NFL Betting News and Notes Week 13

Betting Recap - Week 12
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 12 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-2
Against the Spread 7-7-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-7-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Buccaneers (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Seahawks, 14-5
Chiefs (+3.5, ML +170) at Broncos, 30-27 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover

Steelers (-8 ) at Colts, 28-7
Saints (-7.5) vs. Rams, 49-21
Giants (-6.5) at Browns, 27-13

Giant Step Forward

The New York Giants picked up a 27-13 road win against the winless Cleveland Browns, earning another road cover. The Giants have been money lately, covering five of thier past six games. They also improved to 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. They'll keep it on the road in Week 13 when they meet the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. The Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division this season.

Jets Overhead

The New York Jets suffered a demoralizing loss against the New England Patriots, squandering a fourth quarter lead with a Patriots score at 1:56 to go in regulation. The Jets dropped to 2-9 SU in their past 11 meetings with the Patriots, although they were able to to move to 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven meetings and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. The two AFC East Division rivals will meet again in Week 16 in Foxboro on Christmas Eve.

Total Recall

The 'over' edged the 'under' 8-7 in Thursday and Sunday action with one game remaining on the schedule Monday night between the Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles at 'The Link' in Philly. In six AFC games the 'under' went 4-2, while in five NFC games the 'over' is 3-2 with one pending. In AFC vs. NFC games the 'over' ended up 3-1.

It was a mixed bag on the totals, as four of the top six totals ended up going 'over'. The highest total on the board, Thursday's Washington-Dallas (53) game, ended up going over with 1:53 to go in regulation. The other 50-plus total, Pittsburgh-Indianapolis (50), ended up going 'under' and it was never threatened, as Colts QB Scott Tolzien helped his team score just seven points.

If you've been following Chris David's 'Total Talk' this season, you'll know that Pacific Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the 'over' cash frequently. In Week 12 the trend continued, as two of the three games hit the 'over'. Seattle-Tampa Bay (46) was the lone exception, as there were just five total points scored over the final three quarters. San Francisco-Miami (44.5) and Arizona-Atlanta (49) easily cashed the 'over'.

The lowest total on the board, Kansas City-Denver (40) ended up hitting the 'over'. It didn't look that way, as the teams were scoreless in the first quarter, and there was just a total of nine points on the board at halftime with zero offensive points. However, the two teams heated up dramatically in the second half, including 22 fourth-quarter points, and nine points in the overtime period.

The 'over/under' went 1-1 in two primetime games with one to go Monday between the Packers and Eagles (47.5). Officially, the 'over' is 18-18 (50.0%) through 36 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Cardinals WR John Brown (hamstring) was forced out of Sunday's game in Atlanta due to a hamstring injury and he was unable to return.

Dolphins WR DeVante Parker (back) left Sunday's win against the Niners due to a back injury. He continues to have difficulty staying on the field for huge periods of time.

49ers WR Quinton Patton (concussion) left Sunday's game at Miami and was unable to return.

Jaguars WR Allen Hurns (hamstring) injured his hamstring stretching for the pylon on a touchdown in Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return.

Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (back) had his back tighten up early in the rivalry at against the Jets, and he was unable to return. It sounds as if the injury is not believed to be significant, but when Gronk isn't on the field the offensive is missing a huge bullet in the chamber.

Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) dislocated the pinkie on his right hand in Sunday's win against the Panthers. He missed a series, but was able to return and finish the game with a glove protecting his injury.

Looking Ahead

The West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone trend is in play when the Rams visit the Patriots in Foxboro. The trend will be put to the test, as the 'under' has hit in four of the past five games, while the 'over' is 3-2 in five games at home for New England, including each of the past two.

The Dallas Cowboys travel to Minnesota for Thursday's game. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in five road games this season, while the Vikings are just 1-5 SU/ATS in their past six games overall.

The Raiders host the Bills in Week 13. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four games against a team with a winning record for Oakland, although the Raiders are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games at home. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven overall for the Bills, and 4-1 in their past five on the road against teams with a winning home record. For Oakland, the 'over' is 18-6-2 in the past 26 in the Black Hole, and 5-1 in their past six against AFC teams with a 4-1 over mark in the past five against winning teams.

The Panthers and Seahawks meet in Seattle, and the 'over' is 5-0 in the past five meetings in the Pacific Northwest. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five road games for Carolina, and 12-3 in their past 15 against teams with a winning record.

Opening Line Report - Week 13
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

In addition to the Cowboys, the Giants (six in a row), Dolphins (six in a row) and Raiders (five in a row) have put together nice winning streaks of their own. None of these three teams, however, is commanding an abundance of respect in Las Vegas, evidenced by the early lines for next week’s slate of games.

Here are all the opening Week 13 point spreads, along with insight from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 1

Dallas Cowboys (-3, -120) at Minnesota Vikings

A respected bettor at the Westgate laid Dallas -3, prompting a move to -3.5, before buy-back on the dog resulted in an adjustment to Dallas -3.5 (even). William Hill and the Wynn were both dealing Dallas -3 (-120) on Sunday night, but -3 flat was available at CG Technology.

While this feels like a spot for the Cowboys’ 10-game win streak to end, the question is whether the Vikings have what it takes to make that happen.

“It’s a big game for Minnesota and Dallas is kind of due for a loss, but I don’t know if Minnesota is able to (play well enough),” Salmons said. “Their offense is so bad.”

Sunday, Dec. 4

Denver Broncos (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Westgate opened Denver -5 with a quick move to -4.5, despite Jacksonville’s 2-9 straight-up record and six-game losing streak.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Atlanta opened -4 at both CG and the Westgate on Sunday, but the Westgate moved to -3.5 in early wagering.

The Falcons are getting plenty of respect among Vegas bookmakers.

“That Atlanta team has so much speed on offense it’s scary,” said Salmons “... They can outscore anyone. Their offense is so good, it makes their defense have to play only one way, against the pass, because they get a lead and they don’t really have to worry about the other team running the ball.”

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

The Westgate hung Green Bay -3.5 but was up to -5 about 35 minutes after betting opened. Green Bay was available at -4 and -4.5 at other shops.

The road has not been kind to the Texans, who are 1-4 SU and ATS away from Houston this season, the lone win coming at Jacksonville.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Last week in this space, William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich told us Cincy would be a bet-against team the rest of the season. The strategy paid off for Ravens bettors Sunday, and some gamblers are going back to the well next week. The Westgate took a bet on Philly -1 and moved to -2.5 in one flash, and CG moved from a pick ‘em to Philly -1. Still, 1.5 was the most popular number in Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

While this game ranged from New Orleans -4 (Wynn) to -6 (Westgate) on Sunday night, 4.5 was the number on more Vegas boards.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

The 3s posted at the Westgate and William Hill were changed to 2.5s in early wagering, although CG was dealing Chicago -3 and Coasts -3 (even).

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5)

CG opened New England -14 and moved to -13.5, while the Westgate opened -13.5 with an early move to -13.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Respected money showed up on the favorite at the Westgate’s opening number of Baltimore -3.5 (even), as doubts persist about the Dolphins, even though they’ve won six games in a row.

“I don’t really think much of Miami,” Salmons said. “They’re winning games with mirrors. If they were to lose three or four in a row, it wouldn’t surprise you. You can only win so many close games”

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

While this line indicates respect for the 6-5 Bills, Salmons is among the Vegas types not ready to buy the Raiders, despite their stellar 9-2 record.

“All the close games they win,” Salmons said. “Teams have years like that and then everyone will say, ‘oh, they know how to win the close games,’ and then the next year, the complete opposite will happen and they lose every close game – like Carolina this year – and they go from 11-5 or 12-4 to 5-11, and that’s just how it is.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)

This line spanned from San Diego -3.5 at the Wynn to the opener of -5.5 at the Westgate. While the Westgate moved down the ladder to -4.5, the Wynn stayed put at a field goal plus the hook.

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Sharp money liked Washington +2.5 at the Westgate, which moved momentarily to 1.5, as the wheels continue to fall off in Arizona. CG opened Arizona -3 (even) and moved opposite the market to -3 flat.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

A respected player at the Westgate laid -6 with Pittsburgh, prompting a move to -6.5, before the book corrected back to -6. Other shops were dealing -5.5.

Salmons explained his thinking for making the middling Steelers this big a favorite over the surging Giants.

“It’s a late game, so we’re probably going to need the Giants,” he said. “When Pittsburgh’s favored, they get a huge following. The public loves Pittsburgh. Teams like that, you’re always going to shade up, it’s just automatic. You get such one-way betting on teams like this. …

“When these teams cover we lose – that’s how our business runs – so we try to make it as high as possible, and if we go too high, the wiseguys will take it back.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Similar to Pittsburgh, Seattle is a team the public will be on in a big way next week, Salmons anticipates. “It’s a Sunday night game so that means all the liability will be on Seattle. Every parlay and every ticket will be on Seattle.”

Monday, Dec. 5

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at New York Jets

The Westgate opened 2.5 but was bet to 1.

The number was set with the assumption that Andrew Luck will be back for Indy. Should Luck not be able to return from concussion protocol, the line would be about Jets -3, Salmons estimates.

NFL Week 13

Broncos (7-4) @ Jaguars (2-9) — Denver is 3-4 in last seven games after 4-0 start; they’re 3-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite. Broncos are +6 in turnovers in their wins, -3 in losses. Jax lost its last six games (2-4 vs spread); they’re 0-4 at home- they were favored in last two home games. Jacksonville is -13 in turnovers in its last seven games, with only two takeaways- they have only seven TA’s for whole season. Broncos are 20-39 on 3rd down the last two games, but they lost tough OT game to Chiefs last week, a pivotal game. Jaguars won three of last four games with Denver; teams last met in ’13. Broncos lost three of last four visits here, with last win in ’05. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South underdogs are 7-11, 2-5 at home.

Chiefs (8-3) @ Falcons (7-4) — KC won six of its last seven games, is 4-2 on road this year, 2-2 as a road underdog. Chiefs’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points- they converted 20 of last 36 3rd down plays. Atlanta is 3-2 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorite, with losses to Bucs/Chargers- only nine of their 67 plays vs Arizona LW came on third down, thats how well they moved ball. Chiefs are in Denver/Oakland sandwich; they host Raiders next Thursday. Falcons won 38-14/40-24 in last two series games; teams split last four meetings played here. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread this season; NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 6-1 in last seven Chief games, 2-9 in Atlanta games this year.

Texans (6-5) @ Packers (5-6) — Houston is 3-0 in division games, 3-5 outside division; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7 points, with win at Jacksonville. Texans are -10 in turnovers in their losses, +1 in wins. Short week for Pack after they snapped 4-game skid with Monday win in Philly; Green Bay is 3-2 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 7-7-16 points. Home side lost all three series games; Texans won 24-21 in only visit here, in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-11 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-3 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in last five Green Bay games. December on frozen tundra can be dicey for a dome team from Texas- Osweiler is from Montana, but played in college at Arizona State.

Eagles (5-6) @ Bengals (3-7-1) — This is two sliding teams who desperately need a win. Philly lost six of last eight games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last five road games, are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11 points- this is short week for them after Monday loss to Packers. Bengals are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 1-4-5 points; they’re 2-2 at home, and were favored in all four. Since ’08, Cincy is 14-6-1 vs spread as a home underdog (4-0 since ’13). Cincy is 8-3-1 in this series, 2-0-1 in last three meetings; Eagles are 0-3-1 here, with a 13-all tie in last visit, 8 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 0-4 at home. Bengals are 1-5-1 in last seven games, with only win against the Browns.

Lions (7-4) @ Saints (5-6) — Detroit has trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter; all 11 games were decided by 7 or less points. Lions are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with wins at Indy/Minnesota. Detroit has only 7 offensive TD’s in last five games; they had 16 in first six games. Saints won three of last four home games, are 1-3 as home favorites this year; they outscored opponent in second half of last six games (38-3 in last two games). Lions beat New Orleans 24-23/35-27 in last two meetings; Detroit is 3-9 on Bourbon Street, but won here by 8 LY. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 5-6 on road NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 5-0 in last five Detroit games, 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.

49ers (1-10) @ Bears (2-9) — Niners lost last ten games (2-8 vs spread); they’re 0-5 on road, 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7 points- they allowed 30+ points in six of last seven games. Chicago is 0-3 since its bye, losing by 26-6-6 points; they’re 2-3 at home, 0-2 as home favorite, beating Lions/Vikings. Barkley was 28-54/316 in his first NFL start, 27-21 loss to Titans LW. Bears are -6 in turnovers last three games; they have one takeaway in last four games. 49ers won three of last four series games, winning 26-20 in OT here LY, their first win in last five visits to Soldier Field. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games, 1-3-1 in Chicago home games.

Rams (4-7) @ Patriots (9-2) — LA got crushed in Superdome LW, has now lost six of last seven games- they appeared to quit late in game vs Saints. Rams are 3-3 in true road games, 4-1 as road underdog, with losses by 28-3-28 points in true road games. New England is 6-1 since Brady is back; they’re 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-27-18 points. Patriots won last four series games, winning last meeting 45-7 in London in ’12. Rams won three of last four visits here. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last five games, 6-3 in last nine Patriot games. Cal native Goff playing in Foxboro in December could be dicey; check the weather forecast.

Dolphins (7-4) @ Ravens (6-5) — Miami won/covered its last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, winning last two away games, at Chargers/Rams- they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Baltimore is 3-1 since its bye, allowing 12.8 pts/game in last four home games. Ravens are 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorite- they lost at home to Raiders/Redskins. Ravens won five of last six series games; Dolphins lost 30-23/26-10 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 4-5 at home. Under is 3-2 in Miami games, 5-0 in last five Baltimore games. Miami is tied with Denver for second Wild Card spot; Ravens are tied with Steelers atop NFC North.

Bills (6-5) @ Raiders (9-2) — Buffalo won the two games since its bye by 4-7 points; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 6-3-6 points- they won in Foxboro when Brady was out. Bills have only two giveaways, two takeaways in last five games. Oakland won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorites- they play Chiefs on Thursday better not look past this game. Raiders won five of last seven series games; Bills lost last six visits to Oakland- their last win here was in 1966 (they beat Raiders in LA in ’91). AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Over is 9-2 in Oakland games, 8-3 in Buffalo games.

Buccaneers (6-5) @ Chargers (5-6) — Tampa Bay won/covered last three games, allowing 10.7 pts/game; they allowed only three offensive TD’s on last 31 drives. Bucs are 4-1 on road, with only loss in Week 2 at Arizona- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. San Diego won four of last six games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, losing to Saints/Dolphins. Chargers are 8-2 in last ten series games; they split last four. Average total in last three series games is 59.3. Buccaneers lost three of four visits here, with last win in ’96. Tampa Bay San Diego NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Under is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games, 8-3 in Charger games this season.

Redskins (6-4-1) @ Cardinals (4-6-1) — Washington is 6-2-1 in its last nine games; they’re 2-2 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses by 3 at Detroit, 5 at Dallas. Redskins are 47-91 on 3rd down in their last six games. Arizona lost three of last four games, is 3-2-1 at home, with losses to Pats/Rams- they’re 2-4 as home favorites, have turned ball over nine times in last four games (-5). Redskins won eight of last nine series games; they lost 30-20 in last meeting couple years ago. Washington is 4-8 in its last dozen trips to the desert. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Over is 9-2 in Washington games, 0-6 in Arizona home games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of its last three games.

Giants (8-3) @ Steelers (6-5) — New York won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) but last week in Cleveland was only true road game in that span- they beat Rams in London. Giants are 2-2 in true road games, losing by 14 in Minnesota, 7 in Green Bay; they also won in Dallas. Pittsburgh won last two games, allowing total of 16 points; Steelers lost last two home games, to Pats/Cowboys- they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Home side lost last three Giant-Steeler games; Pitt is 3-2 in last five series games. This is only 2nd time Giants have been in Steel City since 1991. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant games, 8-2 in last ten Steeler games.

Panthers (4-7) @ Seahawks (7-3-1) — Last four Carolina games were all decided by exactly three points; Panthers are 1-4 on road- they were favored in four of the five games- they’re 1-0 as an underdog this year. Carolina is 2-5 this season in games decided by three or less points. Seahawks are 6-2-1 in last nine games, 5-0 at home, 2-3 vs spread as a home favorite, with home wins by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Carolina-Seattle met in playoffs last two years; Panthers won 27-23/31-24 in two meetings with Seahawks LY. Carolina lost four of last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Seattle games. Seahawks new 1-3-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points.

Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8 ) — Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Los Angeles at New England

Tom Brady tied Peyton Manning for most wins by a quarterback in NFL history Sunday, getting his 200th in a 22-17 win over Jets. Home field is something Patriots can tap into as Brady shoots for Win # 201. The Patriots have won 38 of the past 45 regular season games in front of the home audience with a 26-17-2 record against the betting line winning by a 9.9 points/game margin.

Patriots are a hefty 13.5 to 14.5 point favorites for Brady's record breaking game. Take note, over the 45 mentioned home games Patriots have not responded vs the spread as double digit chalk. In thirteen situations the result is in 7 cashed tickets, 6 tossed in the waste basket. Additionally, Patriots are a money-burning 1-4 ATS as home faves following a win the previous effort then battling an NFC West opponent .

Carolina at Seattle

It's not too late for the Carolina Panthers. After losing five of their first six games, the Panthers (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) have found their footing again, and they still have a shot at a Wild Card berth in the wayward NFC. Standing in their way this Sunday night are the Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS), who opened as 6.5-point home favourites and quickly moved to –7 on the NFL odds board. Kick-off is at 8:30 PM ET on NBC.

The Seahawks had won three straight SU and ATS before things went haywire in last week's 14-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6 at home). Safety Earl Thomas missed the first game of his career, and cornerback DeShawn Shead also had to sit out, both with hamstring injuries. Their status for Week 13 remains uncertain at press time.

Carolina has a point differential of minus-5 on the season, so that 4-7 record is deceiving, but the Cats are in big trouble on the injury front. Star linebacker Luke Kuechly is out indefinitely with a concussion, and the makeshift offensive line in front of quarterback Cam Newton has been even worse without centre Ryan Kalil (shoulder) and tackle Michael Oher (concussion).

Pick Six - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 12 Record: 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Overall Record: 33-39 SU, 31-38-1 ATS

Review: A rough week as the lone straight-up winner was the Ravens over the Bengals. The Jets cashed as home underdogs against the Patriots, while the Panthers pushed in a three-point loss to the Raiders.

Chiefs at Falcons (-5½, 49)

Kansas City
Record: 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Chiefs have been outgained in each of their last four games, but Kansas City has found a way to win three of those contests. In last Sunday night’s last-second overtime victory at Denver, the Chiefs mustered less than 300 yards offensively, but improved to 9-3 SU/ATS in their past 12 games away from Arrowhead Stadium. However, Kansas City owns a 2-5 SU/ATS mark in its previous seven games against NFC opponents with one of those wins coming at Carolina in Week 10 by erasing a late 17-0 deficit.

Atlanta
Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 9-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Falcons remain atop the NFC South after cruising past the Cardinals last Sunday, 38-19 as four-point favorites. Atlanta improved to 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2015 as the Falcons busted the 30-point mark for the fourth straight home game. Matt Ryan’s touchdown to interception ratio at the Georgia Dome improved to 12/3 following a two-touchdown performance against Arizona. Ryan owns a 2-0 SU/ATS career record against the Chiefs, including a 40-24 victory over Kansas City in the 2012 season opener.

Best Bet: Atlanta -5½

Texans at Packers (-6½, 45½)

Houston
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

It’s been a rough road, literally for Houston this season. The Texans have dropped four of five games away from NRG Stadium with the only road victory coming at Jacksonville in Week 10. Houston suffered its first home defeat of the season in last Sunday’s 21-13 setback, the first time this season the Texans have lost two straight games. The Texans have struggled defensively on the highway by giving up at least 27 points in their four road losses, while the OVER cashed three times.

Green Bay
Record: 5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Packers put an end to a four-game slide in last Monday’s 27-13 victory at Philadelphia as four-point underdogs. The Green Bay defense fixed its woes for at least one week after giving up 89 points in the previous two losses at Washington and Tennessee. Aaron Rodgers continued to stay hot for the Packers by throwing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while eclipsing the 300-yard mark for the third straight week. The Packers have compiled a 3-4-1 ATS mark as a favorite this season, but have lost two of their last three at Lambeau Field.

Best Bet: Houston +6½

Lions at Saints (-6, 53)

Detroit
Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Lions keep finding ways to win as Detroit is coming off its seventh victory this season when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. Detroit edged Minnesota, 16-13 to even its mark inside the NFC North at 2-2, while pulling off the season tiebreaker over the Vikings. Detroit’s defense has been excellent during this three-game winning streak by allowing 48 points, while cashing the UNDER in five straight contests. The Lions went into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last December and knocked off the Saints, 35-27 as Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes in the victory.

New Orleans
Record: 5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Saints are riding a 7-1 ATS stretch the last eight games, punctuated by a 49-21 blowout of the Rams as eight-point favorites. New Orleans has won two of its last three at the Superdome since an 0-2 start at home, but have put together a 1-3 ATS mark as a home favorite. Drew Brees reached the 30-touchdown plateau for the ninth consecutive season as the New Orleans quarterback tossed four touchdowns against Los Angeles. The Saints had won the previous three home meetings with the Lions prior to last season’s eight-point defeat.

Best Bet: Detroit +6

Dolphins at Ravens (-3½, 40½)

Miami
Record: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

After five games, the Dolphins were sitting in the doghouse at 1-4. However, Adam Gase’s team has ripped off six consecutive victories to move into the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Dolphins held off the 49ers last Sunday, 31-24, but failed to cover for the first time in six games as 7 ½-point home favorites. Ryan Tannehill is finally getting away from the “game manager” moniker as the Dolphins’ quarterback has tossed nine touchdowns and been intercepted only once during this six-game hot streak. Miami has won its last two road games since starting 0-3 on the highway, but the Dolphins needed late comebacks at San Diego and Los Angeles.

Baltimore
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Ravens have gone through an uneven campaign at 6-5, but that’s good enough to be tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North. Baltimore pulled off the three-game home sweep of divisional foes by holding off Cincinnati last week, 19-14 as the Ravens’ defense limited their three rivals to 14 points or fewer. The Ravens have hit the UNDER in four consecutive games to improve to 7-3-1 to the UNDER this season. Baltimore has owned this series by winning five matchups between 2008 and 2014 before the Dolphins tripped up the Ravens without Joe Flacco last season, 15-13.

Best Bet: Miami +3½

Buccaneers at Chargers (-4, 47½)

Tampa Bay
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

For whatever reason, the Buccaneers have played better away from Raymond James Stadium this season. Tampa Bay owns a solid 4-1 SU/ATS road record as the Bucs head to the west coast for the third time this season. The Bucs picked up only their second home victory last Sunday in a 14-5 triumph over the Seahawks as five-point underdogs to improve to 5-1 ATS in their previous six opportunities when receiving points. The defense has been a major reason why Tampa Bay has gotten back into the NFC South race by allowing 32 total points in the last three wins since giving up 43 to Atlanta in Week 9.

San Diego
Record: 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Chargers’ roller-coaster season continued in last Sunday’s 21-13 triumph at Houston as 2½-point favorites. San Diego has now alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, looking for consecutive victories for the first time since knocking off Denver and Atlanta in mid-October. The Chargers have won four straight December home games in the role of a favorite, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark as in December/January action last season.

Best Bet: San Diego -4

Giants at Steelers (-6, 48½)

New York
Record: 8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Giants face the Cowboys in a crucial NFC East battle next Sunday night at Met Life Stadium as New York looks to remain two games back in the division. First, New York needs a victory at Pittsburgh as the Giants attempt to pull off the four-game sweep of AFC North opponents. The Giants pulled away from the winless Browns last Sunday, 27-13 to capture their sixth consecutive win as Eli Manning has racked up over 260 yards passing only once during this hot streak.

Pittsburgh
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Steelers return home following back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis. Pittsburgh allowed a total of 16 points in those victories, as the Steelers faced a pair of backup quarterbacks in those games. Since beating Washington in the season opener, the Steelers have lost their other two games against NFC East foes, falling to Philadelphia and Dallas, while giving up an average of 34.5 points per game in those defeats. Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in six of the last eight games, as the Steelers are going for their first home win since Week 5 against the Jets.

Best Bet: New York +6

Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

After watching the ‘under’ produce an 11-3 record in Week 11, the total pendulum swung the other way during the long holiday weekend with an 8-8 stalemate. Those results could’ve easily been 11-5 to the ‘under’ but three games flip-flopped with late fourth-quarter surges that helped ‘over’ tickets connect.

Dallas 31 Washington 26 (Over 53½) – 34 combined points in the 4th quarter
Tennessee 27 Chicago 21 (Over 42) – 17 total points in the final quarter, 14 from Chicago in final 8 minutes
Buffalo 28 Jacksonville 21 (Over 44) – 36 combined points in the 2nd half

As always, we apologize to those who had the ‘under’ in those contest and at the same time congratulate the winners. Through 12 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with a 90-86-1 record through 12 weeks.

Home-Away Tendencies

There are no divisional games on tap for Week 13, which means a lot more of your handicapping will be based on current form. Along with following the streaks on hand, we’ve got some solid ‘home vs. away’ total angles to watch this weekend and for the final five weeks of the season.

Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 at home behind a defensive unit that’s only surrendering 12.7 points per game.

The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in San Diego’s five games at Qualcomm Stadium this season behind a great offense (32 PPG) and weak defense (25.6 PPG).

Oakland is 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home.

The Baltimore Ravens are allowing 14.3 PPG at home this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.

The New York Giants haven’t been able to consistently score (18 PPG) on the road this season and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.

San Francisco has allowed a league-high 36.4 PPG on the road this season. The ‘over’ is 4-1 outside of Santa Clar.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has struggled on the road (24.7 PPG) compared to at home (13 PPG) and that’s resulted in a 4-1-1 ‘over’ mark as visitors.

Inflated Numbers?

The highest total listed for Week 13 takes place between Detroit and New Orleans. The number is hovering between 52 and 53 points, which isn’t a surprise considering the venue (Superdome). The Saints are averaging 30.4 points per game on offense and the defense (27.9 PPG) is the third worst scoring unit in the league. Despite that perfect combination, New Orleans has only seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 this season. I’m guessing many still believe Detroit is known for its offense but the reason why this team is successful is because of the defense (21.6 PPG). The Lions have been super in their last five games, holding opponents to 17 PPG and that’s produced a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.

Other notable games with high numbers to watch are listed below.

Kansas City at Atlanta: This total (49) is clearly based on the Falcons, who lead the league in scoring offense (32.5 PPG). Kansas City has had trouble scoring (22.9 PPG) all season and I wouldn’t buy into last week’s 30-point outburst at Denver. Even though that game went ‘over’ the number, the Chiefs are clear-cut ‘under’ (8-3) team and the defense leads the league with 24 takeaways.

Buffalo at Oakland: I’m a little surprised this total has dropped from 49½ to 48½ as of Saturday morning but concerns over Oakland QB Derek Carr (finger) have been brought up. Still, the Raiders (9-2) and Bills (8-3) have been two of the best ‘over’ clubs this season. Oakland’s offense is one of the top units in the league and Buffalo’s attack is playing very well lately. The Bills are averaging 27.7 PPG in their last seven games and that’s led to a 6-1 ‘over’ mark. Traveling to the West Coast is never easy but Buffalo has posted 30 and 25 points in their first two games to Los Angeles and Seattle respectively. The Raiders defense isn’t close to those units and expecting Buffalo to get near those numbers seems very doable.

Washington at Arizona: Based on the Cardinals total tendencies (see above) at home, I’m surprised this number is this high. Plus, Arizona’s playoff hopes are in jeopardy and you’d expect a sense of urgency in the desert. A more compelling reason to lean ‘under’ is based on the Cardinals scoring defense (12.7 PPG) at home, which is the best in the league. Washington’s offense will be a nice test but not having tight end Jordan Reed (shoulder) is a big void to fill. The Redskins have been a great ‘over’ bet (9-2) this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them after coming off the emotional holiday loss at Dallas.

Coast to Coast

The most popular total angle this season churned out more profits in Week 12 as the ‘over’ went 2-1 in games where teams from the West Coast are playing in the Eastern Time Zone.

Arizona 19 at Atlanta 38 (Over 49)
San Francisco 24 at Miami 31 (Over 45)
Seattle 5 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 46)

Including the results from Week 12, the ‘over’ is now 13-2 (87%) with these matchups. If you include the numbers from last season when this trend picked up, the ‘over’ is 24-7 (77%) during this span.

We only have five matchups remaining (one Sunday) this season and if all five games happen to go ‘under’ the number, most bettors would still take any angle that hits at a 65 percent clip (13-7).

Week 13 – Los Angeles at New England: Make a note that this is the lowest total (44) the Patriots have seen since QB Tom Brady returned to the lineup.
Week 14 – Arizona at Miami, San Diego at Carolina
Week 15 – San Francisco at Atlanta
Week 16 – San Diego at Cleveland

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ posted a 2-1 mark in the primetime matchups last week and the overall mark for the season is 22-17-1 to the low side which includes this past result on Thursday between Dallas and Minnesota.

Carolina at Seattle: This pair has met six times in the last five seasons and the first three matchups were good old fashioned slugfests (16-12, 12-7, 13-9) but the last three encounters had the scoreboard operator working hard with an average combined score of 51 PPG. For the seventh installment, the oddsmakers expect somewhere in between and have the total listed at 44. You could point to the ‘over’ knowing both clubs are beat up on the defensive side of the ball but the travel toll on both teams this season has been a nightmare. Carolina has played better offensively on the road (27.2 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its road games. Surprisingly, Seattle’s defensive numbers have been better on the road (15.8 PPG) than at CenturyLink Field (18.4 PPG) this season.

Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: This total (48½) seems a tad high but the Colts have been perfect to the ‘over’ (5-0) on the road this season. QB Andrew Luck is expected to return and with a few extra days to prepare, I’d expect the offense to play well in this spot. The Jets defense still garners a lot of respect but the numbers (24.2 PPG) tell a slightly different story. Indy’s defense (395 YPG) is far from great but can you trust QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets to do their part? New York has scored a combined 23 points in its last two home games and the ‘under’ connected easily in both.

Fearless Predictions

Tough holiday weekend ended ugly and the Buccaneers team total summed up the slate. We’ve got five weeks in the regular season left to erase the deficit ($430) and hopefully it starts in Week 13. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-San Diego 47½

Best Under: Kansas City-Atlanta 49

Best Team Total: Under Baltimore 22

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Tampa Bay-San Diego Over 38½
Denver-Jacksonville Under 49
Buffalo-OaklandOver 39½

SNF - Panthers at Seahawks
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

When scanning the schedules for every team before the season started, Sunday night's Week 13 clash with Carolina visiting Seattle was circled as a certain top-5 game of the year. It's been the premier NFC match-up the last two seasons with the regular season meeting being a prelude to a playoff meeting and the winner making a Super Bowl appearance.

However, the Panthers (4-7) resume has fallen well below expectations following a physical Super Bowl loss to Denver. Cam Newton sulked, and the NFL didn't do his team any favors by scheduling a rematch for the first time ever in a Week 1 match-up, which ended in a another Denver win. Newton sulked some more, got beat up some more -- albeit unprotected by the refs, and the Super Bowl slump was underway with a 1-5 start.

Since then Carolina has won three of its last five, but the most noticeable difference, besides Newton not having fun and dabbing weekly, is the team finding ways to lose close games. Their last four losses have been by three points. Last season they found ways to win those games, including a fourth-quarter come back win at Seattle, which helped them gain home field throughout the playoffs.

Playoffs don't look to be in the Panthers future this season, but if Newton can somehow restore his confidence they can at least close out the season respectable and carry something over to 2017.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks (7-3-1) come off a shocking 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay which ended a three-game win streak against strong teams like Buffalo, New England and Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was showing signs that he was close to being 100 percent for the first time this season while continuing a Pete Carroll staple of dominating the second-half of a season. Since 2012, Seattle had gone 31-6 in November and December (one Jan. game) prior to the Tampa loss.

The good news for Seattle is that they get a couple of key defensive performers back from injury this week and the defense, despite not looking as strong as recent seasons, still leads the NFL allowing only 17 ppg. Seattle has won all five of their home games (3-2 ATS).

The Panthers have gone 1-4 on the road (1-3-1 ATS) with four of the games going Over the total. They are currently on a run of going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games, which is part of the reason the spread keeps rising.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5 last Sunday night and the number briefly went to -7 on Monday, but Carolina money pushed it back down to -6.5. On Thursday, they were pushed back up to -7 and eventually to -7 (-120), where every book in town is sitting. The lone exception is the South Point at 7-flat because they don't add extra juice to sides. The total has dropped from 45 to 44.

WHO THEY BETTING?

"We're gonna being in trouble with the Seahawks because no one wants the Panthers," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said. "The Seahawks have been bet heavy at -6.5, and -7 and we're currently at -7 (-120)."

The Seahawks are tied into the Packers as one of the most popular risky teaser and parlay combinations of the day. In April when CG Tech books opened numbers on every game, the Seahawks were -3 for this one.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Seattle three points better than Carolina on a neutral field and give the home field, one of the best in the NFL, a full three points which makes my true number for the game Seattle -6. I have Seattle tied with Dallas as the top rated teams in the NFC, two points behind NFL leader New England.

WEATHER

There's a 40 percent chance of showers in Seattle Sunday night with temperatures at 36 degrees and winds from the west up to 13 mph. Not exactly ideal conditions for passing, but it's really just a normal December night in Seattle.

KEY INJURIES

The Panthers biggest blow is not having LB Luke Kuechly (concussion and they'll also be without offensive-linemen Ryan Kalil, Gino Gradkowski, Daryl Williams and Michael Oher. Meanwile the injury riddled Seahawks have good news with DE Michael Bennett (knee), DB Earl Thomas (hamstring), CB Deashawn Snead (hamstring) and DE Damontre Moore (foot) all expected to play.

TRENDS

Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS against in last seven against NFC teams.
Carolina Over 7-2 in last nine following straight-up loss.
Carolina Over 12-3 in last 15 against winning teams.
Seattle is 10-1 ATS in last 11 Week 13 games.
Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS in last seven after scoring less that 15 points in previous game.
Seattle Under 12-2 in last 14 December games.

RECENT MEETINGS

The two teams met in Week 6 last season at Seattle and the Seahawks (-7) had a 23-14 lead in the fourth quarter only to see Carolina reel off 13 unanswered and win which kept Carolina undefeated at 5-0. Seattle would drop to 2-4, but go on to win seven of the next eight and make the playoffs where they'd play at Carolina in the Divisional Round. The Panthers (-2.5) jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead and held on to win 31-24. Seattle had won five against Carolina straight before dropping those two last season. The last five meetings in Seattle have gone Over the total, as have the past three three meetings overall.

DIVISION ODDS

Five games remain and the Cardinals are three games behind Seattle in the NFC West, but the Westgate SuperBook called the race over and took the odds off the board. Meanwhile, Carolina, who opened the season as the 2-to-7 favorite to win the NFC South, are now being offered at 100-to-1. The Falcons are the 1-to-4 favorite with the Saints 9-to-2 followed by the Buccaneers at 7-to-1.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Carolina was 12-to-1 to win it all before the season, but the Westgate will give you 300-to-1 now. Hey, you never know. Cam Newton is the type of dynamic player that can carry a team for two months. Seattle opened as the 8-to-1 co-favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they've been dropped to 7-to-1, but both Dallas (4/1) and New England (7/5) have passed them as favorites.

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate Superbook opened early Week 14 numbers on Tuesday and posted Seattle -2.5 (-120) at Green Bay. Carolina is -2.5 at home against San Diego.