NFL Betting News and Notes Week 14

Betting Recap - Week 13
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 13 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-4
Against the Spread 9-5
Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 10-4
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Lions (+6, ML +240) at Saints, 28-13
Chiefs (+5, ML +180) at Falcons, 29-28
Buccaneers (+3.5, ML +160) at Chargers, 28-21

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-13) vs. Rams, 26-10
Seahawks (-8 ) vs. Panthers, 40-7
Steelers (-6.5) vs. Giants, 24-14

Road Warriors

The Kansas City Chiefs posted a 29-28 victory on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, posting their fifth consecutive road victory and cover. Overall the Chiefs are 3-1 SU/ATS in their past four games, and the 'over' has cashed in each of their past two games after a six-game 'under' run. The Chiefs will play host to the Oakland Raiders on a short week at Arrowhead Stadium Thursday. The Chiefs rolled to a 26-10 victory in Oakland back on Oct. 16. Temperatures in Kansas City Thursday night are forecast to be in the upper teens with a slight breeze.

Tampa Bay Watch

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up another road victory against the San Diego Chargers, winning 28-21 as 3 1/2-point underdogs. That's four straight wins and covers for the Bucs overall, and they're now 5-1 SU/ATS in six games on the road this season. The Bucs will return home to face the New Orleans Saints for the first of two meetings in three weeks with their NFC South Division rivals. The Bucs have won and covered their past two home outings after opening the season 0-4 SU/ATS at home in their first four outings at the Ray Jay.

Total Recall

The 'under' had a slight 6-7-1 edge heading into the Monday night battle between the Indianapolis Colts-New York Jets. In three AFC games the 'under' went 2-1 (with one pending), while in four NFC games the 'over/under' split 2-2 with one pending. In seven AFC vs. NFC games the 'under' finished 2-4-1.

The two games with the highest totals on the board never lived up to the hype. Detroit-New Orleans (53.5) was a defensive slog, with just one quarter featuring a team scoring double-digit points.Two quarters featured nothing but field goals, and the Saints were scoreless in two of the four quarters. Not exactly the track meet everyone figured it would be. In the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh (50) game, not one team scored in double digits in any one quarter.

The Los Angeles Rams failed to keep up the 'over' trend of Pacific Time Zone teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. The New England Patriots posted a 26-10 win and the 'over' was never threatened. If you've been on that trend this season, there are a couple of better chances for it to cash in Week 14. The San Diego-Carolina and Arizona-Miami games could be high-scoring affairs.

The lowest total on the board, Denver-Jacksonville (38.5) was never really close to going 'over', and one of the scores for the Broncos was of the defensive variety. The next two lowest totals, both at 41.5, ended up going 'over'. Philadelphia-Cincinnati pushed over by the middle of the fourth quarter, while the same held true with a Ravens TD with 5:55 to go to make the score Baltimore 38, Miami 6.

The 'over/under' went 1-1 in two primetime games with one game left Monday between the Colts and Jets (48.5). Officially, the 'over' is 19-20 (48.7%) through 39 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Broncos RB Kapri Bibbs (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's game in Jacksonville due to an ankle injury and he was unable to return.

The Buccaneers lost WR Adam Humphries (concussion), TE Luke Stocker (ankle) and WR Cecil Shorts III (knee) to injuries in their win in San Diego.

Eagles WR Dorial Green-Beckham (rib) left Sunday's loss in Cincinnati due to a rib injury. He was sent for X-rays.

Patriots WR Danny Amendola (foot) was spotted on crutches with a walking boot on his right foot after the team's win against Los Angeles.

Redskins WR Jamison Crowder (hip) suffered a hip pointer in Sunday's loss in Arizona.

Looking Ahead

The Chiefs have won six of the past seven meetings straight-up against the Raiders, and Kansas City is 5-2 ATS during the span. They have also won and covered three straight at Arrowhead Stadium, turning around what was an ugly trend. In the previous seven meetings in Kansas City it was the Raiders covering. The 'over' is 4-2 in the past six in this series, but the 'under' is 17-6 in the past 23 overall meetings and 8-3 in the past 11 at Arrowhead.

The Texans and Colts do battle in a key AFC South Division battle at Lucas Oil Stadium next Sunday. The Colts frittered away a 23-9 lead with 7:04 to go back on Oct. 16 in Houston, as the Texans forced overtime and eventually won 26-23. Indy is 6-2 SU over the past eight meetings, and 5-1-2 ATS during the span. The 'under' has cashed in eight of the past 12 meetings.

The Eagles host the Redskins Sunday afternoon. The Eagles dropped a 27-20 decision Oct. 16, failing to cover for the fifth straight in this series dating back to Nov. 17, 2013.

The Bucs host the Saints in Week 13, looking for just their second win in the series in the past 10 games. The Bucs are 4-2 ATS in the past six in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in each of the past three. The under is also 12-3 in the past 15 in this series, including 7-1 in the past eight at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Opening Line Report - Week 14
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

The NFL’s Week 14 card is loaded with key divisional matchups. Here’s a look at the opening betting lines from Las Vegas, with insight from CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons. Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 10 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early line moves and differences among books also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 8

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3/-120)

The Westgate opened Kansas City -3.5 and moved to -3.5 (even) about 30 minutes later, but remained at the high end of the market. Most shops were dealing K.C. -3 (-120).

While the Chiefs were 2-point favorites in a 26-10 win at Oakland in Week 6, the modest adjustment to next week’s game at Kansas City is indicative of oddsmakers’ rising ratings on the Raiders.

But not everyone is buying Oakland yet. As quantitative handicappers remain dubious about the Raiders defense, most of the sharp money for Sunday’s Bills-Raiders game was on the road underdog, Simbal said.

“We thought we were in a good spot with Buffalo. They were dominating the game,” Simbal said. “But the Raiders offense proves to be able to come up with a big drive every time they need to. But they haven’t yet played a team like Kansas City on the road, so this is a big test.”

Sunday, Dec. 11

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

Salmons said three factors contributed to his shop posting Tennessee as the 1.5-point favorite against the defending Super Bowl champs: the Titans coming off a bye, the Broncos playing their second straight road game in the east, and the uncertainty at quarterback for Denver.

“That was our thinking. We didn’t want to write any Tennessee money with our original number,” Salmons said.

With Lynch, Salmons added, the Titans “are not near the team they are with (Trevor) Siemian.” The drop off from Lynch to Siemian is worth as much as 2 points to the betting line, according to Salmons.

The Broncos, as 3.5-point favorites, won at Jacksonville 20-10 on Sunday, but Simbal was not impressed.

“Denver had a pick-6 and their offense couldn’t get a first down if their life depended on it down the stretch of that game,” Simbal said. “They gave Jacksonville every chance to score. It just so happens that Jacksonville’s quarterback is Blake Bortles”

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Both clubs fell further into irrelevancy with losses on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

While most Vegas bet shops were dealing 4.5 for this AFC South contest, the Colts were available at -4 at William Hill on Sunday night.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at Cleveland Browns

This will be the fifth time in their last six games the Browns are home underdogs. In fact, they’ve been home dogs six times this season and are 0-6 ATS in those games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Buffalo Bills

The Westgate opened Pitt -1.5 and moved to -2.5, but CG Technology stuck at the smaller number Sunday night. If the number stays in this range, it will likely be too small for the public to resist laying. While public bettors did not play Pittsburgh as the 6.5-point favorite at home vs. the Giants on Sunday, Salmons expects them to be back on the Steelers next week.

“That’s a real low number for Pittsburgh as far as the way the public thinks,” Salmons said.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Miami was listed as a 2.5-point favorite at every book in Vegas on Sunday night, not a low enough number to entice action significant enough for a move to -3, despite the Dolphins' bubble bursting in a 38-6 loss at Baltimore.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-8.5)

The line on Sunday ranged from 7.5 to 9.5 for this sneaky-interesting NFC North betting matchup.

Bookmakers are adjusting their rating on Detroit, which has won seven of its last eight games.

“Especially after how their defense played (Sunday at New Orleans),” Simbal said. “The Saints generally are good for 24-plus at home easily. Today they scored 13.”

The Bears, meanwhile, may be 3-9 straight up this season, but they’re on a 4-1 run against the spread.

“I’ll give the Bears credit,” Salmons said. “They always come to play, no matter who they play, no matter how much they get down. They just play hard. They’re obviously not a good team, but they play hard all the time.”

Minnesota Vikings (-3/-120) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The first significant bet placed at CG on the Week 14 card was on Minnesota -3 (-120), but Simbal’s group left the number alone. The Westgate was offering Minnesota -3 flat on Sunday night.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5/-120)

The Westgate opened this AFC South tilt a pick ‘em, but the Bucs, winners of four straight games, were bet up quickly. Other shops were dealing Tampa -3 (even) and -3 (-105).

Washington Redskins (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

With the Eagles losing three straight and seven of their last nine, they opened as home dogs vs. the division rival Redskins. There were both 1s and 1.5s available on Vegas boards Sunday.

“This is more anti-Eagles,” Simbal said of the early number. “The sharper action has been fading the Eagles the past couple of weeks, so we’re trying to stay ahead of it.”

Even though the Redskins lost in Arizona on Sunday, Simbal anticipates public bettors also laying the points with the Redskins next week.

One thing bettors should be mindful of is that Philly has some quality wins at home this season (Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Atlanta).

Injuries, though, are a big concern for Philly, Salmons noted.

“I can see that line moving to Washington -2.5,” Salmons said. “It wouldn’t surprise me.”

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-1)

While most books have San Francisco as a 1-point favorite here, Coasts Resorts made the game a pick ‘em.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has won two straight, but it’s going to take more than beating Philadelphia and Houston to convince the betting market they should be favored against Seattle, even at Lambeau Field.

Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Falcons opened -4.5 at the Westgate and were bet up to -5.5

“The Rams are a team the public’s gonna bet against, especially a low number like that,” Salmons said. “The public looks at (anything less than a touchdown) as a low number.”

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Dallas looks to avenge its only loss of the season in its visit to the Meadowlands next Sunday night. In Week 1, the Cowboys fell to the Giants, 20-19. Dallas was a 1-point favorite in that game, meaning it’s a bigger favorite on the road against New York than it was at home. An 11-game win streak will do that.

Dallas, though, has failed to cash tickets the past two weeks, as 5.5-point faves at home vs. Washington and laying 3 at Minnesota last week.

“The number’s right for our purposes,” Simbal said of next week’s line. “Every single person that’s a public fan is going to lay the Cowboys, especially with how bad the Giants offense looked (Sunday at Pittsburgh). They love betting ‘em. … You gotta make them lay the field goal.”

Monday, Dec. 12

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Westgate drew underdog money at its opening number of Baltimore +9, prompting a move to 7.5 after about 40 minutes of wagering Sunday night.

“We tried to open high for teasers, and we saw it go down a little bit,” Salmons said. “The Ravens are playing great right now, so we kind of went with that one (moved the line because of action on one side). It made sense.”

He added, “You don’t need to stick out at 9 if everyone else is at 7.5.”

NFL Week 14 Picks and Leans ATS
Sportspic.com

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Trends to Consider

Oakland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to Kansas City.
Kansas City has produced 1 over and 7 unders in their last 8 home games.

Overview

Oakland won their 6th-straight game last Sunday with a 38-24 victory over Buffalo. They exploded for 29-straight points in the 2nd half after trailing 24-9 early in the 3rd quarter. QB Derek Carr was 19-35 for 260 yards and 2 TDs. He didn't commit a TO nor was he sacked but he was the victim of several dropped passes. The running game was huge as they produced 139 yards, 2 TDs and a 4.3 ypc average. The defense gave up a lot of yardage on the ground (212 and 3 TDs) but held the passing game to 170 yards. They also picked off a pass, recovered a fumble and had 4 sacks. Like they have been doing lately, they made big stops at crucial times.

Kansas City came away with a dramatic 29-28 win at Atlanta last week. After giving up the go-ahead TD with 4:32 left, SS Eric Berry picked off the 2-point conversion attempt and raced to the end zone to provide the eventual margin of victory. Berry also returned an interception 37 yards for a TD. The defense gave up 290 passing yards and a TD pass. They added 2 sacks. The run defense allowed 128 yards, a 4.3 ypc average and 2 TDs. QB Alex Smith was a sparkling 21-25 for 270 yards and a TD. He lost a fumble and was sacked once. TE Travis Kelce led the way with 8 catches for 140 yards. The ground game produced 123 yards on 22 carries but was aided by 2 big runs of a combined 78 yards on gimmick plays.

Pick

The Raiders were very short-handed on the offensive line in their earlier match up at home against the Chiefs and managed only 286 offensive yards in the 26-10 loss; Their second least yardage on the season. The Kansas City run game hasn't impressed this season with just four games of gaining over 100 yards and just one since losing starting LG Parker Ehinger (LW vs. ATL). Oakland does rank near the bottom of the league in that metric, but has played some of the better rush offenses which the Chiefs are not. Kansas City have road an opportunist defense in most games leading the league in turnover margin with a plus 14, but Oakland isn't far behind at +12 and with a healthier offensive line should avenge their earlier defeat. Take the Oakland Raiders +3

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers

Trends to Consider

San Diego has recorded 10 overs and 2 unders in their last 12 games as an underdog vs. NFC opponents.
The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
Carolina is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.

Overview

San Diego lost a see-saw battle with Tampa Bay last week, eventually falling 28-21. QB Philip Rivers threw for 225 yards and 2 TDs but also tossed 2 more picks, including one that was returned for a TD, his 3rd of the year. He was sacked twice. RB Melvin Gordon continued his fine season by gaining 84 yards on 17 carries. He scored a TD and led the team with 4 catches for 54 yards. The defense played pretty well, especially vs. the run. They held the Bucs to 81 yards on 30 carries. They surrendered 268 passing yards and a TD but picked off a pass and had a sack.

Carolina sunk to new depths in 2016 with a lopsided 40-7 loss at Seattle last Sunday. QB Cam Newton missed the first series due to disciplinary reasons and wasn't good when he got into the game. He went 14-32 for 182 yards and a TD pass. On the plus side, he wasn't sacked and he didn't commit a TO. WR Ted Ginn caught 5 passes for 81 yards and a score. The running game produced 89 yards on 21 carries. The defense was abused all day, giving up 294 passing yards and 240 rushing yards (3 rushing TDs). They did muster 3 sacks in an otherwise forgettable performance.

Pick

The Panthers have played much better football at home going 3-3 on the season with two of the losses by three points. That said, they come into this game dejected and with a lengthy injury report. Their offensive line is a mess and their secondary which has allowed the 29th completion rate is banged up with SS Kurt Coleman and CB Daryl Worley dealing with concussions. The Chargers have the early start as a negative and are also dealing with an extensive injury list, but this is a team who has given their all every week and has been every game in the fourth quarter with all losses being by one score. Carolina hasn't had much success passing in recent weeks averaging 203.1 yards per game over the last six and with their OL issues are unlikely to take advantage of San Diego's sub-par unit. The run game of the Panthers should be up against it against the Chargers third ranked run defense allowing a meagre 89.2 yards per game. Lean to the Chargers +1

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trends to Consider

Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Jacksonville.
The Vikings are 8-1 ATS following back-to-back SU losses when facing a non-divisional opponent.
Jacksonville is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.

Overview

Minnesota's slide continued with a 17-15 loss to Dallas on Thursday night. QB Sam Bradford was 32-45 for 247 yards and a TD pass. He was sacked twice and backup QB Shaun Hill was sacked once. WR Adam Thielen caught 7 passes for 86 yards but lost a crucial fumble. The Vikings ran for 87 yards on 19 carries. The defense gave up 140 rushing yards on 28 carries but played well vs. the pass (102 passing yards and 3 sacks). DE Danielle Hunter had 2 of the sacks. They also recovered 2 fumbles.

Jacksonville's nightmarish season continued with a 20-10 loss to Denver last Sunday. QB Blake Bortles' poor 2016 campaign continued as he finished 19-42 for 181 yards. He didn't throw a TD pass, lost a fumble, was sacked once and threw 2 picks, one of which was returned 51 yards for a TD. It was his 3rd pick-6 of the year. The running game performed well, gaining 154 yards on 38 carries. The defense handled rookie QB Paxton Lynch, holding him to 102 passing yards. They also sacked him twice. The Jaguars run defense held up, holding the Broncos to 104 rushing yards on 28 carries.

Pick

Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been a disaster with numerous pick 6's at the most inopportune moments in a game. That must be a real confidence crusher for Bortles and it also must be difficult for the team to have any motivation as they close out the season. That should give the Vikings a huge edge in motivation with the playoffs still on their radar. They also come into this game with extra rest and time to game plan and their defense is relatively healthy and has been impressive in recent weeks. The offense is a different story with a makeshift offensive line Minnesota has the 31st ranked yards per play offense averaging a paltry 4.7 yards and rank an even worse 32nd in rushing yards per game with 72.4 per game. Don't look for them to turn it around this week. Jacksonville has a sneaky good defense being one of four clubs that have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing per game. This game should be a repeat of last week's games for both teams making a call on the total an obvious play. Take the UNDER 39.5

NFL Week 14

Broncos (8-4) @ Titans (6-6) — Denver is 7-1 in non-division games this year, with only loss in Week 5 to Atlanta; Broncos are 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs- they’re 5-29 (17.2%) on 3rd down in two games Lynch started, 57-137 (41.7%) in Siemian starts. Titans won three of last four home games, scoring 34.3 pts/game; they’re +6 in turnovers in last three games, with zero giveaways. Denver won five of last six series games in ’13; this is their first visit here in five years. Tennessee is 1-5 in last six post-bye games; they were an underdog in only two of those six games. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 15-3 vs spread, 9-3 as underdogs. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 5-4 as favorites. Four of last five Bronco road games stayed under total; eight of last nine Tennessee games went over.

Chargers (5-7) @ Panthers (4-8 ) — Carolina lost three of last four games, is out of playoff race after dismal 40-7 loss in Seattle where QB Newton was benched for first series- sounds like they’ve got internal issues. Visitor won four of last five series games; Carolina is 4-1 in last five games vs San Diego- teams split two meetings here. Chargers are 5-1 vs spread this year in game following a loss; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with wins at Atlanta and Houston (both domes). Carolina is 3-3 at home, 2-4 as a home favorite. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-9 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 9-3. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charger games, 1-4 in Carolina’s last five home games. Philip Rivers started 52 games at NC State; this is first time he’s played in Charlotte since 2004.

Texans (6-6) @ Colts (6-6) — Short week for Indy after easy win Monday night in New Jersey. Colts are 1-3-1 vs spread this year in game following a win. Houston lost its last three games by 7-8-8 points, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points, with win at Jacksonville- this is their 4th road game in last five weeks. Colts are 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home favorites. Texans won first meeting 26-23 in OT in Week 6, game they trailed 13-3 at half- Houston is 6-23 vs Indy, 2-6 in last eight meetings. Texans are are 1-13 in Indy, losing 16-10 here LY. Home favorites are 3-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Under is 4-2 in last six Houston games, 3-0 in Colts’ last three home games.

Bengals (4-7-1) @ Browns (0-12) — Robert Griffin III is expected back at QB for Browns, who had last week off; Cleveland is 1-4-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14 points- they’re 6-5 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games. Bengals snapped 1-5-1 skid with rout of Eagles last week; they’re 1-5 in true road games, with only win 23-22 in Week 1 at the Jets. Cincy is 3-5 as a favorite this season; they won first meeting with Browns 31-17 (-9.5) in Week 7, running ball for 271 yards; total yardage was 559-352. Bengals won last four series games by average score of 32-8; they won last two visits here, 30-0/37-3. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC North games this year, 1-1 on road. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games, 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four.

Steelers (7-5) @ Bills (6-6) — Going to be a mixed crowd in Orchard Park for pivotal game in AFC playoff race. Pittsburgh won last five series games and nine of last ten, holding Buffalo to 11.2 pts/game in last five. Steelers won their last three visits here- their last loss in Buffalo was in ’99. Bills are 3-2 at home, 1-1 as home underdogs; they ran ball for 182.7 yds/game in three games since their bye, but they allowed 28+ points in four of last six games, have zero takeaways in last two games. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing 10 pts/game; they’re 3-3 SU/ATS on road and were favored in all six games. AFC North non-divisional road teams are 5-10 vs spread, 3-4 in favored. AFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-3 as an underdog. Over is 9-2 in last 11 Buffalo games, 2-9 in Steelers’ last 11.

Cardinals (5-6-1) @ Dolphins (7-5) — Arizona is 1-4 on road this year, giving up 32.8 pts/game in losses; their only road win is at 1-11 SF. Redbirds scored five TDs on nine drives LW; they’re 4-1-1 if they don’t turn ball over, 1-5 if they do. Miami had 6-game win streak snapped LW by Ravens; Dolphins are 5-1 at home with only loss to Titans; they’re 1-3 as home favorites and needed OT to beat 0-12 Browns at home. Arizona won last three series games after an 0-8 skid vs Miami; Cardinals are 1-4 in Miami with only win in ’04. Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 4-7 as underdogs. NFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-5 as favorites. Over is 4-2 in last six Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Dolphin games.

Bears (3-9) @ Lions (8-4) — Lions have a 2-game lead in NFC North; why does that make me nervous about them? Chicago (+3.5) upset Detroit 17-14 at home in Week 4, outgaining Lions 408-263; Detroit’s only TD came on a punt return. Bears’ win snapped 6-game series skid vs Lions, with last three series losses all by 6 or less points; Chicago lost its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Bears are 0-6 on road this season, 1-4 as a road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points. Last week was first time this year; Detroit didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions won/covered last four games, are 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorite, winning by 1-3-3-7-3 points at home. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 17-17-1 vs spread. Under is 6-0 in Lions’ last six games, 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven.

Vikings (6-6) @ Jaguars (2-10) — Coach Zimmer is back at practice this week, with patch over his eye; Minnesota lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start- they lost last two games by a combined five points. Vikings lost their last four road games. Jax lost its last seven games (2-5 vs spread); they’re 0-5 at home, 0-4 vs spread in last four, with losses by 4-2-17-3-10 points. Jaguars are -16 in turnovers (2-18) in their last eight games- they’ve allowed four TD’s on offense/special teams in last four games. Vikings won four of five series games, winning 26-23 in OT in last meeting four years ago. Minnesota won its only visit here 30-12 in ’08. NFC North non divisional road teams are 8-10 vs spread, 1-4 as favorites. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 2-6 as underdogs. Under is 9-3 in Minnesota road games, 3-2 in Jags’ last five games.

Saints (5-7) @ Buccaneers (7-5) — New Orleans is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road. New Orleans is 0-5 when it scores less than 25 points. Tampa Bay has won four straight road games for first time ever, but they’re 2-4 at home. Bucs won/covered last four games overall, allowing only 14.3 pts/game the last three weeks. Tampa is 7-5 despite being favored in only two games (1-1) this season. Saints lost three of last four games, are 2-3 on road, with four of five games decided by 6 or less points. NO won eight of last nine series games, with last four decided by 7 or less points; Saints won last four visits here, by 7-2-3-7 points. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.

Redskins (6-5-1) @ Eagles (5-7) — Washington won last four meetings with Philly, with average total in last five series games, 54.8; Redskins won first meeting this year 27-20 (+3) in Week 6, with only Eagle TDs scored by defense/special teams. Skins outgained Philly 493-239, ran ball for 230 yards- they’re 6-5 in last 11 visits here. Eagles lost seven of last nine games after a 3-0 start; Philly is 4-1 at home, with only loss to Packers two weeks ago- their last game with a positive turnover ratio was in Week 6. Washington allowed 31-31 points in losing its last couple games; they lost last three road games, by 3-5-8 points. Opponents are 21-39 on third down vs Washington the last three weeks. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 10-2 in Washington games, 0-5 in Eagle home games.

Jets (3-9) @ 49ers (1-11) — Imagine losing 11 games in a row and being favored in the 12th game, and favored for second week in a row? 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games and they were underdog in 10 of those 11. SF had 5 passing yards in snow in Chicago LW; Bears had 184 in same weather, on same field. Long trip west for Jets on short week after 41-10 beating they took from Colts Monday night. Petty gets 2nd career start at QB here; he was 19-32/163 in his first start, a 9-6 home loss to Rams. Jets are 2-4 on road, 1-4 as an underdog; their wins were in Buffalo/Cleveland. Gang Green is -7 in turnovers the last four weeks. 49ers are 10-2 in this series, winning 34-0 in last meeting in ’12; Jets are 1-4 in five visits here, with one win in 1983. Under is 6-2 in last eight Jet games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.

Seahawks (8-3-1) @ Packers (6-6) — Home side is 10-1 in last 11 series games; Seahawks lost last six visits here, with last win in Wisconsin in 1999. Seattle was held to 3-6-20-5 points in games they didn’t win; they scored 26+ points in their wins. Hard to envision Packer defense shutting down former Badger QB Wilson. Seahawks are 2-3-1 on road, beating Jets/Patriots. Green Bay is 4-2 at home, losing to Cowboys/Colts; they won last two weeks, holding Eagles/Texans to 13 points each. Seahawks haven’t allowed a second-half point in their last two games. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 2-4 as favorites. NFC North home teams are 9-7, 3-1 as underdogs. Under is 4-2 in both Seattle road games and Green Bay home games.

Falcons (7-5) @ Rams (4-8 ) — LA is in freefall, losing seven of last eight games, with only win 9-6 against Bryce Petty-led Jets. Second home start for Goff; it rained during his first one, when Rams blew 10-0 lead over Dolphins with 5:00 left. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win 9-3 over Seahawks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they’ve allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in last five games. Falcons allowed 24+ points in six of last seven games; curious to see if Goff can move chains against this defense. Atlanta won five of last six series games, winning last three by 4-17-7 points; average total in last three series games is 54.7. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-11 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 4-12 vs spread, 0-5 at home. Over is 10-2 in Atlanta games, 1-4 in last five Ram games.

Cowboys (11-1) @ Giants (8-4) — Dallas won its last 11 games (9-2 vs spread) since losing to Giants 20-19 in season opener, just second loss in last seven games with New York. Cowboys won four of last six visits here; four of their last five wins against the Giants were by 5 or less points- average total in last eight series games is 51.8. Cowboys are 6-0 on road on road with three wins by 5 or less points- they’ve got only one takeaway in last five games (-2). Giants had 6-game win streak snapped LW; New York is 5-1 at home, with only loss 29-27 to Redskins. Giants are just 13-38 on third down their last three games. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four games, 4-1 in last five Dallas road games.

Ravens (7-5) @ Patriots (10-2) — Baltimore is 4-1 since its bye week, allowing 13.6 pts/game, but the four wins were all at home; Ravens are 2-3 on road with wins at Browns/Jaguars- their road losses are by 4-8-10 points. Baltimore is only 7-5 but they’re tied for first in AFC North and is 4-0 in its divisional games. Patriots are 7-1 with Brady at QB; six of the seven wins are by 11+ points- they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year. New England is 9-3 in last 12 series games, 7-1 in regular season games (2-2 in playoff meetings); Ravens lost seven of last nine visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 2-6 on road. AFC East favorites are 8-5, 4-5 at home. Under is 5-1 in Ravens’ last six games, 3-0 in last three Patriot games.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 14
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 39.5)

Vikings' early defensive dominance vs. Jaguars' first-half failures

Plenty has gone wrong for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, from the shoddy quarterback play of Blake Bortles to the non-existent running game to a defense that is only now showing the improvement experts gushed about in the preseason. But one of the most alarming areas in which Jacksonville has struggled this season is its inability to produce any first-half offense - a problem that should be exposed Sunday against one of the top first-half defenses in football.

The Vikings have shown plenty of cracks in recent games thanks in large part to the offense proving incapable of staying on the field with any regularity. But you still have to consider Minnesota one of the stingiest teams in the NFL, particularly when it comes to opponent scoring in the first two quarters: the Vikings are allowing just 9.8 first-half points, tied with Detroit for the ninth-best mark in the league. They allowed just seven first-half points to powerhouse Dallas last week before ultimately falling 17-15.

Expect that average to get even better after a Week 14 encounter with a Jacksonville offense that has been off the rails for the majority of the season. The Bortles-led Jaguars have scored a pitiful 6.9 first-half points per game in 2016, easily the worst mark in the league; the Miami Dolphins (7.8 ) are the only other team in the NFL below eight. Combine the Jags' early struggles with the Vikings' ability to harangue the quarterback, and Jacksonville fans might want to consider waiting until halftime to show up.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Allen Robinson

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 43)

Bengals standout TE Tyler Eifert vs. Browns' tight end ineptitude

The last thing the Bengals want is to be the team that let the lowly Browns end their 12-game losing streak. So expect quarterback Andy Dalton and Co. to do whatever it takes to keep Cleveland off-balance on offense and forced into long stretches on defense. A big part of successful executing that strategy will be utilizing tight end Tyler Eifert, who has a major mismatch against a Browns defensive unit that just can't figure out how to defend the position.

Eifert came into his own as a significant red-zone threat last season, and has carried that momentum over into 2016. After missing the first six games recovering from injury, the 6-foot-6 behemoth has slowly returned to form, racking up 338 receiving yards and three scores in six games. More significantly, he has won over the fine folks at Pro Football Focus, who have him graded at 84.9 for the season - the sixth-best mark at his position, and only slightly behind his 2015 grade of 85.5.

He has a terrific matchup this week against the Browns, whose defensive grades, in many cases, can best be described as "below average." Three of the team's four defensive lineman in the nickel package boast grades below 45, while their two safeties - Tracy Howard (50.5) and Ed Reynolds (62.0) - don't grade out much better. The Browns have allowed the most touchdowns (nine), the fifth-most catches (72) and the sixth-most receiving yards (782) to tight ends. Eifert should have a field day.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Tyler Eifert

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (+3, 46.5)

Seahawks' struggles with 3rd down D vs. Packers' drive extension skills

It's going to be a chilly one at Lambeau Field, where the Seahawks and Packers do battle this weekend. But, while the temperature - expected to dip into the high-teens later in the game - will certainly draw plenty of attention, bettors should also consider one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Seattle's defense ain't what she used to be, and the Packers will look to exploit one major weakness that would allow the home team to dominate the time of possession.

In addition to many other defensive accolades, the Seahawks were one of the league's top drive stoppers in 2015, allowing teams to convert third downs just 34.98 percent of the time. That rate was the seventh-best in the NFL, and had a major role in Seattle's ability to build big leads and keep opponents down. That isn't the case this season, with Seattle ranking a stunning 27th in opponent third-down conversion rate (42.86 percent) entering Sunday.

That could be a major problem at Lambeau, with the Packers coming into this one with the second-best third-down conversion percentage in football (47.85 percent). Green Bay has been even deadlier over its last three games, converting 51.22 percent of its third-down opportunities. If Aaron Rodgers can extend drives against visiting Seattle - and keep that Seahawks defense on the field - it could be enough to give the Packers the edge.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Jordy Nelson

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (-7, 45.5)

Ravens' rambunctious ways vs. Patriots' trademark discipline

The Patriots - and more specifically, quarterback Tom Brady - have traditionally done well when facing defenses ranked No. 1 in the league. And with home-field advantage also working in New England's favor, the sledding might be tough for visiting Baltimore this Monday night. But the biggest impediment to the Ravens being competitive at Foxboro might be their penalty issues - something the Patriots haven't had to deal with this season.

The penalty picture has been an ugly one for the Ravens so far in 2016; they rank third overall in accepted penalties with 99, and third in accepted yards with 866. A whopping 27 of those flags have come in the last three weeks, totaling 263 yards. They've gone over the 100-yard mark in penalties three separate times this season, and lost all three games. And they've incurred 414 penalty yards on the offensive side of the ball, which must drive quarterback Joe Flacco batty.

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots find themselves on the opposite side of the penalty spectrum, ranking 28th in the league with just 74 accepted flags. They've committed just 30 fouls on the defensive side of the ball, and have been flagged five or fewer times on five occasions this season. If they stay disciplined, they should have no trouble winning the flag war with the Ravens - and that could make a big difference come Monday.

Daily fantasy watch: New England D/ST

Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 13 Recap

For the second consecutive week, total bettors saw a stalemate (7-7-1) posted on the board. Most of the results were never in doubt with exception to the Arizona-Washington ‘over’ ticket (48½) that saw 38 points scored in the second-half after just 16 in the first 30 minutes. Through 13 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 97-93-1 this season.

Weather

There were two games affected by the conditions last week in Green Bay and Chicago and sure enough, both of those contests went ‘under’ the number rather easily. For Week 14, there are expectations for snow in Buffalo, Cleveland, New York and New England. Be sure to stay abreast with the latest updates.

Divisional Matchups

Since 2010, the NFL decided to backload the regular season schedule with divisional games with the intention of creating more meaningful matchups in the final weeks. Including the Raiders-Chiefs matchup on Thursday, Week 14 has seven divisional games and five of them have playoff implications.

Houston at Indianapolis: In the first meeting between the pair on Oct. 16 from Houston, the Texans rallied for an improbable 26-23 overtime win against the Colts and the ‘over’ (48) was very fortunate to cash. Including that ticket, the ‘over’ has cashed in the last four between the pair in Houston. I mention those results because we’ve seen nothing but ‘under’ tickets in Indianapolis, seven straight to the low side. Houston hasn’t broken 20 points at Indy since 2008 and this year’s Texans squad is ranked last with 13.2 points per game on the road.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams and the lone ‘over’ winner came earlier this season in Week 7 when Cincinnati was gifted a couple scores by Cleveland. The Browns are off the bye and Robert Griffin III is getting the start at quarterback. He should help an offense that’s averaging 9.8 PPG in their last four games (4-0 under) but I wouldn’t bank on it. The Bengals defense has been sneaky good in their last four games (17.5 PPG). The total opened 43½ and has dropped to 41½ as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at Detroit: The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 in Week 4 at Soldier Field and the ‘under’ (48) was never in doubt. I talked about Detroit’s underrated defense last week and it dominated New Orleans 28-13 in the Superdome, a rare feat these days. I can’t imagine Chicago doing much at Ford Field and the Lions could very well see the ‘under’ cash in their seventh straight game.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: This is a very tricky total to handicap and the early money leaned to the ‘under’, dropping the opener from 52 to 51. The Saints are always going to be a solid ‘over’ look based on their weak defense and offensive ability. However, New Orleans is facing a surging Tampa Bay team that is only allowing 13.3 PPG in its last four games, all wins too. For what it’s worth, the Buccaneers have held the Saints to 23, 19 and 24 in the last three meetings. I feel the number is a tad inflated and I’d hold off this Sunday and reassess the rematch battle between the pair in Week 16 from New Orleans.

Washington at Philadelphia: The Redskins have been one of the best ‘over’ wagers (10-2) this season but bettors should be aware that all five home games for the Eagles have gone ‘under’ the number. Philadelphia started the season 4-2 behind great defensive play and a mistake-free offense. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the defense has hit a wall and has allowed 26.6 PPG in their last six games. Despite the poor numbers, the total has gone 3-3 during this span because the offense has broken down under rookie QB Carson Wentz. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in its three divisional games this season, which includes the Week 6 matchup between this pair from FedEx Field.

Coast to Coast

The Rams and Patriots easily went ‘under’ the number last week and that was just the third time this season that a West Coast team saw the low side connect while visiting the Eastern Time Zone. Overall, the ‘over’ still holds an impressive 13-3 (81%) mark this season and is 24-8 (75%) the last two seasons.

Week 14 has two clubs from the West Coast playing in the Eastern Time Zone and they’re a combined 9-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season.

Arizona at Miami: The Cardinals have been a great ‘under’ bet at home (6-1) and perfect ‘over’ team (5-0) on the road. Why? Arizona is allowing 30.4 PPG outside of the desert compared to 14.1 PPG at home. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 at home but this total (43½) seems a little low based on these tendencies and that may have me passing here. Plus, the Dolphins have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 in their last 10 versus NFC foes and that includes a 2-1 mark this season.

San Diego at Carolina: The Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 outside of Qualcomm Stadium and they’ll be facing a Carolina defense that surrendered 75 points in its recent two-game road trip to the West Coast. Playoffs are unlikely for either club, which means the pride factor come into play. San Diego has been in every game and the offense (27.8 PPG) is ranked third in the league. The Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0-1 in three games versus the NFC South this season and this week’s total (49) is expecting more points. Make a note that the Panthers have been better defensively at home (21 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘under’ go 4-2 at Charlotte.

Hit the Road

We touched on a Road System total angle in Week 12 and it’s in play again on Sunday.

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

Unfortunately this system lost a few weeks ago in a Monday Night Football matchup as Green Bay defeated Philadelphia 27-13 in its third consecutive road contest and the ‘under’ (47½) connected.

This week, Washington will visit Philadelphia for a divisional matchup (see above) and the Redskins will be playing their third consecutive game outside of FedEx Field.

Including this loss, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 39-20-1 (66%) the past 12 seasons but it’s just 2-3 the last five situations.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ posted a 2-1 mark in the primetime matchups last week. Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 21-19-1 in night games which includes the past result on Thursday between Oakland and Kansas City. Make a note that the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight midweek matchups and is 9-4 on the season.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants: The Giants defeated the Cowboys 20-19 in Week 1 and the ‘under’ (48) connected rather easily. Prior to that result, the ‘over’ was on a 7-0 run in this series. A lot has changed since the opener and the rematch has a total hovering around 47. The Cowboys have won 10 straight behind a ground-and-pound offense and steady defense, which has produced a 7-5 lean to the ‘under.’ New York’s offense (20.4 PPG) has struggled all season and it just can’t stay on the field, ranked 31st in time of possession. The Giants remain in playoff contention because the defense (19.8 PPG) has been very solid and that unit has helped the ‘under’ go 9-3. Bettors should note that the SNF affair has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and is 10-4 to the ‘over’ this season. I don’t necessarily like to play the due factor but we’re certainly ready for a slugfest.

Baltimore at New England: This total opened 45½ and has dropped to 44½ as of Saturday morning at a couple major offshore books. I expect the number to go lower, especially with poor weather looming. The Ravens and Patriots have both seen the ‘under’ go 8-4 this season and even though they have capable quarterbacks that can move the football, I expect a tight affair on Monday. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in the last five meetings but that was when both clubs had a slew of healthy offensive weapons on the field, something that will be missing this week. The Patriots have played in three night games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1.

Fearless Predictions

We caught a break with the teaser and an early line last Sunday but still wound up losing 20 cents ($20) and the deficit is nearing five units ($450). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Los Angeles 45

Best Under: Cincinnati-Cleveland 41

Best Team Total: Over 19½ Los Angeles

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Baltimore-New England Under 54
Dallas-New York Under 56
Arizona-Miami Over 34½

Pick Six - Week 14
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 13 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 34-40 SU, 32-43-1 ATS

Texans at Colts (-6, 46½)

Houston
Record: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 7-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Texans continue to stumble away from NRG Stadium as their road record dropped to 1-5 following last Sunday’s 21-13 setback at Green Bay as 6 ½-point underdogs. Houston has been held to 13 points or fewer in four of five road defeats, while quarterback Brock Osweiler has yet to throw for more than 270 yards in a game this season. The Texans go for the crucial season sweep of the Colts to grab the tiebreaker inside the AFC South as Houston rallied past Indianapolis, 26-23 in overtime back in Week 6.

Indianapolis
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Colts embarrassed the Jets on Monday night, 41-10 to pull back to .500 and into a three-way tie for first place in the division alongside the Texans and Titans. Indianapolis will be looking to win consecutive games for the second time this season, but the Colts are listed at their highest favorite number with their previous high chalk mark coming against the Bears in Week 5 as four-point favorites. The Colts have cashed the UNDER in three straight games at Lucas Oil Stadium, but each of those totals closed at 50 or higher.

Best Bet: Houston +6

Steelers (-2, 47) at Bills

Pittsburgh
Record: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 9-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers have come alive of late by winning three straight games, while holding opponents to a total of 30 points in those victories. The Giants were the latest victim to fall to Pittsburgh, 24-14 at Heinz Field last Sunday as the Steelers cashed as 6½-point favorites. Pittsburgh owns a 3-3 SU/ATS mark in the role of a road favorite this season, while going for its sixth consecutive win over Buffalo dating back to 2001. The Steelers are making their first trip to Buffalo since 2010 when Pittsburgh pulled out a 19-16 overtime triumph as 6½-point favorites.

Buffalo
Record: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 9-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Bills were on their way to a third straight victory at Oakland after grabbing a 24-9 third quarter lead last Sunday. However, the Raiders ran off 29 consecutive points to smoke the Bills, 38-24 and send Buffalo to its fourth loss in the last six contests. Buffalo has eclipsed the OVER in all five home contests this season, while putting up at least 25 points in each of those games. The Bills have participated in high-scoring affairs off a loss, going 4-1 to the OVER in this situation.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2

Cardinals (-2, 43½) at Dolphins

Arizona
Record: 5-6-1 SU, 4-8 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Cardinals travel east looking to snap a three-game road losing streak. Arizona is still outside the NFC Wild Card race, but picked up a crucial home victory over Washington last Sunday, 31-23 as 2½-point favorites. Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, the third game this season the Arizona quarterback has put up three touchdown passes. The Cardinals haven’t fared well on the highway this season by losing four of five road games, as all five away contests have sailed OVER the total.

Miami
Record: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Dolphins return home following a 38-6 beatdown at Baltimore last week to snap a six-game winning streak. Miami has taken care of its business at home this season by compiling a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS record at Hard Rock Stadium, as the Dolphins have eclipsed the 27-point mark in all five home victories. The Dolphins have dropped each of their last three meetings against the Cardinals as Arizona is making its first trip to Miami since a 24-23 triumph back in 2004.

Best Bet: Miami +2

Redskins (-2, 46½) at Eagles

Washington
Record: 6-5-1 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

Two weeks ago, the Redskins owned a 6-3-1 record and were in a prime position to be a Wild Card team in the NFC. Following losses at Dallas and Arizona the last two weeks, Washington has slipped to seventh place in the NFC, one half-game behind Tampa Bay for the second Wild Card spot. The Redskins are currently on a five-game OVER streak, while allowing 31 points in each of the past two defeats. Washington knocked off Philadelphia as a three-point home underdog in Week 6 by a 27-20 count, the fourth straight win by the Redskins over the Eagles since 2014.

Philadelphia
Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 1000/1

The Eagles began the season at 3-0, but have stumbled to a 2-7 record the last nine games. Philadelphia dropped a 32-14 decision at Cincinnati last week, as rookie quarterback Carson Wentz threw a career-high three interceptions. The Eagles’ offense has been grounded of late by scoring 15 points or fewer in the last three games, but Philadelphia returns home where it owns a 4-1 SU/ATS mark at Lincoln Financial Field. In two opportunities as a home underdog this season, the Eagles have put together a pair of terrific defensive efforts by holding the Steelers and Vikings to a total of 13 points in a two double-digit wins.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +2

Seahawks (-3, 46½) at Packers

Seattle
Record: 8-3-1 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Seahawks knocked the Packers out of a potential Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago with a walk-off victory in overtime. Lightning couldn’t strike twice for Seattle last season at Green Bay, as the Seahawks erased a 10-point deficit but ultimately lost, 27-17 as 3½-point underdogs. The Seahawks are currently rolling by winning four of their last five, while routing the Panthers in a double-revenge spot last Sunday night, 40-7 as eight-point favorites. Seattle has been an inconsistent team on the road by compiling a 2-3-1 mark, while cashing only once in four tries in the away favorite role.

Green Bay
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Packers aren’t normally a home underdog in December as this is just the third time they are getting points at Lambeau Field in this month since 1991. Since Aaron Rodgers took over at quarterback for Brett Favre, the Packers have received December points at home once in 2013 against the Steelers, but Rodgers didn’t play in a 38-31 loss. The Packers look to begin a December surge after picking up their second straight win last Sunday over the Texans, as Green Bay owns a 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS mark at home. After Green Bay allowed at least 31 points during each loss of a four-game skid, the Packers’ defense has stepped up by yielding 13 points in each of the past two victories.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3

Saints at Buccaneers (-1½, 51)

New Orleans
Record: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Saints step up when they are listed as an underdog, plain and simple. New Orleans has covered in all six opportunities as a ‘dog this season, including outright home victories over Carolina and Seattle. The Saints are coming off their worst performance of the season in last Sunday’s 28-13 home defeat to the red-hot Lions as 6 ½-point favorites. Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees was intercepted three times and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season. New Orleans has seen plenty of success at Raymond James Stadium by winning each of its past four visits to Tampa since 2012.

Tampa Bay
Record: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Buccaneers are on the doorstep of taking sole possession of first place in the NFC South with a victory on Sunday paired with an Atlanta loss at Los Angeles. Tampa Bay continued its road domination in last Sunday’s 28-21 comeback victory at San Diego to improve to 5-1 away from Raymond James Stadium. However, the Bucs have stumbled to a 2-4 home mark with both victories coming in the underdog role against the Bears and Seahawks. Since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback for Tampa Bay last season, the Bucs have compiled a 2-5 SU/ATS record in the favorite role.

Best Bet: New Orleans +1½

SNF - Cowboys at Giants
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Cowboys have rattled off 11 straight wins after a season opening loss with a pair of remarkable rookies guiding the offense and they'll get a chance to avenge their only loss Sunday night against the Giants at a chilly Metlife Stadium. The Giants (8-4) closed as 1-point favorites in the 20-19 Week 1 win at Dallas, but it's the Cowboys (11-1) who come in as 4-point favorites this time around.

Following the Cowboys only loss, they went on to cover the spread in nine straight games as QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, behind the NFL's best offensive line, elevated both their names near the top of the list for MVP consideration. Prescott has thrown 19 TD passes while offering only two interceptions and has compiled a 108.6 QB rating. Elliott leads the league with 1,285 rushing yards and has Eric Dickerson's single season rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards in sight.

As the Cowboys power rating has risen, the last two weeks we've seen that the escalated rating may have hit the ceiling as they won, but failed to cover against Washington and Minnesota. The question you have to ask yourself before betting Sunday's game is whether the Cowboys spread is too high for the third straight week.

The Giants come off a lackluster 24-14 loss at Pittsburgh which halted a six game win streak where they covered five times. The high-priced defense has shown signs of toughness, but overall this team really doesn't do much well. They're 31st in rushing yards (77.5 ypg), 26th in total offense (327.4) and 24th in points scored (20.4). They've turned the ball over 21 times while forcing only 16, yet they still manage to overcome all their deficiencies and win ball games.

The Giants best feature is simply getting the ball in the hands of WR Odell Beckham Jr. who has caught 75 passes for 1,015 yards and eight TD's. He's a game changer and will have to make big plays for the Giants to win Sunday night.

WHO THEY BETTING?

"We're getting lots of action on the typical teams like we do every week, beginning with the Cowboys," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We opened the Cowboys -3 and we've moved through -3.5 and up to -4; I think we're the only 4 out there and we've got some sharp play on the Giants, but they were just playing the number."

Scucci moved the Cowboys to -4 on Thursday afternoon and even with those wagers taking the Giants, he didn't move the number just because he knows he's still going to be needed the Giants once Sunday night comes around with all the extended parlay risk. Station Casinos and William Hill also made the move to -4.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada has seen 87 percent of their cash and tickets written on the Cowboys.

TOTAL VALUE?

The total is an interesting look with the all books in town at 47 or 47.5 considering it's going to be 30 degrees with a good chance of snow. However, the biggest factor with the total -- wind -- is only supposed to get up 5 mph. Up until the Week 1 game when the Giants won 20-19 at Dallas, these two teams had gone Over in seven straight meetings.

ROBERTS' RATING

The Cowboys have had the most accelerated rating this season and they've moved up to the top of my NFC charts, tied with Seattle, and 1.5 points behind New England.

HYPOTHETICAL SUPER BOWL TEAM

If Dallas makes the Super Bowl, they're such a popular public team that you could see the sports books open them as the favorite against New England. Both Seattle and Dallas would surely be favored over any other AFC team. If you believe that to be true, then you might see some value in the Westgate SuperBook's current Super Bowl line with the AFC -3 against the NFC.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

New England is 2-to-1 favorites, but close behind is Dallas at 7-to-2 and the risk on them at books all across Las Vegas. America's Team is packing some serious weight on their wagon. The Giants are 30-to-1, which is around the same odds offered before the playoffs started in each of their last two Super Bowl wins.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with Dallas and the Over has gone 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.

TRENDS

-- Dallas is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four December games.
-- Dallas is 3-11-2 ATS in its last 16 game in Week 14.
-- Dallas stayed Under total in last five December games.
-- NY Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in last five after a loss.
-- NY Giants Over total 9-4 in last 13 home games.

NEXT WEEK

The national audience gets a treat next week with the Buccaneers-Cowboys game being flexed to Sunday night on NBC. Yes. Dallas fans will love it, but plenty others will like it because the Bucs are playing some great football right now. Dallas is 9.5-point home favorites for that one. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Lions, a number that looks too high and one you probably won't get by next week.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

For the first time all season we've been given outstanding matchups in all three isolated night games.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Oakland Raiders 21-13 at home on Thursday and the remaining night games are taking in the largest Week 14 NFL action so far.

"We're getting lots of action on the typical teams like we do every week, beginning with the Cowboys," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We opened the Cowboys -3 and we've moved through -3.5 and up to -4; I think we're the only 4 out there and we've got some sharp play on the Giants, but they were just playing the number."

Scucci moved the Cowboys to -4 on Thursday afternoon and even with those wagers taking the Giants, he didn't move the number just because he knows he's still going to be needing the Giants once Sunday night comes around with all the extended parlay risk. Station Casinos also made the move to -4.

Every other book in Las Vegas is using some variation of -3.5, including William Hill's operation which has seen 87 percent of their cash and tickets written on the Cowboys. Dallas has failed to cover the number in its last two games after reeling off nine straight covers.

The total is an interesting look with the all books in town at 47 or 47.5 considering it's going to be 28 degrees with a 20 percent chance of snow. However, the biggest factor with the total -- wind -- is only supposed to get up 5 mph. Up until the Week 1 game when the Giants won 20-19 at Dallas, these two teams had gone 'over' in seven straight meetings.

The other big game has New England at home without Rob Gronkowski getting a visit from the suddenly hot Baltimore Ravens, who feature the NFL's No. 1 ranked defense.

"I'm a little surprised that we're seeing so much two-way action with ticket counts here," Scucci said. "We opened high like we always do with New England and the line has been dropping ever since."

William Hill and the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook opened with the largest number at -9, the Stratosphere opened -8 and everyone else opened -7.5, but it's been the same story everywhere as most have the Patriots have some variation of -7 (EV). The South Point, which deals only in flat numbers, made the first plunge in town to -6.5 on Friday afternoon.

The last three times the Ravens have been getting +7 or higher against the Patriots, they covered all three. Two of those were in the playoffs and they won one of them straight up on their way to the Super Bowl.

"The Ravens have the defense to keep them in the game," said Scucci, who noted that this is going to be a big teaser game with New England.

William Hill books have seen 81 percent of their cash taken on the side choosing the Ravens and 55 percent of the tickets written as well. This is a major shift from what we've seen all season with the public and their Patriots who have covered mostly inflated numbers in nine of 12 games. The public believes what they saw last and Joe Flacco finally had himself a good game in a 38-6 wipe out of the Dolphins.

Baltimore has covered four of its last five, but the four covers were at home. They've gone 0-3 straight-up and against-the spread in their last three road games.

Week 14 Moves to Watch - per Bob Scucci:

Arizona at Miami
"Sharps have been all over the Cardinals. We opened Miami at -2.5 and we've flipped it to Arizona -1.5."

NY Jets at San Francisco
"The 49ers have been bet up to -3 with most just betting against Bryce Petty starting for the Jets." The game opened pick 'em.

Minnesota at Jacksonville
"They're betting against Jacksonville, again, and taking the Vikings (-3.5)."

Atlanta at Los Angeles
"The Falcons have been bet up from -6 up to -7 just because the Rams with Jared Goff appear to be barely a notch above the 49ers and Browns."

William Hill's Public Plays

Ticket counts are the best indicator to see what the masses are playing with their parlays, which are also the games that can collectively hurt the books most if they all cover. It used to be a good idea to bet against the public and be on the side the books need most, but that hasn't been the case this season with the public faring extremely well with their plays in six of the past seven weeks.

Here's a look at the five most bet upon teams that William Hill is staring at with ticket counts:

1) Falcons 94% at Los Angeles
2) Redskins 94% at Philadelphia
3) Steelers 92% at Buffalo
4) Vikings 89% at Jacksonville
5) Bengals 88% at Cleveland

Weather Update

Besides Metlife Stadium on Sunday night, weather could play a role Monday night at New England with 33 degrees expected and a heavy chance of rain (5 mph wind). Lambeau Field gave us a fun looking game last week with snow and its possible again Sunday with Seattle in town. It'll be 28 degrees with 90 percent chance of snow in the morning and 10 mph winds. The total in that game is 46 and should be expected to drop considerably.

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions (8-4, 8-4 ATS) eye a fifth straight win when they host division rival Chicago Bears on Sunday. That impressive streak along with hosting the division basement dwellers the Lions have been pegged 7.0 to 8.0 point favorites depending on locale.

As always, laying a touchdown in a division game is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case the numbers add up well enough to conclude Lions are the best choice. Leos' are ridding a 5-0 ATS streak in front of the home audience, a 5-1 ATS stretch at home vs Bears, 6-1 ATS record at home vs a sub .400 team. Additionally, the Bears are a money-burning 1-5 ATS in unfriendly territory, 1-9 ATS facing a division opponent following a win the previous effort.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh (7-5 SU/ATS) has won three straight both straight-up and against the spread after overpowering the New York Giants 24-14 last week while Buffalo (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has lost four of six (1-5 ATS) after squandering a 24-9 lead in a humbling loss at Oakland.

Buffalo is always dangerous in their own back yard. But, injury-depleted Bills will be hard-pressed containing Roethlisber tossing 5 TD last three and or Bell grinding out 3 TD,s on the ground during the win streak. Bills inconsistent offense solving Steelers resurgent defense yielding just 10.0 points/game over the current streak is just another nod towards Pittsburgh needing a win to keep pace in the AFC North.

Look for Steelers to keep their playoff hopes alive while dampening shaken Bills' chances at ending a 16 year non-post season skid. Consider laying the -2.5 currently being offered at Bet365.com knowing Steelers are 5-1 SU/ATS in the series, 6-3 ATS down the stretch under coach Mike Tomlin (L4 games) and that Bills are a money-busting 0-3 ATS off a double digit loss, 3-7 ATS down the stretch..