NFL Week 14
Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5) - KC put newly-acquired QB Orton in for start of 2nd quarter at Chicago last week; he dislocated index finger on passing hand the first play, so Palko was back under center- he completed 38-yard Hail Mary on last play of half, just Chiefs’ 2nd TD on last 54 drives, as KC snapped 4-game skid. Chiefs won three of last four away games; they’re 4-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-3-31 points. Jets are 7-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 3-29-18-6-4 points, with loss to Patriots. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread. Home side won four of last five Chief-Jet games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last seven KC games stayed under total; seven of Jets’ last ten went over.
Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3) - Winless Colts are back in town they deserted 28 years ago; Indy won nine of last 11 series games and eight in row, but Manning was under center for those games, not Orlovsky, who was terrific in garbage time last week, but helped dig Colts 31-3 hole before that. Indy is 1-7 vs spread in last eight games; they’re 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 27-7-10-55-17-7 points. Last time Colts started drive on plus side of field was Week 3; over their last seven games, they’re -14 in turnovers. Ravens are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 28-17-15-3-7-10 points. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Teams are 1-9 SU (1-2 as favorites) the week after playing Cleveland; underdogs are 2-2 the week after playing New England. Three of last four Raven games stayed under the total.
Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5) - First NFL road start for rookie QB Yates, but Texans won/covered last six games, allowing only three TD’s on 47 drives in last four games. Houston is 4-2 on road, losing at Saints/Ravens; all four wins were by 10+ points. Bengals lost three of last four games, with all three L’s to Steelers/Ravens; Cincy is 3-2 at home, losing to Steelers/49ers- they’ve got only four takeaways in last five games (-4) after taking ball away 11 times in first eight games (+3). Home side won three of last four series games, with Houston winning last two meetings, 35-6/28-17. Teams are 8-3 SU (3-2 as dogs) week after playing Atlanta; teams are 3-7 SU (0-4 as favorites) week after playing Pittsburgh. Under is 7-2 in last nine Houston games; 2-5-1 in last eight Bengal tilts.
Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0) - Green Bay playing for history now, only four wins away from 16-0 season; they’re 13-5 vs spread during this epic win streak, 4-1 as home favorites this year, winning at Lambeau by 8-26-21-38-9 points. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve won three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 20 at Miami, 3 at Buffalo on foreign soil (4-2 SU). Pack won last five series games, with four of the five wins by 13+ points; Raiders lost last three visits here, by 28-4-31 points, after winning first three visits. AFC West road underdogs are 5-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North home favorites are 8-6. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread week after playing Miami; favorites are 2-2 week after playing the Giants. Four of last five Oakland games, five of last six Packer tilts went over total.
Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5) - Frustration mounting for playoff-starved Detroit squad that’s been beating itself with immature play; Lions lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start, during which time they beat Vikings 26-23 in OT at Metrodome, after trailing 20-0 at half. Detroit scored 24+ points in all seven wins, 19 or less in every loss; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Ford Field by 45-11-14 points, but they’ve lost three of last four at home, Hapless Vikings lost last four games, giving up 32.8 ppg; they’re 2-2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-5-29-38-10 points, with a win at Carolina. Lions have 22 penalties for 189 yards in last two games; is NFL sending them message for not disciplining their players themselves? Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.
Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5) - New Orleans is 6-0 at home, scoring 39.8 ppg, just 3-3 on road, allowing 26.5 ppg with losses to Rams/Bucs, two of worst teams in NFL; Saints are 2-2 on grass, outscoring foes 109-105. Tennessee won three of last four games, running ball for 389 yards last two weeks, as Johnson suddenly found his form- they were averaging 77.3 yards/game on ground up until then. Titans are 4-2 at home, losing to Texans/Bengals; they’re 5-1-1 vs spread as underdogs this year. Titans won last four series games, with three wins by 15+ points; last Saint series win was in 1993. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-11-1 vs spread, 3-4 at home; NFC South road favorites are also 3-4. Last six Tennessee games, three of last four Saint games stayed under. Saints won/covered last four games since awful loss in St Louis.
Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8) - Two teams with same record going in opposite directions; Miami won four of last five games after 0-7 start, outscoring foes 89-31 in winning last three home games, allowing two garbage-time TD’s in last 33 home possessions- they’re 3-0 as a favorite this year. Eagles lost four of last five games, giving up 10.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt in last two games- they’re expected to get Vick back under center here, but they lost his last two starts, too. Philly has had edge in field position only four times this year, but they lost three of those four games- they played last Thursday- underdogs that lost the previous Thursday are 0-2 vs spread this year. Under is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last five home games. NFC East non-divsional underdogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 on road. AFC East home favorites are 7-5-1.
Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8) - New England won last four games (3-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in all four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Patriots are +8 in turnovers (9-1) in those games- they’re 4-2 on road, with all four wins by 12+ points (losses at Bills/Steelers). Redskins lost seven of last eight games, dropping last four at home by 7-8-3-15 points. Skins led Jets with 5:00 left last week, but gave up three TDs in x:xx and lost 34-19. Washington won six of last eight series games but lost 52-7 at Foxboro in last meeting, vs 18-1 Pats, who lost only two visits here, 22-17 in ’03, 24-22 in ’81. Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Colts; underdogs are likewise 1-4 week after playing the Jets. Last two weeks, AFC teams have won eight of ten against NFC opponents. Brady vs Grossman is severe QB mismatch.
Falcons (7-5) @ Panthers (4-8) - Atlanta won four of last five series games, beating Carolina 31-17 (-4) at home in Week 6, with +3 turnover ratio leading to +13 edge in field position; they’ve won last three series games by 21-21-14 points, are 7-4 here, but this series has also been split four of last five years. Falcons were held to 14 or less points in four of their five losses; barring a monsoon, Carolina ain’t holding them under 14. Carolina won last two games, scoring 27-38 points; they’re 2-4 at home, beating Jaguars/Redskins. Panthers are 3-2 as underdogs this year, but eight of their ten losses are by 5+ points. NFC home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Last eight Falcon games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went over.
Buccaneers (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9) - Tampa Bay lost last six games (1-5 vs spread), Jaguars lost last three and are on short week with smaller coaching staff after last week’s firings; they gave up last 24 points of game in sloppy home loss to Chargers Monday night. Tampa Bay is 1-3 as a favorite this year, 1-5 away from home, with only win in Week 2 at Minnesota when they trailed 17-0 at half. Jags have three TD’s on last 31 drives, scoring 12.3 ppg in losses last three weeks by 4-7-24 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, with all four decided by 7 or less points; Bucs lost both visits here, 29-24/17-10. Bucs allowed 365 rushing yards last two weeks, good news for fantasy owners who have Jones-Drew. Usually bad teams don’t respond well after losing national TV game, but if Freeman is still out for Bucs, who knows?
49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7) - Niners clinched division last week, but real prize is first round bye, so they’ve got to keep going here, vs Arizona team they beat 23-7 (-9.5) at Candlestick three weeks ago. 49ers outgained Arizona 431-229, outrushed them 164-80, forced five turnovers (+4) and converted 8-21 3rd down plays in that game, but that was with Skelton, not Kolb under center for Cards. Redbirds won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 3-2 at home, with 32-20 loss to Steelers only home loss by more than 4 points; they’re 1-2 as home dog this year. SF has started 26 drives in enemy territory, compared to six for opponents; they’re +18 in turnovers, Arizona is -8. 49ers won last five series games, with last four by average score of 28-7; Niners won last two visits to desert, 20-16/27-6.
Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5) - Denver now 6-1 with Tebow starting at QB, winning last three weeks by 4-3-3 points; if game is close late, Broncos have supreme confidence in ability to pull game out. Can’t say same for Bears, who lost both of Hanie’s starts by 5-7 points; he’s thrown six INTs in two starts, converted only 6 of 25 3rd down plays and looks lost. Chicago had turned ball over only 12 times in Cutler’s 10 starts. Denver won/covered last five games; in four of their 12 games this year, the first Bronco TD was scored by defense/special teams. Bears won last two series meetings 19-10/37-34; four of last five series totals were 29 or less. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; three of Denver’s last four stayed under. Maybe return to Rocky Mountains will help Hanie (went to school at Colorado State) some here.
Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7) - San Diego snapped 6-game skid Monday night on road vs anemic Jaguars, averaging 10.5 yards/pass attempt, getting them within two games of top spot in AFC West, but Chargers lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points- their last home win was October 2. Bolts have severe injury issues on OL, playing on short week could be problem. San Diego is 3-5 as favorite this year, 1-4 at home. Buffalo lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 2-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4, with Week 1 win at Arrowhead. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Bills lost last four trips here, by 33-2-3-38 points- their last win here was in ’81. AFC East road underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Underdogs are 0-6 vs spread this season the week after playing Tennessee.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 14 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Why Falcons cover: They’re in the playoff hunt and would like to stay in it, so they’ve got plenty of motivation to get the win and cover. Atlanta 15-5-1 ATS last 21 vs. losing teams, while Carolina 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams. Then there’s this unusual stat: Falcons 12-1 ATS last 13 after scoring less than 15 in previous game.
Why Panthers cover: QB Cam Newton sure doesn’t look like a rookie. The guy can throw (3,297 yards) and run (513 yards, 13 TDs), and he even had a big reception in last week’s 38-19 rout at Tampa. Home team in this rivalry has covered six of last seven.
Total (48): Falcons flying low a lot lately, with total going under eight games in a row. Under also 12-3-1 last 16 Atlanta-Carolina meetings in Charlotte.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)
Why Colts cover: They’ve been double-digit dogs four times this season and they’ve cashed three times in that spot, including last week’s 31-24 loss at New England catching a whopping 20.5 points. In this rivalry, Indy also on 7-0 ATS roll overall and has covered four straight in Baltimore.
Why Ravens cover: Offense seems to be getting in gear, particularly RB Ray Rice, who went haywire last week for 204 yards in a rout at Cleveland. And defense among league’s best, standing third in points allowed (16.0) and yards allowed (287.3).
Total (41): These two teams have met regularly over the past several years and one common theme has been unders, which are 7-1 in last eight contests.
Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Why Eagles cover: The really bad Dream Team welcomes back QB Michael Vick (broken ribs), who returns after missing three games, which could help Philly halt season-killing 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Miami 1-5 ATS last six vs. losing teams.
Why Dolphins cover: Fish are among hottest teams at betting window lately, covering in six straight games and taking four of last five SU. Philly has dumped six in a row ATS against losing teams.
Total (45): Over has hit in 10 of Philly’s last 12 roadies, but Miami on bundle of under streaks, including 9-1-1 overall.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Why Saints cover: They’re on a hot streak as they surge toward the playoffs, winning and covering last four in a row, including the last three over playoff contenders Atlanta, the Giants and Detroit. New Orleans putting up 32.8 ppg (second) with league’s most productive offense (448.7 ypg).
Why Titans cover: They’ve also cashed four straight (3-1 SU) and are stout in the underdog role, with ATS streaks of 5-1 overall and 9-2 at home. And RB Chris Johnson finally looking like, well, Chris Johnson, following up 190-yard day against Tampa Bay with 153 yards in win at Buffalo last week. Saints 3-8 ATS last 11 on highway.
Total (48.5): Titans tend to keep score low lately, with under on runs of 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (N/A)
Why Vikings cover: Vikings catching Detroit in a big downslide, as Lions are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games. It appears stud RB Adrian Peterson will return, which will help Minnesota. Vikes 7-3-3 ATS last 13 in this NFC North rivalry.
Why Lions cover: Getting desperate for victories to avoid falling out of playoff chase. Despite recent drought, Lions still 10-4 ATS last 14 at home dome.
Total: Under 8-2 last 10 roadies for Vikings, 4-1 last five at home for Lions, 6-1 last seven in this rivalry and 4-0 last four Minny-Detroit clashes in Motor City.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)
Why Chiefs cover: Coming off 10-3 road upset of Chicago as 9-point underdogs. In fact, K.C. likes the underdog role, going 7-1 ATS last eight overall and 4-1 ATS last five as road pup.
Why Jets cover: If Mark Sanchez & Co. want to stay in this playoff chase, they’ve got to win some games and look like a playoff team in doing so. Maybe facing a losing team is just what they need, as they are 4-1 ATS last five against sub-.500 units.
Total (36.5): Add up Kansas City’s point totals for the past five games and you don’t even get to 36.5, with Chiefs scoring 10 points twice and single digits three times. Under has hit seven in a row for Todd Haley’s troops. On flip side, over 22-8 in Jets’ last 30 overall.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Why Texans cover: Arian Foster can help mask a lot of weaknesses, such as playing third-string QB T.J. Yates. Foster already has 916 rushing yards and another 510 receiving, helping surging Houston to six consecutive SU wins and a 5-0-1 ATS mark in that stretch. Cincy on ill-timed nosedive, losing three of last four SU while going 0-3-1 ATS.
Why Bengals cover: They’ve got to bounce back at some point and facing Texans perhaps not as bad as facing Pittsburgh twice and Baltimore once, as Cincy has done during its current slide. This is Bengals’ chance to restore playoff hopes.
Total (37.5): Texans on over runs of 8-2 as dogs, 6-1 as road pups and 24-9 vs. winning teams, and Bengals on over surges of 7-2 overall and 4-0 at home.
New England Patriots (-9) at Washington Redskins
Why Patriots cover: It’s time for the postseason push, and New England is just far superior to Washington. Pats have won four straight, with three wins coming by 18 points or more. Conversely, Skins have dumped seven of last eight SU and gone 2-6 ATS in that stretch.
Why Redskins cover: This is a tough one. About all that can be said is nine points is a lot to be getting at home, particularly since Pats beat winless Colts by just a touchdown last week in Foxborough.
Total (47.5): Final score has gone over in three of last four for both these teams and over 11-4 in Pats’ last 15 roadies. But Washington sports under streaks of 8-2 vs. winning teams and 13-6 overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (N/A)
Why Buccaneers cover: For the pride of being the best NFL team in Florida north of Miami. Now that’s a lot to play for. Miserable Jags opened 2011 season with win and cover and have gone 2-9 SU (3-7-1 ATS) since then.
Why Jaguars cover: This team is nothing to write home about, but lately, you wouldn’t even want to pay for the stamp with Tampa Bay, which is on a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS freefall.
Total: Jags average just 12.7 ppg (31st), and Bucs have scored 19 or less five times during their current skid. Under 6-1 Jacksonville’s last seven.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the NFL covering the number better than Niners this year, who are a stout 10-1-1 ATS, two games better than any other team in the league. And San Fran owns this NFC West rivalry, cashing six straight overall (5-1 SU) and five in a row in the desert.
Why Cardinals cover: This is a team on the upswing, though far too late to make a difference. Cardinals on 4-1 SU and ATS run, including overtime upset of visiting Cowboys last week. Niners 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road chalk.
Total (39.5): Tons of under streaks for both teams. San Fran on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on highway and 8-2-1 as road favorite. Arizona on under runs of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in NFC West and 10-4 at home.
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Why Bears cover: After dropping last two games, they need a win badly to stay relevant in NFC playoff picture. Denver 16-34-1 ATS last 54 games as home favorite.
Why Broncos cover: Denver has won five in a row SU and ATS, and Bears – already reeling at loss of QB Jay Cutler –won’t have stud RB Matt Forte this week. That puts lot of pressure on inexperienced QB Caleb Hanie.
Total (35.5): Denver has played some ugly offensive games, with under hitting three in a row before last week’s explosion in 35-32 win at Minnesota. Yet the Tebows are on over streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 laying points and 9-2 in December. Over has also hit in four of Chicago’s last five.
Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)
Why Bills cover: Bills had terrific start to season but have been awful for weeks. That said, Chargers have been huge disappointment and are just 1-6 SU and ATS last seven.
Why Chargers cover: Maybe, just maybe, they turned corner in 38-14 road rout of Jacksonville last week. Amazingly enough, San Diego could still win AFC West, so they’ve got plenty to play for, while Bills are virtually dead in playoff race after losing five straight games (1-4 ATS).
Total (47.5): Bills tend to play to over (9-3-1 last 13 overall, 6-0-1 last seven roadies), but under seems to be the play with Chargers at Qualcomm, hitting nine of last 10.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)
Why Raiders cover: Lambeau Field is not where you want to travel right now, but still, 11 points is a lot to be catching – Pack 8-17-2 ATS last 27 laying more than 10. Oakland in a good bounce-back bet, cashing seven of last eight after SU loss and they’d covered six straight on highway before last week’s letdown at Miami.
Why Packers cover: Why not? Almost nothing bad to say about defending Super Bowl champs, who have won 18 consecutive games and gone 13-5 against spread in that span. Packers lead league at 35 ppg, a dozen more than Raiders’ average (22.8). And Aaron Rodgers is just ridiculous – 37 TDs, 5 INTs.
Total (52.5): Over has been play in four of Raiders’ last five and five of Packers last six.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Why Giants cover: It’s do-or-die for Big Blue, who can put very ill-timed four-game slide behind them if they can knock off NFC East rival, whom they’ve beaten on last two trips to Dallas. Cowboys on several noteworthy pointspread purges, including 1-5 overall, 3-13-1 laying points and 5-14 in December.
Why Cowboys cover: Giants also struggling in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 1-4 in division play and 2-6-1 against winning teams. And Dallas has been stewing all week while getting grilled by media for overtime loss at Arizona. Cowboys have incentive with chance to take full control of NFC East.
Total (48.5): Last four games in this rivalry have all gone high and featured minimum of 53 points. Last year’s clash in Dallas was a 41-35 win for New York, and in 2009, Giants won 33-31.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (N/A)
Why Rams cover: More important, why is this game in the Monday night spotlight? Not much to say in Rams’ defense, but Seattle 2-6 ATS last eight in December.
Why Seahawks cover: Despite starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Seattle 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games. And Seahawks have Rams’ number, cashing eight of last nine overall and four in a row at home.
Total: Rams are like pimply faced kid at the prom, hoping to score, but it never really happens. St. Louis averaging league-worst 11.7 ppg. That makes it reasonable to think under, which is 4-1 in Rams’ last five overall and 18-7-1 last 26 inside NFC West. Seattle, though, on over streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-0 in December and 17-6 overall.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It’s going to be a rough weekend for Las Vegas sports books if the two most heavily bet public favorites cover on Sunday with enormous liability already showing up on the Packers and Patriots.
“We got lucky last week with the Packers and Patriots not covering, but the risk looks even bigger this week on those two teams,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “I haven’t gotten any large bets on either of the teams, but to see the type of heavy parlay and teaser action we already have on a Thursday when 90% of the action will come 24 hours before the game, I already know what is in store for us Sunday.”
Osborne doesn’t have the straight bets to push the spread higher to possibly offset the continued flow of risk, and rarely ever moves a numbers based on parlays, but a higher number wouldn't even stop the kind of bets he's getting. It’s pretty incredible that despite both teams burning the public last week that they’ve jumped right back on the wagon with even more vigor.
Osborne says his ticket count ratio on the Packers is 7½-to-1 over the Raiders, a huge differential for a pro game.
“I thought the 11-points might have scared some people off, but they’re coming on Green Bay stronger than ever.”
Another surprise is that we’re seeing two NFL powerhouses, the Patriots and Packers, with a combined 21-3 record (15-9 ATS) that have the No. 31 and No. 32 defenses in the league from a yardage allowed standpoint. Doesn’t defense win championships, but then again, the run-option offensive scheme also won’t work in the NFL.
The Broncos have created a following with the public that has watched them go 6-1 ATS with Tim Tebow starting. The parlay numbers are adding up close to what the Patriots and Packers have, but the South Point has stayed steady with the Broncos laying - 3½ at home against the Bears.
“The only sharp money we saw in that game was some Bears money-line action at +170,” said Osborne who currently has the Broncos on a -175/+155 split.
Another side the public has jumped all over has been the 49ers (10-2 ATS) at Arizona. Osborne opened the 49ers as 3½-point favorites and that side hasn’t been touched by sharp money despite being the lowest in town with Coast Resorts sports books offering 4½ on the game, an indicator that sharp money likely won’t be on the 49ers.
Sharp money did come through the South Point book on the Bengals laying -2½ at home against the Texans and the Giants taking +3½ at Dallas. The wagers were more about the number offered by Osborne, who operates the only sports books in Las Vegas to not attach juice to a number other than -110. Laying -2½ was attractive, and still is, which why the South Point is at -3 flat now and hasn‘t found anyone to take that attractive number with the Texans.
The same thing happened with the Giants where the market created bets for Osborne, but unlike the Bengals game, the other sports books in town were later bet up on Dallas moving them from their -3 (-120) number to -3½. Coast books moved Dallas to -3 (130) to avoid the inevitable of moving off the key number.
Because “3” is such a key number, with all games landing on the number in 14.8% of the games this season -- the same average combined from the last five seasons, Osborne was able to withstand a few limits bets and hold ground. He avoids getting sided should the game end with Dallas winning by 3.
There’s nothing worse than trying to manage action on a game when money the bookmaker thought was balancing his book out disappears because of a push. It’s even worse when a line straddles a key number and then lands, making the book lose both sides.
Dallas looks to be a popular public side as well and with Osborne likely getting the only large Giants money in town, he should have his books positioned better than others if the Cowboys win by 4-points or more.
Seven games this week either started -2½, -3, or -3½. The Falcons were one of the them, pushed up a half to -3 at Carolina. No buy-back has come on the Panthers at home at +3 at the South Point, who has the only flat number in town. It could be sharp money not wanting the show their hand this early and are waiting for a number to settle all over at a preferred number.
If they grab the +3 right now, it’s an indicator to all books in the city that large money wants it. Or it could be that they don’t want the Panthers at all. Either way, stay tuned for lots of movement on this game closer to kick-off as sports books across the city have to weigh out their risk with the Falcons and decide when they eventually have to pull the trigger and go to 3.
The Dolphins are 3-flat at home against the Eagles who have Michael Vick back behind center this week. The Eagles are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt despite losing their last two games because the Giants and Cowboys ahead of them in the division have taken recent slides. Because the Dolphins have played so well over the last seven weeks, the public is split with 50-50 action between them. Even with all the losses, the Eagles still have plenty of supporters thinking this will be the week they come around.
Even though it’s only two-points, the Jets game has had the largest movement of the week going from an 8 ½-point favorite at home against the Chiefs to -10½.
Sam Bradford is still questionable for the Rams Monday night road game at Seattle and there’s a varied range of numbers among the few that have the game up. The Hilton has Seattle -4 ½, while Stations has -6½ and Lucky’s -7. Tom Brandstater will get the start if Bradford can’t go. Brandstater was cut by the Broncos last season after Tim Tebow was drafted and Brady Quinn was traded for. His first pass attempt Monday would be his first as a pro.
Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Tim Tebow came through again. The unconventional quarterback passed for a season-best 202 yards and two third-quarter touchdowns to help Denver defeat Vikings 35-32 on Sunday marking a fifth straight victory (5-0 ATS) for the squad and sixth in seven starts (6-1 ATS) with the pivot taking snaps. This week with injury plagued Bears coming to town Broncos are listed as 3.5 point favorites. Not the best betting situation as Broncos are duds as .5 to 3.5 favorites posting a 3-10-1 ATS mark last 14 occurrences in Denver. Bears with Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers built as well as any to stop the run-oriented Tebow offense the 'Gambling Gods' just might sprinkle a little bad luck on Broncos as Bears are on a smart 12-4 (11-4-1 ATS) stretch stuffing opposing teams ground game (<100 RY).
San Francisco at Arizona
49ers recovering nicely after having it's eight game win streak snapped at Baltimore destroyed lowly Rams 26-zip to wrap up the NFC West at 10-2 (10-1-1 ATS). No letdown when they travel to Arizona. 49ers and their stifling defense allowing a puny 13.4 PPG should have little trouble vs a Cardinal squad managing a lowly 19.3 per contest. Consider laying the small number (-3.5) knowing 49ers smacking Cardinals 23-7 back in week-11 have covered six straight in the series and enter on a smart 6-1 ATS streak playing in Arizona. Also of note, 49ers are on a 13-5 ATS streak vs the division and Cardinals are on a 3-23 ATS skid scoring <21 points/game
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Winless Colts (0-12, 3-9 ATS) as 20.5 point underdogs showed enough kick in their 31-24 loss to the Patriots that they're worth a second look heading into Baltimore. The Ravens are not about to drop this one but laying 16.5 is a little rich considering Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS skid at home laying a touchdown or more, 1-5 ATS overall laying double digits, 5-15 ATS vs the AFC South. Looking ahead to a trip into the Pacific Time Zone where they've mustered a 4-4 mark (2-6 ATS) last eight trips out West Ravens may not be totally focused giving Colts another solid shot at a back door cover.
Tip Sheet - Week 14
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Four games remain for each team in the NFL regular season (except for the Steelers and Browns) with plenty on the line heading into January. From a gambling perspective, favorites of between 2½ and 3½ points were poisonous for the first 11 weeks of the season. These chalky squads owned a 19-25-4 ATS record (43%) until Thanksgiving, but that number turned around with an 8-3 ATS mark the last two weeks. Five teams are in this situation on Sunday afternoon, including four clubs in playoff contention. We'll begin in Nashville with the surging Saints looking for an interconference victory at Tennessee.
Saints (-3½, 48½) at Titans
Things are clicking at the right time for New Orleans, as the Saints go for their fifth consecutive victory against a feisty Tennessee team. Sean Payton's club improved to 6-0 SU/ATS at the Superdome after beating the fading Lions, 31-17, moving their point total to 80 in the last two wins. The Titans return home following a 23-17 triumph at Buffalo, while cashing the 'under' for the sixth consecutive contest.
For all the success the Saints have seen at home, New Orleans are just 2-4 ATS away from the Big Easy, while going 3-8 ATS in its previous 11 road contests. Making matters dicey for Saints' backers is the 1-6 ATS road ledger since last November, including a 1-3 ATS mark this season. On the flip side, the Titans are rolling from an ATS standpoint by covering five of their last six games, while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three opportunities as an underdog.
Texans at Bengals (-3, 38)
Houston continued its Merry-Go-Round at the quarterback position as T.J. Yates led the Texans to an important 17-10 victory over Atlanta last Sunday. The Texans remained two games ahead of the Titans in the AFC South, while still jockeying for a potential first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bengals are happy to see a team that isn't named the Steelers or Ravens, losing each of their last three games to the top two teams in the AFC North. Cincinnati is still right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 7-5, tied with the Jets, Raiders, Broncos, and Titans for the last playoff spot.
The offense has taken many hits this season in Houston, most notably the injury to starting quarterback Matt Schaub. However, the Texans' defense has stepped up with Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams out by holding each of their last six opponents to 14 points or less (6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS). Cincinnati was held to its lowest point total of the season in last Sunday's 35-7 drubbing at Pittsburgh, while the Bengals go for their fourth home win of 2011 this week. The Bengals have won and covered at home as a favorite only once this season, coming back in Week 6 against the 0-12 Colts.
Eagles at Dolphins (-3, 45)
Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for only the third time this season, even though the Eagles have stumbled to a dreadful 4-8 record. Andy Reid's squad heads to South Florida after getting blasted in Seattle last Thursday night, 31-14, the fourth straight game that the Eagles were limited to less than 20 points. The last thing the Eagles want to see is a red-hot Dolphins' team, who bounced back from an 0-7 start to win four of their previous five games, including last week's 34-14 blowout of the Raiders.
Michael Vick returns to the Eagles' lineup this week after missing the last three games with a rib injury, replacing the ineffective Vince Young, who tossed eight interceptions and just four touchdowns in this stretch. The Dolphins are the club to back at this point from an ATS perspective, covering six consecutive games, including three straight as home favorites. Both these teams don't fare the same against interconference foes, as the Dolphins own a 6-2 ATS mark the last eight games against the NFC, while the Eagles are only 2-7 ATS the past nine games versus AFC opponents.
Falcons (-3, 47½) at Panthers
Atlanta hits the road once again after getting bounced at Houston last Sunday by a rookie quarterback. This time, the Falcons' defense will face the top pick from this past April's draft in Cam Newton, who has led the Panthers to consecutive road victories at Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. Mike Smith's club faces three opponents in the next four weeks who are out of playoff contention, so Atlanta needs to get the job done here to improve to 8-5.
The Falcons have not yet lost back-to-back games this season, while going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS off a defeat. Dating back to Matt Ryan's rookie season of 2008, as the Falcons are a sterling 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS coming off a loss, including a 4-1 ATS mark against division opponents. The Panthers have covered four of six home games, while cashing as substantial 'dogs in losses to the Packers and Saints. Atlanta has turned into one of the best 'under' teams in the league with eight consecutive 'unders,' while holding six of the last seven opponents to 17 points or less.
Bears at Broncos (-3½, 35½)
The Tim Tebow express keeps delivering wins, as Denver goes for its seventh victory in eight tries against a banged-up Chicago squad. Jay Cutler will not participate against the team that drafted him in 2006, while Matt Forte (who is three rushing yards shy of 1,000) is out for at least the next two games with an MCL injury suffered in last week's surprising loss to the Chiefs. The Broncos, meanwhile, have a chance to sit atop the AFC West race all by themselves with a victory and an Oakland loss at Green Bay.
Tebow may not put up the most attractive offensive numbers for a quarterback, but the former Heisman Trophy winner has led the Broncos to five straight covers, including three in a row on the final possession. However, Denver has struggled at Invesco Field against the number by posting a 1-4 ATS mark this season, with the lone cover coming against the Jets in Week 11. The Bears own a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog, including double-digit losses at New Orleans and Detroit.
SNF - Giants at Cowboys
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Only two division races are within one game heading into Week 14, including the upside-down NFC East. The Eagles were expected to run away with this division, but never got enough momentum to lead the NFC East. The next two teams in line, the Cowboys and Giants, are set to slug out to the finish, beginning with the first meeting of the season on Sunday night in Arlington.
Dallas (7-5) had its four-game winning streak come to a screeching halt in a 19-13 overtime setback at Arizona last Sunday. The Cowboys failed to cover for the third straight week as a favorite, as kicker Dan Bailey missed the game-winning field goal at the regulation. The Cardinals captured the victory on a Kevin Kolb 52-yard swing pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that resulted in Arizona's second home overtime triumph coming in walk-off touchdown fashion this season.
The Giants (6-6) are sinking fast following a 6-2 start as Tom Coughlin's squad dropped their fourth straight game to the Packers last Sunday, 38-35. New York managed to cover as seven-point home underdogs, ending a three-game ATS skid. However, the Packers sliced up the Giants' defense for 449 yards, including 369 passing yards and four touchdowns by reigning Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers. The 35 points put up by the Giants was the most all season, while Big Blue is now 4-0 ATS after scoring 28 points or more.
New York's defense has seen its share of injuries this season to many players, but allowing 87 points in the last two losses to New Orleans and Green Bay is beyond obscene. The Giants are facing a Cowboys' squad that has scored 23 points or less in four of their previous six contests, while Dallas has played seven straight teams that currently own records of below .500. The Cowboys aren't helping backers recently with a 1-5 ATS mark the last six games, including four non-covers in the 'chalk' role.
The road team won each meeting last season as both games were played under completely different circumstances. The Giants ended Tony Romo's season last October by breaking the quarterback's collarbone in a 41-35 shootout victory at Cowboys Stadium, while cashing as 3 ½-point underdogs. In spite of Romo's injury, the Cowboys shot out to a 20-7 lead thanks to a 93-yard punt return for a touchdown by Dez Bryant. The Giants would erase that deficit in a hurry by reeling off 31 unanswered points, including three touchdown passes by Eli Manning.
The Cowboys would return the favor three weeks later at Met Life Stadium by shocking the Giants as 11½-point 'dogs, 33-20. The victory put an end to a five-game losing streak, while giving Jason Garrett his first win as head coach of the Cowboys after replacing the fired Wade Phillips. The offense received a jolt from veteran quarterback Jon Kitna, who tossed three touchdown passes, as Dallas dominated New York in spite of holding the ball for just 22 minutes.
Divisional play isn't a strong suit for the Giants, who have compiled a 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS record against the NFC East since the start of last season. However, the Giants have cashed three of their past four games as an underdog inside the division, including two wins the last opportunities in Texas. The Cowboys aren't much better against divisional foes, owning a 2-7 ATS ledger the last nine games, while failing to cover in three NFC East contests this season (Washington twice and Philadelphia).
From a totals perspective, the Giants have hit the 'over' in seven of 11 contests, including four of six on the road. The Cowboys are helping 'under' bettors with a 7-5 'under' mark, as Dallas has seen four of six home contests finish 'under' the total.
Dallas is currently listed as a four-point favorite, while there are several sportsbooks offering the Cowboys at 3½. The total is set at 49, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on NBC.
Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 13 Recap
After grinding through 16 games last week, total players watched the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 in Week 13. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 97-89-5 (52%).
Bad Beats
Gamblers catch breaks from time to time, and so does the house but last week there were some tough losses for total players. (Closing number in parenthesis)
Miami-Oakland (43): The Dolphins led the Raiders 13-0 at halftime. Miami then exploded for 21 unanswered in the third quarter before Oakland closed with a 14-0 spurt in the fourth quarter to make the score (34-14) look reasonable and go ‘over’ the number.
Denver-Minnesota (37.5): Once again, Tim Tebow and the Broncos saved their best for the second-half. After the first 30 minutes, Denver trailed Minnesota 15-7. Then the fireworks began as gamblers saw a combined 45 points posted in the final two quarters.
New England-Indianapolis (48.5): This number looked inflated considering how bad the Colts’ offense has been lately. Indianapolis made a quarterback change and still trailed 31-3 going into the fourth quarter. If you had the hook (1/2 point) you could still give up two scores (14) and win on the ‘under.’ What happens? Indy scores 21 in the fourth and loses 31-24. Ouch…!
Seattle-Philadelphia (43.5): This would’ve been tough either way, considering Seattle led 17-7 at the break. However, the score was 24-14 late in the game and all signs pointed to an ‘under’ winner. Then, Vince Young tossed the late pick-six as the Seahawks ended with a 31-14 home victory. Wasn’t that bad, but definitely hurt some.
Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (43.5): This was the game that if you had the ‘over’ you were probably ordering up shots, asking the bartender for a menu, etc…Steelers led 28-7 at halftime and 35-7 early in the third. What happens after that? Close your eyes and what do you see? Exactly…35-7 Pittsburgh final.
Streakin’
Atlanta: The Falcons have seen the ‘under’ cash in eight consecutive games. Atlanta heads to Carolina this week and the early move has seen the total go from 48 ½ to 47. The Panthers’ offense (20.5 PPG) has been hit or miss at home this season. Atlanta did beat Carolina 31-17 earlier this season and the combined 48 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 49. That game did have chances to go ‘over’ yet the total is lower for the second time around.
Kansas City: The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ hit in seven straight and nine of their last 10 games. The offense (13.6 PPG) is a mess and the quarterback carousel goes back to Tyler Palko. As bad as the attack has been, KC has a solid defense. That unit will get a test against the Jets, who has put up 24 or more in five of their six home games. This is the second lowest total (36.5) on the board. New York has watched the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home.
Tennessee: The ‘under’ is on a 6-0 run for the Titans. Tennessee welcomes New Orleans and as expected you have a total hovering around 50. Make a note that the Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their last four, and the only game that went ‘over’ had a total of less than 50. The Titans have been getting their ground game going again and you could make a case that this is a throw-away game for New Orleans, since Green Bay and San Francisco will more than likely seal up the first-round byes. Saints have come up flat before, and another inconsistent effort on the road wouldn’t be shocking here.
Jacksonville: Even though the Jaguars saw their MNF battle against the Chargers go ‘over’ the number, the ‘under’ is still 10-2 on the season. Tampa Bay will make the short trip and rain is possible for this intrastate showdown. The early number was steamed from 39 to 41. Betting either way on this matchup is a toss-up.
Miami: The Dolphins snapped a 10-0 ‘under’ run last Sunday albeit luckily (See Bad Beats). Miami is averaging 27.8 PPG in its last five and the defense is only giving up 11.8 PPG. Philadelphia comes to town and QB Michael Vick will be stating. It’s fair to say that the Dolphins haven’t seen speed like this all season, plus the Eagles’ secondary is top-notch as well. The number opened at 44 but was spiked up to 45½.
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ almost went 2-0 in the primetime affairs last week, but the Saints’ offense took the second-half off in their 31-17 against the Lions. The Chargers and Jaguars had a great pace and easily went ‘over’ on Monday. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 16-11-1 (59%) in games under the lights this season. This week, we have two divisional games on tap.
New York Giants at Dallas: The Giants have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 on the road, while the Cowboys have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 at home. New York has surrendered 49 and 38 the last two weeks, but that came against explosive attacks in the Saints and Packers. The Cowboys’ offense has no identity lately, evidenced by 20 and 13 points their last two weeks against the Dolphins and Cardinals. With all that being said, you have a total hovering in the fifties, which makes you ask why? The last four meetings in this series have seen 64, 55, 76 and 53 combined points posted. Will you get that again? Tough to say but don’t be surprised to see some tight play-calling with the winner taking control of the NFC East.
St. Louis at Seattle: Not much to say here except that if you have some holiday shopping to do, then this could be the night to get it done. In case you’re wondering, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and four of the last five between these teams. Seattle beat St. Louis 24-7 on Nov. 20 and the closing number (40.5) was never threatened. The total for this week is listed between 36 and 37 at most shops.
Fearless Predictions
We lost 10 cents ($10) last week after going 2-2, yet we pissed off a few followers. On the season, we’re up $850 based on one-unit plays with our complimentary selections. And let me reiterate the word complimentary! As I always say each week, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Buffalo-San Diego 48
Best Under: Houston-Cincinnati 38.5
Best Team Total: Under San Francisco 21
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Buffalo-San Diego
Over 36 Philadelphia-Miami
Under 47 Houston-Cincinnati