NFL Week 15
Jaguars (4-9) @ Falcons (8-5) - Special game for Atlanta coach Smith (Jax DC from 2003-7), but he had chest pains after Sunday’s win and spent extra night in Charlotte, so unsure if game planning on short week was affected. Falcons are 4-2 at home this year (losing to Packers/Saints), 1-2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 4-14-6-10 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 29-6-4-10-4 points; they scored 41 unanswered points in home win over Bucs Sunday- only one of their last six losses was by more than 10 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, splitting pair here, with average total 32. AFC South road underdogs are 8-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional play; NFC South home favorites are 7-4-2. Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under total; both Jaguar games since Del Rio got fired went over.
Cowboys (7-6) @ Buccaneers (4-9) - 9 of 13 Cowboy games this year were decided by 4 or less points or in OT, including last four, with Pokes losing last two weeks in agonizing fashion; now they visit freefalling Bucs squad that lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), giving up 41 unanswered points to bad Jaguar team last week. Dallas won 11 of 14 series games, winning last three by combined score of 85-40; Bucs scored 16 or less points in four of last five series games. Cowboys are 2-4 on road, with both wins coming in OT (@ 49ers/ Redskins); they’re 2-7-1 as a favorite this year, 0-2-1 on road. Bucs are 2-6 as a dog, 1-1 at home. Pokes split last four visits here, winning 34-21 in last visit here, in ’09 opener. NFC East favorites are 6-13-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-4-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 6-8, 2-2 at home. Four of Bucs’ last five home games stayed under total.
Redskins (4-9) @ Giants (7-6) - Washington lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points, with wins at St Louis/Seattle; Skins (+3) upset Giants 28-14 in season opener, getting pick-6 in 3rd quarter that turned tide in even game, ending Giants’ 6-game series win streak. Big Blue was 1-10 on 3rd down in that game. Redskins lost six of last seven visits here, losing last three by 9-6-24 points; they scored 14 or less points in five of last seven series games. Giants are 1-3-1 as home favorite, 3-3 SU, losing last two at home to Eagles/Packers- their comeback win in Dallas last week ended 4-game skid, put them atop weak NFC East, where underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in divisional games this season (under 5-3). Last four Washington games, four of last five Giant games went over the total.
Packers (13-0) @ Chiefs (5-8) - Firing coaches in midseason rarely helps, just creates more work for remaining job-hunting assistants with holidays around corner, so Haley’s departure makes beating unbeaten Pack even dicier proposition. Last true road game of season for Green Bay team that is 4-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 7-10-11-6-7-12-3 points (five of seven foes are playoff contenders). In their last six games, Chiefs have three offensive TDs on 66 drives, with one TD scored on Hail Mary; they’ve scored total of 22 points in last three games at Arrowhead, where they’re 2-4 this year, but 3-0 as underdog, with home losses by 34-28-7-4 points, and wins over Vikings/ Chargers. Over is 6-1 in last seven Packer games, 2-9 in Chiefs’ last 11 contests. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 22-22-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Saints (10-3) @ Vikings (2-11) - Red-hot New Orleans won/covered last five games, are tied for #2 slot in NFC that comes with cherished first round bye, but 49ers own tiebreak, so pressure on Who-Dats to keep winning here. Saints lost last five visits here, with last visit in ’05- their last win in this building was in ’93; NO is 4-3 on road, 2-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 13-3-3-5 points, with losses to Pack/Rams/Bucs. Minnesota lost last five games (1-3-1 vs spread) but got spark from mobile QB Webb last week (had 65-yard TD run) in controversial loss at Detroit. Five of Vikings’ last seven games were decided by six or less points- Minnesota is 5-3-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 at home. NFC North underdogs are 6-4, 1-1 at home. NFC south favorites are 11-9-2, 4-5 on foreign soil. Over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight games, 1-4 in Saints’ last five.
Seahawks (6-7) @ Bears (7-6) - Chicago 0-3 with Hanie at QB after being Tebow-ed in Denver last week, blowing 10-0 lead with 3:15 left; in last two games, Chicago has one offensive TD on 27 drives, with 16 3/outs, going 2-26 on 3rd down. Bears are 4-2 as favorite this year, 3-2 at home. Seattle travels east on short work week after lethargic MNF win; Seahawks won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 7-2-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 3-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 16-24-3-10, with wins at Giants/Rams. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Seattle losing 35-24 in playoffs here last January, after Hawks had upset Chicago here during season. NFC North favorites are 12-10 vs spread, 8-7 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-7-1 vs spread. Seahawks’ last three games all went over the total.
Dolphins (4-9) @ Bills (5-8) - Impossible to endorse visitors from South Beach in potentially frigid western NY after they canned Sparano Monday, after Fish had covered six of seven games, winning four of last six SU; Dolphins are 1-5 on road, 4-2 as road underdogs, with three losses by 3 or less points. Miami (-2) hammered Bills 35-8 at home four weeks ago, blocking punt for TD, also scoring on TD drives of 23-4 yards. Series has been swept in nine of last 12 years; Fish lost five of last six visits here, but also beat Bills in Toronto during that time. Free-falling Buffalo lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); after running ball for 138+ yards in five of first seven games, Bills averaged just 80 rushing yards over last four weeks and converted just 17 of last 54 on 3rd down. Bills are 3-2 at home, but their last home win was October 9. Under is 10-1-1 in last dozen Miami games.
Panthers (4-9) @ Texans (10-3) - Not sure how first-time division champ Texans will react to prosperity after being patted on back all week by locals; they had celebration at stadium when team returned home from Cincy last Sunday. One motivating factor to keep playing is first-round bye that they’re currently tied for. Houston won/covered last seven games- they’re 4-1 as home favorites, winning at Reliant by 27-7-10-18-7 points, with only loss to Raiders. Carolina is 4-0 when it allows 20 or less points, 0-9 when it allows more; they’re 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-14-14 points. Panthers haven’t beaten team with winning record this season. Texans won only two series games, 14-10/34-21, with last meeting in ’07. AFC South home favorites are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South road underdogs are 4-6. Last four Panther games went over.
Titans (7-6) @ Colts (0-13) - Rookie Locker likely to get first NFL start here for Titans, vs awful Indy squad that is 1-5 vs spread at home, losing by 8-3-4-24-14-8 points at Lucas Oil Field; Colts got backdoor covers as double digit road dogs last two weeks, after being 0-7 vs spread in previous seven games. Titans (-9) beat Indy 27-10 at home in Week 8, blocking punt for TD in game where Colts outrushed them 158-96 and outgained them by 78 yards for game, but scored only 10 points on four trips to Titan red zone. Tennessee is 2-3 as favorite this year, all at home; they’re 3-3 at home, winning by 18-27-6 points. Home underdogs are 10-10 vs spread in divisional games, 2-6 in AFC, 0-2 in AFC South. Last seven Tennessee games stayed under the total. Colts allowed 141+ rushing yards in four of last five games, good news for Chris Johnson’s fantasy owners.
Jets (8-5) @ Eagles (5-8) - Philly is 8-0 all-time vs Jets, with five of last seven wins by 7+ points, but this is just second visit here since ’78 by Gang Green (0-4 in Philly, losing by average of 23-12), which won last three games overall, and is in thick of playoff race, while Iggles need lot of help to get in. Jets are 7-0 when they score more than 24 points, 0-4 when they score less, 1-1 when they get exactly 24; Eagles allowed 13 or less points in all five wins, 21+ in all eight losses. Philly is 0-4 vs spread the week following a win this season; they had consecutive wins, but had Week 7 bye in between; Eagles are ghastly 1-5 at home this year, crushing Dallas in Week 8; they’re 3-7 vs spread when favored. NFC East home favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 6-4. Four of Jets’ last five games went over total.
Bengals (7-6) @ Rams (2-11) - Cincy’s playoff hopes took jolt with last-second loss to Texans last week, their 4th loss in last five games, now they can take frustrations out on awful St Louis squad that is on short work week after dismal 30-13 loss Monday night. Five of Cincinnati’s seven wins are by 7+ points- they’re 2-3 as favorites, 4-3 SU on road, with wins by 10-10-22-7 points, losing to Broncos-Steelers-Ravens. Rams haven’t covered any of their 11 losses, losing at home by 18-30-7-17-3 points, but they did somehow upset the Saints at home. In six games since beating Saints, Rams have four offensive TDs on 72 drives, with 11 turnovers/28 3-outs. Rams won three of last four series games; Bengals are 0-2 in this dome, with last visit in ’03. Over is 3-0-1 in Bengals’ last four games. Remember, bad teams don’t have much home field advantage.
Lions (8-5) @ Raiders (7-6) - Suh expected back for Detroit in battle of heavily-penalized, contending teams hungry for wins; Lions were +6 in turnovers last week and still almost lost at home to Vikings, which would’ve been unheard of. Detroit is 4-2 on road; they’re only team to beat Tebow, winning 45-10 at Denver in Week 8. Raiders got smoked 34-14/46-16 on road last two weeks, getting outscored 44-0 in first half; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 with Palmer at QB, beating Cutler-less Bears last home game. In last three games, Lions have 265 penalty yards, their opponents 121. Lions lost three of four visits here, winning last one 36-21 in ’07. Oakland is 6-1 with 2+ takeaways, 1-5 with less; Lions turned ball over 2+ times in only three of 13 games. Detroit won last two series games by 10-15 points, after losing six of first eight meetings. Three of last four Oakland games went over the total.
Patriots (10-3) @ Broncos (8-5) - Tebow is 7-1 as starter, winning last four games by 4 or less points in inexplicable fashion reminiscent of George Blanda in ’71. New England is 10-3 despite allowing 20+ points in nine games; they’re susceptible to passing attacks, which means they’re safe here for first three quarters. Patriots won last five games, getting backdoored by Orlovsky/ Grossman last two weeks; they’re 5-7 as a favorite, 3-3 on road, winning away games by 14-12-21-18-7, losing at Bills/Steelers. Last time teams met was in ‘09, Denver won in OT, Josh McDaniels strutted around Invesco like Hulk Hogan and Tebow was still in Gainesville; that was Denver’s fourth win in last five series games. Pats lost last three visits here by 8-14-3 points- their last win here was in ’03. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-5 vs spread; AFC West home underdogs are 4-3.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 15 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
You know it’s getting late in the NFL regular season when the league starts scattering games all over the weekly calendar. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. This week, we’ve got contests on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. To the poolies cheat sheet we go:
Jacksonville at Atlanta (-11)
Why Jaguars cover: Relatively speaking, this team on fire from a scoring standpoint. After failing to break 20 points all season long, the Jags blew up for 41 consecutive points in Sunday’s 41-14 rout of Tampa Bay. Atlanta has cashed just once in the past five weeks (1-3-1 against the spread) and that required a comeback last weekend against Carolina.
Why Falcons cover: Even after their 41-point outburst, the Jags still sit 28th in league in scoring, at 14.8 ppg. Atlanta’s 7-2 ATS (against the spread) in its last nine December starts and 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 against losing teams. The Jags are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 against winning teams.
Total (42.5): Before last week’s game vs. Carolina, Atlanta was on tear of eight straight unders. Jacksonville has gone over in each of the last two weeks but is still 10-3 to the under on the season. The Jags have watched the total go low in six straight on the highway.
Dallas (-7) at Tampa Bay
Why Cowboys cover: The Cowboys are playing the Bucs, who just gave up 41 points to the awful Jaguars. And the Cowboys have no room to mess around against Tampa after stinging losses to the Cardinals and Giants. At home, the Bucs are in ATS slumps of 6-20 overall and 5-16 when getting points.
Why Buccaneers cover: Well, if they really like Raheem Morris as coach, it would serve them well to show it. The Bucs have dumped seven in a row SU (straight up), going 1-6 against the number over that span. They could be playing for Morris’ job here, so perhaps that’s some incentive. Dallas is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 when laying points and 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 in December.
Total (47): Tampa has given up 24 points or more in every game of its seven-game slide, including 35 or more four times. The over is 18-8 in Dallas’ last 26 overall.
New Orleans (-6.5) at Minnesota
Why Saints cover: They are hotter than a supermodel on the sun, winning and covering five in a row and six of their last seven. Minnesota, meanwhile, has lost five in a row straight up (1-3-1 ATS) and seems to have a QB quandary – rookie Christian Ponder was yanked after a dismal two-plus quarters against Detroit, and Joe Webb nearly pulled off a stunning comeback.
Why Vikings cover: They are 5-1 ATS in the last six of this rivalry and the Saints tend to play down to the level of competition, at 3-11 ATS in their last 14 against losing teams.
Total (50.5): Total has gone low in four of the last five for New Orleans, but the Saints average 31.9 ppg (second in NFL), and the over is 6-1 in Minny’s last seven at home. The over is also 5-1 in the last six Saints-Vikes matchups.
Carolina at Houston (-6.5)
Why Panthers cover: This team is better than its 4-9 SU record suggests. They’ve lost six games this season in which they’ve led or been tied in the fourth quarter. Once Cam Newton figures out how to stop throwing more INTs (16) than TDs (15), they’ll be the real deal. Carolina’s 15-6 ATS in its last 21 December outings.
Why Texans cover: Even with rookie T.J. Yates at QB, they’re still winning and covering, going 6-0-1 ATS during their current seven-game SU run. This team is contending for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so it has plenty of incentive. The Panthers are on pointspread dives of 4-12 when catching points and 3-9 against winning teams.
Total (45.5): Something’s got to give here. Carolina’s on over runs of 5-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 as an underdog and 7-3-1 on the highway. Houston is on under surges of 5-1 at home and 6-2 as a chalk.
Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City
Why Packers cover: During their eye-popping 19-game SU win streak, they’ve cashed 14 times. That includes four covers as double-digit favorites this season. The Chiefs are in disarray after firing coach Todd Haley on Monday while the Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 roadies and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in December.
Why Chiefs cover: Bad as they are, they’re still a good underdog. They are riding ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 as a home pup, and 12-4 when getting more than 10 points. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in the last six as a road chalk of more than 10 points.
Total (46): The Chiefs have scored 10 points or fewer in six straight games and the under has cashed in six of the last seven for K.C. Conversely, the Packers average a league-best 35.8 ppg, with over hitting in six of their last seven games. An average Green Bay outing wouldn’t leave much work for K.C. to reach the over.
Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Why Seahawks cover: They’re hot, and Chicago’s not. The Seahawks have won four of last five SU and five of last six ATS. Running back Marshawn Lynch has 109 yards or more in five of last six games, along with six TDs in that stretch. The Bears have lost three straight without QB Jay Cutler.
Why Bears cover: They’re dying for a win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five when laying points. The Seahawks are riding ATS skids of 16-34-2 on the highway and 8-20-1 as road pups.
Total (35.5): Lots of over trends for both teams. Plus, the over has cashed in six overall and the last four in Windy City.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis
Why Titans cover: They’d covered five of six before Sunday’s 22-17 loss to New Orleans and they nearly got the outright upset. Winless Indy (4-9 ATS) has failed to cash in its last four at home and the last four inside AFC South. The Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in this rivalry.
Why Colts cover: Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck’s status is uncertain due to calf injury. Plus, Indy has covered two in a row, following seven consecutive pointspread setbacks. The Colts are also 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs. winning teams.
Total (41): Under has been big for both teams lately, hitting seven straight for Tennessee and five of six for Indianapolis. This division rivalry is littered with unders – 11-2 in the last 13 overall and 6-0 in the last six in Indy.
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
Why Redskins cover: As bad as Mike Shanahan’s troops are, losing eight of last nine SU, they’ve at least been a little better lately against the spread by covering three of the last four. They fell just short of pushing Patriots to overtime last weekend. The Redskins also like division play, cashing five of the last six in the NFC East.
Why Giants cover: After knocking off Dallas on the road last week, they are due for a good game at home, where they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five. Tom Coughlin’s squad will also be looking for some payback after getting ripped 28-14 at Washington in the season opener.
Total (46.5): The score has played under in seven of the last eight ‘Skins-Giants meetings at the Meadowlands. The over is on runs of 4-0 for Washington and 4-1 for New York.
Miami at Buffalo
Why Dolphins cover: They’ll be inspired by firing of coach Tony Sparano. They covered six in a row before falling to Philadelphia last week. They were due for a little letdown.
Why Bills cover: The Bills have dumped six in a row SU (1-5 ATS) and are due for a decent game at some point.
Total: The under has been the big play for Miami all season, going 10-2-1. The under has also cashed in 10 of Buffalo’s last 11 in December and 8-3 in the team’s last 11 at Orchard Park.
Cincinnati (-6) at St. Louis
Why Bengals cover: Their playoff hopes are dangling by a thread, but this is a good team well overdue for some good luck. They’ve lost four of their last five, but those losses were all by one score or less against playoff-bound teams. St. Louis is the league’s worst team ATS (2-11).
Why Rams cover: Seriously, all the Rams can hope for is that Cincy’s current 0-4-1 ATS funk continues.
Total (38.5): St. Louis averages a league-low 11.8 ppg and the under has cashed in seven of the last 10. However, Cincy’s on several over runs including 8-2 overall and 5-0 as a chalk.
Detroit (-1) at Oakland
Why Lions cover: Defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh returns from two-game suspension and Detroit needs him to continue its push for a NFC wild-card spot. The Raiders were pummeled over the last two weeks (at Miami and at Green Bay) by a combined score of 80-30. The Raiders are 20-43 ATS in the last 63 in December.
Why Raiders cover: Last week’s loss to the Packers notwithstanding, Oakland’s generally a good bounce-back bet. The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in the last nine off a SU loss and 14-4 ATS in the last 18 off an ATS loss. Detroit’s 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 as a road chalk.
Total (47.5): The over is on a 7-1-1 run in the Lions’ last nine roadies, 4-0 in the Raiders’ last four overall. The over is also 7-3 at home for Oakland and 5-1 with the Raiders catching points at Coliseum.
New England (-6) at Denver
Why Patriots cover: At some point, the Broncos’ good fortune will go up in smoke. New England is the best team Denver has faced during the Tebow Mania craze, and the Pats have covered eight of their last 11 road games.
Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow has led Denver to seven wins in eight games. The Broncos have covered in six of those – five from the underdog role. So this game sets up perfect for the Mile High Messiah. The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying points, 1-4 ATS in the last five vs. the Broncos, and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Denver.
Total (45.5): In Tebow’s eight starts, Denver has scored 18 or fewer points. But New England averages 30.5 points per game and a defense that’s allowed 20 or more points nine times this year. The over is 12-4 in the Pats’ last 16 roadies and in the Broncos’ last 16 at home.
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (-3)
Why Jets cover: Clinging to sixth and final playoff spot in AFC, they need this game. They’ve won their last three while cashing in their last two outings. Philly is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home.
Why Eagles cover: There’s no pressure here with a playoff sport out of the question, so they can play fast and loose. All the pressure is on the Jets, and Philly’s talent is far better than its 5-8 SU and ATS record indicates.
Total (44): If Jets are playing the over is in play. The Jets have played over in all three games during their current upswing. The Jets also have the over on streaks of 23-8 overall, 13-3-1 with New York set as a pup, and 9-2 with Gang Green pegged as a road underdog.
Cleveland at Arizona (-7)
Why Browns cover: They’re not very good, but they have covered in three of their last four. That’s about all I’ve got in their defense.
Why Cardinals cover: Upended 49ers last week to continue a nice roll in which they’ve won five of six SU and six of seven ATS. Cleveland’s averaging just 13.7 ppg (30th) and could be without QB Colt McCoy (concussion).
Total (37.5): Cleveland’s scoring impotence has led to under streaks of 4-1 overall and 8-3 when the Browns are catching points.
Baltimore (-1.5) at San Diego
Why Ravens cover: This team is gunning for No. 1 seed in AFC playoff chase and has won four in a row by average of more than 11 points per game. The Bolts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
Why Chargers cover: They still have a sliver of chance in AFC West, but they’ve got to win outright. San Diego’s a worthy underdog, with ATS runs of 22-9-3 when getting points and 5-1 as a home pup.
Total (44.5): Qualcomm Stadium is the home of unders lately, with total staying low in 10 of the last 11. The Ravens’ defense is yielding just 15.5 ppg (third).
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Why Steelers cover: Like Baltimore and New England, they’re battling for the No. 1 seed. So this West Coast trip is a huge one for Pittsburgh, which has cashed in the last four following an ATS loss.
Why 49ers cover: Despite upset loss at Arizona last week, they are still No. 1 in the NFL at 10-2-1 ATS and really want to beat out the Saints for the No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. It won’t hurt to be at home, where San Fran has won and cashed in five straight and six of seven this year. In fact, Jim Harbaugh’s troops are 17-6-3 ATS in the last 26 at home. Plus, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is hobbled, and star defender James Harrison may be serving a one-game suspension.
Total: The Niners’ defense is No. 1 in the league, yielding a meager 14.0 ppg. Pittsburgh is No. 2 allowing just 15.2 ppg.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The game of the week on paper appears to be Monday night’s key matchup with Pittsburgh (10-3) traveling to San Francisco (10-3). However, if letting the people speak by volume of tickets written on a single game, New England’s (10-3) visit to Denver (8-5) is the overwhelming choice as the must-see matchup of Week 15.
And it doesn’t help the Las Vegas sport books have the Steelers-Niners battle off the board due to the status of Pitt quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle. Roethlisberger is officially listed as ‘probable’ for the game, although Lucky’s sports books -- the one book that has had the game up all week -- currently has a number up as though Big Ben is extremely doubtful.
“From everything I’m reading in the Pittsburgh papers, I’m booking it as if Roethlisberger is not going to play,” said Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro who hails from Pittsburgh. “I’ve seen this play out with him before and not practicing on Wednesday is the first major indicator he won’t be playing. I just told our guys to move quick on the game as more information becomes official.”
Lucky’s opened with the 49ers as 1-point favorites and currently have them at -3 (-120).
Should Roethlisberger not be able to go, the Steelers would have Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon as back-up options which would further take some luster off the match-up.
The 49ers have lost two of their last three games coming in, while the Steelers are currently on a four game winning streak and have won eight of their last nine.
“This is a big game for the 49ers and wrong time of the year for them to start slumping,” said Vaccaro.
Now, back to the Broncos and Patriots. You’d be hard pressed to not have some kind of emotion one way or another on this game because it’s been crammed down our throats all week if watching any sports show or listening to talk radio. The Tim Tebow-fever has swept the nation and people can’t seem to get enough which is why program directors of all kind are keeping the topic on a continual cycle.
The biggest question this week is why the Patriots are 6½-point road favorites. The Wynn Resort opened the Patriots -5½ and were bet up the ladder with large money a couple times to get to their current number, which answers the why part.
But think about it, just last week the Patriots were -7½ at Washington, a team that had lost seven of eight games coming in. This week they are now laying -6½ at the home of a team that has won seven of eight.
The public is currently taking the Patriots at a 3-to-2 ratio in ticket counts at the betting windows with the feeling that the Patriots and QB Tom Brady will be a major upgrade in talent from the teams Denver has been beating. Even with the Patriots allowing a league worst 416 yards per game, the Brady factor is what is driving the bets here.
However, Denver hasn’t been too kind to Brady over his career. It’s surprising to see that he is only 1-6 against the Broncos while having dominated just about every other team in the league. The Broncos edge hasn’t just been during the Brady reign, either, as Denver has won 17 of the last 21 meetings.
There are a couple of pivotal games in the NFC East this week beginning with the Cowboys (7-6) who travel to Tampa Bay (4-9) on Saturday for a night game. On Sunday morning the Giants (7-6) play the Redskins (4-9) and then later in the day the Jets (8-5) play the Eagles (5-8). As hard as it may be to fathom, the Eagles still have a chance at winning the division with a few scenarios going their way, which begin with having Dallas and the Giants both losing.
We almost have a Week 17 type of situation here where the Eagles will know what they’re playing for by the time their game starts. Should the Cowboys and Giants both win, it’s all over for the Eagles regardless of what they do Sunday. Unlike Week 17 teams in the playoff hunt, the Eagles have known for some time that their hopes were minimal for about the last two months. Having it become a reality finally shouldn’t be too much of a sting to their performance.
The Eagles opened as -1½-point favorites and are now -3 (EVEN). The Cowboys opened -6½ and are now -7 and the Giants have stayed steady at the Wynn at -7 (EVEN) with the Hilton having the low number in town at -6½.
The Buccaneers are an interesting look this week just because of a similar situation they were in earlier this season. In Week 5, the 49ers pounded the Buccaneers 48-3. The following week the Saints came to town as six-point favorites and Tampa Bay won 26-20. Last week Jacksonville put up 41 and we’ll have to see if the Bucs respond similarly against Dallas with the same type of spread against them as the Saints game.
The Wynn opened the Packers (13-0) at -14 (EVEN) when almost everyone else opened -13½. The Wynn is currently -13½ while the number is steady at -14 at most shops. There won’t be too many Chiefs (5-8) tickets out there this week, but there is a little question attached to bettors’ minds before making a bet on the Packers due to what happened to wide receiver Greg Jennings (knee) last week. How far ahead will the Packers be before resting their key players to avoid injury? And once they do call the dogs off, does it set up an opportunity for a back-door cover by the Chiefs with a meaningless late touchdown?
Vaccaro doesn’t think all that will matter just because it’s the Chiefs.
“The first thing to consider in this game before we start talking about all the other Packers intangibles is how bad the Chiefs are. They’ve scored 45 points in their last six games and now they have a coaching gone. That team is a mess right now,” said Vaccaro.
“As for the Packers, I think they’re going for it all and embracing the undefeated thing and wouldn’t expect them to change that despite Jennings getting hurt last week. I could see this game quickly going from a 14-3 game to 31-3 rather quickly like what happened to the Raiders last week.”
The Raiders (7-6) opened as one-point favorites against the Lions (8-5), but Detroit money quickly moved the Lions to one-point road favorites.
The Dolphins-Bills game has been off the board at just about every sports book because of the status of Matt Moore who is likely to miss with a concussion. J.P. Losman took all the snaps in Wednesday’s practice for the Dolphins. Lucky’s is the only book in town to have it on the board and offer the game at PICK ’EM.
Tip Sheet - Week 15
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 15 card involves plenty of teams on the playoff bubble that need victories to help their cause. This includes New England, who looks to lock up a first-round bye in the next three weeks, as the Patriots head to Denver for a showdown with the AFC West-leading Broncos. Meanwhile, the red-hot Seahawks need several breaks to return to the postseason, as Seattle heads to the Windy City against a struggling Chicago squad.
Seahawks at Bears (-3½, 35½)
These two teams met in the divisional playoffs this past January, as Chicago eliminated Seattle, 35-24 to advance to the NFC Title Game. The Bears (7-6) are basically in a win-or-go home scenario this Sunday, looking to snap a three-game skid after getting knocked off in overtime at Denver, 13-10. Seattle (6-7) has turned into one of the league's best pointspread teams this season with an 8-4-1 ATS record, while winning four of its last five games to pull within a game of .500.
The key to Seattle's resurgence has been a stingy defense, allowing 17 points or less in this current 4-1 stretch. Also, Pete Carroll's team owns a 7-1 ATS mark as an underdog the last eight opportunities to cut the Wild Card deficit to two games with three to go. The Bears have gone backwards since the thumb injury to quarterback Jay Cutler, scoring just 33 points during this three-game losing streak. Chicago is a solid 'over' play at Soldier Field this season with a 5-2 'over' record, but is coming off an 'under' in their last home game against the Chiefs.
Lions (-1, 48) at Raiders
Oakland is falling apart at the seams following consecutive road blowout losses at Miami and Green Bay, as the Raiders (7-6) return to the Black Hole to host the Lions. Detroit (8-5) controls its playoff destiny at this point after holding off Minnesota, while the Lions took one step closer for the franchise's first winning season since 2000. The Raiders, meanwhile, attempt to sure up their defense for one final run at an AFC West title.
Hue Jackson's club has allowed 80 points in each of the last two defeats, while getting outgained in the yardage department in each of the previous four games. The good news for the Silver and Black is the Raiders' 8-3 ATS record off a loss since last season, as Oakland is 5-1 to the 'over' in its last six games overall. The Lions will get DT Ndamukong Suh back in the lineup following a two-game suspension, as Detroit has allowed 27 points or more in each of its previous five contests.
Patriots (-6½, 46) at Broncos
The matchup many people will keep an eye on this Sunday involves a pair of streaking clubs meeting in the Mile High city. New England (10-3) is riding a five-game winning streak, while Denver (8-5) is going for a seventh consecutive victory as Tim Tebow helped engineer a fourth straight win when trailing at the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter. The Broncos are a bettors' dream recently with a 6-2 ATS ledger in Tebow's eight starts, including five straight covers in the underdog role.
New England's offense continues to roll after holding off Washington last Sunday, 34-27, the fifth consecutive game the Patriots have eclipsed the 30-point mark. The Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three trips to Denver, including a 20-17 overtime loss as three-point road favorites in 2009 (when the Broncos wore those atrocious brown and mustard throwback jerseys). The Broncos' defense is shutting down opponents during this stretch by cashing the 'under' in four of the last five games, but have faced two inexperienced quarterbacks (Caleb Hanie and Christian Ponder) in the previous two victories.
Jets at Eagles (-2½, 44)
When the schedule came out in April, this game was expected to be a pseudo-playoff matchup between two high-profile clubs. However, the Jets (8-5) are the only team that is staring at the playoffs in this contest, sitting all alone in the sixth and final playoff position in the AFC postseason race. The Eagles (5-8) have been the league's biggest disappointment by far, in spite of last Sunday's 26-10 rout of the Dolphins for their second win in the previous six games.
Philadelphia has majorly struggled both at home and in the favorite role, going 1-5 SU/ATS at Lincoln Financial Field and 3-7 SU/ATS when laying points. The Eagles will be listed as home 'chalk,' as Andy Reid's defense has allowed 24 or more points in four home losses, including 38 in their last home contest against the Patriots. The Jets aren't exactly a great play on the road this season, going 2-4 SU/ATS, with the two wins coming at Buffalo and Washington. New York is surprisingly one of the top 'over' teams in the league by cashing nine times, including four of six on the highway.
Week 15 NFL Trends & Angles
Before going on to this week's feature angle, we would like to point out that the Monday Night Magic angle featured last week again won easily with the Chargers, and wouldn't you know it but we just had our fourth consecutive Monday night winner by at least 17 points, meaning that the angle will again be in effect for the fourth straight week!
That will be our second angle this week, but we will kick things off with an angle having to do with teams coming off of back-to-back big losses, as the Raiders and the Buccaneers each incurred their second straight blow out loss last week.
Play on any home team coming off of two straight losses by 14 points or more (61-40, 60.4% ATS since 2002): Those of you that have followed our past articles know that we love contrarian angles, and the general public usually does not like to bet on teams coming off of back-to-back blowout losses. Thus, you usually get some good line value on these losers in their next game, especially at home, where they are now over 60 percent over more than 100 decisions since 2002. There are two qualifiers for Week 15: Tampa Bay +6½ (Saturday) and Oakland +1.
Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (43-23, 65.2% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. This angle won for the third straight week with the Chargers last Sunday, and the trend says to take Seattle +3½ in Week 15.
During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of three or more losses (84-56-2, 60.0% ATS since 1985): Many times, teams coming off of three or more losses this late in the year have now been eliminated from the playoff race, and thus these teams do not enjoy as much of a home field advantage as they did earlier in the year. And even if these teams are still in the playoff picture, you are now being asked to give points with a team that is not playing very well. There is one qualifying play for Week 15, and it is a second-time qualifier in the Seattle Seahawks +3½ at the ice-cold Chicago Bears.
Play against any favorite playing a "bad team" after it played a "good team" the previous week (86-61-2, 58.5% ATS since 2002): This is one of our favorite angles, as it actually quantifies what good and bad teams are. For the purposes of our weekly angles and trends, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its last 18 games, and a bad team is defined as a team that has lost at least 12 of its last 18 games. This is the essence of the Letdown Theory, and the fact that it is now quantified and has produced the results we expected makes this angle that much stronger. This angle lost its only play when last seen in Week 13, but it has a chance to bounce back with two qualifiers in Week 15: Cleveland +6½ at Arizona and Indianapolis +6½ vs. Tennessee.
Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (53-36, 59.6% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle lost with Oakland last week, but there are two more qualifiers for Week 15: New England -6½ at Denver and Carolina +6 at Houston. In an added note about the New England game, when the hot home team is an underdog like Denver is, the home fade is 7-4-1, 63.6 percent ATS.
Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-66-6, 60.5% ATS since 2002): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of teams not liking to be embarrassed and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. There is one qualifying play in Week 15, and it is a repeater: Tampa Bay +6½ (Saturday).
Play on any road underdog coming off of a road game (275-202-13, 57.7% ATS since 2002): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs. In the years that we have been doing this column, this angle has produced the biggest profit over the last nine years, as it now stands at +52.8 units over 477 decisions based on odds of -110. There is one repeat qualifier for Week 15, that being Cleveland +6½.
NFL Week 15 Over/Unders from the Sharps
Grantland.com
Erin Rynning
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings Over 51
Quite simply, a mismatch of epic proportions, with Drew Brees and the Saints' passing offense against the Vikings decimated secondary. The Saints should be able to throw the ball up and down the field Sunday. Running back Adrian Peterson is expected to return for this contest, and paired with Percy Harvin, the Vikes can garner their fair share of points.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Over 46
This is a manageable total to go at, considering the Patriots have averaged about 35 points per game over their last five contests. This Denver defense just hasn’t faced many high-powered offensive teams or standout quarterbacks. Meanwhile, look for Tim Tebow to hit a few big plays Sunday. The Patriots defense certainly has holes and Tebow’s ability to keep a play alive will make it that much more difficult for the defense to make stops.
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals Over 36½
This is a good number to look to get over the total, while 37 is a key number. Cleveland quarterback Colt McCoy is expected to miss this game, and the total has clicked down. This just might be the wrong idea; Seneca Wallace can make plays with his arm and feet. Both teams have recently faced a number of top-notch defensive units.
Bryan Leonard
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings Over 50½
The last three times the Saints have been held to 23 points or less, the following games produced 43, 69 and 57 points, an average of 56.3 points per game. Minnesota has only held one opponent all season to less than 21 points, and the Vikings allowed 32.3 points per game their last eight contests. Overall, seven of the last eight Minnesota home games have gone over.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Under 41
Eleven of the last 17 Tennessee road games have gone under the posted total. In a must-win game, we expect a conservative game plan for the Titans, which is clearly the more talented squad. The last seven Tennessee games have resulted in 41 overall points or less. The Colts have played back-to-back opponents who clearly overlooked them, and they still only managed 34 combined points, including a last-second touchdown last week at Baltimore. Now they face a team that needs to beat them to stay in the playoff hunt.
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders Over 47½
The past five games, Detroit has permitted 28, 31, 27, 35 and 37 points. Nine of the last 11 times Detroit traveled to an AFC location, the game surpassed the posted total. Oakland's defense is wearing down, allowing 46 and 34 points the past two weeks, with 44 of those points coming before halftime. All three of Oakland's games against NFC opponents this year have gone over, doing so by a combined 18½ points.
Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 14 Recap
Total players saw some scoring outbursts last week, with 10 teams putting 30 or more points on the scoreboard. Along with the shootouts, we had a couple close calls that could’ve gone either way. In the end, the ‘over’ went 10-6. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 103-99-5 (51%).
Divisional Trends
This section will heat up the last two weeks of the regular season with the majority of contests being played within the division. Week 16 will have 11 divisional battles while Week 17 has all 16. This Sunday, we only have three.
Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins have watched their last four games go ‘over’ the number, due to a defense that has surrendered 28 points per game during this stretch. The Giants have been a solid ‘over’ team (8-4) this season, plus their defense has given up 49, 38 and 34 the past three weeks albeit against quarterbacks named Brees, Rodgers and Romo. I don’t believe Grossman fits in that class. Washington beat New York 28-14 in Week 1, with the combined 42 going over the closing number of 42 ½ points. Prior to that outcome, the ‘under’ was on a 6-2 run in this series.
Miami at Buffalo: When this pair met in South Florida on Nov. 20, some total bettors caught a bad beat as the Dolphins stopped the Bills 35-8 and the game went ‘under’ the 44-point closer. Miami led 28-6 at the break and 35-6 with 10 minutes left in the third. Unfortunately only a safety was added the rest of the way. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 32.3 PPG in the last six games, yet the ‘under’ is 4-2 during this stretch because the offense has only busted 20 points once. Miami (11-2) has been an ‘under’ team all season, especially on the road (6-0).
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Little surprised to see a total in the forties here when you look at the current form and the talent on the field. The Titans have seen the ‘under’ cash in seven straight games, plus the Colts are on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ as well. The first meeting of the season watched Tennessee beat Indy 27-10 on Oct. 30 and even though the game went ‘under’ (43.5), the Colts had two opportunities to get late touchdowns. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run between these teams.
30-Something
Totals that have a closing line of less than 38 this season have seen the ‘over’ go 11-6 (65%) this season. Are the numbers too low? We’ll find out this week with two games facing the above situation. And to be honest here, it would be tough to see shootouts here.
Seattle at Chicago: The Seahawks and Bears have both seen the ‘over’ go 7-6 this season. However, Chicago is averaging 11 PPG since QB Jay Cutler went down. Seattle’s defense (19.9 PPG) has been stout this season, but this will be the first road game after three straight at home for the ‘Hawks. The last four meetings between this pair have gone ‘over.’
Cleveland at Arizona: Seneca Wallace will get the start at QB for the Browns and he might be an improvement from the ever-inconsistent Colt McCoy (concussion). Cleveland has put up 20-plus points twice this season, which has helped produce an 8-4-1 ‘under’ mark. Arizona isn’t explosive at all either but it’s only had two totals listed under 40 points this season and both did go ‘over.’
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ cashed in both primetime affairs last week. The Cowboys and Giants easily eclipsed their number and the Seahawks added a late punch on MNF to help get the number there. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 16-11-1 (59%) in games under the lights this season. This week, we have two non-conference tilts with travel involved.
Baltimore at San Diego: The total here is hovering around 44 points and this is a tough total to handicap because the Ravens haven’t played anybody good on the road, outside of Pittsburgh. San Diego has started to put up some points (38, 37) the last two weeks albeit against the Jaguars and Bills. The Ravens’ defense has only surrendered a combined 26 points the last three weeks, all resulting in ‘under’ tickets. The Chargers and Ravens met in 2009 (31-26) and 2007 (32-14) and both games went ‘over.’
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: If you thought the SNF game was tough, the MNF battle could be tougher just due to the injury report. All signs have Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) playing but the Steelers’ defense has so many ‘questionable’ players, plus Harrison is suspended. The 49ers are banged up too, especially at linebacker with Patrick Willis (hamstring). As of Saturday the number is sitting at 39, which seems high when you have the league’s two best scoring defenses in the 49ers (14 PPG) and Steelers (15.2 PPG). Both clubs have identical 7-6 marks to the ‘under’ this season.
Fearless Predictions
After a hot streak, we’ve come back to life – I guess. Even though the Best Bets came up short (0-2) by a couple points, we caught a break on the Team Total and the Teaser resulted in a push. So, we drop $120. On the season, the profits stand at $730. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Cincinnati-St. Louis 38.5
Best Under: New England-Denver 47
Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 22.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Under N.Y. Jets-Philadelphia 53
Under New England-Denver 56
Over Cincinnati-St. Louis 30
Baltimore at San Diego
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Although it’s probably too late in terms of getting to the playoffs, San Diego (6-7 straight up, 4-9 against the spread) has responded to a six-game losing streak by winning back-to-back games in blowout fashion.
Norv Turner’s squad will try to keep its slim postseason hopes alive Sunday night when it hosts Baltimore (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) at Qualcomm Stadium on NBC at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had the Ravens listed as 2½-point favorites with a total of 44½. Gamblers can take the Chargers to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
During San Diego’s six-game slide, all but one of its defeats came by seven points or less. In other words, they were all one-possession games that could’ve gone either way. However, the Chargers were entirely too mistake-prone and perennial Pro-Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers was in the midst of a nightmare campaign, leading the NFL in interceptions with 17.
Those turnovers have disappeared over the last two weeks, though. Granted, San Diego was going against a pair of struggling squads in Jacksonville and Buffalo, but it was also dealing out woodshed treatment with Rivers returning to form.
The Bolts blasted Jacksonville by a 38-14 count as three-point road favorites on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, as Rivers completed 22-of-28 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. Ryan Mathews rushed for 112 yards and one TD on just 13 carries.
Back at home last week, San Diego throttled Buffalo 37-10 as a seven-point home ‘chalk.’ The same recipe for success was in play again as Rivers wasn’t intercepted and Mathews eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground. The N.C. St. product threw for 240 yards and three scores, while Mathews gained 114 yards on 20 totes.
John Harbaugh’s team is gunning for its fifth straight win for the first time in more than five years. The Ravens failed to cover the number in last week’s 24-10 win over Indianapolis as 16½-point home favorites.
Bettors backing Baltimore suffered a back-breaking loss when Indy QB Dan Orlovsky found Jacob Tamme for a 13-yard scoring strike on the game’s final play. The TD pass gave the Colts the backdoor cover after trailing by 21 since midway through the third quarter.
Joe Flacco threw for 227 yards and a pair of TDs, while Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards and one TD. Terrell Suggs recorded three sacks to bring his season tally to 13, which ranks fourth in the NFL.
Baltimore remained unbeaten at home with the win over Indy, but it has been shaky on the road this year. The Ravens have lost three times as favorites at Tennessee, at Jacksonville and at Seattle in its only previous trip into the Pacific time zone.
San Diego has won four of its seven home games but is an abysmal 2-5 versus the number. The Chargers have been home underdogs just once, losing 45-38 to Green Bay as 5 ½-point puppies.
For the season, Rivers has 3,745 passing yards with a 22/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mathews is nearing a 1,000-yard season with 943 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates have 53 receptions apiece for 952 and 601 receiving yards, respectively. Jackson has eight TD grabs and Gates has six.
Flacco has 3,122 passing yards with a 15/9 TD-INT ratio. Rice has a team-high 62 receptions for 593 yards and a pair of touchdowns, in addition to his 1,029 rushing yards and 10 scores. Anquan Boldin has 55 catches for 836 yards and three TDs, while rookie Torrey Smith continues to emerge with 37 catches for 693 yards and team-high six TD grabs.
After missing four consecutive games with a toe injury, perennial Pro-Bowl LB Ray Lewis will return to the starting lineup Sunday night.
These teams met at this same venue two season ago with Baltimore capturing a 31-26 win as a one-point road underdog. Flacco threw a pair of TD passes to offset Rivers’ 436 passing yards.
The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Ravens, 4-2 in their six road assignments. Meanwhile, the Bolts have watched the ‘under’ go 7-6 overall, 6-1 in their home games.
Game of the day: Patriots at Broncos
By Covers.com
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+9, 46)
THE STORY: It's rare that Tom Brady enters an opposing NFL stadium and is looked at as “The other guy.” But that's the case this week, and it’s because Tim Tebow is converting non-believers one fourth-quarter comeback at a time. Tebow faces his biggest test of the season, however, as Brady and the AFC East-leading New England Patriots travel to Denver in hopes of ending the Broncos’ six-game winning streak. A polarizing figure, Tebow has silenced critics and resurrected the AFC West-leading Broncos’ season by winning seven of his eight starts. The Patriots, meanwhile, have won five straight and are one of four teams in the conference vying for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can clinch their eighth AFC East title in nine years with a win or a New York Jets' loss to Philadelphia. New England, however, is just 2-15 in Denver since 1969.
TV: CBS, 4:15 p.m. ET.
LINE: The Patriots opened as low as 5.5-point favorites and have climbed to -9 as of Saturday afternoon. The total has remained steady around 46 points.
ABOUT NEW ENGLAND (10-3, 7-6 ATS): Brady threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns in a closer-than-expected 34-27 win over Washington last week, but his sideline spat with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was the story. The two had a heated exchange after Brady threw a rare red-zone interception – his first in more than a month – late in the fourth quarter. Before the dust-up, Brady threw two touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski, who had six catches for a career-high 160 yards and set a single-season record for touchdowns by a tight end (15) in the process. Gronkowski has 10 scores in his last six games. The Patriots’ league-worst defense (416.0 ypg) gave up 170 yards on the ground to Washington, which is a concern as it prepares to face the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack (156.2 ypg).
ABOUT DENVER (8-5, 7-6 ATS): The Broncos were on the verge of being shut out at home for the first time in the franchise’s 52-year history last Sunday before they rallied for an improbable 13-10 overtime victory over Chicago. Tebow started 3 of 16 for 45 yards, but went 18 of 24 for 191 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and OT as Denver erased a 10-point deficit in the final 4:34 of regulation. Matt Prater sent the game to overtime with a 59-yard field goal and won it with a 51-yarder – his third straight game-winning kick – after Marion Barber fumbled in overtime. It was Tebow’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback in 11 starts – the most since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Tebow isn’t the only reason for the turnaround. Veteran RB Willis McGahee has an NFL-best six 100-yard games and is nearing his first 1,000-yard season since 2007. The defense, led by outstanding rookie LB Von Miller (11.5 sacks), is allowing an average of 15.6 points over the last five contests.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. NBC tried to “flex” this game into its prime-time slot since the matchup wasn’t protected at the start of the season by CBS, but Commissioner Roger Goodell stepped in.
2. “If you make bad plays, you are supposed to get yelled at by your coaches.” – Brady, on the confrontation with O’Brien.
3. Tebow’s completion percentage is an abysmal 39.4 percent in the first half this season, but it jumps to 61.3 in the fourth quarter.
TRENDS:
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
PREDICTION: Patriots 31, Broncos 17 - Tebow Time? Not this time. Brady and New England build an insurmountable lead early.