NFL Week 13
Jets (6-5) @ Redskins (4-7) - Washington snapped 6-game skid last week in Seattle, passing for 306 yards, giving them 582 passing yards in last two games, but they’ve turned ball over 2+ times in each of last eight games (-11), which is horrible. Jets are 5-1 this season when they have 2+ takeaways, but they only have one in last three games. Jets are 5-0 when they score more than 24 points, a figure Skins allowed just twice this season (Panthers/Dallas), 1-1 when they score exactly 24, 0-4 when they score less than 24. Redskins won eight of nine series games, with four of last six in series decided by 3 or less points; only Jet win was 3-0 here in ’93. Redskins/49ers are only two NFL teams that haven’t allowed a TD on offense/special teams this season. Four of Jets’ last five opponents currently have losing records, so no excuse for their not making playoffs.
Titans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6) - Buffalo is 4-0 when it scores 31+ points, 1-5 when it doesn’t, bad stat for team that plays December home games in western NY. Bills missed chance to pull upset last week in Swamp and get back over .500, now they’ve lost four games in row, allowing average of 33.5 ppg. Titans are 5-0 when they score 23+, 1-5 when they don’t; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread as a dog, 2-3 SU on road, winning at Cleveland/Carolina. Tennessee won last three series games by 2-1-24 points, with average total of 57; they won two of last three visits here, after losing previous six. Three of last four series games were won by 3 or less points. AFC East home favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 6-11-1, 4-7-1 on foreign soil. Titans’ last five games all stayed under total.
Chiefs (4-7) @ Bears (7-4) - First home start for Hanie finds struggling Chiefs (one TD/last 41 drives, 7 turnovers/last 20) visiting Windy City having lost last four games by average score of 24-6, but former Bear Orton looms as quick sub for struggling journeyman Palko under center, which would help Chiefs dramatically, if Orton knows playbook. Bears had 5-game win streak snapped last week, as Hanie threw three picks, only second time this year Bears lost turnover battle. Chicago is 3-1 as home favorite, winning last three at soldier Field, 39-10/37-13/31-20. Home side won last four series games, with average total in last six, 32.0; Chiefs lost four of five visits here, but only one of losses was by more than a FG. Chiefs’ last six games stayed under total; Chicago’s last four went over.
Raiders (7-4) @ Dolphins (3-8) - First-place Oakland won/covered last three games, scored 24+ points in last four, as Palmer settled in as starting QB. Raiders are 4-1-1 as an underdog this year, 3-0-1 on road- they’re 4-1 SU on road, with only loss by 3 at Buffalo (led 21-3 at half). Miami had 3-game win streak snapped last week at Dallas; they’ve covered last five games, winning last two at home by combined score of 55-17, only two games they’ve been favored in this year. Last three Fish losses were all by 3 or less points. Dolphins won eight of last ten series games, including 33-17 romp in Oakland LY; Raiders lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses by 3 or less points. AFC West road underdogs are 4-6-1 in non-divisional games. Under is 9-0-1 in last ten Miami games.
Bengals (7-4) @ Steelers (8-3) - Pitt (-3) won first meeting 24-17 in Queen City three weeks ago, in game where Bengals scored only a FG on three drives that started in Steeler territory. Cincy lost three of last four visits here, losing by 14-17-16 points; this series has been swept last four years. Bengals are 4-2 on road, 4-0-1 as road dogs, losing by 2 at Denver, 7 at Baltimore- they haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points. Steelers won six of last seven games, are 2-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 24-21-4-8 points, with loss to Ravens. Home teams are 1-4-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year, with five of six games going over total. Five of last seven Bengal games went over; three of last four Steeler games stayed under. Average total in Bengals’ last four visits here is 32.8.
Ravens (8-3) @ Browns (4-7) - Baltimore won last six series games, with five wins by 10+ points, last four by combined score of 94-30; Ravens are 8-4 in town they used to call home, winning last three 37-27/16-0/20-10, but Ravens are just 2-3 on road, beating Rams (37-7)/Steelers (23-20), losing to Titans/Jags/Seattle, not an impressive resume. Cleveland’s last three games were decided by total of 8 points; in their last six games, Browns started just one drive in enemy territory, while opponents started 8 on Browns’ side of 50. Week 2 at Indy is only time this year Browns had better field position in a game, which is fatal for team with sketchy offense. Four of last five Cleveland home games stayed under total. Having extra three days to prepare after Thanksgiving game may give Ray Lewis time enough to heal and play here.
Falcons (7-4) @ Texans (8-3) - This was supposed to be Schaub vs his old team in potential Super Bowl preview, but Schaub is hurt and Texans are down to rookie #3 QB Yates, who played well last week before Kubiak pulled reins in while protecting lead in second half, since he had no other QB had Yates gotten hurt. Houston won/covered its last five games; they’re 4-1 as home favorite, with only loss to Raiders the week Al Davis died. Atlanta won five of last six games, with only loss to Saints in OT- they’ve also won last three away games. 10 of last 36 Houston drives started in enemy territory. Teams have only met twice, with home side winning both games. AFC South underdogs are 6-11-1 vs spread, 2-4 at home; NFC South favorites are 9-7-2, 3-3 on foreign soil. Last seven Atlanta games and six of last eight Texan tilts stayed under the total.
Panthers (3-8) @ Buccaneers (4-7) - Third week in row on road for Carolina, which is 3-0 if it allows 20 or less points, 0-8 when it doesn‘t; they’re 1-3 as road dogs this year, but covered only previous outdoor road game, at Chicago. Road team is 8-5 in last 13 series games; Panthers won six of last eight visits here, but were swept by Bucs LY for first time since ’02. Carolina lost six of its last eight games overall. Bucs lost five games in row, turning ball over 11 times in last three games, when they lost field position by 15-14-9 yards; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Home side is 5-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year, with five of the six staying under total. Five of last six Tampa bay games stayed under; four of last five Carolina road games went over. Fun game to watch; bad game to invest in.
Broncos (6-5) @ Vikings (2-9) - Fourth road game in five weeks for Tebow-led Denver, which is 5-1 since changing QB’s despite being outscored 60-30 in first half of those games. Broncos ran ball for average of 225.5 yards/game last six weeks, which takes ton of heat off their defense- they’re 0-5 this year when allowing more than 17 points. Vikings are 0-3 since their bye, allowing 32 ppg; they’re 1-4 at home, with only win vs Arizona. Home side lost four of last six series games, with four of last five decided by 4 or less points. Four of five Minnesota home games went over the total; last three Denver games stayed under. Viking coach Frazier showed no aptitude for game management last week, forgoing FG with 5:00 left when Minnesota was down 10. This is Denver’s first game on artificial turf this season.
Packers (11-0) @ Giants (6-5) - Big Blue lost last three games since beating Patriots, giving up average of 31 ppg, now unbeaten Pack comes to town with three extra days to prepare after Turkey Day win in Detroit. Green Bay is 4-2 as road favorite this year, winning by 7-10-11-6-7-12 points. Giants were riddled for 577 yards by machine-like Saints Monday; opponents converted 14 of last 23 3rd down plays against Giants, and started eight of last 34 drives in Jersey territory. Giants are 3-2 at home, losing by 11 to Seattle, by 7 to Eagles. Home team lost five of last six series games, with Pack winning last three visits here, 37-3/34-25/35-13. NFC East underdogs are 4-7 in non-divisional games, 0-2 as home dogs. NFC North favorites are 11-8, 4-2 on road. Four of last five Packer games went over the total.
Rams (2-9) @ 49ers (9-2) - Niners won five of last six series games, winning last three played here, 35-16/35-0/23-20ot; they’ve had three extra days to prepare after Turkey Day loss in Baltimore, now have to guard against complacency since they’ve already clinched division. Playing for first round bye is their motivation now. Rams are 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 12-31-27-6 points, with win at equally-awful Cleveland. 49ers allowed average of 12.3 ppg in last seven games, giving up only 8 TDs on last 77 drives; they’re 5-0 as home favorites, winning at Candlestick by 16-45-10-7-16 points. Rams haven’t averaged six yards per pass attempt since Week 5 at Lambeau, when they were getting crushed right off bat. Under is 6-2 in last eight St Louis games, 5-1 in last six 49er games.
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 13
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Once upon a time, a Colts-Patriots game was must-see TV. Now? Perhaps must-flee TV. Fortunately, there are a few other worthwhile matchups on the Week 13 NFL slate.
To the poolies cheat sheet we go:
Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)
Why Colts cover: Well, at 0-11 SU, they’re getting a ton of points. In this rivalry, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS last seven and 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.
Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady’s troops, who have cashed their last five against losing units, might be able to name their score. Indy has dropped seven straight pointspread decisions.
Total (48): Hard to peg without Manning in the equation. The under has hit four straight for Indy, but the over has cashed in 13 of the Colts’ last 16 on road. The Pats have the over on a 22-8 run overall and 11-4 at home.
Denver at Minnesota (-1)
Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow has helped the squad go 5-1 SU and ATS since taking over as the starter, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway. The Vikes are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams – believe it or not, the Tebows (er, Broncos) are now a winning team.
Why Vikings cover: If they have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) back in fold – which is iffy right now – it’ll certainly bolster their chances. Denver’s in ATS ruts of 7-22-1 against losing teams and 6-13 in December.
Total (37.5): Denver’s defense has held its last three foes to total of 36 points and all three games went way under the total. That said, the over is 5-1 in the Vikes’ last six at home dome.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Why Panthers cover: Strong late-season finishers at the sportsbook, going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 in December. The Bucs are lousy at home ATS at 7-20 in their last 27.
Why Buccaneers cover: Chalk has been the play in six of the last seven in this NFC South rivalry and Carolina’s 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.
Total (47.5): The under has hit in the Bucs’ last four NFC South tilts and is 6-2-2 in the Panthers’ last 10 division games.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Why Bengals cover: They gave the Steelers a tough battle three weeks ago before succumbing 24-17 at home, playing most of the game without stud rookie wideout A.J. Green, who is now back and healthy. Cincy hasn’t lost ATS in its last seven roadies (6-0-1), and in this AFC North rivalry, the visitor is on a 14-5-1 ATS stretch.
Why Steelers cover: The defending AFC champs are 8-2 SU and ATS last 10 against Cincinnati, winning and cashing the last three in a row.
Total (42): Total has played over in the Steelers’ last five division affairs, seven of Bengals’ last eight overall, and five of Cincy’s last six on highway.
N.Y. Jets (-3) at Washington
Why Jets cover: If you believe in patterns, I suppose the Jets are due. They lost three in a row ATS in games 3-5, then won three in a row ATS in games 6-8, and now they’ve lost three in a row ATS again in games 9-11. New York is also 10-4 ATS in last 14 against losing teams.
Why Redskins cover: No positive ATS trends to speak off, but coming off a road win and cover that halted a six-game SU dive. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six on road and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in December.
Total (38): Lots of over trends for Gang Green, including 21-8 overall and 18-7-1 on road, but the ‘Skins are on several under surges, including 8-1 against winning teams.
Kansas City at Chicago (-7.5)
Why Chiefs cover: Tyler Palko likely won’t be in lineup, giving way to recently acquired QB Kyle Orton, so that should help. K.C. nearly notched upset of Pittsburgh last week in 13-9 home loss as hefty 10.5-point underdog. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when getting points.
Why Bears cover: They’re still minus QB Jay Cutler for at least a few more weeks, but Caleb Hanie had a serviceable second half in the loss to the Raiders last week and should show improvement with more reps, along with playing at home. As favorites, Lovie Smith’s troops are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 at Soldier Field.
Total (37.5): A low number here, with bookmakers apparently leaning to the Chiefs’ stream of under trends to outweigh the Bears’ plethora of over streaks. Total has gone low in Kansas City’s last six games. The over has hit in Chicago’s last four games overall and last four in Windy City.
Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)
Why Titans cover: Buffalo’s dropped four straight (1-3 ATS), while the Titans have covered three in a row and four of five. And hey, there’s been a Chris Johnson sighting somewhere other than on the side of a milk carton. The Tennessee RB went off for 190 yards on just 23 carries (8.1 ypc) in last week’s win over Tampa Bay.
Why Bills cover: Absolutely, completely desperate. A loss pretty much equals no playoffs, for team that started season 4-1 and was still 5-2 through seven games. Buffalo’s 9-3 ATS in its last dozen as a favorite of three or fewer points.
Total (43): The under is on streaks of 5-0 for Tennessee, 8-1 for Buffalo in December and 7-3 for Bills at home. That said, the over is 9-2-1 in the Bills’ last dozen overall, including three in a row.
Atlanta (-1.5) at Houston
Why Falcons cover: The Texans are down to third-string QB, rookie T.J. Yates, after season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. Atlanta can load up against Houston’s vaunted running game, knowing the Texans’ passing game should struggle. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog.
Why Texans cover: They’ve been overcoming key injuries all season, to stud RB Arian Foster early on, to star WR Andre Johnson for a lengthy midseason stretch, and to LB Mario Williams, who was lost for the season Oct. 9. Despite all those setbacks, they’re atop AFC at 8-3 SU and are tied for second in the conference at 7-3-1 ATS.
Total (38.5): Houston will hope to milk the clock with Foster-led running game (151.7 ypg, third in league) to take pressure off Yates. Atlanta hasn’t gone over in two months, with six straight unders.
Oakland at Miami (-3)
Why Raiders cover: The surprise leaders of the AFC West at 7-4 SU are even better at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS this year while winning and cashing the last three in a row. They’ve also cashed six straight on highway.
Why Dolphins cover: Don’t know where these guys were through much of the season, but they are on fire now, having cashed five in a row while winning three of the last four SU.
Total (43): If Miami is involved, often the under is, too. The Dolphins have the under on runs of 15-5-1 overall, 7-0 coming off SU loss, and 6-0-1 within AFC.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
Why Ravens cover: They’ve been inconsistent against the spread, but they’ve been consistent in this AFC North rivalry, covering five of last six (6-0 SU). The Browns are on pointspread purges of 3-10-2 overall, 1-7-2 at home, and 1-5 in division play.
Why Browns cover: Cleveland’s certainly a few pegs below Baltimore, but the Ravens have bad habit of playing down to level of competition. They lost outright at Jacksonville and at Seattle, and narrowly beat Arizona while failing to cash as 12-point home chalk.
Total (38): The over has hit in Baltimore’s last four division games and five of its last six roadies. The total has played over in six of Cleveland’s last eight division contests.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-13)
Why Rams cover: Not easy to justify St. Louis covering. The Rams have almost no positive pointspread trends to speak of, but 13 points is a lot to get against a division rival and St. Louis cashed in both meetings with the Niners last year.
Why 49ers cover: Let’s put this in simplest possible terms: The Niners lead the league with a 9-1-1 ATS record, while Rams are tied for dead last at 2-9 ATS. That about covers it, don’t you think?
Total (37.5): St. Louis can’t score, averaging a meager 12.7 ppg which ranks 31st in league. So even though this is a rather low total, the under is certainly in play. Plus, the under has cashed in five of six for San Fran.
Green Bay (-7) at N.Y. Giants
Why Packers cover: That’s just what they do. The defending Super Bowl champs have won 17 consecutive games and have gone 13-4 against the line in that stretch. Aaron Rodgers & Co have been strong on road too, covering eight of last 10. The Giants have lost three in a row SU and are in a 1-5-1 ATS tailspin.
Why Giants cover: Desperate times call for desperate measures. If the Giants want to remain a playoff contender, they can’t even afford a loss. This amounts to a season-saving game for New York.
Total (52): Nobody puts up more points than the Pack, averaging 34.7 ppg, and the Giants – on a handful of over streaks – just allowed the Saints to hang a 49-spot on them in a blowout road loss. But with Green Bay as a visitor, the under has hit 12 of the last 17 overall, and nine of last 12 with the Packers laying points.
Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona
Why Cowboys cover: They haven’t cashed often lately (1-4 ATS last four), but they’re building up steam with four consecutive SU victories. Dallas will also be looking for some payback, having lost at home to Arizona on a last-second field goal last Christmas. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Redbirds.
Why Cardinals cover: The Cards have won and covered three of four, all behind backup QB John Skelton and they could have starter Kevin Kolb back this week from foot/toe injuries. The Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this rivalry, and the Cowboys are in a 3-12-1 ATS funk when laying points.
Total (45.5): The over has hit in four of the last five at home for the Cards. Dallas has the over on an 11-4 run as a chalk and 8-3 as a visitor.
Detroit at New Orleans (-9)
Why Lions cover: Detroit needs a win to stay in the NFC playoff chase and this is a lot of points even without DT Ndamukong Suh (two-game suspension). The Lions have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven roadies. The last time the Saints blew a team out, a 62-7 home win over Colts on Oct. 23, they came back a week later and lost outright to subpar St. Louis.
Why Saints cover: Well, that offense is pretty impressive, hanging 49 points on Giants last week to push its season average to 32.9 ppg, second only to Green Bay’s 34.7. Drew Brees & Co have cashed all five this season at home, with four of those wins by double digits.
Total (54): We’ve got the second and fourth best scoring teams in the league, with Detroit putting up 28.7 ppg, and the Lions without arguably their best defensive player. That looks like a recipe for the over. The Lions have the over on a 16-7-1 run overall, 18-7-1 on the highway, and 6-0-1 with Lions set as a road pup.
San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville
Why Chargers cover: Too much talent for this team to be riding a six-game SU and ATS losing streak and eventually that talent should win out. This week could be the spot, as Jacksonville is out of sorts after firing coach Jack Del Rio on Tuesday. The Bolts are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 in December while the Jags are on ATS downslides of 4-9-1 overall and 2-8-1 as a pup. Plus, the Jags can’t score, averaging a league-worst 12.5 ppg behind rookie QB Blaine Gabbert.
Why Jaguars cover: Well, there’s that 0-6 SU and ATS burden San Diego is carrying. The Bolts are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road.
Total (38.5): We’re talking about Jacksonville here, so the under has got to be considered. The under has cashed in all but one of the Jags’ games this season, and they are on under runs of 6-0 on Monday night, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 at home.
Line Moves - Week 13
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Remember the Detroit Pistons from the late 80's and New York Knicks from the early 90's and the type of basketball they played? It was an ugly, slow-down style of ball that frustrated all opponents, but it also proved to be very successful. Their physical style of play made opponents work hard, taking them out of their own game plan. They forced teams to being something they weren't and played below their abilities.
Looking at NBA teams from two decades ago is all I have as a comparison to what we're seeing right now with the Denver Broncos led by Tim Tebow. The Broncos' offensive line has been pounding opposing team's defenses for three quarters and then when the fourth rolls around, they're beaten and worn out and Tebow takes advantage.
We've seen undersized college football teams adopt wishbone style of offenses as a gimmick, but not on the pro level, or least not with any success.
How the Broncos (6-5) come into Sunday's game at Minnesota (2-9) having won and covered five of their last six games behind their second-year quarterback is one of the biggest mysteries in the league. Over that same process, a very mediocre defense prior to Tebow starting has suddenly had their strengths accentuated with a fierce pass-rush and also become adept at stopping the run. They're now forcing teams into playing their game -- making it a brawl at the line of scrimmage -- just like the Pistons and Knicks did in the paint.
This style of play almost makes it impossible to bet the OVER in any game the Broncos are playing. The remedy is quite simple thus far: if Tebow doesn't turn the ball over, they will win and go UNDER the total 80% of the time (4 of 5 games). In all five of the Tebow-led Broncos wins, the Broncos have been tied or down in the fourth quarter.
Most Las Vegas sports books have the Vikings as 1½-point favorites this week after opening the game a pick with the total steady at 37½. Adrian Peterson is listed as doubtful with Toby Gerhart expected to get most of the carries in the running game.
This should be a nice FSU-Florida reunion between with Christian Ponder taking snaps for the Vikings, a quarterback drafted higher than Tebow last year. For whatever it's worth, Tebow beat Ponder and the Seminoles 45-15 in their only head-to-head meeting in 2008.
Quarterbacks continue to be the theme in the league again this week beginning with the Bears (7-4) and Caleb Hanie welcoming the Chiefs (4-7) and Tyler Palko, or maybe even Kyle Orton. The Bears opened as 8½-point favorites, but have been bet down to -7½ after news came that Orton would split snaps with Palko running the first-string offense in Wednesday's practice.
If looking to bet the Chiefs, get it as soon as possible before the hook is gone on a game that could even drop below -7 when -- or if -- Orton is announced as the starter. Orton's only got a week and a half of practice under his belt, but he's an experienced NFL quarterback who doesn't make many mistakes. Seven turnovers by Palko has led to the Chiefs to not scoring an offensive touchdown in their last three games.
The Redskins (4-7) halted their six-game losing streak last week led by Rex Grossman and welcome the Jets (6-5) on Sunday. The Jets opened as 3½-point favorites and have been bet against down to -3 (EV) with the game and value of the number looking like it will be -2½ soon. If believing that the Redskins 'momentum' will carry over into this week, bet them now while the number is still available.
The Bengals (7-4) are 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season and look for revenge this week at Pittsburgh (8-3), who beat the Bengals in Week 10, 24-17. The Bengals hung with the Steelers in that game through three-quarters and it was also one of only three games this season the Bengals stayed UNDER the total. The Steelers opened -7 (-115) at the Wynn and are now -7 (EV) with the total staying steady at 42.
The Falcons (7-4) come into Houston (8-3) having won five of their last six games and opened as 1-point favorites. The Texans have won five in a row, but now must face the challenge of continuing to win with rookie T.J. Yates at quarterback. The Falcons have been bet up to -2½ since Monday. Yates has a big arm to go along with the best offensive line and running back in the game, but a QB making his first NFL start against a solid team like Atlanta won't find many takers. This game is currently has the most lopsided one-way action as far as ticket counts go.
Dallas has gone 3-13 ATS the last two seasons as favorites and were opened at the Wynn minus-6½ road favorites at Arizona. The Cowboys (7-4) have been on a roll winning their last four games to take over first place in the NFC East. The Cardinals (4-7) have won three of their last four games with John Skelton starting, but Kevin Kolb -- the starter who only managed one win in seven games -- is expected to start Sunday. Arizona money has come in dropping the line down to -4½.
For the first time since the Super-Patriots of 2007, we see a team favored by 20 or more points in an NFL game. The Patriots (8-3) opened -21 against the Dan Orlovsky-led Colts (0-11) and it's been bet down to -20. Who can pass up on 3 touchdowns, right? Considering that the Patriots have won and covered their last three games by an average margin of 24 points against much better teams, taking the +21 doesn't seem like much of a bargain.
With five games left on the schedule, Cantor Gaming sports books have offered a prop on whether the Colts will go winless this season. The NO is -220 and YES is +190. We can assume the Patriots will win this week, then the Colts travel to Baltimore, play Tennessee and Houston at home and close out at Jacksonville. The only game that a case could be made for the Colts winning might be against the Jaguars.
NBC saw the writing on the wall with the Colts this week and used the flex-date opportunity afforded them to get a more competitive game for their Sunday night feature, which gives us an intriguing Lions-Saints game from New Orleans. The Saints (8-3) are 5-0 ATS at home while the Lions (7-4) have been a steady 3-1-1 ATS on the road. Detroit has had some extra time to rest following their Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay while the Saints are on a short week. The Saints opened -8 ½ and have been bet up to -9.
Cantor Gaming also has a prop on the Packers going undefeated with NO -180 and the YES +150. Lucky's sports books has the NO -220 with an interesting .50 cent split on the NO at +170. The Packers (11-0) are 7-point road favorites at the Giants (6-5) this week, a game that figures to be their toughest of the next five to close out the year. Following New York, the Packers have the Raiders at home, travel to Kansas City, and then get the Bears and Lions at home.
While it's hard to predict what Packers coach Mike McCarthy will do in Week 16 or 17 should the Packers have everything locked up, it would seem logical that they would want to go for something historically special after already having won a Super Bowl last year. If playing around with this prop, I'd lay the NO at -180 and take some insurance against it this week with the Giants on the money-line at +290.
Jacksonville somehow got on the Monday night schedule twice this year, but the first time wasn't that awful as we saw the Jags upset the Ravens 12-7. The Chargers (4-7) are on a six-game losing streak and opened as 3-point favorites at Jacksonville (4-7). The game has been bet down to -2½.
Tip Sheet - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 13 Sunday NFL card involves all but one game (Panthers/Buccaneers) that has some sort of playoff implication. Nine contests kick off at 1:00 PM EST, as we'll take a look at four of these matchups, including an interconference affair with plenty of storylines in the Lone Star State.
Falcons (-3, 37½) at Texans
Atlanta begins Sunday's action one game behind New Orleans in the NFC South as the Falcons (7-4) head down to Houston to take on a banged-up Texans squad. In spite of beating the Jaguars last Sunday, the Texans (8-3) lost backup quarterback Matt Leinart to a clavicle injury. Gary Kubiak now turns to T.J. Yates as his signal-caller, as the former North Carolina Tar Heel looks to extend Houston's two-game lead over Tennessee in the AFC South.
The Texans are riding a five-game winning streak, even though the last four victories came against teams that are below .500. The Falcons are red-hot as well with wins in five of the previous six contests, while the only defeat came in overtime to the Saints. Atlanta is streaking in the 'under' department by cashing the 'under' in seven straight contests, as the Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less.
The home team has won each of the two previous meetings in this series, as the Falcons beat former teammate Matt Schaub and the Texans at the Georgia Dome, 26-16 as 2½-point underdogs at 2007.
Titans at Bills (-1½, 43)
This is basically an elimination game inside the AFC Wild Card race as Tennessee (6-5) visits Buffalo (5-6). Many people are ready to close the book on the Bills, who have dropped four consecutive games, including a 28-24 loss to the Jets last Sunday (New York clinches head-to-head tiebreaker). The Titans are still hanging around in both the Wild Card and AFC South races, while managing a late rally against the underachieving Buccaneers, 23-17.
Tennessee has alternated wins and losses in each of its last six games, while cashing the 'under' in each of the previous five contests. Buffalo's defense has been lit up during this losing streak, allowing an average of 33.5 points per game. The Bills are one of the top 'over' teams in the league at 8-2-1, even though both 'unders' have come at home. The Titans own a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 away contests, while going 2-5 ATS the previous seven road games against non-divisional opponents.
Bengals at Steelers (-6½, 42½)
The AFC North race is the best in football right now with three teams within one game of first place. Cincinnati (7-4) battles Pittsburgh (8-3) for the second time in the last four weeks, as the Steelers held off the Bengals in the first meeting, 24-17 as 3½-point road favorites. The Bengals look to improve on a 4-1-1 ATS mark as an underdog, while trying to avoid the dreaded sweep against their division rivals.
Cincinnati is a surprising 9-2 to the 'over' this season, even though the Bengals' defense is ranked fifth overall in the league. The last meeting against the Steelers went 'over' the closing total of 40½, even though the final quarter didn't see one point scored. The Bengals hung with the Steelers by tying the game at 17-17 in the third quarter, but Cincinnati's offense managed just 279 yards and 14 first downs.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Heinz Field this season, while the Steelers are 8-2 ATS since the start of 2010 coming off a non-cover. Cincinnati has compiled an impressive 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, but the Bengals are just 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine games against division rivals.
Jets (-3, 38½) at Redskins
New York escaped late against Buffalo last Sunday to creep back above .500 as the Jets (6-5) head to the Nation's Capital to tangle with the Redskins (4-7). Washington rallied past Seattle with 16 fourth-quarter points in a 23-17 triumph as three-point underdogs, ending a six-game losing streak. The Redskins can somewhat salvage their season by avoiding another last-place finish, as a Washington win would put it one game ahead of Philadelphia at the bottom of the NFC East.
The Jets have proven over the last two postseasons that they can win on the road (4-2), but Rex Ryan's club is just 1-4 this season away from Met Life Stadium. New York is a dreadful 2-5 ATS as a favorite, including a 17-13 loss at Denver as six-point 'chalk' in its last away game. The Redskins have covered consecutive games after five straight ATS losses, while trying to improve on a 3-5-1 ATS record in the last nine home contests.
Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 12 Recap
The ‘under’ express notched another winning week with a 9-7 record, thanks to three low-scoring affairs on Thanksgiving Day. Most of the remaining outcomes were clear-cut, with exception to the Cardinals-Rams and Redskins-Seahawks matchups. Those games saw 30 and 26 points posted in their second-halves respectively, and both went ‘over’ the number. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 89-81-5 (52%).
Mid-Week Alert
Finally, a game being played on Thursday went ‘over’ the number. Seattle ripped Philadelphia 31-14 this week and the combined 45 points slid above the closing number of 43½, thanks to a late pick-six touchdown from the Seahawks. If you include the Week 1 shootout between New Orleans and Green Bay, the ‘under’ is 5-2 in games played on Thursday this season. Next week, Cleveland and Pittsburgh will go head-to-head and that total will likely be in the thirties.
Off the Bye
No more teams will be playing off the BYE until the playoffs occur. We mention that because you might want to look at low-scoring affairs in the Divisional Round of the postseason. This season, the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.
System Plays
The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up again this Sunday. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 68% (26-12-2) over the last seven seasons, and its gone 3-2 (60%) this season, thanks to a pair of winning ‘over’ tickets last weekend.
Two more matchups left, one of them this Sunday, which are listed below:
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore
Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Week 12 – Arizona 23 at St. Louis 20 (OVER 40)
Week 12 - Buffalo 24 at N.Y. Jets 28 (OVER 42.5)
Head-to-Head
Here’s a quick look at some trends for the four divisional games on tap this week:
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals (8-3) and Steelers (6-5) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season. Cincy has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the road. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 24-17 on Oct. 13 and the combined 41 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 40 ½. This week’s number is hovering between 42 and 43 points. The last three regular seasons has watched the total go 1-1 in this series, so if that stays true then the ‘under’ will cash on Sunday.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: This total was 48 before the status of Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman (shoulder) was released. These teams haven’t seen a number this high in years. The total is 4-4 in the last eight games.
Baltimore at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings. Cleveland hasn’t scored more than 17 points during this stretch. The Browns were on a 5-0-1 ‘under’ run before last week’s outcome against Cincinnati (20-23) went ‘over.’
St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 on the road, while the 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home. The total is hovering between 37 and 38 points. The two regular season meetings last year went ‘over’ but only 43 and 42 points were posted in those games.
Under the Lights
Gamblers watched the Steelers and Chiefs slug it out on SNF before watching the Giants and Saints play in a shootout on MNF. The total went 1-1 and the ‘over’ now stands at 15-10-1 (60%) in primetime battles this season. This week’s pair will feature two non-divisional games, which are tougher to gauge since the sample size isn’t that great. Let’s take a closer look.
Detroit at New Orleans: This is the highest total on the board and deservingly so. The Saints gave us a taste of what they can do at home last week when they posted 49 against the Giants. We also got to see that New Orleans’ defense (22.9 PPG) isn’t that great either. Detroit’s offense (29 PPG) has been better on the road, which has translated into a 5-0 record to the ‘over.’ The loss of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (suspension) certainly won’t help the Lions slow down Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Speaking of Brees, the last two times (2009, 2008) he faced the Lions, he put up 45 and 42 points. The team total on New Orleans is listed at 31 points this week, 22 ½ points for Detroit. Make a note that we’ve seen 17 totals listed at 50 points or higher this season and the ‘over’ has gone 9-8 in those affairs.
San Diego at Jacksonville: While the SNF affair is expected to be a shootout, this week’s Monday Night Football matchup is ugly. The Jaguars have watched the ‘under’ 10-1 this season, largely due to an inept offense that is averaging a league worst 12.5 PPG. San Diego hasn’t been much better lately, putting up 17, 20 and 13 points the last three weeks. The Chargers’ offensive line has been decimated by injuries and you can see it in the attack. This is one of those totals that if you bet it and win, you better not pat yourself on the back. And if you lose, you’re a jackass for betting it.
Fearless Predictions
While I understand that you’re only as good as your last bet, it’s safe to say that we’re playing with confidence lately. We got a little luck with the Texans-Jaguars ‘under’ last Sunday but wins are wins and we’re happy to say we pulled off the sweep (4-0, +400) last week. On the season, we’re up $860 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Dallas-Arizona 45.5
Best Under: Cincinnati-Pittsburgh 43
Best Team Total: Under Kansas City 15.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36.5 Dallas-Arizona
Over 37.5 Carolina-Tampa Bay
Under 61 Green Bay-N.Y. Giants