the ship righted to keep NFC East hopes on track. Tom Coughlin’s squad likes the Monday night spotlight (4-0 ATS) and is a solid road bet (30-14 ATS in the last 44).
Why Saints cover: They’ve got home-dome advantage. New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four at the Superdome and coming off the bye week, the Saints have had extra week to rest up for Giants. Home team favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Giants-Saints affairs.
Total (50.5): Big number, but with Saints averaging 31.3 ppg (second), the over is always in play. The over has cashed in New Orleans’ last four off its bye week.
NFL Week 12
Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8) - Hard to believe St Louis is favored; way their offense is playing, they shouldn’t be favored over a CFL team. In last three games, St Louis has two TD’s on 39 drives, converting 12 of 41 on 3rd down. Arizona won first meeting 19-13 in OT on Peterson’s 95-yard punt return TD in OT; Cardinals won via special teams, blocking 42-yard FG on last play of regulation that would’ve won game. Rams outgained Arizona 383-262 that day, but still lost for ninth time in last ten series meetings. Redbirds won their last six visits here, but are 1-5 on road this year, 3-2 as road dog. Last three Arizona games, six of last seven St Louis tilts stayed under total. Remember, bad teams don’t have nearly as much home field advantage.
Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5) - Two teams desperate for win; mouthy Jets lost to Patriots/Broncos last two weeks, scoring three TD’s on 24 drives. Home fans will turn on them here if they start slowly. Buffalo is on road third week in row, losing 44-7/35-8 last two weeks; Bills turned ball over 13 times (-9) in last five games- they have no takeaways in last two games. Last four Buffalo TD drives were all 80 yards long; defense/special teams not setting up short field. Hard to drive 80 yards on Jets. Jets won four in row, six of last seven series games, taking last three by combined score of 102-32; they won first meeting this year 27-11 (+2) three weeks ago (was 3-0 at half). Jets had three extra days to prep for this after loss in Denver.
Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4) - Cincinnati won 11 of last 14 series games, including 27-17 (+6.5) upset in season opener, but teams split season series in three of last four years; Browns lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 10-3-17-5-9-2 points. Cleveland is only team not to score point on opening drive of game this year; they’ve gained only 86 yards on 38 plays, an average of 8.6 yards/drive, not good game-planning; overall, they’ve been outscored 36-6 on first drive of a half, while Bengals have 40-34 edge in their games. Cincy is 2-1 as a favorite this season; Browns are 0-3 as road dog, losing by 7-10-18 points. Five of last six Cleveland games, three of last four Bengal home games stayed under total.
Texans (7-3) @ Jaguars (3-7) - Backup QB Leinart steps in spotlight as new starter with Schaub out (foot); before Schaub’s in jury, Texans were on serious roll, winning/covering four games in row- they scored TD on opening drive in six of last eight games. Home team won eight of last nine series games- Texans lost last four visits here, by 20-3-5-7 points. Houston also lost five of last six post-bye games. Jaguars allowed 14 or less points in their three wins; they’re 0-6 allowing more than 14, 2-2 SU at home. Jags scored only six TD’s on last 52 drives, and scored more than 27 points in only one game; they’re 2-4 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. Under is 7-3 in Houston games this season, 9-1 in Jaguar games.
Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10) - Indy’s best remaining chance to win a game, and it wouldn’t even cost them #1 pick in draft, since everyone else has 2+ wins. Colts are 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing last four by combined score of 137-27, outscored 59-10 in second half. Only two of ten Indy losses are by less than seven points. Carolina lost three in row, six of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, allowing average of 35.5 ppg, hardly a rock-solid favorite. Home team lost three of four series games, with Panthers winning previous two visits here, in ‘98/’03. AFC South underdogs are 6-12-1 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Three of four Carolina road games went over total; Colts’ last three games stayed under.
Buccaneers (4-6) @ Titans (5-5) - Slumping Tampa Bay lost last four games, allowing 30.8 ppg; they’ve given up 13 TD’s on just 31 drives in last three games. Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in Titan games this year; Tennessee is 1-3 as home favorite, 3-2 SU at home, with wins by 13-3-17 points. Home side won eight of nine series games; Bucs are 0-6 at Oilers/Titans, losing 31-28/33-13 in two visits here, last of which was in 2003. Bucs have been outscored 55-22 on first drives of a half this year, 27-3 on opening drive of game, so they’re getting out game-planned by opponents. AFC South home favorites are 2-5 in non-divisional home games; NFC south road teams are 6-8 vs spread on road, 4-5 as road dogs.
Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4) - Peterson’s injury puts onus on Minnesota passing game, bad thing for rookie QB on foreign soil. Over last three games, Minnesota has been outgained 225-31 on first drive of a half; Atlanta has four TD’s/FG on first drive of its last six halves, so one coaching staff is preparing better, making better halftime adjustments. Vikings are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-29-38 points. Falcons won four of last five games, but they’re just 1-3-1 as favorite this year, with home wins by 4-14-6, and losses to Packers/Saints. Vikings won four of last five visits here, but haven’t been here since ’05. Last six Atlanta games stayed under total; four of last five Viking games went over.
Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4) - Caleb Hanie steps into spotlight as Chicago starter, replacing injured Cutler (thumb), but he will play well; no one coaches up backup QB’s better than Mike Martz, maybe because it makes him simplify things. Chicago won/covered last five games, scoring 32.2 ppg (14 TD’s/57 drives)- they’re 6-1 outdoors this year, with losses coming at Saints/Lions. Oakland scored 24-24-27 points in three games since its bye, which gave Palmer time to get game-ready; Raiders also have 11 sacks, seven takeaways in last two games. Only Sunday matchup this week between teams with winning records. Four of last five Chicago games went over; five of last seven Oakland games stayed under.
Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6) - Odd series where Redskins won last five regular season meetings, but lost to Seattle twice in playoffs during that span. Skidding Skins are 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since their bye, not scoring a TD in last two road games (20 drives); they’re 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-13-23-11 points, and only win at woeful Rams. Seattle won its last two games, allowing two TD’s on 24 drives, with six takeaways; Seahawks are favored for first time this year- they’re 2-2 at home, with three of four games decided by five or less points. NFC East underdogs are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of last nine Washington games, four of last five Seattle games stayed under the total.
Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6) - Think about how banged up Patriot secondary is, and think about if Jackson/Maclin both play here; how will Patriots stop them? They had a freakin’ QB-turned-WR (Edelman) playing DB last two games, but they continue to win, scoring 37-34 points in last two games (outscored last two foes 48-7 in second half). Patriots allowed 34-25-24 points in their three losses; they’re 6-0 (5-1 vs spread) allowing less than 24. New England won last three series games by 21-3-3 points, one of which was a Super Bowl; they’re 1-5 in six visits here, winning 31-10 in last visit eight years ago. Both teams have gone under total in four of last five games. Eagles were dog for first time last week.
Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6) - Denver is 4-1 with Tebow as starting QB, winning three road games; Broncos have run ball for 209 ypg in those five games, which eats clock and takes pressure off their defense, which allowed 418 yards in 29-24 Week 5 home loss to Chargers, San Diego’s ninth win in last 11 series games, but also last game Orton started. San Diego lost last five games overall, turning ball over 14 times (-5); they’re 3-0 when allowing 17 or less points, but that hasn’t happened since Week 4, as mistakes are creating short field for opponents—of Bears’ four TDs last week, three came on drives of 44 or less yards. Chargers have only run ball for 70.7 ypg the last three weeks. Under is 3-1-1 in San Diego home games.
Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6) - Four of Chiefs’ six losses are by 28+ points; with journeyman QB Palko now starting QB, doesn’t bode well for Haley’s job security. His team figures to get pounded here by Steelers, team Haley’s dad worked for when he was a kid. Roethlisberger hurt his thumb in pre-bye game, so he’s not 100%; Steelers are 5-2 in last seven post-bye games, winning last three by scores of 38-10/28-10/28-10. Chiefs fell apart in second half of loss in Foxboro Monday night, their third straight loss by combined score of 82-16. Home side won four of last five series games, with Steelers losing three of last four visits here (win in ’01). Seven of last eight Kansas City games stayed under the total.
Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3) - Saints won last two post-bye games 48-27/34-19; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning by average score of 40-17. Giants are 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards, 2-4 when they don’t; they’ve run ball for average of 72.8 ypg in four post-bye games. Saints held only one of last eight opponents under 100 rushing yards (Bucs had 84) so chance for Giants to control ball on ground here in Eli’s second homecoming to Crescent City. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Giants losing last three here, last two by 45-7/48-27 scores; last time Giants won here was in ’93. Giants lost last two games, with three TD’s, 10 3/outs on their last 22 drives.
Tip Sheet - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 12 card on Sunday involves a handful of home teams without dynamic offenses laying points. Those squads include the Jets, Bengals, Seahawks, and Chargers – all teams that are ranked 12th or lower in the league in points per game. The question heading into Sunday is which clubs are worth backing? We’ll start at Met Life Stadium with an AFC East showdown in which the loser is likely knocked out of playoff contention.
Bills at Jets (-9, 42)
New York drilled Buffalo in Orchard Park three weeks ago, 27-11, beginning a tailspin for the Bills in which Chan Gailey's team has lost three consecutive games. The Jets have gone backwards since that blowout win with losses to the Patriots and Broncos the last two weeks to fall to 5-5. New York goes for the all-important sweep to gain the tiebreaker over Buffalo, while the Bills will try to end their skid without their most important offensive weapon.
Fred Jackson, the league's third-leading rusher, is out for the rest of the season with a broken bone in his left leg, further hurting Buffalo's shot at a Wild Card berth. Both teams haven't profited from an ATS standpoint, while the Bills are just 1-3-1 ATS away from home. The Jets are 3-2 ATS at home, including a 2-0 ATS mark as a touchdown favorite or more. New York is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings in this series, including three consecutive victories by double-digits.
Browns at Bengals (-7½, 37½)
The battle of Ohio takes place on the South Side at Paul Brown Stadium as the Bengals (6-4) look to sweep the Browns (4-6). Cincinnati stunned Cleveland in Week 1 as 6 ½-point road underdogs, 27-17, as the Bengals scored two late touchdowns to win outright. The victory by Cincinnati started an unlikely ATS run that resulted in seven of eight covers, while racking up a 6-2 SU record.
Marvin Lewis' club has crashed back to reality following consecutive losses to the big boys in the AFC North, falling to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are one of the top 'over' teams in the league with an 8-2 mark, including an 'over' in last Sunday's 31-24 setback to the Ravens. The Browns snapped a three-game skid by holding off the Jaguars, 14-10, but Cleveland has scored 17 points or less in nine of 10 games this season.
Redskins at Seahawks (-3½, 37)
There are no playoff implications when Washington (3-7) heads to the Pacific Northwest to battle Seattle (4-6), but this game does have some interesting storylines. The Redskins' dismal offense is expected to get back wide receiver Santana Moss after missing the last four games with a fractured left hand. Washington has dropped six straight games following a 3-1 start, while finally cashing a ticket in last Sunday's overtime loss to Dallas, 27-24 as seven-point 'dogs.
The Seahawks are listed as a favorite for the first time this season, as Pete Carroll's club has turned into a hidden gem for gamblers. Seattle owns a 6-3-1 ATS record, including three consecutive covers against Dallas, Baltimore, and St. Louis. The Seahawks are 3-1 ATS at Qwest Field, while going 7-4 ATS in Carroll's tenure at home. The Redskins are making their first visit to Seattle since a 20-17 victory over the Seahawks in 2008.
Broncos at Chargers (-6, 42)
The AFC West was San Diego's to lose this season after falling short in 2010. However, the Lightning Bolts have crashed and burned with five straight losses following a 4-1 start as the Chargers attempt to catch the Raiders in the West. San Diego will try to end its losing ways against a re-born Denver squad that is 4-1 since inserting Tim Tebow into the starting quarterback role.
The Broncos (5-5) aren't dead yet in the AFC West as John Fox's club is fresh off a 17-13 victory over the Jets as six-point home 'dogs. Denver has covered three straight games in the underdog role, but the Broncos are just 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS the last 10 meetings against the Chargers. San Diego held off Denver, 29-24 in Week 5 as 3 ½-point favorites, the last victory for the Bolts prior to this five-game skid. The Chargers, are tied with the Colts and Rams with the worst pointspread records in the league at 2-8 ATS, while San Diego has compiled a 1-4 ATS mark at home.
Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 11 Recap
The ‘under’ express notched another winning week with an 8-6 record. The toughest beat was for bettors who had the ‘over’ in the Dolphins-Bills contest. Miami led 28-6 at halftime and won the game 35-8, but the combined 43 points still fell ‘under’ the closing number of 44. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 80-74-5 (52%).
Mid-Week Alert
Most of you playing totals know that all three games went ‘under’ on Thanksgiving. When you include the two previous games played on Thursdays this season, the ‘under’ stands at 5-0. Defense has dominated these affairs so far and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trend continue in Week 13, when Philadelphia travels to Seattle on Dec. 1.
Off the Bye
Playing the ‘under’ in teams off the BYE this season has been nothing short of gold. This is the final week where we will see teams playing with rest until the playoffs. On the season, the number stands at 21-8 (75%) to the ‘under.’ The last four teams are listed below.
Houston at Jacksonville: This is the lowest total on the board (37.5) and you could argue that the number should be lower. The Texans (6-3) and Jaguars (9-1) have both been ‘under’ teams all season. Matt Leinart will make his start at quarterback for Houston in what should be a real “vanilla” game plan. Jaguars’ rookie Blaine Gabbert looks lost behind center, which explains the offensive numbers (12.5 PPG). Houston beat Jacksonville 24-14 on Oct. 30 and the game went ‘under’ the number (41).
Indianapolis vs. Carolina: If you want a definition of an inflated total, then this is it. The number came out at 43 and has been spiked to 45 ½ points at a couple shops. Why, because Carolina lost 49-35 to Detroit last week? I guess people forgot the Panthers lost to the Titans 30-3 two weeks ago at home. We understand Carolina has weapons and they can score, but they can also be flat too. And for those who believe Indianapolis can play in a shootout, take a look at its last four games. The Colts have scored 7, 10, 7 and 3 points. Do you really think a week off will help this group?
Pittsburgh at Kansas City: (See Under the Lights)
New Orleans vs. N.Y. Giants: (See Under the Lights)
System Plays
The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up again this week with not one but two games. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 68% (26-12-2) over the last seven seasons, but unfortunately only 1-2 in 2011. It could easily be 3-0, 2-1 or 0-3 if the ball bounces a different way.
Four more matchups left, two of them this Sunday, which are listed below:
Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore
Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Under the Lights
Bettors caught a couple snoozers last week as both games went ‘under’ the number. The ‘over’ was never threatened in either the Eagles-Giants or Chiefs-Patriots affairs. However, we will extend an early holiday greeting to gamblers who took the ‘over’ in the second-half of the New England-Kansas City game. It was never in doubt, right? Despite the two low-scoring affairs last week, the ‘over’ still holds a 14-9-1 (61%) in primetime battles this season.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City: When you look at the total tendencies, you ask yourself what’s going to give here. The Steelers have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 on the road, while the Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 from Arrowhead Stadium. The opener was 39 but it’s been bumped up to 40, which is a little surprising. The Chiefs have put up 16 points in their last three games, plus the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight for the team. Pittsburgh does have the weapons to score but is QB Ben Roethlisberger (thumb) 100 percent? Temperatures expected to be in the thirties with the wind chill for the night game, which could mean a lot of ground and pound for Pittsburgh.
N.Y. Giants at New Orleans: The Saints are averaging 39.8 PPG at home this season, largely due to their 62-point outburst against the Colts on Oct. 23. Since then, the team has been somewhat pedestrian of offense (24.3 PPG). The total has gone 2-2 in the four games from the Superdome. New York has some options on offense to go deep, but its running game has been missing. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four for the Giants, due to an inconsistent offense (18.5 PPG) and decent defense (20.5 PPG). New York has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 in its five road games. The opener on this contest was 52 but it’s dropped to 50½ points. Make a note that totals of 50 points or more have watched the ‘under’ go 8-7 this season, which includes the Thanksgiving ‘under’ between Packers and Lions. Also, New Orleans is off the bye and that’s been a solid ‘under’ investment this season too, as noted above. These teams squared off at the same venue in 2009 and New Orleans crushed New York 48-27, easily jumping ‘over’ the closing number of 47 ½.
Fearless Predictions
After a great Week 11 card, which saw all four wagers cash ($400), we took a back seat on Thanksgiving with some bad calls (1-3, -220). Heading into the weekend, we’re up $460 on the season based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Buffalo-N.Y. Jets 41.5
Best Under: Houston-Jacksonville 37.5
Best Team Total: Over 26.5 New York Jets 26.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 32.5 Buffalo-N.Y. Jets
Over 40.5 New England-Philadelphia
Under 49 Pittsburgh-Kansas City
Sunday Night Football: Steelers at Chiefs
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5, 40)
THE STORY: Few teams have made much better use of their bye week than the Pittsburgh Steelers in the past few seasons. The Steelers will look to make it four consecutive wins coming off a bye when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has mauled the opposition following a bye in the past three seasons, putting up 94 points and allowing only 30 in those games. No player needed the extra week off more than Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who fractured a thumb on his throwing hand in a win at Cincinnati on Nov. 13 but is expected to play Sunday. The injury-riddled Chiefs have lost three straight.
LINE: Pittsburgh opened as a 10.5-point favorite and has climbed as high as -11. The total has climbed from 38 to 40 points.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-3, 5-5 ATS): Pittsburgh has won five of its last six, with a last-second loss to Baltimore the only blemish during that stretch. Still, Mike Tomlin has not been satisfied with the team’s play and benched three veterans – WR Hines Ward, CB Bryant McFadden and LG left guard Chris Kemoeatu. With Roethlisberger’s thumb an issue, the Steelers may look to get RB Rashard Mendenhall untracked against Kansas City’s 28th-ranked run defense. He has only one 100-yard game this season.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Kansas City has sandwiched a pair of three-game losing skids around a four-game winning streak. QB Tyler Palko make his first career start last week and acquitted himself well for a half before winding up with three interceptions in a 34-3 loss at New England. Palko will likely return to the bench following Sunday’s start after the Chiefs picked up Kyle Orton on waivers Wednesday. Kansas City has scored 16 points in its last three games.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Kansas City.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Kansas City is 5-0 in its last five Sunday night home games.
2. Steelers WR Mike Wallace needs 78 yards for his second straight 1,000-yard season.
3. Kansas City ranks last in the league in sacks (12.0) while the Steelers are at the bottom in interceptions (4).
PREDICTION: Steelers 27, Chiefs 6. Pittsburgh pads its interception stats at the expense of Palko.
Chiefs look for an upset
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Sunday’s finale between Pittsburgh and Kansas City allows us to go back to the well and dig up a proven betting system in the NFL.
Plenty of gamblers buy too much into perception and what just happened the week before, especially in the NFL. Sometimes, teams that didn’t perform well the prior week are actually strong looks in their next game.
Numbers never lie and all bettors looking for another angle should check out the below system that has been a proven winner annually.
Play on any home underdog that is coming off a road loss of at least 21 points or more
Since 2006 and including this season, teams in these situations have gone 34-21 against the spread, hitting at a 62% clip.
If you delve into these numbers further, you’ll see that these underdogs own a sterling 22-10 ATS (69%) mark when receiving at least 5½-points.
How has the system performed this season?
2011 Home Underdog Results
Road Loss of 21 or more Following Week at Home SU - ATS Results
Indianapolis 7 Houston 34 Cleveland 27 Indianapolis (+1.5) 19 LOSS - LOSS
Seattle 0 Pittsburgh 24 Arizona 10 Seattle (+3) 13 WIN - WIN
Denver 23 Green Bay 49 San Diego 29 Denver (+3.5) 24 LOSS - LOSS
Tampa Bay 3 San Francisco 48 New Orleans 20 Tampa Bay (+6) 26 WIN - WIN
Minnesota 10 Chicago 39 Green Bay 33 Minnesota (+10) 27 LOSS - WIN
St. Louis 7 Dallas 34 New Orleans 21 at St. Louis (+13.5) 31 WIN - WIN
Washington 0 Buffalo 23 San Francisco 19 at Washington (+5) 11 LOSS - LOSS
Kansas City 3 New EnglandDallas 34 Pittsburgh at Kansas City TBD - TBD
Looking at the above table, you can see that the results are 3-4 straight up and 4-3 against the spread (57%). You’re probably laughing at the 57 percent but that’s a better record than most handicappers and bettors.
Here’s where it gets better. As stated above, the system really plays out well when the point-spread is 5 ½ or more. This season, it’s a perfect 3-0 ATS and not surprisingly 2-1 SU as well. If you do the quick math, that's a 25-10 (71%) record over the past eight seasons with 'dogs in this range.
Let’s fast forward to Arrowhead Stadium and look at tonight’s line and matchup.
The Chiefs were blasted by 31 points (3-34) at New England last Monday, while Pittsburgh was on its bye week.
Kansas City competed for a half (3-10) between backup quarterback Tyler Palko but were outclassed in the final 30 minutes, getting outscored 24-0.
The Steelers are currently listed anywhere from 10 to 11-point road favorites at most shops. Can Pittsburgh cover this number on the road? The Steelers can definitely be called bullies, since they’re 3-0 SU this season when laying double digits. However, they’re only 1-2 ATS, with non-covers coming against Indianapolis (23-20) on the road and Jacksonville (17-13) at home.
Another reason why you might want to take the points tonight is Kansas City’s tendencies at home. The Chiefs are 2-3 both SU and ATS, but both victories came as underdogs. Coincidentally, all of the losses occurred when they were laying points.
Gamblers believing the above and looking for a big score can take Kansas City at a generous 9/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $450) on the money-line.
Is it even possible?
Two years ago, the Chiefs upset the Steelers 27-24 in overtime as 11-point home ‘dogs.
As you all know, nothing is guaranteed in sports betting but the premise of this system is to not discount teams that are coming off less than stellar performances, since you can find value in these squads as ‘dogs, especially in their house.
Kickoff is slated at 8:20 p.m. EDT, with NBC providing coverage.