NFL Betting News and Notes Week 12

Betting Recap - Week 11
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 11 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 8-5
Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-7
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 2-11

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Buccaneers (+7, ML +260) at Chiefs, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-12) at 49ers, 30-17
Steelers (-9) at Browns, 24-9
Cowboys (-7) vs. Ravens, 27-17

Road Bucs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted another road win and cover against the Kansas City Chiefs, improving to 4-1 SU/ATS away from home, while managing a 1-4 SU/ATS mark at Raymond James Stadium. Unfortunately for the Bucs they're back home in Week 12 against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are 2-2-1 SU/3-2 ATS away from the 12th Man and Pacific Northwest so far this season.

Miami Nice

The Miami Dolphins stayed out on the west coast after their win last week in San Diego, acclimating themselves. They slipped behind 10-0 against the Los Angeles Rams, but rallied for the 14-10 victory against rookie QB Jared Goff in his NFL debut. The Dolphins have won five straight games since a 1-4 SU/ATS start, and they're 4-0-1 ATS during the win streak. The Dolphins also improved to 3-0 ATS in the Pacific Time Zone.

Total Recall

The 'over' has been dominant this season, but Week 11 was a low-scoring week of action with the 'under' hitting in 11 of 13 games heading into the Monday night game between Houston Texans-Oakland Raiders at Estadia Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. In three AFC battles (with one remaining), the 'under' was a perfect 3-0. In five games between NFC foes the 'under' ended up 3-2. In five games featuring AFC vs. NFC teams the 'under' was a perfect 5-0. Through the first 11 weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 82-76 (51.9%).

The two games with totals under 40 points ended up splitting 1-1 in the 'over/under'. The Arizona-Minnesota (39.5) ended up going 'over' with 54 points, helped out by two defensive/special teams scored by the Vikings on plays over 100 yards each. The lowest total of the week was in the Miami-Los Angeles game, and the 'over' was never threatened. There were just 10 total points through the first three quarters in the uncharacteristic rains of Southern California.

There were three games with totals of 51 or more points, and all three games ended up going 'under'. The Tennessee-Indianapolis game had 28 points at halftime, and it appeared the 'over' was on its way. Defense suddenly took over and there were just one touchdown in the third quarter and two field goals in the fourth quarter.

The 'over/under' was 1-1 in two primetime games leading up to the International Series game between the Texans and Raiders (45) Monday night. Officially, the 'over' is 16-17 (48.4%) through 33 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Bengals WR A.J. Green (hamstring) suffered what is believed to be a significant hamstring tear, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. To make matters worse, RB Giovani Bernard (knee) suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee and he will miss the remainder of the season as well.

Bills RB LeSean McCoy (thumb) left the game in Cincinnati due to a thumb injury and he was unable to return. It turned out to be a dislocation which will require surgery.

Eagles RB Ryan Mathews (knee) was in a brace and limping after suffering a medial collateral ligament injury in the loss in Seattle. RB Darren Sproles (ribs) was also forced out early due to an injury to his ribs, leaving the running back duties in the hands of rookie Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner.

Seahawks RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder) was forced out due to what was termed a "significant scapula" injury, and he is expected to miss time. The team did welcome back RB Thomas Rawls (leg) from a lengthy injury.

Looking Ahead

The Vikings and Lions do battle on Thanksgiving in the early game, and Minnesota is looking for revenge after a 22-16 overtime loss at home when Golden Tate found the end zone midway through the extra session. The Lions are 3-2 SU in their past five home games at Ford Field against the Vikings, but just 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'under' has cashed in five of the past five meetings in this series.

Detroit has won each of their past three games on Thanksgiving, and they have covered four in a row on the holiday. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four Thanksgiving games for the Lions, and 5-1 in their past six.

The Redskins and Cowboys renew acquaintances in Big D in the mid-afternoon Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys won 27-23 in the nation's capital in Week 2, winning and covering with an 'over' result. The Cowboys have won and covered in three of the past four with three 'over' results. However, in their past eight home games against Washington the Cowboys are 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS.

Dallas has won just two of their past six games on Thanksgiving, including a 38-31 loss Nov. 22, 2012 against the Redskins. The Cowboys have failed to cover in five straight Thanksgiving games while the 'over' has connected in three of the past four, and four of the past six on the holiday.

The Jets host the Patriots, and it is usually a high-scoring affair when the two AFC East rivals get together. While the Jets are just 2-8 SU in the past 10 matchups, they are 5-0-1 ATS over the past six meetings and 10-5-1 ATS over the past 16. In the past six meetings in the Meadowlands, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in the past three. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six in New Jersey, and 11-2 in the past 13 meetings overall in this series.

Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

If you’ve been blindly betting the Cowboys (9-0-1 ATS) and the Patriots (8-2 ATS), and blindly fading the Browns (2-9 ATS) and the 49ers (2-8 ATS) this NFL season, you’ve cashed tickets at a stout 34-6-1 clip.

“What’s been hurting us the most is the Cowboys and Patriots covering every week and the Browns and the Niners failing to cover,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology.

“Free money (for bettors). Just bet against the Niners and the Browns,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., said of the tough day for his book on Sunday.

Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said public action on the Cowboys has picked up in recent weeks. “They bet against them at Green Bay (in Week 6), but since that game they’ve been betting them religiously,” he said of the gamblers at his shop.

The Cowboys, who have covered every spread since pushing against the Giants in Week 1, take their traditional featured spot on Thanksgiving Day next week, opening as solid home favorites against the Redskins.

Here’s a look at the opening betting lines for the entire Week 12 slate, with more insight from Bogdanovich, Simbal and Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books noted as well.

Thursday, Nov. 24

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Some shops were dealing Detroit -3 (even) for the early Thanksgiving Day contest. The Lions have won five of their last six but have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season. While that’s not confidence-inspiring, it’s fair to say the Vikings were fortunate in their 30-24 home win over Arizona on Sunday that snapped a four-game losing streak.

Just a few weeks ago, the Lions won at Minnesota as 4.5-point dogs, 22-16 in overtime. But Minnesota owns a 3-7-1 ATS record over Detroit in their last 11 meetings.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7/-120)

Perhaps under the radar thanks the Cowboys’ nine-game winning streak, the Redskins, since losing their first two games of the season, are 6-1-1 SU and 7-1 ATS, including Sunday night’s 42-24 win as 3-point home favorites against the Packers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even) at Indianapolis Colts

While most shops opened Pitt -3 (even), CG Technology hung -3 (flat) and moved to -3 (-105) after booking some sharp action on the home dog.

Sunday, Nov. 27

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (-1)

The Texans are a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season, so the opportunity to play them as such a short favorite (better yet, at pick ‘em at CG) has to entice some bettors. But most bettors are not buying Brock Osweiler. Plus, this looks like a good spot for the Chargers, coming off a bye and facing a Houston team that has to play the Raiders on Monday night in Mexico.

“(Bettors) love playing teams off a bye because 1) you can get healthy and 2) you can game plan, and the other team is coming off a short week and a weird environment, Mexico,” Bogdanovich said.

He added of next week’s line, “One thing for sure with San Diego is it’s going to be close at the end, so anything near a pick ‘em with San Diego blindly is right.”

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

This spread ranged from Chicago -1 to -2 around Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Westgate hung Buffalo -6.5 but moved to -7 after a few minutes of wagering, and that’s where the rest of town opened the game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

CG moved from Baltimore -3 to -3 (-120) after a limit-bet on the favorite, Simbal said, while William Hill moved from -3.5 to -3 (-120).

To some, the outlook looks bleak in Cincinnati, and the loss of A.J. Green (hamstring) isn’t helping matters.

“He’s huge, he’s their only weapon, and they’re another team spiraling out of control,” Bogdanovich said. “They’re a mess. They’re a run-first team, but they aren’t running the ball and now their only big playmaker is gone. They left three good years on the table where they should have advanced in the playoffs. Sometimes that window closes, and this window is closing. I see Marvin Lewis getting fired. I think Cincinnati is a disaster, and they’re definitely a play-against team the rest of the way.”

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

This line ranged from 3.5 at the Wynn to 4.5 at the William Hill. While his shop opened at the high end of the market, Bogdanovich pointed out that Arizona, statistics-wise, has been the better team even in some of its losses.

“Arizona’s a weird story,” Bogdanovich said. “They completely dominated a good Seattle team, and (Sunday) they completed dominated (the Vikings), but they keep shooting themselves in the foot with catastrophic plays. You can’t fade 100-yard interception returns and 100-yard kickoff returns. You look at the box score and you’d bet your kidney and your lungs on Arizona at pick ‘em.”

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-8 )

While some books were dealing Miami -7.5 on Sunday night, the Westgate and William Hill both opened -8.5 and moved to -8.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

GC opened New Orleans -6 before a move to -6.5 a few hours later, while the Saints opened -7 elsewhere. This will be Jared Goff’s first start on the road in the NFL. Based on Sunday’s home game vs. the Dolphins, Goff’s first NFL start, Bogdanovich doesn’t see much difference between the rookie and Case Keenum.

“About the same,” Bogdanovich said. “(Goff) didn’t do a whole hell of a lot (Sunday). They weren’t going to let him do a whole hell of a lot. They led the entire game, and they never got aggressive or tried to put it up or tried to press. They thought 10 would be enough. I know one thing: the defensive players for the Rams gotta be sick. They wasted these two, three years of good defenses with horrific offenses.”

New York Giants (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

There was a mix of 6.5 and -7 (even) for this one, and it’s fair to wonder if sharp money is going to keep chasing Cleveland. When it comes to the Browns this season, the public has gotten the better of the sharps.

“The Cleveland numbers get so inflated that you usually get wiseguys playing back on Cleveland, which we had a lot of (Sunday vs. Pittsburgh), but the public goes against Cleveland like clockwork,” Salmons said.

Meanwhile, the Giants have won five straight, but Salmons is not yet convinced.

“I don’t think much of the Giants,” he said. “They beat Cincinnati by 1 last week, they were lucky to beat the Bears (Sunday). They’re winning, but I don’t think much of the Giants.”

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Simbal said while Seattle has become a hot bet-on team for his customers, his shop took a wiseguy play on Tampa Bay +6. Simbal’s team didn’t move the number, though, with plenty of Seahawks money expected to show up.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-4)

The Westgate opened Oakland -4.5 and moved to -4, while CG was dealing -3.5 on Sunday night. Two factors could influence how this line moves: the way the Raiders perform Monday night against the Texans in Mexico and the status of Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is in concussion protocol.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5/-120)

CG originally hung 4 on this AFC West showdown that has been flexed into NBC’s prime-time slot, but that number didn’t last long, and Denver -3.5 (-120) was the most prevalent line Sunday night in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots (-9) at New York Jets

As the Westgate, New England grew from a 7.5- to an 8.5-point road favorite at its division rival, but that number was still on the low end of the market, as most shops were dealing -9. The Pats are 1-6 ATS in their last six trips to the Jets as favorites.

Monday, Nov. 28

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Week 12 Monday nighter doesn’t look nearly as sexy as it did earlier this season. Green Bay has lost five of its last six games; Philly has lost five of seven.

NFL Week 12

Chargers (4-6) @ Texans (6-4) — Short week for Houston after Monday night game in Mexico City, while Chargers are coming off a bye. Texans are 5-0 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites; Bolts are 2-5 in last seven post-bye games, scoring 11.5 pts/game in last four; they’re 1-4 on road this year, with four of five games decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Chargers are 3-2 as road underdogs, 2-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 3-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less. San Diego won four of last five series games, winning 27-20/29-23 here; average total in last four series games, 50.8. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 11-3 vs spread, AFC South home teams are 7-7. Over is 8-2 in San Diego games this year, 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games.

Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8 ) — Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.

Jaguars (2-8 ) @ Bills (5-5) — Both teams have fired their OC during season; Jax is 0-3 since they canned their OC, losing by 5-3-7 points, turning ball over nine times (-7) on 35 drives. Buffalo lost three of last four games, is 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home favorites; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD in five of last seven games. Jaguars lost last five games, are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 24-14-5 points, with win at Chicago 17-16, after they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bills are 2-2 vs spread as favorites this year. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-5 vs spread; AFC South road teams are 5-7. Over is 6-4 in Jaguar games, 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games. NFL-wide, favorites of 7+ points are 20-15-1 vs spread this season.

Bengals (3-6-1) @ Ravens (5-5) — Cincy is 3-6-1 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games this year; they’re 1-4-1 in last six games, losing last two by total of 5 points- they lost last four true road games, by 8-14-1-18. Bengals’ only road win this year was 23-22 in Swamp Stadium over Jets back in Week 1. Baltimore won its last two home games; they’re 4-1 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-4 when they allow more. Ravens are 3-2 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-7-21, losses to Raiders/Redskins. Bengals won last five series games, with 3 of 5 by 7+ points; Bengals won 23-16/28-24 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC North games this season. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four road games, 5-1 in last six Raven games.

Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Falcons (6-4) — Arizona coach Arians was hospitalized Monday with chest pains; coaching is stressful. Home side won last eight series games; Redbirds lost last seven visits here, with last win here in ’93. Cardinals turned ball over 8 times (-5) in last three games; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, allowing 33-30 points to Bills/Vikings. Atlanta is 2-3 in last five games after a 4-1 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 1-15 points- average total in Falcon home games, 66.3 (over 4-0). All four Arizona road games also went over. Atlanta is 6-1 in last seven post-bye games (5-2 vs spread). Redbirds are 1-3 on road, with only win at SF (0-2 as road underdog)— all four road games went over total. Over is 8-2 in Atlanta games. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-4 on road. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.

49ers (1-9) @ Dolphins (6-4) — Miami won/covered last five games after 1-4 start, rallying from down 10-0 with 5:00 to go last week in LA- they trailed three of last four games at half. Dolphins are 4-1 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-15-3-4 points. Opponents are 17 of 59 on 3rd down during Miami’s win streak. Fish are +8 in turnovers the last five games. 49ers lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-19-29-3 points (cover was at Arizona). SF was outscored 75-26 in 2nd half of last five games. Niners won five of last seven series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’08. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-3 at home. NFC West underdogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in Niners’ last nine games.

Rams (4-6) @ Saints (4-6) — New Orleans scored 25+ points in all four of its wins; they’re 0-4 when they score less than 25. First road start for rookie QB Goff; at least it won’t rain like it did in his debut LW. Rams have two offensive TDs on their last 43 drives; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 4-0 as road underdogs, with road losses 28-0 at SF, 31-28 in Detroit. New Orleans had three extra days to prep after Thursday game last week; Saints lost last two games by total of 5 points. NO is 2-3 SU at home, with underdog covering all five games- Saints are 0-3 as home faves. Rams won four of last six series games; last one was in ’13. LA is 4-2 in last six visits here (last one in ’10). NFC West non-divisional dogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 4-9, 2-7 at home. Last four Ram games, four of Saints’ last five games stayed under total.

Giants (7-3) @ Browns (0-11) — Cleveland is awful and tired; their bye is next week. New York has 7 wins by total of 27 points; none by more than seven points. Giants are 1-2 in true road games, with only win 20-19 in Dallas- they beat the Rams 17-10 in London, on a neutral field. Cleveland goes back to McCown at QB this week; they’ve been outscored 70-17 in second half of their last four games. Browns are 1-3-1 as home underdogs, with losses on Lake Erie by 5-20-3-25-15 points. Giants won three of four series games; all four were decided by 14+ points- teams split two meetings here, with last one in ‘08. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-9, 0-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven Giant games, 3-0 in Browns’ last three games.

Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Buccaneers (5-5) — Seattle is on a roll, winning last three games by 6-7-11 points; they’re 2-2-1 on road, with wins 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro. Seahawks are +9 in turnovers over their last seven games, after being -5 in first three. Tampa Bay won its last two games; they’ve allowed 27+ points in all five losses- they’re 5-0 allowing less than 27. Bucs are 1-4 at home with only win over Chicago; their home losses are by 5-20-6-15 points. Tampa is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 1-2 at home. These teams came into NFL together in 1976. Bucs won three of last four series games; seven of last nine series games stayed under. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC South underdogs are 9-2, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-6) @ Raiders (8-2) — Short week for Oakland after win in Mexico City Monday; they’ve won/covered last four games, scoring 30 pts/game. Raiders are 2-2 at home this year, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-10 in Coliseum— they lost to Falcons/Chiefs. Panthers are 3-1 since their bye, with last three games all decided by exactly 3 points; Carolina is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-15-3 points, and win in LA- this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Carolina is 3-2 in series games; four of five games were decided by 11+ points; they split two visits here, with last trip here in ‘08. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Over is 8-2 in Oakland games; last three Panther games stayed under.

Chiefs (7-3) @ Broncos (7-3) — If playoffs started today, this would be AFC Wild Card game. Chiefs had 5-game win streak snapped at home LW; their last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. KC is 3-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs; favorites covered four of their five road games. Broncos won/covered four of five home games, with lone loss to Falcons; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Denver won seven of last eight series games, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 35-10-7 points (Chiefs won 29-13 here LY), NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-16-1 vs spread in divisional games this season. Under is 8-1 in Chiefs’ last nine games, 5-2 in Denver’s last seven. Kansas City is +17 in turnovers in its seven wins; they were -1/-2/-1 in losses- they have only one win this year with negative turnover ratio.

Patriots (8-2) @ Jets (3-7) — New England is 8-2 in last ten series games, with both losses in OT; average total in last five series games, 48.2. Patriots are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won/covered all four road games since Brady came back, winning by 20-11-16-13 points, but Gronkowski won’t play here, Brady didn’t practice Wednesday. Fitzpatrick is back at QB for Jets after Petty played in 9-6 home loss to Rams; Jets are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. NY is 1-3 at home, with win over Ravens; losses were by 1-10-3 points. Jets’ last three games were all decided by 4 or less points- they’re 2-5 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 11-5 vs spread this year in divisional games. Under is 4-1 in Patriot road games, 5-1 in Jets’ last six games.

Packers (4-6) @ Eagles (5-5) — Philly won/covered all four of its home games, winning by 14-31-11-9 points, but they’re 2-5 overall since a 3-0 start, averaging less than six yards/pass attempt in five of last six games. Green Bay lost its last four games, allowing 153 points, worst 4-game stretch for Packer defense since 1958 (year before Lombardi arrived). Pack lost its last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; this is also their third straight road game, a historically soft spot for NFL teams. Packers won four of last five series games, with last meeting a 53-20 beatdown at Lambeau in 2014- they won last two visits here, both in ‘10. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-2. Under is 4-0 in Eagle games this year; last four Green Bay games went over total.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

There's a lot Thanksgiving leftovers in Las Vegas, but not the kind the sports books like.

Thursday's three NFL games put the books in a hole for one of the most volatile weekends of the year where carryover risk daisy-chains into Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then finally concludes with a big firecracker on Monday night. The ideal Thanksgiving for the books is to bank enough money Thursday to offset some of that eventual risk that will morph into big payouts.

"Teasers killed us yesterday," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I shouldn't say killed, but we lost on the day due to them."

If you bet all sides on the Thursday teaser, you went 5-1 with the Colts being the only side that failed. If you bet all sides of the teaser, including the total, in the Redskins-Cowboys game, you went 4-0. Fortunately for the books the popular Cowboys (-5.5) barely failed to cover the number which slowed parlay risk. But the bad news for all the books was that everyone reloaded with the Steelers (-8 ) in the nightcap, and many of those parlay and teaser tickets are still alive heading into the weekend.

Sunday's Week 12 games aren't the most attractive, but they'll still be wagered on heavily just because that's what we do, right? Andrews took some time out of his busy Friday afternoon to review where the South Point's heaviest risk is at with more than 85 percent of the action still to come over the next three days.

"We've seen lots of Titans action with all the questions about Chicago's quarterback," said Andrews. "The line has been driven up from -2.5 to -4.5."

Bears QB Jay Cutler is 'out' for the game and back-up Matt Barkley will start, which is part of the reason so many love Tennessee laying points on the road this week.

"We've had strong opinions and heavy action on both sides of the Cardinals and Falcons (-5) game," Andrews said showing that people still believe in the Cardinals after not covering their past three games. But the high scoring Falcons have covered just once in their last four.

"The Saints are one of those games that the wise guys and public are both on. Wise guys bet it from -7 to -7.5, and the public has been betting it ever since. It's going to be a huge game for us, and I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, Fisher will open it up a little more and give Goff a chance to do something on offense."

The Rams defense and the conservative offense has helped their last four games stay 'under' while the Saints have gone 8-2-1 to the 'over' in their last 11 home games. The total is sitting at 45.5, the only total lower than 50 offered at New Orleans this season.

"The public loves the Giants, but the sharps are on the Browns making us go from -7 to -6.5," said Andrews. "Still, this is a huge teaser game for us; the parlay's and money-line are high too with the Giants."

The teaser effect from Thanksgiving leftovers is making a few of these games stand out like sore thumbs for the books.

"We got a little wise-guy play on the Seahawks (-6 at Tampa Bay), and also a lot of teaser play with them. We're going to need a few upsets on the day to help us with these live teasers."

The best game of the day on paper looks to be an AFC West battle for second-place with Kansas City traveling to Denver for the Sunday night game.

"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos (-3.5)," Andrews said, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day so far."

Despite such an early sample size of action, the most one-sided bet game with ticket counts is, of course, on the Patriots.

"Wise guys are on the Jets (+7.5), but again the public is all over the Patriots."

Andrews can take at least some comfort in knowing Rob Gronkowski is 'doubtful' and that the Jets have gone 5-0-1 ATS against the Patriots the past three seasons.

Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 11 and Thanksgiving Day Recaps

The ‘under’ produced an 11-3 record in Week 11 as the defensive units dominated the offense last week. Only three teams were able to score 30-plus points and some of those numbers were misleading. The Redskins and Patriots scored 20 and 17 points respectively in the fourth quarter of their wins and the Vikings received 14 of their points from defense and special teams.

Thanksgiving Day continued the ‘under’ trend (2-1) and it was almost a perfect day for the low side but the Cowboys and Redskins combined for 34 points in the final 15 minutes and the ‘over’ winner certainly made the turkey taste better for many.

Excluding the holiday results, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with an 82-78-1 record through 11 weeks.

Week 12 – Keep an Eye on!

The Saints host the Rams on Sunday and New Orleans hasn’t had a total (45½) this low at home since the 2010 regular season when they met Seattle at the Superdome. The number seems fair considering Los Angeles has a very sound defense (18.7 PPG) and the combination of a rookie quarterback and Jeff Fisher scream ‘under’ tickets.

San Diego has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 this season, 4-1 on the road. However, the Bolts meet a Houston defense (16.4 PPG) that has been great at home.

The ‘over’ has gone 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings between the Jets and Patriots.

Oakland has watched the ‘over’ cash in four straight and eight of 10 games this season. Carolina visits this weekend and if you take away a pair of indoor shootouts, the Panthers defense (19.6 PPG) has stepped up in outdoor games.

The Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 in the second-half of their first 11 games, due to an offense averaging a league low 5.5 points per game in the final 30 minutes.

Road System

Since I started writing Total Talk in 2008, I’ve always appreciated the user feedback and love when trends, angles and systems are brought to my attention. The goal of VegasInsider.com is to inform and entertain, and hopefully help you win all of your wagers. With that being said, this particular total system was sent to me years ago and it’s something to keep an eye this weekend.

What’s the angle?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

The above fits this weekend when Green Bay plays at Philadelphia on Monday night. This situation only happens one another time this regular season, which will take place in Week 14 when Washington will play its third consecutive road game, coincidentally at Philadelphia.

I’ve charted the outcomes and the system has produced a 39-19-1 (67%) record the past 12 seasons but it did go 2-2 in the 2015 matchups.

Week 5: Jacksonville 31 at Tampa Bay 38 (Over 41½)
Week 10: Miami 20 at Philadelphia 19 (Under 49½)
Week 12: Buffalo 22 at Kansas City 30 (Over 41)
Week 15: Atlanta 17 at Jacksonville 23 (Under 48 )

Coast to Coast

This popular seasonal total trend returns in Week 12 with three situations on tap. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed. West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 11-1 (91.6%) this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 22-6 (79%) when these situations arise.

Obviously no system is perfect and I’d advise you to still handicap the matchup rather than betting this blindly. A case in point would be Week 10 when the Rams defeated the Jets 9-6 on the road in Week 10. New York made a late QB change and the ‘over’ never had a chance.

Arizona at Atlanta: This matchup has all the makings for a shootout and it’s the highest number (50½) on the board. The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 on the road and Atlanta has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team (8-2) this season. Arizona has made two trips to the East Coast this season and has surrendered 33 and 30 points.

San Francisco at Miami: This total (44½) seems a little tricky because Miami has serious injuries across the offensive line and that showed in last week’s effort at Los Angeles (14-10). The 49ers scoring defense is still ranked last (31.3 PPG) and they’ve allowed 46 and 45 points in two trips to the East Coast this season. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 at Hard Rock Stadium this season but a couple of those tickets were helped with late scores.

Seattle at Tampa Bay: Another tough total (45) to handicap because I believe Tampa Bay will have the opportunity to score on this banged-up Seattle defense. While I expect the Seahawks to move the ball, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid the last two weeks (both wins) with six turnovers and four sacks. The Bucs have been lit up at home this season (29.4 PPG) but the Seattle offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (17.4 PPG) on the road. The ‘Hawks scored 27 and 31 points in two East Coast matchups this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them based on making two cross-country trips in three weeks. Fortunately for Seattle, this is a late game (4:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the primetime matchups last week and both tickets to the high side cashed with late fourth quarter surges. Including Thursday’s holiday result between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the ‘under’ has gone 19-16-1 this season.

Kansas City at Denver: It’s always dangerous to lean ‘under’ with low totals (38½) but that appears to be the right lean based on what we’ve seen from the pair lately. The Chiefs have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 this season and that includes a run of six straight. Denver has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven and it’s been a solid ‘under’ bet off its bye week recently (4-1 last five). The ‘under’ has gone 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair.

Green Bay at Philadelphia: The Packers have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and the defense (38.3 PPG) has been embarrassed during this span. I’d expect Philadelphia’s offense to have success as well but the outcome of this total will come down to the Green Bay offense against the Philadelphia defense. All the numbers point to the Birds in that matchup, who are allowing a league-best 9.5 PPG at home this season and they shut down some quality quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan too. They also have run up 26 sacks in 10 games and 15 of those have come at home, which is tops in the NFL. Even though the above “road system” says ‘over’ in this matchup, I’d tread lightly based on the matchup.

Fearless Predictions

Another profitable weekend ($190) in Week 11 was quickly erased on Thanksgiving ($320) and the overall bankroll is barely staying in the black ($10). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Seattle-Tampa Bay 45

Best Under: Tennessee-Chicago 42

Best Team Total: Over 19½ Tampa Bay

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Tennessee-Chicago Under 51
Arizona-Atlanta Over 41½
Carolina-Oakland Under 58½

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Longtime AFC West Rivals Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos get it on at Sports Authority Field in this week's Sunday Night'r. The Chiefs' five game win streak ended this past week with a stunning 19-17 home loss to the Bucs moving the mark to 7-3 (4-5-1 ATS) on the campaign. Denver, which also holds a 7-3 record (7-3 ATS) defeated Saints 25-23 lin its last effort as 3-point road underdogs and enter refreshed off their bye week.

The betting market not overly impressed with Chiefs ability to get Winston and the Tampa Bay offense off the field in the loss at Arrowhead Stadium have given Denver the nod opening Broncos -3.0 point home favorites.

Adding fuel to the betting market's lean towards Denver. The Broncos sports a money-making 6-1-1 ATS record in front of the home audience, a sparkling 6-0 ATS streak after a bye, 11-2 ATS record last thirteen with an extra week to prepare. Additionally, Broncos have won seven of eight vs their division rival, twelve of fifteen as host in the series. Also, Broncos have a habit of coming up big at the betting window following an upset win as an underdog. In the last eleven such situations, Broncos have cashed 10 tickets with just one being tossed in the trash bin.

That said, do note the Chiefs have cashed four straight on the road vs a division opponent and have covered eight of nine in a division opponents back yard. One final nugget, Chiefs have a sparkling 6-1 record against the betting line following a loss the previous effort when squaring off against a division rival the next game.

Pick Six - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 11 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 32-34 SU, 29-35-1 ATS

Review: The Rams blew late 10-0 lead to the Dolphins, which was the most disappointing loss of the week. Both Indianapolis and Minnesota cashed at home, but Baltimore and Philadelphia couldn't come through as road underdogs.

Chargers (-2, 46½) at Texans

San Diego
Record: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

In spite of sitting in last place of the loaded AFC West, San Diego is several plays away from being in the middle of the AFC Wild Card race. The Chargers were off last week, but blew a 10-0 lead in a Week 10 home loss to the Dolphins, 31-24 as Philip Rivers was intercepted four times in the fourth quarter. San Diego is listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as the Chargers have won just once in five road contests coming at Atlanta in overtime in Week 7.

Houston
Record: 6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

Very curious line here as the Texans have yet to lose a game at NRG Stadium this season, going 5-0 at home. Houston returns to the friendly confines following a 27-20 loss to Oakland in Mexico City last Monday night in spite of limiting the Raiders to 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. The good news for the Texans is they have yet to lose back-to-back games this season, posting a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record off a defeat. Houston has never covered against San Diego in five lifetime meetings, while beating the Chargers only once, coming in the 2013 season opener, 31-28 at Qualcomm Stadium.

Best Bet: Houston +2

Bengals at Ravens (-4, 40½)

Cincinnati
Record: 3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

If things couldn’t get any worse for the struggling Bengals, Cincinnati lose offensive weapons Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green to long-term injuries in last Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Green is obviously a huge blow to this Cincinnati offense as the All-Pro wide receiver ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards with 964 yards as he is out with a hamstring tear. The Bengals have won only once in their last six games with that lone victory coming against the winless Browns, while losing four straight contests away from Paul Brown Stadium.

Baltimore
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Ravens have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, starting 3-0, then losing four straight, followed by a two-game winning streak. Baltimore took a step backwards last Sunday in a 27-17 defeat at Dallas as seven-point underdogs to drop its third consecutive road contest. The Ravens look to sweep the AFC North at home after picking up November home victories over the Steelers and Browns. Baltimore has dropped five straight meetings with Cincinnati, including a 28-24 home setback to the Bengals last season.

Best Bet: Baltimore -4

Cardinals at Falcons (-6, 50½)

Arizona
Record: 4-5-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Cardinals were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl last season, but were blown out in the NFC Championship by the Panthers. Arizona has never really built momentum off that playoff run as the Cardinals are attempting to reach the .500 mark with a win. The Cards outgained the Vikings last Sunday, 290-217, but Minnesota scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in a 30-24 victory. Arizona is 0-4 ATS the last four games, but the Cardinals have not been listed as an underdog of more than 2½ points this season.

Atlanta
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons sit atop the NFC South at 6-4 as they return to action off the bye week. Atlanta lost prior to the bye in a 24-15 setback at Philadelphia in its lowest-scoring game of the season. The Falcons have struggled to cash in the favorite role by posting a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record when laying points, while covering only once in the last nine tries as a home favorite under Dan Quinn. All four games played at the Georgia Dome this season have finished OVER the total, while the Falcons have won the last six meetings with the Cardinals at home since 1999.

Best Bet: Arizona +6

Seahawks (-6, 45) at Buccaneers

Seattle
Record: 7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Seahawks put together a pair of ugly performances to close out October with a tie at Arizona and a loss at New Orleans. However, Seattle has rebounded nicely in November by winning three straight games, including an underdog triumph at New England. The Seahawks have scored at least 26 points in each of the past three wins, including in a 26-15 home victory over the Eagles last Sunday as 6½-point favorites. In the Eastern Time Zone this season, Seattle owns a 2-0 SU/ATS record with wins over the Patriots and Jets, while posting victories in six of the past eight games on the east coast since 2014.

Tampa Bay
Record: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Only if the Buccaneers can play as well on the road as they do when they take the field at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay may lead the NFC South. The Bucs improved to 4-1 on the highway following last Sunday’s 19-17 triumph as seven-point underdogs at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has been the polar opposite at home by putting together a dreadful 1-4 record with the lone victory coming over Chicago. In four home losses, the Bucs have allowed at least 27 points, including defeats to the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos, all teams currently with six wins or more. Since the start of 2014, Tampa Bay has compiled a dreadful 3-7 ATS record in the role of a home underdog.

Best Bet: Seattle -6

Panthers at Raiders (-3, 49½)

Carolina
Record: 4-6 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Panthers venture out to the west coast trying to keep up momentum off a 3-1 run the last four games. Carolina held off New Orleans last Thursday, 23-20, but the Panthers failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites as the defending NFC champions played poorly in the fourth quarter for the second straight week. Since blowing out San Francisco in Week 2, Carolina owns a pathetic 1-6-1 ATS record the last eight games, while winning only once in four road contests. However, the Panthers are listed in the underdog role for the first time this season as Carolina put together a 2-0 SU/ATS mark as a ‘dog in 2015.

Oakland
Record: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Raiders have lived up to preseason expectations and then some by winning eight of their first 10 games. Oakland returns to the Black Hole after rallying past Houston last Monday night, 27-20 to pick up its fourth consecutive victory. The Silver and Black has cashed the OVER in all three games against NFC South opponents this season, but the Raiders are 2-5 against NFC foes under Jack Del Rio. In five opportunities as a home favorite since the start of 2015, the Raiders have covered only once, coming against the Broncos in a Week 9 victory.

Best Bet: Carolina +3

Patriots (-7½, 46) at Jets

New England
Record: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/5

Following a home loss to Seattle two weeks ago, the Patriots rebounded in a huge way with a 30-17 triumph over San Francisco to cash as 10½-point road favorites. Tom Brady tossed four touchdown passes for the second time in three weeks, while New England racked up 444 yards of offense to improve to 5-0 away from Gillette Stadium. Rob Gronkowski will sit for the second consecutive week for New England as the All-Pro tight end is out with a lung injury. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last three trips to Met Life Stadium, including dropping a 26-20 overtime decision last December as 2½-point favorites.

New York
Record: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 1000/1

The Jets return from the bye week trying to finish the season on a positive note after putting up only six points against the Rams two weeks ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick returns under center for the Jets after missing the Los Angeles defeat with a knee injury as backup Bryce Petty threw for 163 yards against the Rams. In last December’s overtime victory over New England, Fitzpatrick tossed three touchdown passes, as the New York quarterback threw five touchdowns and wasn’t intercepted once in two matchups against the Patriots.

Best Bet: New York +7½

SNF - Chiefs at Broncos
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Sunday Night Football gives us a classic AFC West matchup with Kansas City visiting Denver, but the circumstances this time around are a little unusual as neither of the two 7-3 teams are sitting in first-place. Oakland holds that distinction, but depending on how the Raiders (8-2) fare at home against Carolina, the winner of this game could find themselves in a first-place tie.

The Broncos come off a bye and are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a total hovering around 39. They've won three of their last four, including an improbable 25-23 win at New Orleans in their last game that featured a winning defensive two-point conversion. The offense has been extremely vanilla with QB Trevor Siemian while in search of a running game, but the No. 4 ranked defense has kept them within reach of a win in every game. The Orange Crush pass rush has sacked opposing QBs 29 times, just two behind NFL leading Buffalo.

Kansas City had a five-game win streak snapped as 7-point home favorites in a 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Just like Denver, they too have a vanilla averaging just 97 rushing ypg, but rely on the opportunistic defense to pave the way to victory. They lead the NFL with 23 turnovers forced and have a turnover ratio of +13. Denver's offense has turned the ball over 15 times and Siemian has been sacked 26 times, both areas that the Chiefs will look to exploit.

The Chiefs combination of a conservative offense and opportunistic defense has seen them stay Under the total in their last six and eight of 10 this season. The Broncos have stayed Under in five of their last seven. Both defenses allow only 18 ppg.

RECENT MEETINGS

The road team has covered the last five meetings, including the underdog covering the last four. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Under has gone 3-0-2 in the last five at Denver. Kansas City (+3.5, 42) won 29-13 at Denver in the last meeting in 2015 and Denver (+3, 42) won 31-24 at Kansas City in the earlier meeting.

LINE MOVEMENT

MGM sports books opened Denver -3 on Monday and within an hour it was bet up to -3.5 where it's remained all week through Saturday. The low number in town is at William Hill book at -3 (-120). The low total number is 38.5 at Stratosphere and Caesars books and the high number is at 39.5 at multiple books.

WHO THE BETTORS TAKING?

"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day."

ROBERTS' RATING

I have the Chiefs a half-point better than the Broncos and I give Denver a full three points for home field which makes my number Kansas City -2.5. I have the Raiders a half-point better than Kansas City making them the second highest rated AFC team, 4-points behind the Patriots.

DIVISION ODDS

The Broncos came into the season as 3-to-2 favorites to win the AFC West with the Chiefs close behind at 8-to-5. The Raiders were the third choice at 7-to-2 and currently lead the division which has forced the odds to flip with them as the 10-to-13 favorite. Denver is now 3-to-1 and Kansas City 11-to-4. The Chargers have been eliminated from contention.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Raiders (14/1), Broncos (20/1), Chiefs (25/1)

WEATHER

A storm front can sneak up over the rockies onto Denver at a moments notice, but as of Saturday there doesn't appear a chance of snow or rain. It will be a crisp 49 degrees, which isn't a big deal, but the 15 mph winds is certainly something to take notice of.

INJURIES

CHIEFS: Charcandrick West (concussion) ?, DE Dee Ford (hamstring) ?, WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) ?, DB Marcus Peters (hip) ?, DT Jaye Howard (hip) ?
BRONCOS: CB Kayvon Webster (abdomen) ?, CB Aqib Talib (lower back) ?

TRENDS

Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in last four coming of an ATS loss.
Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in last 11 road games.
Kansas City is 5-0 to the Under in last five following a loss.
Denver is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight home games.
Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against AFC West teams.
Denver is 6-1 to the Under in last seven against winning teams.

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate SuperBook posted their early Week 13 spreads on Tuesday and have Denver -4.5 at Jacksonville and Kansas City getting +3.5 at Atlanta.