NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 16 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
It took 15 weeks, but we finally have a loss for the Packers and a win for the Colts. How will things play out in Week 16, with so many teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance? Let’s check in with the NFL poolies cheat sheet:
Houston (-6) at Indianapolis
Why Texans cover: Despite their upset home loss to Carolina last week, the Texans still have shot at No. 1 or 2 seed in AFC playoffs, so there’s plenty of incentive. Plus, Houston has spent its existence as a whipping boy for Indy in the AFC South, so this team should relish the opportunity to take it to the Colts twice in the same season – the Texans rolled 34-7 in Week 1 at home. Gary Kubiak’s crew was on run of 7-0 straight-up (SU) and 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) before last week’s setback.
Why Colts cover: They’re dripping with confidence after breaking through for first SU win of season, 27-13 over visiting Tennessee as a 6.5-point pup last week. Indy has cashed five straight in December and is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Thursday starts.
Total (40): The over is 10-3 in the last 13 in this rivalry, but keep in mind that was usually with Peyton Manning playing for the Colts and Matt Schaub playing for the Texans. The under is 6-1 in Indy’s last seven overall.
Oakland at Kansas City (-1)
Why Raiders cover: This team is on a three-game SU slide, yet still has a chance to win the AFC Worst, er, West. The road team in this classic rivalry has been a great bet at 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 clashes. The Raiders have covered in their last five trips to K.C. (4-1 SU).
Why Chiefs cover: Hey, these guys just beat the previously-unbeaten Packers. K.C. has covered three of its last four and Oakland is just 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 vs. losing teams.
Total (42): Total has over in five straight for the Raiders, but the Chiefs are riding under stretches of 8-1 overall and 6-0 at Arrowhead. The under is 6-1 overall in this rivalry and is 5-1 in the last six in K.C.
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)
Why Jaguars cover: Not easy to make a case for these guys. After they beat Tampa Bay 41-14 two weeks ago, they lost by that same score last week at Atlanta. Who knows what you’ll get? Maybe the Jags are catching the Titans at the right time – Tennessee has dropped last two SU and ATS.
Why Titans cover: If they want to prove themselves playoff worthy, they’ve got to drub bad opponents – something they didn’t do in losing to previously-winless Indianapolis last week. But Tennessee has normally been sound vs. sub-.500 teams, covering five straight before last week’s toe-stubbing.
Total (40): Tennessee’s on a huge under tear, playing below the number in eight straight. Jacksonville averages just 14.8 ppg (29th), and the under has hit in six of its last seven roadies. The under is also on 4-0 stretch in this AFC South rivalry.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-9)
Why Buccaneers cover: This team went 10-6 last year and maybe that unit will show up for an NFC South rivalry game. The Bucs are getting 9 points against a 5-9 team, which is pretty unusual. Tampa is also a solid road pup, at 11-3 ATS in the last 14 in that role.
Why Panthers cover: This is not your ordinary 5-9 team. QB Cam Newton’s likely on his way to Rookie of the Year honors and Carolina just knocked off the red-hot Texans on the road to win and cover for the third time in four weeks. The Panthers improved to 16-6 ATS in their last 22 December outings. Three weeks ago in Tampa, the Panthers rolled 38-19.
Total (47.5): The under is on runs of 19-7 with Panthers favored, 4-1 in division play for the Bucs and 6-1 in the last seven Panthers-Bucs meetings in Carolina.
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (-3)
Why Giants cover: It’s a battle for New York, with both teams fighting for their playoff lives. If push comes to shove at QB, Eli Manning gets the nod over Mark Sanchez. The G-Men are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday affairs. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.
Why Jets cover: They can’t afford another embarrassing performance against the NFC East after getting drubbed in Philadelphia last week. Gang Green has covered in their last four Saturday starts.
Total (45.5): Both of these teams are on a boatload of over streaks. The Giants are on 4-0 over runs as an underdog. The Jets have played over to a tune of 24-8 overall, 5-0 in December, 4-0 at home and 9-3 after a SU loss.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-15.5)
Why Rams cover: Seriously? If Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is as immobile this week as he was last week, perhaps the Rams can stick around since 15.5 is a lot. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. losing teams.
Why Steelers cover: Because the Rams are the worst team in the league at the betting window, at 2-11-1 ATS this year. St. Louis is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine roadies. Mike Tomlin’s troops are a solid bounce-back bet, with streaks of 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS off a non-cover.
Total (37.5): The Rams average a league-low 11.9 ppg. The Steelers’ defense is No. 2 in NFL, allowing just 15.6 ppg. The under is on runs of 8-3 overall for the Rams, 4-0 overall for the Steelers and 4-1 in the Steel City.
Denver (-1.5) at Buffalo
Why Broncos cover: They lost convincingly to New England, but they still have Tim Tebow playing on Christmas Eve of all days. The Fighting Tebows have won and covered their last five roadies, though only one was from the favorite’s role. Denver’s superb on Saturdays (9-0 ATS in the last nine). Buffalo is in a total downward spiral, losing seven in a row while covering just once.
Why Bills cover: Not much positive to say about Buffalo, but Denver is 7-15 ATS in December, 15-35-1 ATS when laying points, and 8-22-1 ATS against losing teams.
Total (41): Most trends point to the over – 10-2 in Denver’s last 12 as chalk, 10-3 in the Broncos’ last 13 in December, 10-4-1 in Buffalo’s last 15 overall, and 8-1-1 in Bills’ last 10 when getting points.
Minnesota at Washington (-6.5)
Why Vikings cover: Adrian Peterson got a light workload last week (10 carries) as he returned from ankle sprain in a blowout loss to the Saints. He should be rested and ready to shoulder much bigger load this week. The ‘Skins are on a 0-7 ATS dive as home favorites.
Why Redskins cover: They’re on a 4-1 ATS upswing and just put a huge dent in the Giants’ playoff hopes with a 23-10 road victory while catching 5.5 points. The Vikes are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 as a pup.
Total (44): The over has hit in five of the Vikings’ last six and four of the ‘Skins last five.
Arizona at Cincinnati (-4)
Why Cardinals cover: They own streaks of 6-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as they’ve moved into playoff contention. The only issue is whether Kevin Kolb (concussion) returns as the starter, and with the way John Skelton has played in relief, the Cards might not want Kolb back right now. The Cards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine on Saturday and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. The Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 when laying points.
Why Bengals cover: Still very much in playoff hunt and perhaps long overdue for a cover after going 0-4-2 at the betting window in the last six weeks. Cincy is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU win.
Total (40.5): Cincy has played over in eight of its last 11 overall and five in a row at home.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)
Why Browns cover: They’ve only cashed five times all season, but four of those have come in the past five weeks. The Ravens often play down to level of competition, going 1-5 ATS in their last six against losing teams. The road team has covered in the last four in this AFC North rivalry.
Why Ravens cover: They remain in pursuit of a first-round playoff bye and they’ve got plenty to prove after getting plastered on national TV last week at San Diego. Baltimore rolled 24-10 laying 7 points three weeks ago in Cleveland, moving to 6-1 ATS in the last seven vs. the Browns.
Total (38.5): Cleveland’s averaging a meager 13.9 ppg (30th) and has the under on streaks of 4-1-1 overall and 8-3-1 when getting points. The under is also 4-1 in the last four Cleveland-Baltimore clashes. On the flip side, Baltimore is on over runs of 7-0 off a SU loss and 5-0 off an ATS setback.
Miami at New England (-9.5)
Why Dolphins cover: They’ve been on fire against the number lately, cashing seven of last eight, including road win at Buffalo last week. The Fish are 5-0 ATS vs. winning teams and 21-8-1 on the highway. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Dolphins-Patriots contests.
Why Patriots cover: They own the Dolphins lately, winning and cashing in the last three clashes by double digits, including 38-24 victory in the season opener when laying 7 points. The Pats rumbled 38-7 as a 4-point favorite in Week 17 last year in Foxborough.
Total (48.5): Miami has played under to a clip of 10-2-1 overall, 8-0 as a pup, and 21-7 in roadies. New England has played over to a tune of 25-8 overall, 12-4 at home, and 10-1 in AFC East affairs.
San Diego at Detroit (-1.5)
Why Chargers cover: Because as bad a coach as Norv Turner is, somehow this team always turns it on in December. With Philip Rivers at the QB helm, Bolts have gone 23-2 SU in the last 25 December games. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this December, all in blowout fashion. The Chargers also on underdog ATS runs of 23-9-3 overall and 18-8-3 on road.
Why Lions cover: They’re on the brink of their first playoff berth in forever. OK, it’s only been since 1999, but that’s a long time. Detroit is 7-3-2 ATS in its last dozen when laying points. San Diego is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight on highway.
Total (52.5): These two offenses are among best in league with Detroit fourth at 28.2 ppg and San Diego fifth at 25.6. The over is 31-12-4 in the Bolts’ last 47 on road.
San Francisco (-1) at Seattle
Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the league is better than 49ers against the number. They’re 11-2-1 ATS in a season that began with a 33-17 home win over the Seahawks as a 6-point chalk. Jim Harbaugh’s troops, pursuing at least the No. 2 seed in NFC, are also a red-hot favorite at 11-1 ATS in their last 12 in that role. The Seahawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. winning teams.
Why Seahawks cover: This team still has a chance to make the playoffs and would love nothing more than to ding a division rival while remaining in wild-card contention. And with Marshawn Lynch going off lately (five 100-yard games in last seven outings, with eight TDs), the Seahawks certainly look worthy. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and has posted three straight double-digit wins. The home team in this rivalry on 5-0 ATS run.
Total (38): Niners have league’s No. 1 scoring defense, yielding 13.2 ppg. That has the under going 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five and 8-3-1 with the Niners set as a road favorite. But Seattle’s on slew of over streaks, including 19-7 overall, 8-0 in December, and 12-3-1 at home.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)
Why Eagles cover: Just look at that line. It’s clear bookmakers have little faith in Dallas (1-4 ATS in the last five), even on its home field. Philly somehow still has a shot at playoffs and is coming off pair of double-digit SU and ATS wins. The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in the last eight at home and 3-10 ATS in the last 13 when laying points in Dallas.
Why Cowboys cover: Big revenge spot, after getting belted 34-7 at Philly on Oct. 30. Prior to that, the Cowboys had cashed five in a row in this NFC East rivalry (4-1 SU). The home team has covered four of the last five Eagles-Cowboys contests.
Total (50.5): Over is 10-3 in the Eagles’ last 13 roadies and 12-4 in the Cowboys’ last 16 at home.
Chicago at Green Bay (-13)
Why Bears cover: Coach Lovie Smith will give fans a gift on Christmas Day by benching ineffective backup Caleb Hanie in favor of third-stringer Josh McCown. It can’t hurt, with Bears having lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) since Jay Cutler’s thumb injury. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this NFC North rivalry.
Why Packers cover: After dismal performance at Kansas City, where they suffered their first loss in more than a year, the Packers should be plenty motivated to get back on track and secure home field throughout playoffs. Green Bay’s a solid bounce-back bet, with ATS runs of 8-0 off a non-cover and 4-0 off a SU loss.
Total (44.5): Bears have mixed bag of over and under trends, while Packers are on over surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, and 6-1 at Lambeau. But in this rivalry, the under has cashed eight straight times overall and four of the last five on Frozen Tundra.
Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)
Why Falcons cover: They’ve got more to play for than Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot. An upset win would secure a postseason berth for Atlanta. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in December. The trends in this NFC South rivalry point to Falcons: Atlanta 11-5 ATS in the last 16 vs. New Orleans, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, and the underdog has cashed five in a row.
Why Saints cover: They are the hottest team going right now, winning and covering six in a row and seven of their last eight, with five double-digit victories and a win and cover on road against Atlanta in overtime. Sean Payton’s troops have covered their last six at home and are on a 5-0 ATS run as favorites.
Total (53): The over is 6-2 in the Saints’ last eight on Mondays. However, despite two of league’s best offenses (Saints 32.6 ppg, Falcons 24.4 ppg), several under trends are in play. The Falcons are on under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 vs. winning teams. The Saints sport under streaks of 13-3 inside NFC South and 5-1 vs. winning teams.
NFL Week 16
Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13) - Short week for both teams after Indy got monkey off back for first win; Colts covered last three games, are 2-4 as home dog. Texans already clinched AFC South, have rookie QB starting- they’ve won last four road games, scoring 29.5 ppg, but had 7-game win streak snapped by Carolina- they’re still without DC Phillips. Houston (-8.5) crushed Indy 34-7 in season opener, outrushing Colts 167-64 and running punt back for TD; Texans are 0-9 in franchise history here, but obviously Manning was QB in those games. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Four of last five Texan games, five of last seven Indy games stayed under total. Texans are 7-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-0 on road, with road wins by 10-34-28-1-7 points.
Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (5-9) - KC played with renewed enthusiasm in upset of Packers, with Orton winning his first Chief start; now archrival Raiders visit, having won last four visits here, allowing 11.3 ppg. Chiefs (+4) shut Raiders out 28-0 in Week 7 at Oakland, scoring two defensive TDs, one on second play of game; KC had six INTs, three against Palmer when he made Raider debut in second half. That game was one of only four games in NFL all year where losing side didn’t score TD or attempt FG. Oakland blew 13-point lead with 7:37 left Sunday for third loss in row, allowing Stafford to drive 98 yards for winning score, after tactical error kept lead at 13, instead of going for 2 and trying for 14-point lead after last TD. Fifth road game in seven weeks for Raider squad that lost last two away games, 34-14/46-16 (outscored 44-0 in first half).
Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9) - Denver still holds its AFC West destiny in own hands; Broncos had 6-game win streak snapped by Patriots, but Tebow is 5-0 in road starts, winning last two by FG each, at Chargers/Vikings. Buffalo is in total freefall, losing last seven games (1-6 vs spread), with five of the seven by 10+ points; they were 0-11 on 3rd down vs Miami, allowed Fish to run for 254 yards 202 by Reggie Bush. Denver won last three visits here by 2-1-11 points, as visitor won four of last five series games. Broncos’ last loss here was in ’94. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for Denver. Bills lost last three home games by 16-6-7 points; they won first three home games, then beat Redskins in “home” game in Toronto, but haven’t won back in Orchard Park since then. Buffalo has lost field position by 8+ yards in six of last seven games.
Jaguars (4-10) @ Titans (7-7) - Hideous loss at Indy last week damaged Titans’ playoff chances, almost as much as when Jags (-3) beat Tennessee 16-14 in season opener, outrushing Titans 163-43, converting 8 of 11 on 3rd down. Tennessee ran ball for 59-66 yards in last two games; hard to describe how listless they looked in indy loss, when win would have them in playoff spot had season ended today. Jags are 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 29-6-4-4-27 points. Titans are 2-4 as favorite this year, 2-3 at home, winning in Nashville by 13-3-17-6 points, with losses to Texans-Bengals-Saints. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven visits here, but haven’t swept Titans since ’05. Jax has three extra days to prep here after dismal Thursday night loss in Atlanta. Legit question for Titans: Should they be giving QB of future Locker experience in last two games?
Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6) - Cruel of schedule maker to put dome-loving Redbirds in cold weather site on Christmas Eve, but Arizona has won six of last seven games, with three of those wins in OT and other three by 4 or less points, as young QB Skelton/dynamic punt returner Peterson have done just enough to win these close games. Bengals are 2-4 in last six games, with wins vs doormats Browns/Rams; Cincy is 2-3-1 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home, and only cover was on defensive TD late in Indy game- they’re 3-3 SU at home, winning by 3-10-3 points. Home team won eight of nine series games, with Cardinals winning last visit here 35-27 in ’07, their only win in six visits to Cincy. NFC West road underdogs are 10-7-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 6-8-1. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games, 1-4-2 in Arizona’s last seven games.
Dolphins (5-9) @ Patriots (11-3) - Miami is 5-2 since 0-7 start; no matter who next coach is, he doesn’t need a QB, as Moore has proven to be capable leader. Dolphins ran ball for 254 yards Sunday, second time in three weeks they topped 200 mark, bad news for Patriot defense that allowed Denver 252 rushing yards in 41-23 win in Mile High City (+3 turnover ratio led to 24-yard edge in field position for Pats). New England (-7) won first meeting 38-24 in season opener at Miami, as Brady passed for 516 yards (10.5 ypa); Patriots are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 14-9-4-31-7 points- they’re 2-5 vs spread this year when laying more than 7. Miami is 5-2 as a road dog this season. Five of last six Patriot games went over total; under is 9-2-1 in Miami’s last dozen, but first game without Sparano went over. Miami lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 10-21-10-31 points.
Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4) - Cleveland is 1-7 in last eight visits here, losing last three by 18-31-7 points; Baltimore (-7) won first meeting 24-10 on Lake Erie three weeks ago, outrushing Browns 290-59 and getting PR for TD; Flacco completed just 10-23 passes in game where Ravens outgained hosts 448-233. Four of last six Cleveland games were decided by 4 or less points; Browns are 2-3 as road underdog this year, losing last five road games by 7-10-18-3-11 points. Ravens are 4-2-1 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 28-17-15-3-7-10-14 points. Under is 4-1-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home teams are 2-6-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, with over 5-3-1 in those games. Ravens have five sacks in their four losses, 40 in their ten wins.
Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6) - This is Jet home game, but teams share stadium, so in reality home game #9 for Giant club that lost five of last six games, and fizzled out Sunday as soon as Nicks dropped sure TD pass on first series vs Redskins. Giant defense allowed average of 36 ppg last four weeks, allowing foes to convert 32 of last 63 (5x.x%) 3rd down plays. Jets are 6-1 at home this year, with only loss to Patriots; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, but anytime a contending team trails 28-0 after 20:03 of play in a game they need to win, red flags are raised. Both Jersey teams stunk last week, but Jets lucked out when Titans/Raiders also lost, so they’re still #6 AFC team. Last four Jet games, three of last four Giant games went over total. Giants are 7-4 in once-every-four years-rivalry, winning last four by 7-13-3-11 points, with average total in last three, 62.3.
Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9) - Minnesota is 2-12 despite leading four games this year by 8+ points at half (lost all four); they’re 3-2-1 as road dogs this season, losing away games by 7-5-24-38-10-6 points, with a win at Carolina. Vikings allowed 35-34-42 points in last three games (11 TDs on 35 drives). Skins covered four of last five games (2-2 in last four SU); they’re favored here for first time since Week 4. Washington lost last five home games since winning first two, by 1-14 points. Vikings won three of last fur visits here; three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Four of last five Washington games, seven of last nine Viking games went over the total. NFC East home favorites are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC road underdogs are 5-3-1.
Buccaneers (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9) - Carolina won three of last four games, scoring 29 ppg; they’re 3-2 as a favorite this year, with four of five wins by 8+ points. Tampa Bay was 4-2 when they went to London to play Bears in October; they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight games since, with only cover a 35-26 loss at Lambeau; Carolina (+3.5) came to Tampa and whacked Bucs 38-19 three weeks ago, outrushing hosts 163-78, averaging 9.3 ypa and scoring five TDs on nine drives. Buccaneers are 3-6 as dog this year, 2-4 on road, losing true road games by 45-11-9-6-27 points. Home teams are 7-2 vs spread in NFC South games, 5-2 if favored. Rarely a good idea to back bad team coming off national TV game; they usually empty their bucket in front of big TV audience. Bucs have led one game at halftime this year, Week 3 against Atlanta.
Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4) - Monday night loss puts Pitt behind 8-ball for division title and first round bye; Big Ben’s ankle is in bad shape, not sure what tack they take here vs pathetic Ram squad (0-11-1 vs spread in 12 losses) with #3 QB Clemens at helm. St Louis is 1-6 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 12-21-27-6-26-17 points, with win at Cleveland when the Browns botched snap on 21-yard GW FG in last 1:30. Pitt only allowed three offensive TDs in last four games (40 drives), one on 17-yard drive at SF after a turnover- they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 24-21-4-8-28-11 points, with costly loss to Ravens. NFC West road underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 6-8-1. Under is 8-3 in Rams’ last 11 games, 4-1-1 in Steelers’ last six.
Chargers (7-7) @ Lions (9-5) - Detroit can wrap playoff spot with win after dramatic 98-yard drive in final minutes gave them a key win at Oakland last week; Lions are 2-3 in last five home games, 4-5 vs spread as favorite, 3-3 at home, with home wins by 45-11-14-6 points. San Diego won its last three games, scoring 38-37-34 points (13 TDs on 27 drives); after turning ball over 24 times in first 10 games, Chargers have just one turnover in last four games- their win last week was first cover in five tries as an underdog this year. AFC West road underdogs are 5-9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North favorites are 12-13, 8-8 at home. Five of last seven Detroit games, five of San Diego’s six road games went over total. Lions are 9-0 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t Bolts held last four foes to average of 13.5 ppg.
49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7) - 49ers still playing to hold off Saints for #2 seed and first-round bye in playoffs; they started season with 33-17 win (-5.5) over Seattle, breaking game open with pair of special teams TDs in last 5:00. Niners are +25 in turnovers; they’ve started 31 drives in enemy territory, their opponents six (none since Week 3). Seattle won five of last six games, covered six of last seven- they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten games as underdog. Home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in NFC divisional games, 2-0 in NFC West. Under is 5-3-1 in NFC West divisional games. 49ers have won field position battle by 13+ yards in six of last seven games. Under is 4-0-1 in Niners’ last five games, 0-4 in Seattle’s last four. Seahawks have three TDs on defense, one on special teams, eight on offense in their last three games, scoring 33 ppg.
Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1) - Now that Packers have a loss and already clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, not sure how much regulars play here; they won 27-17 at Chicago (-3.5) in Week 3, holding Bears to 13 rushing yards while forcing six 3/outs on 13 drives. Green Bay is 5-1 as home favorite this year, winning by 8-26-21-38-9-30 points. Punchless Bears lost last four games, by 5-7-3-24 points; they were held under 100 passing yards (88-86-89) in last three. Chicago is 2-3 as road dog this season, losing on foreign soil by 17-11-5-3 points- they scored total of 21 points in losing last three visits here by 34-6-7 points. Home favorites are 3-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games; over is 5-3 in NFC North games this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven Chicago games, 6-2 in Packers’ last eight games.
Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6) - Philly stays alive by winning here, and if Jets beat Giants; Iggles (-3.5) hammered Dallas 34-7 (at home in Week 8, outrushing Pokes 239-95, outgaining them 495-267. Philly won here 30-27 LY, their first win in last four visits- they haven’t swept Dallas since ‘06. Nine of 14 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT; they’re 2-5 as home favorite this year, with only covers vs Rams/Bills. Eagles won 26-10/45-19 in two games since Vick returned from injury, scoring eight TDs on 27 drives, with three of the eight TD drives starting in enemy territory, thanks to seven takeaways. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games (under 6-3), 5-1 on road. If Giants beat Jets, Eagles are eliminated, but game becomes meaningless for Dallas, instead setting up winner-take-all tilt in Swamp Stadium next week.
Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3) - New Orleans (even) won 26-23 at Atlanta in OT six weeks ago, when Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 on own 29 in OT but failed, after rallying from 10 down in last 5:00 to tie game- it was fifth win in last six series meetings for NO. Atlanta won here 27-24 in OT LY, snapping 6-game skid in Superdome, with losses by 3-13-20-6-4-8 points (they beat Saints in Alamodome in ’05, after Hurricane Katrina). Falcons are 2-2 as underdog this year; this is first time they’re getting points since Week 7 win at Detroit. Teams that beat Saints this year scored 42-26-31 points. WhoDats won and covered their last six games- they’re 6-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 17-7-55-11-25-14 points (average score, 40-18). Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
With Christmas fast approaching, business has been brisk in the Las Vegas sports books. Regular bankrolls for most players are finding that has become a little smaller this week because of obligations to buying the wife and kids all the gifts they asked Santa for.
This is nothing new. It’s always slow at this time of the year, but as the clock gets closer to kickoff, the traffic starts to mount, and sometimes at a more rapid pace than other weeks.
This Friday night sports books will be jumping and it will go all the way until kickoff on Saturday. Because so many people are waiting until the last minute -- just like their shopping -- it will be quite a spectacle to watch it all unfold. Extra writers will be on duty treating Friday and Saturday as if it were a Saturday and Sunday.
Make no mistake about it, though, the masses will get their bets in one way or another for Week 16 of the NFL season even if the games are on a Saturday with Christmas Eve festivities trumping regular viewing routines.
One of the initial favorites of large money early in the week was taking the Chiefs at PICK ’EM against the Raiders and betting them all the way to minus-2. The Raiders have a lot going for them historically coming in despite losing their last three games in a row and being on the verge of blowing a playoff spot.
Not only have the Raiders won the last four games at Arrowhead Stadium, but they have also covered their last eight games on the road against AFC West opponents. They started the season out 5-0 against the spread on the road, but didn’t cover their last two. They had two bad road losses at Miami and Green Bay to suggest that maybe they have packed it in and will wait for a full season next year with quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Darren McFadden.
However, Oakland showed some grit last week against Detroit, but ran out of gas at the costliest moment -- the end of the game.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has a new coach, new quarterback and most of all, a new attitude. After just knocking off the previously undefeated Packers, they probably feel that they can beat anyone. While this could set up to be a major let down spot for the Chiefs, the influx of new characters running the team might not allow for that to happen.
The team the Chiefs are trying to catch, Denver, is being bet against in their game at Buffalo. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites, but money came in on the Bills knocking it to -3 (EVEV) and finally down to -2.5 points. Despite the Tim Tebow show coming to town, the game will still be blacked out in Buffalo because of not selling out.
It will be interesting to see how the young quarterback responds being not only a favorite, but having the AFC West crown in his hands with two games to go. Buffalo is a dangerous team here with a seven-game losing streak just trying to salvage anything it can to close out their season. For whatever its worth, Denver has won the last three games in Buffalo.
The other part of the AFC West equation has the red-hot Chargers of December cruising into Detroit with plenty of backing behind them. Perhaps it was just a matter of bettors getting the attractive initial number of +3 (-120), but the number is down to +2.5 flat after some moves on the money attached. The Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but Philip Rivers is now 23-2 as a starter in December.
The NFC East has some great drama going on as both the Cowboys and Giants appear to be content with making the next two weeks the most action packed, thrilling roller-coaster ride we've ever seen. While those two teams figure out ways to lose, the Eagles have suddenly come to life and money is backing them this week.
The Cowboys opened -2.5 (-120) for their home game against the Eagles and the line currently sits at -1.5. After the pounding Philadelphia put on the Jets last week, we are all starting believe that this was the Eagles team we expected to see from the beginning of the year.
The Giants and Jets have met 11 times (NYG 7-4) while sharing the Big Apple spotlight, but none of the previous 11 games had as much meaning as this one with playoff spots on the line for each. Should the Jets lose an entire new landscape opens up in the AFC with several teams within grasp of a Wild Card berth. Should the Giants lose, it opens the door up for the Eagles to stay alive with a win.
Either way, it should be fun just because of the war of words which first began with Rex Ryan firing the first shot on Monday saying, "I'm not anyone's little brother" and "The Jets are the better team since he's been in New York." Victor Cruz also said Revis Island isn't feared as it once was and teams are going right at him. Besides all the fun with the media, the line has remained quite dull as Jets opened the favorite at -3 (EVEN) and it hasn't moved.
The Cardinals have been on a tear lately winning six of their last seven games and have been given all the respect in the world with bettors because the line hasn't moved from the Bengals opener of -4. Among those six wins includes victories over the Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers. This would appear to be a great situation for the Bengals at home with a Wild Card berth within reach, but somehow Arizona continues to amaze on a weekly basis.
Seattle is almost as hot as the Cardinals and it’s getting 2.5 points at home against the 49ers on a very short week for them. The Seahawks have won five of their last six, which includes big wins against the Ravens and Eagles. The 49ers initially opened as 1.5-point favorites before their win against the Steelers, then were reposted at -2.5 (-120) and are now -2.5 flat.
Carolina showed that they can play with the best last week after dominating Houston on the road and bettors laid -7 with them at home against the Buccaneers. The number is now -7.5.
The Browns have found some money with Seneca Wallace starting at quarterback again this week at Baltimore. The Ravens opened -13.5 and are now -12. Wallace and the Browns covered at Arizona last week, but still lost 20-17. The Ravens come off a blowout loss at San Diego and will be without wide receiver Anquan Boldin (knee) for at least two weeks.
QB Caleb Hanie gets the hook this week after four unsuccessful starts for the Bears in favor of Josh McCown for their Christmas night game at Green Bay. The Packers opened as 11.5-point favorites and between a few bets and moves, the game is now -13 or -13.5 everywhere.
The “Game of the Week” is Monday between the Saints and Falcons and the line hasn't moved. The Saints are 6-0 ATS at home this year while the Falcons are 9-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the last three seasons.
Have a great holiday weekend and may Santa bring you the four-team parlay you deserve, early on Saturday. ?
Tip Sheet - Week 16
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Christmas Eve card in the NFL is an interesting one with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. The two most interesting races down the stretch involve the AFC West and NFC East, as both divisions have at least three teams fighting for the title. We'll begin the Saturday preview with a battle of New Jersey, pitting two clubs that desperately need a victory.
Giants at Jets (-2½, 45½)
These two squads are always the talk of New York, but the discussion recently has circled around the meltdown of Big Blue. Tom Coughlin's Giants are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS the last six games to fall out of first place inside the NFC East, capped off by an ugly 23-10 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 15. The Giants will head to the visiting locker room at Met Life Stadium on Saturday to take on a Jets' team that was embarrassed at Philadelphia, 45-19 as three-point road underdogs.
The Jets begin Week 16 tied for the sixth spot inside the AFC playoff race at 8-6 with the Bengals, but New York has plenty to play for in the final two games. Rex Ryan's gang owns a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS record at home this season, while cashing the 'over' in each of the last four contests. The Giants are a profitable 4-2 ATS in six games as an underdog this season, including outright victories at New England, Philadelphia, and Dallas.
Broncos (-2½, 41½) at Bills
Buffalo's season has gone by the wayside with seven consecutive losses, but the Bills can still impact the AFC playoff picture with a victory over the Broncos. Denver was humbled by New England this past Sunday as seven-point home 'dogs, 41-23, after taking an early 16-7 lead. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for Denver, as the Broncos need to win one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.
Denver is listed as a favorite for the fifth time this season, but the Broncos have compiled a 1-3 ATS mark, while each game has been decided by three points or less. Since Tim Tebow's arrival at the starting quarterback position, the Broncos are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS, including a 5-0 SU/ATS mark away from Denver. During Buffalo's seven-game skid, the Bills have covered just one game, a 28-24 road loss to the Jets as 9½-point underdogs.
Raiders at Chiefs (-2, 42)
Both Oakland and Kansas City have a shot to still win the AFC West title, but each rival has to capture victories in the final two games to make the postseason. The Raiders are playing the worst of any AFC team in playoff contention with three consecutive losses, while trying to avenge a 28-0 home shutout at the hands of the Chiefs in late October. Kansas City pulled off the biggest upset of the season by stunning previously undefeated Green Bay this past Sunday as 11-point 'dogs, 19-14.
The Chiefs have turned into one of the streakiest teams in the NFL this season, by compiling a pair of substantial losing skids, while also putting up a four-game winning streak. Kansas City is an incredible 8-3 ATS as an underdog, but owns an 0-3 ATS mark when laying points, with all three losses coming as home favorites. The Chiefs are 8-1 to the 'under' the last nine games, while the Raiders have finished 'over' the total in each of the previous five contests. This series has been dominated by the road team, going 9-1 SU/ATS the last 10 meetings, including four consecutive wins by the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chargers at Lions (-2½, 52)
San Diego's resurgence continued after slamming Baltimore on Sunday night to improve to 7-7 on the season, as the Bolts head to the Motor City. The Lions rallied from a 13-point deficit to shock the Raiders, 28-27 for their ninth win, while Detroit attempts to creep closer to a Wild Card berth. Detroit's defense will be tested after allowing 27 points or more for the sixth straight week, as the Lions face a Chargers' offense that has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three victories.
Norv Turner's club has been nearly unbeatable in December and January of the regular season since 2008 with a 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS ledger, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record this month. The Chargers are riding a 7-1 stretch to the 'over' in their last eight away games, while the Lions have hit the 'over' in six of their previous seven interconference games. Detroit started hot at Ford Field, but the Lions are helping backers at home with a 1-4 ATS mark the last five games in the Motor City.
Eagles at Cowboys (-1½, 50½)
The most intriguing game of the Christmas Eve card takes place in the Lone Star State as Philadelphia looks to keep its late-season surge going against Dallas. The Eagles are coming off consecutive blowouts of AFC East opponents in wins over the Dolphins and Jets to improve to 6-8, while going for a season sweep of the Cowboys. Dallas took care of its business in a 31-15 rout of struggling Tampa Bay as seven-point favorites for its eighth win of the season, as the Cowboys halted a four-game ATS skid.
The last time these teams hooked up in Philadelphia, the Eagles racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in a 34-7 thumping of the Cowboys as three-point favorites. Michael Vick threw two touchdown passes, while LeSean McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two scores for their first home win of the season in Week 8. That loss by the Cowboys snapped a 5-0 ATS run in the series, while Dallas has won three of the last four home meetings with the Eagles. Dallas needs to get back on track as a favorite, going 2-5 ATS the last seven games in the 'chalk' role.
Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 15 Recap
The ‘under’ bounced back with an 8-7-1 mark last weekend. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 111-106-5 (51%).
College Bowls
If you play totals in pro football then one could only assume that you dabble on the college gridiron totals too. Through six games this postseason, the ‘over’ stands at 4-2 (67%) but make a note that the numbers have been spot on. Three of the winning ‘over’ tickets barely got their and the majority of the scoring has been done in the second-half. For those keeping score at home, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in the first-half so far. That could change on Saturday night in the Hawaii Bowl, which has been known to see shootouts.
System Plays
The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up for the last time this regular season on Saturday. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 69% (27-12-2) over the last seven seasons, and its gone 4-2 (67%) this season. Hopefully, the last matchup of the season, which goes Saturday, will be another winner.
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore
Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Week 12 – Arizona 23 at St. Louis 20 (OVER 40)
Week 12 - Buffalo 24 at N.Y. Jets 28 (OVER 42.5)
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Divisional Trends
Squaring off for the second time in a season can have differing results. On Thursday, we watched Indianapolis rally for its second win after beating Houston, 19-16. The combined 35 points went ‘under’ the closing number of 40. Should we expect more of the same for the rest of the week? With seven matchups left for Saturday, let’s recap the first meeting and look at the current form.
Oakland at Kansas City: The Chiefs ripped the Raiders 28-0 as visitors on Oct. 23.Oakland has watched its last five games go ‘over’ while Kansas City is on an 8-1 run to the ‘under.’ Including the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run between this pair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: These two met in Week 1 with the Jaguars earning a 16-14 victory at home. The Titans have seen their last eight games go ‘under’ the number. Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven in this series.
Miami at New England: The Patriots and Dolphins have seen their last three matchups go ‘over’ which includes this year’s Week 1 battle on MNF. New England beat Miami 38-24 on the road. The total is high (48) but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Pats have put up 30-plus in all of their last six games.
Cleveland at Baltimore: This matchup fits the System Plays (See Above). Four of the last five meetings here have gone ‘under’ the number. The Browns have been held to 10 points or less four times during this stretch. Baltimore beat Cleveland 24-10 on Dec. 4 this season.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: Cam Newton and the Panthers ripped the Buccaneers 38-19 in early December on the road. Carolina It wouldn’t be surprising to see a duplicate performance considering Tampa Bay has given up 32 PPG during its eight-game losing streak. Four of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.
San Francisco at Seattle: Who could forget the Ted Ginn game! Leading 19-17 late in the fourth quarter, the former Ohio State standout returned two touchdowns to give San Francisco a 33-17 victory. The 49ers got the cover and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 38. A lot has changed since that Week 1 affair. Seattle is on a 4-1 run to the ‘over’ while San Francisco is 4-1 to the ‘under.’ The total is 2-2-1 in the last five clashes between these squads.
Philadelphia at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings here, yet we’re looking at a total in the fifties (50.5). Both clubs have the weapons on offense to light it up, which you could see in the last two weeks. Philadelphia put up 26 and 45, while Dallas posted 34 and 31 points offensively.
Chicago at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)
Atlanta at New Orleans: (See Under the Lights)
Under the Lights
The primetime affairs went 1-1 last weekend, but the ‘under’ should’ve posted a 2-0 mark. Fortunately for some ‘over’ players, the Ravens added a late touchdown in their 34-14 loss to the Chargers, which helped eclipse the closing number of 45. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 17-12-1 (59%) in games under the lights this season.
Chicago at Green Bay: After watching the Packers put up a season-low 14 points last week against Kansas City, the oddsmakers might believe their offense isn’t invincible. This week’s total against the Bears is hovering around 43 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ Green Bay has seen all season long. Chicago has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the road, while Green Bay has posted a 5-1 mark to the ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. This head-to-head series has watched the ‘under’ cash in the last eight meetings.
Atlanta at New Orleans: Anytime the Saints play you have to look at the ‘over’ just based on their explosiveness. However the New Orleans juggernaut has been held to an average of 23.3 PPG in the last four encounters against Atlanta, which has resulted in a 3-1 record to the ‘under.’ This week’s number is hovering around 52. The Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in games with totals at 50 or higher.
Fearless Predictions
Ugh, we posted the bagel last week and the deficit was $430. Fortunately the profits still stand at $300 on the season. Hopefully the holidays treat us better. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: San Diego-Detroit 52
Best Under: Chicago-Green Bay 44
Best Team Total: Under Denver 22.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over San Diego-Detroit 43
Under Denver-Buffalo 50.5
Over Dallas-Philadelphia 41.5